http://wwwaei.org/paper/25396.html. Spring 2010 | 187 ..... loyalty complicate the ability of coalitional forces to convert insurgent forces in. Afghanistan. Pashtun ...
‘Phase IV’ Operations in the War on Terror: Comparing Iraq and Afghanistan by Anthony N. Celso Anthony N. Celso is an Associate Professor at Valley Forge Military Academy & College in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.
Abstract: This article identifies the obstacles and prospects of implementing President Obama’s surge strategy in Afghanistan by examining four issues: (1) the origins and implementation of the Iraq surge policy; (2) U.S. counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan; (3) a comparative examination of Afghan and Iraqi tribal insurgent structures; and (4) suggestions for a counter insurgency policy more in sync with regional social and tribal structures.
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he Obama Administration’s December 2009 plan to send thirty thousand additional troops to Afghanistan has raised conflicting expectations and doubts that security in the country can improve. Regional in scope, Obama’s so called Af-Pak policy envisions stronger Pakistani efforts to fight the Taliban along the Northwest Frontier, a territory that is a support base for the Afghan guerillas. Defeating a resurgent Taliban is critical given that Islamic fundamentalism threatens to destabilize the region. Based on the Iraq ‘‘surge,’’ Obama’s Af-Pak counterinsurgency policy emphasizes protecting civilian populations. Clearing, holding and building areas that had been under insurgent control defines much of the policy. Enhanced force projection in Taliban strongholds of Kandahar and Helmond Provinces aims at severing civilians from the insurgents; facilitating both economic development and national reconciliation. The Administration hopes that four more brigades fully deployed by summer 2010 will turn the tide against a raging Taliban insurgency, forcing ‘‘moderate’’ and ‘‘reconcilable’’ elements among the Islamists to join the peace process and integrate into the Afghan political process. Optimistic in scope, the Administration expects that the security gains created by the Afghan ‘‘surge’’ can be the basis of a ‘‘conditions based’’ withdrawal that is planned to commence in two years. Borrowing from the Iraq Anbar Awakening Movement where Sunni insurgents joined with American troops, the cooption of former insurgents and their reintegration into Afghan security forces is one of the strategy’s priorities. # 2010 Published by Elsevier Limited on behalf of Foreign Policy Research Institute.
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CELSO Despite such hopes, successful implementation of an Afghan surge policy and negotiated deals with combatants is unlikely. President Obama’s convoluted December West Point speech announced both a surge of forces and a projected timeline for phased withdrawal contrasts strikingly with the Bush Administrations 2007 emphasis on victory in Iraq and a steadfast refusal to announce future troop withdrawals. Afghanistan’s tribal, economic and religious context has little in common with Iraqi society. Iraq may not be a good test case for crafting a Central Asian counterinsurgency policy. Obama’s policy, therefore, should be more tuned to regional tribal configurations. This essay now addresses the obstacles and implementation prospects of Obama’s surge strategy by examining four issues: (1) the origins and implementation of the Iraq surge policy; (2) U.S. counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan; (3) a comparative examination of Afghan and Iraqi tribal insurgent structures; and (4) suggestions for a counter insurgency policy more in sync with regional social and tribal structures. Iraq, The Surge and ‘Tactical-Military Success’ In 2006, Iraq was on the verge of civil war and some analysts considered it a lost cause. Predicting sectarian regional wars, state collapse, and terrorist sanctuaries, some called for U.S. disengagement and withdrawal.1 Repeated comparisons were made with Vietnam. Politically, all but the most conservative and loyalist Bush Administration partisans believed the war was ‘‘lost.’’ Many Republicans had become openly critical of the war and what they claimed to be mismanagement of the conflict. In short, the war had become toxic. The lack of security within Iraq was exacerbated by the Bush Administration’s disastrous postwar occupation policies. Insufficient troops and a misguided dissolution of the Iraqi Army and state conjoined to fuel a Sunni insurgency that morphed into a nihilistic al Qaeda suicidal bombing campaign aimed at Shia civilians and religious centers. By late 2006, Iraq was on the precipice of a sectarian civil war and state collapse. Army and Marine counterinsurgency policy with its hunt and kill operations, remote forward operating bases (FOBS), and poorly trained Iraqi security forces aggravated the problem. By 2006, U.S. Marine intelligence officials believed that the Sunni Triangle could not be pacified and was lost to insurgent forces. The 2006 Baker-Hamilton Iraq study group called for removing U.S. combat forces by 2009 and expressed the conventional wisdom that the Iraq 1
James Dobsin, ‘‘Who lost Iraq’’ in Foreign Affairs, September/October 2007, pp. 61-75. James Fearon; ‘‘Iraq’s Civil War’’ in Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007, pp. 2-15; Stephen Biddle, ‘‘Seeing Baghdad: Thinking Saigon’’ in Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006, pp. 2-14.
