Conference 2015 - DeHavilland

The fourth in DeHavilland's UK/EU referendum series, this briefing focuses on the recent party conference season, taking the EU-related highlights from our coverage of the events Following the recent launch of major campaign groups on both sides of the debate, it then looks at the state of play ahead of an announcement on which groups will be given official status. Finally it present the results of a survey of MPs carried out by DeHavilland, which suggests that there is considerable doubt over David Cameron's chances of achieving his renegotiation.

Conference 2015

During his speech to the Conservative Party Conference, Mr Cameron sought to address the vexed question of Britain’s EU membership, declaring: “I’m only interested in two things: Britain’s prosperity and Britain’s influence. That’s why I’m going to fight hard in this renegotiation – so we can get a better deal and the best of both worlds.” Mr Cameron’s words were noticeably vague. Of course, Mr Cameron has an interest in being deliberately ambiguous. His verbal posturing reinforced the official party position of remaining in a reformed European Union, and did little to agitate the Eurosceptics. It was a theme that carried on through the conference despite the best efforts of some fringe panellists.

under pressure to clarify his position. At the end of July he formally announced that he would campaign to stay in. Despite this declaration, the subject did not receive much attention during his speech to the Labour Party Conference and he framed his words on the subject in the context of failed Conservative leadership. He explained that there was “Nothing good about a Prime Minister wandering around Europe trying to bargain away the rights that protect our workers.” He declared that the Labour Party would “stand up for the vision of a social Europe, a Europe of unity and solidarity, to defend those rights.”

Nevertheless, Mr Cameron has now agreed to lay out detailed proposals on the renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the EU within a month, backtracking on his previous rejection of “artificial deadlines” for such a document, the Times reports.

Arguably, the Liberal Democrats have been the party most cohesive and consistent when it has come to a message on Europe. At the Liberal Democrat Party conference, Mr Farron explained that a united Europe made the UK stronger in fighting problems that transcended its borders, and British “prosperity”, “security”, “stability” and “relevance” would all suffer should the nation leave. He also expressed anxiety about the beliefs of new Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in this regard.

Mr Corbyn’s stance on Britain’s continued membership of the European Union has been questioned, and on becoming leader he came

Some anticipated that London Mayor Boris Johnson could align himself with the out campaign, however he did not use his speech

© DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2015

at the Conservative Party Conference to do so; the EU made only a fleeting appearance.

swing the EU referendum?, on opposite sides of the debate.

There was no obvious dissent when it came to the European question, nor evidence of MPs breaking ranks and protesting Mr Cameron’s renegotiation. The Cabinet remained well behaved, with Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and Chancellor George Osborne both stressing the importance of the renegotiation strategy.

Being an EU member made the UK better-off, gave it a stronger voice in the world and provided security, Mr Green told the meeting.

The most revealing speech came from Mr Hammond, who laid out the fundamentals of the renegotiation: “We say YES to……. A Europe that champions and extends the single market….. A multi-currency Europe of pounds, krone, forints as well as Euros…..An outward looking Europe, relentless in its pursuit of trade with the wider world…..A Europe focussed on growth, and jobs and wealth creation…..A Europe where powers flow back from Brussels, rather than to it.

The UK had access to the Single Market of 500m people and it took nearly half of UK trade, Mr Green said, adding that every British household benefited by £3,000 a year from EU membership. Mr Hannan explained that there was a positive economic argument for leaving the EU. He claimed tax, food and fuel bills would all be lower if the UK was outside of Europe. The broader economic case rested on the fact that businesses were not all behind the EU, Mr Hannon said, insisting that the experiences of British manufacturers like Dyson and JCB showed that the interests of UK commerce did not line up with Brussels.

…And an emphatic NO to businessdestroying over-regulation… NO to ever closer union applying to Britain…. NO to abuse of our welfare system….. definitely not to Britain in the Euro and never, ever to a European Army.”

In a fringe event hosted by the London School of Economics, Europe Minister David Lidington was pressed on the details of Mr Cameron’s renegotiation. In response, he said that the Government’s position would not be publicised while talks were on-going, and urged the audience to return to the PM’s 2013 Bloomberg speech for clues. Conservative MP Damian Green and Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan were panellists in the fringe In or Out: What will


David Lidington at Conservative Conference

At a fringe event entitled In or Out: What does Britain want from the EU Shadow Europe Minister Pat McFadden and Labour MP Chuka Umunna both agreed that the referendum amounted to "the most important decision being taken by people in the UK" over the next few years, and they both claimed that through its membership, Britain gained economically.

Mr Umunna was particularly keen to speak on the Europe issue at the Labour conference, also joining Lord Mandelson at a fringe entitled Securing Britain and Europe’s Economic Future. During the fringe, Lord Mandelson explained that if the UK voted to leave, it would spark a fresh referendum in Scotland that would in turn almost certainly be lost, leaving Little England in place of Great Britain. In the context of the recent “economic gloom” in Europe he underlined the importance of reminding ourselves of Europe’s considerable strengths, such as strong institutions, clear laws and skilled workers. He also highlighted investment in science and research, adding that Europe ranked high on technical readiness and innovation.

In a Q&A session, former Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said that it was correct that the Government sought to secure political and legal guarantees for the UK in light of moves toward greater fiscal union between Eurozone countries. He called on the Prime Minister to shift his focus away from convincing rightwing backbenchers of the case for continued membership and to place greater emphasis on convincing the electorate. “The Tory party has always mistaken its own obsession with Europe with everyone's obsession with Europe”, he said. He added that “most people don't care about the EU on a day to day basis, so the EU referendum result is volatile and unpredictable”. In another fringe event to promote his recent book, former Business Secretary Vince Cable recalled that foreign investors would ask him about the risk of the UK leaving the EU, which he had then seen as very small. He conceded that this risk had now grown however, with a Conservative majority government and a Labour Party whose position was unclear under its new leadership.


