Delphi technique

Delphi technique:

The methods behind the Horizon Report Library Edition

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EAHIL+ICAHIS+ICLC 2015 Edinburgh, June 11 2015 Guus van den Brekel & Rudolf Mumenthaler

Delphi method • a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts • The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds • After each round experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel • It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer • Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method

Methodology: Timeline • The adapted Delphi technique for the Horizon Report with different steps:

The Horizon Delphi Method • First step: find 50 experts worldwide – It‘s a main task of the editors (principal investigators)

• Second step: • Experts discuss prepared texts, press clippings, blogposts etc. on trends and new technologies in libraries and add new resources

Research Questions • RQ1: Discussion of important developments in technology (about 45 topics) • RQ2: Missing topics? • RQ3: Identify key trends to accelerate technology adoption in libraries • RQ4: Identify significant challenges

The Wiki

http://library.wiki.nmc.org/Makerspaces

First pass voting • After the discussion of the research questions the editors prepare a consolidated list of technologies, trends and challenges • Experts are then asked for a first round voting: which technologies, trends and challenges are most important? – 1-2 years, 3-4 years, more than 5 years? – Solvable, difficult or wicked challenges?

• Each expert has 15 points for each horizon and topic

Second pass voting • After the first round voting the research team at NMC prepares a list of the „semi-finalist“: four topics for each horizon • Then the expert panel is asked for a reversevoting: • Which of the trends, challenges, and important developments in technology listed within each of our three adoption horizons do you think is weakest and *least* deserving of inclusion in the final report?

Creating the report • After the second round voting the list of the final topics is made and sent to the experts • Then the team at NMC writes the report using the discussions in the wiki • The experts are asked to suggest projects in the field of the topics of the report

Publication • Open Access: CC-BY 4.0 • Horizon Report 2014 Library Edition was downloaded over 800‘000 times in the first week of publication! • go.nmc.org/2014-arl

Key Trends 2014 FAST TRENDS: • Increasing Focus on Research Data Management for Publications • Prioritization of Mobile Content and Delivery MID-RANGE TRENDS: • Evolving Nature of the Scholarly Record • Increasing Accessibility of Research Content

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LONG-RANGE TRENDS: • Continual Progress in Technology, Standards, and Infrastructure • Rise of New Forms of Multidisciplinary Research

Significant Challenges 2014 SOLVABLE CHALLENGES: • Embedding Academic and Research Libraries in the Curriculum • Rethinking the Roles and Skills of Librarians DIFFICULT CHALLENGES: • Capturing and Archiving the Digital Outputs of Research as Collection Material • Competition from Alternative Avenues of Discovery WICKED CHALLENGES: • Embracing the Need for Radical Change • Maintaining Ongoing Integration, Interoperability, and Collaborative Projects

Technologies to Watch 2014 ONE YEAR OR LESS:

• Electronic Publishing • Mobile Apps TWO TO THREE YEARS:

• Bibliometrics and Citation Technologies • Open Content

FOUR TO FIVE YEARS:

• The Internet of Things • Semantic Web and Linked Data

Workshop • Which of these trends and challenges are important for medical libraries? – Discussion/Brainstorming (plenary group) – First round voting – Discussion of most important topics in 4 groups – Presentation of results – Second round voting

schedule 14:50-15:10 Discussion of topics: top challenges in the HRLE 2015 15:10-15:15 voting: each participant can vote for 3 topics (coloured bullet points on flipchart). 15:15-15:35 4 groups at 4 tables. Each chooses one of the four favourite challenges and discusses the impact on medical libraries. Documentation on flipchart 15:35-15:45 groups present the results of their discussions (4 min for each group) 15:45-50: final voting: one point for the favourite topic. Conclusion.