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Afghanistan/Pakistan war was a costly failure. Rejecting disengagement, the Bush Administration constructed a policy of strengthened American military commitment in Iraq. Thomas Ricks argues the surge was crafted by critics within the U.S. military who had reservations about the conduct of the war.2 Written by generals David Petraeus and James Mattis, the Army-Marine field manual on counterinsurgency is a tacit repudiation of the 2003-2006 post war Iraq occupation strategy.3 The document endorses clearing, holding and building areas formerly bastions of the insurgency. Placing emphasis on protecting the civilian population allows occupation forces better capabilities to isolate and neutralize insurgents. Greater security in towns and villages create the basis for enhanced economic development, better governance, training of local security forces and national reconciliation. The manual was shaped by successful counterinsurgency cases, including the U.S. military’s success in Iraqi towns like Tal Afar and Ramadi; areas where increased troop strength, outreach to former insurgents, greater respect for cultural norms and protection of civilian population had produced greater stability. These towns would serve as the precedent for the larger force projection of 30,000 troops contemplated by the Bush Administration in its 2007 surge policy. The surge received an impetus from scholar Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC, who advocated a large force to stabilize Baghdad, eventually spreading security gains to outlying areas.4 Aimed at protecting civilians, the application of a larger force was part of a larger battle to win hearts and minds and was designed to give breathing space to the central governments efforts at national reconciliation. Long a critic of Secretary Rumsfeld’s light military footprint in Iraq and the Administrations’ policy of accelerated transition of security functions to Iraqi forces, John McCain endorsed the Petraeus-Kagan initiative. Support for the surge and its success may well have cost McCain the 2008 presidential election. Implementing the surge strategy within the Beltway fell to NSC advisor Steven Hadley, who pressed for a comprehensive change in the Administration’s Iraq policy. Faced with an al Qaeda-inspired wave of suicide bombings of Shia mosques and the threat of a sectarian civil war, the Bush Administration wanted to save its Iraq legacy. The Administration’s surge policy amounted to a repudiation of its initial approach. The departure of Rumsfeld, the ascension of ‘‘realist’’ Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense and the elevation of General Petraeus as commander of U.S. forces in Iraq put very human faces on the new policy. 2
Thomas Ricks, The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008 (Penguin Press, New York: 2009). 3 David Petraeus and James Mattis, Counter Insurgency: FM3-24/MFM3-24 (Department of the Army and Navy, Washington D.C.: 2006). 4 Federick Kagan, ‘‘Choosing Victory in Iraq: A Plan for Success (Phase I Report)’’ AEI at http://wwwaei.org/paper/25396.html.
