Jun 1, 1981 - are planning an attack," or "Our alarm system is foolproof." For such tasks ..... temperatures, cloud amount, ceiling, visibility, precipitation occurrence ... massive data base has been published (Murphy & Winkler, 1977a;. U.S. Weather ..... support for the model. ..... Your chance of holding the winning ticket is.
LEVE&
I
Technical Report PTR-1002-S1-6
in
CALIBRATION OF PROBABILITIES:-
TIHE STAT! OF THE ART TO 1080
4
Sarah Lichtensteinl, Baruch Flschhoff and Lawrence D. Phil~p4.
I
Sponsored by OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH/ under Contract No. NOO14-SC-015 *
*
I.1201
to PERCEPTRONICS, INC
DECISION RESEARCH A Branch of P~rceptonle
6ERCTffR*ONICS,
m
Oak Stree
Eugene, Oregon
40
~C
'Technical Report PTR-1092-81-8
1
June 1981
CALIBRATION OF PROBABILITIES:
J
THE STATE OF THE ART TO 1980 Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff and Lawrence D. Phillips
Sponsored by OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH under Contract No. N00014-80-C-0150
&
to PERCEPTRONICS, INC
DECISION RESEARCH A Branch of Perceptronlcs
1201 Oak Street Eugene, Oregon 97401
Approved for Public Irelearn;
IPERCEPTRONICS -
6271 VARIEL AVENUES0 WOODLAND HILLS a CALIFORNIA 91367
0PHONE
(213) 884-7470
1
I
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
DD Form 1473
j
-
Page
Summary
List of TablesList of Figures Acknowledgements Introduction Discrete Propositions Meteorological Research Early Laboratory Research Signal Detection Research Recent Laboratory Research Overconfidence The Effect of Difficulty Effect of Base Rates Individual Differences
vii ix xi
Corrective Efforts Expertise Future Events
23 25 27
1 2 7 9 13 15 15 17 20 21
The Fractile Metod OtherMethods
29 35
Real Tasks with ExpertsSummary of Calibration with Uncertain Quantities Discussion Why Be Well Calibrated? Calibration as Cognitive Psychology Footnotes References Accession Distribution List 1HT1S GRA&I
37 38 39 39 42 45 46 53
DTIC VtB uxiennouncl d
jAV
lzbilltY Codos_
A1iad
6AL
unclassified SECURITY CLASSIPICATIOM
OF THIS1
PAGE Iofln Dote L111,e-4
AGEREAD REPOT DCUMNTA~ON
ISTRUCTIONS
REPOT DCUMNTATON AGEBEFORE
2. GOVT ACCESSION No. 3. RECIPIEZNT*S CATALOG NUMBER
07)
1. REPORT NUMBER
calibration of Probabilities:
*j
/
COMPLETING FORM
) Sarah /ichtensteil
_5xZ
nd
Baruch ischhoff
L
91. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Eugene, Oregon
1
tOT0*
un qP
of Naval Research North Quincy Street
Ioffice
*1800
Arlington, Virginia 14.
1
NMAE 59______________
22217
MONITORING AGENCY NAME & ADORESS(if different from Controlling Office)
