ASM TRANSBOUNDARY HAZE STUDY

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Jun 2, 2016 - Adjusted cost of illness. 21.02. 2.6. Cloud seeding. 2.08. 0.3. Expenditure on masks. 0.71. 0.1. Flight ca
A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

STIPAC 14th Meeting 2nd June 2016

ASM TRANSBOUNDARY HAZE STUDY

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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

ASM Transboundary Haze Study Scope: i. Legal-Policy Framework; ii. Institutional Arrangements; ii. Socio-Economics; and iii. Science and Technology (S&T) on the following aspects: 1. Air Quality and Haze Episodes; 2. Peat Area and Water Management; and 3. Waste to Resources: Energy or Materials 2

A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION 1.

ASSESSMENT: SOURCES OF HAZE & IMPACTS

2.

SOLUTIONS ROOTED IN SOCIO-ECONOMICS: (i) Slash, Not to Burn, but to Earn Additional Income; (ii) Investments in Biomass-to-Energy Facilities by Public-Private Partnership

3.

WATER MANAGEMENT: (i) Planted Areas; (ii) Disturbed or Abandoned Peat Areas

4.

LOCAL MITIGATION MEASURE @INVERSION

5.

PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE

6.

GAPS IN OUR KNOWLEDGE & FURTHER STUDIES

7.

SCIENCE DIPLOMACY

8.

LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

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Satellite Image of Sources of Haze

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El-Niño & its Influence on Haze Highest API Value

El Niño

900

Level of El-Niño

API Value

4 Very Strong

Kuching Muar

800 700 600 Kota Kinabalu

500

Strong

2

Moderate

Kuala Selangor

400

Klang Sibu

300

Sri Aman

200 100

3

Miri Tanjun g Malim

Shah Alam

1

Weak

Data not available

0

0

Year

Note: All of this API is based on PM10

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El-NINO & HAZE EPISODES, 1982-2016

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Sources of Haze Land-use changes

Slash and burn

Peat combustion Burning within oil palm plantation Local anthropogenic activities 7

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A Major Source of Haze

Rein et al. (2008) 8

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Sources of haze

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Impact of Haze

HEALTH

ECONOMIC

AGRICULTURE

BIODIVERSITY

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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

Impact (Health) Impact of Haze

PM2.5 and Health Particle Number Concentration, PNC

< 0.1 µm

(Betha et al. 2013)

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Impact (Health) Impact of Haze

1. Common symptoms during haze • throat irritation, coughing, difficulty in breathing, nasal congestion, sore eyes, cold attacks and chest pain. 2. Several studies shows increased in asthma, conjuctivitis and acute respiratory infections during haze episodes. 3. In 1997, number of outpatient visits for • Kuching: Asthma and respiratory diseases increased from 2-to-3 times during the peak haze period (in Kuching) • KL: Respiratory disease outpatient visits increased from 250 to 800 a day 4. A case-crossover analysis of forest fire haze events 2000-to-2007 showed an immediate increase of 19% in respiratory mortality and also the immediate and delayed effects on mortality. 12

Impact (Economic) Impact of Haze Aggregate value of haze damage in 1997 (Mohd Shahwahid & Othman 1999) Type of damage

RM Million

%

Productivity loss during the state of emergency

393.51

49.1

Decline in tourist arrivals

318.55

39.7

Decline in fish landings

40.58

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Cost of fire-fighting

25

3.1

Adjusted cost of illness

21.02

2.6

Cloud seeding

2.08

0.3

Expenditure on masks

0.71

0.1

Flight cancellations

0.45

0.1

Total damage cost

801.9

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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

Impact (Agriculture) Impact of Haze  Reduction in total solar radiation can affect crop productivity.  According to Nichol (1997), a research by the Forest Research Institute of Malaysia found that two varieties of hybrid rice in Malaysia, MR151 and MR123, experienced a 50% reduction in growth rate and abnormal.  Paddy rice in Indonesia suffered a 2-3% reduction in yield during the haze.

 Henson (2001) found that haze effect the palm oil productivity. 14

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Impact (Biodiversity) Impact of Haze

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Solutions rooted in socio-economics 1. Techno-Economic Approach 2. Peat & Water Management

3. Mitigating Measures during Haze Episode

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2. Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

Recommendations: i.

The concerned Government should consider investing, through its privately linked companies, in the development of biomass-to-material or biomass-toenergy facilities through private-public equity partnership

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Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

Breakeven of electricity selling price for biomass-to-power in Malaysian context

Breakeven of ethanol selling price for biomass-to-ethanol in Malaysian context

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Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

ii. The concerned Government should provide a conducive investment environment, including low interest rates, competitive or subsidised pricing or bioproducts, and well-planned concession areas*, in order to promote investment in the proposed facilities.