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CELSO Despite the grave insecurity that prompted the surge, there were some signs that conditions were improving. The origins of Iraq’s enhanced security predate the surge. By late 2006, the U.S. military alliance with tribal sheiks in Al Anbar Province was beginning to bear fruit in the fight against al Qaeda. John McCary’s study of the al Anbar Son’s of Iraq movement argues that the Sunni insurgency began to weaken as early as late 2006.5 Threatened by al Qaeda’s murderous suicidal bombing campaigns, its indiscriminate killing of civilians and its efforts to destroy traditional lines of tribal authority in al Anbar, the tribal sheiks entered into an alliance with U.S. forces. Arming over a hundred thousand Sunni militia men tied to local sheiks is widely credited with weakening al Qaeda and driving its remnants to Mosul and Kirkuk. With the new strategy of local force projection, security began to improve dramatically. U.S. troops and Iraq civilians killed by insurgents (while spiking at the beginning of the surge) began to decline throughout 2007-2008.6 Anbar would move from the most dangerous Iraqi province to one of the safest by early 2009. Vivid testimony to the success of the Petraeus mantra of ‘‘clear,’’ ‘‘hold’’ and ‘‘build’’ was the stabilization of Iraq’s central government and the emergence of Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki as a respected and popular leader. His status was underscored by the successful military campaign against radical al Badar Shi’ite militias in Basra in 2008, the weakening of anti U.S. Shia forces tied to Iran, and 2009 local elections that strengthened Malaki’s pro U.S. political bloc.7 The growth of Iraqi security forces, the purging of sectarian elements from the police and the transfer of provincial authority throughout Iraq provides a comprehensive picture of relative success. Critics of the Iraq war are increasingly united in at least granting that the surge has, at a minimum, been a tactical military success.8 While tenuous and reversible, the surge has taken hold and has given the Iraqi government the ability to resolve contentious issues like provincial distribution of oil wealth, the incorporation of Sunni militias into security forces, and easing Kurdish and Sunni tensions over Kirkuk. Failure to resolve these problems could unleash a new spiral of violence that could break the country apart. The withdrawal of U.S. forces from major towns and cities in June of 2009 is testing the mettle of Iraqi security forces that face multiple threats from al Qaeda, and recalcitrant Sunni and Shi’ite insurgents. The Obama Administrations policy of removing U.S. combat forces at the end of 2010 from Iraq 5
John McCary, ‘‘The Anbar Awakening Movement: An Alliance for Incentives’’ in Washington Quarterly, January 2009, pp. 43-59. 6 Bing West, The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics and End Game in Iraq (New York: Penguin Press, 2009). 7 Reid Smith, ‘‘Iraq: Provincial Election Report’’ in FPRI (Feb 2009) at http://wwwfpri.org/ 200902smith.iraqprovelecthtml. 8 Ricks, The Gamble.
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Afghanistan/Pakistan and its commitment to ramp up its force projection in Afghanistan ends one era and begins a new test case for U.S. counterinsurgency policy. The decision to increase U.S. combat forces in Afghanistan and the emphasis on a dialogue with Taliban ‘‘moderates’’ is explicitly modeled after Iraq’s successful 2007 policy.9 Today’s Afghanistan has some ominous parallels with 2006 Iraq. It is to the origins of post 2001 Afghan instability and the failure of U.S. counter insurgency efforts that we now turn. Obama and ‘Real’ Terror War in Afghanistan The Obama Administration’s surge policy is fraught with irony. As a prominent Iraq war critic, Obama opposed the war and most particularly the surge in Iraq. His criticism of General Petraeus’ testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was quite hostile. Obama would go on to make opposition to the Iraq war a central pillar of his successful 2008 presidential bid. Once in power, Obama relaxed his timetable for Iraqi disengagement and made Afghanistan his central foreign policy priority. The surge’s success in Iraq seems to suggest that an Afghan version can be successful. Obama’s policy speaks volumes about the failure of counterinsurgency policy since the Taliban’s 2001 fall. After an innovative military campaign marked by special force operations, local proxy militias and targeted air strikes, the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies were defeated and would not recover until years later. By early 2002 a national reconciliation government stretching across tribal lines, led by anti-Taliban Pashtun Hamid Karzai, had been established by international coalition forces. The promise of Afghan reconstruction and defeat of the Taliban subsequently gave way to despair and chronic instability. The light American military presence and the over reliance on proxy forces tied to tribal war lords came at a heavy price.10 Critics argued that General Tommy Frank’s unwillingness to deploy substantial forces at the outset of the campaign allowed key al Qaeda and Taliban leaders to escape. Precious military and intelligence assets were diverted to Iraq in 2002 and Afghan reconstruction floundered as international aid donors failed to meet their obligations.11 The effect of too few troops, lagging economic 9 Barnet Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, ‘‘From Great Game to Grand Compromise’’ in Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008, pp. 30-44; Barnett Rubin, ‘‘Saving Afghanistan’’ in Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007), pp. 57-78. 10 Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos: U.S. and the Failure of Nation Building in Afghanistan and Central Asia (Viking Press, New York: 2008). 11 Ashaf Ghani and Claire Lockheart, Fixing Failed States: Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World (Oxford University Press: New York, 2008); Gretchen Peters, Seeds of Terror: How Heroin is Bankrolling the Taliban and Al Qaeda (St. Martin’s Press, New York, 2009).
