The application of the methodology will be demonstrated using ..... between traffic and emission models that could be used to reliably transfer .... .ptvag.com/software/transportation-planning-traffic-engineering/software-system-solutions/visum/.
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK$UHQD±(XURSH
'HYHORSPHQWRIDPHWKRGRORJ\DQGWRROWRHYDOXDWHWKH LPSDFWRI,&7PHDVXUHVRQURDGWUDQVSRUWHPLVVLRQV =LVVLV6DPDUDVD /HRQLGDV1W]LDFKULVWRVD*LDQIUDQFR%XU]LRE6LOYDQD7RIIRORF 5HLQKDUG7DWVFKOG-RDFKLP0HUW]H$QGUHV0RQ]RQI D
$ULVWRWOH8QLYHUVLW\RI7KHVVDORQLNL$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ%XLOGLQJ8QLYHUVLW\&DPSXV7KHVVDORQLNL*UHHFH E &HQWUR5LFHUFKH)LDW6&S$6WUDGD7RULQR2UEDVVDQR,WDO\ F ,9(&26S$9LD3XJOLD7RULQR,WDO\ G $9//LVW*PE++DQV/LVW3ODW]*UD]$XVWULD H %HUQHU 0DWWQHU6\VWHPWHFKQLN*PE+(UZLQYRQ.UHLELJ6WU'0XQLFK*HUPDQ\ I 8QLYHUVLGDG3ROLWHFQLFDGH0DGULG&DOOH5DPLURGH0DH]WX0DGULG6SDLQ
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
© 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the 3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI75$ Transport Research Arena 2012 Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license. .H\ZRUGV&2TXDQWLILFDWLRQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQWUDIILFPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVHFRGULYLQJ$'$6
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ (PDLODGGUHVV]LVLV#DXWKJU
1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1306
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
,QWURGXFWLRQ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH 3DQRUDPD RI 7UDQVSRUW (XURVWDW WUDQVSRUW LV WKH RQO\ VHFWRU LQ (XURSH IRU ZKLFKJUHHQKRXVHJDV*+* HPLVVLRQVFRQWLQXHWRLQFUHDVHDWDQDQQXDOUDWHRIa5RDGLVWKHPRVW VLJQLILFDQWWUDQVSRUWPRGHUHSUHVHQWLQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWRWDOWUDQVSRUWJHQHUDWHG*+*HPLVVLRQV ZKLFK HTXDOV WR a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µJUHHQZDYHV¶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x +RZGRHVWKHPHDVXUHDIIHFWWKHGULYLQJSDWWHUQRIVLQJOHYHKLFOHV" x +RZLVWKHDYHUDJHGULYHU¶VEHKDYLRXUDIIHFWHGE\WKHPHDVXUH" x +RZGRHVWKHWHFKQRORJ\RIGLIIHUHQWYHKLFOHVUHVSRQGWRWKHPRGLILHGGULYLQJSDWWHUQ" x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
3419
3420
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
