Development and validation of a prognostic scoring model for
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Development and validation of a prognostic scoring model for
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Kumagai et al. BMC Infectious Diseases (2017) 17:436 DOI 10.1186/s12879-017-2544-0
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Development and validation of a prognostic scoring model for Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease: an observational cohort study Shogo Kumagai1*, Akihiro Ito1, Toru Hashimoto1, Satoshi Marumo2, Hironobu Tokumasu3, Aya Kotani2, Haruka Yamaki2, Masahiro Shirata2, Koji Furuuchi1, Motonari Fukui2 and Tadashi Ishida1
Abstract Background: Patients with Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) lung disease (LD) have a heterogeneous prognosis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic scoring model for these patients using independent risk factors for survival. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients with MAC-LD from two hospitals (cohort 1, n = 368; cohort 2, n = 118). Cohort 1 was evaluated using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent risk factors for overall survival (OS). A prognostic scoring model composed of these factors was developed, and cohort 1 was stratified into three groups according to risk using the log-rank test. Finally, the prognostic scoring model was validated using the data of cohort 2. Results: Seven independent risk factors for OS were selected from cohort 1, including the male sex, age ≥ 70 years, the presence of a malignancy, body mass index