*Concession area refers to the size of a land area large enough to support a sustainable supply of biomass to a designated conversion facility, and close enough to the facility

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Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

Techno Economic Approach: Ethanol Production Cost Reduction by improving Debt:Equity (D:E) Ratio or Interest Rate (iR) (USD/Litre) Debt : Equity ratio 8% 95 : 5 70 : 30 60 : 40 50 : 50 40 : 60

0.77 0.73 0.71 (0.57a) 0.69 0.67

Interest Rate 5%

3%

0.61 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.59 (0.52ᵇ)

0.52 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.54

ᵃ US NREL (2011) ᵇ Adapted from US NREL analysis  Public-Private Partnership 20

A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

Ethanol (E-85) retailed at USD 2.39/gallon=USD 0.58/litre [http://www.ethanolretailer.com/images/uploads/whitepaper_retailersurvey.pdf]

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2b. The proposed conversion of biomass to energy is viable Recommendations: i.

The private sector ought to be encouraged to take the lead in the proposed investments, with the participation of government investment arms or government linked companies, and with the cooperation of local communities made up of farmers, settlers, smallholders, and adjacent plantation companies.

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The proposed conversion of biomass to energy is viable

ii.

Interested parties should conduct the necessary technoeconomic environmental feasibility studies prior to investment, namely, conversion of biomass to ethanol or biomass to electricity, or if not, hydrogen fuel by mobile* gasification and hydrogen generation (by electrolysis) unit.

The price of ethanol with different capacity and capacity cost *This is an alternative to overcoming the high cost of logistics to centralised facilities. 23

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http://www.mybiomass.com.my/business/

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3. Water management, critical in peat areas, planted & non-planted Recommendations: i. Those who have received governmental permission to develop peat areas for plantation or any other agroforestry land development should carry out the following measures to reduce the fire risk:

a) suitable site selection, b) maintenance of natural drainage or sound drain development, c) land clearing and stacking, d) compaction, and e) re-compaction. ; 25

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ii.

Manage peat, keep the fire away

Those who have already developed plantations in the peat areas should make it a priority to maintain a high water table by containing stream flows throughout the plantation irrigation systems

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A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

Manage peat, keep the fire away

iii. Disturbed, abandoned, or underdeveloped peat areas should be identified and promoted for investments and rehabilitation by undertaking the above measures (3 (i) and (ii)) in order for such lands to be no longer a fire hazard. Excess flood water could be redirected to these areas to encourage rehabilitation and reversion to its natural flow.

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Manage peat, keep the fire away

Forest burnt in 2012 along drainage canal

Compartment 73 : 12 Aug 2012 Drained Land – Prone to Fire 28

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Manage peat, keep the fire away

Natural recovery in 18 months with high water table

Peatland Centre of Excellence

Compartment 73 : March 2014 Canal Block raised up water level Natural Regeneration Taken Place A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

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Manage peat, keep the fire away

Recovery of degraded forest 4 years after blocking drains

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4. LOCAL MITIGATION MEASURE: Not at all times transboundary haze could be effectively controlled, particularly during the inversion period Recommendations: i.

The enforcement agencies must step up measures such that no open burning be allowed, particularly during the southwest monsoon period from months of June to early October

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Seeing through the haze

ii. A local contingency plan be developed and put into operations during any severe haze episode in order to reduce local sources of pollution by the source apportionment method.

Mitigating measures during haze episode Proposed Order of Action Line SOURCES OF AIR POLLUTION

POLLUTION LOAD Percentage of Contribution (%)

ORDER OF MITIGATING MEASURE

Transboundary

External, Unquantified, Uncontrolled

External Relations, Science Diplomacy

Others

2

4th

Industrial Emission

4

Third

Power Plants

24

Second

Mobile Sources

70

First 32

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Seeing through the haze

The emission of pollutants in year 2010

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Seeing through the haze

F5: Sea salt Na+

100

Cl-

PMF-MLR Source apportionment: PM2.5 chemical composition (Inorganic & BC)

Mg2+ Ca2+

100%

100.00 4.62

0 90%

4.67

1.85

90.00

F4: Industrial and Traffic Emissions Pb

Zn Cd Bi As

80% Rb

BC

Se

0

F3: Mixed SIA & biomass burning Ammonium

100

Se

K+

Sulfate

Rb

0

F2: Mineral dust Al

Ca2+ Mg2+

100

Co

Li

Fe

Sr U

Cu Mn

0

80.00

2.93

70%

60%

50%

70.00

T

36.92 11.72

60.00

50.00

40%

40.00 RH

30%

T (oC) / RH (%) / Rainfall (mm) / WS (ms-1)

Nitrate Nitrite

Source contribution, µg m -3 / in percentage of PM2.5

100

30.00

3.95

F1: Combustion of Fuel

20%

20.00 11.28

V

BC

U

Sr

Se

Ni

10% Rb

Ga

Cu

Cs

Co

Li

Bi

As

Cd

Zn

Fe

Pb

Al

Sr V

Ni

Ga Ba

Mg2+

K+

Ca2+

Na+

Amm…

Nitrate

Sulfate

Cl-

Nitrite

PM2.5

0

Sulfate Ammonium

Mn

100

0%

4.94

10.00 Rainfall WS

ANNUAL

4.24 0.00

HAZE 34

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Determination of PM2.5 sources – Haze and Non Haze Assumption if API is 300 PM10 = 286, ug/m3, PM2.5 =201

