Climate variability

Journal of Environmental Science and Management 11(2):14–31 (December 2008) ISSN 0119-1144

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Climate Variability and Extremes in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed, Philippines: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Practices Rose Jane J. Peras, Juan M. Pulhin, Rodel D. Lasco, Rex Victor O. Cruz and Florencia B. Pulhin ABSTRACT This paper provides a qualitative assessment of the impacts of climate variability and extremes to local communities in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed located in Northern Philippines. It also analyzes the local adaptation practices and their effectiveness in mitigating adverse impacts based on the experiences and perceptions of the local community themselves. The study revealed that strong typhoons, droughts (associated with El Niño) and delay onset of rainy season tend to have more harmful impacts to a greater number of farmers compared to other climate-related stressors. Impacts vary among different socio-economic groups with the poor farmers being the most adversely affected, and hence, more vulnerable. Similarly, adaptation practices and their effectiveness vary across socio-economic groups and geographic location. In general, while various local adaptation practices exist, these are either limited or ineffective to minimize adverse impacts especially among the poorer sector of the community. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the study to development planning and future research on adaptation. Key words: climate change, climate variability, climate extremes, adaptation

INTRODUCTION Apart from intraseasonal and interannual variability in climate, extreme weather events such as cyclones/typhoons, prolonged dry spells, and intense rainfall are known to cause adverse effects such as droughts and floods in tropical Asia. The Asia chapter of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Cruz et al. 2007) warned that a higher frequency of intense extreme events all across Asia is highly possible as a result of the projected global warming and will likely affect adversely both the human and natural systems. In the Philippines, watershed areas are among those likely to be adversely affected by climate change (Pulhin et al. 2008). Watersheds are critical to sustainable economic development and environmental protection. More than 70 % of the country’s total land area lies within watersheds, including much of the remaining natural forests, which provide a host of environmental services. An estimated 1.5 million ha or more of agricultural lands presently derive irrigation water from these watersheds. Watersheds are also the source of hydroelectric power which is one of the major

sources of the country’s power supply, contributing to as much as 17.5% of the total electric power generated in 2006 (DOE 2006). Moreover, around 20 to 24 million people– close to a third of the country’s total population– inhabit the uplands, where the majority depend on watershed resources for survival (Pulhin et al. 2008). This paper examines the impacts of climate variability and extremes to local communities in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed located in Northern Philippines as well as the effectiveness of their adaptation practices to mitigate negative impacts. It attempts to provide answers to the following research questions:

• What are the climate variability and extremes experienced by the local communities in the last four decades and what are their socioeconomic impacts? • Which socio-economic groups in the upper watershed experienced the most negative impacts and what are the reasons for their vulnerability?

Journal of Environmental Science and Management Vol. 11. No. 2 (December 2008)

• What are the adaptation practices of the local communities and how effective are these practices? • What conclusions and implications could be drawn from the Philippine experience that could enhance adaptive capacity of local communities to climate variability and extremes? The paper is divided into five parts. Following this introduction, section two describes the context of Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed in terms of its biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics as well as historical circumstances. This is followed by a brief discussion on the research methods employed by the study relevant to the above-mentioned questions. Section four presents the results and discussion. It describes the climate variability and extremes as observed by the local communities in the upper watershed and their impacts to the socio-economic condition of the households and various groups. It also analyzes

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the adaptation practices employed by the local communities as well as the effectiveness of these practices. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the study to development planning and future research on adaptation. The Pantabangan–Carranglan Watershed Physical characteristics The Pantabangan–Carranglan Watershed which lies between 15°44’ and 16°88’ north latitude and 120°36’ and 122°00’ east longitude (Figure 1), is located in the municipalities of Pantabangan and Carranglan in the province of Nueva Ecija, municipalities of Alfonso Castañeda and Dupax del Sur in the province of Nueva Vizcaya, and municipality of Maria Aurora in the province of Aurora. The watershed is about 170 km away from Manila (Saplaco et al. 2001) and covers a total land area of 97, 318 ha.

Figure 1: Location of the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed in Luzon Island, Philippines.

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Climate Variability and Extremes in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed, Philippines: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Practices

The watershed is considered critical for it supports a multi-purpose dam for irrigation and hydroelectric generation. It provides water for domestic and industrial uses and serves to tame the floodwaters of Central Luzon. The watershed has a total service area of 102,532 ha, and supplies the irrigation requirements of 24 municipalities in the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan and Pampanga. Around 62,039 farmers are dependent on the watershed for farm irrigation needs (NIAUPRIIS 2004). The 100,000 kilowatts of hydroelectric power generated by the watershed supplies the electricity within and in the adjacent region of Central Luzon (National Power Corporation (NPC) 1997). The Pantabangan–Carranglan Watershed area largely falls under the Philippine Climatic Type I, with two pronounced seasons, namely, dry from December to April and wet the rest of the year. A small portion of the watershed, especially those at the boundary of the province of Aurora, falls under Climatic Type II, characterized

by no dry season and very pronounced maximum rainfall from November to January. Its average annual rainfall based from 1960 to 1999 measurements in four gauging stations within and adjacent to the watershed area ranges from around 1,800 to 2,300 mm (Saplaco et al. 2001). Monthly temperature ranges from 23°C to 34°C, while the average annual relative humidity is 83% (NPC 1995, 1997). Forestlands, open grasslands and reforestation sites are the major land use types found in the watershed (Figure 2). Vegetation in the watershed is predominantly second growth. Only a miscellany of primary forest can still be found in the watershed, which is caused by the logging boom in the 1960s (Saplaco et al. 2001). Nevertheless, there was an increase in the area of reforested sites, although these sites are now under intense pressure from increasing population. Residential and barangay (smallest unit of local government) sites, as well as cultivated areas, are included in the alienable and disposable areas.