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CELSO development, rampant corruption and poorly trained security forces led to a resurgence of the Taliban. Equally damaging for Afghan stability was Bush’s support for the Pakistani government.12 Having financed and provided military support for the Taliban, Pakistani strategic interest is in a weak Afghanistan. Pakistan’s powerful Inter Services Intelligence agency (ISI) has substantial links with Taliban and Kashmiri Islamists. Faced with American military retaliation, Pakistani President Musharraf changed course and joined coalition efforts to destroy the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda. Musharraf’s agreement with the Bush Administration came with some severe caveats. With Bush’s assent, Pakistan would only target al Qaeda and not its Pakistani Taliban and Kashmiri allies. The subordination of U.S. interests to those of Pakistan reached an absurd point during the Afghan war when U.S. forces ceased attacks on the Taliban in Kunduz to permit the withdrawal of thousands of Pakistani ISI and military personnel who had been assisting the Islamists. This Pakistani retreat, moreover, was not well supervised by U.S. forces and may have permitted the escape of key Taliban commanders. While the Bush-Musharraf alliance paid initial dividends with the capture of al Qaeda leaders—such as 9/11 masterminds Kalid Sheik Mohammad and Ramzi Binalshibh—by 2006, the utility of Pakistani cooperation in the war on terror began to decline. After some military campaigns against Taliban forces in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the Afghan border, repeated peace deals with the Taliban led to the resurgence of radical Islamists. The emergence of Islamist war lords like the late Baitullah Meshud in Waziristan created an ample supply network and fighters for the Afghan Taliban. Meshud’s movement, moreover, has gone international and has been linked to failed 2008 terror plots to attack Spain and Holland. ISI support for the Taliban and Islamist loyalties in the Pakistani army have hampered U.S. efforts to capture and kill key al Qaeda leaders. It is quite telling that, despite tens of billions of dollars in U.S. aid since 9/11, Pakistan still deploys 80 percent of its military assets along the Kashmir border to counter India.13 Pakistan’s fight against the Taliban has been characterized by sporadic military campaigns followed by truces and amnesty. Increasing Taliban power in Pakistan and the positioning of its forces in areas only a hundred miles from Islamabad raises concerns of an Islamist seizure of power and control over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The Government’s military campaign to root out insurgent elements in the Swat Valley has raised hope that Pakistan is finally getting serious about its fight with the Islamists. However, such hopes do not necessarily reflect the real strategic interests of the army and the ISI, which remain fearful of Indian influence in Afghanistan and Kashmir. 12
Vinni Capelli, ‘‘Containing Pakistan: Raja Mandala in South Central Asia’’ in Orbis, Winter 2007, 1, pp. 55-70. 13 Rashid, Descent Into Chaos.
