eurobarometer 71 - European Commission - Europa EU

EUROBAROMETER 66

Report

Standard Eurobarometer European Commission

EUROBAROMETER 71 Future of Europe

Fieldwork: June - July 2009

Standard Eurobarometer 71/ Spring 2009 - TNS Opinion & Social

Publication: January 2010

This survey was requested and coordinated by the Directorate-General for Communication. http://europa.eu.int/comm/public_opinion/index_en.htm This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors.

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STANDARD EUROBAROMETER 71

“FUTURE OF EUROPE”

TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 3 I

THE EU AT PRESENT ............................................................................ 6 1 1.1

VALUES ...................................................................................................6 THE VALUES TO BE EMPHASISED IN OUR SOCIETY TO FACE MAJOR GLOBAL

CHALLENGES ...................................................................................................6

1.2

THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL VALUES OF EUROPEANS......................................11 1.2.1

State intervention and free competition .........................................11

1.3

ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE ENVIRONMENT ...................................................16

1.4

MONEY AND FINANCIAL PRIORITIES ..........................................................21

1.5

TECHNOLOGY.......................................................................................26

1.6

PRIORITY WHEN LOOKING FOR A JOB ........................................................27

1.7

CHANGING SOCIETY? THE RHYTHM OF REFORM ............................................31

2 2.1

IDENTITY..............................................................................................34 ATTACHMENT TO THE WORLD, THE EU, THE COUNTRY AND THE REGION ..............34 2.1.1

European identity .......................................................................35

2.1.2 National identity ...........................................................................36 2.1.3 Regional identity ..........................................................................37 2.1.4 World citizenship ..........................................................................37 2.2

ELEMENTS THAT MAKE UP A EUROPEAN IDENTITY .........................................39

2.3

FEELING (NATIONALITY) VS. FEELING EUROPEAN ........................................42 2.3.1 Feelings of national identity............................................................42 2.3.2 Feeling European ..........................................................................46

3

IMMIGRATION .................................................................................. 51 3.1

3.2 4

EUROPEAN ATTITUDES TOWARDS IMMIGRATION ...........................................51 3.1.1

Immigration and society ..............................................................52

3.1.2

Immigration and employment.......................................................58

IMMIGRANTS, TAXES AND SOCIAL BENEFITS ................................................61 PENSIONS .............................................................................................64

4.1

EXPECTATIONS FOR PENSIONS .................................................................64

4.2

MANAGEMENT OF PENSION SYSTEMS .........................................................67

4.3

MANAGEMENT OF PENSION SYSTEMS (ASKED OF THOSE NOT WORKING) .............71

5

EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL ISSUES - TODAY ...................................................73

5.1

CARE OF THE ELDERLY............................................................................73

5.2

EXPECTATION OF HELP AND LONG-TERM CARE IN THE FUTURE ..........................78 1


5.3


THE NATIONAL WELFARE SYSTEM TODAY.....................................................83 5.3.1 Provides wide enough coverage ......................................................83 5.3.2 Could serve as a model for other countries .......................................87 5.3.3 Is too expensive for the country’s society.........................................90

5.4

THE JOB MARKET TODAY IN THE EU...........................................................92 5.4.1 Difficulty of finding a good job ........................................................92 5.4.2 Necessity of changing jobs .............................................................94

6

THE ABILITY TO PLAN FOR THE FUTURE .........................................................95

II

EUROPEAN UNION IN 2030 ............................................................... 99

1

SOCIAL ISSUES................................................................................. 99 1.1

THE WELFARE SYSTEM IN THE EU .............................................................99

1.2

THE JOB MARKET TOMORROW IN THE EU .................................................. 105

2.

IMAGINING THE EU IN 2030........................................................... 110

2.1

LIFE IN GENERAL ................................................................................ 110

2.2

MAIN CONCERNS ................................................................................ 113

2.3

THE EU IN 2030: PROJECTIONS ............................................................ 117 2.3.1

: Environment/economy ............................................................ 117

2.3.2

Solidarity/Individualism ............................................................. 119

2.3.3

Work/Leisure ........................................................................... 121

2.3.4 Order/Individual freedom............................................................ 123 2.3.5 Time devoted to family life.......................................................... 125 2.3.6 Tolerance towards ethnic and religious minorities ........................... 127 2.3.7 2.4

Gender equality ........................................................................ 130

THE EU IN 2030: HOPES ..................................................................... 134 2.4.1

Environment/economy............................................................... 134

2.4.2

Solidarity/Individualism ............................................................. 137

2.4.3

Work/Leisure ........................................................................... 139

2.4.4

Order/Individual freedom........................................................... 143

2.4.5

Time dedicated to the family life ................................................. 146

2.4.6. Tolerance towards ethnic and religious minorities ........................... 147 2.4.7 3

Gender equality ........................................................................ 149

ECONOMY AND GEOGRAPHY OF THE EU IN 2030: PROJECTIONS ........ 154 3.1

THE EU IN 2030: AN ECONOMIC POWER? ................................................ 154

CONCLUSION .......................................................................................... 162

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INTRODUCTION

This wave of the Eurobarometer was carried out between 12 June to 6 July 20091; fieldwork was conducted in 31 countries or territories: the 27 European Union Member States, the three candidate countries (Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey) and the Turkish Cypriot Community in the part of the country not controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus. Recent waves of the Standard Eurobarometer have witnessed substantial changes in European public opinion, with some indicators peaking during the ‘feel good’ phase in Spring 2007, and subsequently declining up to the time of the current wave (Spring 2009). These variations in European public opinion were closely related to extensive changes in the financial and economic system, and the resulting crisis continues to impact these results. The effects of these wide-ranging and major changes on European opinion were explored in detail in this wave2. In addition to the usual set of questions which are addressed in the Eurobarometer3, new topics have been included in this wave with the aim of assessing European citizens’ perception of the EU, at present and in the future. The sections regarding the future focus on the EU in 2030. The purpose of this section is to evaluate how optimistic Europeans are about the future of their country and the EU. When comparing the results with their opinion of their current situation, we can see whether they expect life to improve or deteriorate. To gauge the level of optimism about the future of the European Union and the expected the impact of its policies, the questions have been addressed in two ways: firstly assessing opinions today, and secondly measuring hopes and expectations for the future. *****

1 Wave 71.3. For precise details of the fieldwork dates in each country, please refer to the technical specifications. 2 See the first part of this Eurobarometer: The Standard report http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb71/eb71_std_part1.pdf 3 Life in the European Union as it is perceived by European citizens, perceptions and opinions about the EU and its institutions and the perceived role played by the European Union

3



This report is divided into two main parts: 1. The EU at present in which we measure the values Europeans hold, and which they believe should be stressed in the time of crisis. We also explore European, national and regional identity and world citizenship. We then examine Europeans’ expectations for pensions, employment and social issues, and we assess their ability to project themselves into the future. This prepares for the following section regarding the future of the European Union. 2. Looking to the future of the EU in 2030, in which we cover a number of social issues, including the welfare system, the environment and the economy, work and leisure, freedom and family, tolerance towards minorities and gender issues. We also look to Europeans’ expectations of the economy and the geography of the European Union in 2030. Respondents are invited to imagine the future situation in the EU in 2030, drawing the distinction between what they foresee and what they wish for the EU in 2030. The general analysis and the socio-demographic analysis are based on the EU27 results, meaning the average of the results for the 27 Member States. This average is weighted to reflect the actual population of each of the Member States. In this report, we analyse the results and changes at two levels: the average for the 27 Member States (EU27) and the national average. The averages for preceding years represent the results obtained for all the Member States of the European Union as it was composed at the time that the surveys were conducted. We also add a brief commentary on the way in which the answers vary in accordance with respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender etc.) and a number of other indicators. This present report was commissioned by the Directorate-General for Communication and carried out by TNS Opinion & Social. The methodology used is that of the Special Eurobarometer surveys of the Directorate-General for Communication (“Research and Political Analysis” Unit). A technical note concerning the interviews, carried out by the institutes within the TNS opinion & Social network, is annexed to this report. This note specifies the interview method used, as well as the confidence intervals. ***** The Euro barometer web site can be consulted at the following address: http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.htm We would like to take the opportunity to thank all the respondents across the continent who have given their time to take part in this survey. Without their active participation, this study would not have been possible. 4



In this report, the countries are represented by their official abbreviations. The abbreviations used in this report correspond to: ABBREVIATIONS

EU27

European Union – 27 Member States

DK/NA

Don’t know / No answer

BE BG CZ DK D-E DE D-W EE EL ES FR IE IT CY

LT LV LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark East Germany Germany West Germany Estonia Greece Spain France Ireland Italy Republic of Cyprus* Area not controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus Lithuania Latvia Luxembourg Hungary Malta The Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden The United Kingdom

HR TR MK

Croatia Turkey The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia**

CY (tcc)

*

Cyprus as a whole is one of the 27 European Union Member States. However, the “acquis communautaire” is suspended in the part of the country that is not controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus. For practical reasons, only the interviews conducted in the part of the country controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus are recorded in the category “CY” and included in the EU27 average. The interviews conducted in the part of the country not controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus are recorded in the category “CY(tcc)” [tcc: Turkish Cypriot Community]. ** Provisional code which does not prejudge in any way the definitive nomenclature for this country, which will be agreed following the conclusion of negotiations currently taking place at the United Nations.

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I

THE EU AT PRESENT

1

Values

- Europeans would like social equality and solidarity to be most emphasised in society to face global challenges 1.1

The values to be emphasised in our society to face major global

challenges In order to explore values in Europe, a new question was devised4 which asks respondents to choose two answers from a list of items which society should emphasise in order to face major global challenges. QC3 From the following items, which two should our society emphasise in order to face major global challenges? (MAX. TWO ANSWERS) - % EU Social equality and solidarity

45%

Protecting the environment

36%

Progress and innovation

35%

Free trade /market economy

31%

Cultural diversity and openness to others

14% 11%

Traditions

Other (SPONTANEOUS)

1%

None (SPONTANEOUS)

1%

DK

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Their responses suggest that Europeans have a progressive outlook on the development of society, believing the main emphasis should be on ‘social equality and solidarity’ (45%), ‘protecting the environment’ (36%), and ‘progress and innovation’ (35%). A further 31% agreeing that ‘free trade / market economy’ are important features of a society facing global challenges and 14% opt for ‘cultural diversity and openness to others’. A smaller percentage (11%) are perhaps more conservative in their outlook. They believe that ‘traditions’ are a key feature of a society seeking to overcome difficult times. 4 QC3 From the following items, which two should our society emphasise in order to face major global challenges?

6



QC3 From the following items, which two should our society emphasise in order to face major global challenges? (ROTATE - MAX. 2 ANSWERS)

EU27

Social equality and solidarity

Protecting the environment

Progress and innovation

Free trade/ market economy

Cultural diversity and openness to others

Traditions

45%

36%

35%

31%

14%

11%

1%

1%

5%

1%

Other (SPONT.) None (SPONT.)

DK

BE

56%

36%

37%

32%

12%

8%

0%

1%

BG

46%

29%

32%

46%

8%

11%

1%

1%

6%

CZ

42%

35%

30%

36%

14%

17%

0%

1%

3%

DK

38%

48%

39%

35%

25%

6%

0%

0%

2%

DE

50%

31%

42%

37%

12%

8%

0%

1%

2%

EE

40%

27%

35%

36%

16%

10%

1%

0%

9%

IE

36%

36%

33%

32%

17%

11%

1%

0%

12%

EL

52%

55%

37%

19%

10%

15%

0%

0%

0%

ES

55%

38%

34%

22%

14%

7%

2%

0%

5%

FR

58%

50%

32%

21%

16%

10%

0%

1%

2%

IT

39%

27%

35%

30%

14%

12%

1%

1%

6%

CY

62%

52%

24%

26%

10%

14%

0%

0%

3%

LV

46%

17%

31%

55%

8%

5%

1%

1%

6%

LT

47%

21%

27%

53%

11%

7%

0%

1%

6%

52%

34%

20%

13%

8%

1%

0%

2% 6%

LU

52%

HU

41%

25%

49%

27%

10%

14%

1%

1%

MT

36%

43%

35%

38%

10%

10%

0%

0%

6%

NL

43%

27%

47%

33%

23%

6%

0%

0%

4%

AT

50%

39%

33%

32%

13%

16%

2%

1%

1%

PL

34%

27%

33%

32%

11%

14%

1%

0%

8%

PT

50%

31%

27%

13%

9%

13%

0%

1%

11%

RO

39%

36%

33%

41%

9%

12%

1%

0%

6%

SI

53%

29%

41%

32%

13%

8%

2%

1%

2%

SK

49%

38%

38%

35%

10%

11%

1%

1%

4%

FI

46%

35%

45%

30%

20%

9%

0%

0%

1%

SE

50%

60%

33%

29%

19%

3%

0%

0%

1%

UK

29%

38%

31%

32%

17%

14%

1%

1%

10%

CY (tc c

48%

33%

29%

37%

14%

7%

0%

0%

5%

4%

MK

49%

30%

22%

48%

13%

8%

1%

0%

HR

55%

25%

32%

39%

12%

13%

0%

0%

4%

TR

37%

23%

41%

18%

17%

10%

1%

1%

12%

Highest percentage in the EU27

Low est percentage in the EU27

Highest percentage per country

Lowest percentage per country

7



A country-by-country analysis reveals some significant variations in opinion. Whereas respondents in Cyprus (62%) and France (58%) are most enthusiastic about social equality and solidarity, this value is seen as only secondary by the respondents in the UK (29%). Respondents in the UK would like their society to emphasise the environment (38%), but to a lesser extent than those in Sweden (60%), or Greece (55%). In a number of other countries, namely Luxembourg (52%), Denmark (48%), Malta (43%) and Ireland (36%), respondents also emphasised the protection of the environment. At the other end of the scale, respondents in the Baltic countries, in particular in Latvia (17%) and Lithuania (21%), are much less focused on the environment.

8



Respondents from Hungary (49%) and Netherlands (47%), place ‘progress and innovation’ first: it is their main concern. For interviewees in Latvia (55%), Lithuania (53%), Bulgaria (46%) and Romania (41%) ‘free trade/ market economy’ is the number one priority. There are few differences country by country for ‘cultural diversity and openness to others’ and ‘traditions’. In none of the European countries polled were these topics a top priority.

Perhaps because of their relative wealth and comfort,

respondents in Denmark (25%) and the Netherlands (23%) desire cultural diversity and openness the most. Respondents in Czech Republic (17%) and Austria (16%) are the most likely to wish to retain traditions. This also applies to Greece (15%), the UK, Poland, Hungary and Cyprus (all 14%). QC3 From the following items, which two should our society emphasise in order to face major global challenges? (MAX. 2 ANSWERS) - % EU Social Protecting equality and the solidarity environment

Progress Free trade Cultural diversity /market and openness to Traditions and others innovation economy

DK

EU27 Sex Male

45%

36%

35%

31%

14%

11%

5%

43%

36%

38%

34%

13%

10%

4%

Female

46%

36%

32%

28%

15%

11%

6%

Age 15-24

41%

38%

36%

28%

18%

9%

6%

25-39

43%

37%

36%

32%

15%

9%

4%

40-54

46%

36%

37%

32%

14%

10%

4%

55 +

47%

34%

33%

29%

11%

13%

6%

Education (End of) 15-

46%

32%

28%

28%

10%

15%

8%

16-19

47%

35%

35%

32%

12%

11%

5%

20+

43%

39%

41%

32%

19%

7%

2%

41% Still studying Subjective urbanisation Rural village 47% Small/mid size town 44% Large town 42%

40%

40%

28%

20%

8%

4%

37% 35% 34%

34% 35% 37%

30% 31% 32%

11% 14% 16%

11% 11% 10%

5% 5% 5%

The socio-demographic analysis reveals some interesting gender variations. Men tend to place greater importance on free trade and a market economy (34%), and progress and innovation (38%). Women are less likely to do so (28% and 32% respectively). On the other hand, women are more likely to favour emphasis on social equality and solidarity (46%) than men (43%). There are some intriguing differences in the attitudes of different age groups. For the younger age group aged 15-24 (38%), protecting the environment is of greater concern than it is for older respondents (34%). On the other hand, the older group is less likely to cite solidarity (47%), than the young (41%).

9



There is also a very marked difference in opinion between those who left school before the age of 16 and those who stayed in education until the age of 20, regarding ‘progress and innovation’. People whose education ended earlier are far less likely to prioritise ‘progress and innovation’ (28%) than those who studied for longer (41%). Interestingly, the type of community respondents live in affects the values they are likely to prioritise. Village residents choose ‘social equality and solidarity’ (47%) more often than their urban counterparts (42%). However, when asked if Europe should emphasise ‘cultural diversity and openness to others’, people in cities are more likely to agree (16%) than those in rural locations (11%). Similarly city residents are more likely to value ‘progress and innovation’ (37%) than their rural counterparts (34%).

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1.2

The economic and social values of Europeans

1.2.1

State intervention and free competition

- A large majority of Europeans think that the State intervenes too much in their lives, and that free competition is the best way of ensuring economic prosperity State intervention When asked to what extent they agreed, some 61% of Europeans say that the state intervenes too much in their lives5. 24% agree very strongly, 37% tend to agree. 35% disagree, and just 4% have no opinion.

Since Spring 2008 (EB69) when this question was last posed, there has been a small increase in the proportion of Europeans agreeing that 'the State intervenes too much in our lives, up from 58% to 61% (+3 points).

5

QC1a.1 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? 11



However, it should be remembered that regarding globalisation6, the majority of respondents

(73%)

agree

that

‘globalisation

requires

common

global

rules

(“worldwide governance”)’7. These two results may present something of a paradox.

A country-by-country analysis reveals that agreement is strongest in Hungary (75%). Respondents in the UK and Slovenia also feel that there is too much state intervention (both 74%). In contrast, we note that respondents from Finland are the least likely to agree that the state intervenes too much in their lives (38%).

6

QB3.3 For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree. Globalisation requires common global rules ("worldwide governance") 7 See page 187 of the Standard Report EB71: III The European Union today and tomorrow. 4.3.3 The general assessment of globalisation, Common standards. 12



Since the previous time this question was posed, there has been a very marked rise in agreement in Latvia, up from 36% to 66% (+30 points), reflecting the crisis situation in that country. There are significant differences between the three Baltic countries: the high score recorded in Latvia is not reflected in the other two, Lithuania (49%), and Estonia (44%). A socio-demographic analysis shows some key variations in the way different groups perceive the issue of state intervention. Interesting variation emerges with regard to trust in the EU: those who tend to trust the EU are less likely to think that the State intervenes too much in their lives (55% agree with the statement), compared to those who tend not to trust the EU (71%). This could suggest that trust in authority is linked to feelings about state intervention. Similarly, those Europeans who feel things in their country are going in ‘the right direction’ (53%) are far less likely to believe there is too much state intervention than those who believe things are moving in the wrong direction (69%). Overall, despite these differences, all categories of respondents surveyed think that the State intervenes too much in their lives.

13



Free competition Respondents were then invited to react on the concept of free competition, particularly whether they believe it offers the best guarantee of economic prosperity.

A large proportion of Europeans agree (65%) that free competition is the best guarantee for economic prosperity, but not overwhelmingly; only 21% ‘totally agree’. A further 25% disagree that free competition offers the best guarantee, and the remaining 10% don't know. Since the last time this question was posed in Spring 2008 (EB69), there have been modest shifts in the overall proportions of Europeans agreeing that 'free competition is the best guarantee for economic prosperity', up from 61% to 65% (+4 points). However the number of people who disagree is the same (25%), the ‘don't knows’ have fallen from 14% to 11% (-3 points). A country-by-country analysis shows that respondents in Latvia are the most inclined to agree that free competition offers the best guarantee (78%) while interviewees in Finland are the least likely to do so (just 38% responding positively). Respondents in other countries, in particular Greece (50%), Hungary and France (both 48%) are less convinced that free competition offers a guarantee of economic prosperity. 14



A socio-demographic examination of the data shows people who are under most financial pressure (for example those who have difficulties in paying bills most of the time and the unemployed) are less likely to agree that free competition is the best guarantee of prosperity. The concept of free competition appeals most to the more financially secure respondents (67% of those who almost never have difficulties with paying their bills at the end of the month agree with this statement, compared with 55% of those who do struggle financially). Despite these variations, the large majority view in all socio-demographic categories is that free competition is the best guarantee for economic prosperity.

