May 29, 2018 - Source: Company, KRChoksey Research ... The bank's exposure to NCLT list 1 is INR 71.6 bn with provisions
Page 1
Bank Of Baroda Ltd.
RESULT UPDATE
29th May, 2018
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Bank Of Baroda Ltd
Page 2
Stress recognition nearly complete; lower slippages ahead
CMP
Target
Potential Upside
Market Cap (INR Mn)
INR 145
INR 168
16%
384,658
Recommendation BUY
Sector
BFSI
Result highlights Advances at INR 4274 bn grew by 12% yoy/7% qoq. Domestic credit book registered 18% growth yoy, largely led by retail book growth of 42.4%. Home loans segment posted a growth of 48.2%. NII at INR 40 bn grew by 12% yoy / -9% qoq, impacted by interest income reversals on account of continued high slippages. Yield on advances at 7.2% was down ~50 bps sequentially while calc. NIMs at 2.4% were down ~30 bps qoq. Stock of GNPAs at INR 565 bn grew by 16% qoq, forming 12.3% of the total advances (+95 bps qoq) while NNPAs were 5.5% (+52 bps qoq). Of the total slippages, INR 42.7 bn came from the RSA on account of RBI’s Feb 2018 circular. NNPA + watch list of INR 100.4 bn makes up for total stress of INR 335.2 bn (7.8% of net advances). For the quarter, the bank reported a loss of INR -30 bn on account of high provisioning which at INR 66.7 bn was up 154% yoy / 95% qoq. Credit costs for the quarter were 620 bps; PCR w/o TWO stood at 58%. Going forward, the bank is guiding for lower credit costs (of 10%. Quality corporate credit growth and capital optimization would be key priorities for FY19. MARKET DATA
KEY FINANCIALS
Shares outs (Mn)
2645
Particulars (INR Mn)
Equity Cap (INR Mn)
5291
NII
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
1,27,398.5
1,35,134.1
1,55,217.7
1,74,153.6
1,98,894.9
Mkt Cap (INR Mn)
384658
PPOP
88,155.8
1,09,750.7
1,20,055.5
1,34,942.3
1,54,153.6
52 Wk H/L (INR)
207/126
PAT
Volume Avg (3m K)
16595
Face Value (INR)
2
Bloomberg Code
BOB IN
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
-53,955.4
13,831.4
-24,318.1
27,515.4
50,457.7
EPS (₹)
-23.4
6.0
-9.2
10.4
19.1
BVPS (₹)
174.5
174.9
164.0
172.9
189.1
ABVPS (₹)
90.2
96.5
75.3
93.1
111.8
P/ABV (x)
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.3
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
150
Stress recognition nears completion; guiding for lower slippages ahead
90
During the quarter, the bank saw slippages of INR 125.7 bn, translating into a slippage ratio of 12.4% (vs. 5.2% as of Q3FY18 and 3.06% for FY17). For FY18, slippage was 5.8%. Of the total NPA formation, INR 42.7 bn was from the RSA on account of RBI Feb 2018 circular concerning guidelines on stressed assets (INR 20.3 bn of SDR and INR 9.7 bn of S4A). Power (INR 21.5 bn), telecom (INR 16.8 bn) and textile (INR 7.9 bn) formed majority of the slippages. Total corporate slippages of INR 75 bn formed >90% of the total.
60
GNPAs stood at 12.27%, +95 bps qoq / NNPAs at 5.49%, +52 bps qoq. Segment wise, corporate NPA deteriorated by 270 bps to 18.7% qoq while rest of the segments improved – retail NPAs were 2.4%, down 100 bps qoq, MSME NPAs were 16.2%, down 180 bps qoq and agri NPAs were 14.9%, down 130 bps qoq. Corporate slippage was 5.1% (annualized).
May-18
Nov-17
May-17
Nov-16
May-16
May-15
Nov-15
120
Sensex
The bank’s exposure to NCLT list 1 is INR 71.6 bn with provisions of 55.2% while exposure to NCLT list 2 is INR 38.3 bn with provisions of 55.2%. Total exposure to NCLT is Rs. 109.9 bn with another INR 5.2 bn to be provided for (by June 2018). The bank is expecting resolutions in most accounts of NCLT list 1 in first half of FY19 and for NCLT list 2 by the end of FY19 which should lead to lower NPAs and better margins going forward.
