Jun 2, 2016 - Adjusted cost of illness. 21.02. 2.6. Cloud seeding. 2.08. 0.3. Expenditure on masks. 0.71. 0.1. Flight ca
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
STIPAC 14th Meeting 2nd June 2016
ASM TRANSBOUNDARY HAZE STUDY
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
ASM Transboundary Haze Study Scope: i. Legal-Policy Framework; ii. Institutional Arrangements; ii. Socio-Economics; and iii. Science and Technology (S&T) on the following aspects: 1. Air Quality and Haze Episodes; 2. Peat Area and Water Management; and 3. Waste to Resources: Energy or Materials 2
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION 1.
ASSESSMENT: SOURCES OF HAZE & IMPACTS
2.
SOLUTIONS ROOTED IN SOCIO-ECONOMICS: (i) Slash, Not to Burn, but to Earn Additional Income; (ii) Investments in Biomass-to-Energy Facilities by Public-Private Partnership
3.
WATER MANAGEMENT: (i) Planted Areas; (ii) Disturbed or Abandoned Peat Areas
4.
LOCAL MITIGATION MEASURE @INVERSION
5.
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE
6.
GAPS IN OUR KNOWLEDGE & FURTHER STUDIES
7.
SCIENCE DIPLOMACY
8.
LOGICAL FRAMEWORK
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Satellite Image of Sources of Haze
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
El-Niño & its Influence on Haze Highest API Value
El Niño
900
Level of El-Niño
API Value
4 Very Strong
Kuching Muar
800 700 600 Kota Kinabalu
500
Strong
2
Moderate
Kuala Selangor
400
Klang Sibu
300
Sri Aman
200 100
3
Miri Tanjun g Malim
Shah Alam
1
Weak
Data not available
0
0
Year
Note: All of this API is based on PM10
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
El-NINO & HAZE EPISODES, 1982-2016
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Sources of Haze Land-use changes
Slash and burn
Peat combustion Burning within oil palm plantation Local anthropogenic activities 7
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
A Major Source of Haze
Rein et al. (2008) 8
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Sources of haze
9
Impact of Haze
HEALTH
ECONOMIC
AGRICULTURE
BIODIVERSITY
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Impact (Health) Impact of Haze
PM2.5 and Health Particle Number Concentration, PNC
< 0.1 µm
(Betha et al. 2013)
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Impact (Health) Impact of Haze
1. Common symptoms during haze • throat irritation, coughing, difficulty in breathing, nasal congestion, sore eyes, cold attacks and chest pain. 2. Several studies shows increased in asthma, conjuctivitis and acute respiratory infections during haze episodes. 3. In 1997, number of outpatient visits for • Kuching: Asthma and respiratory diseases increased from 2-to-3 times during the peak haze period (in Kuching) • KL: Respiratory disease outpatient visits increased from 250 to 800 a day 4. A case-crossover analysis of forest fire haze events 2000-to-2007 showed an immediate increase of 19% in respiratory mortality and also the immediate and delayed effects on mortality. 12
Impact (Economic) Impact of Haze Aggregate value of haze damage in 1997 (Mohd Shahwahid & Othman 1999) Type of damage
RM Million
%
Productivity loss during the state of emergency
393.51
49.1
Decline in tourist arrivals
318.55
39.7
Decline in fish landings
40.58
5
Cost of fire-fighting
25
3.1
Adjusted cost of illness
21.02
2.6
Cloud seeding
2.08
0.3
Expenditure on masks
0.71
0.1
Flight cancellations
0.45
0.1
Total damage cost
801.9
100
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting 13
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Impact (Agriculture) Impact of Haze Reduction in total solar radiation can affect crop productivity. According to Nichol (1997), a research by the Forest Research Institute of Malaysia found that two varieties of hybrid rice in Malaysia, MR151 and MR123, experienced a 50% reduction in growth rate and abnormal. Paddy rice in Indonesia suffered a 2-3% reduction in yield during the haze.
Henson (2001) found that haze effect the palm oil productivity. 14
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Impact (Biodiversity) Impact of Haze
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Solutions rooted in socio-economics 1. Techno-Economic Approach 2. Peat & Water Management
3. Mitigating Measures during Haze Episode
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2. Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income
Recommendations: i.
The concerned Government should consider investing, through its privately linked companies, in the development of biomass-to-material or biomass-toenergy facilities through private-public equity partnership
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Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income
Breakeven of electricity selling price for biomass-to-power in Malaysian context
Breakeven of ethanol selling price for biomass-to-ethanol in Malaysian context
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income
ii. The concerned Government should provide a conducive investment environment, including low interest rates, competitive or subsidised pricing or bioproducts, and well-planned concession areas*, in order to promote investment in the proposed facilities.