15


1.3


Attitudes towards the environment

- The crisis affects respondents’ answers regarding the relative priority given to the economy and the environment The next question explores whether, at this time of economic crisis, Europeans wish to prioritise the economy over the environment, or vice versa. QC1 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? % EU Agree

Disagree

DK

Economic growth must be a priority for (OUR C OUNTRY), even if it affects the environment (Split A) 50%

EB71 Sp. 2009 EB 69 Sp. 2008

44%

39%

6%

53%

8%

Protecting the environment should be a priority for (OUR 0 C OUNTRY), even if it affects the economic growth (Split B) EB71 Sp. 2009 EB 69 Sp. 2008

71% 74%

24%

5%

19%

7%

In order to assess attitudes to the environment and economy, the total sample was split in half and each group was asked a differently worded question about the prioritisation of the economy and environment8. One statement emphasised economic growth, while the other statement emphasised the environment9. SPLIT A: Economic growth must be a priority for (OUR COUNTRY), even if it affects the environment. 50% of European respondents agree that the economy should take precedence over the environment. Since spring 2008 (EB69), there has been an increase in people agreeing that 'economic growth must be a priority for our country, even if it affects the environment' from 39% to 50% (+11 percentage points). This increase in emphasis on the economy represents a remarkable turnaround in the respondents’ attitudes in just one year. The change in opinion is very dramatic, as the majority of respondents gave priority to the environment in Spring 2008, but one year later the majority now believes the economy must take precedence. The shift in emphasis shows just how powerful the effects of the economic and financial crisis have been on Europeans’ values. 8

A technique known as a ‘split ballot’. QC1a To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?: SPLIT A: Economic growth must be a priority for (OUR COUNTRY), even if it affects the environment. SPLIT B: Protecting the environment should be a priority for (OUR COUNTRY), even if it affects the economic growth. 16 9



An analysis by country reveals that respondents in Ireland (67%) and Hungary (64%) are most likely to agree that the economy should be prioritised over the environment. On the other hand, in Finland (68%) and the Netherlands (67%), a large majority of respondents disagree. The greatest increases in the proportion of respondents who believe that the economy should take priority have taken place in Ireland, where agreement has risen from 44% to 67% (+23 points), Malta from 27% to 48% (+21 points), and Sweden from 27% to 48% (+21 points). In all other countries, except Portugal, the call for emphasis on the economy has increased since 2008. In Portugal in spring 2008, the majority (52%) was already in favour of prioritising the economy, and this has remained constant. SPLIT B: Protecting the environment should be a priority for (OUR COUNTRY), even if it affects the economic growth. 71% of Europeans agree with this statement. Just 24% disagreed. There has been a slight decline in the numbers agreeing that 'protecting the environment should be a priority for our country, even if it affects economic growth' from 74% to 71% (-3 points). The proportion of people who disagree that the environment should come first is up from 19% to 24% (+5 points). A breakdown of results by country shows that respondents from Denmark (90%), Sweden and France (84% each) and Cyprus (83%) tend to strongly favour preservation of the environment over the economy. In Cyprus, 56% of respondents 'totally agree' with the statement. The Netherlands is the only country where less than half of the respondents think that the environment should be given priority, even if it affects the economic growth (44% agree, vs. 53% disagree). The strongest decline in agreement that the environment should come first is recorded in the Czech Republic, where agreement has fallen from 76% to 60% (-16 points) and in the Netherlands, where it has dropped from 58% to 44% (-14 points).

17



18



QC1a To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - % Total ''agree'' EU (SPLIT A) Economic growth must be a priority for (OUR COUNTRY), even if it affects the environment

EU27 Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Education (End of) 1516-19 20+ Still studying Respondent occupation Self- employed Managers Other white collars Manual workers House persons Unemployed Retired Students Priority regarding job Good salary Job security Interesting job

(SPLIT B) Protecting the environment should be a priority for (OUR COUNTRY), even if it affects the economic growth

Agree

Disagree

Agree

Disagree

50%

44%

71%

24%

47% 50% 49% 52%

47% 46% 45% 41%

73% 71% 71% 69%

23% 24% 25% 24%

56% 52% 43% 44% scale 48% 46% 49% 52% 46% 52% 53% 44%

35% 43% 53% 50%

67% 69% 75% 74%

25% 25% 22% 21%

46% 51% 47% 42% 44% 44% 40% 50%

72% 74% 73% 69% 66% 67% 71% 74%

24% 22% 23% 26% 26% 26% 23% 21%

55% 53% 39%

38% 41% 58%

68% 71% 74%

25% 24% 23%

Interesting variations are seen in the analysis of socio-demographic groups. SPLIT A: The level of education has a significant impact on respondents’ answers. Among those who left school the earliest, 56% agree the economy should come first compared to just 43% of those who studied longest agree. Occupational status also has a bearing on the answers to this question; manual workers tend to prioritise the economy (52% agree), compared to students (44%). 55% of those who believe a ‘good salary’10 is a priority when looking for a job believe the economy should be prioritised over the environment. In contrast, just 39% of those who seek ‘an interesting job’ agree economic growth must be a priority for our country even if it affects the environment. However, when the question placing the emphasis on the environment is asked to the respondents, a somewhat different pattern emerges.

10 QC6 Regardless of whether you're actually looking for a job, which of the following would you, personally, put as your top priority? Good salary; Job security; An interesting job. This question is analysed page 29 of this report: 1.6: Priority when looking for a job 19



SPLIT B: Age is a significant factor in the way people views this debate; younger people 15-24 (73%) tend to agree more that the environment should be, a priority over the economy whereas fewer (69%) people 55 years or over tend to agree. Once again, level of education is a key determinant of opinion. Respondents who finished education earlier (67%) are less likely to agree that the environment should be a priority rather than the economy, compared with 75% of those who completed education aged 20 or above. In this case, 68% of respondents who would prioritise a ‘good salary’ if they were looking for a job agree that ‘protecting the environment should be a priority for our country even if it affects the economic growth’, as compared with 74% of the people who prefer to look for 'an interesting job'.

20


1.4


Money and financial priorities

- Europeans would prefer a society which puts less emphasis on money and material possessions When asked if it would be a good thing if there was ‘less emphasis on money and material possessions’, a clear majority of Europeans (56%) agree11. One quarter (24%) see this as 'neither a good nor bad", 14% consider it would be a bad thing and a further 6% are unable to form an opinion.

A country-by-country breakdown shows some intriguing attitudes towards postmaterialism12. Respondents in Ireland are the most likely to appreciate a less materialistic way of life, with 70% thinking that less emphasis on money and material possessions would be ‘a good thing’. They are closely followed by respondents in Greece and Slovenia (69% in both countries), the Netherlands (67%), Denmark and Spain (both 66%). It should be noted that, consistent with Inglehart’s theory, evidence of postmaterialist attitudes is generally decreasing in the difficult economic times witnessed since the beginning of the global crisis.

11 QC2.1 If the following changes to our way of life were to happen in the near future, do you think it would be a good thing, a bad thing, or neither a good nor bad thing? 12 The post-materialism theory was proposed by the political analyst Ronald Inglehart who suggested that an increase in wealth coupled with an absence of war leads to decreasing interest in material possessions and greater focus on personal wellbeing. See Ronald Inglehart: The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles among Western Publics, Princeton University Press, 1977. 21



In Italy just 39% of respondents say that less emphasis on money and material possessions in the future would be a good thing. In Latvia (36%) and Estonia (35%), respondents tend to be less enthusiastic about the concept, perhaps, especially in the two latter countries - as a result of the economic crisis. However, respondents in all the Northern European countries think that it would be a good thing, their responses indexing above the European average. No clear geographical pattern can be identified in the South of Europe: Greece and Spain are at the top of the scale, whereas Italy is at the bottom. A socio-demographic breakdown of results reveals few variations within gender and age. Level of education shows to be of some relevance: 62% of those who left school at the age of 20 or after think that less emphasis on money and material possessions would be a good thing, vs. 53% of those who stopped their studies before 16. Respondents’ motivation when looking for a job is also influential in this regard. Of those who look for ‘a good salary’, just over half (51%) think less emphasis on money and possessions would be a positive step. However, considerably more of those who seek ‘an interesting job’ (65%) would like to see less importance placed on money and material goods.

22



- Paying the bills is the first financial priority of Europeans Having a hypothetical opinion regarding the place of money in our society is one thing; the constraints of the daily life are another. When asked about their chief financial priorities, Europeans put 'paying the bills' (59%), 'having some savings for emergencies' (44%), 'living as well as I can on my current income' (41%), as top of their list13. Next among their priorities are 'protecting my family in case I am unable to work' (28%), 'paying off debts' (22%), and 'saving for retirement' (16%).

QC5 What are your top three financial priorities? (MAX. 3 ANSWERS) - % EU EB63 Sp. 2005

EB71 Sp. 2009 59%

Paying the bills

66%

Having some savings for emergencies

44%

Living as w ell as I can on my current income

41% 44%

50%

Protecting my family in case I am ill/ unable to w ork

28% 23% 22% 22%

Paying off debts 16% 16%

Saving for retirement Passing on money to my children/ grand-children

14% 14%

Buying a house/ apartment

12% 14%

Starting up a business

4% 3%

Other (SPONTANEOUS)

1% 1%

None (SPONTANEOUS)

2% 0%

DK

1% 2%

Europeans rate other potential priorities as less important. These include 'passing on money to children/grand-children' (14%), and 'buying a house or apartment' (12%). Just 4% of Europeans say they want to prioritise starting a business. A further 1% has no opinion on this subject. Since Spring 2004 (EB63.2), there have been moderate changes in the answers to this question.

13

QC5 What are your top three financial priorities? 23



The only rise is in the proportion of Europeans who prioritise 'protecting my family in case I am ill/ unable to work', up from 23% to 28% (+5 points). The greatest fall is in 'having some savings for emergencies', down from 50% to 44% (-6 points). Apart from these developments, it is interesting to note that despite the current downturn, the financial priorities of Europeans have remained fairly stable over the past 5 years. There are some variations in financial priorities in different countries: In a number of countries, respondents choose ‘paying the bills’ over all other financial obligations. For respondents in Sweden (84%), Latvia (77%) and Finland (76%) this is the primary goal. On the other hand, in Italy (38%), Germany (54%) and Spain (55%), respondents are least likely to prioritise ‘paying the bills’. Respondents in other countries have different financial priorities. In the Netherlands (67%), Greece (60%) and the Czech Republic (57%) respondents’ main financial priority is to ‘save some money for emergencies’. At the opposite end of the spectrum, respondents in Finland (25%), Portugal (26%) and Latvia (28%) tend to focus on this least. In Denmark (61%), Finland (58%) and UK (56%), respondents prefer to live ‘as well as I can on my income’, whereas respondents in Poland (16%), and Czech Republic (29%) are least likely to name this their top financial priority. Turning to the trends since Spring 2004, the greatest rise in 'protecting my family in case I am ill or unable to work' is seen in Latvia, where there has been an increase from 26% to 36% (+10 points). Respondents in other countries also report an increase in concern for financial security, even in the more comfortable Nordic countries. The proportion of respondents saying ‘protecting the family’ has risen in Denmark 26% to 34% (+8 points) and Finland 23% to 31% (+8 points). The biggest decline in 'having some savings for emergencies' is in Portugal where we see a very marked drop from 52% to 26% (-26 points). The socio-demographic differences in responses are quite intriguing. It appears that men are less likely to make 'paying the bills' (56%) a financial priority than women (62%). Similarly, fewer men prioritise 'having some savings for emergencies’; 41% men agree compared to 46% of women. Age also has a bearing on financial priorities. For example, logically, those respondents who are older aged 55+ are far more likely to want to save to pass on money to their children or grandchildren (23%) compared to younger adults (4%). 24



However, older people are more likely to have paid for their housing, so buying an apartment or house is a much lower priority (3%) than for younger respondents (25%). Quite logically financial comfort affects respondents’ plans. Those respondents who ‘almost never’ have difficulty paying the bills are more likely to choose ‘savings for emergencies’ (49%), compared to those who have difficulty ‘most of the time’ (30%). The financially comfortable are also more inclined to ‘live as well as I can on my current income’ (49%) compared to those to have difficulty paying bills (38%). Those who struggle to pay their bills most of the times are more focused on ‘paying off debts’ (43%) than what those who are almost never facing this problem (15%).

25


1.5


Technology - More than two-third of Europeans are technophiles -

The survey reveals that Europeans are ‘technophiles’, 68% of them think it would be a good thing if there were more emphasis on the development of technology14. Just 9% believe it would be ‘a bad thing’. A further 18% are ambivalent, thinking that it would be 'neither good nor bad'. A relatively small number, 5%, have no opinion.

If a majority hold this opinion in all countries, its strength differs significantly from one country to another. The analysis by country shows that respondents in Spain and Malta (both 79%) are most positive about the prospect of technological development. In contrast, respondents in Italy show the least interest in that field, with just 49% thinking it a good thing and a further 23% considering it neither good nor bad. In the candidate countries respondents are in favour of technological development. In Croatia, where 73% think it would be ‘a good thing’, Turkey (70%) and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (69%) approval ratings are in line with the European average. Socio-demographic analysis of the results shows few differences.

14

QC2.2 If the following changes to our way of life were to happen in the near future, do you think it would be a good thing, a bad thing, or neither a good nor bad thing? More emphasis on the development of technology 26


1.6


Priority when looking for a job - The crisis makes Europeans focus primarily on job-security -

The next question is designed to explore the things that Europeans look for when they are seeking a job. Respondents’ views are sought even if they are not actively seeking a job at the time of the interview. Most Europeans give top priority to ‘job security' (47%) when they look for employment15. A quarter of European respondents cite a 'good salary' and 'an interesting job' (both 25%) when looking for work. It appears this is a subject about which people have decided views, as only a few people had no opinion (3%).

An analysis by country shows a wide variation in responses. In wealthier countries ‘an interesting job’ is given greater priority, whereas respondents from less prosperous countries tend to prioritise ‘a good salary’ and ‘job security’. In Lithuania (54%), Poland (46%), Bulgaria (44%) and Cyprus (38%), the majority of respondents agree that a good salary is paramount, but job security is more important in most European countries, not least to respondents in Portugal (63%) and Hungary (61%).

15

QC6 Regardless of whether you're actually looking for a job, which of the following would you, personally, put as your top priority? 27



QC6 Regardless of whether you're actually looking for a job, which of the following would you, personally, put as your top priority? Job security

Good salary

An interesting job

DK

EU27

47%

25%

25%

3%

BE

49%

20%

29%

2%

BG

43%

44%

7%

6%

CZ

46%

35%

16%

3%

DK

20%

7%

71%

2%

DE

53%

20%

25%

2%

EE

43%

27%

27%

3%

IE

43%

29%

25%

3%

EL

54%

36%

10%

0%

ES

54%

24%

17%

5%

FR

43%

17%

37%

3%

IT

58%

24%

15%

3%

CY

34%

38%

27%

1%

LV

54%

27%

17%

2%

LT

18%

54%

26%

2%

LU

57%

11%

30%

2%

HU

61%

33%

5%

1%

MT

52%

20%

26%

2%

NL

26%

12%

58%

4%

AT

51%

28%

18%

3%

PL

34%

46%

15%

5%

PT

63%

24%

9%

4%

RO

51%

38%

4%

7%

SI

42%

25%

29%

4%

SK

52%

36%

10%

2%

FI

33%

8%

59%

0%

SE

19%

11%

69%

1%

UK

40%

20%

36%

4%

C Y (tcc)

52%

35%

8%

5%

MK

57%

33%

6%

4%

HR

60%

30%

9%

1%

TR

40%

52%

4%

4%

Highest percentage per item in the EU 27 Highest percentage per country

Lowest percentage per item in the EU27 Lowest percentage per country

A different pattern emerges in the Northern European countries; respondents in Denmark rate 'a good salary' lower (7%), and the respondents in Denmark (71%), Sweden (69%), Finland (59%) and the Netherlands (58%) place by far more emphasis on having 'an interesting job'. 28



This is likely to be strongly linked to the relative wealth of these countries, which may allow respondents to focus on job criteria other than money or security. In other countries, such as Romania (4%), having an interesting job is a much lower priority. Looking to the candidate countries, respondents in Turkey want a ‘good salary’ (52%) above all, with ‘job security’ (40%) close behind, ‘an interesting job’ (4%) is given by far the lowest priority. A socio-demographic breakdown of the results shows that younger people aged 15-24 are more likely to seek a good salary (32%) compared to older people 55+ (18%). On the other hand, older people are more interested in job security (50%) than their younger counterparts (37%). Level of education also has a bearing on responses to this question. Respondents who stayed in education for longer tend to seek 'an interesting job' (39%) more often than the less educated (16%), perhaps because educational achievement affords greater opportunity to seek a stimulating career. Occupation status also influences job expectations. For example, company managers are more likely to want an 'interesting job' (40%) than manual workers (19%). The latter are more inclined to seek job security (52%) than managers (38%). Of all the socio-demographic groups, only managers (40%) and students (36%) prioritise having ‘an interesting job’ over other factors. Given their academic and occupational achievement, it is likely they assume they will readily achieve a good level of salary and security, so they are more able to focus on the issue of job satisfaction.

29



QC6 Regardless of whether you're actually looking for a job, which of the following would you, personally, put as your top priority? Job security EU27 Sex Male Female Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Education (End of) 1516-19 20+ Still studying Respondent occupation Self- employed Managers Other white c ollars Manual workers House persons Unemployed Retired Students

Good salary

An interesting job

DK

47%

25%

25%

3%

45% 48%

27% 23%

25% 25%

3% 4%

37% 46% 49% 50%

32% 29% 25% 18%

29% 24% 25% 24%

2% 1% 1% 8%

56% 50% 39% 32% scale 42% 38% 47% 52% 53% 50% 49% 32%

21% 27% 20% 30%

16% 20% 39% 36%

7% 3% 2% 2%

26% 21% 28% 28% 21% 28% 19% 30%

30% 40% 24% 19% 21% 20% 24% 36%

2% 1% 1% 1% 5% 2% 8% 2%

30


1.7


Changing society? The rhythm of reform - Society should be reformed, but little by little -

Europeans have no doubt about the fact that changes are needed, but there are divergences of opinion about how quickly these changes should occur. 62% of Europeans believe that changes in society are best achieved more slowly, even if this approach takes longer16. However, 28% believe in more radical changes: they think that we can only obtain important changes in our society by acting quickly, even if this means sometimes being radical. A small number of European respondents spontaneously say that no change is needed (4%). A further 6% have no opinion.

A country-by-country analysis suggests that wealthier countries are more comfortable with a gradual approach to change. Respondents in Denmark (75%), Sweden (74%) and Germany (74%) believe that changes are better made slowly. Spain (74%) and Malta (73%) also prefer such an approach.

16

QC4 Which of the following statement best describes your opinion on how to change our society? 31



However, the Member States that have joined the EU recently are more inclined towards making changes more quickly, favouring a more radical approach (35%) than the more ancient Member States of EU15 (27%). The EU15 Member States collectively prefer changes to be made ‘little by little’ (64%) compared to the countries that joined the EU since 2004 (54%). It seems likely that the newer Member States are more familiar with a rapid pace of change, since they share a common history of more radical reform and have become accustomed to an accelerated pace of change in recent years.

QC4 Which of the following statements best describes your opinion on how to change our society?

EU27

Important changes in our society have to be achieved little by little, even if this approach takes longer

One can only obtain important changes in our society by acting quickly, even if this means sometimes being radical

We do not need to change our society (SPONTANEOUS)

DK

62%

28%

4%

6%

DK

75%

21%

2%

2%

DE

74%

18%

4%

4%

ES

74%

18%

2%

6%

SE

74%

20%

1%

5%

MT

73%

17%

2%

8%

NL

70%

25%

2%

3%

LT

69%

21%

3%

7%

FI

66%

27%

5%

2%

BE

64%

31%

4%

1%

LU

64%

28%

6%

2%

EE

62%

26%

4%

8%

PL

62%

26%

5%

7%

UK

62%

26%

5%

7%

IE

61%

25%

4%

10%

CY

61%

32%

3%

4%

FR

59%

35%

2%

4%

AT

57%

28%

11%

4%

SI

56%

37%

4%

3%

EL

54%

42%

4%

0%

IT

54%

33%

6%

7%

RO

52%

35%

2%

11%

SK

52%

41%

3%

4%

HU

49%

41%

5%

5%

CZ

47%

45%

4%

4%

LV

47%

49%

1%

3%

PT

46%

34%

5%

15%

BG

33%

53%

3%

11%

CY (tcc)

45%

42%

4%

9%

HR

53%

37%

4%

6%

TR

52%

29%

6%

13%

MK

56%

36%

2%

6%

Highest percentage in the EU27 Highest percentage per country

Low est percentage in the EU27 Lowest percentage per country

32



A socio-demographic analysis shows only few differences: in all categories surveyed, the majority agree that important changes in our society have to be achieved little by little, even if this approach takes longer. It should be noted however, that respondents under 40 are slightly more inclined to favour quick changes compared with the others: 31% of the 15-24, 32% of the 25-39, compared to 29% of the 40-45 and 24% of the 55+.

33



2

Identity

2.1

Attachment to the world, the EU, the country and the region

The next questions are designed to reveal Europeans’ feelings of identity with their own nation, the EU and the world17. We can establish a hierarchy of these feelings according to their strength. For the Europeans polled, the strongest feeling of belonging is to a nation (94%), followed by a region (91%). Some way behind these comes ‘feeling European’; last, but growing fastest, there is feeling ‘a citizen of the world’.

