Competitive balance

Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage 20002014 Julio del Corral (University of Castilla-La Mancha, SPAIN)

VI European Conference on Sport Economics Antwerpen, September 2014

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• Why UEFA Champions League is getting “boring”? COMPETITIVE BALANCE IS DECLINING ???


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• Competitive balance is a concept that could have several interpretations:  Continuity of performance from season to season  Closeness of a league competition • If the competitive balance in a league is low, fan interest in the weaker teams will fall and, eventually, fan interest in the stronger teams will also decline (Humpreys, 2002)


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• Most articles that analyze the closeness of a league competition have used some dispersion criteria of the results such as:  Standard deviation of points (Koning, 2000)  Standard deviation of win percentages (Zimbalist, 2002)  Standard deviation ratio (Humphreys, 2002)  Gini coefficient (Schmidt 2001)  Hirschman-Herfindal index (Addesa, 2011)  C5 concentration ratio (Naghshbandi et al., 2011)  Special Concentration Ratio (Manasis et al., 2006)  Relative entropy (Horowitz, 1997) VI European Conference on Sport Economics Antwerpen, September 2014

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• The first exception of using the results to calculate competitive balance was Paul et al. (2009) in a paper entitled: “Using betting market odds to measure the uncertainty of outcome in Major League Baseball”. • Subsequently, Bowman et al. (2012) developed several measures of competitive balance based on point spreads. • The objective of this paper is to further examine the idea of using betting odds to measure competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League.


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion



Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion




Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

Group stage

22 teams qualified in advance: 3-Spain, England, Germany9 2- Italy, Portugal, Fance6 1- Ukraine, Russia, Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium, Greece, Switzerland7

10 teams qualified from knockout qualifying rounds and a play-off round


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

 Teams are ordered by the UEFA coefficient (80% team past results in UEFA competitions+ 20% other teams past result from country).

 Hence, 4 pots with 8 teams in each one.


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

Group stage Group A 4 teams Group C 4 teams Group E 4 teams Group G 4 teams

Round of 16 Group A 2 teams Group C 2 teams Group E 2 teams Group G 2 teams

Group B 4 teams Group D 4 teams Group F 4 teams Group H 4 teams

Quarterfinals

Group B 2 teams Group D 2 teams 8 teams Group F 2 teams Group H 2 teams VI European Conference on Sport Economics Antwerpen, September 2014

METHODOLOGY


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

 Odds are converted into probabilities.  Afterwords, it can be calculated the probability from betting odds for each possible number of points.


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

.1 0

.02 .04 .06 .08

Probability

.12 .14 .16

Real Madrid density function 2013/2014

0

3

6

9 Points

12

15


18

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• Plotting the density functions of all teams in a group it is constructed a graph that enables the analysis of competitive balance. Closer density functions imply greater competitive balance within the group.


RESULTS


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

2000-2001


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

2013-2014


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

2000-2001

4

4

0

2013-2014

1

5

2


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

6

9 Points Second

12

15

Third

.12 .1 0

Fourth

3

6

First

UCL Competitive Balance 2005/2006

9 Points Second

12

15

Third

18 Fourth

6

First

9 Points Second

12

15

Third

.12 9 Points Second

12

.04

15

Third

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Fourth

9 Points Second

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.12

.12

.1 .04

.06

Probability

.08

.08 18

6


.02 0

0 15

3 First

.02

.04

.06

Probability Third

0

Fourth

.1

.12 .1

Second

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Fourth

.1 6


.08 .06 .04

9 Points

Third

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.02 3 First

.02

First

6

15

0 0

Fourth

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3

Second

12

.06

Probability

18


0

9 Points

.08

.1 .02 0 3

6


.08 .04

.06

Probability 0 0

3 First

.12

.12 .1 .08 .06 .04

0


.02

Probability

.04 .02

18

0

.02 0

0

3 First

Probability

.06

Probability

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.1 .04

.06

Probability

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.1 .08 .06 .04 .02

Probability

0

Discussion


.12


.12


Results

0

3 First

6

9 Points Second

12 Third

15

18 Fourth

0

3 First

6

9 Points Second


12 Third

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18 Fourth

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• What about the expectations on this season (2014-2015)?


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

2000-2001

4

4

0

2013-2014

1

5

2

2014-2015

2

3

3


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

.06 .04 0

.02

Probability

.08

.1

.12


0

3

6

First

9 Points Second

12

15

Third

18 Fourth

.06 .04 .02 0

Probability

.08

.1

.12


0

3 First

6

9 Points Second

12 Third

15

18 Fourth


Discussion

DISCUSSION


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• There are groups with good competitive balance but there are others with very low competitive balance in the same season it has to be revised the UEFA coefficient construction. • The competitive balance is clearly decreasing (becoming boring??):  Change the format of the competition as basketball or handball.  Difficult the classification of “bad teams”.  Increase revenue sharing, draft of non european players.  Financial Fair Play. VI European Conference on Sport Economics Antwerpen, September 2014

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results


Discussion

Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion

• There are groups with good competitive balance but there are others with very low competitive balance in the same season it has to be revised the UEFA coefficient construction. • The competitive balance is clearly decreasing (becoming boring??):  Change the format of the competition as basketball or handball.  Difficult the classification of “bad teams”.  Increase revenue sharing


Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion



Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion



Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion



Introduction

UEFA CL

Methodology

Results

Discussion



Thanks!!! E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @jdelcorraltm
