Are We There Yet? Connected/Autonomous Vehicles and the Internet of Things Hani S. Mahmassani Northwestern University Transportation Center
OUTLINE 1. Motivation: Autonomous Vehicles, Connected Systems, IoT 2. Adoption Factors: A Speculative Conceptualization 3. System Performance 4. Data Implications and Opportunities 5. Are We There Yet? Who is, and is not?
KEY TAKEAWAYS 1. Autonomous vehicle technology is here and now, and road-ready 2. Connectivity and IoT dramatically increase opportunity for user, system, and third parties 3. Transportation and mobility industries undergoing major disruptive influences: technology, players, concepts 4. Biggest hurdles on system aspects, public sector side 5. Initial market within 3 yrs, more by 2020, full blown by 2030 6. Many challenges ahead, and many more opportunities
WHAT IS A DRIVERLESS CAR? Federal National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA): Four Levels of Automation
IMPLICATIONS OF EACH LEVEL: User, Market and Society Kornhauser, 2014
The concept is not new…
But now it is here, there and everywhere…
And as the vehicle becomes a more interactive space…
SAFETY FIRST: What Causes Crashes?
Drivers Do!
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis, Feb. 2015
Autonomous vehicle technologies reduce/eliminate human error
Improve Safety!
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis, Feb. 2015
Connected Vehicles: Basic Concepts
Connected Vehicles Technology: Drivers Connected Vehicles technology helps drivers with these decisions. Connected Vehicles technology helps drivers with these decisions.
Free-Flow
Car-Following
Connected Vehicles Technology: Dynamic Mobility Applications
Ad hoc peer-to-peer communications network (V-2-V)
Connectivity vs. Automation Connectivity* Connected%systems% (internet%of%everything)%
Ad8hoc%% networks%
% EL V ) L E d %% % n M TE CE%a NCE S Y E E%S IGEN END R O L P M T E L DE IN TER IN
Isolated%
Cooperative* Driving**
Coordinated*
Peer8to8Peer% (Neighbor)% Receive% %only%
Smart( Highways(
8 Optimized%flow% 8 Routing% 8 Speed%harmonization%%
* Connected*
8 Real8time%info% 8 Asset%tracking% 8 Electronic%tolling**
**
Fully%manual%% Level%0%
INTELLIGENCE(
Autonomous( RESIDES( ENTIRELY( Vehicles((
IN(VEHICLE(
Fully%automated%% Level%4%
Automation*
Coordination through connectivity and automation: Continuous-flow at-grade intersections
Extreme Connectivity: Internet of Things THE USER IS AT THE CENTER OF THIS WEB OF CONNECTIVITY AND “ALWAYS AWARE” SYSTEMS AND DEVICES
Extreme Connectivity: Internet of Things
Opportunity
Connec&vity
IoT and the City: Leveraging connectivity in urban mobility
IoT and the City: Integrating multimodal transport options
IoT and the City: Smart and Connected Things
IoT and the City: Complex Urban Operations
IoT and Mobility: Opportunities FOR INDIVIDUAL USERS • Enhanced User Experience • Telemobility • Connected Life
FOR SYSTEM OPERATORS • Greater efficiencies • Smart Cities
FOR THIRD PARTIES • UNBOUNDED OPPORTUNITIES!
Two Sets of Questions: 1. Adoption Factors • What factors affect purchase and use decisions of autonomous vehicles? • Will people use these differently from conventional cars? • Will new mobility service alternatives (e.g. hybrid transit) emerge in connection with these vehicles? • How do we incorporate the implications of autonomous vehicle adoption in our planning models? • Are current models adequate to consider these aspects?
Two Sets of Questions: 2. System Implications •
•
What are the implications of automation and/vs. connectivity on traffic system performance in terms of SAFETY THROUGHPUT (“Capacity”) STABILITY ( è Safety) FLOW BREAKDOWN (Reliability) SUSTAINABILITY (Greenhouse gases, energy) What is the sensitivity to relative market penetration on impact on mixed traffic performance?
Who will buy driverless cars? • WILL CLASSIC ROGERS’ ADOPTION CURVE HOLD?