SENSEX
35165
NIFTY
10689
Credit costs for the quarter stood at 6.6%, +350 bps yoy / +280 bps qoq, resulting in losses of INR 30 bn. PCR incl TWO stands at 67.2% and excl. TWO stands at 58.4%. For FY19, the bank has guided for much lower credit costs of 10%.
Bank of Baroda Ltd
MARKET INFO
The watch list stands at INR 100.4 bn which includes all of SMA2 and stressed SMA1. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
Particulars
Mar-18
Promoters FIIs DIIs Others Total
Dec-17
Sep-17
64.03
58.7
59.24
13.94
15.06
12.89
14.03
17.9
18.71
8
8.35
9.18
100
100
100
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
13%
13% Advances CAGR FY18-20E KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
NII CAGR FY18-20E +91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 3
Bank Of Baroda Ltd Steady growth in advances; targeting 15% growth ahead The bank registered steady credit growth of 12% yoy / 7% qoq during the quarter. Domestic credit book grew by 18% yoy led by retail growth of 42.4% (retail now forms 23% of the total domestic book, +300 bps yoy). Out of retail loans, home loans continued to grow at superior rate of 48.2% yoy, forming 54% of the total retail loan book. The bank continues to target sustainable growth in retail loans through expanding the distribution channels, digitizing the loan processing and approvals and undertaking several other measures. Corporate book stands at INR 1647.8 bn, up 16.81% yoy. RWA/corporate exposure has declined to 49% of FY18 against 62% as of FY17. Overall, exposures rated ‘A and above’ now form about 52.4% of the total corporate book against 39.3% as of FY17 and 50.4% as of Q3FY18. One of the key priorities for FY19 will be quality corporate credit growth and capital optimization in the corporate book. As part of this strategy, the bank has outlined a number of select performing sectors where it would like to grow its exposure, such as cement, auto, FMCG, pharma. Valuation/view: On account of stress recognition nearing completion coupled with improved outlook on slippages and moderate credit costs going forward, we expect bank’s profitability to improve sharply. Resolution of NCLT cases (list 1 + 2) over the next 12 months should help bring down the stock of stressed assets and aid margin improvement. Aggressive focus on retail credit along with quality corporate should yield better asset quality and risk-adjusted returns going forward. Strong PCR of >65% alleviates any concerns of P&L pressure henceforth. We maintain BUY with a target price of INR 168 per share, valuing the bank at 1.5x FY20E ABVPS.
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 4
Bank Of Baroda Ltd Particulars (INR Mn) Income Statement
Q4FY18
Q4FY17
Q3FY18
Y-o-Y
Q-o-Q
Interest income
1,10,393
1,08,752
1,13,032
1.5%
-2.3%
Interest expense
70,370
72,933
69,092
-3.5%
1.8%
Net interest income
40,023
35,819
43,940
11.7%
-8.9%
Noninterest income
16,959
19,773
16,730
-14.2%
1.4%
Total income
56,982
55,591
60,671
2.5%
-6.1%
- Employee costs
12,685
12,222
11,104
3.8%
14.2%
- Other operating expenses
17,642
13,167
17,642
34.0%
0.0%
Operating expenses
30,327
25,390
28,746
19.4%
5.5%
Pre-provision profit
26,655
30,202
31,925
-11.7%
-16.5%
Provisions
66,720
26,230
34,265
154.4%
94.7%
Profit before tax
-40,065
3,972
-2,340
-1108.7%
1611.9%
Tax expense
-10,020
2,425
1,118
-513.2%
-996.1%
Net profit
-30,045
1,547
-3,459