Predicting that the campaign for a ‘Brexit’ would grow in support as the referendum approached, Sir Vince called for the Liberal Democrats to campaign robustly for continued membership and to work closely with likeminded individuals in other parties.

Campaigns The rules say that there can only be one official campaign on each side of the debate – receiving this status entitles the groups to extra funding and spending opportunities. And while the decision is yet to be made by the Electoral Commission, it is beginning to become clear how the two sides will line up.

Apparently more unified than their Eurosceptic counterparts, the 'Britain Stronger in Europe' group was launched on the 12th of October, and appears to face little opposition in representing the case for the UK to remain in the EU. Opting for a figure from the business rather than the political world as leader, the campaign is chaired by Lord Rose, best known as the former boss of retailer Marks & Spencer. "To claim that the patriotic course for Britain is to retreat, withdraw and become inwardlooking is to misunderstand who we are as a nation" Lord Rose, Chair, Britain Stronger in Europe Stuart Rose has an illustrious history in the retail industry, and was made a Conservative Peer in 2014. He is notably critical of the EU on some issues, his support for reform aligning him with David Cameron's renegotiation strategy. In the past he has courted controversy with his views on immigration, arguing that it was beneficial for immigrants to take low-paying jobs that British workers did not want. The last three Prime Ministers in Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, and John Major all back the

campaign, while Lord Rose is joined on the board by such figures as former military chief Sir Peter Wall and Brendan Barber, former Trades Union Congress secretary-general.

Formed earlier was the Leave.EU group formed by Arron Banks, the UKIP donor. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has enthusiastically backed the group, but the party's one MP, Douglas Carswell, supports Vote Leave. Reports suggest that the two groups could possibly merge, but if not, then Vote Leave looks set to win the official status.

Things are a little messier, if also rather more energetic, at this stage on the other side, with two significant groups forming to campaign for the UK to leave the EU.

DeHavilland survey of MPs David Cameron’s pledge to renegotiate the UK’s membership of the EU and put that result to an In/Out will be defining moment of this Parliament. Despite securing a parliamentary majority, albeit a slim one, in the UK General Election, the issue is reported to have generated divisions across the House of Commons.

Looking the most likely to win official status is 'Vote Leave', which has solid cross-party backing. Major donors from the Conservatives, Labour, and UKIP all support the group, as do Conservatives for Britain, the influential proBrexit club within the governing party. 'Labour Leave', the minority Eurosceptic group in the opposition, is on board, along with business group 'Business for Britain'.

To test the mood of the Prime Minister’s fellow parliamentarians, DeHavilland surveyed 41 MPs from across the House of Commons to provide a taster of the faith for the Government’s renegotiation and how it might affect MPs campaigning in the referendum.

“If we vote to leave the EU we will be able to trade freely with the EU and have friendly cooperation. The UK will regain legal control of things like trade, tax, economic regulation and energy. We will be able to vote for people who will be able to make our own trade deals and control our own public services." John Mills, Co-Treasurer, Vote Leave

Our sample consisted of 11 Conservative MPs, 16 Labour, 11 SNP and three from other smaller parties.

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

No Yes

Con

Lab


SNP

Other

Total

We first asked MPs if they believed the UK Government would be successful in its renegotiation strategy. The overall results indicate only about one in three MPs surveyed believed they would be.

the views of a small section of MPs, this figure could be indicative of the strong opposition David Cameron might face from within his own party, if he should campaign for the UK to remain in.

Whilst faith in his success was strongest among Conservatives, at around 45 per cent, over half (55 per cent) still believed Mr Cameron would be unsuccessful. If that sample is indicative of the wider parliamentary party, the Prime Minister could have a tough time selling his renegotiation to his own MPs. Europe remains a divisive issue for the Tories.

However, Mr Cameron could be sure of overwhelming support from Labour and SNP MPs. In spite of recently electing a new leader, seen by some as a eurosceptic, in Jeremy Corbyn, 81 per cent of Labour MPs in our survey declared they would campaign to remain in. In addition, all SNP MPs surveyed would do so, reflecting the party’s proEuropean stance. The Prime Minister could be reassured that overall 73 per cent of MPs in our sample would support him in remaining within the EU, compared to just 19 per cent to leave.

Belief in success was lowest among Labour MPs with only a quarter putting their faith in Mr Cameron. Confidence across other parties in the Commons hovered around a third. Following this, we then asked our sample of MPs how they would campaign, if they deemed the UK Government had delivered a successful negotiation. Only 27 per cent of Conservative MPs say they would campaign for the UK to remain in the EU, compared to 64 per cent who would campaign to leave. Whilst only representing

Most strikingly, only seven per cent of MPs said they had yet to make up their mind on how to campaign. So Mr Cameron appears to be faced with a strongly sceptical Parliament, but one that will back him overwhelmingly, if he is successful in their eyes. Only time will tell if the views of British MPs match those of their constituents.

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

I have not yet decided my position For the UK to leave the EU For the UK to remain in the EU

Con

Lab

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Other

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Timeline For details of all key dates in the run-up to the referendum, see DeHavilland's timeline, which will be continuously updated as the situation evolves. Bookmark this link to stay on top of events.

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