Key Adoption Factors • ABILITY TO DRIVE • TRUST • BENEFIT PERCEPTION Ø Safety Ø Mobility Ø Efficiency (time saving, constraint reduction) • AFFORDABILITY
Key Adoption Factors Ability to Drive
100%$
0%$
Age$
YOU and DRIVING • • • •
THOSE WHO CANNOT DRIVE THOSE WHO PREFER NOT TO DRIVE THOSE WHO PREFER TO DRIVE THOSE WHO LOVE TO DRIVE
Ability vs. Trust
• Ability'to'drive' • TRUST'
Age'
TRUST • • • •
THOSE WHO TRUST THOSE WHO MAY TRUST FOR CERTAIN SITUATIONS THOSE WHO MAY REQUIRE CERTAIN GARANTEES THOSE WHO WILL NEVER TRUST
• Ability to drive • TRUST
Age
Cohort Effect: Increasing trust Time value for parents
Safety value for parents
Cohort Effect: Increasing need Time Safety value for value for children self
Age
TWO KEY ASPECTS • AUTONOMOUS CAR AS MOBILITY TOOL Ø Greater safety, efficiency, etc… Ø Enables multitasking, short vs. longer spans • AS ROBOTIC ASSISTANT Ø Go shop, pick up kids– all mobility chores imposed by auto-centric suburban lifestyle Ø For small businesses– go deliver, pick up supplies…
ADOPTION PROPENSITY MONEY CONSTRAINED
Just as well… LOW PROPENSITY
GADGET? TOY? CONVENIENCE? SAFETY?
?
Role for Policy? Discounts, IncenTves Payment plans…
✔
High Value Can Afford HIGH PROPENSITY TIME CONSTRAINED
ADOPTION PROPENSITY MONEY CONSTRAINED
Stay healthy! LOW PROPENSITY
TIME VALUE? CONVENIENCE? SAFETY?
?
Role for Policy? Discounts, IncenTves Family plans Payment plans…
✔
High Value Can Afford HIGH PROPENSITY HEALTH CONSTRAINED
SUBSTITUTION OR COMPLEMENTARITY? Possible Hypotheses • Substitute, no other change • Substitute, free up time, money (individual level) and improve safety and congestion (for society) • Start using car for activities previously either not done, postponed or chained • New uses of mobility tools, major reorganization of activity patterns, especially for caregivers (of young people, elderly)
Major Mobility Supply Shifts • Driverless vehicles will enables new forms of mobility supply • New forms of car sharing with greater convenience may reduce the motivation for individual ownership • Car-sharing marketplaces may emerge– driverless Uber, reducing cost and uncertainty of sharing model • The realm between personal transportation and public mobility can widen considerably to include various hybrid forms • What will become of public transit as we know it? Driverless, personalized at low density, more efficient and accessible at higher density… • Some of these trends beginning to emerge today (e.g. Helsinki’s goal of public personal urban mobility).
THROUGHPUT and SPEED-DENSITY RELATION SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS – MIXED ENVIRONMENT
10% R– 0% C – 90% A
10% R– 50% C – 40% A
10% R– 20% C – 70% A
10% R– 70% C – 20% A
10% R– 40% C – 50% A
10% R– 90% C – 0% A
Throughput: Simulation Results •
Low market penetration rates of autonomous and connected vehicles do not result in a significant increase in bottleneck capacity.
•
Autonomous vehicles have more positive impact on capacity compare to connected vehicles.
•
Capacities over 3000 veh/hr/lane (~ 50% increase) can be achieved by using autonomous vehicles.
Autonomous, Connected, and Regular Vehicles
Connectivity Implications for data • ALL MORE: scope (items), detail, frequency, quantity > First-line critical uses > Safety-related > Motion-enabling > Navigation > Second-line important uses > Flow optimization > Information and control > Third-line potential uses > Seemingly unrelated uses > User experience > Marketing
ARE WE THERE YET? KEY PLAYERS in Autonomous Cars and IoT NEW TECH AUTOMOTIVE MOBILITY Google High End Mercedes, BMW
Tesla
Apple
Uber
Korean, Japanese Ford, GM
ARE WE THERE YET? KEY PLAYERS in Connected Systems and Mobility IoT Most auto players + Telecom carriers (AT&T, Verizon) + “System Integrators”: Siemens, IBM, Microsoft + IT/Chips/Infrastructure: Intel, Cisco, Qualcomm… + App designers, new mobility services– wide open, entrepreneurial, start-ups
ARE WE THERE YET? WHO IS READY? 1. Technology is here and now; “Big Tech” and “New Tech” is in the lead– ready to market within 3-5 years. 2. Automotive players– wide range (“waiting on standards”) • • • •
Connectivity in vehicles here and now; Driver-assist features already in high-end vehicles; Semi-autonomous in 3~5 yrs. Fully-autonomous: Special uses (freight, internal transit) by 2020
3. System Integrators: more hype than deployment; not quite there yet. 4. Insurance, Legal: surprisingly nimble 5. LEAST READY: Government agencies
KEY TAKEAWAYS 1. Autonomous vehicle technology is here and now, and road-ready 2. Connectivity and IoT dramatically increase opportunity for user, system, and third parties 3. Transportation and mobility industries undergoing major disruptive influences: technology, players, concepts 4. Biggest hurdles on system aspects, public sector side 5. Initial market within 3 yrs, more by 2020, full blown by 2030 6. Many challenges ahead, and many more opportunities
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