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Afghanistan/Pakistan While the Pakistani military may act against the Islamists like Baitullah Meshud who threaten the central government, it is unlikely to move against the Pakistani Taliban and their Pashtun Afghan proxies. Similarly, Pakistani intelligence information assisting U.S. Predator drone air strikes have targeted only al Qaeda or Taliban warlords who challenge Islamabad’s authority. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban North West Frontier sanctuary has been critical in the renaissance of the Afghan Taliban insurgency. Coalition forces have not been permitted to operate in Pakistani territory and have been repeatedly stymied in their attempts to stem the flow of Pakistani weapons, money and support for the Taliban. U.S. and coalitional counterinsurgency efforts have floundered in Afghanistan. Relying principally on hunt and kill operations and indiscriminate airpower, large numbers of Afghan civilians have died in coalition operations. Chronic under-funding of Afghan reconstruction and unwillingness of European allies to commit to combat operations against the Taliban have worsened security.14 The training of the Afghan national army and police has been slow and often ineffective.15 Afghans are increasingly resentful of the coalition and the Taliban now reportedly constitutes a presence in 50 percent of the country, mounting intimidation campaigns against the civilian population.16 Meager international commitment, weak Pakistani military operations, and a resurgent Afghan and Pakistan Taliban have created a depressing security situation in Afghanistan. Insurgent attacks employing suicide bombings, improvised explosive devices and ambushes have increased coalition forces and Afghan civilian fatalities. Since 2002, the drug trade has skyrocketed, enriching the financial coffers of the Taliban. In Helmand Province, long a Pashtun Taliban stronghold, opium production has reached record levels. Past opium crop eradication efforts have alienated key segments of the populace, thereby threatening to increase support for the Taliban. A coalition defeat in Afghanistan would threaten to turn the country into a terror sanctuary that could be a launching pad for the next 9/ 11. Given the similarities between Iraq in 2006 and Afghanistan in 2010, the Obama Administration has hedged its bet on the Petraeus doctrine of protecting the civilian population through a policy of clearing insurgents, holding villages, and rebuilding the social-economic and political foundations. The Administration, moreover, wants to negotiate and re-integrate insurgent forces (e.g., ‘‘moderate’’ Taliban) in an Afghan version of the Anbar Awakening movement. Successful negotiation with insurgents may turn on the tribal peculiarities and religious orientations of Afghan Pashtuns, who differ 14
Gregg Mills, ‘‘Ten Counterinsurgency Commandments for Afghanistan’’ FPRI (June 2007) at http://fpri.org/events2007ul/.millsafghanistancounterinsurgency.html. 15 Andrew Legion, ‘‘Ineffective, Unprofessional and Corrupt: Afghan National Police Challenge’’ in FPRI (June 2009) http://wwwfpri.org/events/2007ul/.millsagfghannationalpolice.html. 16 Peters, Seeds of Terror.
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CELSO dramatically from the relatively homogeneous and secular Sunni Anbar tribes. The Pakistani experience with amnesty and truces with the Pashtun Taliban cast doubt on the efficacy of this approach. The Vexing Issue of Afghan Tribalism: A Comparative Analysis with Iraq’s Anbar Experience Counterinsurgency success in Iraq has been most dramatic in the Anbar region, which only a few years ago was the most violent province in the country. Ambassador Paul Bremer’s decision to disband the Sunni-dominated army and state structure, sparked an insurgency that soon morphed into al Qaeda suicide bombing campaign aimed at the Shia population. Iraqi Sunni insurgents constituted a coalition of Baathist supporters, tribal sheiks and international jihadists. Tribal sheiks in Anbar had joined with al Qaeda to defeat U.S. occupation forces, because coalitional authorities had tried to usurp their power base.17 As the insurgency evolved, power struggles between the insurgents intensified. The conflict between al Qaeda and Sunni sheiks to control Anbar reached a tipping point in 2006. Horrified by the terror organization’s undermining of tribal authority, sheiks began to mull the possibility of an alliance with U.S. forces. The Islamists’ seizure of towns, their killing of tribal sheiks, their attempts to impose Islamic law, and their nihilistic violence soon became too much for the Anbar Sunni sheiks to bear, and by late 2006 they were ready to reach out to the U.S. military to reverse al Qaeda’s grip over the region. America’s ability to consolidate tribal authority was facilitated by Anbar’s sectarian homogeneity, secular attitudes and intra-tribal loyalty. U.S. military’s financing of Sunni paramilitary forces (the Sons of Iraq Movement) employed over a hundred thousand tribal fighters anxious to preserve traditional lines of authority. These fighters become the eyes and ears of U.S. forces allowing for more targeted raids against al Qaeda insurgents and affiliates. Al Qaeda became a victim of its own extremism. Faced with a hostile population and effective attacks against their operations, the terror organization fled to the sectarian mixed northern cities like Mosul and Kirkuk.18 The threat to Iraq posed by al Qaeda has now been greatly diminished, but the terror organization still remains a danger to Iraq stability, especially in the North where ethnic passions create a breeding ground for terrorist violence. Given the effectiveness of the U.S. military in aligning Iraqi insurgents against extremists, what are the implications for the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan? One way to envision the obstacles confronting U.S. forces in 17 18
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McCary, ‘‘The Anbar Awakening Movement.’’ West, The Strongest Tribe.
