ETRI 2014 Energy Technology Reference Indicator projections for 2010-2050
Report EUR 26950 EN
European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and Transport
Contact information Johan Carlsson Address: Joint Research Centre, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 LE Petten, Netherlands E-mail:
[email protected] Tel.: +31 224 565341 Fax: +31 224 565616
http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
This publication is a Science and Policy Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
Legal Notice This publication is a Science and Policy Report by the Joint Research Centre, the European Commission’s in-house science service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policy-making process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.
JRC92496 EUR 26950 EN ISBN 978-92-79-44403-6 ISSN 1831-9424 doi: 10.2790/057687
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2014
© European Union, 2014
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1.1
Reviewers from other services of the European Commission: ............................... 6
1.1.2
The following external reviewers are also gratefully acknowledged: ................ 6
1.1.3
Editors ..................................................................................................................................................... 6
PREAMBLE ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 2
Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 2.1
Definition of parameters......................................................................................................................... 8
2.1.1 2.2
Parameters collected...................................................................................................................... 8
Discussion about selected parameters ........................................................................................ 10
2.2.1
Capital costs ..................................................................................................................................... 10
2.2.2
Quality of CAPEX data evaluation using NUSAP approach .................................... 11
2.2.3
Learning rates ................................................................................................................................. 12
3
Disclaimer............................................................................................................................................................... 13
4
Wind power ............................................................................................................................................................ 14
5
6
7
8
9
4.1
Onshore wind .............................................................................................................................................. 14
4.2
Offshore wind............................................................................................................................................. 15
Solar energy .......................................................................................................................................................... 18 5.1
Commercial solar PV system 0.1-2 MW ..................................................................................... 19
5.2
Commercial solar PV >2 MW without tracking........................................................................ 20
5.3
Commercial solar PV >2 MW with tracking ............................................................................... 20
5.4
Residential solar PV 100 MW ............................................................................... 25
6.2
Hydropower dam and reservoir, 10-100 MW .......................................................................... 25
6.3
Hydropower dam and reservoir, 2 MW without tracking Table 7. Reference indicators for commercial solar PV systems more than 2 MW without tracking. Technical Net electrical power Max. capacity factor Avg. capacity factor Module efficiency Technical lifetime Economical CAPEX ref CAPEX low CAPEX high Quality of CAPEX estimate CAPEX learning rate FOM VOM Environmental Direct GHG emissions Indirect GHG emissions Water consumed Water withdrawn Evolution Max. potential
Unit
2014
2020
2030
2040
2050
MW % % % years
6 17 13 15 25
17 14 17 25
17 16 20 25
17 17 25 25
17 17 30 25
€2013/kW €2013/kW €2013/kW
980 900 1400
800 650 900
580 470 650
520 420 580
%
16 1.7 0
14 1.7 0
640 520 720 low 12 1.7 0
11 1.7 0
10 1.7 0
l/kWh l/kWh
0 45 0 0
0 40 0 0
0 36 0 0
0 32 0 0
0 28 0 0
GW
-
-
-
-
-
% CAPEX ref
€2013/MWh tCO2(eq)/GWh tCO2(eq)/GWh
5.3 Commercial solar PV >2 MW with tracking Table 8. Reference indicators for commercial solar PV systems more than 2 MW with tracking. Technical Net electrical power Max. capacity factor Avg. capacity factor Module efficiency Technical lifetime Economical CAPEX ref CAPEX low CAPEX high Quality of CAPEX estimate CAPEX learning rate FOM VOM Environmental Direct GHG emissions Indirect GHG emissions Water consumed Water withdrawn Evolution Max. potential
Unit
2014
2020
2030
2040
2050
MW % % % years
20 21 18 15 25
21 19 17 25
21 20 20 25
21 21 25 25
21 21 30 25
€2013/kW €2013/kW €2013/kW
1450 1350 1700
1100 850 1400
790 610 1010
710 550 900
% % CAPEX ref €2013/MWh
16 1.5 0
14 1.5 0
890 680 1130 low 12 1.5 0
11 1.5 0
10 1.5 0
tCO2(eq)/GWh tCO2(eq)/GWh l/kWh l/kWh
0 45 0 0
0 40 0 0
0 36 0 0
0 32 0 0
0 28 0 0
GW
-
-
-
-
-
20
5.4 Residential solar PV