Figure 2. Major land uses in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed.

Administration, demographic economic characteristics

and

socio-

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), National Irrigation Administration (NIA) and National Power Corporation (NPC) are the three national government agencies that spearhead the management of the Pantabangan–Carranglan Watershed (NPC, 2003). Each institution has specific areas within the watershed that is under its jurisdiction (Figure 3). National Power Corporation (NPC) has a total area of 14,166 ha of the Watershed covering Daldalayap, Bunga, Carranglan, of Sector I, Burgos, Carranglan of Sector II and Conversion, Pantabangan of Sector III. National Irrigation Administration (NIA) on the other hand, manages Ma. Aurora, Aurora, Alfonso-Castañeda, Nueva Vizcaya, Carranglan and Pantabangan, Nueva Ecija (NIACOMBISCON 2003). DENR Region 3 ( Cent ral Luzon) Office cover s the whole

watershed with two Provincial Environment and Natural Resources Office and Community Environment and Natural Resources Officers that manage the watershed (Lasco and Boer 2006). This institutional arrangement comes from the need to sustainably manage the watershed so that there will be sufficient water in the reservoir for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation (Cruz 2003). The local government in the area supports these institutions in carrying out their functions. In particular, the 1991 Local Government Code instituted the devolution process that mandated the local government units (LGUs) to conserve, manage, and protect the natural resources. A total of 36 barangays are found in the Pantabangan–Carranglan Watershed, of which 17 are in Carrangalan, 14 in Pantabangan, 3 in Alfonso Castañeda, and 2 in Ma. Aurora (Figure 3). As of 2007, about 65,000 people reside in the watershed (National Statistics Office 2007).

National Irrigation Administration National Power Corporation

Figure 3: Municipality and barangay boundaries and jurisdication of major institutions within the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed.

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Long before the Spanish reign in the country, three ethnic groups, namely, the Aetas, Irol-les, and the Italengs, inhabited the watershed. The Pangasinense, Ibaloi, Ifugao, Waray, Bicolano, Pampango, Kalinga, Kankanai, Ibanag, Cebuano, and Ilongot soon joined these earlier settlers. However, the construction of the Pantabangan Dam in 1971 has led to the relocation of the residents of the town and caused outmigration from 1970s to 1980s. The human-made lake that forms part of the Pantabangan Dam reservoir has submerged the old Pantabangan town and seven outlying barangays (Saplaco et al. 2001). All residents of the old town were resettled in the upper portion of Pantabangan. Today, the residents in the watershed are mostly Tagalog and Ilocano. Other groups that have settled in the area are Pangasinense, Pampango, Waray, Bicol, Ifugao, and Ibaloi (Saplaco et al. 2001). The municipalities of Pantabangan and Carranglan comprise the largest portion of the watershed, where agriculture is the major source of livelihood. Around 5,400 ha (12% of the total land area) in Pantabangan and 19,700 ha (28% of the total land area) in Carranglan are used for agriculture. Among the major agricultural crops produced in these areas are rice, corn, onion, and vegetables. However, even if the watershed reservoir itself is located in Pantabangan, the municipality only acts as host for irrigation water serviced to Central Luzon. The farmlands are unirrigated due to topography; hence, farmers are dependent on rain (Master Plan of the Municipality of Pantabangan 1998–2000, Development Master Plan of the Municipality of Carrangalan 2003– 2007). Fishing is the second largest industry in the two municipalities, of which much is located in Pantabangan. This is because the area houses the dam reservoir, which is one of the biggest fishing reservoirs in Asia. The municipality of Carranglan, on the other hand, depends on large fishponds for their fish production. Other sources of income are cottage and business activities, which include wood and rattan craft, animal dispersal, and small stores (Master Plan of the Municipality of Pantabangan 1998–2000, Development Master Plan of the Municipality of Carranglan 2003– 2007).

