Adaptation to Climate Change: A Spatial Challenge

Rob Roggema

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Spatial Challenge

fyj. Springer

Contents

Create Space for Climate! 1.1 Climate Change 1.2 The Dutch Approach 1.2.1 Dutch Climate Scenarios 1.2.2 The Dutch Adaptation Strategy 1.2.3 The Dutch Adaptation Agenda 1.3 The British Approach 1.3.1 UK-Climate Scenarios 1.3.2 Risk Management 1.3.3 Social and Cultural Scenarios 1.3.4 Built Environment 1.3.5 Urban Water Management . . 1.3.6 Energy Supply 1.3.7 Other Research Themes 1.3.8 Conclusion 1.4 Spanish Approach 1.4.1 PNACC 1.4.2 Implementation Through Work Programmes . . . . . . 1.4.3 Spatial Planning and Construction 1.4.4 Accents in the Spanish Adaptation Strategy 1.5 Climate Adaptation Strategy of Denmark 1.5.1 Objective of the Adaptation Strategy 1.5.2 Sectors that May be Affected by Climate Change . . . . 1.5.3 Cross-Cutting Initiatives 1.5.4 Spatial Planning 1.5.5 Character of the Danish Approach 1.6 Wise Adaptation to Climate Change, Japan 1.6.1 Impacts of Climate Change in Japan 1.6.2 Wise Adaptation 1.6.3 Future Challenges 1.6.4 The Japanese Approach

1 2 4 4 6 16 17 18 18 23 23 25 26 27 27 29 29 30 34 35 35 36 37 39 41 41 41 42 47 51 51

xiv

Contents

1.7

Finland 1.7.1 The Impact of and Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in Different Sectors 1.7.2 Cross-Sectoral Issues 1.7.3 The Finnish Strategy 1.8 Comparison of Strategies 1.9 Conclusions References

52 52 52 55 55 56 57

2

Design Adaptation to Climate Change 2.1 Design of a Climate Proof Netherlands 2.2 The Role of Spatial Planning 2.3 An Innovative Approach 2.4 Climate Atlases 2.4.1 First Results 2.5 Development of Design Principles 2.5.1 Meaning for Nature and Agriculture 2.5.2 Meaning for Spatial Patterns 2.5.3 Time 2.6 The Groningen Case 2.6.1 Starting Point Groningen: Two Scenarios 2.6.2 Knowledge of Climate 2.7 Consequences for Different Functions 2.7.1 Nature and Agriculture 2.7.2 An Offensive Coastal Defence 2.7.3 Urban Developments 2.8 Idea-Map Climate Adapted Groningen 2.9 Chinese Demonstration Projects 2.9.1 The Longhu Project, Chongqing 2.9.2 Yu'an and Anjing in Yunyan District, Guiyang 2.9.3 Vanke's Stream Valley, Shenzhen 2.9.4 Chinese Experience 2.10 Chances of a Design Approach 2.10.1 Implementation References

59 60 61 62 62 67 70 72 73 74 75 76 77 80 80 84 86 87 89 91 96 101 107 109 109 110

3

The Coast 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Dutch Coastal Defence 3.2.1 A forever Changing Coastline 3.2.2 Dutch Weak Links 3.2.3 Integrated Development Perspective for the South Holland Coast 3.2.4 ComCoast 3.2.5 Land in Sea! 3.2.6 Groningen Combinatory of Coastal Defences

113 114 114 114 116 117 118 125 131

Contents

xv

3.2.7 Attention for Safety 3.2.8 The Dutch'Delta Commission' 3.2.9 Synthesis 3.3 Hamburg - Hafencity 3.3.1 Masterplan 3.3.2 Dealing with Potential Flooding 3.4 Thames Gateway - London 3.4.1 Thames Estuary 2100 3.4.2 Delivery Plan for the Gateway 3.4.3 Element in the Gateway: Thames Barrier 3.4.4 A Floating City 3.4.5 Three of a Kind 3.5 New Orleans 3.5.1 Coast 2050 3.5.2 US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) 3.5.3 State of Louisiana Master Plan 3.5.4 The MIR Project 3.6 Conclusion References

134 136 145 146 146 147 151 151 152 154 156 160 162 162 165 170 176 179 180

4

Water Management 4.1 Water Policies in The Netherlands 4.1.1 Risk 4.1.2 Water Policy in the 21st Century 4.1.3 Dutch National Water Vision 4.1.4 Water Safety 4.2 SAFER and ELLA Projects 4.2.1 ELLA 4.2.2 SAFER 4.3 Flood Risk 4.4 Building a House 4.4.1 Type of Water 4.4.2 A Japanese Experience 4.4.3 Types of Houses 4.4.4 Combination of House and Water Typologies 4.5 Conclusion References