-2041.9%
768.7%
Balance Sheet items
Q4FY18
Q4FY17
Q3FY18
Y-o-Y
Q-o-Q
Deposits
59,13,148
60,16,752
57,32,652
-1.7%
3.1%
Borrowings
6,25,720
3,06,114
4,52,917
104.4%
38.2%
Investments
16,31,845
12,96,305
16,35,670
25.9%
-0.2%
Advances
42,74,318
38,32,592
39,93,808
11.5%
7.0%
Total Assets
71,99,998
69,48,754
68,28,243
3.6%
5.4%
12.13%
12.24%
11.55%
-11 bps
58 bps
Q4FY18
Q4FY17
Q3FY18
Y-o-Y
Q-o-Q
Yield on avg advances (%)
7.0%
7.1%
7.5%
-10 bps
-57 bps
Yield on avg interest earning assets (%)
6.5%
6.6%
7.0%
-10 bps
-49 bps
Cost of funds (%)
4.3%
4.6%
4.5%
-31 bps
-16 bps
Capital adequacy ratio (%) Spread Analysis
NIM (%)
2.34%
2.2%
2.70%
18 bps
-36 bps
Asset quality
Q4FY18
Q4FY17
Q3FY18
Y-o-Y
Q-o-Q
Gross NPA
5,64,814
4,27,194
4,84,814
32.2%
16.5%
Net NPA
2,34,830
1,80,802
1,98,520
29.9%
18.3%
GNPA (%)
12.26%
10.46%
11.31%
180 bps
95 bps
NNPA (%)
5.49%
4.72%
4.97%
77 bps
52 bps
58%
58%
59%
75 bps
-63 bps
Provision coverage (%) Credit cost (%)
4.5%
2.0%
2.4%
247 bps
208 bps
Q4FY18
Q4FY17
Q3FY18
Y-o-Y
Q-o-Q
53.2%
45.7%
47.4%
755 bps
584 bps
C/D ratio (%)
72%
64%
70%
859 bps
262 bps
RoA (%)
-1.7%
0.1%
-0.2%
-176 bps
-147 bps
Leverage (x)
16.6
17.2
16.8
-27.7%
1.5%
-3.4%
-2923 bps
-2429 bps
Key ratios Cost to income ratio (%)
RoE (%) Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 5
Bank Of Baroda Ltd Credit book (INR Bn)
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Total advances
3,541.5
3,499.6
3,832.6
3,776.1
3,873.0
3,993.8
4,274.3
Domestic book
2,661.3
2,692.1
2,977.6
2,896.4
3,025.0
3,149.8
3,512.7
Large and Medium / Wholesale
1,219.2
1,279.4
1,410.7
666.2
1,387.6
1,454.8
1,647.8
% of total
34.4%
36.6%
36.8%
17.6%
35.8%
36.4%
38.6%
MSME
480.6
467.1
485.5
579.3
502.0
520.3
517.3
% of total
13.6%
13.3%
12.7%
15.3%
13.0%
13.0%
12.1%
Retail
512.5
513.2
579.9
608.2
643.2
684.5
826.0
% of total
14.5%
14.7%
15.1%
16.1%
16.6%
17.1%
19.3%
Agriculture
423.9
416.0
473.0
463.4
458.9
466.5
495.8
% of total
12.0%
11.9%
12.3%
12.3%
11.8%
11.7%
11.6%
Misc. including trade
25.1
16.5
28.5
579.3
33.4
23.7
25.7
% of total
0.7%
0.5%
0.7%
15.3%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Retail book (INR Bn)
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Home loans
263.3
265.5
301.7
329.4
353.1
383.2
447.1
% of Retail Loans
51.4%
51.7%
52.0%
54.2%
54.9%
56.0%
54.1%
yoy growth
11.6%
9.1%
20.8%
27.2%
34.1%
44.3%
48.2%
qoq growth
1.7%
0.8%
13.6%
9.2%
7.2%
8.5%
16.7%
Vehicle
41.5
42.0
43.9
45.1
48.0
52.2
57.3
% of Retail Loans
8.1%
8.2%
7.6%
7.4%
7.5%
7.6%
6.9%
yoy growth
-2.3%
-6.7%
-0.8%
6.6%
15.7%
24.2%
30.3%
qoq growth
-1.9%
1.3%
4.6%
2.7%
6.4%
8.7%
9.8%
Education
21.2
20.6
20.5
20.5
20.9
20.9
20.4
% of Retail Loans
4.1%
4.0%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
2.5%
yoy growth
-1.4%
-4.8%
-3.2%
-2.7%
-1.6%
1.5%
-0.5%
qoq growth
0.6%
-2.8%
-0.4%
0.0%
1.7%
0.3%
-2.4%
Others
186.6
185.1
213.8
213.2
221.2
228.2
301.2
% of Retail Loans
36.4%
36.1%
36.9%
35.1%
34.4%
33.3%
36.5%
yoy growth
-15.9%
-10.7%
10.6%
14.2%
18.6%
23.3%
40.9%
qoq growth
-0.1%
-0.8%
15.5%
-0.3%
3.8%
3.1%
32.0%
Total retail book
512.5
513.2
579.9
608.3
643.2
684.5
826.0
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
327.7
404.2
425.2
406.8
417.2
425.4
460.6
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Deposit base (INR Bn) CA CA (%)
5.8%
6.9%
7.1%
7.1%
7.2%
7.4%
7.8%
1,239.9
1,558.2
1,509.8
1,476.1
1,532.1
1,559.5
1,657.2
SA (%)
21.8%