Though the majority of the productive population of Pantabangan and Carranglan are in the labor force, unemployment remains a main problem due to limited employment opportunities in these areas (Master Plan of the Municipality of Pantabangan 1998–2000, Development Master Plan of the Municipality of Carrangalan 2003– 2007). Thus, many residents depend on the goods and services provided by the watershed for their livelihood, such as the commonly practiced slash-and-burn farming or kaingin and charcoalmaking. With the construction of the dam, support services received from various agencies and institutions continually bring projects or programs to the area with the objectives of raising the economic conditions of the relocated settlers, reforestation and protection of the watershed (Toquero 2003). Among the major projects implemented in the watershed include: 1) the RPJapan Reforestation Project from 1976 to 1992; 2) Philippine Government Regular Reforestation Program covering a total area of 823 ha; 3) Integrated Social Forestry Program which reforested about 856 ha; 4) World Bank-funded Watershed Management and Erosion Control Project implemented from 1980 to 1988; 5) Philippine Government Contract Reforestation Program involving 900 ha implemented by NIA from 1989 to 1990; and 6) the Casecnan Multipurpose and Irrigation Project, which began its operation in 2001 (Master Plan of the Municipality of Pantabangan 1998–2000). In addition, NPC and NIA also carry out training and extension services, while NPC conducts regular reforestation projects covering an average of 30–40 ha a year (Pulhin et al. 2007). The various projects and programs above have significantly helped the residents in the watershed through the provision of jobs, livelihood, and various forms of assistance. However, widespread poverty remained a major problem in the resettlement area, where a high percentage of families have an income below the 2003 annual per capita poverty threshold of Php13,501 (around US$ 330). This is despite the threedecade development efforts of the government (amounting to PhP 1.5 billion or around US$ 36 M). Moreover, the residents perceived the services

provided by the government organizations to be unsatisfactory, an indication that the government failed in providing an economically viable resettlement area for the residents. This failure could be attributed to the lack of participation of the residents in the planning and monitoring of the development projects or programs. The unfamiliarity of some residents to the introduced livelihood activities cause them to engage in open kaingin or slash-and-burn in the critical watershed (Toquero 2003). The development projects and programs may have also resulted in the dependency of some people on these forms of assistance and even to the goods and services provided by the watershed for their source of living. The completion of these development projects and programs has also seen the local settlers resorting to charcoalmaking, which destroys the areas that they reforested. What aggravates the situation is that this type of livelihood is practiced by more than 50% of the residents in the watershed (F. D. Toquero personal communication 2005).

Secondary data gathering Available secondary information on the biophysical and socio-economic aspects of the watershed were gathered from relevant agencies and synthesized to understand the local and regional context of the local communities’ impacts and adaptations to climate variability and extremes. Sources of information include municipal and provincial development plans, sociodemographic statistics from the National Statistics Office, atlas and other maps from various sources, project documents, and other pertinent information from different government organizations such as NIA, NPC, DENR, and municipal and provincial LGUs. Meanwhile, climatic data, such as rainfall, temperature, records of El Niño and La Niña episodes, and other natural calamities that occurred in the area were obtained from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the weather stations near the watershed. These data were collected on a historical basis.

RESEARCH METHODS Household survey This study forms part of the Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) Philippine case study which employed a combination of social research methods aside from modeling techniques and geographic information system (GIS) used in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on forests and water and their vulnerability. For the local community assessment which is largely the focus of this paper, the research methods employed were: analysis of secondary data, household survey and key informant interviews, use of participatory rural appraisal techniques, development of multilevel index to vulnerability of households to climate variability and extremes, mapping of vulnerable areas and multi-stakeholder workshops (AIACC Terminal Report 2006, Pulhin et al. 2008). The following topic briefly discusses the methods used in the assessment of impacts and adaptation to climate variability and extremes of the local communities.

A household survey was conducted to determine the impacts of climate variability and extremes to households as well as the different adaptation practices they employ. It made use of a pre-tested interview schedule that sought information on the following: 1) socio-economic profile of the respondent; 2) household’s use and benefits from the Pantabangan–Carranglan Watershed; 3) climate variability and extremes experienced in the last few decades and their impacts; and 4) adaptation practices. The survey covered the four municipalities of the three different provinces encompassing the watershed. These are Pantabangan and Carranglan in Nueva Ecija, Alfonso Castañeda in Nueva Vizcaya, and Ma. Aurora in Aurora. Twenty-six of the 36 barangays within the watershed were covered. Ten barangays were not included since only a very small portion of their respective areas is found within the watershed and thus a small number of residents, too. A total of 373 respondents were randomly selected using

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barangay records. The sampling technique employed was adopted from Chua (1999), which allows a 0.05 permissible error and 95% confidence interval level. Sixteen respondents were not included in the final analysis due to incomplete information or questionable entries in the interview schedule. Key informant interviews were also conducted among key officials of NIA, NPC, DENR, and LGUs to validate the information collected as well as to probe deeper on the issues that emerged during the research process. Application of participatory rural appraisal techniques Focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted in 21 barangays to complement the household survey and determine the impacts and adaptation practices of various socio-economic groups at the community level. Of the 26 barangays included in the household survey, invited representatives from four barangays did not show up during the scheduled discussions. A minimum age of 40, equal distribution of males and females, and presence of representatives from the different socioeconomic groups in the area were considered in the selection of participants. The FGDs employed a combination of participatory techniques such as timeline analysis, stakeholder analysis, and participatory assessment of impacts and adaptation practices (see Pulhin 2002 for in-depth discussions of these techniques). Timeline analysis was used to determine the climate variability and extremes that the local communities experienced from 1960s to present. A combination of stakeholder analysis and participatory assessment of impacts and adaptation practices was performed to determine the impacts of these climatic events to various socioeconomic groups and the effectiveness of their adaptation practices. Multi-stakeholder workshops Three local multi-sectoral workshops were conducted to validate the results of the study, and served as well to disseminate the existing findings and discuss planning strategies to enhance local adaptation practices and adaptive capacity. These