WKH PLFUR DQG PDFUR VFDOHV DQG OLQN WKHP WR YHKLFOH VLPXODWRUV IROORZLQJ WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ GHYHORSHG 7KHYDOLGDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\RQH[LVWLQJUHDOZRUOG,&7DSSOLFDWLRQVLQWKUHHFLWLHV 7KH FDSLWDOLVDWLRQ LQ D GDWDEDVH OLEUDU\ RI WKH LPSDFW RI ,&7 PHDVXUHV RQ WUDIILF HQHUJ\ DQG HPLVVLRQV 7KH H[SORLWDWLRQ RI WKH UHVXOWV YLD UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV DQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ JXLGHOLQHV IRU XVH RI EHVW SUDFWLFHVLQ,&7PHDVXUHVWKDWFDQOHDGWRVLJQLILFDQWHQHUJ\DQG&2UHGXFWLRQVIURPURDGWUDQVSRUW 6XFK D PHWKRGRORJ\ FDQ EH XVHG E\ WUDQVSRUW SODQQHUV ORFDO DXWKRULWLHV DQG DXWRPRWLYH 2(0V DQG VXSSOLHUVEXWDOVR PRUHJHQHUDOO\WRTXDQWLI\WKHLPSDFW RI,&7PHDVXUHVRQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQDQG &2HPLVVLRQV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\LVGHYHORSHGDWWZRLQWHUOLQNHGOHYHOVDPLFUROHYHOZKHUHWKHLPSDFW RI ,&7 PHDVXUHV LV PRGHOOHG DW VLQJOHYHKLFOH OHYHO 7KH PLFUROHYHO LV VSHFLILFDOO\ GHYHORSHG IRU SDVVHQJHU FDUV 7KH PLFUROHYHO WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW WKH HIIHFW RI ,&7 PHDVXUHV RQ GULYLQJ SDWWHUQ DQG GULYHUEHKDYLRXU7KLVLVFRPELQHGZLWKDQLQVWDQWDQHRXVHPLVVLRQPRGHOWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHHIIHFW RIGLIIHUHQW YHKLFOHWHFKQRORJLHVVSHFLILFDOO\GHVLJQHGWREHFRXSOHGWRWKH PLFURWUDIILF PRGHO+HQFH &2 HPLVVLRQV IURP SDVVHQJHU FDUV DUH FDOFXODWHG RQ WKH PLFUR OHYHO 7KHQ UHVXOWV RI WKLV PLFUR VLPXODWLRQDUHH[WUDSRODWHGWRWKHPDFUROHYHOLQFOXGLQJDOOURDGWUDQVSRUWPRGHV7RWDO&2HPLVVLRQV IURPURDGWUDQVSRUWDUHWKHQFDOFXODWHGE\DOOYHKLFOHVXVLQJWUDIILFVLWXDWLRQDQGRUDYHUDJHVSHHGVSHFLILF HPLVVLRQIDFWRUVIRURWKHUURDGWUDQVSRUWYHKLFOHV ,Q WKLV FRQWH[W WKLV PHWKRGRORJ\ LV H[SHFWHG WR FRPELQH EHQHILWV IURP ERWK PLFUR DQG PDFUR PRGHOOLQJ7KDWLVLWSURYLGHVDPLFURPRGHOOLQJRISDVVHQJHUFDUVWKHGRPLQDWLQJHQHUJ\FRQVXPHUIRU SDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUWDQGWKHSULPHIRFXVRIPRVW,&7PHDVXUHV+RZHYHULWFRPELQHVWKHUHVXOWVRIWKLV GHWDLOHG PRGHOOLQJ ZLWK PRUH DJJUHJDWHG OHYHO PRGHOOLQJ PDFUR VFDOH WR FDOFXODWH HPLVVLRQV RI DOO SDVVHQJHUURDGWUDQVSRUWLQRUGHUWRFRPHXSZLWKWKHELJSLFWXUH0RUHLPSRUWDQWO\LWDOORZVWUDQVODWLRQ RI D ORFDO ,&7 PHDVXUH HJ VWUHHW OHYHO RQ &2 HPLVVLRQV RI D ZLGHU DUHD HJ XUEDQ OHYHO ZLWK D UHSUHVHQWDWLYH OHYHO RI GHWDLO DW ERWK WKH ORFDO DQG WKH ZLGHU OHYHO 7KH FRPELQDWLRQ RI DSSURDFKHV DW GLIIHUHQW VFDOHV GHFUHDVHV FRPSXWDWLRQ WLPH DQG WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH DSSURDFK7KLV PDNHV LW VXLWDEOH QRWMXVWIRUXVHE\WKHGHYHORSHUVEXWDOVRE\DZLGHUDXGLHQFHLQFOXGLQJOHVVH[SHULHQFHGDXWKRULWLHVDQG URDGRSHUDWRUV3DUWLFXODUHPSKDVLVLVJLYHQWRWKHDVVHVVPHQWRI,&7IRUQHZYHKLFOHWHFKQRORJLHVZLWK LQFUHDVLQJSRSXODULW\LQWKHFRPLQJ\HDUVLHK\EULGHOHFWULFYHKLFOHVHWF ,&76ROXWLRQVWREHFRQVLGHUHG ,&7(PLVVLRQVGRHVQRWDLPWRGHYHORSDQHZFRPSOHWHWUDIILFDQGHPLVVLRQPRGHO,QVWHDGLWDLPVDW