183 184 184 185 187 187 188 188 190 192 193 198 200 202 207 208 209

5

Ecology 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Directives 5.2.1 Bird's Directive 5.2.2 Habitat Directive 5.3 Natura2000 5.4 Dutch Spatial-Ecological Concepts 5.4.1 Ecological Main Structure 5.4.2 National Landscapes

211 212 212 213 213 216 220 220 224

Contents

5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11

Effects of Climate Change on Nature Sensitivity Dilemma: Strict Rules or Flexibility Adaptation Strategies The BRANCH Project Use of BRANCH Principles in Groningen Province Climate Buffers 5.11.1 River Landscape 5.11.2 High Parts of the Netherlands (Higher Sand and Hilly Landscapes) 5.11.3 Lower Parts of the Netherlands (Lower Peat Landscapes) 5.11.4 The Coast, the Wadden and Estuaries (Estuaries and Dunes) 5.12 Conclusion References

225 226 230 230 237 240 242 244

Energy Potentials 6.1 Introduction 6.1.1 Towards a Sustainable Provision of Energy 6.1.2 The Oil Price 6.1.3 Predicting the Price of Oil 6.1.4 Consequences 6.1.5 Capitalisation of Land and Real Estate 6.1.6 Implications to Commuters 6.1.7 Spatial Solutions 6.1.8 Different Energy Resources 6.1.9 Sustainable Development 6.2 Energy Potential Mapping 6.2.1 Background 6.2.2 The Methodology of Mapping Energy Potentials . . . . 6.3 The Local Energy Toolbox 6.3.1 Climate and Energy 6.3.2 The Sun 6.3.3 Electricity 6.3.4 Heat 6.3.5 Wind 6.3.6 Water 6.3.7 Biomass and Waste 6.3.8 The Underground 6.3.9 Exchanging and Cascading Heat and Cold 6.4 Example: Energy Potentials of the Province of Groningen . . . . 6.4.1 Electricity 6.4.2 Heat and Cold

253 254 254 255 258 258 260 261 262 263 263 264 264 265 266 266 267 267 269 269 271 273 275 277 280 281 282

246 246 247 248 250

Contents

6.4.3 CO 2 Capture 6.4.4 An Overlay of Potentials 6.4.5 Towards a Sustainable Provincial Plan 6.4.6 Outcomes of the Groningen POP Study 6.5 Conclusions 6.5.1 Considerations References

282 283 285 285 285 286 286

The Urban Environment 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Occupation Strategy 7.3 Precipitation 7.3.1 Thames Gateway 7.3.2 Urban Flood Management in Dordrecht 7.3.3 Zuidplaspolder 7.3.4 Building with Water in Haarlemmermeer 7.4 Heat in the City 7.4.1 Non-physical Heat Effects 7.5 Good Practices Guide (UK) 7.5.1 The Centre of Bedford 7.5.2 Isle of Dogs in the City of London 7.5.3 Urban Expansion: Isle of Sheppey 7.6 Concluding Remarks References

289 290 290 292 294 295 300 304 305 309 309 310 311 313 315 317

Landscape 2.0 8.1 In Patagonia 8.2 Web 2.0 8.2.1 A New Energy Order? 8.2.2 Landscape 2.0 8.3 Challenges of Complexity in Planning 8.3.1 A Society in Turbulent Circumstances 8.3.2 Internet-Economy: The Turbulence Driver 8.3.3 The State of Today's Spatial Planning Practice 8.3.4 New Environment for Planning: Small Adjustments Made 8.3.5 Increase Resilience 8.3.6 Complex Adaptive Systems 8.3.7 Typology of Complex Systems 8.3.8 Tipping Points 8.3.9 A New Design Paradigm, Swarm Planning 8.4 The Groningen Case 8.4.1 Understanding the System: Mapping Climate and Energy Potentials 8.4.2 Improving Resilience: Use of Swarm Planning Paradigm

319 320 321 322 323 324 324 325 327 328 330 331 331 333 335 337 340 340

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8.4.3 Strategic Interventions: The Groningen Impulses . . . . 8.4.4 Steer the Swarm 8.4.5 The Groningen Case Discussed 8.5 Conclusions References

Contents

340 346 346 348 350

Conclusion

353

Index

357