THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING SEA ICE David Barber, Louis Fortier, and Michael Byers In the disaster blockbuster, “The Day After Tomorrow,” the shrinking of polar ice caused by climate change unleashes an extreme weather Armaggedon which, among other things, sees the Statue of Liberty engulfed by a tidal wave. The predictions offered here by David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers are less cataclysmic but equally compelling. In relaying the scientific evidence and outlining the ecological, economic and political impacts of polar climate change, Barber, Fortier and Byers present a chilling case for heading off doomsday. Dans The Day After Tomorrow, la fonte de la calotte glaciaire provoque un raz-demarée sans précédent qui engloutit notamment la statue de la liberté. Certes moins catastrophiques, les prédictions que font ici David Barber, Louis Fortier et Michael Byers n’en donnent pas moins froid dans le dos. S’appuyant sur des observations scientifiques, ils inventorient les répercussions écologiques, économiques et politiques des changements du climat polaire et brossent de ses conséquences un tableau franchement alarmant.
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or centuries, significant resources have been expended in search of the Northwest Passage, or as Pierre Berton once called it; the “Arctic Grail.” Franklin, Davis, Ray, Baffin, Amendment, Blot, Monk, and Perry are just a few of the names that have gone down in history for their quest for the shortest route from Europe to Asia. It was sea ice that foiled the best laid routes and provided the suspense and intrigue we are all now familiar with. The waxing and waning of sea ice movement in the northern hemisphere has long created seasons when a ship could sail easily through Baffin Bay, while in other years “rivers” of ice flushed down from the Lincoln Sea towards the Labrador coast. The high variability experienced by these explorers was the norm of the day. However, things do appear to be changing, and these trends are cause for concern. In recent years, scientists, through the media, have been informing the public about developments concerning sea ice in our northern hemisphere. Articles such as “As Polar Ice Turns to Water, Dreams of Treasure Abound” (the New York Times) recall the economic forces at play several centuries ago, while making a scientifically based prediction that the Arctic ocean may become the next, and likely one of the last, of our great oceans to exploit, conserve and protect.
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ea ice occurs at both poles as a result of large scale variations in solar insolation (incoming solar radiation or the sun’s rays) and changes in oceanic and atmospheric cir-
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culation driven by the seasonal global balance in net energy. An oscillating planetary energy balance is established with net positive surplus at the equator and net loss at the poles. Seasonal modulation of this general pattern is driven by the fact that the planet’s axis of rotation is 23.4° offset from the perpendicular. This means that solar insolation is much larger at the equator than at the poles, and this sets up (at least in a first order fashion) the seasons that create polar sea ice. It also results in an overall planetary energy balance with opposing signs at each pole, which helps to establish a planetary-wide circulation of heat from the equator poleward and vice-versa. In the Arctic, sea ice forms annually throughout most of the area north of the Arctic Circle whenever the ocean dips below -1.8°C. Maximum volume of ice occurs around the end of March, with an area of about 14 million km2. Perennial ice occurs throughout the Canada and Arctic basins in the summer, and annual ice grows over the shallow continental shelves northward to meet the southern advance of the perennial pack. Reduction in this maximal extent occurs throughout the summer season until a minimum of about 7 million km2 is reached, sometime around the end of September. Climate models converge on a single feature: they predict the first and strongest signals of global-scale climate change to occur in the high latitudes of our planet. These models predict a reduction in sea ice extent over the next several decades, resulting in a seasonally ice-free Arctic as
The incredible shrinking sea ice ice will be less of a problem for marine vessel transport if the current trends continue. Many researchers believe that the Northeast Passage will be one of the first to open, since the remnant pack tends to shift toward North America under current forcing. Two of us were in fact aboard a Russian ice-breaker in September 2005, and there was no ice of any significance to shipping along