*Concession area refers to the size of a land area large enough to support a sustainable supply of biomass to a designated conversion facility, and close enough to the facility
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income
Techno Economic Approach: Ethanol Production Cost Reduction by improving Debt:Equity (D:E) Ratio or Interest Rate (iR) (USD/Litre) Debt : Equity ratio 8% 95 : 5 70 : 30 60 : 40 50 : 50 40 : 60
0.77 0.73 0.71 (0.57a) 0.69 0.67
Interest Rate 5%
3%
0.61 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.59 (0.52ᵇ)
0.52 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.54
ᵃ US NREL (2011) ᵇ Adapted from US NREL analysis Public-Private Partnership 20
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income
Ethanol (E-85) retailed at USD 2.39/gallon=USD 0.58/litre [http://www.ethanolretailer.com/images/uploads/whitepaper_retailersurvey.pdf]
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
2b. The proposed conversion of biomass to energy is viable Recommendations: i.
The private sector ought to be encouraged to take the lead in the proposed investments, with the participation of government investment arms or government linked companies, and with the cooperation of local communities made up of farmers, settlers, smallholders, and adjacent plantation companies.
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The proposed conversion of biomass to energy is viable
ii.
Interested parties should conduct the necessary technoeconomic environmental feasibility studies prior to investment, namely, conversion of biomass to ethanol or biomass to electricity, or if not, hydrogen fuel by mobile* gasification and hydrogen generation (by electrolysis) unit.
The price of ethanol with different capacity and capacity cost *This is an alternative to overcoming the high cost of logistics to centralised facilities. 23
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
http://www.mybiomass.com.my/business/
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3. Water management, critical in peat areas, planted & non-planted Recommendations: i. Those who have received governmental permission to develop peat areas for plantation or any other agroforestry land development should carry out the following measures to reduce the fire risk:
a) suitable site selection, b) maintenance of natural drainage or sound drain development, c) land clearing and stacking, d) compaction, and e) re-compaction. ; 25
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
ii.
Manage peat, keep the fire away
Those who have already developed plantations in the peat areas should make it a priority to maintain a high water table by containing stream flows throughout the plantation irrigation systems
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Manage peat, keep the fire away
iii. Disturbed, abandoned, or underdeveloped peat areas should be identified and promoted for investments and rehabilitation by undertaking the above measures (3 (i) and (ii)) in order for such lands to be no longer a fire hazard. Excess flood water could be redirected to these areas to encourage rehabilitation and reversion to its natural flow.
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Manage peat, keep the fire away
Forest burnt in 2012 along drainage canal
Compartment 73 : 12 Aug 2012 Drained Land – Prone to Fire 28
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Manage peat, keep the fire away
Natural recovery in 18 months with high water table
Peatland Centre of Excellence
Compartment 73 : March 2014 Canal Block raised up water level Natural Regeneration Taken Place A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Manage peat, keep the fire away
Recovery of degraded forest 4 years after blocking drains
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
4. LOCAL MITIGATION MEASURE: Not at all times transboundary haze could be effectively controlled, particularly during the inversion period Recommendations: i.
The enforcement agencies must step up measures such that no open burning be allowed, particularly during the southwest monsoon period from months of June to early October
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Seeing through the haze
ii. A local contingency plan be developed and put into operations during any severe haze episode in order to reduce local sources of pollution by the source apportionment method.
Mitigating measures during haze episode Proposed Order of Action Line SOURCES OF AIR POLLUTION
POLLUTION LOAD Percentage of Contribution (%)
ORDER OF MITIGATING MEASURE
Transboundary
External, Unquantified, Uncontrolled
External Relations, Science Diplomacy
Others
2
4th
Industrial Emission
4
Third
Power Plants
24
Second
Mobile Sources
70
First 32
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Seeing through the haze
The emission of pollutants in year 2010
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Seeing through the haze
F5: Sea salt Na+
100
Cl-
PMF-MLR Source apportionment: PM2.5 chemical composition (Inorganic & BC)
Mg2+ Ca2+
100%
100.00 4.62
0 90%
4.67
1.85
90.00
F4: Industrial and Traffic Emissions Pb
Zn Cd Bi As
80% Rb
BC
Se
0
F3: Mixed SIA & biomass burning Ammonium
100
Se
K+
Sulfate
Rb
0
F2: Mineral dust Al
Ca2+ Mg2+
100
Co
Li
Fe
Sr U
Cu Mn
0
80.00
2.93
70%
60%
50%
70.00
T
36.92 11.72
60.00
50.00
40%
40.00 RH
30%
T (oC) / RH (%) / Rainfall (mm) / WS (ms-1)
Nitrate Nitrite
Source contribution, µg m -3 / in percentage of PM2.5
100
30.00
3.95
F1: Combustion of Fuel
20%
20.00 11.28
V
BC
U
Sr
Se
Ni
10% Rb
Ga
Cu
Cs
Co
Li
Bi
As
Cd
Zn
Fe
Pb
Al
Sr V
Ni
Ga Ba
Mg2+
K+
Ca2+
Na+
Amm…
Nitrate
Sulfate
Cl-
Nitrite
PM2.5
0
Sulfate Ammonium
Mn
100
0%
4.94
10.00 Rainfall WS
ANNUAL
4.24 0.00
HAZE 34
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Determination of PM2.5 sources – Haze and Non Haze Assumption if API is 300 PM10 = 286, ug/m3, PM2.5 =201
Mixed Sources
41%
UD 82 ug/m3
Transboundar y and Natural Sources
25% Transboundary Haze 50 ug/m3
11% 9%
Local Sources
12% 4% 2%
Mineral Dust 23 ug/m3 Sea Salt 9 ug/m3
Local Burning 24 ug/m3 Fuel Combustion 8 ug/m3 Industrial and Traffic Emissions4 ug/m3 35
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Seeing through the haze
Value of API & the Health Effect Air Quality Monitoring Network API
Status
Health Effect
0 - 50
Good
51-100
Moderate
101-200
Unhealthy
201-300
Very unhealthy
Moderate pollution that does not pose any bad effect on health Worsen the health condition of high risk people who is the people with heart and lung complications Worsen the health condition and low tolerance of physical exercises to people with heart & lung complications. Affect public health
301-500
Hazardous
Hazardous to high risk people & public health
Low pollution without any bad effect on health
(DOE 2015) 36
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
5. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE: El Niño does significantly influence the severity of haze, and it is now possible to predict any El Niño event 6 months ahead of time thanks to wellestablished forecasting systems already in place
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Correlation Maps (PJ annual PM10 index & Quasi-Global Sea Surface Temperature) El-Niño & its influence on haze
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Recommendations: i. The relevant authority should disseminate the forecast and alert all concerned.