26.4%
25.1%
25.9%
26.3%
27.2%
28.0%
CASA
1,567.6
1,962.4
1,935.0
1,882.8
1,949.4
1,984.9
2,117.8
27.6%
33.3%
32.2%
33.0%
33.4%
34.6%
35.8%
5,675.3
5,898.6
6,016.8
5,706.1
5,832.1
5,732.7
5,913.1
SA
CASA (%) Total deposits Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 6
Bank Of Baroda Ltd Spread analysis (calc.)
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Yield on avg advances (annualized)
7.6%
7.7%
7.4%
7.3%
7.5%
7.7%
7.2%
Yield on avg investments
7.5%
6.9%
7.4%
7.3%
6.9%
6.9%
6.8%
Yield on interest earning assets
6.7%
6.5%
6.6%
6.5%
6.7%
7.0%
6.6%
Cost of funds
4.7%
4.8%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
4.5%
4.4%
NIM
2.2%
2.0%
2.2%
2.1%
2.3%
2.7%
2.4%
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Gross NPAs (INR Bn)
429.5
426.4
427.2
461.7
463.1
484.8
564.8
Net NPAs (INR Bn)
193.4
190.1
180.8
195.2
195.7
198.5
234.8
Gross NPA (%)
11.4%
11.4%
10.5%
11.4%
11.2%
11.3%
12.3%
Net NPA (%)
5.5%
5.4%
4.7%
5.2%
5.1%
5.0%
5.5%
Gross slippage (%)
3.3%
4.9%
4.9%
5.7%
3.9%
6.1%
13.2%
Net slippage (%)
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.6%
2.1%
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
A & Above
29.3%
31.4%
39.3%
40.2%
42.9%
50.4%
52.4%
BBB
14.4%
14.8%
15.8%
15.8%
15.2%
13.5%
14.9%
Below BBB
16.3%
18.3%
21.8%
19.3%
22.9%
22.8%
19.7%
Unrated
40.0%
35.5%
23.2%
24.7%
19.0%
13.3%
13.0%
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Asset quality
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Rating profile
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 7
Bank Of Baroda Ltd Industry wise NPA (INR Bn) Commercial RE Trade Chemicals Food Products All Engineering Petroleum & petrochem Textile Metals (mainly iron/steel) Other infra Roads & ports Telecom Power 0 Q3FY18
10
20
30 Q4FY17
40
50
60 Q4FY18
70
80
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
Sector wise NPA (%) 20%
18.7% 16.0%
16.2% 14.9%
14.4%
15%
13.6%
10%
5%
3.4%
2.4%
0% Large and Medium / Wholesale
MSME
Retail
Q3FY18
Agriculture
Q4FY18
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
90
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 8
Bank Of Baroda Ltd FINANCIALS (INR Mn) PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT (INR Mn)
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
Interest income
4,29,636
4,40,613
4,21,999
4,36,485
4,89,922
5,46,008
Interest expense
2,97,763
3,13,214
2,86,865
2,81,268
3,15,768
3,47,113
Net interest income
1,31,872
1,27,399
1,35,134
1,55,218
1,74,154
1,98,895
Non interest income
44,020
49,989
67,581
66,572
71,196
78,859
Total income
1,75,892
1,77,387
2,02,715
2,21,789
2,45,350
2,77,754
Operating expenses
76,741
89,231
92,964
1,01,734
1,10,407
1,23,601
Employee costs
42,613
49,780
46,378
46,069
49,670
59,604
Other operating expenses
34,128
39,451
46,586
55,665
60,737
63,997
Pre-provision profit
99,151
88,156
1,09,751
1,20,056
1,34,942
1,54,154
Provisions
44,945
1,55,137
85,024
1,47,963
99,666
86,877
Profit before tax
54,206
-66,981
24,727
-27,907
35,276
67,277
Tax expense
20,222
-13,025
10,896
-3,589
7,761
16,819
Net profit
33,984
-53,955
13,831
-24,318
27,515
50,458
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
4,436
4,621
4,621
5,291
5,291
5,291
Reserves & surplus
3,93,918
3,97,369
3,98,412
4,28,644
4,52,032
4,94,921
Shareholders' funds
3,98,353
4,01,990
4,03,033
4,33,935
4,57,323
5,00,212
Borrowings
3,52,643
3,34,717
3,06,114