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Afghanistan/Pakistan Figure 1. Tribal Diversity and Loyalty Patterns Intra Tribal Homogeneity/Heterogeneity
Afghanistan is to compare the intensity of tribal loyalty with the degree of intra group homogeneity and what these links imply for successful negotiation with insurgents. Figure 1 (illustrated above) identifies these intersections. As the matrix indicates Cell A (Sunni Anbar Tribes) and Cell D (Afghan and Pakistani Pashtuns) are diametric opposites. Pashtun tribal structures are diverse, fractured and characterized by low levels of leadership fidelity, where Sunni Sheikdoms are unitary and loyal to sheiks.19 The Pashtuns, moreover, lack the secular, pragmatic orientation of the Anbar sheiks that had facilitated its alienation with al Qaeda. The lack of homogeneity among Pashtuns and the paucity of tribal loyalty complicate the ability of coalitional forces to convert insurgent forces in Afghanistan. Pashtun tribes are split into five different confederations, some of whom are hostile to each other. The Durrani confederation has frequently fought over territory and trade issues with the fundamentalist Ghilizai. The segmented nature of the Pahstuns with their rampant localism is likely to confound even the most sophisticated effort to lure them from the battlefield. Fidelity to leaders, moreover, is at best transitory and highly volatile. Power struggles within clans are highly bloody, with little stable leadership emerging. Pashtun infidelity contrasts strikingly with the Anbar militiamen’s commitment to their sheiks. In addition, the Pashtuns lack the cosmopolitan secular pragmatism of the Iraqi Sunnis. The religious fundamentalism of Pashtun Taliban supporters suggests that it would be difficult for the Afghan insurgents to reconcile themselves to a central government. Taliban religious identity was defined by its training in 19
Thomas Johnson and Chris Mason, ‘‘Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan’’ in Orbis, Winter 2007, pp. 71-99; John McCary, ibid.
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CELSO Pakistani madrassas. Often dominated by radical Saudi trained and financed clerics, these religious schools indoctrinated millions of Afghan refugees during the Soviet occupation. Ahmed Rashid argues that fundamentalist Afghan Deobandism and radical Saudi Wahhabism mix quite well, forming the basis of the Taliban’s ideology.20 Emerging from Pakistani refugee camps as committed fundamentalists, their seizure of power in 1996 resulted in the most xenophobic and ideological regime since the Khmer Rouge. Breaking the grip of an ideology combining nationalist xenophobia and religious fanaticism is likely to be difficult, if not impossible. Pakistani experience in negotiating with the Taliban is far from encouraging. The Taliban has repeatedly violated its deals with Islamabad in the North West Frontier Territories. Such agreements have been linked with the growth of a terror structure that has aligned with and provided sanctuary to al Qaeda and its affiliates. The conflict in Swat Valley—where Pakistan conceded to Taliban demands for the imposition of Shariah law—was used by militants to expand their power base to adjacent areas. Faced with a growing Islamist threat only 100 miles from the capital, Pakistan was forced to move against the Taliban. The military offensive against the Taliban in the Swat Valley (more comprehensive than past efforts) speaks volumes about the futility of negotiating with the Taliban. Afghan Pashtuns can also not be lured into an alliance by a common external enemy. The Sons of Iraq Movement, ironically, was forged by a fear of the Shia dominated central government, and by U.S. efforts, to create a Sunni military force as a counter weight to Iranian influence in Baghdad. This unity of interests is currently lacking in Afghanistan. Today U.S. forces confront numerous obstacles and are constrained by limited strategic options. For instance, although the coalition could forge a patchwork of anti-Pashtun tribes similar to the anti-Syrian Sunni and Christian militias in Lebanon, who find themselves opposing Pro Syrian Christian and Shi’ite groups (Cell B), such an anti-Pashtun alliance would complicate Washington’s relationship with Islamabad, and threaten to intensify the Taliban insurgency on both sides of the border. Similarly, it is not a viable option to allow for economic development to take hold to weaken tribal loyalty and increase secular attitudes (Cell C). The lack of security in Afghanistan undercuts the modernizing effect of prosperity, which has weakened tribal loyalties in South Africa. Unless the insurgency is defeated, insecurity will militate against economic development as the basis for national reconciliation. Faced with a diverse and recalcitrant Taliban, coalition negotiation efforts are likely to have limited success. One possible fruitful option would be to pursue a divide and conquer strategy among the Pashtuns. The sheer 20
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Rashid, Descent Into Chaos.