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ii.
Every relevant authority and other concerned stakeholders take precautionary measures, well in advance before any El Niño event set in. Forecasts issued at the end of Oct 2015
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Drought & Forest Fires
Flooding
February 2016
Declare emergency if water crisis continues!!
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
6. Gaps in our knowledge & Further Studies Recommendations: i.
Systems studies, including socio-economic and legal implications of the proposed local contingency plans to respond in the event of severe haze episode, be undertaken in order to formulate the detailed measures to control local sources of pollution. 42
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Research & development areas
ii. R&D, including radioisotope tracing and modelling studies, on the high percentage of unidentified sources of pollution be carried out.
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Research & development areas
iii. To better understand the impact of haze towards health, social life and economy, studies need to be conducted especially in the areas that most affected by haze episodes in Malaysia. Study on health should focus on the toxicological properties of haze particles and systematically assess the health and social burden of diseases due to haze episodes. Among others are: a) Epidemiological study on the burden of diseases of air pollutants; b) Toxicity assessment of particulates from forest fires; and c) Evaluation of the indoor school environment during haze episodes. 44
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Research & development areas
iv. There is a need for more research and funding in the area relating to potential biomass utilisation directly related to the mitigation of the haze problem, as well as the development of databases and support systems for researchers. The choice of technology or combination of technologies to be selected for possible demonstration or even commercialisation requires a more detailed study. This is to determine with greater accuracy on the investments needed and the possible economic returns to complement the social and environmental benefits of potential solutions to the haze problem.
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Research & development areas
Biomass-to-Resources Potential Roadmap
H2 Fuel
46
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
7. SCIENCE DIPLOMACY: Communicating the sciences, for all “How can current scientific knowledge be synthesised and translated into policy-relevant information to aid policy and decision-making, management and to suggest further research?” Recommendation: i.
At the policy-making level, the importance of communicating scientific findings to support policy development is especially important. A better communication policy could be realised by better coordination of research conducted by research institutions, better use of social media to promote and create public dialogue on critical issues, multi-stakeholder activities such as field visits and active public engagement with governmental agencies to positively influence the policy process. 47
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
8. Logical framework
INPUTS
ACTIVITIES
OUTPUTS
OUTCOMES
IMPACTS
• Reduced • Strategic environment interventions • Position Paper & health risks • provide • Advisory Report evidence• NJM • Sustainable based best practices information • Relational Capital • Knowledge • to establish • Integrated mixed • Quadruple helix • Subject Malaysia’s • Haze free research Matter region stand/ methods • Structural Capital Experts position • Literature review • Database on • for science (books, journal, • Air quality and • People / news, patents diplomacy haze episodes Networks database) at regional • Peat area and • Steering • Case studies water level • WGs members • Biomass mapping management • Meetings • Money • RM 124,210 • Workshops • Infrastructure • Database • Stakeholder Engagement
• ROs • Financial • Government modelling officials, industry, • haze.academy.g academia ov.my
• Intellectual capital
• Waste to resources: Energy or Materials
• Implementation of related policies and regulations 48
Ministry
Memorandum to Cabinet
ASM
ASM Position Paper
ASM Council
[The Next Step Forward]
ASM Committee
ASM Haze Report
ASM Draft Final Report
ASM TF
TF Draft
TF Final Draft
TF Report
ASM WG1
WG Draft
WG Final Draft
WG Report
ASM WG2
WG Draft
WG Final Draft
WG Report
ASM WG3
WG Draft
WG Final Draft
WG Report
Member(s)
Discussion Paper
Working Paper Conference Paper
TF Draft Policy Summary
ASM S&T Journal Article
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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting
Acknowledgement
50 organisations
50
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Acknowledgement 119 individuals
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