were attended by representatives from the different watershed stakeholders, including members of local communities, DENR, NPC, NIA, LGUs, non-government organizations (NGOs), people’s organizations (POs) and academic institutions. Information generated from these workshops was integrated into the AIACC Philippine case study and presented in a policy workshop conducted at the national level. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Socio-economic Profile of the Respondents Table 1 summarizes the socio-economic characteristics of the households in the watershed based on the results of the survey. The average age of the respondents is 44 years old, which shows that, in general, the respondents have considerable experiences with regards to the occurrence of climate variability and extremes in the area. There is adequate gender representation with about 44% female respondents. All respondents have some degree of formal education. The majority (70%) are also native to the different municipalities in the watershed. The survey considered a total sample size of 373 (Table 2). The average annual family income of the respondents for the year 2003 is PhP 61,600. This is lower than the 2003 poverty line for a family of five for rural areas in Nueva Ecija computed at PhP 67,505. Farming is the major source of income for more than half of the respondents (65%), which indicates the high level of dependence of the local communities on watershed resources. The majority of the farmers (53%) are “little farmers” cultivating less than 1 ha of land. While around two-thirds (215 respondents) of the 329 respondents claimed ownership to their lands, the rest are either tenants, lessees, etc. hence do not enjoy the full benefits of farm production. Of those who own their lands, only 50% (114) have title, thus are able to sell or mortgage their land to the bank should such a need arises. More than three-fourths of the farmers (76.7%) practice mono-cropping with rice as the most common crop produced by 88% of the farmers. This lone approach makes them highly vulnerable to both climate and market-related and risks, as will be explained later in the paper.

Table 1. Summary of basic socio-economic characteristics of the respondents. Category Average age (N=354) Gender distribution (N=358) Male Female Educational level (N=351) Elementary High School College

Frequency

Percent

44 years old 201 157

56.2% 43.8%

143 142 66

40.7% 40.5% 18.8%

Ethnic affiliation (N=359) Native Migrants

152 107

70.2% 29.8%

Average family income (N=374) Total Income Farm Income

PhP 61,600 PhP 42,032

Major sources of income (N=338) Farming Small enterprises (e.g. sari-sari store) Employment Fishing Others (hired labor, driver, forest products gathering, etc.)

221 35 32 23 27

65.4% 10.4% 9.5% 6.8% 8.0%

164 73 36 33

53.6% 23.9% 11.8% 10.8%

215 63 19 17 15

65.3% 19.1% 5.8% 5.2% 4.5%

114 68 35 13

49.6% 29.6% 15.2% 5.6%

198 25 21 14

76.7% 9.7% 8.1% 5.4%

Farm sizes of cultivated land (N=306) 3 ha Types of land ownership (N=329) Owner Tenant Lessee Possession Others (Mortgage, amortization) Tenure types of cultivated lands (N=230) Title CSC/CLOA/NIA Agreement Tax declaration Others (Agreement, right, amortization) Agricultural/farm practices of farmers (N=258) Mono-cropping Crop rotation Agroforestry or mixed copping Crop diversification

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Table 2. Result of the Socio-Economic Component Household Survey. Municipality

Number of Respondents

Table 3. Major climate events identified by participants in focus group discussions. Year

Climate Variability and Extremes

1974

Typhoon Didang

1978

Destructive typhoon Kading

1979–1980

Drought/El Niño

1982–1983

El Niño

1984

Prolonged/Intense rains

Past Climate Variability and Extremes in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed

1989

Delay in the onset of rainy season

1997–1999

El Niño

Considering the watershed’s geographic location, it can be said that all communities living there are significantly exposed to natural hazards particularly climate variability and extremes. Data collected from PAGASA revealed that from 1980 to 1995, a total of 58 strong typhoons– an average of about four typhoons per year – passed through the area. In addition, three major drought episodes (El Niño) occurred within the said period, with an average interval of only about four years between episodes. These drought episodes occurred in 1983, 1987 and 1991, the three years with the lowest total annual rainfall and water inflow in the period 1980– 2001. In a recent study by David et al. (2007) on the relative vulnerability of the different provinces of the Philippines to El Niño, Nueva Ecija was identified among the seven provinces in the country with the highest vulnerability index.

2000


2001

Early onset of rainy season

2002


2003

Early onset of rainy season

1 2 3 4

Pantanbangan, N.E. Alfonso-Catañeda, N.V. Ma. Aurora, Aurora Carranglan, N.E. TOTAL

133 23 15 202 373

Table 3 lists the major events identified by the participants from the FGDs conducted when asked to recollect past climate variations and extremes that they experienced. The FGD participants recalled two particularly strong typhoons that occurred in the 1970s, with local names Kading and Didang, which left an indelible mark in their minds because of the great destruction that they brought to the communities within the watershed. Respondents also noted several indications of El Niño episodes in 1977-78, 1979-1980, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, which corresponded with El Niño events recorded by PAGASA (Figure 4). Prolonged rains were also observed by the respondents in 1984, which also marked the occurrence of a weak La Niña event.