GHYHORSLQJ DQ LQWHJUDWHG PHWKRGRORJ\ DQG WR GHPRQVWUDWH LWV DSSOLFDWLRQ XVLQJ FRPPHUFLDO WUDIILF DQG HPLVVLRQPRGHOV7KHLQWHQWLRQLVWKDWWKHPHWKRGRORJ\FDQEHXVHGE\VWDNHKROGHUVFLW\DXWKRULWLHVURDG RSHUDWRUV XVLQJWKHLURZQWRROVDQGQRWIRUFHWKHPWRSXUFKDVH\HWDQHZVXLWHRIFRPPHUFLDOVRIWZDUH $W WKH VDPH WLPH ,&7(PLVVLRQV ZLOO GHYHORS VRPH QHZ PRGXOHV DQG LQWHUIDFHV WR OLQN WUDIILF DQG HPLVVLRQPRGHOV7KHVHDUHFRQVLGHUHGDVDQLQWHJUDOSDUWRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DQGZLOOEHPDGHDYDLODEOH IRUIUHH7KHPHWKRGVDQGRSHUDWLRQVZLWKLQWKHVHFRPSRQHQWVZLOOEHGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOVRWKDWWKH\FDQ EHDOVRLPSOHPHQWHGLQFRPPHUFLDOVRIWZDUH ,QRUGHUWRGHYHORSDPHWKRGRORJ\WRDVVHVVWKHLPSDFWRIGLIIHUHQW,&7PHDVXUHVRQHQHHGVILUVWWR LGHQWLI\WKH,&7VROXWLRQVWKDWFDQEHSRVVLEO\LPSOHPHQWHGWRUHGXFH&2HPLVVLRQVIURPWUDQVSRUW,Q -XO\WKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQDQGWKH-DSDQHVH*RYHUQPHQWHVWDEOLVKHGWKH(&0(7,WDVNIRUFHZLWK WKHDLPWRDFKLHYHLQWHUQDWLRQDODJUHHPHQWRQUHOLDEOHPHWKRGRORJLHVIRUHYDOXDWLQJWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRI LQWHOOLJHQWWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV,76 LQHQHUJ\VDYLQJDQGWKHUHGXFWLRQRI&2HPLVVLRQV,76DUHGHILQHG LQ'LUHFWLYH(&DV³DGYDQFHGDSSOLFDWLRQVZKLFKZLWKRXWHPERG\LQJLQWHOOLJHQFHDVVXFKDLPWR SURYLGH LQQRYDWLYH VHUYLFHV UHODWLQJ WR GLIIHUHQW PRGHV RI WUDQVSRUW DQG WUDIILF PDQDJHPHQW DQG HQDEOH YDULRXV XVHUV WR EH EHWWHU LQIRUPHG DQG PDNH VDIHU PRUH FRRUGLQDWHG DQG µVPDUWHU¶ XVH RI WUDQVSRUW
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
QHWZRUNV´%DVLFDOO\,76WDNHVDGYDQWDJHRI,&7VROXWLRQVWRHQDEOHPRUHHIILFLHQWDQGVDIHUWUDQVSRUW (&0(7, FDPHXSZLWKDILUVWWHFKQLFDOUHSRUWRQ,76PHDVXUHVZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHGXFH&2 LQ)HEUXDU\7KLVUHSRUWFRQFOXGHGZLWKWKHIROORZLQJOLVWRIVROXWLRQV 7UDIILFPDQDJHPHQWDQGFRQWUROV\VWHPVµJUHHQZDYH¶VWUDWHJ\WUDIILFDGDSWLYHXUEDQFRQWUROUDPS PHWHULQJG\QDPLFVSHHGOLPLWVHWF 'HPDQGDQGDFFHVVPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVFRUGRQSULFLQJFDUERQFUHGLWSD\DV\RXGULYHHWF 1DYLJDWLRQ DQG WUDYHO LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHPV µJUHHQ¶ HQKDQFHG RQERDUG QDYLJDWLRQ G\QDPLF RQWULS URXWLQJHWF 'ULYHUEHKDYLRXUFKDQJHDQGHFRGULYLQJSURPRWLRQDQGDVVLVWDQFHRIHQHUJ\HIILFLHQWGULYLQJ /RJLVWLFVDQGIOHHWPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVUHOHYDQWIRUIUHLJKWDOVRSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWSULRULW\V\VWHPV $UHDVWRPRVWO\DLPDWUHGXFLQJFRQJHVWLRQDQGGHFUHDVLQJWRWDODFWLYLW\E\ZKLFKWRGHFUHDVHWRWDO &2 $UHD PRVWO\ DLPV DW WKH GULYHUYHKLFOH