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Status of the MEMS industry New Drivers: the Path to New Opportunities JC Eloy ([email protected])

© 2010 Copyrights © Yole Développement SARL. All rights reserved.

Yole Développement • Yole Développement is a market research, technology and strategy consulting company, founded in 1998 and involved in the following fields: • • • • •

MEMS Advanced packaging (3D IC, TSV, SoC, WLP…) Power electronics LED & HB LED Compound semiconductor business (SiC, GaN, AlN, ZnO, Thick SOI…) at substrate and device level • Photovoltaic, from equipment and materials to cell business • Microfluidics and medical technologies

• Our research is performed by in-house personnel conducting openended discussion based interviews. • 28 full time analysts with technical and marketing degrees • Primary research includes over 3,500 interviews annually

• Our customers‟ base and perspectives are global. © 2011•

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4 business models •

Custom analysis: • Largest part of Yole activities • Covered by NDA agreement • From few days to several months of work, depending on subject

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Report‟s publication: • 35 to 40 reports published every year • Available by unit or under Annual Subscription

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Media business:Publication of newsletters on 3D, PV, MEMS, PE, LED...: • Advertising services in Yole magazines and webcasts • Take benefit of our 45 000+ subscribers to be visible and diffuse information on your company and products

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Yole Finance services: • M&A (buy side and sell side)

• Due diligence • Fund raising services © 2011•

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2011 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All right reserved.

What‟s new at YOLE Développement? • 52 persons company with 28 full time analysts covering Mems, Advanced Packaging, Power Electronics, LED, PV and substrates/wafers businesses. • Sales and business development infrastructure in place in Europe, Taiwan and Korea, in addition to Japan and North America • Development of the reverse engineering and reverse costing activities with System + Consulting (S+C), YOLE sister company • Creation of a new line of services dedicated to patent portfolio analysis and freedom to operate (FTO) • Development of YOLE Finance service for M&A on the buy side and sell side © 2011•

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MEMS MARKETS UPDATE

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Maturity of selected MEMS devices in 2012 2015 revenue and CAGR

BAW duplexers for mobile devices / $507M, 10.2% Optical MEMS for front projection / $1098M, 6.7% Optical MEMS switch for WSS ROADM / $262M, 19.3% Automotive TPMS / $391M, 10.6% Microphones for mobile applications / $508M, 11.3%

Microbolometers for defense, security, industrial, auto / $452M, 12.9% Energy harvesting, MEMS Micromotors for watch industry… / $700M

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More than 25 “2nd tiers” players generate annual revenues from $50M to $300M © 2011•

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TOP 30 MEMS players ranking by Business Model ‘TOP 30’ MEMS Players by Business Model $1.000

$762

$738

Fabless

$600 $500

•

$51

$55

$56

$62

$75

$76

$77

$90

$102

$110

$121

$0

$136

$144

$144

$150

$153

$250

$251

$255

$261

$237

$174

$100

$279

$200

$284

$300

$336

$400 $362

US$M revenues

$700

IDM Fablight

$907

$800

Yole Developpement © March 2012 $913

$900

IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) is the predominant business model today in the MEMS industry –

More and more players are moving to a „fab-light‟ strategy, mainly driven by transition to 200mm manufacturing

–

Only 2 companies are fab-less (Knowles and Invensense) in the Top 30

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Typology of MEMS companies Segmentation matrix Size (MEMS business)

Large $300M

Medium $100M

Small 2 devices

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Specialized

4 devices

Number of MEMS devices

Medium portfolio Diversified


Typology of MEMS companies Diagnostic for CY 2010 Size (MEMS business)

Large $300M

Medium $100M

Small … Specialized © 2011•

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… … 2 4 Number of Medium portfolio devices devicesDiversified

MEMS devices


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15 $9,0

$5,0 $9,0

$11,0 $11,8

$12,0 $12,0

$19,0 $15,0

$15,0 $15,2

$12,0 $16,0

$2,0 $1,8

$2,0

$2,6

$4,0

$150,0

$4,0 $4,2

$4,3

$4,0 $6,0

$7,0 $7,0

$7,0 $7,0

$35,0

$30,0 $20,1

$20,0 $23,0

$24,0 $24,0

$31,0 $26,3

$14,0 $17,3

$7,5

$50,0 $37,0 $47,0

$49,0

$240,0 $244,6

$250,0

$30,0 $37,0

$20,0

US$M

2011 MEMS Foundries Ranking 2011 MEMS Foundries Ranking Yole Développement March 2012

$200,0 Datenreihen1 2011

2012 Datenreihen2

$100,0

$0,0


Mobile phone is becoming really a big Mems business...