QE4. Thinking about this, to what extent do you personally feel you are… Total Yes

Total No

(Nationality) (EB71, Spring 2009)

94%

(EB69, March - May 2008)

93%

DK

5% 6%

1% 1%

Inhabitant of your region (EB71, Spring 2009)

91%

8%

1%


91%

8%

1%

European (EB71, Spring 2009)

74%


A citizen of the world (EB71, Spring 2009) (EB69, March - May 2008)

25%

71%

64% 59%

27%

34% 39%

1% 2%

2% 2%

17 QE4 Thinking about this, to what extent do you personally feel you are… 1. European; 2. (NATIONALITY); 3. Inhabitant of your region; 4. A citizen of the world. Scale of answers: To a great extent; Somewhat; Not really; Not at all. 34


2.1.1


European identity

A majority of European respondents feel they are European (74%), which is an increase of 3 percentage points since Spring 2008. A third (32%) feel European ‘to a great extent’. Similarly, the percentage of those who ‘do not feel European’ has decreased slightly. In Spring 2009, just one quarter (25%, -2 points) of the respondents said that they do not feel European.

A country-by-country analysis shows that the highest proportion of respondents who 'feel European' are found in Slovakia (90%), but there are also high levels in Luxembourg (89%), Sweden (88%), Hungary (87%), Denmark (86%), Germany (85%), Finland (85%) and Belgium (83%). At the other end of the scale, respondents from the UK (48%) and Greece (53%) are the least likely to say they ‘feel European’.

35



The analysis of national evolutions reveals that the greatest increases in ‘feeling European’ occurred in France 63% to 74% (+11 points), maybe as a result of the French Presidency of the European Union in the second half of 2008, and in Luxembourg, up from 78% to 89% (+11). A socio-demographic analysis of results shows some differences, in particular in accordance with age and the level of education. Older respondents (69% of over 55s) and those who left education earliest (62%) are less likely to ‘feel European’ than the youngest group (78% of the 15-24) and those educated to age 20 or who are still studying (both 83%). Finally, people who ‘tend to trust’ the EU are far more likely to see themselves as European (87%) than those who 'tend not to trust’ the EU (62%).

2.1.2 National identity Nearly all respondents feel that they share the national identity of the country they live in (94%), but some 5% don't. Despite changes in the world around them, the proportion of people who identify with the country they live in has remained constant since Spring 2008, up just 1 percentage point from 93% to 94%. A country-by-country analysis reveals that respondents in the Czech Republic and in Finland feel their national identity most keenly (both 99%), However, although slightly fewer respondents from Luxembourg (81%) and Latvia (86%) feel this, they still form the large majority. Results have remained very stable, with only Latvia seeing any significant movement, down from 92% to 86% (-6 percentage points). Ireland, on the other hand, shows a significant increase of 5 percentage points, up from 91% to 96%. The socio-demographic analysis shows very few differences in this instance, with all groups polled identifying with the country they live in (all groups over 90%).

36



2.1.3 Regional identity A large majority of respondents identify themselves with their region (91%). Just 8% do not see themselves in that way, and a further 1% gave no answer. A remarkable 68% strongly feel they belong to their region. Regional identity is strongest in Czech Republic (99%), Cyprus, Bulgaria and Slovakia (97% each) This feeling is less pronounced in the UK (83%) and the Netherlands (84%). In the candidate countries, regional identity is slightly more affirmed in Croatia (97%) and in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (95%) than in Turkey (88%). Overall there has been no change in perceptions of regional identity since the last time this question was asked (Spring 2008, EB69). However there is a slight rise in Denmark, up from 85% to 91% (+6 points) and in Ireland, up from 86% to 91% (+5 points). The socio-demographic analysis shows that all categories of Europeans identify with their region to the same extent, despite minor differences.

2.1.4 World citizenship Compared to the European, national and regional identity, feelings of 'global citizenship' are less widespread. Some 64% of respondents agree they feel 'a citizen of the world' to some extent, 34% do not, and 2% ‘don’t know’. Interestingly, there has been an increase in the numbers of Europeans who feel citizen of the world. Since this question was last asked in Spring 2008 there has been an increase from 59% to 64% (+5 points). There is also a rise from 24% to 30% (+6 points) among those identifying themselves as global citizens ‘to a great extent’. The sense of global citizenship is greatest in Romania (85%), Malta (84%) and Spain (84%) but is the least common in Czech Republic (35%). In terms of evolution in individual countries, the greatest increases are seen in Luxembourg, up from 46% to 63% (+17 points) and Belgium, up from 56% to 69% (+13 points).

37



QE4.4 Thinking about this, to what extent do you personally feel you are…? % EU A citizen of the world EU27 Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Education (End of) 1516-19 20+ Still studying Respondent occupation scale Self-employed Managers Other w hite collars Manual w orkers House persons Unemployed Retired Students Self-positioning on the social ladder Low (1-4) Medium (5-6) High (7-10)

Total Yes

Total No

DK

64%

34%

2%

71% 69% 65% 58%

26% 29% 34% 40%

3% 2% 1% 2%

54% 63% 70% 74%

44% 35% 29% 23%

2% 2% 1% 3%

69% 71% 68% 65% 57% 63% 57% 74%

29% 28% 30% 33% 42% 34% 41% 23%

2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3%

56% 66% 71%

42% 33% 28%

2% 1% 1%

There are interesting differences reflecting the socio-demographic profile of respondents. Younger people 15-24 (71%), those who were longest in education (70%), managers (71%) and students (74%) are more likely to feel that they are citizens of the world. Another significant factor in understanding respondents’ feeling of global citizenship is self-positioning on the social ladder18. Among those positioning themselves at the lower end of the ladder, only 56% regard themselves as citizens of the world, compared to 71% of those positioning themselves at the top.

18 On the following scale, step '1' corresponds to "the lowest level in the society"; step '10' corresponds to "the highest level in the society". Could you tell me on which step you would place yourself? Low: scores 1 to 4; Medium: 5 and 6; High: 7 to 10. 38


2.2


Elements that make up a European identity

Having established that the majority of respondents feel European (though less than they identify with their country or region), we can now explore what they believe goes to make up that European identity.

QE1 In your opinion, which of the following are the two most important elements that go to make up a European identity? - % EU 41%

Democratic values 25%

Geography A high level of social protection

24%

Common history

24% 23%

Common culture Entrepreneurship

11% 8%

Common religious heritage

Other (SPONTANEOUS)

1%

None/ There is no European identity (SPONTANEOUS)

5%

DK

8%

When asked to define the two most important elements that make up a 'European' identity, respondents select 'democratic values' (41%) above all other options19. Europeans rate 'geography' as the next most defining feature of a European identity (25%) Two other features tie for third place; 'common history' and 'a high level of social protection' (both 24%), followed by a 'common culture' (23%). 'Entrepreneurship' is rated among the least important elements listed (11%). The last of the options rated is a 'common religious heritage' (8%). Just 5% of respondents spontaneously state that 'there is no European identity'. A further 8% gave no answer.

19 QE1 In your opinion, which of the following are the two most important elements that go to make up a European identity? 39



QE1 In your opinion, which of the following are the two most important elements that go to make up a European identity? (ROTATE - MAX. 2 ANSWERS) - % EU Democratic values

Geography

Common history

A high level of social protection

Common culture

Entrepreneurship

Common religious heritage

EU27

41%

25%

24%

24%

23%

11%

8%

BE

53%

19%

19%

33%

21%

19%

7%

BG

36%

37%

22%

23%

26%

9%

5%

CZ

43%

20%

24%

31%

23%

13%

6%

DK

72%

13%

24%

36%

20%

11%

5%

DE

52%

19%

24%

35%

20%

8%

8%

EE

34%

24%

21%

31%

23%

21%

5%

IE

32%

34%

27%

24%

25%

9%

8%

EL

33%

47%

21%

21%

22%

11%

7%

ES

30%

37%

30%

10%

29%

9%

4%

FR

47%

36%

26%

21%

23%

15%

6%

IT

40%

19%

22%

25%

28%

14%

10%

CY

53%

23%

19%

32%

29%

10%

13%

LV

26%

50%

19%

22%

14%

20%

6%

LT

44%

15%

10%

47%

17%

14%

4%

LU

50%

19%

25%

36%

19%

7%

7%

HU

37%

24%

35%

24%

25%

8%

7%

MT

50%

26%

13%

31%

25%

6%

12%

NL

54%

31%

21%

28%

18%

12%

8%

AT

43%

28%

26%

31%

27%

6%

9%

PL

27%

22%

26%

14%

27%

18%

14%

PT

26%

19%

21%

18%

19%

7%

5%

RO

30%

24%

32%

26%

21%

9%

12%

SI

34%

41%

27%

20%

17%

16%

7%

SK

37%

37%

28%

28%

21%

10%

11%

FI

48%

27%

22%

34%

22%

13%

10%

SE

77%

17%

14%

44%

14%

9%

4%

UK

35%

21%

18%

19%

21%

4%

8%

CY (tcc)

35%

30%

14%

24%

16%

11%

17%

MK

36%

23%

21%

30%

19%

11%

10%

HR

35%

33%

21%

15%

22%

24%

10%

TR

20%

18%

20%

14%

24%

9%

22%

Highest per item in the EU27



40



Some interesting differences between countries emerge. In Sweden (77%) and Denmark (72%) respondents rate democratic values highest. The more moderate score of Finland (48%) prevents us from identifying a Nordic pattern here. Overall, 19 Member States select this item as the most important element making up a European identity. Respondents in Latvia are most likely to think that the geography of Europe is the most important element (50%), followed interviewees in Greece (47%), Slovenia (41%), Bulgaria (37%) and Spain (37%). Respondents in Denmark are the least likely to agree (13%). Respondents from Hungary (35%) and Romania (32%) tend to think that 'common history' is an important element making up a European identity. For respondents in Romania, it is the most important element. Respondents in Lithuania gave this element the lowest score (10%). A 'high level of social protection' is selected by respondents in Lithuania (47%) as a key element in creating a European identity, but this is less of a priority for respondents in Spain (10%). High proportions of respondents in Spain and Cyprus (both 29%) and Italy (28%) cite 'common culture'. The country where the 'common religious heritage' was the most largely selected was the candidate country Turkey (22%). There are fewer socio-demographic than national differences; however, some differences reflect levels of education. Only a third of those (30%) whose education ended earliest regard democratic values as important, compared to half (49%) of the respondents who remained in education longest. The less educated (23%) are also less likely to mention a common history as an item contributing to a European identity than those who spent longest in education (27%). The same pattern is seen for geography; those who left education earlier (25%) tend to mention this less often than those who studied longer (29%).

41


2.3


Feeling (nationality) vs. Feeling European

To compare the factors affecting European and national identity, a similar question was asked, about the most important characteristics to be European, and to be a national of any one country in the European Union, allowing us to compare the elements side by side and to look for similarities and differences.

2.3.1 Feelings of national identity

QE2 People differ in what they think it means to be (NATIONALITY). In your view, among the following, what do you think are the most important characteristics to be (NATIONALITY)? (MAX. 3 ANSWERS)- % EU

To feel (NATIONALITY)

42%

To be born in (OUR C OUNTRY)

42% 37%

To share (NATIONALITY) cultural traditions To master (C OUNTRY LANGUAGE) + To master one of the official languages of (OUR C OUNTRY)*

29%

To exercise citizens' rights, for example voting in (OUR C OUNTRY)

29% 25%

To have been brought up in (OUR C OUNTRY) 13%

To have at least one (NATIONALITY) parents

10%

To be a C hristian Being active in any association or organization in (OUR C OUNTRY)

5%

Other (SPONTANEOUS)

1%

None (SPONTANEOUS)

1%

DK 3% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

* Asked only to multilanguage countries; BE, ES, LU, MT and FI

Two answers tie in top place when Europeans are asked which characteristics are most important for being a ‘national’ of any one country20. One is 'to feel’ a particular nationality (42%), the other is ‘to be born in’ that country (42%).

20

QE2 People differ in what they think it means to be (NATIONALITY). In your view, among the following, what do you think are the most important characteristics to be (NATIONALITY)? 42



It is interesting to note that respondents identify two types of factors: one factual, the other more emotional, but both are given equal weight when defining national identity. Other important factors include sharing ‘cultural traditions’ (37%), ‘to master the country's language’ (29%) (or, in a multilingual country, one of its official languages), to ‘exercise citizens’ rights, for example voting’ (29%) and ‘to have been brought up in that country’ (25%). Respondents place less emphasis on ‘to have at least one parent of that nationality (13%)’, than on exerting citizen’s rights, for example voting in the country (29%). The religious item, ‘to be a Christian’ (10%) is given far less weight, as is ‘to be active in any association or organisation in the country’ (5%). A wide variety of opinion is represented in the analysis by country of these results. To 'feel' a nationality is the key for respondents from Hungary (68%), Bulgaria (62%), Luxembourg (58%), Greece (56%), Poland (55%), Finland (55%), Lithuania (54%), Latvia (52%), Slovakia (52%) and the Netherlands (51%) but less so for respondents from the UK (29%) or Germany (30%). In other countries, ‘being born in’ that country is considered of greater importance. These include Spain (60%), Malta (60%), Ireland (59%), Portugal (54%), Romania (49%), Cyprus (48%), the Czech Republic (46%), UK (46%) and Italy (43%). In Sweden, respondents are more inclined to mention aspects such as ‘exercising rights’ over factors such as having at least one parent holding that country’s nationality or having been born in that country. Here 61% of respondents select this as the most important characteristic for being a national. Respondents in France (49%) also select ‘exercising rights’ as their top answer. Respondents in countries where religion has played an important role in history are more likely to think that being a Christian is important. This applies to Greece and Cyprus (both 36%) but it is less significant in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg and Sweden (all 2%). Sharing cultural traditions is considered important by respondents in Bulgaria (53%), but less so by interviewees in Hungary and Portugal (21%). Respondents in Cyprus (33%), Greece (29%) and Ireland (25%) think it is significant to have at least one parent of the nationality in question. This is less of an issue for respondents in Latvia and Sweden (both 6%), Denmark (7%) and the Netherlands (8%).

43



In Luxembourg, respondents emphasise mastering at least one of the official languages of the country (51%), but this is far less the case in Spain (6%). Symmetrically, respondents in Estonia (60%), Germany (57%) and Denmark (56%) think that it is really important to master the official language of the country, whereas respondents in Ireland (6%), Greece (6%), and Portugal (5%) are the least to think so. Being raised in a country matters to respondents in Finland (40%) and the Czech Republic (38%), but in France and Sweden (both 15%) they set less store by this. Being active in an organisation is a less significant factor for all countries, but the Netherlands (9%); France and Ireland (both 8%) rate it more highly than most countries.

44



To feel (NATIONALITY)

To share (NATIONALITY) cultural traditions

To master (COUNTRY LANGUAGE)

To exercise citizens' rights, for example voting in (OUR COUNTRY)

To have been brought up in (OUR COUNTRY)

To have at least one (NATIONALITY) parents

To master one of the official languages of (OUR COUNTRY)

To be a Christian

Being active in any association or organization in (OUR COUNTRY)

EU27

To be born in (OUR COUNTRY)

QE2 People differ in what they think it means to be (NATIONALITY ). In your view, among the following, what do you think are the most important characteristics to be (NATIONALITY )? (ROTATE - MAX. 3 ANSWERS)

42%

42%

37%

32%

29%

25%

13%

11%

10%

5%

ES

60%

52%

26%

-

21%

23%

11%

6%

5%

5%

MT

60%

46%

30%

-

25%

37%

13%

18%

29%

5%

IE

59%

32%

41%

6%

30%

31%

25%

-

17%

8%

PT

54%

31%

21%

5%

16%

29%

19%

-

7%

4%

BG

53%

62%

53%

9%

32%

17%

16%

-

24%

1%

RO

49%

38%

40%

20%

19%

21%

13%

-

34%

2%

CY

48%

43%

45%

13%

31%

26%

33%

-

36%

6%

CZ

46%

45%

34%

37%

21%

38%

14%

-

2%

3%

SK

46%

52%

27%

51%

25%

29%

16%

-

14%

4%

UK

46%

29%

38%

19%

26%

32%

15%

-

6%

7%

AT

45%

35%

39%

45%

28%

35%

21%

-

7%

4%

IT

43%

35%

42%

13%

22%

24%

12%

-

13%

7%

FI

42%

55%

40%

-

29%

40%

9%

26%

10%

4%

EL

41%

56%

42%

6%

29%

22%

29%

-

36%

2%

DE

39%

30%

34%

57%

33%

32%

13%

-

6%

2%

SI

37%

41%

32%

51%

26%

22%

14%

-

9%

4%

FR

36%

47%

48%

37%

49%

15%

12%

-

4%

8%

LT

36%

54%

37%

50%

16%

18%

17%

-

13%

5%

PL

36%

55%

34%

27%

19%

21%

11%

-

19%

3%

BE

35%

37%

27%

-

29%

22%

15%

26%

2%

4%

EE

33%

54%

44%

60%

24%

27%

10%

-

3%

6%

HU

30%

68%

21%

23%

30%

24%

22%

-

9%

7%

LV

29%

52%

37%

38%

30%

23%

6%

-

6%

4%

LU

28%

58%

36%

-

33%

22%

9%

51%

2%

3%

NL

26%

51%

40%

48%

40%

25%

8%

-

5%

9%

DK

24%

52%

45%

56%

50%

26%

7%

-

6%

6%

SE

19%

58%

32%

51%

61%

15%

6%

-

2%

5%

Highest percentage in the EU27 Highest percentage per country

Low est percentage in the EU27 Lowest percentage per country

A socio-demographic analysis shows differences in the way younger and older people view national identity. For the younger group aged 15-24 the most important factor is to ‘feel a national’ (43%), whereas for the elderly, it is to be born in the country (45%).

45



The level of education also correlates to a number of differences, with a pattern similar to that seen for age groups. The more educated are most likely to select ‘to feel a national’ as the defining feature (47%), whereas those who finished education early tend to select ‘to be born in a country’ (53%). People who studied for longer are also more likely to believe that exercising rights, for example voting in elections, is an important characteristic of nationality (37%) than the less educated (22%).

2.3.2 Feeling European It appears that at the European level, similar beliefs apply. When asked to say what they think are the most important characteristics of being European, 41% of respondents say ‘to feel European', followed by ‘to be born in Europe’ (39%)21.

QE3 And in terms of being European, among the following, what do you think are the most important characteristics? (MAX. 3 ANSWERS)- % EU

41%

To feel European

39%

To be born in Europe 31%

To share European cultural traditions

29%

To exercise citizens' rights, for example voting in the European elections

27%

To have been brought up in a European country 18%

To master any European language, in addition to your own language 11%

To have at least one European parent 7%

To be a C hristian Being active in any association or organization involving other EU citizens

5%

Other (SPONTANEOUS)

1%

None (SPONTANEOUS) DK 0%

3% 5% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Europeans give slightly less weight to ‘share European cultural traditions (31%)’, ‘to exercise citizens’ rights, for example voting’ (29%) and to having ‘been brought up in a European country’ (27%). 21

QE3 And in terms of being European, among the following, what do you think are the most important characteristics? 46



Mastering a European language in addition to your own (18%), having at least one European parent (11%), being a Christian (7%), and being active in an organisation involving other EU citizens (5%) are considered to be far less important characteristics of ‘being European’. A relatively small percentage of Europeans (5%) gave no answer.

