Danske Research - Danske Bank Research

4 downloads 273 Views 894KB Size Report
May 25, 2018 - We probably see a cyclical peak in both the eurozone and Sweden and eventually ... Sweden. Head of resear
Investment Research

25 May 2018

Reading the Markets Sweden 

We probably see a cyclical peak in both the eurozone and S weden and eventually it is likely to be a steeper slowdown in S weden compared with the eurozone. In the meantime, CPIF-inflation is underpinned by a weak krona and higher energy prices. This, we think, will lead to a continued relative curve-flattener S WE vs eurozone.



S GB1061 likely to be cheap initially.



S GB1056 dear in AS W terms – sell S GB1056 (June 2032) vs S GB1057 (Nov 2023) in a forward AS W.



What if households pile into fixed rate mortgage loans?



Buy K2206 AS W as summer trade after underperformance



EUR/S EK – trade the range with options

Trades New, we recommend buying SGB1057 against SGB1056 (nom/nom) against receiving in a forward swap between the loans at -50bp. P/L:-25/-70. New, Buy KI2206 ASW @ 0bp as a summer trade after the recent underperformance. P/L: -8bp/+5bp. 3m carry & roll +3bp. Danske Bank’s market view in a nutshell Danske Markets market view in a nutshell

Grade * Last change

Relative value Delta

Long in the short end of the curve (