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MEMS & Sensors in mobile phones

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Mobile Phone Market Penetration of motion sensors • Penetration of all kinds of

Penetration of motion sensors in mobile phones 2500

motion sensors is growing on

90%

cell phones

– Gyroscopes: now mainly on the iPhone, it is expected that we will

Market (Munits)

are integrated on feature phones

2000

80% 70%

1500

60% 50%

1000

40%

see many Android phones

supporting gyroscopes in 2011 

30% 500

20%

Android 2.3 Gingerbread supports

10%

APIs for InvenSense gyros – Compass: penetration increases,

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Penetration (%)

– Accelerometers: more and more

100%

Yole Developpement © Feb. 2011

0

2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 2 015

Total cellphone market TAM 1211 (Munits)

1597

1788

1967

2125

2252

2387

driven by GPS feature (more than

Compass penetration on mobile phones (%)

6%

13%

25%

28%

34%

41%

48%

1B GPS cell phones predicted in

Accelerometer penetration on mobile phones (%)

26%

29%

37%

44%

52%

61%

64%

2015)

Gyroscope penetration on mobile phones (%)

0%

2%

4%

7%

10%

14%

17%

0%


Increasing number of mobile phone functionnalities for inertial sensors Market introduction

Human location & healh monitoring

Market acceptance

With additional sensors and sensor fusion

Barometer Indoor navigation Intelligent 3D sound management In-air signature & authentification

Pointing

With gyroscopes

High resolution camera stabilization Menu navigation & advanced user interface 3D gaming Location-based service

With compass

Map navigation & GPS assistance Pedometer With acceleromete rs

Gaming Portrait / Landscape switching, Tap/double tap and shake control

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201 0

2012

2014

2016

2018


Emergence of combo sensors in consumer •

Global consumer motion sensor market is still growing quickly –

2011-2016 CAGR = 11,4% in value (18,6% in volume)

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After few years of strong growth, the market for standalone motion sensors stabilizes

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Combo sensors are predicted to surge in the coming years –

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Predicted to be $1,04B in 2016 (1,15B units)


Motion Sensing Companies •

Although the number of competitors is high, only a few companies today really dominate the market:

Accelerometers - Freescale - Kionix

Gyroscopes - InvenSense - Epson Toyocom

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ST Bosch

Digital Compasses - AKM


2011 market shares for discrete inertial sensors

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Accelero/Gyros 6DOF + 9/10DOF for mobile phones & tablets Value chain estimation in 2015 2012 market: $130M, 63 Munits

2015 market: $824M, 726Munits MEMS die manufacturing $80M - $100M

ASIC die manufacturing $140M - $160M

Gross Margin FE assembly, test, yield losses

$300M $350M

$100M - $140M Final assembly & packaging $80M - $120M Final test, calibration, yield losses $50M - $80M + Software sale (typically 50 cents per component, for part of the market) $100M - $140M © 2011•

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Inertial sensors value chain in 2011

~ $2.6B industry! (consumer + auto) ~ $350M

~ $450M

ASIC Front-end

MEMS Front-end

~ $420M

~ $270M

~ $30M

Back-end / Packaging

Test & Calibration

Software

SMDK

+ $1.1B gross margin (Cost of sales, G&A, R&D, Operational margin) •

In 2011, the inertial sensor industry is now a $2.6 Billion business! –

~ $450M is related to the MEMS Front-end. This area is stable because the MEMS die cost is being strongly reduced

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~ $350M is related to the ASIC Front-end. This is growing because although the technology nodes are more and more advanced, the need for larger processing capabilities (sometimes with MCUs) increase with combo sensors

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~ $420M is related to the Back-end / Packaging. This area will grow a lot thanks to increasing expertise needed for combo sensors

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~ $270M is linked to Test & Calibration. It is strongly growing, driven by 3-axis gyroscopes and combo sensors

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~ $30M is linked to Software features. It is small today but definitively poised for important growth in the future, especially for combo sensors (for sensor fusion…)

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A lot is happening...

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