47



QE3 And in terms of being European, among the following, what do you think are the most important characteristics? (MAX. 3 ANSWERS)

EU27

To feel European

To be born in Europe

To share European cultural traditions

41%

39%

31%

To exercise citizens' rights, for example voting in the European elections

To hav e been brought up in a European country

To master any European language, in addition to your own language

To have at least one European parent

To be a Christian

Being active in any association or organization inv olving other EU citizens

29%

27%

18%

11%

7%

5%

BE

44%

40%

30%

34%

29%

30%

14%

4%

4%

BG

57%

38%

48%

34%

20%

9%

12%

12%

2%

CZ

49%

41%

27%

20%

35%

21%

12%

2%

3%

DK

50%

26%

37%

47%

33%

39%

7%

6%

5%

DE

36%

41%

34%

33%

40%

22%

13%

8%

2%

EE

50%

22%

36%

28%

23%

34%

6%

5%

6%

IE

23%

50%

33%

30%

28%

12%

20%

17%

8%

EL

54%

43%

37%

26%

26%

9%

26%

8%

4%

ES

52%

56%

20%

20%

21%

7%

9%

3%

5%

FR

49%

33%

37%

43%

19%

26%

11%

2%

7%

IT

34%

35%

36%

25%

24%

12%

9%

10%

9%

CY

48%

48%

48%

30%

30%

16%

26%

15%

9%

LV

44%

23%

24%

30%

21%

27%

7%

8%

7%

LT

52%

24%

25%

19%

20%

30%

12%

9%

8%

37%

28%

35%

20%

50%

9%

5%

3%

LU

53%

HU

60%

35%

21%

24%

28%

18%

19%

8%

9%

MT

43%

47%

26%

31%

38%

12%

9%

13%

9%

NL

41%

27%

30%

38%

29%

36%

6%

4%

6%

AT

32%

45%

43%

23%

38%

18%

21%

9%

5%

PL

50%

36%

26%

22%

21%

13%

9%

10%

3%

PT

26%

43%

20%

13%

17%

8%

16%

7%

5%

RO

36%

47%

33%

20%

28%

17%

9%

25%

4%

SI

51%

35%

25%

27%

23%

28%

10%

5%

5%

SK

54%

51%

28%

25%

30%

34%

15%

11%

4%

FI

47%

31%

34%

28%

42%

26%

7%

11%

5%

SE

56%

23%

26%

48%

23%

39%

8%

2%

3%

UK

22%

33%

24%

24%

23%

13%

11%

5%

8%

Highest per item in the EU27 Highest percentage per country


48



A country-by-country analysis reveals that respondents in Hungary (60%), Bulgaria (57%), Sweden (56%), Greece (54%), Slovakia (54%) and Luxembourg (53%) are the most likely to think that simply 'feeling European’ is an important characteristic of being European. However people in the UK (22%) and Ireland (23%) are far less likely to agree. Over half of respondents in Spain (56%) and Slovakia (51%) think being born in Europe is an important characteristic. Respondents in Ireland (50%), Malta (47%), Romania (47%), Austria (45%), Portugal (43%) and Germany (41%) also select this as their top answer. However, interviewees in Estonia (22%), Latvia, Sweden (both 23%) and Lithuania (24%) are less convinced of this. Respondents in Greece and Cyprus (26%) are more likely to believe that having at least one parent born in Europe is a major characteristic of being European, but only 6% agree in Estonia and the Netherlands respectively. For respondents in Bulgaria and Cyprus (both 48%), and Austria (43%) it is important to share European cultural traditions, but less so in Spain and Portugal (both 20%). In two countries, Romania (25%) and Ireland (17%), respondents tend to think being a Christian is an important part of being European. Respondents in the Czech Republic, France and Sweden tend not to agree (all 2%). Respondents in Luxembourg believe that mastering a European language in addition to your own (50%) is a key characteristic, but respondents in Spain give far less weight to this (7%). Respondents in Sweden (48%) and Denmark (47%) think that exercising European rights, for example voting in elections, is important, although respondents in Portugal are less likely to agree (13%). To have been brought up in a European country is significant for respondents from Finland (42%) and Germany (40%), but, again, less so in Portugal (17%). Being active in an organisation or organisation involving other EU citizens is not generally considered a key characteristic of being European, but slightly more respondents in Italy, Cyprus, Hungary and Malta (all 9%) think it so. Although a wide variety of opinion is expressed across the European Union, some 14% Portuguese respondents have no opinion to offer on this topic. Turning to the socio-demographic analysis, there are some variations reflecting levels of education. For those who spent longer in education, feeling European is more important (47%) than for the less educated (36%). Where a person is born, however, is less important to the more educated (31%) than to the less educated (44%).

49



When national and European identities are compared, it appears that Europeans select almost the same determining characteristics. Europeans believe that ‘feeling European’ is the most important factor when it comes to being European. Equally, ‘feeling a nationality’ is the primary determinant of national identity too. To be born in a particular country (42%) is regarded as slightly more important than ‘to be born in Europe’ (39%), but the levels are broadly similar. However, some differences are to be noted. As might be expected, ‘sharing national traditions’ (37%) is more important than sharing European traditions (31%). Similarly, mastering the national language (or one of the official languages of the country) is seen as more important for being ‘national’ (29%) than mastering an additional European language is for being European (18%). Respondents thus believe that the characteristics of national and European identity are remarkably similar.

50



3

IMMIGRATION

3.1

European attitudes towards immigration

In this era of globalisation, all Member States of the European Union are experiencing the effects of international migratory flows. The issue of immigration has become a frequently debated topic throughout the enlarged EU. This section analyses Europeans’ attitudes to immigration. In certain instances, comparisons are made with the results of a survey carried out in November 200622 to see whether attitudes have changed, particularly in view of the more challenging economic context. QH1 For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree? - % EU Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

It depends (SPONTANEOUS)

DK

People from other ethnic groups enrich the cultural life of (OUR COUNTRY) EB71 Sp. 2009 % EU27

54%

30%

EB66.3 Nov-Dec 2006 % EU25

54%

30%

12%

4%

11%

5%

The presence of people from other ethnic groups is a cause of insecurity 45%

EB71 Sp. 2009 % EU27

37%

42%

EB66.3 Nov-Dec 2006 % EU25

14%

41%

4%

13%

4%

The presence of people from other ethnic groups increases unemployment in (OUR COUNTRY) 49%

EB71 Sp. 2009 % EU27

36%

46%

EB66.3 Nov-Dec 2006 % EU25

11%

40%

4%

9%

5%

We need immigrants to work in certain sectors of our economy EB71 Sp. 2009 % EU27

48%

EB66.3 Nov-Dec 2006 % EU25

48%

37%

11%

38%

4%

9%

5%

The arrival of immigrants in Europe can be effective in solving the problem of Europe’s ageing population 35%

EB71 Sp. 2009 % EU27

45%

32%

EB66.3 Nov-Dec 2006 % EU25

11%

48%

9%

9% 11%

Immigrants can play an important role in developing greater understanding and tolerance with the rest of the world 50%

EB71 Sp. 2009

30%

12%

8%

(SPLIT A) Immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services EB71 Sp. 2009

22%

51%

11%

16%

(SPLIT B) Legal immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services EB71 Sp. 2009

22

28%

45%

EB66.3: Special Eurobarometer no 273, European Social Reality, November 2006

51

11%

16%


3.1.1


Immigration and society

- More than half of Europeans think that the presence of people from other ethnic groups enriches the cultural life of their country Since November 2006, the percentage of EU citizens believing that people from other ethnic groups enrich the cultural life of their country has remained constant at 54%23.

However, beyond this average, there are great disparities at country level, ranging from two-thirds or more of respondents in the Netherlands (66%), Finland (72%) and Sweden (80%) to fewer than one in three in Cyprus (30%), Austria, (29%), Greece (28%) and just 7% in Malta.

23

QH1. 1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or not to agree. 1: People from other ethnic groups enrich the cultural life of (OUR COUNTRY).

52



There are some noticeable changes in attitude since the end of 2006. For example, while the belief that people from other ethnic groups enrich cultural life is more widespread in countries such as Spain (62%, +19), Bulgaria (41%, +11) and Luxembourg (59%, +8), it has declined in countries such as Austria (29%, 8), Malta (7%, -8) and Belgium (44%, -8). The socio-demographic analysis reveals interesting variations. Contributing to the EU27 average of 54% are more of the youngest age group (59%) and nearly two-thirds (66%) of those educated to age 20 and beyond in contrast to the 47% of people aged 55 or more and just 41% of those who had left school by age 15. There are high levels of support for this point of view among managers (68%) and students (64%) compared with just 48% of the retired and 44% of house persons.

- The feeling that the presence of people from other ethnic groups leads to insecurity has grown: this opinion is now shared by a majority of respondents At the end of 2006, European opinion was evenly divided as to whether the presence of people from other ethnic groups was a cause of insecurity with 42% of those polled tending to agree and 41% holding the opposite view24. In Spring 2009, 45% of those polled now believing the presence of people from other ethnic groups is a cause of insecurity, they were 42% in Autumn 2006. There is large variation at the country level for this statement: In Cyprus (82%) and Greece (78%), a large majority of respondents think that the presence of people from other ethnic groups is a cause of insecurity. High levels of agreement are also recorded in Malta (63%), the UK (57%), Denmark (56%) and the Czech Republic (55%). In total, in 18 Member States the majority agrees with this statement. On the contrary, high levels of disagreement are recorded in Poland (53%), Finland and France (50%). In total, a majority of respondents in 9 Member States do not think that the presence of people from other ethnic groups is a cause of insecurity. The three candidate countries have the same opinion on this issue: all three of them disagree with the statement, with disagreement being stronger in Croatia (54%), than in Turkey (46%) and in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (47%).

24

QH1.3 . For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or not to agree. 3: the presence of people from other ethnic groups is a cause of insecurity.

53



The analysis of the evolutions country-by-country shows noticeable shifts in opinion in Slovenia (47%, +11), Belgium (52%, +12), Cyprus (82%, +14), Hungary (53%, +15) and Greece (78%, +15). The increase is particularly striking in Estonia (48%, +22). The socio-demographic analysis reveals some variations: the feeling that the presence of people from other ethnic groups is a cause of insecurity is more prevalent amongst older and less educated people. Accordingly, the view is held by 50% of respondents aged 55 or more and 54% of those educated to age 15 or less compared to just 40% amongst the youngest age group and those educated to age 20 and beyond. There are also marked differences by occupation. The view that the presence of people from other ethnic groups is a cause of insecurity is held by only 38% of managers and 37% of students compared with 49% of the retired, 48% of manual workers and 47% of house persons.

54



- The idea that immigrants could solve the problem of an ageing population is held by just over a third of Europeans; the majority disagree 35% of respondents believe that the arrival of immigrants in Europe can be effective in solving the problem of an ageing population. This figure shows a small increase from the 32% recorded in late 200625. However, a large proportion of respondents disagree (45%) – a figure three percentage points down on the figure recorded in November 2006.

However this opinion is widespread in Spain (62%), Sweden (55%), Finland (53%) and Denmark (48%). These figures contrast sharply with the 10% observed in Malta, 15% in Bulgaria and 18% in Hungary.

25 QH1.7. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or not to agree. 7: the arrival of immigrants in Europe can be effective in solving the problem of Europe’s ageing population.

55



While a relatively high proportion (45%) of EU respondents educated to age 20 or beyond tend to agree with the view that the arrival of immigrants in Europe can be effective in solving the problem of Europe’s ageing population, the figure falls to just 28% for those who left school at age 15 or before. Similar variations are seen by occupation, with 43% of managers and 39% of the self-employed agreeing with this statement compared with just 32% of the unemployed and 29% of house persons.

QH1.7 For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree. The arrival of immigrants in Europe can be effective in solving the problem of Europe’s ageing population Tend to agree EU27 35% Sex Male 37% Female 34% Age 15-24 36% 25-39 37% 40-54 37% 55 + 32% Education (End of) 1528% 16-19 32% 20+ 45% Still studying 40% Respondent occupation scale Self-employed 39% Managers 43% Other white c ollars 37% Manual workers 33% House persons 29% Unemployed 32% Retired 33% Students 40%

56

Tend to disagree


DK

45%

11%

9%

45% 45%

11% 11%

7% 10%

44% 44% 46% 46%

11% 11% 10% 12%

9% 8% 7% 10%

49% 48% 39% 39%

12% 11% 10% 12%

11% 9% 6% 9%

43% 40% 44% 48% 47% 49% 46% 39%

10% 11% 11% 11% 13% 10% 11% 12%

8% 6% 8% 8% 11% 9% 10% 9%



- Half of Europeans think that immigration can play an important role in developing tolerance A new question was introduced which asked for respondents’ views about the statement that immigrants play an important role in developing greater understanding and tolerance with the rest of the world26. 50% of Europeans agree with this statement, vs. 30% who disagree.

Contributing to the EU average of 50% of respondents who tend to agree with this statement are more than two out of three respondents in Denmark (69%), Finland (77%) and Sweden (77%). This belief also receives strong support in the Netherlands (65%), Luxembourg (63%) and Spain (62%).

26

QH1.8 . For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or not to agree. 8: Immigrants can play an important role in developing greater understanding and tolerance with the rest of the world. .

57



At the other end of the spectrum, fewer than 30% of respondents in Latvia (29%), Bulgaria (26%) and Malta (21%) believe that immigrants play an important role in developing understanding and tolerance with the rest of the world. Important differences exist between the socio-demographic categories: 55% of younger people aged 15 to 24 tend to agree with this statement compared with just 45% of those aged 55 or more. Even larger divergences are seen in terms of occupation and levels of education. 63% of managers and 61% of those educated to age 20 or more hold this view compared with just 40% of house persons and 38% of those educated to age 15 or below.

3.1.2

Immigration and employment

- Almost fifty percent of Europeans consider that the presence of other ethnic groups increases unemployment The impact of immigration on unemployment is a recurrent political issue. In November 2006, 46% of respondents believed that the presence of other ethnic groups in their country increased unemployment27. This average has now increased to 49%. Particularly high figures are recorded in the Czech Republic and Ireland (both 65%) and Malta (69%). However, these figures are dwarfed by the 81% observed in Greece and 90% in Cyprus. It is particularly interesting to look at those countries which have seen a major shift in attitude over the past two and a half years. This is especially marked in the Baltic countries. The Estonian figure has more than doubled from 23% to 50% (+27) and a majority of 50% of Estonian respondents now see the presence of other ethnic groups as a threat to the labour market. Similarly large increases are recorded in Latvia (56%, +21) and Lithuania (59%, +20).

27

QH1.4. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or not to agree. 4: The presence of people from other ethnic groups increases unemployment in (OUR COUNTRY).

58



Question not asked in 2006 in Croatia, Turkey and FYROM.

59



There are also marked differences in accordance with the sociodemographic profile of respondents: 38% of those educated to age 20 or more hold the view that the presence of people from other ethnic groups increases unemployment in their country, compared with 61% of those who left school earliest. Similarly large differences are seen by respondents’ occupation. The view is largely rejected by managers (33%) while 57% of the unemployed, 56% of house persons and 52% of the retired believe that unemployment increases because of the presence of other ethnic groups.

- Despite their feeling that the presence of other ethnic groups can create unemployment, the majority of Europeans believe that immigrants are needed to work in certain sectors of the economy 48% of EU citizens believe that immigrants are needed to work in certain sectors of the economy28, vs. 37% who disagree. This overall figure of 48% has remained unchanged since November 2006. Contributing to this 48% average are figures as high as 82% in Luxembourg, 71% in Sweden, 67% in Finland and 65% in Denmark – once again, Nordic countries feature strongly in these results. At the other end of the scale, figures as low as 10%, 11% and 17% are recorded in Bulgaria, Latvia and Hungary respectively. There are a number of changes by individual country that stand out. Large increases are noted in Slovakia (27%, +12), and Estonia (33%, +10). On the other hand, noticeable falls are observed in Ireland (44%, -13), Belgium (43%, 10), and Latvia (11%, -9). Once again, there is a marked difference in attitudes to this issue depending the respondents’ levels of education. 58% of the most educated segment of the population tend to agree with this statement compared with just 40% of those who left school aged 15 or before. Comparable variations are seen by occupation. 59% of managers believe that immigrant labour is needed in certain sectors of the economy compared with just 40% of the unemployed, 41% of house persons and 44% of manual workers.

28

QH1.6 For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or not to agree. 6: We need immigrants to work in certain sectors of our economy.

60


3.2


Immigrants, taxes and social benefits

The question as to whether immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services is then raised in this survey and the perceived distinction between ‘immigrants’ and ‘legal immigrants’ is tested in a split ballot question29, in order to see whether the issue of the ‘legality’ of immigrants was key in respondents’ answers.

QH1. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree. - % EU

Tend to agree

(SPLIT A) Immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services

(SPLIT B) Legal immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services


22%

28%

11%

11%

Tend to disagree

51%

45%

DK

16%

16%

When half of the sample is asked whether legal immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services, 45% disagree with the statement, vs. 28% who agree with it (SPLIT B)30. The country-by-country analysis reveals high figures for ‘tend to disagree’ in Belgium (63%), France (64%) and Malta (70%). These figures contrast sharply with the 26% recorded in Sweden, 28% in Portugal and 29% in both Poland and Romania.

29

Split A: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or not to agree. Immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services. Split B: Legal immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services

61



A socio-demographic analysis of the respondents of Split B reveals some interesting differences. 50% of the least educated disagree with the statement ‘legal immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services’ compared to just 40% of those with higher education (20 or beyond). Similar variations in opinion are noted by occupation with this negative view being held by 48% of manual workers and house persons and 47% of the retired compared with 38% of students and 39% of managers.

62



When the other half of the sample – Split A – is asked whether immigrants (as opposed to legal immigrants) contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services, the percentage of EU respondents disagreeing with the statement increases noticeably from 45% to 51% perhaps giving an indication that the word ‘immigrant’ on its own has connotations of illegality. 22% of respondents agree with the statement. Contributing to this 51% EU average are figures of two-thirds or more of respondents in Malta (75%), Greece (70%) and both Finland and France (66%). Markedly lower figures are seen in Romania (30%) and Portugal (27%). A detailed analysis of the results in four countries reveals substantial variations in attitudes when using the term ‘immigrants’ (Split A) instead of ‘legal immigrants’ (Split B): there are more negative associations of the term ‘immigrant’ than ‘legal immigrant’. Indeed, in these four countries there is a substantial difference in the proportion of respondents who tend to disagree that ‘immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services’ and those who disagree with the modified statement on ‘legal immigrants’. The harsher view taken when the word ‘immigrant’ is used on its own with its apparently inherent implication of illegality is particularly strong in Sweden (‘legal immigrant’ 26%, ’immigrant’ 41%), Denmark (31% - 50%), the Netherlands (36% - 51%) and Finland (50% 66%). However, although the opinion is more strongly held when the word ‘immigrant’ is used on its own, a majority of respondents disagree with the statement that immigrants contribute more in taxes than they benefit from health and welfare services.

63


4

Pensions

4.1

Expectations for pensions


- The majority of Europeans worry about the future of their pensions At a time when Europe is facing a long-term economic and financial crisis, many Europeans are concerned over the future security of their pension funds. In this climate the survey now explores how Europeans perceive their current pension arrangements and what are the options for guaranteeing the future security of their pension.

Europeans tend not to be confident about the future of their pensions: although 39% say they do feel confident, a majority (57%) say they are not confident in the future of their pension31. Only 7% of Europeans feel ‘very confident’, and 32% are simply ‘somewhat confident’. Since this question was last posed in November 200632 - before the economic and financial crisis - Europeans have become less optimistic about the future of their pensions. The number of Europeans confident about the future of their pensions has fallen from 42% to 39% (-3 points). The proportion who are not confident about their pension has risen from 52% to 57% (+5 points), while those who have no opinion fell from 6% to 4% (-2 points).

31 32

QJ3 At the moment, when you think of the future of your pension, would you say that you are…? Special Eurobarometer 273: European Social reality

64



Looking at the country results, we note that the respondents the most positive about their pensions are to be found in Denmark (73%), followed by respondents from Finland (69%) and the Netherlands (66%). Confidence is regarding the future of pensions is lowest in Latvia (16%), Bulgaria (17%/) In terms of trends, Germany is rather unusual in recording rising confidence in pensions since November 2006, from 25% to 41% (+16 points). However, almost everywhere else there is a major decline in confidence. There are notable falls in the newer Member States where the crisis has hit hard, and especially in the three Baltic countries, Latvia from 42% to 16% (-26 points), Lithuania from 43% to 23% (-20 points), and Estonia from 45% to 26% (-19 points). A significant decline in confidence about the future of pensions is also recorded in Slovakia (29%, -12). Ireland, down from 56% to 32% (-24 points) and the UK, down from 50% to 38% (-12 points) have also seen considerable declines in confidence, perhaps related to the falling property prices in those two countries.

65



QJ3 At the moment, when you think of the future of your pension, would you say that you are…? % EU Confident

Not confident

DK

EU27 Sex Male

39%

57%

4%

41%

55%

4%

Female

36%

60%

4%

32% 29% 31% 53%

58% 67% 67% 43%

10% 4% 2% 4%

37% 47% 34% 30% 34% 19% 55% 35%

61% 52% 63% 67% 61% 77% 41% 52%

2% 1% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 13%

20% 31% 47%

76% 66% 49%

4% 3% 4%

Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Respondent occupation scale Self-employed Managers Other w hite collars Manual w orkers House persons Unemployed Retired Students Difficulties paying bills Most of the time From time to time Almost never

A socio-demographic breakdown reveals that men are more confident of the future for pensions (41%) than women (36%). However this is in line with men’s tendency to be more positive in their opinion of many financial matters. Within the different age groups the 55+ group are more confident (53%) than younger people (32%), who are more likely than any other age group to have an opinion in this regard. The actives (aged 25 to 39 and 40 to 54) are the most worried. We also see variations by occupational category. Managers (47%) are far more confident than the unemployed (19%), though this may reflect their relative comfort and reliance on a private pension. Finally, respondents’ financial situation has a major influence on their answer to this question, so we see that those who often ‘have difficulty paying their bills’ have far less confidence in pensions (20%) than those who are financially more secure (47%).

66


4.2


Management of pension systems

The next question looks at which options are more acceptable to Europeans to address the issue of pensions. As respondents’ opinions on the best solution to the pension’s crisis might depend on their current working status, this question is asked in two parts. The first part of the question is directed to those who are working. It invites them to choose how they would prefer to guarantee the future of their pension. The second part is identical, except it is directed to those who are not currently working, and it asks them to comment on how those who are working should adapt, in order to ensure the future of pensions. - Working Europeans would rather increase pension contributions than work for longer, or receive smaller pensions In the question which is directed to those who are working, respondents are asked to choose from a list of ways to secure the pension system. The largest proportion of respondents think ‘increasing social security contributions’ is the most attractive option33 (30%). A further 21% prefer to ‘work and contribute longer’, while 12% choose to ‘maintain current retirement age and accept that you will receive less’. Some 16% offer a spontaneous answer, a combination of 'all three options'. Finally, for 14% of respondents, none of these options are acceptable. 7% of Europeans have not formed an opinion.