6,25,720
7,00,806
8,40,967
Deposits
61,75,595
57,40,379
60,16,752
59,13,148
64,45,332
70,25,411
Other liabilities & provisions
2,23,294
2,36,679
2,22,856
2,27,182
3,28,173
4,62,099
TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY
71,49,885
67,13,765
69,48,754
71,99,998
79,31,634
88,28,690
Cash and cash equivalent
14,83,532
13,39,003
15,04,699
9,28,974
11,42,314
12,45,122
Investments
12,23,197
12,04,505
12,96,305
16,31,845
16,11,333
17,56,353
Advances
42,80,651
38,37,702
38,32,592
42,74,318
47,87,236
54,09,577
Fixed & other assets
1,62,505
3,32,554
3,15,157
3,64,860
3,90,751
4,17,638
TOTAL ASSETS
71,49,885
67,13,765
69,48,754
71,99,998
79,31,634
88,28,690
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
BALANCE SHEET (INR Mn) SOURCES OF FUNDS Share capital
USES OF FUNDS
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 9
Bank Of Baroda Ltd KEY RATIOS
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
Advances (%)
7.8%
-10.3%
-0.1%
11.5%
12.0%
13.0%
Deposits (%)
8.6%
-7.0%
4.8%
-1.7%
9.0%
9.0%
Total assets (%)
8.4%
-6.1%
3.5%
3.6%
10.2%
11.3%
NII (%)
10.2%
-3.4%
6.1%
14.9%
12.2%
14.2%
Pre-provisioning profit (%)
6.7%
-11.1%
24.5%
9.4%
12.4%
14.2%
-25.2%
-258.8%
-125.6%
-275.8%
-213.1%
83.4%
Credit/Deposit (%)
69.3%
66.9%
63.7%
72.3%
74.3%
77.0%
CASA (%)
26.4%
26.4%
32.2%
35.8%
35.9%
36.3%
Advances/Total assets (%)
59.9%
57.2%
55.2%
59.4%
60.4%
61.3%
Leverage (x)
17.9
16.7
17.2
16.6
17.3
17.6
CAR (%)
12.7%
13.2%
12.2%
12.1%
11.5%
11.1%
CAR - Tier I (%)
9.9%
10.8%
9.9%
10.5%
10.0%
9.8%
43.6%
50.3%
45.9%
45.9%
45.0%
44.5%
Opex/total assets (%)
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
Opex/total interest earning assets (%)
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
NIM (%)
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
RoA (%)
0.5%
-0.8%
0.2%
-0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
RoE (%)
9.0%
-13.5%
3.4%
-5.8%
6.2%
10.5%
Gross NPA (%)
3.7%
10.0%
10.5%
12.3%
10.3%
8.9%
Net NPA (%)
1.9%
5.1%
4.7%
5.5%
4.4%
3.8%
50.4%
52.1%
57.7%
58.4%
60.0%
60.0%
Slippage (%)
2.2%
6.8%
3.9%
7.1%
2.5%
1.5%
Credit cost (%)
0.9%
3.5%
2.1%
3.5%
2.0%
1.5%
EPS (INR)
15.4
-23.4
6.0
-9.2
10.4
19.1
BV (INR)
180.1
174.5
174.9
164.0
172.9
189.1
ABV (INR)
143.6
90.2
96.5
75.3
93.1
111.8
P/E (x)
10.6
-6.3
28.8
-15.7
13.9
7.6
P/BV (x)
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
P/ABV (x)
1.1
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.3
Growth rates
PAT (%) Balance sheet ratios
Operating efficiency Cost/income (%)
Profitability
Asset quality
PCR (%)
Per share data / Valuation
Source: Company, KRChoksey Research
ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com
India Equity Institutional Research II
Result Update – Q4FY18
II 29th May, 2018
Page 10
Bank Of Baroda Ltd Rating Legend
Bank Of Baroda Ltd Date
CMP (INR)
TP (INR)
Recommendation
29-May-18 2-Feb-18 17-Nov-17 14-Aug-17 13-Feb-17 14-Nov-16 12-Aug-16 16-May-16 15-Feb-16 07-Non-15 12-May-15 3-Feb-15 3-Feb-15 7-Jan-15 31-Jul-14 9-Jul-14 14-May-14 9-Apr-14
145 169 185 142.7 188 161 146 144 114 169 158 188 188 212 177 165 175.6 151.2
168 226 190 190 205 180 173 173 140 194 200 215 215 220 208 212.8 208 159.4
BUY BUY BUY BUY ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE BUY ACCUMULATE BUY ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE HOLD BUY BUY BUY ACCUMULATE
Our Rating
Upside
Buy
More than 15%
Accumulate