Climate extremes such as El Niño, La Niña and typhoon have been increasingly observed by household respondents starting in the later part of 1990s (Peras 2005). Similarly, greater variability in the onset of the rainy season has been observed since the latter part of 1990s, making the onset of rains less predictable. This is consistent with the findings of the Asia chapter of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on the observed increase in inter-annual variability in the onset of rainfall in the Philippines since 1990s (Cruz et al. 2007). Forest fires have been more frequent in the area since the 1980s. Between 1980 and 1988, DENR recorded an average of 43 forest fires annually in the Pantabangan–Carranglan Watershed, damaging a total area of 25,783 ha over nine years. The household survey meanwhile revealed that a large number of respondents observed more forest fires from 1998 to 2003, although data from DENR was not available to determine the extent of damage during this period. While the high frequency of forest fires coincided with the almost cyclic occurrences of climate variability and extremes, such as El Niño and delays in the onset of the rainy season, greater fire frequency cannot be attributed to climate factors with high confidence. This is because most forest fires, according to the respondents, were set off intentionally by people practicing kaingin (slash-and-burn farming) and charcoal-making-- activities that have been seen to increase since the 1980s.

3 2

1980

-2

1981

1982

1983

1984

1986

1987

1988

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

JAS

OND

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

JFM

1985

AMJ

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

JAS

OND

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

-1

JAS

JFM

0

OND

1

AMJ

El Niño (1-3) or La Niña (-1 - -3) event

4

1989

-3 -4 Ye ar

3 2

-2

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

JAS

AMJ

JFM

OND

-1

JAS

0

AMJ

1 JFM

El Niño (1-3) and La Niña (-1 - -3) event

4

1999

-3 -4 Year

Legend: 3 = strong El Niño event; 2 = moderate El Niño event; 1 = weak El Niño event, -3 = strong La Niña event; -2 = moderate La Niña event; -1 = weak La Niña event, 0 = no El Niño or La Niña event Figure 4. El Niño and La Niña events recorded by PAGASA from 1980-1999 (Source: Lasco & Boer, 2006).

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Impacts of Climate Variability and Extremes Based on household interviews revealed, all forms of climate variability and extremes have negative impacts to farming, especially on rice production, in all municipalities within the watershed. This supports the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), as well as the general lessons gleaned from the overall AIACC Project implemented around the world (Leary et al. 2007), which indicated that the agricultural sector is one of the most adversely affected by climate change. Also, adversely affected is Carranglan followed by Pantabangan, where most of the community members are rice farmers whose livelihood is highly dependent on favorable climatic conditions. Of the different forms of climate variability and extremes, strong typhoons, droughts associated with El Niño episodes, and delayed onset of rainy season tend to bring harm to a greater number of farmers compared to La Niña (intense rain), early onset of rainy season, and prolonged rain (Table 4). This seems to indicate that in general, the absence or limited supply of water during El Niño and delayed onset of rainy season have more adverse impacts to a greater number of farmers in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed compared to over supply of water during La Niña and prolonged rains. In the case of Carranglan, for instance, rice farms are mostly dependent on irrigation. Thus, the reduction in the volume of water adversely affected their farming schedule and also resulted in decreased production. On the other hand, early onset of rainy season and prolonged rains brought positive impacts to rice production of some farmers as shown in the increased production and income of some 39% and 20% farmerrespondents, respectively. It is possible that the early onset of rainy season enabled some farmers to plant and harvest earlier and sells their produce at a relatively higher price at the time when supply may still be limited. They can also plant more crops to take advantage of the early availability of water. Some farmers reported that the increase in their income could be as high as 33% when the rain comes early. Prolonged rains may as well permit some farmers to plant rice or other cash crops even at the latter part of the planting season contributing to an increase in their income.

Although the exact value of damages inflicted by past climate-related events in the watershed is hard to quantify, household survey and the results of the FGDs affirm that significant losses have been incurred. These losses include human lives, property and infrastructure, and sources of livelihood, especially farmlands and fishing areas. Pronounced decreases in crop yields have been observed in years with climate patterns that are unfavorable for the region’s agriculture. For instance, records from the NIA indicate that rice yield fell by more than two cavans (1 cavan = 50kg) per hectare below average in both the wet and dry season cropping periods of 1990 as a result of drought and typhoons. Individual yield changes, however, can vary substantially from the average, and locals reported that crop loss from droughts and floods can be as much as 100 % for individual farms (Pulhin et al. 2008). Based on household interviews, farmer respondents estimated that total lost from climate extremes like La Niña (which brings flooding in the area) can be as high as PhP 400,000 (Table 5). Among the three climate extremes (El Niño, La Niña, and typhoon) that affect the area, it appears that El Niño has the highest negative impact in terms of income lost followed by La Niña, and typhoon, respectively. The average income loss of farmers from El Niño based on the experience of 112 farmer-respondents was estimated at PhP28,810 (US$702). This represents 68.54% of the average household farm income in 2003. While the figure is indeed high and alarming, it may in fact be a conservative estimate of the real adverse impact of climate variability and extremes in the area since it is based only on a single climate event. In reality, climate variability and extremes may be experienced by farmers in the area one after the other within the same year, hence their impacts to local communities are compounded and therefore more adverse compared to the current estimates. Indeed, some community members are so vulnerable that even before they can fully recover from the adverse impacts of previous events, another calamity will strike again and force them back to their original desperate condition. Based on the FGDs the impacts of climate