QJ4a If you had to choose from the following possibilities aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system in (OUR COUNTRY), which one would be most acceptable for you? - % respondents ''currently working'' EU EB66.3 November 2006

EB71 Spring 2009

Maintain the retirement age and increase your social security contributions

30% 32% 21% 22%

Work and contribute for longer Maintain the current retirement age and accept that you w ill receive less

12% 12%

A combination of all three (SPONTANEOUS)

6%

16%

14%

None of these (SPONTANEOUS)

DK 0%

20%

7% 8% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

33 QJ4a If you had to choose from the following possibilities aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system in (OUR COUNTRY), which one would be most acceptable for you?

67



There are few changes in the responses since the question was asked at the end of 2006. There is an increase in the spontaneous suggestion of a ‘combination of all three approaches’ to help guarantee the pension system from 6% to 16% (+10 points). The other items are relatively stable.

QJ4a If you had to choose from the following possibilities aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system in (OUR COUNTRY), which one would be most acceptable for you? - % respondents ''currently working'' EU Maintain the retirement age and increase your social security contributions

Work and contribute for longer


Maintain the current retirement age and accept that you will receive less


DK

EU27

30%

21%

16%

12%

14%

7%

BE

35%

26%

17%

12%

8%

2%

BG

33%

27%

13%

5%

14%

8%

CZ

35%

15%

11%

15%

19%

5%

DK

40%

31%

11%

14%

2%

2%

DE

19%

11%

24%

13%

26%

7%

EE

36%

23%

7%

21%

9%

4%

IE

20%

23%

30%

10%

7%

10%

EL

30%

5%

24%

5%

36%

0%

ES

39%

17%

15%

10%

11%

8%

FR

31%

25%

7%

14%

18%

5%

IT

30%

22%

22%

8%

11%

7%

CY

54%

16%

10%

9%

8%

3%

LV

34%

18%

4%

14%

23%

7%

LT

38%

16%

3%

14%

24%

5%

LU

37%

19%

14%

17%

8%

5%

HU

33%

16%

21%

11%

11%

8%

MT

35%

25%

12%

5%

15%

8%

NL

32%

26%

6%

23%

10%

3%

AT

31%

26%

18%

13%

9%

3%

PL

24%

29%

7%

10%

15%

15%

PT

9%

24%

15%

5%

23%

24%

RO

26%

16%

22%

12%

10%

14%

SI

26%

10%

13%

21%

24%

6%

SK

39%

16%

9%

16%

11%

9%

FI

51%

32%

6%

7%

3%

1%

SE

46%

22%

10%

13%

6%

3%

UK

35%

30%

18%

11%

3%

3%

MK

32%

35%

11%

8%

6%

8%

HR

34%

17%

15%

9%

16%

9%

TR

31%

24%

12%

9%

14%

10%

Highest percentage per item in the EU27

Lowest percentage per item in the UE27



68



A country-by-country analysis of the results reveals some interesting variations in opinion. In Cyprus, 54% of respondents would choose to maintain retirement age and increase their social security contributions. This is in Portugal that this option is the least popular (9%). In Finland (32%) working and contributing longer is the more popular choice, but in Greece fewest respondents favour this option (5%). In countries such as the Netherlands (23%), Estonia and Slovenia (both 21%) respondents are more likely to choose to ‘maintain retirement age and accept they will receive less’. In others, such as Bulgaria, Greece, Malta and Portugal, the option of receiving smaller pensions is far from attractive (all 5%). The spontaneous answer, a ‘combination of all three’ option, is most likely to be given in Ireland (30%) and Germany (24%). In Greece, a significant proportion (36%) of respondents answered ‘none of these options’. Since November 2006, there have been large declines in support for ‘maintaining retirement age and increasing contributions’ in a number of countries; in Ireland this has fallen from 35% to 20% (-15 points), in Portugal from 23% to 9% (-14 points), in Denmark from 54% to 40% (-14 points), and in Germany from 33% to 19% (-14 points).

69

A combination of all three (SPONT.)

Maintain the current retirement age and accept that you will receive less

None of these (SPONT.)

DK

EU27 30% Age 15-24 30% 25-39 30% 40-54 29% 55 + 33% Respondent occupation scale Self-employed 25% Managers 33% Other w hite collars 32% Manual w orkers 30%


Maintain the retirement age and increase your social security contributions

QJ4a If you had to choose from the following possibilities aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system in (OUR COUNTRY ), which one would be most acceptable for you? - % respondents ''currently working'' EU

21%

16%

12%

14%

7%

24% 22% 20% 22%

13% 16% 17% 17%

11% 11% 12% 10%

11% 14% 16% 11%

11% 7% 6% 7%

22% 24% 21% 20%

18% 14% 17% 15%

12% 13% 10% 12%

16% 11% 14% 15%

7% 5% 6% 8%


The

socio-demographic


breakdown

of

results

reveals

no

major

differences, though self-employed people are less likely to want to ‘maintain retirement age but increase contributions’ (25%) than managers (33%). Older people, who are closer to retirement age and, therefore, may feel the need for greater action, are more inclined to say 'all three approaches combined' (17%) than younger people (13%).

70


4.3


Management of pension systems (asked of those not working)

- Non-working respondents think contributions should increase to protect pensions -

QJ5a According to you, which of the following possibilities aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system in (OUR COUNTRY), would be most acceptable for someone working? - % respondents ''not currently working'' EU EB66.3 November 2006

EB71 Spring 2009

Maintain the retirement age and increase social security contributions paid by the workers

30% 30% 23% 24%

Work and contribute for longer Maintain the current retirement age and accept that one w ill receive less A combination of all three (SPONTANEOUS)

10% 10% 6%

13% 12% 15%

None of these (SPONTANEOUS) DK 0%

12% 15% 10%

20%

30%

40%

The analysis of the results for the respondents who are not working reveals a pattern similar to the answers given by working people; 30% prefer to ‘maintain retirement age and increase contributions’ paid by workers, 23% choose ‘work and contribute for longer’, while 10% say they would rather ‘maintain current retirement age and accept they will receive less’34. 13% give a spontaneous answer, a ‘combination of all three options’. A further 12% say ‘none of these’ and 12% ‘don't know’. As with the answers given by working people, there are very few changes in the trends since November 2006, when respondents who were not working last offered their thoughts on solutions to the pensions crisis. The spontaneous response of ‘a combination of all three approaches’ has increased from 6% to 13% (+7 points), which is perhaps indicative of respondents’ increasing concern over pensions. Other items are quite stable since late 2006.

34 QJ5a According to you, which of the following possibilities aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system in (OUR COUNTRY), would be most acceptable for someone working?

71

50%



QJ5a According to you, which of the following possibilities aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system in (OUR COUNTRY), would be most acceptable for someone working? - % only asked to respondents ''not currently working'' Maintain the retirement age and increase social security contributions paid by the workers



Maintain the current retirement age and accept that one will receive less


DK

30%

23%

13%

10%

12%

12%

BE

28%

31%

18%

10%

8%

5%

BG

26%

24%

13%

4%

9%

24% 8%

EU27

CZ

38%

13%

12%

12%

17%

DK

37%

29%

9%

15%

3%

7%

DE

32%

18%

12%

15%

13%

10%

EE

35%

15%

7%

19%

8%

16%

IE

18%

20%

22%

9%

6%

25%

EL

33%

5%

18%

6%

33%

5%

ES

39%

17%

11%

8%

12%

13%

FR

29%

33%

8%

10%

14%

6%

IT

18%

23%

24%

8%

16%

11%

CY

45%

19%

7%

11%

8%

10%

LV

37%

19%

4%

9%

20%

11%

LT

31%

17%

2%

13%

21%

16%

LU

34%

21%

9%

17%

7%

12%

HU

34%

15%

16%

11%

13%

11%

MT

26%

32%

12%

4%

9%

17%

NL

40%

24%

8%

21%

4%

3%

AT

20%

21%

25%

12%

14%

8%

PL

22%

23%

9%

11%

13%

22%

PT

10%

22%

8%

5%

21%

34%

RO

23%

23%

14%

8%

5%

27%

SI

25%

11%

16%

16%

23%

9%

SK

40%

11%

14%

15%

9%

11%

FI

46%

34%

3%

6%

6%

5%

SE

40%

26%

7%

11%

4%

12%

UK

33%

29%

17%

9%

4%

8%

MK

24%

32%

11%

7%

9%

17%

HR

38%

11%

12%

9%

12%

18%

TR

23%

17%

8%

8%

16%

28%

Highest percentage per item in the EU27 Highest percentage per country


The analysis by country shows a similar pattern to that for working people. For instance, respondents in Finland prefer to ‘maintain retirement age but pay more’ (46%), whereas this is least popular with respondents in Portugal (10%). The

socio-demographic

analysis

of

the

non-working

respondents’

answers shows few differences except that men (26%) and younger people (27%) are more inclined to work for longer than women (21%) and older people (22%).

72



5

Employment and social issues - today

5.1

Care of the elderly - A large minority of Europeans have paid, currently pay, or expect to pay in the future for the care of their parents; a large increase since May-June 2007 is recorded -

The next question looks at the number of EU citizens who have paid, are currently paying or expect to pay for professional homecare or care in an institution for their parents35. As multiple answers are possible to this question, i.e. a respondent could be currently paying and have already paid in the past, the analysis is based on the combined figure which shows the proportion of respondents for whom the care of parents is already or will become a financial commitment (Total Yes, 37% at EU level).

QI1 Thinking now about payment for care. Have you already had to pay, are you currently paying, or do you expect one day that you will pay for professional home care or care in an institution for either of your parents? % EU EB67.3 May-June 2007 Yes, you are expecting to pay in the future

24% 12%

9%

Yes, you have already paid in the past

5%

Yes, you are currently paying

2%

DK

Yes

EB71 Spring 2009

7%

6% 6%

37% 20%

57%

No, none of these

75%

35

Thinking now about payment for care. Have you already had to pay, are you currently paying, or do you expect one day that you will pay for professional home care or care in an institution for either of your parents? Please tell me all answers that apply.

73



More than a third (37%) of respondents say that they have such a commitment. Figures of 46% are recorded in Malta and Cyprus, 47% in Italy and 49% in Luxembourg. The figures are particularly high in Belgium (53%) and France (57%). At the other end of the scale, fewer than a quarter of respondents in Poland (24%), Lithuania (22%), Bulgaria (19%) and Latvia (13%) are in this situation.

A major finding is the substantial and rapid increase since May-June 200736 in respondents who have been, are, or believe they will find themselves in this situation.

In just two years, the overall EU average has

risen sharply from 20% to 37%. In eight countries, the increase exceeds 20 percentage points: Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria and Romania. The most striking increases are noted in France (57%, +27 points), Luxembourg (49%, +27) and Malta (46%, +28). This drastic change in a period of just two years is unusual and deserves further analysis.

36

Special Eurobarometer 283: Health and long term care in the European Union

74



Looking at the results more carefully, we notice that the item that has increased the most is ‘yes, you are expecting to pay in the future’, which has virtually doubled from 12% to the current 24%. Indeed, the most significant increases are due to this item: in France, the +27 point increase results from a +23 increase in the item on future expectations. The same phenomenon is observed in Luxembourg (+27, and +25 of those expecting to pay in the future), and Malta (+28, +18). The crisis has clearly had a direct impact, bringing worries and doubts. In the light of the current economic problems, respondents’ expectations that they will have to pay are much more widespread.

75



Question not asked in 2007 in FYROM and in CY(tcc)

76



Few differences can be noted in accordance with the socio-demographic profile of the respondents. Just a third (34%) of people educated to age 15 or below believe this situation will arise compared with 44% of those educated to age 20 or beyond. A similarly wide variation is seen by occupation, with 47% of managers anticipating that this will happen compared with 36% of house persons, 30% of the unemployed and 28% of students. It seems that the wealthier categories are more likely to answer ‘yes’ to this question. However, an analysis of the criteria regarding people’s difficulty in paying their monthly bills nuances this conclusion: there are, indeed, few differences. 37% of those who have difficulty in paying their bills most of the time have already, are currently or expect to pay for the care of their parents, compared to 40% of those who have difficulties from time to time, and 36% of those who have almost never problems in this respect.

77


5.2


Expectation of help and long-term care in the future - Just over half of Europeans think that they would be provided with the appropriate care in the future if needed, a dramatic drop since May-June 2007 -

More than half (53%) of respondents believe they would be provided with the appropriate help and long-term care in the future if they were to need it37. Conversely, more than a third (35%) think that this will not be the case.

However, in May-June 2007, nearly three-quarters (71%) of

respondents believed these benefits would be provided and this fall to 53% represents a substantial shift in opinion. Although this might be attributed to the current

economic

crisis,

a

reasonable

alternative

scenario

may

be

that

respondents are being realistic about the ability or willingness of either family or the state to pay for open-ended benefits of this nature.

37 QI2. In the future do you think that you would be provided with the appropriate help and long-term care if you were to need it?

78



There are large variations by country on this issue. Particularly high expectations are noted amongst respondents in Luxembourg (83%), Belgium (74%), Sweden (73%) and Finland (72%). On the other hand, only a minority of respondents are confident about the way they would be taken care of, if required, in Hungary (25%), Bulgaria (27%), Greece (43%) and Latvia (45%). Although not forming a minority, few proportions of respondents in Ireland (37%), Romania (40%), Greece (43%), Poland (44%) and Portugal (45%) are confident about the way they would be taken care of. Broadly speaking, there is a geographical division between the wealthier countries of Northern Europe and the countries in Eastern Europe that are struggling more from an economic point of view.

79



What is highly significant is the broad change in expectations with regard to this issue since May-June 2007. Interestingly, this overall broad shift is not reflected to the same extent in the data from all countries. While the figures from Luxembourg remain unchanged and those in Finland show a relatively small decrease from 78% to 72%, the figures in Belgium show a fall from 88% to 74%. However, these falls are insignificant compared with declines such as the 76% to 25% seen in Hungary, 71% to 27% in Bulgaria, 61% to 37% in Ireland and 89% to 43% in Greece. This may be a side-effect of the economic crisis where Europeans now realise that nothing financial can be taken for granted and that there is no guarantee that either personal or state finances will be robust enough to take care of them in the future. In the candidate countries, particularly large changes in attitude were recorded in Croatia and Turkey, with a fall of 30 percentage points over a period of just two years.

80



Question not asked in 2007 in FYROM and in CY(tcc).

81



While there are substantial variations between countries, differences are relatively minor when analysed from a socio-demographic point of view. The most noticeable variations relate to the standard of living.

57% of those

people who said that they almost never had difficulties in paying their bills believe that they would be provided with the appropriate help and long-term care if necessary compared with just 39% of those who said they had difficulties in paying their bills most of the time.

82


5.3


The national welfare system today - Europeans have doubts about their national welfare systems –

In the next part, respondents are asked to evaluate their national welfare system. Three criteria are used for doing such an evaluation: the quality of the welfare system in terms of wideness of the coverage; the comparison with the situation in other countries and the perceived expensiveness of the national welfare system for the society. By examining these three parameters, we will achieve a comprehensive picture of how Europeans perceive their national welfare system.

5.3.1 Provides wide enough coverage In order to gauge perceptions of the coverage of national welfare systems, respondents were invited in the next question to comment on whether they feel the coverage is sufficient. Later in the report we turn our attention to respondents’ view of the future and invite them to imagine the status of welfare systems at a future date. The results of both questions allow direct comparison and an evaluation of the levels of optimism for the future. When asked to rate the statement that their own country's social welfare system 'provides wide enough coverage' 48% of Europeans think 'it applies fairly well'38. However, only slightly fewer (42%) believe it 'applies fairly badly'. Some 5% think neither answer applies, and further 5% ‘don’t know’.

38 QJ1a.1 For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Your social welfare system … Provides wide enough coverage

83



Since November 2006, when this question was last posed, there has been a fall in number of Europeans who think the statement that their social welfare system 'provides wide enough coverage' applies fairly well, from 51% to 48% (-3 points). There has been a rise in those who think it ‘applies fairly badly’ from 38% to 42% (+4 points). Levels of respondents answering 'neither' remain stable at 5%, while 'don't know' responses fell from 6% to 5% (-1 point). Generally speaking, Europeans are feeling somewhat less well protected in these difficult economic times.

84



Respondents in some of the newer Member States of the European Union, including Latvia (88%), Bulgaria (67%), Lithuania (68%), Romania (63%), Slovakia (62%) and Estonia (67%) don’t think that their welfare system ‘provides wide enough coverage’. Among the older Member States on the other hand, respondents in Greece have the same doubts about their national welfare system (81%), compared to just 11% of respondents in Luxembourg and 19% in the Netherlands.

85



A socio-demographic analysis shows that men and managers (56%) are more likely (51%) to think their social welfare system provides wide enough coverage, while women (46%) and unemployed (42%) are less so. As this question is greatly affected by the respondents’ own financial situation, it is not surprising to see that only 33% of those that struggle with paying their bills think the system provides sufficient coverage. This can be compared to a majority (54%) among those with fewer financial troubles. QJ1a.1 For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Your social welfare system… - % EU Provides wide enough coverage

48%

42%

Neither (SPONTANEOUS) 5%

Male

51%

40%

5%

4%

Female

46%

43%

5%

6%

15-

46%

42%

6%

6%

16-19

45%

45%

5%

5%

20+

54%

39%

4%

3%

Still studying

51%

35%

5%

9%

Self-employed

45%

47%

5%

3%

Managers

56%

37%

4%

3%

Other white collars

48%

42%

5%

5%

Manual workers

48%

43%

5%

4%

House persons

50%

36%

6%

8%

Unemployed

42%

48%

5%

5%

Retired

48%

43%

4%

5%

Students

51%

35%

5%

9%

Applies fairly well Applies fairly badly EU27

DK 5%

Sex

Education (End of)

Respondent occupation scale

Difficulties paying bills Most of the time

33%

54%

6%

7%

From time to time

43%

46%

6%

5%

Almost never

54%

38%

4%

4%

Low (1-4)

40%

50%

5%

5%

Medium (5-6)

51%

40%

5%

4%

High (7-10)

54%

38%

4%

4%

Self-positioning on the social ladder

Respondents’ self-reported position on the social scale also affects their view of the social system in their country. Those who place themselves ‘low’ on the scale are more likely to think the social system is inadequate (50%) than those who place themselves high on the social scale (38%).

86



5.3.2 Could serve as a model for other countries Respondents were also asked whether they believed their own national system could serve as a model for other countries. European responses are fairly evenly divided between those who think their national welfare system could serve as a model for other countries (46%) and those who think the statement 'applies fairly badly' (40%)39. Some 6% think ‘neither’ and 8% have no view.

Overall, Europeans’ belief that their national social welfare system could act as a model for other countries has increased slightly since November 2006, from 42% to 46% (+4 points). Compared to November 2006, it appears that Europeans are less confident in their own social system40, but are more inclined to think their system could serve as a model for other countries. There is an apparent discrepancy here, which may be related to the economic climate rather than the efficiency of the welfare system, as the respondents see the welfare system struggling to meet their country’s current needs.

39 QJ1a.2 For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Your social welfare system … Could serve as a model for other countries 40 Part 5.3.1: The social welfare system provides wide enough coverage.

87



In a number of Member States, respondents are much less likely to believe their social welfare system 'could serve as a model for other countries'. Respondents in Latvia (2%), Bulgaria (3%), Lithuania (7%), Romania (8%) and Estonia (10%) are the most sceptical.

On the other hand, more than 75% of the respondents in in France (81%), and Denmark (79%) and Luxembourg believe that their system could serve as a model to other countries However, there are some interesting evolutions in the country-by-country analysis. Spain has seen an increase in the proportion of people who think their system could serve as a model from 47% to 64% (+17 points), Germany likewise from 40% to 62% (+22 points).

88



In Portugal, the majority of respondents (64%) do not believe their system could serve as a model. However, this number has fallen from 81% (-17 points) since November 2006, which may suggest they are finding it better than in November 2006. Respondents in Bulgaria appear to disapprove of their system more than in November 2006. The proportion of respondents who believe their system is not a good model for other countries has increased from 27% to 60% (+33 points). The socio-demographic breakdown reveals that those people who have difficulty paying their bills are less likely to consider that their system could serve as a model to other countries (33% think that their social welfare system could serve as a model for other countries) than those who are financially more comfortable (52%).

89



5.3.3 Is too expensive for the country’s society More Europeans (54%) consider their national social welfare system 'too expensive' than not (29%)41. Some 7% think it neither ‘too expensive’ nor ‘not too expensive’, and 10% have no opinion on this matter.

Since November 2006, this question has remained very stable: the proportions of Europeans who believe their social welfare system is 'too expensive' have changed very little, from 53% to 54% (+1 point). The numbers of those who do not perceive their system as too costly have also remained very similar, rising only very slightly from 28% to 29% (+1 point). These are very minor variations given the scale of the global economic crisis which has affected the European Union in recent months. There is considerable variation between countries in the response to this question. The Nordic countries are less concerned that the social welfare system is 'too expensive'; only relatively small proportions of respondents in Finland (34%), Denmark and Sweden (both 36%), and also in Luxembourg (26%) tend to think that their system is too expensive.

