Continued softening in regional house price growth - Nationwide

www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi

Q2 2015

Continued softening in regional house price growth   

Annual house price growth slowed in 11 out of 13 regions London annual price growth softens from 12.7% to 7.3% Scotland weakest performing region, with prices down 1% compared with Q2 2014

UK Fact File Average UK House Price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive region Least expensive region Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£194,258 4.1% 1.0% London North N Ireland Scotland

* Seasonally adjusted (Note that quarterly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated) Please note that these figures are for the three months to June, therefore will show a different UK average price and annual percentage change to our monthly house price report.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “Most regions saw a further slowing in annual house price growth in Q2 2015. Across the UK as a whole, prices rose by 1.0% over the quarter, after allowing for seasonal effects. Prices were up 4.1% compared with Q2 2014. “Northern Ireland overtook London to become the strongest performing region, with average prices up 8.0% year-on-year. Prices remain around 45% below their 2007 peak however. “London was the top performing English region, but saw a further softening in annual price growth to 7.3%, compared with 12.7% in Q1. The Outer Metropolitan area followed closely behind, with annual price growth of 6.8%. The North was the weakest performing English region, with prices essentially unchanged compared with the same period a year ago. “Wales saw a 0.8% year-on-year fall in average prices, similar to last quarter. Scotland was weakest performing region with a 1.0% fall in prices.”

Regions over the last 12 months Forthcoming changes to methodology Please note that from next month onwards we will be using a revised methodology to calculate the house price index. Further details on these changes can be found here. We will continue to publish regional house price data each quarter, but some of the sub-indices will no longer be produced. Text in blue indicates hyperlink

Region N Ireland London Outer Met Outer SE East Anglia E Midlands South West W Midlands Yorks & H’side North West North Wales Scotland UK

Average Price (Q2 2015) £126,525 £429,711 £315,620 £244,119 £198,826 £160,482 £215,363 £165,873 £147,387 £146,908 £125,189 £144,701 £140,512 £194,258

Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected] Deborah Isaac-Taylor, 01793 655354, [email protected] 1

Annual % change this quarter 8.0% 7.3% 6.8% 6.0% 5.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 1.4% 0.1% -0.8% -1.0% 4.1%

Annual % change last quarter 5.7% 12.7% 12.0% 8.4% 7.8% 5.9% 5.7% 4.7% 1.3% 2.0% 4.7% -0.5% 1.3% 5.9%

Scotland Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area Least expensive area Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

Wales £140,512 -1.0% -1.4% Aberdeen City Southern Scotland Edinburgh City Renfrewshire & Inverclyde

Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area Least expensive area Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£144,701 -0.8% 1.0% Cardiff Mid & West Wales Cardiff Mid & West Wales

* Seasonally adjusted


Scotland was the weakest performing region in Q2 2015, with prices down 1% compared with Q2 2014.

Average prices in Wales were down 0.8% year-on-year in Q2, despite a 1.0% rise in the quarter.

Edinburgh continued to be the best performing area, with prices up 6% on the previous year. Renfrewshire & Inverclyde saw the weakest growth, with prices down 8%.

Cardiff was the best performing area with prices up 3% year-on-year, and also remains the most expensive area in the principality.

Click here for Scotland’s sub-regional data

Click here for Wales’ sub-regional data


Northern Ireland Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area Least expensive area Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

London £126,525 8.0% 3.0% City of Belfast Northern Ireland (West) Northern Ireland (West) City of Belfast

Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area Least expensive area Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£429,711 7.3% 2.3% Westminster Barking and Dagenham Barking and Dagenham Tower Hamlets



Northern Ireland was the top performing region in the second quarter, in terms of both quarterly and annual house price growth. However, despite an 8% annual rise, prices are still around 45% below their 2007 peak.

Annual house price growth in London slowed from 12.7% to 7.3%, although the capital continued to outperform the rest of England. At £429,711, average prices are now 39% above their 2007 peak.

Northern Ireland (West), which includes Coleraine and Derry/Londonderry, was the strongest performing area with an 11% increase.