nurse their pups in dens built inside sea-ice ridges. Juvenile Arctic cod, which live in the anfractuosities of the pack where they are protected from their predators and find abundant crustacean prey, synthesize antifreeze proteins that prevent their blood from freezing at the sub-zero temperatures prevailing in the ice. Key Arctic copepods have developed sophisticated reproduction strategies to match the hatching of their eggs with Climate models converge on a single feature: they predict the the short season of production of ice algae. In addition first and strongest signals of global-scale climate change to to microalgae, bacteria occur in the high latitudes of our planet. These models dwell in the high-salinity predict a reduction in sea ice extent over the next several brine channels among the sea-ice matrix and are active decades, resulting in a seasonally ice-free Arctic as early as 2050. Observational studies, based on the passive microwave at temperatures as low as -22 C. Life in the Arctic seas satellite record, confirm these predictions for both rates of begins in mid-spring, when reduction and, to a certain extent, geographic location. the snow covers become sufficiently thin to allow the entire route of the Northeast enough sunlight to reach the base of record being that of 2005. It is imporPassage (between Norway and Alaska). the ice. The light reaching the ice-water tant to note that this reduction repreThe situation with multiyear sea interface triggers the growth of icesents a switch from perennial ice (i.e., ice in the Northwest Passage is somedwelling microalgae. As the ice cover multiyear ice) to annual ice (i.e., firstwhat more complex. Historically, mulbreaks up in early summer, sunlight year ice). The issue of a reduction in ice tiyear ice has moved into the penetrates deeper into the ocean and thickness (volume), although more archipelago through the channels on free-floating microalgae known as phydifficult to measure, also suggests an the western side of the archipelago toplankton start blooming. Minute overall reduction. Recent results pro(e.g., Amundsen Gulf, McClure Strait crustaceans called copepods (from 0.2 vide compelling evidence for an overand small channels on the western to 2 cm long) emerge from hibernation all northern hemisphere volume edge of the QEIs). When the multiyear at depth to graze on the ice algae and decrease of 32 percent, most of which pack regularly extended southwards to phytoplankton. The copepods are resulted from a reduction in thickness the Tuktoyuktuk Peninsula we could preyed upon by the ubiquitous Arctic of ice over 2 m (i.e., multiyear). This find multiyear sea ice in Amundsen cod, a small (25-30 cm) sluggish cousin coincided with an increase in the Gulf. In recent years, the pack ice edge of the Atlantic cod that in turn is the extent of open water and young ice of has retreated north, and it now lies at main staple of seals, belugas, narwhals between 20 and 30 percent. the northern limit of McClure Strait. and many species of sea birds. At the Minimum sea ice concentration Once this edge retreats beyond the top of the food chain, the polar bear (SIC) is defined as 15 percent concenentrance way to McClure Strait we can preys almost exclusively on the ring tration, and is computed for the end of expect a dramatic reduction in the seal, whereas man hunts any large prey, September of each year using the amount of multiyear sea ice moving including the polar bear. The fat SMMR and SSM/I passive microwave into the Northwest Passage. Given the reserves accumulated in summer by the record (National Snow and Ice Data current trajectory, this will likely hapsmall herbivore copepods sustain them Centre [NSIDC]). pen in the next decade. during the long winter months and The timing of the reduction in sustain their predators throughout the the perennial ice cover is important, annual cycle. As their icy habitat both from biophysical and sociofter a million years of evolution, shrinks and thins, these highly specialeconomic perspectives. The barriers Arctic species present unique feaized organisms face the double threat to navigation have historically been tures and life cycles that reflect adaptaof displacement by less specialized temcaused by multiyear sea ice, because it tion to life on, in and under sea ice. perate species, and extinction. At the is thicker and harder than first-year The polar bear is impressively suited to root of the food chain, ice algae are sea ice. The decrease in the summer detect and kill seals in the whiteness of more abundant, more productive and minimum means that multiyear sea the pack ice. Seals give birth to and early as 2050. Observational studies, based on the passive microwave satellite record, confirm these predictions for both rates of reduction and, to a certain extent, geographic location. We lose, on average, about 74,000 km2 of sea ice extent each year, and we have lost about 2,000,000 km2 since 1979. The record of minimums has become rather common in the instrumental record, with the minimum on
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David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers more diversified in the thin, soft and porous annual ice than in the thick, hard and dense multiyear ice. Thus, in the short term, the replacement of multi year ice by first-year ice and a general thinning of the snow and ice covers could lead to higher micro algal production. In the longer term, the more productive phytoplankton will replace the ice algae as the ice season shortens and the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in summer. Fewer ice algae and a longer phytoplankton bloom will mean an overall more productive peripheral Arctic Ocean.
