Boosting flood warning schemes with fast emulator of ...
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Boosting flood warning schemes with fast emulator of ...
2D hydrodynamic simulators. ⢠Emulators. ⢠training data derived by detailed simulators ... 2D hydrodynamic simulator â FLOW-R2D model ... Gaussian Process.
EmuMore Boosting flood warning schemes with fast emulator of detailed hydrodynamic models Vasilis Bellos1,2, Juan Pablo Carbajal3, Joao Paulo Leitao3 1CH2M,
UK 2National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Greece 3Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and technology (EAWAG), Switzerland
Flood warning schemes • Predicting time response for several water levels at critical points • Combining models • • • •
rainfall-runoff dam-breach wind wave hydrodynamic
• Fast and accurate results • Computational burden • 2D hydrodynamic simulators
• Emulators • training data derived by detailed simulators
Posing the problem • Developing an emulator system • flood warning after a dam break • 2D hydrodynamic simulator FLOW-R2D model
• Output • time response for water levels at critical points
• Training data set 100 runs (uniform sampling)
Calibration phase 3-input emulator
Calibration phase 2-input emulator
Validation phase 3-input emulator
Validation phase 2-input emulator
Response time 1-input emulator
Conclusion • Three-input emulator • • • •
no measurements required adaptive tool for calibration, uncertainty quantification etc. less accurate results larger sample of runs
• Combining two-input with one-input emulator • • • •
requires measurements non-adaptive tool more accurate results less sample of runs
Partners & Acknowledgements
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 607000.
