ISDS 2013 Conference Abstracts
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Modeling of Time Series of Local Telephone Triage Data for Syndromic Surveillance Micael Widerström*1, 2, Maria Omberg1, Martin Ferm3, Ann-Katrine Pettersson4, Malin Rundvik Eriksson1, Ingela Eckerdal4 and Johan Wiström5, 6 1
Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden; 2Department of Clinical Microbiology, Unit of Clinical Research Center- Östersund, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; 3Centre of Registers in Northern Sweden, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; 4Swedish Health Care Direct 1177, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden; 5Department of Clinical Microbiology, Infectious Diseases, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; 6Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Västerbotten County Council, Umeå, Sweden
Objective #@=,48B,>?:@>0?070;3:90?=4,20/,?,?:/0A07:;,8:/071:= .:88@94?D70A07>D9/=:84.>@=A0477,9.0?3,?.,9/0?0.?7:.,7:@? -=0,6>:1,.@?02,>?=:09?0=4?4>,9/4917@09E,746047790>> ,9/,77:B?,=20?0/7:.,7/4>0,>0.:9?=:7491:=8,?4:9 Introduction ",?4:9,7?070;3:9030,7?3,/A4.0>0=A4.0/,?,3,A0-00949A0>?4 2,?0/,>,>:@=.01:=>D9/=:84.>@=A0477,9.0:14917@09E,746047790>> ,9/2,>?=:09?0=4?4> $=:A4/492,342370A07:1.:A0=,20?30>D> ?088423?>0=A0,>,90,=7D:@?-=0,6/0?0.?4:9?::7*03,A0;=0A4 :@>7D1:@9/?3,??070;3:90?=4,20>0=A4.0/,?,:1,.@?02,>?=:09?0=4?4> B,>>@;0=4:=?:B0-,>B077,>:A0=?30.:@9?0=;3,=8,.D >,70>:1,9?4/4,==30,80/4.,?4:9?:/0?0.?7,=20B,?0=,9/1::/-:=90 :@?-=0,6>:12,>?=:49?0>?49,747790>>49&B0/09/@=492?30D0,=> H
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[email protected];,74?40>49F8?7,9/:@9?D&B0/09B0=0,9,7DE0/-D >0,>:9,7,@?:=02=0>>4A049?02=,?0/8:A492,A0=,20%!8:/07 492:1?480>0=40>:1?30?B:.:88:9>D9/=:80>J/4,==30,K:= J9,@>0,:=A:84?492K,9/ J10A0=K,9/J.:@23K,?,,9,7D>4> B,>/:90@>492?301=00>:1?B,=0%,7,92@,20,9/09A4=:9809?1:= >?,?4>?4.,7.:8;@?492,9/4?>1:=0.,>?;,.6,20A0=>4:9
3??;BBB=;=:50.?:=2 &070.?4:9 :1 8:/07 ;,=,80?0=> B,> ,>>0>>0/@>4926,460L>91:=8,?4:9=4?0=4:9,9/?308:/07 ;0=1:=8,9.0B,>0A,7@,?0/@>49280,9>1:=;=0/4.?4:949?0=A,7>B0=0>0?,? ,9/=0>;0.?4A07D ,9/B0=0@>0/?:2090=,?0>429,7>(;;0=7484?>1:=;=0/4.?4:949?0= A,7>B0=0>0?,? ,9/=0>;0.?4A07D,9/B0=0@>0/?:2090=,?0 >429,7> Results '30>0,>:9,7%!8:/07>3:B0/2::/;0=1:=8,9.049;=0/4.? 4921@?@=0A,7@0>:1,9/ ,9/B,>,-70?:/0?0.?0/>429414 .,9?7D070A,?0/A,7@0>1:=,9/ 49:1.:88@94?40>/@=492 ?30 H 4917@09E,,9/.,74.4A4=@>>0,>:9 Conclusions #@=>0,>:9,7%!8:/07@>4927:.,7?070;3:90?=4,20/,?,/0 ?0.?0/,9/ :@?-=0,6>429,7>49?308,5:=4?D:1?3049A0>?4 2,?0/.:88@94?40>'34>1:=0.,>?8:/07.,9;=:A0?:-0,948;:=?,9? ?::7 1:= 8:94?:=492 7:.,7 70A07> :1 ,9/ ?: 09,-70 0,=7D
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Keywords &D9/=:84.>@=A0477,9.0#@?-=0,6/0?0.?4:9,?,,9,7D>4>4>0,>0 :@?-=0,6$@-74.0,7?3&@=A0477,9.0 Acknowledgments '34> B:=6 B,> 1@9/0/ -D ?30 &B0/4>3 4A47 :9?49209.40> 209.D !&
References
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*Micael Widerström
[email protected] E-mail:
ISDS Annual Conference Proceedings 2013. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons AttributionNoncommercial 3.0 Unported License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), permitting all non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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Online Journal of Public Health Informatics * ISSN 1947-2579 * http://ojphi.org * 6(1):e18, 2014