immigrated fish will be slow and the stocks will be highly vulnerable to over fishing. The richer, biologically more productive surface waters of an ice-free Artic Ocean will contribute to the sequestration of atmospheric carbon, thus mopping up some of the greenhouse gases emitted by human industry. On the other hand, sea-ice reflects 90 percent of the sun’s radiation into space, compared to less than 30 percent for open waters. Therefore, an ice-free Arctic Ocean will absorb much more heat from the sun, accel-
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nvironmentalists will rightly perceive it as a tragic loss to the global ecosystem. Neo-liberals already see it as a potential Klondike. In any case, there is no doubt that the unregulated exploitation of the new or newly accessible resources of the Arctic will end in catastrophe, as it has in other oceans. Hence the importance of Canada strongly asserting its Arctic sovereignty and its authority to control and manage the exploitation of the resources of its Arctic shelf, including the straits of the Canadian Archipelago. In addition to Therefore, an ice-free Arctic Ocean fisheries, changing ice condiowever, a shift in micro will absorb much more heat from tions in the Northwest Passage provide a sea route algal production toward an the sun, accelerating the warming could between Asia and Europe that earlier and longer phytoplankton bloom will also spell the of the Northern Hemisphere, and all is 7,000 kilometres shorter replacement of Arctic copepods preliminary calculations indicate that than the route through the Panama Canal. The passage by Atlantic cousins that are the increase in the radiative heat also accommodate superalready becoming common in balance of the Arctic will far exceed could tankers and container ships Arctic seas. Coupled with a any reduction of the greenhouse that are too large for the canal. reduction in sea ice habitat and a effect. The on-going reduction of Some Japanese and American warming of the ocean surface layer, the “atlantification” of the sea ice presages a biologically more companies are already building vessels. But, plankton will have a tremendous productive and more diverse Arctic ice-strengthened any shipping involves the risk impact on the capacity of the Arctic cod to resist displacement Ocean that will, however, differ little of accidents, particularly oil from the northernmost reaches of spills, and authority to reguby temperate fishes. Such a dislate foreign vessels in the pasplacement is already observed in the Atlantic. There is no common could soon be lost, since northern Hudson Bay, where a scale against which to compare the sage any foreign ship that transits shift in the diet of seabirds from loss of biodiversity and the gain in without seeking permission nearly pure Arctic cod in the biological productivity that will undermines Canada’s sover1980s to a 50-50 mixture of cod and capelin nowadays has been result from the “atlantification” of eignty claim. The history of Canada’s attributed to the lengthening of the Arctic Ocean. claim to the Northwest Passage the ice-free season. Less ice habierating the warming of the Northern is fraught with confusion and indecitat and fewer Arctic cod will also affect Hemisphere, and all preliminary calsion. Initially, it seemed that title over the ring seal, potentially bringing about culations indicate that the increase in the waterway did not matter, because its replacement by more coastal species the radiative heat balance of the of the nearly impenetrable ice. Still, a such as the harbour seal, with devastatArctic will far exceed any reduction of claim to the water was at least implicit ing consequences for the polar bear and the greenhouse effect. The ongoing in an assertion, first made in the late the traditional hunting activities of the reduction of sea ice presages a biolog19th century, that Canada owned Inuit. ically more productive and more Given the observed rate of the everything between the 60th and 141st diverse Arctic Ocean that will, howevnorthward progression of temperate meridians of longitude all the way to er, differ little from the northernmost fish in response to the warming of the the North Pole. But, apart from the reaches of the Atlantic. There is no Atlantic Ocean, new fisheries Soviet Union, which attempted a simicommon scale against which to comresources could develop rapidly over lar claim, other countries rejected the pare the loss of biodiversity and the the next century in an ice-free Arctic sector theory. gain in biological productivity that Ocean. However, given the low temIn 1969, an American oil company will result from the “atlantification” peratures that will always prevail in sent an ice-strengthened tanker, the SS of the Arctic Ocean. polar waters, the growth of newly Manhattan, on a test voyage through the
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The incredible shrinking sea ice
Is the polar ice cap melting? It certainly is shrinking, with more open water and serious implications for the Inuit way of life, for the food chain from top to bottom, for the environment and Canada's sovereignty.