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Afghanistan/Pakistan diversity of Pashtun tribal confederations (some of whom are opposed to the Taliban) may give the coalition an opening. The Pakistani experience, oddly enough, provides evidence of some Pashtun hostility toward the Taliban. Various tribes have risen against the Taliban in the North West Frontier. Some Pakistani tribal warlords are chafing at the Islamic militancy of the Taliban and their attacks against tribal hierarchies and commercial activities. The evolving civil war in the Pashtun community could allow for coalition inroads among anti-Taliban Pashtun. This is especially important in areas like Waziristan, where al Qaeda’s logistical and military structure took root after the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Military support to friendly local forces would facilitate the hunt for al Qaeda leaders such as Bin Laden and Zawahiri who so far have evaded U.S. forces. Such a development, moreover, would reduce Washington’s dependence on Islamabad whose fight against extremist forces has been half hearted. The Pakistani military and intelligence apparatus has never cut its ties to the Taliban and its strategic interest in countering Indian influence in Afghanistan and Kashmir make such a severing unlikely. The Taliban-al Qaeda network in Northwest Waziristan continues unabated by Pakistani efforts. Given both the intractability of the Taliban and the weak Pakistani efforts to counter extremism, what then should be our Af-Pak policy? Conclusion: Designing a Realist Counterinsurgency Policy in Afghanistan President Obama’s Af-Pak strategy is unlikely to reverse the region’s deteriorating security. The success of the policy in Iraq depended on a homogeneous tribal system characterized by loyalty to sheiks and chiefdoms, which has no counterpart in Afghanistan where the Pashtun are split into five different confederations. The Pashtun confederations, moreover, are characterized by intense infighting, leadership volatility and historic rivalries. The dominance of fundamentalists groups within the Taliban (especially Mullah Omar’s faction based in Quetta and the Haqqani Host network operating along the border) militates against insurgent cooption. Much of the current fascination with flipping the insurgency to our side is based on an illusive quest for ‘‘moderate’’ Taliban and criminal elements amenable to negotiation.21 This quest for moderate Taliban has proven illusive, as illustrated by the Pakistani experience in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas, where truces have been repeatedly violated. The Obama Administration’s projected ‘‘conditions based’’ withdrawal starting in 2011 similarly demonstrates a lack of 21
Fotini Christia and Michael Semple, ‘‘Flipping the Taliban: How to Win in Afghanistan’’ in Foreign Affairs, July/August 2009, pp. 34-45.
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CELSO resolve that is likely to embolden the Taliban’s efforts to resist national reconciliation talks. Flipping much of the insurgency to our side is not a realistic option. The Administration’s dependence on Pakistani cooperation in the fight against Islamic militants is equally problematic. Pakistan’s fight against the Taliban has been marred by pro-Islamist forces in the army and the ISI, and the religious militancy of Pakistan’s pro Taliban Pashtun allies. Obama’s strategy of continued support for Pakistan (albeit with more stringent conditions) compounds past mistakes. The plan’s focus on counter narcotics is also counterproductive. Since the 2001 invasion, opium production has skyrocketed and poppy cultivation in Helmand province has enriched the financial coffers of the Taliban. The criminal smuggling network along the border has been a key component in the Taliban resurgence. Past efforts to break the nexus between drugs and terrorist finance has led to crop eradication programs that alienated rural farmers leading them to support the Taliban. The recent decision to abandon this strategy is an improvement, but the alternative offered is potentially dangerous. Obama’s current strategy plans to use military force to destroy laboratories, drug convoys and distribution networks. Some 50 major drug traffickers are to be targeted by U.S. and Afghan security forces to be either captured or killed. Given the role of prominent warlords in poppy cultivation and heroin production, such a strategy threatens to enlarge the insurgency. Such an antidrug strategy risks even alienating anti-Pashtun war lords with substantial ties to the central government. Expanding crop substitution programs is also unlikely to reverse the vast expansion in opium. There are no crops capable of luring Afghan farmers away from poppy cultivation. The financial remuneration associated with wheat, vegetables and fruits are insufficient to compensate farmers for lost income. Washington needs to rethink its strategy on drug cultivation in Afghanistan. Commercializing opium production into medicines has viable antecedents. In the 1970s, Turkey and the United States converted poppy cultivation into codeine.22 The surplus crop not used for medical purposes was purchased by the Turkish government, underwritten by Washington, and subsequently destroyed. This arrangement has endured for over thirty years with the U.S. foreign aid assisting Turkish conversion of opium into medicines. Turkey’s poppy licensing system has reduced the power of criminal gangs and helped 22 Jerrit Kamminga, ‘‘The Political History of Turkey’s Opium Licensing System for the Production of Medicines’’ Sencis Council: Development and Security Group (May 2006) at http://wwwpoppyformedicine.net/doc/Political_History_Poppy_Licensing_Turkey_May-2006. html.