UHODWLRQVKLS HQDEOLQJ PRUH HIILFLHQW YHKLFOH XVH DQG VPRRWKHUGULYLQJ)LQDOO\DUHDPRVWO\WDUJHWVIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWDQGWKHORJLVWLFVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLW)RU SDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUWRQHFRXOGORRNLQWRIOHHWPDQDJHPHQWIRUEXVHVEXWWKHHIIHFWLVH[SHFWHGUHODWLYHO\ VPDOO GXH WR WKH VPDOO FRQWULEXWLRQ RI EXVHV WR WRWDO URDG WUDQVSRUW &2 ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHVH ILYH PDLQ DUHDVWKHUHSRUWLGHQWLILHGWZRPRUHDUHDVZLWKD&2UHGXFWLRQSRWHQWLDOLH ¾ 6DIHW\V\VWHPVWRDYRLGFRQJHVWLRQGXHWRDFFLGHQWVDQG ¾ &RRSHUDWLYHV\VWHPVZKLFKFRPELQHWZRRUPRUHRIWKHDUHDVDERYH )XUWKHU WR WKLV WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ IXQGHG WKH VWXG\ ³,PSDFW RI ,QIRUPDWLRQ DQG &RPPXQLFDWLRQ7HFKQRORJLHVRQ(QHUJ\(IILFLHQF\LQ5RDG7UDQVSRUW´.OXQGHUHWDO 7KHVWXG\ DVVHVVHG ,76 PHDVXUHV YHKLFOH WHFKQRORJLHV DQG RWKHU VROXWLRQV EDVHG RQ ,&77KH DYDLODEOH PHDVXUHV ZHUHGLVWLQJXLVKHGLQWRWKUHHFDWHJRULHVLHHFRVROXWLRQVDGYDQFHGGULYHUDVVLVWDQFH$'$ DQGWUDIILF PDQDJHPHQW V\VWHPV ,Q SULQFLSOH WKHVH WKUHH FDWHJRULHV DUH D GLIIHUHQW JURXSLQJ RI VROXWLRQV DOVR LGHQWLILHG LQ WKH (&0(7, UHSRUW ZLWK WKH LQFOXVLRQ RI VRPH QHZHU DQG PRUH YHKLFOHRULHQWHG ,&7 VROXWLRQVVXFKDV³DFWLYHJDVSHGDO´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µJUHHQZDYH¶ )XHOHIILFLHQWURXWHFKRLFHLHQDYLJDWLRQV\VWHPVZKLFKRSWLPL]HURXWHRQWKHEDVLVRI&2HPLVVLRQV DQGIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQ ,W VKRXOG EH UHSHDWHG WKDW WKH UHSRUW RUGHUHG WKH SRWHQWLDO RI ,&7 VROXWLRQV WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW DOVR WKHLU H[SHFWHG SHQHWUDWLRQ DW (8 VFDOH $W ORFDOUHJLRQDO OHYHO WKH RUGHU FRXOG EH GLIIHUHQW )RU H[DPSOHWKHVDPHVWXG\UHSRUWVH[DPSOHVZKHUHG\QDPLFWUDIILFVLJQDOOLQJOHGWR&2LPSURYHPHQWVRI PRUH WKDQ ZKLOH HFRGULYH FRDFKLQJ LV DVVXPHG WR OHDG WR &2 UHGXFWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH
3421
3422
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
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
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
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
3423
3424
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
%$6(/,1(25,&7 62/87,21
3$5$0(7(5,=$7,21
/2&$/(19,5210(17 3$66(1*(5&$56
,1&/8',1*6,03/,),('&20081,&$7,216,08/$725 52$'7PV@
W>V@ W>V@
'
'
W>V@
)LJ6FKHPDWLFRIWKHRSHUDWLRQRIWKHGULYHUVLPXODWRUPRGXOH