passage. The company, which was cooperating closely with the US government, made a point of not seeking permission from Canada. Ottawa made a point of granting permission, and even sent an icebreaker to assist, and subsequently argued that the unsolicited permission prevented the voyage from undermining its claim. A more convincing defence of sovereignty came from an unexpected source. As the SS Manhattan ploughed through the ice near Resolute Bay, two Inuit hunters drove their dogsleds into its path. The vessel ground to a halt, until the hunters — having made their point — moved aside. The following year, Parliament adopted the Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act, imposing stringent safety and environmental require-
ments on all shipping within 100 nautical miles of the Arctic coast. The claimed right to pollution prevention jurisdiction was contrary to international law, which at the time did not recognize coastal state rights beyond the territorial sea. But it was subsequently made legal by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which allows coastal states to impose laws against maritime pollution out to 200 nautical miles when virtually year-round ice creates exceptional navigational hazards. A second piece of legislation extended the territorial sea from 3 to 12 nautical miles. This move was less controversial, since 60 other countries had made similar claims. Its immediate relevance lay in the fact
that the passage, at its narrowest points, is less than 24 nautical miles across. As the Canadian government explained, the overlapping territorial seas meant that foreign vessels making the passage could be subject to the full range of its domestic laws. At the same time, Canada began arguing that the straits and channels between the islands were “historic internal waters.” This argument rested on the fact that most of the archipelago had been mapped by British explorers prior to the transfer of title, and few nonconsensual transits had occurred. Canada also pointed out that the Inuit — who are Canadian citizens — had travelled and lived on the ice for millennia. There was, however, some conPOLICY OPTIONS DECEMBER 2005 - JANUARY 2006
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David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers know the land and ice and provide an effective — if slow-moving — searchand-rescue capability, yet their abilities are dwarfed by the expanse in which they operate: Canada is the world’s second largest country, and more than 40 percent of it is Arctic. In practice, neither fisheries laws nor the Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act can be applied. And as the ice disappears, Canada’s In practice, neither fisheries laws nor the Arctic Waters sovereignty claim is vulneraPollution Prevention Act can be applied. And as the ice ble to more foreign vessels, disappears, Canada’s sovereignty claim is vulnerable to more including submarines, using the Northwest Passage withforeign vessels, including submarines, using the Northwest Passage without seeking permission — as they might wish to out seeking permission — as they might wish to do in do in order to evade Canada’s environmental laws. order to evade Canada’s environmental laws. Prime Minister Paul Martin Claims Agreement, whereby the two expanses of high seas, they are declared in November 2004 that soverCanadian government and the Inuit open to foreign shipping with almost eignty “is an issue which is becoming affirmed that “Canada’s sovereignty no restrictions. More than commercial even more important, given climate over the waters of the arctic archipelago shipping was at issue. During the Cold change and the opening of the is supported by Inuit use and occupanWar, the United States was concerned Northwest Passage to transportation, cy.” The historic consolidation arguto maintain open access for its Navy, and the environmental problems that ment is also supported by several especially its submarines. Under the law may flow from that.” Some steps are judgments of the International Court of of the sea, submarines may pass now being taken. Auroras are being Justice. However, Canada’s overall through an international strait without equipped with infra-red sensors, and claim is weakened by the fact that it surfacing or otherwise alerting the adjaunmanned aerial vehicles are being lacks enforcement capability. Despite cent coastal state or states, something acquired to provide long-range surveilhaving the world’s longest coastline, not permitted in territorial waters. lance at lower cost. As of 2006, much of it ice-covered most of the time, In 1985, the US Coastguard iceRadarsat-2, a federally funded remote Canada has never possessed an icebreaker Polar Sea sailed through the passensing satellite will provide up-tobreaker capable of operating in the sage, again without seeking permission. date, high resolution imaging on Arctic year-round. In 1985, the Ottawa once again made a point of grantdemand — giving Canada the ability Canadian government announced that ing permission; it even asked to place sevto track surface vessels from