41 QJ1a.3 For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Your social welfare system … Is too expensive for the (NATIONALITY) society

90



At the other end of the spectrum, Hungary (77%) and Greece (74%) contain the greatest proportion of respondents that believe the welfare system is too costly. We also see some marked variations in the country-by-country trend analysis since November 2006. In particular, some of the most recent Member States record a large increase in numbers who believe the system is too expensive; this is so in Estonia, up from 30% to 58% (+28 points), Bulgaria, up from 24% to 49% (+25 points), Slovenia, up from 49% to 64% (+15 points) and Romania, 29% to 42% (+13 points). Very few differences are revealed by the socio-demographic analysis, and most groups broadly agree that the social welfare system is too expensive in their country.

91


5.4


The job market today in the EU

– Europeans are very concerned about unemployment 5.4.1 Difficulty of finding a good job We will now analyse whether respondents consider the job market difficult. This question is useful in its own right and as a benchmark for comparison with future projections. In a later part of the report we ask respondents to imagine job prospects in the future. When asked if they think ‘finding a good job is difficult, even with high qualifications'42, 80% of Europeans agree that it is, and just 17% disagree.

Opinions about employment are very much in line with those seen in other areas of the survey. Respondents are very concerned about levels of unemployment and the percentage of people who say they ‘totally agree’ (42%) that it is difficult to find a good job reflect this concern. The countries where it is perceived to be difficult to find a good job even with high qualifications include Portugal (92%), Ireland, Greece, Hungary and Romania (all 91%). Respondents in the Netherlands (56% agree) and Austria (59%) are least likely to agree. 42 QJ7.1 Could you please tell me whether you totally agree, tend to agree, tend to disagree or totally disagree with each of the following statements? It is difficult to find a good job in (OUR COUNTRY) even with high qualifications

92


A

socio-demographic


analysis

shows

only

small

differences

in

the

proportions of respondents who believe it hard to find a job. In all categories, a large majority agree that it is difficult to find a good job in their country even with high qualifications.

93



5.4.2 Necessity of changing jobs When asked if it is necessary to change jobs every few years to stay in employment, European opinion is divided43. Some 47% of Europeans disagree, while 45% agree.

Looking at the breakdown of responses by country, respondents in Portugal (66%), Romania (56%) and France (55%) are the most likely to agree that changing jobs frequently is necessary to stay in employment. In other countries, particularly Estonia (24%) and the Netherlands (26%), agreement is much more limited.

A few differences emerge in the socio-demographic analysis. Managers are less likely to agree that it is necessary to change jobs to stay in employment (38%) than the unemployed (51%), for whom it is the majority view. The respondents’ financial situation has a very significant influence on their opinion. Those who find it difficult to pay their bills are more inclined to think it necessary to change jobs every few years to stay in employment (52%) than those who are more financially comfortable (42%).

43 QJ7.3 Could you please tell me whether you totally agree, tend to agree, tend to disagree or totally disagree with each of the following statements? Changing jobs every few years is necessary to stay in employment

94


6


The ability to plan for the future

- Only a minority of Europeans can plan for the long-term future The next question aims to assess Europeans’ confidence and their ability to plan for their future. Many Europeans say they are planning only in the short-term, with 35% say they ‘live day by day’44. Another 29% ‘know what they will be doing in 6 months’, while 31% have a long-term perspective what they will be doing in 1 or 2 years.

QJ6 Which of the following statements best reflects your household situation? - % EU

Your current situation does not allow you to make any plan for the future. You live day by day

35%

You have a long-term perspective of what your household w ill be during in the next 1 or 2 years

31%

You know what you w ill be doing in the next six months

Other

29%

1%

DK 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

A country-by-country analysis of the results shows that a majority of respondents in some countries tend to be ‘living day to day’; interviewees in Latvia (63%) and Portugal (60%) in particular agree with this statement. The respondents least likely to live day-to-day are to be found in Sweden (13%), Finland and Denmark (both 18%), Austria, Luxembourg and the Netherlands (16%) and Germany (19%). The respondents with the greatest knowledge of their long-term prospects are those in Germany (56%) and Finland (50%). The least long-term financial vision is found in Latvia (9%).

44

QJ6 Which of the following statements best reflects your household situation?

95



QJ6 Which of the following statements best reflects your household situation? Y ou have a long-term Y our current situation perspective of what does not allow you to your household will be make any plan for the future. Y ou live day by during in the next 1 or 2 years day

Y ou know what you will be doing in the next six months

Other

DK

EU27

35%

31%

29%

1%

4%

BE

28%

38%

28%

4%

2%

BG

51%

11%

34%

0%

4%

CZ

29%

30%

39%

0%

2%

DK

18%

49%

31%

1%

1%

DE

19%

56%

23%

0%

2%

EE

46%

20%

31%

0%

3%

IE

37%

27%

29%

1%

6%

EL

47%

22%

30%

0%

1%

ES

47%

24%

26%

1%

2%

FR

36%

29%

31%

1%

3%

IT

35%

26%

30%

2%

7%

CY

43%

27%

28%

0%

2%

9%

26%

0%

2%

LV

63%

LT

54%

13%

30%

1%

2%

LU

16%

45%

32%

2%

5%

HU

53%

18%

25%

1%

3%

MT

45%

23%

23%

0%

9%

NL

16%

47%

31%

3%

3%

AT

16%

43%

35%

2%

4%

PL

41%

14%

33%

1%

11%

PT

60%

14%

20%

0%

6%

RO

52%

11%

30%

1%

6%

SI

28%

32%

30%

8%

2%

SK

34%

26%

35%

2%

3%

FI

18%

50%

30%

2%

0%

SE

13%

45%

36%

4%

2%

UK

39%

30%

25%

2%

4%

CY (tcc)

48%

18%

18%

3%

13%

MK

50%

14%

30%

1%

5%

HR

43%

20%

29%

2%

6%

TR

64%

8%

19%

1%

8%

Highest percentage per item in the EU27

Lowest percentage per item in the EU



96



QJ6 Which of the following statements best reflects your household situation? - % EU Y our current situation does not allow you to make any plan for the future. Y ou live day by day EU27 Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Education (End of) 1516-19 20+ Still studying Respondent occupation scale Self-employed Managers Other w hite collars Manual w orkers House persons Unemployed Retired Students Difficulties paying bills Most of the time From time to time Almost never Satis. life you lead Satisfied Not satisfied

Y ou have a long-term Y ou know what you perspective of what your will be doing in the Other household will be during next six months in the next 1 or 2 years

DK

35%

31%

29%

1%

4%

31% 37% 36% 35%

29% 29% 33% 33%

30% 30% 28% 27%

2% 1% 1% 1%

8% 3% 2% 4%

47% 39% 23% 22%

23% 29% 42% 35%

24% 28% 32% 31%

2% 1% 1% 2%

4% 3% 2% 10%

26% 15% 27% 38% 40% 66% 38% 22%

39% 52% 32% 28% 30% 11% 30% 35%

31% 30% 37% 30% 24% 18% 27% 31%

1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%

3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 10%

72% 46% 23%

8% 18% 43%

16% 31% 30%

1% 1% 1%

3% 4% 3%

28% 61%

37% 12%

30% 22%

1% 1%

4% 4%

A socio-demographic breakdown of the results reveals surprisingly little variation between the age groups; people aged 25-39 are only slightly less likely to make plans for the future than both older and younger people. However, important differences exist according to the level of education and occupation: those who left education age 15 or below (47%), and the unemployed (66%) are far more likely to agree they cannot make plans for the future, and that they live from day to day. Those still studying are much less likely to agree they 'live day to day' (22%), while managers are the most able to plan ahead, 52% of them saying they are able to make long-term arrangements. The difference between those who are financially comfortable and those who are struggling is very marked. People who have difficulty paying their bills are much more likely to ‘live day to day’ (72%) than those who have no such difficulty (23%). The reverse is also true; those who can pay their bills easily are more able to have a long-term perspective (43%) than those who struggle with their bills (8%). The same trend can be found for people that are not satisfied with the life they lead. A wide majority (61%) claim that they cannot make any plans for the future, whereas only 28% of the respondents that are satisfied with life feel the same.

97



*

*

*

Next we turn our attention to Europeans’ view of the future and, in particular, their hopes and concerns for welfare support, the job market and the wider social system. When analysing the results of these questions against those in this section, we can assess levels of optimism across Europe. We will also see where conflicts may arise between hopes and expectations for the future in the European Union.

98


II


EUROPEAN UNION IN 2030

The next section focuses on the European Union in 2030. The date 2030 has been chosen because the European institutions are currently considering ‘forthcoming Europe’ and planning for the year 2030. This future-focused section consists of two parts. The first part asks respondents to imagine future European society in 2030, in terms of values, the job market, and social and welfare systems. We will compare Europeans’ view of the current situation with their perception of the future for these issues. The second part asks about the same issues/topics, but requires respondents to say how they hope things will be.

1

SOCIAL ISSUES

1.1

The welfare system in the EU

- A small majority of Europeans think that their national welfare system will probably not provide enough coverage in 2030 Having analysed how Europeans judge their national social welfare today, we now turn to their expectations for the future. When asked if their own country's social welfare system will provide enough coverage in 2030, some 46% of Europeans reply 'no, probably not'. A further 36% think 'yes, probably' and 18% ‘don't know’45.

45 QJ2a.1 Let’s now think about what will be the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system in 2030. In your opinion, in 2030, your social welfare system,… Will provide wide enough coverage 99



As this topic was explored in a previous section46, we are able to compare the results, and here we see a very interesting discrepancy. When asked about their welfare system today47, the majority of Europeans (48%) think the statement ‘provides enough coverage’ applies ‘fairly well', whereas 42% think it ‘applies fairly badly’. Comparing these results to the respondents’ view of the future, we see a reverse view, which indicates a low level of confidence in the future of the system.

There is some variation in the country-by-country results. In Sweden (62%) and France (61%) respondents are least optimistic for the future of the social system, believing their system will ‘probably not’ provide wide enough coverage.

46

Part 4, chapter 5.3 : The national welfare system today QJ1a.1 For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Your social welfare system … Provides wide enough coverage 100 47



Respondents in a number of other countries express concern over the future of their welfare systems. The majority of respondents in Slovenia (58%), Poland (55%), Germany (54%), the UK (53%) and the Czech Republic (50%) are all doubtful of their systems providing sufficient coverage in 2030. Respondents in Spain are the most positive, with 60% replying ‘yes, probably’ when asked if their system will provide sufficient coverage in 2030. In some countries, notably Malta (40%), Cyprus (36%), Bulgaria (34%), there is a very high level of respondents who are unable to answer the question. COMPARISON CURRENT SITUATION AND EXPECTATIONS OF NATIONAL SOCIAL WELFARE SYSTEMS QJ1.1 Provides wide enough coverage.Difference QJ2.1 Will provide 'Applies well' - 'Applies wide enough coverage. badly' Difference 'Y es' - 'No' EU27

+6

-10

ES

+39

+36

BG

-59

+30

LU

+71

+14

RO

-47

+14

DK

+22

+8

LV

-82

+7

CY

-29

+6

BE

+42

+5

FI

+36

+4

EL

-67

+3

SK

-35

+2

LT

-55

=

IE

+27

-1

MT

+32

-2

IT

-5

-3

NL

+56

-4

EE

-48

-6

AT

+19

-7

HU

-29

-13

CZ

-22

-15

DE

+28

-23

UK

+17

-23

SI

-18

-28

PT

-45

-29

PL

-52

-29

SE

+9

-31

FR

+39

-33

MK

-23

+26

TR

-17

+14

HR

-46

-6

101



A comparison of the results for the current system and the future projections reveals

great

expectations for

differences.

Here

we

compare

evaluations

of

‘today’,

with

’tomorrow’, using an index showing the difference between the

proportion giving a positive rating and the proportion giving a negative one48. A positive index score indicates a positive rating of the welfare system, whereas a negative score indicates a negative attitude. When comparing the assessment of today’s social welfare system with the expectation of tomorrow’s services, we can see that respondents in some countries are satisfied with the current system, but have serious concerns about the future. On the other hand, in other countries they are dissatisfied now, but see a much brighter future to come. Bulgaria is an interesting case as the difference between the two indexes is huge (+89 points). The index for the assessment of today’s system scores an overwhelming -59. Turning to the future however, respondents reveal an optimistic attitude (+30 points). Latvia demonstrates a similar pattern to Bulgaria (+89 points difference), as do Greece (+70), Romania (+61) and Lithuania (+55). All of these countries are dissatisfied now, but have high hopes for the future. In other countries we observe the opposite pattern. In these cases satisfaction with the situation today is very high, but expectations for the future are very bleak. Such countries include France (-72 points difference between the two indexes), the Netherlands (-60 points), Luxembourg (-57), Germany (-51), the UK (-40) and Sweden (-40). The socio-demographic analysis reveals important differences corresponding to the age of respondents. Students (52%) and the younger age group 15-24 (49%) are more confident about the future of the system, compared to the older 55+ age group (33%). However, in the previous question that asked about today’s welfare system49, there was little difference between the age groups’ assessment of the current system. Among the younger, 15-24 age group, 47% think the system provides wide enough coverage, and 49% of the older group agrees. An interesting difference emerges when we look at the groups classifying themselves as ‘low’ , ‘medium’ or ‘high’ on the social ladder. Of those who think they are ‘low’, 30% believe their national social system will provide wide enough coverage in 2030. 48

Evaluation of the current system: difference in the proportion of respondents answering ‘applies fairly well’‘applies fairly badly’ to the statement “For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Your social welfare system … Provides wide enough coverage”. For the future system: difference in the proportion of respondents answering ‘Yes, probably’ ‘No, probably not’ to the statement “Let’s now think about what will be the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system in 2030. In your opinion, in 2030, your social welfare system,… Will provide wide enough coverage” 49 QJ1a.1 For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Your social welfare system … Provides wide enough coverage 102



This applies to 37% of people who think they are ‘medium’ and 42% who believe they are ‘high’. One possible explanation is that those most likely to need or use the social system of support are also most likely to fear that it will be lacking in the future.

- Europeans fear welfare will be too expensive in 2030 When asked to imagine the situation in future, and judge whether the system will be too expensive, the majority view is that the future welfare system will be unaffordable; 57% of Europeans agree that it will ‘probably be too expensive’50. Fewer respondents (23%) think ‘no, probably not’. One in five interviewees (20%) ‘don’t know’.

A country-by-country analysis reveals a varied picture across the European Union, even though the majority of respondents in almost all countries believe that the future welfare system will be too expensive for their national society. A clear majority among respondents in Greece agree it will be too expensive (74%), closely followed by interviewees in Belgium (73%) and France (71%). On the other hand, respondents in Bulgaria (34%), Lithuania (39%), Spain (43%) and Latvia (44%) are the least likely to agree their system will be too expensive.

50

QJ2a.2 Let’s now think about what will be the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system in 2030. In your opinion, in 2030, your social welfare system,… Will be too expensive for the (NATIONALITY) society 103



A socio-demographic breakdown of the results shows that managers (62%) are rather more inclined to think social welfare system will be too expensive in 2030 than students (48%). Generally speaking, the majority view in all socio-demographic categories is that the social welfare system will be too expensive for their own country.

104


1.2


The job market tomorrow in the EU - Europeans think the future job market will be difficult -

In a previous section that looked at confidence in the current employment market, we saw that a large majority (80%) of Europeans believe that it is difficult to find a good job51, even with high qualifications. Now we turn our attention to their perception of the future, and whether it will be difficult or not to find a good job in 2030 even with high qualifications52. 54% of respondents think it will be difficult to find a good job even with high qualifications. Another 27% don't think it will be difficult, and 19% are unable to form an opinion on this subject.

Comparing these results with the 80% of Europeans who agree and 17% disagree when asked about the current job market, we see that Europeans believe that finding a good job will be easier in future.

51

QJ7.1 Could you please tell me whether you totally agree, tend to agree, tend to disagree or totally disagree with each of the following statements? It is difficult to find a good job in (OUR COUNTRY) even with high qualifications 52 QJ8.1 Let’s now think about the employment situation in (COUNTRY) in 2030. In your opinion, in 2030, … It will be difficult to find a good job in (OUR COUNTRY) even with high qualifications 105



Some interesting differences emerge when we examine the country-bycountry analysis: while respondents in Cyprus and Greece (both 78%), Slovenia and Romania (both 67%), France (65%), the UK (64%) and Luxembourg (64%) believe it will be difficult to find a good job in their country even with high qualifications, only 24% of Bulgarians feel the same way, although a greater number in Bulgaria admit they do not know what the future job situation will be like (46%). Respondents are more confident about the future job market in Denmark (56% tend to think it will not be difficult to find a good job in the future), Sweden, the Netherlands and Estonia (both 50%).

106



COMPARISON CURRENT SITUATION AND EXPECTATIONS FOR FINDING A GOOD JOB QJ7.1 It is difficult to find a good job in (OUR COUNTRY) even with high qualifications. Difference 'Agree' 'Disagree'

QJ8.1 It will be difficult to find a good job in (OUR COUNTRY) even with high qualifications. Difference 'Yes' - ' No'

EU27

+63

+27

CY

+72

+68

EL

+82

+58

RO

+86

+55

SI

+75

+49

PT

+87

+46

UK

+62

+46

FR

+70

+45

LU

+37

+44

ES

+77

+40

IE

+87

+37

IT

+79

+37

BE

+48

+30

HU

+83

+27

SK

+68

+21

MT

+35

+19

DE

+54

+17

FI

+48

+13

CZ

+41

+10

PL

+50

+1

LT

+77

-1

AT

+21

-4

BG

+70

-6

LV

+80

-11

SE

+47

-12

EE

+67

-17

NL

+16

-19

DK

+34

-21

HR

+85

+46

TR

+68

+45

MK

+88

+31

A comparison of the results for the current job market and the future employment situation uncovers some major differences by country:

to

demonstrate this, we compare the results for current scores (the job market ‘today‘), with future assessments (the job market in 2030), again using an index calculated by taking the difference between positive ratings and negative scores.53

53 QJ8.1 Evaluation of the current situation: difference in the proportion of respondents that agree and disagree with the statement “ It is difficult to find a good job in (OUR COUNTRY) even with high qualifications”. For the future situation: difference in the proportion of respondents answering ‘Yes, probably’ and ‘No, probably not’ to the statement “It will be difficult to find a good job in (OUR COUNTRY) even with high qualifications” 107



Where the index is positive, this indicates a pessimistic assessment of the how easy it is to find a job (today, or in 2030). This analysis shows that respondents in Latvia (+91 points of difference between the two indexes), Estonia (+84), Lithuania (+78) and Bulgaria (+76) are negative about the current situation, yet very optimistic about the future. The situation is reversed in Luxembourg (-7 points of difference between the two indexes) where people are more satisfied with the job market today than confident for the future. Turning to the socio demographic analysis, some differences in opinion can be noted in accordance with levels of education. People who finished their education earlier (59%) believe it will be hard to find a good job in their country, compared to the longest-educated (48%). The occupation of the respondents creates also some differences: the unemployed also feel it will be harder to find a job (64%) than managers (43%). Finally, those people who currently find it more difficult to pay their bills also feel it will be more difficult to find a job in future. Of those who find it difficult to pay their bills ‘most of the time’ 66% believe it will be hard to find a job in 2030. In contrast, just 50% of those who ‘almost never’ have difficulty paying bills imagine it will be difficult to find a job in 2030.

108



- A relative majority of Europeans think that in 2030, changing jobs every years will be necessary to stay in employment 42% Europeans tend to agree that 'changing jobs every few years' will be necessary to stay in employment54. Another 36% of Europeans disagree and 22% have no opinion on this issue.

For the present, 45% think it is necessary to change jobs frequently to stay in employment, but it is the minority view (47% disagree). For 2030, a lesser proportion of Europeans think it will be necessary to switch jobs often in the future (42%), but here it is the majority view. This is due to the high percentage of ‘don’t know’ answers (22%). Overall, the slight difference observed between the assessments of the situation today and in the future is mostly due to the high level of uncertainty about this aspect of the question about 2030.

54 QJ8.3 Let’s now think about the employment situation in (COUNTRY) in 2030. In your opinion, in 2030, changing jobs every few years is necessary to stay in employment 109


2.

IMAGINING THE EU IN 2030

2.1

Life in general


- A relative majority of Europeans imagine life will be harder in 2030 The next question invites respondents to imagine how the European Union will be in 2030. They are specifically asked to say whether life in the future will be easier or more difficult for European citizens55. Although opinion is somewhat divided, the majority of Europeans believe that life will be more difficult in 2030 (32%). Some 30% think it will be neither ‘easier’ nor ‘more difficult’. A further 28% believe it will be easier, whereas one in ten respondents (10%) answer that they ‘don’t know’.

It is interesting to compare these results with those from another question about the future of the European Union56.

55 QF2 Imagine how the European Union will be in 2030. Compared with today, will the life of European citizens be…? 56 See page 211 of the Standard report, part III, The European Union today and tomorrow, chapter 6, The future of the EU. 110



In this case, when asked how they felt about the future of the European Union – without giving a date for the future -, a majority (64%) of Europeans were 'optimistic'57. It seems that generally Europeans are quite positive about the future of the EU, but when the question is more precise, and focused on the life of European citizens, the respondents are liable to give a different – and more pessimistic – response.