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Afghanistan/Pakistan farmers preserve income. Commercializing the opium market in Afghanistan could make a substantial contribution to abating the insurgency and assisting Anti-Taliban forces, while denying the Islamists a valuable source of income. Licenses to cultivate poppies would create a coalition of farmers, merchants and warlords tied to Kabul and potentially wean farmers away from the Taliban. Such a policy mimics America’s utilization of government patronage in Anbar where loyal tribal sheiks were granted government contracts, preserving traditional lines of authority and patronage. This is especially critical in Helmand Province, a Taliban stronghold that accounts for most of Afghanistan’s poppy crop. The predominance of the Taliban among Ghilizi Pashtuns means that other Pashtun federations could be targeted for economic assistance. Commercializing the poppy trade, distributing commercial licenses and funneling government contracts through antiTaliban tribal leaders combined with enhanced force projection could facilitate security and economic development. The expansion of U.S. and British forces in Helmand and Kandahar Provinces in order to clear this area of insurgent activity is necessary to prevent Taliban intimidation of the civilian population. Increased force projection and sustained local economic development based on poppy trade have some potential to reverse the recent gains of the Taliban. Without a sustained commercial economy, the Administration’s military strategy of securing road and trade networks linking Kandahar with key towns in Helmand and eventually to the Pakistani border is likely to fail. By dividing the Pashtun and isolating the fundamentalist Ghilizi confederation, coalition forces could mount more targeted raids to capture and kill extremists. Such measures, however, will flounder unless Washington begins to rethink its strategic relationship with Islamabad. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban along the border is consistent with its strategic aim of weakening Indian influence in Afghanistan. FATA provides a critical support network for the Taliban insurgency. No amount of money or coaxing from Washington is likely to change this situation. The continued fixation with altering Pakistani behavior is as fanciful as luring ‘‘moderate’’ Taliban into national reconciliation talks. Greater cooperation with India, Russia, Central Asian Republics, and Iran is critical. Sunni Islamic militants threaten security in these countries, the strategic interests of which lie in cooperating with United States. Alliances with these countries give us greater access to alternative supply routes, bases, valuable intelligence and less dependence on Islamabad. U.S. forces should support anti-Taliban groups operating in Pakistan. Taliban attacks against tribal hierarchies are encountering resistance across Pakistan. Military and financial support for these groups offers us the best hope of killing or capturing Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and Zawahiri and effectively diminishes our reliance on an untrustworthy ISI and Pakistani military. Spring 2010
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CELSO Friendly forces along the frontier will allow for better coordination of air strikes from unmanned Predator drones that have exacted a substantial toll on al Qaeda and Taliban militants in the last two years. This is especially critical given the current strategy’s redeployment of U.S. and international forces away from frontier outposts and toward major population centers. Unless Washington changes its Pakistan alliance and drug cultivation stance and begins arming anti-Taliban Pashtuns, and other local militias, it is unlikely to achieve its strategic objectives of destroying the Taliban insurgency and promoting national reconciliation.
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