space. Yet it would build a powerful all-season iceeral “observers” on board. Remarkably, more needs to be done. breaker. But fiscal restraint quickly Washington acceded to the request, Canada offers a registration service became a greater priority than soverstrengthening Canada’s argument that to all ships entering its northern waters. eignty, and the contract was cancelled. the transit was consensual, and even But the service has always been volunCanada’s does have a fleet of promised to provide advance notice of tary. Making registration in the Arctic Aurora patrol aircraft which were are any future transits by Coastguard vessels. mandatory would bolster sovereignty. now used mostly for fisheries protecYet it still made a point of publicly disThe Department of National tion. But only one or two flights per puting the sovereignty claim. Following Defence is deliberating whether to year are devoted to “sovereignty asserthe voyage of the Polar Sea, Canada again install high-frequency surface-wave tion.” The Canadian Airborne modified its legal position. Central to the radar at the entrances to the passage. Regiment was once able to deploy new position was the drawing of straight The time for deliberation is over. The 1,000 soldiers on short notice anybaselines linking the outer headlands of information obtained would be useful where in Canada, but it was disbanded the archipelago. to the Canadian Forces and Coastguard after paratroopers tortured and killed a and the presence of the installations Somali teenager. Canada’s sovereignty s the result of a decision by the would strengthen Canada’s legal posiclaim is defended primarily by the International Court of Justice in a tion. At least two all-season Arctic iceCanadian Rangers: 1,600 part-time dispute between Britain and Norway, breakers are needed — one each for the volunteers who live in 58 hamlets scatstrait baselines had become a legally eastern and western Arctic. tered across the North. The Rangers accepted means for determining the tradiction between the territorial sea and historic internal waters arguments, since internal waters are by definition not territorial sea. The confusion gave strength to the US position, which holds that the passage is an “international strait.” International straits are narrower in breadth than the adjoining territorial seas but, because they join
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extent of coastal state jurisdiction along fragmented coastlines. Canada invoked its prior claim of historic internal waters in support of its new baselines, arguing that its title to the waters within the baselines — which by definition are internal waters — was consolidated by historic usage. The argument was reinforced in 1993 by the Nunavut Land
The incredible shrinking sea ice One or more of these vessels could be outfitted to conduct the types of science currently being done aboard the NGCC Amundsen. Several helicopters should be based near the northwest passage to provide search-and-rescue and ensure that suspicious vessels are boarded and inspected. Most importantly, it is time to persuade Washington to change its outdated position. Today, the United States is more concerned about terrorists finding a back door to North America, or rogue states using the oceans to transport weapons of mass destruction, than it is about foreign submarines. In the Arctic, these new threats could just as easily be handled by a strengthened Canadian Coastguard and Navy, whose abilities would be enhanced if Canada’s domestic laws could fully be applied.
It does not serve the interests of either country to have foreign vessels shielded from those laws, and most of international law, by maintaining that the passage is an international strait. Given what we know about feedbacks in the Arctic system, it is increasingly likely that sea ice reduction will not be reversed. The minimum we reached in 2005 has never before been seen in any of our instrumental records and the projection of a seasonally ice free Arctic by about 2050 has not been seen on planet Earth for at least a million years. As a polar country, Canada has a particular interest and responsibility to protect the fragile Arctic and its indigenous peoples. But that should not distract from the more urgent policy imperative: reduce greenhouse gas emissions
so as to slow and eventually halt climate change, before it is too late. The Arctic is our canary in the coal mine. David Barber is associate dean (research); Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of Environment, Earth, and Resources; Canada Research Chair in Arctic System Science; and director, Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba. Louis Fortier is a professor of biology and Canada Research Chair on the Response of Marine Arctic Ecosystems to Climate Change, ArcticNet, Department of Biology, Université Laval. Michael Byers is Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law, University of British Columbia. This paper is a contribution of ArcticNet, a new network of centres of excellence (www.arcticnet-ulaval.ca/)
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