Wide variations are revealed by a country-by-country analysis of results. Respondents in Lithuania (59%), Latvia (46%), Bulgaria (45%), Denmark and Slovakia (both 43%), Hungary and Poland (42%) think that life in the European Union will be easier in 2030. However, respondents from Luxembourg (53%) and Greece (51%) are rather more pessimistic, the majority believing that life will be more difficult.

57 QF1 Would you say that you are very optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic or very pessimistic about the future of the European Union? 111



In Austria (44%) a significant proportion of respondents state that life will be ‘neither easier’ nor ‘more difficult’. QF2 Imagine how the European Union will be in 2030. Compared with today, will the life of European citizens be…? - % EU Neither easier nor Easier More difficult DK more difficult EU27 28% 32% 30% 10% Sex Male

30%

32%

29%

9%

Female Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Respondent occupation scale Self- employed Managers Other w hite collars Manual w orkers House persons Unemployed Retired Students

26%

32%

31%

11%

36% 29% 28% 24%

27% 32% 32% 33%

29% 30% 31% 30%

8% 9% 9% 13%

32% 35% 29% 26% 22% 28% 24% 39%

34% 25% 30% 34% 35% 35% 33% 23%

26% 32% 33% 30% 28% 26% 30% 31%

8% 8% 8% 10% 15% 11% 13% 7%

The socio-demographic breakdown reveals that men (30%) are more likely than women (26%) to think the life of European citizens will be easier in 2030. Younger people aged 15-24 (36%) tend to be more positive than older people aged 55+ (24%). Optimism is the majority view among the youngest respondents. Managers (35%) are also more likely to think that life will be easier in 2030 for European citizens, house-persons the least likely (22%).

112


2.2


Main concerns - The economic situation colours Europeans’ view of the future -

Having seen that almost a third of Europeans imagine that life will be more difficult in the EU in 2030 than today, we now look at what they perceive the greatest challenges might be. This question is devised to uncover the two primary issues that Europeans believe their country will have to face in 2030. A similar question is asked in almost every wave of the Standard Eurobarometer to gauge current personal and national levels of concern58. We now ask exactly the same question to see whether there are different concerns when imagining life in the EU in 2030.

QF18 Let’s now think about what will be the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system in 2030. In your opinion, in 2030, your social welfare system,… - % EU Will be too expensive for the (NATIONALITY ) society 23%

Economic situation Unemployment

20%

Crime

18% 17%

Pensions The environment*

16%

Healthcare system

15%

Immigration

13%

Rising prices/ inflation

12% 11%

Energy Terrorism

9%

Taxation

6%

Housing

6%

The education system Defence/ Foreign affairs

5% 4%

* Half of the sample, Split A, was given the item “Protecting the environment”. The other half, Split B, was given the item “The environment”. The result was exactly the same for both splits: 16%.

58

Part 1, chapter 1.4, Most important personal concerns of European citizens: Personally, what are the two most important issues you are facing at the moment?, Part 1, chapter 3.3, Most important national concerns: What do you think are the two most important issues facing (OUR COUNTRY) at the moment? 113



When asked to imagine what 2030 will be like, and then to choose the two most important issues in their own country59, Europeans cite the economic situation (23%) above all other options. This is in line with expectations, given the impact of the economic and financial crisis60. Unemployment is the second issue of major concern (20%). This echoes the result analysed previously61, in which 54% of Europeans say it will be difficult to find a good job in 2030. Another significant concern for Europeans in 2030 is crime (18%), followed closely by pensions (17%) and protecting the environment (16%). The healthcare system (15%) also gives Europeans cause for concern.

Slightly

fewer respondents are worried about immigration (13%), inflation (12%), energy (11%) and terrorism (9%) in their country in 2030. Of less concern to Europeans in 2030 are housing (6%), the education system (5%) and defence and foreign affairs (4%). The economic situation is the primary concern across Europe. The countries where it is of greatest concern are Romania (34%), Estonia (32%), Sweden and Italy (29%). Unemployment is also a cause for concern, particularly in Luxembourg (31%), Greece (27%), Belgium, Spain and Cyprus (all 26%). Crime is among the top concerns for Europeans; but in Cyprus it is a very significant issue (47%). Respondents in Greece (35%) and Denmark (29%) are also more concerned than the average across Europe. The future of pensions seems particularly to worry respondents in Belgium (33%), the Czech Republic (27%), France and Slovenia (both 26%). In the Nordic countries however, there is more concern about the environment. Respondents in Sweden think “protecting the environment” will be a major issue (Split A, 33%). A comparable percentage was recorded in Sweden for “the environment” (Split B, 32%). In Finland respondents’ priority is the healthcare system (29%), whereas in Malta and the UK (23%) they tend to choose immigration.

59 QF18 Still imagining what 2030 will be like, in your opinion, what will be the two most important issues facing (OUR COUNTRY) in 2030? (MAX. 2 ANSWERS) 60 See page 44 of the Standard report, part I, Life in the EU, chapter 3.2, Economic aspects: expectations for the short-term future. 61 Part 5, Chapter 1.2, The Job Market tomorrow in the EU 114



Looking to the Baltic countries, we see a variety of responses. In Estonia (32%) and Lithuania (26%) respondents’ primary concern tends to be the economic situation whereas in Latvia it is immigration (21%). Respondents in Portugal (24%) and Bulgaria (23%) are most likely to have no opinion regarding their country concerns in 2030. Across the candidate countries, significant numbers are concerned about the economic situation, as shown by respondents in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (39%), Croatia (35%) and Turkey (34%). A large proportion of respondents in Turkey cite unemployment (37%), and also terrorism (25%). When comparing the evaluation of future concerns with current national and personal concerns, some distinct differences emerge. ‘Economic situation’ (23%, compared to 42% currently) and ‘Unemployment’ (20% compared to 49% currently) are much less cited as a future than as current national concern, though still topping the list. ‘Inflation’ (12%, compared to 38% as a personal concern currently) is much less cited as a future national concern than as a current personal concern. Correspondingly, ‘crime’ (18% compared to 16% as a national concern currently, and just 8% as a personal concern), ‘pensions’ (17% compared to 9% as a national concern currently, and 15% as a personal concern) and ‘immigration’ (13% compared to 9% as a national concern currently, and just 4% as a personal concern) are more often selected as future concerns. This is essentially due to the fact in the current context, unemployment, economic crisis and inflation are above all other current concerns.

115



* For all three questions, half of the sample, Split A, was given the item “Protecting the environment”. The other half, Split B, was given the item “The environment”. The results were exactly the same for both splits, for each question: National concerns: 5% / Personal concerns: 5% / Future national concerns: 16%.

A socio-demographic analysis shows some interesting differences between categories, especially in accordance with the respondents’ level of education.

The

longest- educated are more likely to be troubled by energy (15%), pensions (20%) and the environment (regardless of the wording; protecting the environment, Split A, 20% / the environment, Split B, 21%) than those who left education earlier (energy 7%; pensions 12%; 10% for protecting the environment, split A / 8% for the environment, split B). However, those people who finished education at age 15 or below are the more likely to believe that unemployment (22%) and crime (21%) will be an important issue facing their own country in 2030 than the longest-educated (16% for both items). 116


2.3


The EU in 2030: projections

In the next section of the report, we turn our attention to the respondents’ view of society in the European Union in the future, focusing on the key social issues, such as the relative importance of the environment and the economy, then family and the work/life balance, tolerance and equality. We look at both expectations and hopes in these areas. We do this by first examining respondents’ predictions, and then in a second separate question on the same subject, we ask about their wishes for 2030. A comparison of the answers to the two questions on each subject allows us to see if Europeans expect their hopes to be realised.

2.3.1

: Environment/economy

- Europeans think there will be more focus on the economy than the environment Europeans were asked to imagine life in 2030 in the European Union: will people live in a society where more importance will be given to the economy, or to the environment62 ?

Europeans find it difficult, when imagining which will be given more importance in 2030, to choose between the economy (33%) and the environment (31%). Spontaneously, a further 23% say they will both be of equal importance and one in twenty respondents believe there will be no change from the current position (5%).

62

QF3 Do you think that in 2030, in the European Union, people will live in a society where more importance will be given to the economy, or to the environment?

117



In total, respondents in 17 Member States selected the economy over the environment, in one country (Denmark) results were equal, and in the remaining 9 countries they prioritised the environment over the economy.

The country-by country analysis shows that it is in the Nordic countries that the larger proportion of respondents tend to imagine the environment will take precedence. In Sweden 54% of interviewees think the environment will be given greater importance, as do 53% of respondents in Finland. In contrast, in Spain, Cyprus and the Netherlands (all 50%) respondents think the economy will be given more importance in 2030. Turning to the candidate countries, respondents in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are of the firm opinion that the economy (51%) will take precedence over the environment (23%).

118



Looking at the answers by socio-demographic category, we see that the categories that are more inclined to think that the economy will be given greater weight than the environment are: -

men (34%), compared to 31% of women;

-

the young, aged 15 to 24 (37%, compared to 31% of the respondents

-

the unemployed (40%) compared to 32% of managers, and 31% of the

aged 55+); self-employed; -

those who are pessimistic about the future of the EU (37%), compared to 32% of those who are confident in the future of EU.

2.3.2

Solidarity/Individualism - Europeans expect solidarity will outweigh individualism in 2030 -

Europeans were then asked to rate the relative importance of individualism and solidarity in the European future of 203063.

Europeans are more likely to cite solidarity (35%), than individualism (31%). Spontaneously, a further 18% say that solidarity and individualism will both be given equal importance in 2030. Some 6% think there will be ‘no change’ and things will be the ‘same as today's society’. One in 10 of those respondents polled are unable to give a view on this matter (10%). Even if European is divided in this respect, the balance is firmly in favour of solidarity, with respondents in 18 countries opting for ‘solidarity’ and only 9 choosing ‘individualism’. 63

QF4 And in 2030, in the European Union, do you think that people will live in a society where more importance will be given to solidarity, or to individualism?

119



The responses in Cyprus and Finland are quite striking. Far more Cypriots think ‘individualism’ (69%) than ‘solidarity’ (22%) will dominate in 2030. In Greece also respondents are very much more inclined to choose individualism (54%) over solidarity (26%). In contrast, far more respondents in Finland cite solidarity (62%) than individualism (28%). QF4 And in 2030, in the European Union, do you think that people will live in a society where more importance will be given to solidarity, or to individualism?

Solidarity

Individualism

Both will have equal importance (SPONT.)

No change, the same as today’s society (SPONT.)

DK

EU27

35%

31%

18%

6%

10%

BE

38%

35%

19%

6%

2%

BG

25%

14%

32%

7%

22%

CZ

34%

40%

15%

6%

5%

DK

43%

44%

8%

1%

4%

DE

30%

24%

28%

9%

9%

EE

59%

20%

9%

3%

9%

IE

28%

18%

23%

7%

24%

EL

26%

54%

15%

4%

1%

ES

38%

34%

13%

4%

11%

FR

43%

41%

6%

2%

8%

IT

23%

27%

31%

11%

8%

CY

22%

69%

4%

1%

4%

LV

45%

30%

11%

3%

11%

LT

50%

20%

14%

2%

14%

LU

47%

35%

10%

3%

5%

14%

28%

9%

13%

HU

36%

MT

38%

31%

7%

2%

22%

NL

41%

48%

4%

2%

5%

AT

21%

28%

34%

11%

6%

PL

41%

30%

11%

3%

15%

PT

19%

22%

28%

7%

24%

RO

39%

21%

16%

8%

16%

SI

35%

44%

13%

3%

5%

SK

36%

35%

21%

4%

4%

FI

62%

28%

7%

1%

2%

SE

44%

41%

6%

3%

6%

UK

35%

27%

15%

8%

15%

CY (tcc)

32%

38%

14%

7%

9%

MK

40%

33%

16%

4%

7%

HR

36%

35%

17%

4%

8%

TR

38%

35%

9%

5%

13%

Highest percentage in the EU 27

Low est percentage per item in the EU27



120



The socio-demographic analysis of results shows interesting differences. The categories that are more inclined to think that solidarity will take precedence over individualism in 2030 are: -

The longest-educated (40%), compared to 28% of those who left school the earliest;

-

Managers (41%), compared to 28% of house-persons;

-

People who position themselves higher on the social ladder (39%), compared than those who put themselves low on this ladder (31%);

-

Those who are optimistic about the future of the EU (42%), compared to just 23% of those who are pessimistic.

Interestingly, unemployed people are perfectly divided on this issue: equal proportions believe individualism (34%) and solidarity (34%) will be given more importance.

2.3.3

Work/Leisure - Europeans believe work will overshadow leisure in 2030 -

A relative majority of Europeans think work will be given greater emphasis (46%) than leisure (19%)64. Some 23% think work and leisure will be given equal weight.

Compared to the other subjects explored in this section, this one unites European opinion. The majority of respondents in all EU countries believe work will be given precedence over leisure.

64

QF5 And do you think that people will live in a society where more importance will be given to work, or to leisure?

121



This may suggest that many Europeans are currently feeling overworked and this is affecting their view of the future. A country-by-country analysis reveals that respondents in Greece (64%) are most likely to think that greater importance will be given to work. In Malta, Luxembourg (both 61%) and France (60%) a large proportion of respondents also believe that the emphasis will be on work, rather than leisure.

Respondents from Nordic countries, Denmark (39%) and Finland (33%) in particular, tend to think that more emphasis will be given to leisure. Still, in these countries a small majority of respondents think that it is work that will be given more emphasis. Respondents in Hungary (40%), Portugal (38%), Austria and Bulgaria (both 35%) think leisure and work will have equal importance. A large majority of respondents in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (66%), Croatia (63%), and Turkey (54%) believe that there will be by far the greater emphasis on work in future. 122



Only few socio-demographic differences exist on this topic. Younger respondents (51%), those who stayed in education the longest (49%) and managers (49%) are most likely to believe that work will be given more emphasis in future. Interestingly, this also applies to the unemployed (54%).

2.3.4 Order/Individual freedom - A majority think order will take precedence over individual freedom in 2030 Once again, European opinion is somewhat divided when evaluating whether in the future people will live in a society where more importance is given to order or to individual freedom, 35% believing more emphasis will be given to ‘order’65. However, another 30% think individual freedom will be given greater importance. Some 21% think both will have equal importance and a further 5% think there will be ‘no change’.

Respondents in the majority of the countries polled think that order will be given greater importance in 2030. 7 out the 27 Member States think that individual freedom will be given greater weight, while 2 are equally divided between freedom and order, but the majority of them (18) think order will be more important.

65

QF6 And do you think that in 2030, in the European Union, people will live in a society where more importance will be given to order, or to individual freedom?

123



Respondents from Slovenia (51%) and Finland (50%) think greater importance will be given to order. However, in Cyprus the majority of respondents think individual freedom will be given precedence (60%). Their answers are quite atypical for this question, as with their responses on individualism, where Cypriots’ opinions are very far from the EU average. In Denmark (50%), the Netherlands (44%), Sweden (42%), Belgium (36%) an absolute or relative majority

of respondents believe individual freedom will take precedence.

Respondents in Sweden and Denmark are quite unlike their Finnish counterparts in this respect. In Hungary (37%) and Bulgaria (36%), Portugal, Austria and Germany (34% in all cases), Italy (33%) and Ireland (26%) a relative majority of respondents believe both order and individual freedom will be given equal importance in 2030.

124



The socio-demographic breakdown reveals few differences in opinion, although there is a difference in views by level of education, with those who have spent longest in education being more likely to have a formed and polarised opinion than those who finished education earlier: respondents who have stopped their studies at the age of 20 or after are more likely to think the European Union in 2030 will put the emphasis on either order (38%) or individual freedom (34%), compared to those who left school before the age of 16 (respectively 31% and 26%). This can be explained by the largest proportion of those who left school the earlier to answer spontaneously that ‘both will have equal importance’ (23%, for 17% of the longest educated), or that there will be ‘no change, the same as today’s society’ (7%, for 4%), or who simply do not express any opinion on this question (13%, for 7%).

2.3.5 Time devoted to family life - Most Europeans expect less time to spend with their family in future When asked if they think that there will be more time or less time to devote to family life in the European Union in the future66, the largest percentage of Europeans expect there will be less (44%). About one third of respondents think there will be more time to devote to family life (31%) while 17% think there will be ‘no change’. Some 8% have not formed an opinion.

It is certainly the majority view that there will be less time to spend with the family: respondents in just 8 of the 27 EU countries think that there will be more time, but in 19 states they think there will be less.

66

QF7 And do you think that people will have more time or less time to devote to family life?

125



There is very wide variation in the responses given by country. There appears to be a geographical pattern to the results. In the Baltic countries, in particular in Estonia (65%) and Lithuania (61%), a majority of respondents believe there will be more time to spend with family in future. The same is true, although to a lesser extent, in the Nordic countries. However, in a good number of countries respondents take the opposite view; in Malta (76%), Cyprus (71%), Slovenia (67%), Greece (65%), the Czech Republic and Luxembourg (both 60%) people feel there will be less time for family life.

A few spontaneously mentioned there will be ‘no change’, including a significant number of respondents in Italy (28%) and Austria (27%). This is in line with their position on a number of other topics. As for almost all dimensions tested, the largest proportion of people who are unable to form an opinion is seen in Portugal (23%). Once again, the analysis of the results by socio-demographic profile of respondents does not reveal major differences. In all categories surveyed, the majority view is that in 2030, people in the European Union will have less time to devote to family life than they do today. 126



2.3.6 Tolerance towards ethnic and religious minorities - Europeans expect a more tolerant society in 2030 As the European Union expands and the world’s population becomes more mobile, there are a great number of cultures and religions represented throughout Europe. The next question aims to gauge public opinion on future tolerance of ethnic and religious minorities. When asked ‘do you think that in 2030, in the European Union, people will live in a society that will be more or less tolerant towards ethnic and religious minorities?’67 most European respondents think society will be more tolerant (43%) rather than less (31%). A lower proportion think there will be no change in tolerance towards ethnic and religious minorities (16%). 10% of respondents answered that they ‘don’t know’.

Respondents in 6 out the 27 Member States thought that the future would be less tolerant; in 21 they thought it would be more tolerant.

67

QF8 And do you think that in 2030, in the European Union, people will live in a society that will be more or less tolerant towards ethnic and religious minorities?

127



An analysis of results by country shows that respondents in Estonia (72%) and Finland (70%) are optimistic that there will be more tolerance in the future. Respondents in Slovenia, however, are much less likely to agree; some 54% believe that society will be less tolerant. It is interesting to look at the results for the Netherlands, traditionally thought to be one of the most tolerant countries in Europe. 42% think the future will be more tolerant, but 44% think it will be less tolerant. It is also significant that the three Benelux countries are similar in this respect, and the percentages are quite evenly split between more and less tolerance, with the latter being the majority view.

128



On this item, important differences can be observed by socio-demographic profile of respondents, particularly in terms of age. Over half of young people aged 1524 (51%) believe that the EU in 2030 will be more tolerant to ethnic and religious minorities. Older respondents aged 55+ tend to be less positive (38%). QF8 And do you think that in 2030, in the European Union, people will live in a society that will be more or less tolerant towards ethnic and religious minorities? - % EU More tolerant

Less tolerant

EU27 Sex

43%

31%

No change, the same as in today’s society (SPONT.) 16%

Male

45%

31%

16%

8%

Female Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Subjective urbanisation Rural village Small/mid size tow n Large tow n Future of the EU Optimistic Pessimistic

42%

31%

16%

11%

51% 44% 44% 38%

26% 32% 32% 31%

14% 16% 16% 18%

9% 8% 8% 13%

42% 42% 47%

33% 31% 27%

15% 17% 17%

10% 10% 9%

54% 26%

25% 47%

15% 17%

6% 10%

DK 10%

It seems that more city dwellers (47%) believe that the future will be tolerant compared to those who live in village communities (42%). This could be because city dwellers are more used to living in a cosmopolitan environment. It might also be an age effect as the urban population tends to be younger and the young are generally more liberal and optimistic. There is a significant difference between those who are optimistic about the future of the EU and those who are pessimistic. The majority of those who are optimistic about the future think that people will be more tolerant (54%), whereas the majority of pessimists (47%) think there will be less tolerance.

129


2.3.7


Gender equality

Respondents were then asked a two-part question on gender equality, the first of which requires them to say whether they believe women’s salaries will be equal to men’s for the same level of skills and experience in 2030. The second part addresses gender equality in the political institutions. - Europeans imagine equal pay for women by 2030 When disclosing their expectations for 2030, 59% of Europeans expect women's salaries to be equal to men’s for the same level of skills and experience68. However, close to one third of Europeans (32%) think this will probably not be the case and a further 9% ‘don't know’.

Responses by country reveal widely varying expectations for 2030. Although fourfifths of respondents in Cyprus (80%) and around three-quarters in Malta (77%) and Greece (73%) believe there will be equal pay for women, many countries are not so optimistic.