Amongst London’s boroughs, Barking and Dagenham saw the strongest growth, with prices up 19% year-onyear, while Tower Hamlets saw the weakest growth with a 3% fall.

Click here for Northern Ireland’s sub region data

Click here for London borough data


England Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive region Least expensive region Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£235,606 5.3% 1.4% London North London North

* Seasonally adjusted Average house prices in England increased by 1.4% in Q2, and were up 5.3% year-on-year. All English regions, except Yorkshire and Humberside, saw a slowing in their annual rate of price growth. London was the top performing region, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase, closely followed by Outer Metropolitan at 6.8%. Price growth in the South exceeded that in the North for the 25th consecutive quarter. Prices in Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) were up 6.3% year-on-year, whilst in Northern England (West Midlands, East Midlands, Yorkshire & Humberside, North West and North) prices rose by 2.7%.

In cash terms, the gap in average prices between the South and the North is at a record high, at nearly £145,000, with average prices in the South nearly twice as high at those in the North.


Major Towns and Cities Best performing regional towns / cities

Worst performing regional towns / cities

Rank Town / City

Rank Town / City

1 2 3 4 5

Reading Oxford Coventry Brighton Bristol

Annual Average % Price change 13% £335,097 12% £414,301 10% £190,253 10% £406,479 10% £289,253

1 2 3 4 5

Annual % change -4% -3% -2% 0% 0%

Sunderland Belfast Nottingham Plymouth Glasgow

Average Price £150,552 £171,847 £160,446 £186,774 £171,658

Sub Regional Analysis Just as the national data disguises differences in house prices throughout the UK, looking at the regions disguises movements in local house prices. To look at these developments more closely the areas can be divided into sub-regions.

Forthcoming changes to methodology Please note that the methodology for the calculation of the figures in this section is currently under review. In light of changes in data availability, it may be necessary to revise or suspend the data we produce at a sub-regional level.

Scotland Nationwide Sub Regions Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire & Moray Dunbartonshire & North Lanarkshire Dundee & Angus Edinburgh City Fife Glasgow City Highlands & Islands Lothian & Falkirk Perthshire & Stirling Renfrewshire & Inverclyde South Lanarkshire Southern Scotland

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Price in 2015 Q2

% change over 10 years

£275,525 £187,227 £158,074 £156,131 £270,698 £145,062 £171,658 £155,458 £169,909 £168,414 £160,973 £142,327 £139,635

74% 62% 14% 29% 20% 15% 11% 18% 19% 24% 11% 9% 9%

Yorkshire & Humberside Nationwide Sub Regions Bradford East Yorkshire Leeds North Lincolnshire North Yorkshire Sheffield South Yorkshire West Yorkshire York

Annual % change last quarter 10% 7% 1% 5% 11% 0% 6% -2% 7% 5% 1% 7% 6%

Annual % change this quarter 3% -4% 5% 2% 6% 6% 0% -2% 3% 0% -8% 5% 0%


Price in 2015 Q2


£169,066 £157,752 £206,240 £141,396 £208,393 £194,830 £147,720 £162,635 £245,814

3% 6% 6% 9% 7% 15% 1% 4% 23%

Annual % change last quarter 0% 5% 6% 1% 4% 5% 0% -2% 7%


Annual % change this quarter 3% 3% 2% 6% 3% 7% 2% 0% 4%

Northern Ireland


Nationwide Sub Regions

Price in 2015 Q2


City of Belfast Northern Ireland (North East) Northern Ireland (South East) Northern Ireland (West)

£171,847 £131,562 £152,433 £122,334

0% 4% 7% -2%

Price in 2015 Q2


£228,949 £151,471 £166,431 £167,405 £167,422

16% 0% 1% 4% 14%

Price in 2015 Q2


£282,173 £280,036 £289,253 £275,452 £214,713 £262,427 £230,056 £207,879 £186,774 £289,198 £216,712 £239,247 £255,449 £214,162 £246,564