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Journal of Environmental Science and Management Vol. 11. No. 2 (December 2008) Table 5. Estimated total income loss of farmers during extreme events (in Philippine Peso, PhP). Range of Losses per Event El Nino (N=112) 100,000 Total Minimum loss Maximum loss Average loss La Nina (N = 69) 100,000 Total Minimum loss Maximum loss Average loss Typhoon (N = 75) 100,000 Total Minimum loss Maximum loss Average loss

Pantabangan

Carranglan

Ma. Aurora

Freq

Freq

%

Freq

%

Freq

%

Freq

%

34 26 2 7 10 90

2

2

4 2 1

4 2 1

1

1 2

1 8

1 5

57 32 4 9 10 112

51 29 4 8 9 100

3

4

3

4

3

4

3

4

42 18 3 4 2 69

61 26 4 6 3 100

2

3

42 14 6 8 1 2 2 75

56 19 8 11 1 3 3 100

13 8 1 2 1 25

6 8

14

6 4 2 2

14

%

12 38 7 22 1 2 2 6 1 8 22 76 PhP 500 PhP 350,000 PhP 28,810 9 12

30 10 3 4 2 49

43 14 4 6 3 58

34 9 4 6 1

45 12 5 8 1

2 56

3 75

17 PhP 50 PhP 400,000 PhP 26,404 8 5 3 3

19 PhP 200 PhP 200,000 PhP 24,655

variability and extremes vary across different socioeconomic groups (Table 6). Of the different groups identified by the FGD participants themselves, small farmers are the most adversely affected. This is consistent with the work of Selvaraju et al. (2004) where climate variability has a major influence on the agricultural production of smallholder farmers in India. Both the farmers in the Pantabangan-Carranglan and India experienced decline in crop production and income during adverse climate conditions. In addition, farmers in Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed experienced reduction in food

3

2

3

AlfonsoCastañeda

1

1

2

3

3

4

Total

availability and livelihood sources. They also observed an increasing incidence of diarrhea, malaria and dengue fever, which particularly affect the children. This is consistent with the experience in Malawi, where infant malnutrition and chronic ailments associated with malaria, cholera and diarrhea occur as a result of droughts and floods (Nangoma 2007). WWF’s (2006) review of scientific literature highlighted the findings made by Githeko and Ndegwa (2001) and Zhou et al. (2004) that rainfall and unusually high maximum temperatures are positively correlated with the number of malaria cases.

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According to the World Health Organization (2003) projection, malaria is expected to increase and spread to colder areas as temperatures increase. The FGD participants also revealed that more debts are incurred by the small farmers especially the landless during extreme climate conditions. On the other hand, rich farmers who have control over many aspects of production have the capacity to anticipate and prepare for and/or cushion the negative impacts of extremes and variable climate conditions, and therefore the degree of negative effects experienced is far less than that of the small farmers. In case of huge economic loss, they also have greater ability to recover since they have access and control over aspects of production such as land, labor, machinery, financial capital, and technology. Few rich farmers can even take advantage of adverse climate conditions by storing foods, seeds and fertilizers or by lending money with high interest rates, and hence gain in the process. On the other hand, average farmers and fishermen are moderately affected by extreme climate in the same manner as employees and small entrepreneurs.

Adaptation Practices and Effectiveness For the purpose of this study, adaptation practices pertain to strategies/mechanisms that farmers employ to minimize or reduce the adverse impacts of climate variability and extremes, which might ultimately enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability to these phenomena. Negative impacts tend to compound when the adaptation practices being employed are ineffective since time, money and efforts are also needed in many of these practices. Household survey shows that the respondents employed a maximum of eight (8) adaptation practices whenever households’ food, water, livelihood and health are at risk from climate variability and extremes (Table 7). Almost 74% of the respondents reduce their consumption in food and water as a form of adaptation. Although, it is hard to prove that praying reduces adverse impacts, still it is the second most common adaptation practice of the respondents since they believed that divine guidance has helped them cope with all kinds of problems, may it be climaterelated or not. Praying, however, is not a peculiar

Table 6. Summary of impacts of climate variability and extremes to various socioeconomic groups as perceived by FGD participants based on certain qualitative indicators. Description Socioeconomic Groups* Small Farmers Average Farmers Employees/ Small Rich Farmers and and Fishermen Entrepreneurs Overseas Workers College or high-school College or high-school Finished elementary General socioMostly with low graduates; more access graduates, some economic educational attainment, education or reached access to productive and control over characteristics no farmland or capital, high school; some productive resources, very low income, almost access to productive resources, such as including appropriate resources such as land, land, capital, and no access to other capital, and technology technology linkages productive resources Overall impacts Decline in crop Decline in crop/fish Increase in prices Decline in production of climate production and income, harvest and income, of commodities; and income; no variability and food availability, and food availability, decline in sales for change in food extremes livelihood sources; livelihood sources; small entrepreneurs; availability, health condition health condition may no adverse impact livelihood, and affected; more debt or may not be affected on food availability health incurred especially and health condition by landless farmers Degree of negative impacts

