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a Simulation-Based Study Table S1 - PLOS

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Improved Farrington. 0.2%. 99.8%. 25.7%. 19.7%. 11.0%. 94.4%. 75.8%. 0.19. Original Farrington. 0.9%. 99.1%. 41.1%. 31.8%. 18.9%. 94.9%. 59.1%. 0.29.

Evaluation and Comparison of Statistical Methods for Early Temporal Detection of Outbreaks: a Simulation-Based Study Table S1: FPR, specicity, POD, POD1week, sensitivity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value and F1-measure for 12 evaluated methods and α = 0.001 (for past outbreak constant k1 = 0, 2, 3, 5, 10 and current outbreak k2 = 1 to 10 for POD and sensitivity). Method

Improved Farrington Original Farrington Periodic Poisson GLM Periodic Neg Binomial GLM CDC CUSUM CUSUM Rossi CUSUM GLM CUSUM GLM Rossi EARS C1 EARS C2 EARS C3

FPR

0.2% 0.9% 1.5% 0.1% 1.3% 44.0% 39.5% 44.2% 39.9% 4.0% 5.3% 5.2%

Specicity

99.8% 99.1% 98.6% 99.9% 98.1% 52.7% 57.6% 52.0% 56.8% 96.4% 95.3% 95.0%

POD

POD1week

25.7% 41.1% 52.1% 24.2% 32.2% 80.5% 77.0% 84.4% 81.1% 52.9% 57.0% 47.4%

19.7% 31.8% 42.6% 19.5% 9.8% 70.5% 65.9% 73.8% 69.5% 46.5% 46.8% 6.0%

Sensitivity

11.0% 18.9% 25.1% 10.1% 22.6% 75.4% 71.8% 79.5% 76.1% 18.7% 30.6% 29.2%

NPV?

94.4% 94.9% 95.2% 94.4% 95.1% 97.0% 96.9% 97.5% 97.3% 94.7% 95.4% 95.3%

PPV??

75.8% 59.1% 53.7% 88.7% 44.4% 9.5% 10.1% 9.9% 10.4% 25.4% 29.9% 27.8%

F1 -measure

0.19 0.29 0.34 0.18 0.30 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.22 0.30 0.28

Table 1: FPR, specicity, POD, POD1week, sensitivity, negative predictive value? , positive predictive value?? and F1 -measure for 12 evaluated methods and α = 0.001 (for past outbreak constant k1 = 0, 2, 3, 5, 10 and current outbreak k2 = 1 to 10 for POD and sensitivity).

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