24% 18% 44% 25% 11% 18% 17% 10% 9% 21% 14% 15% 28% 11% 20%

Price in 2015 Q2


£199,066 £216,331 £182,450 £152,562 £165,645 £191,048

7% 8% 10% 0% 3% 11%

Wales Nationwide Sub Regions Cardiff Mid & West Wales North Wales South Wales (East) South Wales (West)

Bath Bournemouth Bristol Cheltenham Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Dorset Gloucestershire North Devon Plymouth Poole Somerset South Devon South Gloucestershire Swindon Wiltshire

Cheshire City of Manchester Greater Manchester Lancashire Merseyside Warrington & Halton

Annual % change last quarter 3% 4% 0% 2% 5%

Annual % change this quarter 3% -2% 0% 0% 0%


North West Nationwide Sub Regions

Annual % change this quarter -3% 6% 4% 11%


South West Nationwide Sub Regions

Annual % change last quarter 10% 6% 7% 12%

Annual % change last quarter 3% 11% 11% 4% 10% 6% 5% 1% 3% 5% 2% 5% 7% 8% 7%

Annual % change this quarter 3% 5% 10% 5% 5% 3% 5% 5% 0% 9% 2% 4% 6% 5% 6%


Annual % change last quarter 4% -1% 5% 4% 3% 6%


Annual % change this quarter 1% 3% 2% -2% 2% 8%

West Midlands Nationwide Sub Regions Birmingham Coventry Greater Birmingham Herefordshire Shropshire Staffordshire Warwickshire Worcestershire


Price in 2015 Q2


£198,131 £190,253 £186,644 £201,721 £187,451 £174,797 £230,269 £213,337

7% 16% 6% 8% 8% 6% 18% 8%

Price in 2015 Q2


£184,605 £183,614 £196,533 £162,096 £206,482 £202,849 £160,446 £178,750 £171,394

8% 10% 11% 5% 14% 15% -2% 12% 6%

Price in 2015 Q2


£339,817 £294,104 £402,316 £326,769 £359,109 £240,418 £240,710 £412,230 £335,097 £358,486 £379,252 £298,166 £488,284 £306,729 £396,535 £326,303 £417,899 £361,614

38% 26% 48% 41% 43% 27% 31% 48% 52% 46% 41% 31% 68% 31% 46% 34% 46% 46%

East Midlands Nationwide Sub Regions Derby Derbyshire Leicestershire Mid Lincolnshire Northampton Town Northamptonshire Nottingham Nottinghamshire South Lincolnshire

Bracknell Forest Central Kent East Surrey Hart & Rushmoor Hertfordshire Luton Medway North Surrey Reading Slough South Buckinghamshire & Chilterns South Essex St Albans West Kent West Surrey West Sussex (North) Windsor & Maidenhead Wokingham

Annual % change this quarter 6% 10% 2% 8% 3% 3% 5% 0%


Outer Metropolitan Nationwide Sub Regions

Annual % change last quarter 5% 9% 5% 10% 5% 4% 8% 3%

Annual % change last quarter 6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 6% 11% 8% 6%

Annual % change this quarter 4% 4% 6% 5% 7% 8% -2% 4% 4%


Annual % change last quarter 10% 7% 12% 12% 12% 6% 14% 10% 19% 19% 12% 14% 22% 10% 11% 10% 14% 12%


Annual % change this quarter 9% 6% 10% 9% 8% 10% 13% 7% 13% 21% 10% 9% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 11%

London London Boroughs Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster


Price in 2015 Q2


£272,935 £459,013 £305,756 £554,345 £372,827 £834,058 £341,309 £507,975 £381,596 £426,001 £627,405 £797,558 £526,565 £402,475 £288,142 £363,188 £392,244 £716,747 £471,135 £574,780 £442,676 £481,507 £374,702 £357,847 £565,748 £579,696 £362,035 £542,401 £417,501 £648,555 £956,907

48% 71% 51% 118% 64% 121% 63% 77% 59% 86% 132% 127% 89% 61% 41% 47% 56% 124% 78% 104% 96% 82% 79% 53% 88% 109% 61% 89% 90% 101% 117%