7KHGDVKHGOLQHLQ)LJXUHGHVLJQDWHVWKHLQWHUIDFHWKDWZLOOEHGHOLYHUHGE\WKHPHWKRGRORJ\,QVLGH WKHDUHDGHILQHGE\WKHGDVKHGOLQHDQ\PLFURDQGPDFURPRGHOVFDQEHXVHGSURYLGHGWKH\UHVSHFWWKH WUDIILFHTXLOLEULXPFULWHULDLQWKHQHWZRUNOLQNVZKHUHWKHWZRPRGHOVLQWHUIDFH,QRUGHUWRGHPRQVWUDWH WKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\WKHPLFURVFDOH9,66,0DQG$,0681ÁPRGHOVDQGWKHPDFURVFDOH 9,680DQG070RGHO&667 ZLOOEHXVHG7KHDUHDRXWVLGHWKHGDVKHGOLQH ZLOOFRQVLVWRI PRGXOHVDQGLQWHUIDFHVHLWKHUIURPWKHSXEOLFGRPDLQRUVSHFLILFDOO\GHVLJQHGLQWKH IUDPHZRUNRIWKLV SURMHFW)RUH[DPSOH&(02'.RXVRXOLGRXHWDO FDQEHXVHGDVDSXEOLFGRPDLQLQVWDQWDQHRXV PRGHO ZLWKLQ,&7(PLVVLRQV DQGD &23(571W]LDFKULVWRVHWDO RU+%()$
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³YHKLFOHPRGHO´LVDVLPXODWRURIWKHDGYDQFHG YHKLFOHFDSDELOLWLHV6XFKDPRGHOFRQVLVWVRIWKUHHVXEPRGHOV 6HQVRUPRGHO'HSHQGHQWRQWKHUHODWHG$'$6DQXPEHURIVHQVRUVZLOOEHVLPXODWHGSURYLGLQJWKH LQIRUPDWLRQUHTXLUHGE\WKHYHKLFOHG\QDPLFVPRGHODQGWKH$'$6PRGHOV7KLVLQFOXGHVERWK R 3URYLVLRQLQJ RI ORFDO VHQVRUV LQIRUPDWLRQ OLNH GLVWDQFH VHQVRUV WUDIILF VLJQ UHFRJQLWLRQ RU VSHHG
KWWSZZZSWYDJFRPVRIWZDUHWUDQVSRUWDWLRQSODQQLQJWUDIILFHQJLQHHULQJVRIWZDUHV\VWHPVROXWLRQVYLVVLP KWWSZZZDLPVXQFRPVLWH KWWSZZZSWYDJFRPVRIWZDUHWUDQVSRUWDWLRQSODQQLQJWUDIILFHQJLQHHULQJVRIWZDUHV\VWHPVROXWLRQVYLVXP
KWWSZZZKEHIDQHW KWWSZZZDYOFRPFUXLVH Á
3426
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
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
)LJ([DPSOHRIPLFURPDFURVLPXODWLRQLQWKHFDVHRI$'$6
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¾ $GDSWLYH&UXLVH&RQWURO$&& RQO\LHRQO\FDUVHQVRULQIRUPDWLRQ ¾ 5HDOWLPHWUDIILFVLJQDOWLPLQJLQIRUPDWLRQ767, WRGULYHUVDQGUHDFWLRQE\GULYHU ¾ ,QIRUPHG $&& ZLWK 767, LH WKH $&& PDNHV XVH RI WKH WUDIILF VLJQDO WLPLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ WR DGDSW DXWRPDWLFDOO\WKHWUDYHOVSHHGIRUHFRGULYLQJ ¾ ,QIRUPHG $&& ZLWK &DU&DU FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQGRU DFFXUDWH WUDIILF IORZ LQIRUPDWLRQ LH WKH $&&
Zissis Samaras et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 3418 – 3427
PDNHVXVHRISRVLWLRQVSHHGDQGDFFHOHUDWLRQGDWDRIVXUURXQGLQJFDUVWRDGDSWDXWRPDWLFDOO\WKHWUDYHO VSHHGIRUHFRGULYLQJ ¾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pQ&%HUJHU$GH/DQJH55RHWHUGLQN :.RVPDWRSRXORV(,PSDFWRI,QIRUPDWLRQDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQ7HFKQRORJLHVRQ(QHUJ\(IILFLHQF\LQ5RDG 7UDQVSRUW712UHSRUWIRUWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQS .RXVRXOLGRX01W]LDFKULVWRV/+DXVEHUJHU65H[HLV09DOLGDWLRQDQG,PSURYHPHQWRI&25,1$,5¶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ÀXHQFLQJ SDUDPHWHUV$WPRVSKHULF(QYLURQPHQW± 9DQ%HHN:'HUULNV+:LOEHUV30RUVLQN3:LVPDQV/9DQ%HHN37KHHIIHFWVRIVSHHGPHDVXUHVRQDLU SROOXWLRQDQGWUDIILFVDIHW\(XURSHDQ7UDQVSRUW7KH1HWKHUODQGV
3427