5% - 15%
Hold
0 – 5%
Reduce
-5% – 0
Sell
Less than -5%
ANALYST CERTIFICATION: We, Raghav Garg (B.Com, M.Com (Applied Finance)), research analyst and Anushka Chhajed (B.com & CA), research associate, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & Conditions and other disclosures: KRChoksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd (hereinafter referred to as KRCSSPL) is a registered member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. KRCSSPL is a registered Research Entity vides SEBI Registration No. INH000001295 under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KRCSSPL and its associates (Group Companies) by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. KRCSSPL prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analyst covers. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by KRCSSPL and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KRCSSPL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KRCSSPL is not under any obligation to update the information. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KRCSSPL from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or KRCSSPL policies, in circumstances where KRCSSPL might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KRCSSPL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. KRCSSPL accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our employees in sales and marketing team, dealers and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, .In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Associates (Group Companies) of KRCSSPL might have received any commission/compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of brokerage services or specific transaction or for products and services other than brokerage services. KRCSSPL or its Associates (Group Companies) have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months KRCSSPL encourages the practice of giving independent opinion in research report preparation by the analyst and thus strives to minimize the conflict in preparation of research report. KRCSSPL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither KRCSSPL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that, Raghav Garg (B.Com, M.Com (Applied Finance)), research analyst and Anushka Chhajed (B.com & CA), research associate, author of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific brokerage service transactions. KRCSSPL or its associates (Group Companies) collectively or its research analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% (at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report) in the company covered by Analyst, and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by research analyst. It is confirmed that, Raghav Garg (B.Com, M.Com (Applied Finance)), research analyst and Anushka Chhajed (B.com & CA), research associate, do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other Jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject KRCSSPL and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform them of and to observe such restriction.
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ANALYST Raghav Garg,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5584 Anushka Chhajed,
[email protected], +91-22-6696 5620
KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ
+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com