High

Moderate

Low to Moderate

Low to no adverse impact

* Socioeconomic groups were based on the identified sectors during the FGDs conducted in the Pantabangan-Caranglan Watershed. Source: Pulhin et al. (2008)

Journal of Environmental Science and Management Vol. 11. No. 2 (December 2008) adaptation strategy amongst farmers in developing countries in response to harsh climate condition. In the African region, Maddison (2007) and Nhemachena and Hassan (2007) noted that farmers also considered praying as an adaptation strategy although probably not as common compared to the practice of the PantabanganCarrangalan farmers in the Philippines. About 59% of the respondents availed of loans/credit to increase farm inputs, particularly fertilizer and water generation, which is an added cost for the farmers. Other strategies employed are: storing food, firewood, medicine, and water; community and kinship ties; off-farm work; government/NGO assistance; establishment of treebelts/wind breaks/hedgerows; crop diversification; asset disposal; and the ability to forecast natural hazards/disasters based on community’s/ indigenous traditional knowledge. A closer look at the municipalities revealed that the respondents in Pantabangan (76%), Carranglan (72%) and Ma. Aurora (94%) reduced their consumption, except in Alfonso-Castañeda where treebelts/windbreaks/hedgerows (86%) and storing food, firewood, medicine and water (86%) are the most commonly practiced strategies. The town of Alfonso-Castañeda faces the sea; consequently, windbreaks and treebelts were established to break the intensity of wind. In the other three towns, this is not a problem since they are surrounded by mountains and forests, particularly in the towns of Pantabangan and Carranglan where only a small number of respondents use treebelts/windbreaks/hedgerows. However, this may also be due to the cutting of trees in these towns for fuelwood and charcoal. Other than prayer, availing of loans is also popular among the respondents. More than half of the respondents in the four towns are found to avail of loans/credit not necessarily from formal financial institutions like banks but mostly from individuals, such as neighbors or relatives. At least half of the respondents in the four towns seek help from their community and kin which means that social capital plays an important role in the households’ adaptation process. Relatives, friends and neighbors serve as the support group, from which the respondents can turn into to help

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cope with the adverse effects of climate variability and extremes. Involvement in off-farm work is also a common strategy, which is practiced by about 33% of the respondents. Most of the respondents look for work outside their town as factory worker, saleslady, housemaid, construction worker, among others. In times of calamity, local communities also sought the assistance of government and non-government organizations especially after typhoons and the occurrence of droughts and floods for immediate relief. Under extreme cases, households may be compelled to dispose their assets like farm animals to support their family. The FGDs also suggested that adaptation practices vary among different socio-economic groups depending on the nature of their occupation and availability of resources. In general, small farmers tend to employ more adaptation practices as compared to average farmers and fishermen, employees and small entrepreneurs, and rich farmers (Table 8). However, unlike the three other groups whose adaptation practices are mostly considered to be effective, a number of the adaptation practices of small farmers are ineffectual which may have compounded the negative impacts of climate variability and extremes to them. A good example of this is the high interest loans which they usually avail of from the rich farmers in case of extreme climate conditions. While this helps them in the immediate term, a number of the poor farmers also claimed during the FGDs that in the long-run, the situation buried them into deeper indebtedness. On the other hand, since other groups especially the rich farmers have better adaptation options due to availability of resources, their adaptation practices are more effective and thus are able to minimize the adverse impacts of climate variability and extremes. In some instances, they are even able to take advantage of the situation like storing their produce and selling them during extreme climate conditions when supplies are limited and prices are high. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The adverse impacts of climate variability and extremes are increasingly felt in most parts of Southeast Asia over the last decades. In the


28

Table 7. Adaptation practices employed by upland communities in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed during variable and extreme climates. Adaptation Pratices

Pantabangan (N=137)

Carranglan (N=198)

Ma. Aurora (N=17)

AlfonsoCastañeda (N=22)

Total (N=374)

Freq*

%

Freq*

%

Freq*

%

Freq*

%

Freq*

%

Reduced consumption Pray or make offerings to Anito

104

75.91

143

72.22

16

94.12

15

68.18

278

74.33

88

64.23

126

63.64

10

58.82

16

72.73

240

64.17

Avail of loans/ credit facility Store food, firewood, medicine and water

79

57.66

119

60.10

10

58.82

13

59.09

221

59.09

70

51.09

120

60.61

7

41.18

19

86.36

216

57.77

Community and kinship ties Off-farm work NGO assistance Treebelts/wind breaks/Hedgerows Crop diversification Asset disposal Forecast natural hazards/disasters based from community’s/ indigenous traditional knowledge