Annual % change last quarter 22% 12% 11% 8% 13% 11% 19% 15% 20% 17% 10% 11% 6% 14% 13% 13% 5% 7% 19% 12% 15% 3% 20% 16% 13% 10% 18% 6% 17% 10% 9%

Annual % change this quarter 19% 9% 8% 17% 7% -1% 17% 10% 11% 14% 6% 5% 3% 10% 10% 8% -1% 3% 9% 4% 9% 5% 16% 11% 2% 6% 18% -3% 14% 3% 0%

Note: City of London and Kensington & Chelsea excluded due to low sample size

East Anglia



Price in 2015 Q2


Cambridgeshire Norfolk Peterborough Suffolk

£268,411 £208,774 £185,487 £225,430

33% 17% 13% 24%

Annual % change last quarter 14% 7% 0% 10%


Annual % change this quarter 12% 7% 7% 7%

Outer South East Nationwide Sub Regions Basingstoke & Deane Bedford Brighton & Hove Central Bedfordshire East Kent East Sussex Isle of Wight Mid Hampshire Milton Keynes & Aylesbury New Forest North Essex Oxfordshire Portsmouth Area Southampton Area West Berkshire West Sussex (South)


Price in 2015 Q2


£294,661 £226,941 £406,479 £274,312 £236,818 £263,388 £205,603 £314,292 £290,730 £306,684 £250,838 £339,571 £226,810 £256,142 £329,550 £295,143

35% 17% 61% 31% 24% 23% 12% 31% 35% 33% 21% 42% 22% 23% 42% 28%

North

Annual % change last quarter 11% 11% 13% 12% 10% 4% -1% 7% 10% 7% 9% 10% 9% 4% 11% 10%

Annual % change this quarter 8% 7% 10% 12% 7% 6% 1% 4% 11% 8% 5% 10% 6% 3% 9% 8%



Price in 2015 Q2


County Durham Cumbria Northumberland Teesside Tyne and Wear

£157,374 £172,339 £175,973 £158,838 £173,670

13% 14% 6% 4% 3%

Annual % change last quarter 9% 2% 10% 4% 5%


Annual % change this quarter 7% 0% 7% 1% 3%

Notes 1. Indices and average prices for the UK and the regions are produced using Nationwide's updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of 1995. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation. The methodology can be found on our website: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/nationwide-hpi-methodology.pdf 2. Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Quarterly series are seasonally adjusted using data since 1973. The seasonal adjustment is recalculated quarterly and may lead to revisions. 3. The price changes in the sub regional, local authority and major towns and cities tables are based on the price per unit area of the properties in the sample rather than the mix-adjusted methodology used for the 13 regions. The average price per square foot in each of the sub-regions is grossed up by the average square footage in a particular region to arrive at an average house price. Unlike Nationwide’s main index, this methodology does not take into account the different mix of properties transacted and is therefore a simplification. 4. Sub-regional figures are therefore not directly comparable with regional prices. Samples are substantially smaller than at a regional level and figures should not be relied upon for any critical application. Due to greater volatility, sub-regional prices are smoothed over two quarters. Photographs of our economist are available at: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/media-centre-and-specialist-areas/media-centre/photo-library

Legal Information The Nationwide House Price Indices are prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to their accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices at any time, for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Indices for any purpose whatsoever do so at their own risk and should be aware that various factors, including external factors beyond Nationwide Building Society’s control might necessitate material changes to the Indices. The Nationwide House Price Indices may not be used for commercial purposes including as a reference for: 1) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or other contracts relating to investments 2) determining the price at which investments may be bought or sold or the value of investments or 3) measuring the performance of investments. Nationwide Building Society is the owner of the trade mark “Nationwide” and all copyright and other rights in the Nationwide House Price Indices. The application of the IOSCO Principles on financial benchmarks to the NHPI is more fully set out in our statement regarding IOSCO Principles. Nationwide considers that its arrangements for administration of the NHPI comply with the IOSCO Principles in a proportionate manner having regard to the nature of the index.
