RESEARCH Derivation, validation, and evaluation of a new QRISK model to estimate lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease: cohort study using QResearch database Julia Hippisley-Cox, professor of clinical epidemiology and general practice,1 Carol Coupland, associate professor in medical statistics,1 John Robson, senior lecturer general practice,2 Peter Brindle, research and evaluation programme director3 1 Division of Primary Care, University Park, Nottingham NG2 7RD, UK 2 Centre for Health Sciences, Queen Mary’s School of Medicine and Dentistry, London E1 2AT, UK 3 Avon Primary Care Research Collaborative, NHS Bristol, South Plaza, Bristol BS1 3NX, UK Correspondence to: Julia HippisleyCox
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Cite this as: BMJ 2010;341:c6624 doi:10.1136/bmj.c6624
BMJ | ONLINE FIRST | bmj.com
ABSTRACT Objective To develop, validate, and evaluate a new QRISK model to estimate lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. Design Prospective cohort study with routinely collected data from general practice. Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations accounting for competing risks. Measures of calibration and discrimination in the validation cohort. Setting 563 general practices in England and Wales contributing to the QResearch database. Subjects Patients aged 30–84 years who were free of cardiovascular disease and not taking statins between 1 January 1994 and 30 April 2010: 2 343 759 in the derivation dataset, and 1 267 159 in the validation dataset. Main outcomes measures Individualised estimate of lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease accounting for smoking status, ethnic group, systolic blood pressure, ratio of total cholesterol:high density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, family history of coronary heart disease in first degree relative aged