Mixed Sources

41%

UD 82 ug/m3

Transboundar y and Natural Sources

25% Transboundary Haze 50 ug/m3

11% 9%

Local Sources

12% 4% 2%

Mineral Dust 23 ug/m3 Sea Salt 9 ug/m3

Local Burning 24 ug/m3 Fuel Combustion 8 ug/m3 Industrial and Traffic Emissions4 ug/m3 35

A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

Seeing through the haze

Value of API & the Health Effect Air Quality Monitoring Network API

Status

Health Effect

0 - 50

Good

51-100

Moderate

101-200

Unhealthy

201-300

Very unhealthy

Moderate pollution that does not pose any bad effect on health Worsen the health condition of high risk people who is the people with heart and lung complications Worsen the health condition and low tolerance of physical exercises to people with heart & lung complications. Affect public health

301-500

Hazardous

Hazardous to high risk people & public health

Low pollution without any bad effect on health

(DOE 2015) 36

A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

5. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE: El Niño does significantly influence the severity of haze, and it is now possible to predict any El Niño event 6 months ahead of time thanks to wellestablished forecasting systems already in place

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Correlation Maps (PJ annual PM10 index & Quasi-Global Sea Surface Temperature) El-Niño & its influence on haze

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Recommendations: i. The relevant authority should disseminate the forecast and alert all concerned.

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ii.

Every relevant authority and other concerned stakeholders take precautionary measures, well in advance before any El Niño event set in. Forecasts issued at the end of Oct 2015

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Drought & Forest Fires

Flooding

February 2016

Declare emergency if water crisis continues!!

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6. Gaps in our knowledge & Further Studies Recommendations: i.

Systems studies, including socio-economic and legal implications of the proposed local contingency plans to respond in the event of severe haze episode, be undertaken in order to formulate the detailed measures to control local sources of pollution. 42

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Research & development areas

ii. R&D, including radioisotope tracing and modelling studies, on the high percentage of unidentified sources of pollution be carried out.

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Research & development areas

iii. To better understand the impact of haze towards health, social life and economy, studies need to be conducted especially in the areas that most affected by haze episodes in Malaysia. Study on health should focus on the toxicological properties of haze particles and systematically assess the health and social burden of diseases due to haze episodes. Among others are: a) Epidemiological study on the burden of diseases of air pollutants; b) Toxicity assessment of particulates from forest fires; and c) Evaluation of the indoor school environment during haze episodes. 44

A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

Research & development areas

iv. There is a need for more research and funding in the area relating to potential biomass utilisation directly related to the mitigation of the haze problem, as well as the development of databases and support systems for researchers. The choice of technology or combination of technologies to be selected for possible demonstration or even commercialisation requires a more detailed study. This is to determine with greater accuracy on the investments needed and the possible economic returns to complement the social and environmental benefits of potential solutions to the haze problem.

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Research & development areas

Biomass-to-Resources Potential Roadmap

H2 Fuel

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7. SCIENCE DIPLOMACY: Communicating the sciences, for all “How can current scientific knowledge be synthesised and translated into policy-relevant information to aid policy and decision-making, management and to suggest further research?” Recommendation: i.

At the policy-making level, the importance of communicating scientific findings to support policy development is especially important. A better communication policy could be realised by better coordination of research conducted by research institutions, better use of social media to promote and create public dialogue on critical issues, multi-stakeholder activities such as field visits and active public engagement with governmental agencies to positively influence the policy process. 47

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8. Logical framework

INPUTS

ACTIVITIES

OUTPUTS

OUTCOMES

IMPACTS

• Reduced • Strategic environment interventions • Position Paper & health risks • provide • Advisory Report evidence• NJM • Sustainable based best practices information • Relational Capital • Knowledge • to establish • Integrated mixed • Quadruple helix • Subject Malaysia’s • Haze free research Matter region stand/ methods • Structural Capital Experts position • Literature review • Database on • for science (books, journal, • Air quality and • People / news, patents diplomacy haze episodes Networks database) at regional • Peat area and • Steering • Case studies water level • WGs members • Biomass mapping management • Meetings • Money • RM 124,210 • Workshops • Infrastructure • Database • Stakeholder Engagement

• ROs • Financial • Government modelling officials, industry, • haze.academy.g academia ov.my

• Intellectual capital

• Waste to resources: Energy or Materials

• Implementation of related policies and regulations 48

Ministry

Memorandum to Cabinet

ASM

ASM Position Paper

ASM Council

[The Next Step Forward]

ASM Committee

ASM Haze Report

ASM Draft Final Report

ASM TF

TF Draft

TF Final Draft

TF Report

ASM WG1

WG Draft

WG Final Draft

WG Report

ASM WG2

WG Draft

WG Final Draft

WG Report

ASM WG3

WG Draft

WG Final Draft

WG Report

Member(s)

Discussion Paper

Working Paper Conference Paper

TF Draft Policy Summary

ASM S&T Journal Article

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Acknowledgement

50 organisations

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Acknowledgement 119 individuals

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