72

52.55

86

43.43

7

41.18

11

50.00

176

47.06

49 33 36

35.77 24.09 26.28

60 71 36

30.30 35.86 18.18

5 7 2

29.41 41.18 11.76

8 6 19

36.36 27.27 86.36

122 117 93

32.62 31.28 24.87

39 33 16

28.47 24.09 11.68

42 44 9

21.21 22.22 4.55

6 2

35.29 11.76

4 5 8

18.18 22.73 36.36

91 84 33

24.33 22.46 8.82

* multiple responses

Philippines, the poor farmers living in watershed areas– as in the case of the PantabanganCaranglan Watershed examined in this study– are among the most adversely affected, and therefore, more vulnerable to these natural phenomena. Findings of the study reveal that strong typhoons, droughts (associated with El Niño) and delay onset of rainy season tend to bring more harmful impacts to a greater number of farmers compared to other climate stressors. Impacts vary among different socio-economic groups with the poor farmers being the most adversely affected, thus the more vulnerable group in the community. This finding supports existing literature in the developing country that the poor sector is usually the more vulnerable groups to climate change (Leary et al. 2007). Their vulnerability may be partly attributed to lack of capital assets such as land, financial capital, education, and access to

social services including low interest loan, marketing assistance, among others. Similarly, adaptation practices and their effectiveness vary across socio-economic groups and geographic location. In general, while various local adaptation practices exist, they are either limited or ineffective to minimize adverse impacts especially among the poorer sector of the community. A number of implications stems from the results of this study which have relevance to development planning and future research on adaptation. First, is the need to better understand the dynamics and combined impacts of various forms of climate variability and extremes to local communities– which usually hit them one after the other– as basis for development planning. Most socio-economic studies on climate variability and extremes have focused on a single event like El Niño (e.g. David et al. 2007, Datt and Hoogeveen 2003, Ding et al. 2005, Espaldon and

Journal of Environmental Science and Management Vol. 11. No. 2 (December 2008) Yao 1999, Glantz 2001, Kirono and Tapper 1999 Kishore et al. 2001, Chinvanno et al. 2007) neglecting the impacts of other climate stressors like typhoons, La Niña and early or late onset of rainy season. In the Philippines and in many places in Asia, the combined impacts of these series of events to local communities are debilitating and yet are less understood. This requires going beyond the traditional climate/ weather monitoring usually done by government agencies like PAGASA to include long-term socio-economic monitoring of climate-related impacts at the household and community levels, as well as impact assessment among different socio-economic groups. The second implication relates to the importance of determining the limits and barriers to effective adaptation at the individual/ household and societal level as a requisite for mainstreaming adaptation in development projects. Based on the Pantabangan-Carranglan experience, it appears that the employment of adaptation practices at the local level is largely determined by their “accessibility” or “availability” to the local communities. Among the most frequently employed adaptation practices are those which the households can readily employ such as reduction in consumption and prayer. While the effectiveness of these adaptation practices are yet to be determined, this indicates that the employment of other adaptation practices which may be equally if not more effective may be hindered by a number of factors such as costs and their availability. Limits and barriers for effective adaptation should therefore be further examined before appropriate adaptation practices can be mainstreamed in development projects. Third, is the necessity for bottom-up assessment and planning and for participatory action-research that engages the different stakeholders particularly the local communities to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity of the poor and marginalized sector. This is considering the fact that adaptation practices vary across socio-economic groups and geographic location, therefore no “one fits all” effective adaptation practice. Further, since most local communities know more about the local situation and have accumulated wealth of

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knowledge and experience including indigenous knowledge system, engaging them in assessment, planning and research will not only be beneficial to outsiders but also empowering to them (Espaldon et al. 2007 in press, Macchi 2008). Finally, is the need to incorporate climate proofing in all development projects of the different government agencies as well as the civil society. Central to this is the need to further the campaign, planning, and implementation of effective adaptation measures on the ground. This also includes the need to advocate and lobby for appropriate climate change policy at the national level to guide, coordinate, and support all climaterelated programs and projects in the country. REFERENCES Chinvanno, S., S. Boulidam, T. Inthavong, S. Souvannalath, B. Lersupavithnapa, V. Kerdsuk, and N.T.H. Thuan. 2008: Climate Risks and Rice Farming the in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In: Climate Change and Vulnerabilty (eds. N. Leary, C. Conde, J. Kulkarni, A. Nyong and J. Pulhin). Earthscan: London, Sterling, VA, pp. 333-350. Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh. 2007. Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (eds. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 469-506. Datt, G. and H. Hoogeveen. 2003. El Niño or El Peso? Crisis, Poverty and Income Distribution in the Philippines. World Development Vol. 31 No. 7, pp. 1103-1124. David, W. P., M. L. F. de los Reyes, K. L. L. Millare, and A. L. Fajardo. 2007. Relative Vulnerability of Different Provinces of the Philippines to El NiñoInduced Drought of Various Magnitudes. The Philippine Agricultural Scientist 90 (4): 315-330. Department of Energy. 2006. Power Statistics, Electric Power. 2006 Gross Power Generation in MWh. http://www.doe.gov.ph/EP/ DOE Portal. Powerstat.htm. Retrieved 30 January 2008.

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