68

QF15.1 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030 in the European Union…? On average, women’s salaries will be equal to those of men for the same level of skills and experience

130



In contrast, in countries where women’s equality has been championed for some time, such as Sweden (52%) and Finland (59%), respondents are rather less likely to think that parity will be achieved by 2030. Respondents in Austria are the least likely to believe equality will be achieved by 2030. One half thinks this will 'probably not' happen (50%). It is the only country where this is the majority view. Not surprisingly, a difference emerges in the analysis of results according to gender. Men and women have a different perspective on the prospect of equality. Males are more likely to believe (62%) there will be equal pay for women in 2030 than females (55%). Younger respondents are more hopeful of parity (65%) than older people (56%), as are the longer-educated (62%), managers (63%) and students (67%).

131



Respondents’ position on the social scale also influences their attitudes towards equal pay. Those who position themselves at the top of the social ladder are more likely to think there will be equal pay for women by 2030 (65%) compared to those who position themselves at the bottom (52%). This might be because the social ladder scale is often correlated with the level of education. Despite these differences, optimism is prevalent in all categories.

- A slight majority expect equal political representation by women in 2030 49% of Europeans believe there will be an equal proportion of women and men within all political institutions by the year 2030, but only slightly fewer think this will probably not happen (40%).

A breakdown by country suggests important differences: optimism is dominant in 17 countries, but in 10 others, pessimism is the majority view. Respondents in the Czech Republic and Sweden fall into in this latter category, with 63% believing this with probably not be achieved by 2030. This also applies to respondents in Slovakia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Hungary, Austria, Germany and Poland. The countries where optimism is stronger are Cyprus (66%), Spain (63%), Greece (62%), Bulgaria and Belgium (both 60%).

132



Unlike respondents in the other Nordic countries, the majority in Finland are optimists: 58% think that in 2030, in the EU, there will be an equal repartition of women and men within political institutions. Only

small

differences

are

observed

by

socio-demographic

profile

of

respondents. As in the case of equal pay, men are more likely to believe that there will be equal representation of women in politics (51%) in 2030. Women are less confident (48%), but the difference between the genders is relatively small.

133


2.4


The EU in 2030: hopes

Having explored Europeans’ expectations for the future of the European Union in 2030 we turn our attention to their hopes for Europe in 2030. It is interesting to observe whether their hopes and expectations are in alignment, and if they are not, where the differences lie.

2.4.1

Environment/economy

- Europeans’ hopes for the environment are high, but they do not expect them to be met by 2030 To begin to explore this, respondents are first asked about their preference regarding the environment and the economy, in particular whether they would prefer a society in the European Union in 2030 where more importance is given to the economy or to the environment69. The majority of European respondents say they hope that more importance will be given to the environment (40%). A further 22% hope that more importance will be given to the economy, and 30% would prefer both to be given equal importance.

Comparing these figures with the earlier question about expectations reveals an importance difference. The ‘environment’ responses given to the question about ‘hopes for the future’ are somewhat higher (40% hope the environment will be given more importance) than the responses to the question about expectations (31% think the environment will be given more importance) analysed previously.

69

QF9 Let’s now talk about your own hopes not your predictions for the future. In 2030, in the European Union, would you prefer a society where more importance is given to the economy, or to the environment?

134



The analysis by country reveals that respondents in the Nordic countries, in line with their environmental awareness, are most likely to hope that the environment will be given priority in 2030. Respondents in Sweden (73%), Denmark (69%) and Finland (68%) all consider the environment should be given more importance. In Latvia (39%), Lithuania (37%), Malta (34%) a relatively large group of respondents would prefer the economy to take priority in 2030: this is the majority view in all three countries. In Romania, respondents believe equal weight should be given to the environment and the economy (28% both).

135



Respondents in Hungary (48%) are most likely to spontaneously express their hope that the economy and the environment will be given equal weight. In contrast, respondents in Finland 9%, Sweden 10% and Denmark 10% are least likely to spontaneously agree with this suggestion. It is in the candidate countries that we see the greatest priority given to the economy over the environment; respondents in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (48%) and in Turkey (42%) hope more importance will be given to economy in 2030. In all three candidate countries, the majority hope that priority will be given to the economy. Comparing the results with those given in the earlier question about expectations for the future as far as the environment is concerned, we see that in almost all countries, expectations have lower ratings than hopes, meaning that more people would prefer the environment to be given importance than they expect will be the case. A socio-demographic breakdown reveals some variations. The categories that are more inclined to hope that environment will take precedence over economy in European society in 2030 are: -

The longest-educated (51%), compared to 31% of those who left school the earliest;

-

Managers (52%) and students (50%), compared to 34% of house-

-

People who almost never have difficulties paying their bills (44%),

persons, and 37% of the unemployed. compared to those who struggle from time to time, or most of the time (both 35%). Despite these differences, all categories would prefer to prioritise the environment over the economy.

136


2.4.2


Solidarity/Individualism - Europeans desire a cohesive society in 2030, but are less sure it will happen -

Respondents were then asked if they would prefer a society in the European Union in 2030 which gives more importance to solidarity or to individualism.70 58% of Europeans choose solidarity over individualism (13%). A further 21% would prefer a society in which both are given equal importance.

This is in strong contrast with the results for expectations, in which 35% thought solidarity would take precedence, and 31% individual freedom. This suggests a latent desire for a more cohesive society. A country-by-country analysis unveils some variations in opinion. In Cyprus and France, a large majority of respondents (both 85%) have a preference for solidarity. There is also a strong preference for solidarity in the Netherlands and Luxembourg (both 81%) and Spain (80%). The strongest preference for individualism is seen in Finland (33%) and the UK (28%), but in all countries without exception, a larger proportion of respondents would prefer solidarity over individualism. In Austria (41%), Bulgaria (38%), and Ireland (34%), a majority of respondents would prefer both individualism and solidarity to have equal importance.

70

QF10 And in 2030, in the European Union, would you prefer a society where more importance is given to solidarity, or to individualism?

137



QF10 And in 2030, in the European Union, would you prefer a society where more importance is given to solidarity, or to individualism?

Solidarity

Individualism

A society where both will have equal importance (SPONT.)


DK

EU27

58%

13%

21%

3%

5%

BE

65%

11%

18%

5%

1%

BG

37%

7%

38%

4%

14%

CZ

65%

13%

16%

2%

4%

DK

67%

22%

8%

1%

2%

DE

47%

10%

36%

3%

4%

EE

74%

10%

9%

1%

6%

IE

26%

20%

34%

6%

14%

EL

78%

4%

17%

1%

0%

ES

80%

3%

13%

1%

3%

FR

85%

6%

4%

2%

3%

IT

37%

15%

35%

8%

5%

CY

85%

6%

7%

0%

2%

LV

63%

14%

13%

1%

9%

LT

61%

11%

18%

1%

9%

LU

81%

8%

8%

1%

2%

HU

50%

4%

32%

6%

8%

MT

75%

5%

10%

1%

9%

NL

81%

11%

5%

1%

2%

AT

33%

16%

41%

7%

3%

PL

55%

17%

14%

4%

10%

PT

39%

7%

33%

7%

14%

RO

59%

8%

22%

3%

8%

SI

73%

7%

18%

1%

1%

SK

62%

11%

23%

2%

2%

FI

58%

33%

8%

0%

1%

SE

72%

15%

8%

1%

4%

UK

43%

28%

18%

2%

9%

CY (tcc)

55%

19%

18%

3%

5%

MK

58%

18%

17%

2%

5%

HR

61%

16%

17%

2%

4%

TR

63%

17%

10%

2%

8%

Highest perc entage per item in the EU27 Highest percentage per country


138



When hope and expectations are compared, we see a huge discrepancy for Cyprus, where 85% hope for solidarity, yet just 22% expect it, a differential of 63 percentage points. There are important gaps also in Greece (52 percentage points), Spain and France (both 42 points) and the Netherlands (40 points). In other words, in these countries, respondents’ hopes for solidarity are much stronger than their expectations. This applies to all the countries surveyed, except Finland (-4 percentage points) and Ireland (-2 points). There are fewer differences revealed by the socio-demographic analysis of results to this question.

2.4.3

Work/Leisure

- Europeans’ desire for less emphasis on work is not matched by their expectations While most Europeans expect greater emphasis on work than on leisure, it is interesting to examine whether this position is reversed when they are asked about their hopes. When invited to say whether they prefer a society in 2030 where more importance is given to work or to leisure71, Europeans are divided. A slight majority say they would prefer a society in which more importance is given to leisure (33%) than work (29%). A further 32% would prefer a society in which work and leisure are given equal importance. Compared with all other dimensions analysed regarding Europeans’ hopes for society in 2030, this is the area in which opinion is the most equally divided.

71

QF11 And would you prefer a society where more importance is given to work, or to leisure?

139



The difference between the expectations and hopes of Europeans suggests a desire for a better work-life balance. Whereas 46% of Europeans believe work will be given more importance, just 29% hope that it will. This might imply that Europeans would welcome a greater emphasis on leisure. The country-by-country analysis shows that a large majority of respondents in Malta (66%) hope that work will be given more importance.. This also applies, though to a lesser extent, in France (43%), Spain and Luxembourg (both 39%), Lithuania and Latvia (both 37%). In contrast, in the Nordic countries – Denmark (57%), Finland (56%) and Sweden (53%) – a clear majority of respondents would prefer more emphasis on leisure. Three countries stand out as wanting a better balance; Portugal (51%), Austria and Germany (both 48%) are the most likely to be looking for parity between work and leisure. In total, 8 EU Member States would prefer this balanced option: it is also the majority view in Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria, Ireland, and Romania. This is quite remarkable as this item was not suggested to respondents. Among the candidate countries, Turkey (65%) stands out as wanting more emphasis to be placed on work than on leisure. In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, half of respondents would also prefer a society which gave more importance to work than to leisure (50% vs. 22%). The situation is reversed in Croatia, where the majority would prefer a society where more importance is given to leisure than to work (42% leisure, vs. 31% work).

140



QF11 And would you prefer a society where more importance is given to work, or to leisure? A society where No change, the both will have same as today’s equal society importance (SPONT.) (SPONT.)

Work

Leisure

DK

EU27

29%

33%

32%

3%

3%

BE

29%

34%

31%

5%

1%

BG

20%

25%

44%

3%

8%

CZ

21%

51%

23%

3%

2%

DK

23%

57%

17%

1%

2%

DE

22%

24%

48%

3%

3% 4%

EE

34%

42%

19%

1%

IE

20%

28%

42%

4%

6%

EL

19%

44%

36%

1%

0%

ES

39%

27%

30%

1%

3%

FR

43%

35%

18%

1%

3%

IT

29%

14%

46%

7%

4%

CY

26%

42%

31%

0%

1%

LV

37%

28%

29%

1%

5%

LT

37%

28%

31%

1%

3%

LU

39%

35%

22%

2%

2%

HU

14%

33%

47%

4%

2%

MT

66%

6%

23%

0%

5%

NL

32%

50%

15%

1%

2%

AT

11%

32%

48%

6%

3%

PL

28%

45%

18%

3%

6%

PT

20%

10%

51%

7%

12%

RO

29%

29%

34%

2%

6%

SI

17%

46%

37%

0%

0%

SK

20%

49%

28%

2%

1%

FI

30%

56%

13%

0%

1%

SE

29%

53%

15%

1%

2%

UK

26%

44%

24%

2%

4%

CY (tcc)

59%

14%

22%

2%

3%

MK

50%

22%

25%

1%

2%

HR

31%

42%

23%

2%

2%

TR

65%

16%

10%

3%

6%

Highest percentage in the Eu27 Highest percentage per country


141



Looking at the socio-demographic differences we see that men would prefer a future where more importance is given to leisure (34%) while women would prefer a society where both work and leisure would be given equal importance (34%). QF11 And would you prefer a society where more importance is given to work, or to leisure? - % EU

33%

A society where both will have equal importance (SPONT.) 32%

No change, the same as today’s society (SPONT.) 3%

3%

29%

34%

31%

3%

3%

28%

31%

34%

3%

4%

26% 25% 27% 34%

41% 39% 34% 23%

28% 31% 33% 35%

2% 2% 3% 3%

3% 3% 3% 5%

33% 29% 27% 23%

22% 32% 40% 43%

35% 33% 29% 29%

5% 3% 2% 2%

5% 3% 2% 3%

Work

Leisure

EU27 Sex

29%

Male Female Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Education (End of) 1516-19 20+ Still studying

DK

The youngest age group (15-24) looks forward to a future with a greater emphasis on leisure compared to work (41% leisure, 26% work), but the pattern is reversed among the older respondents, aged 55+ (23% leisure, 34% work). Finally, the longer respondents have spent in education, the more they would prefer a future European society where leisure will be more important than work.

142


2.4.4


Order/Individual freedom

- Europeans hope for a society that values freedom over order, but do not expect this to happen by 2030 We have seen that Europeans are somewhat divided over their expectations of order versus freedom. We now turn to their hopes in this respect. 35% of Europeans would prefer a society where more importance is given to individual freedom, but 29% would prefer the emphasis to be on order72. A further 28% would prefer equal importance to be given to each. Only 3% want no change and 5% have no opinion.

A comparison of responses to the questions about ‘expectations’ and ‘hope’ demonstrates that Europeans would prefer more emphasis on freedom, but they expect that this is less likely to happen. The majority of people expect greater emphasis on order (35%), but the largest proportion of those who express a preference would prefer freedom (35%).

72

QF12 And in 2030, in the European Union, would you prefer a society where more importance is given to order, or to individual freedom?

143



A comparison by country shows that in Malta 63% of respondents would prefer a society where more importance is given to order. Overall, respondents in 10 Member States would prefer a society in the European Union in 2030 in which more importance is given to order. Apart from Luxembourg and Spain, the other 8 countries are all recent Member States.

QF12 And in 2030, in the European Union, would you prefer a society where more importance is given to order, or to individual freedom?

EU27

Order

Individual freedom

A society where both will have equal importance (SPONT.)


DK

29%

35%

28%

3%

5% 1%

BE

33%

36%

25%

5%

BG

23%

20%

45%

3%

9%

CZ

36%

37%

22%

3%

2%

DK

28%

58%

10%

1%

3%

DE

21%

27%

45%

4%

3%

EE

46%

33%

15%

2%

4%

IE

18%

30%

36%

5%

11%

EL

21%

50%

28%

1%

0%

ES

39%

29%

27%

2%

3%

FR

30%

53%

12%

1%

4%

IT

24%

25%

41%

6%

4%

CY

45%

32%

21%

0%

2%

LV

43%

29%

21%

1%

6%

LT

40%

28%

28%

1%

3%

LU

40%

37%

18%

2%

3%

HU

22%

23%

47%

4%

4%

MT

63%

15%

14%

1%

7%

NL

39%

47%

11%

1%

2%

AT

13%

35%

45%

5%

2%

PL

50%

24%

16%

4%

6%

PT

18%

13%

49%

6%

14%

RO

43%

18%

30%

3%

6%

SI

28%

38%

33%

0%

1%

SK

38%

32%

26%

2%

2%

FI

40%

50%

9%

0%

1%

SE

36%

46%

13%

1%

4%

UK

20%

49%

21%

3%

7%

CY (tcc)

46%

24%

22%

3%

5%

(

)

MK

44%

27%

23%

2%

4%

HR

38%

38%

20%

2%

2%

TR

58%

21%

12%

2%

7%

Highest percentage per item in the EU27 Highest percentage per country


144



In contrast, the majority of respondents from Denmark choose individual freedom (58%). Overall, respondents in 10 Member States express a preference for individual freedom. Apart from the Czech Republic and Slovenia, all are long-standing Member States. Portuguese respondents prefer equilibrium between order and individual freedom (49%). This balanced choice is also the majority view in Hungary (47%), Bulgaria, Germany and Austria (all 45%), Italy (41%) and Ireland (36%). Comparing expectations and hopes for the future, we see that the respondents in Malta hope for order more than they expect it (25 points differential). The same is true of respondents in Cyprus (21 points). In Greece, however, respondents expect more order than they would like (-22 percentage points differential). The socio-demographic analysis reveals that the categories that are more inclined to hope that individual freedom will take precedence over order in European society in 2030 are: -

The youngest respondents (43% of those aged 15-24). The wish for individual freedom decreases as people get older: 39% of the 25-39 age group, 36% of the 40-54s and 27% of the 55+ group express this preference;

-

Those who studied the longest (42%) and students (44%), compared to 24% of those who left school at the age of 15 or before;

-

Managers (42%), compared to 28% of house-persons.

145


2.4.5


Time dedicated to the family life

- Most Europeans wish for more time with their family, but do not expect this to happen We saw previously that a large proportion of Europeans think there will be less time to spend with family in their future society. However, this is definitely not what they want. 78% of Europeans state they would prefer a society where people have more time to spend with their family, vs. just 7% who would prefer to spend less time with their family73. Another 11% are presumably satisfied and do not wish for any change in the current situation.

This is, by far, the subject where hopes and expectations are most divergent: indeed, we have seen that just over 3 respondents out of 10 expect that people will have more time to devote (31%), when 44% think that they will less time74. Hopes are way superior to expectations on this topic. A country-by-country analysis shows few differences; this topic attracts a considerable degree of consensus. Cyprus and Finland (93%) top the list of countries whose respondents say they would prefer to have more time to spend with their families. This opinion is less widespread among respondents in Austria (65%), Portugal (62%) and Italy (61%). In these countries, the proportion of respondents who spontaneously say that they have no wish for change is higher than the EU average of 11% (respectively 23%, 17% and 20%).

73 74

QF13 And would you prefer a society where people have more time or less time to devote to family life? Page 125 of this report, chapter 2.3.5: Imagining the EU in 2030; Time devoted to family life

146



In the candidate countries, respondents in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia stand out, being the most likely to say they would prefer a society where they spend less time with their family (23%). Only a few differences can be observed by socio-demographic profile of respondents. For all categories, spending more time with the family seems an essential requirement.

2.4.6. Tolerance towards ethnic and religious minorities - Europeans’ wishes for tolerance are greater than their expectations When asked about their hopes regarding how tolerant the society will be in the European Union in 2030, Europeans are in general agreement once again: 73% of Europeans would prefer a society that is more tolerant towards ethnic and religious minorities. Just 10% state that they would prefer a less tolerant society and 12% perceive little need for change75.

In comparison with their expectations for the future, in which 43% foresee a more tolerant society, most European respondents hope for greater tolerance (73%). This suggests that Europeans would like to see greater understanding and tolerance of ethnic and religious minorities than they currently experience. Two countries, Finland (89%) and Spain (88%), top the list of countries in which respondents would like to see a more tolerant society. On the other hand, respondents in Greece are most likely to want a less tolerant society (26%). Austria (24%) and Italy (22%) see no need for change. However, this is very much the minority opinion. 75

QF14 And in 2030, in the European Union, would you prefer a society that is more or less tolerant towards ethnic and religious minorities?

147



Again, despite differences in the strength of feeling, all socio-demographic groups very much wish for a society that will be more tolerant towards ethnic and religious minorities in the future.

148


2.4.7


Gender equality - Europeans’ hopes for equal pay may not be realised in 2030 -

We saw previously that Europeans’ expectations of gender equality vary somewhat between the different Member States. When asked whether they hope that women’s salaries will be equal to those of men for the same level of skills and experience in the European Union in 203076, Europeans broadly agree:

the large majority would

choose a society in which women enjoy equal pay to men (83%, with 56% answering ‘yes, definitely’). Only 12% of Europeans do not want a society where men’s and women's pay is equal.

In the question about expectations, 59% of Europeans said they expected women's salaries to be equal to those of men. Their hopes for the future may be frustrated in this respect.

76

QF16.1 And in 2030, in the European Union, would you prefer a society where…? On average, women’s salaries are equal to those of men for the same level of skills and experience

149



Respondents in Sweden are the most in favour of gender equality in pay, with a nearunanimous opinion (99%), 93% of whom say 'yes, definitely' to equality. Respondents in Denmark (96%), Cyprus (96%) and Finland (95%) are also strongly in favour.

Elsewhere a slightly more nuanced picture emerges. Although the majority of respondents still want equal pay for males and females, a significant proportion in Hungary (23%), Italy (22%), and the Czech Republic (21%) say they do not want equality in this respect. There are few marked differences revealed in a socio-demographic analysis: there is, perhaps surprisingly, very little difference between men (84% want equal pay for women) and women (82%) on this subject. 150



Levels of personal satisfaction also have a bearing on the respondents’ answers. Those who feel a high level of satisfaction with the life they lead77 are more likely to want equal pay for women (85%) than those who are dissatisfied (77%).

77 Page 7 of the Standard report, part I, Life in the EU, chapter 1.1, Personal aspects: the current personal situation of Europeans

151



- More people want equal political representation by women than expect it to happen European public opinion regarding gender equality in the political institutions is also very clear: most Europeans would prefer a society in which there are equal proportions of men and women in all political institutions, 77% being in favour of this, with a relative majority of 48% answering ‘yes, definitely’. Just 17% are against.

When compared with the 49% of Europeans who believe there will be an equal proportion of women and men within all political institutions, we see that once again Europeans’ hopes go further than what they expect. There is some variation in opinion across different countries. While 92% of Swedish respondents are ‘for’ equal representation of men and women in politics, in Czech Republic (62%), Poland (63%) and Hungary (64%), this proportion drops to more than 6 respondents out of 10. Despite some variations, it should be noted that in all countries, a large majority of interviewees would prefer a society where there will be an equal proportion of women and men within all political institutions. Again, on the whole, and despite some differences in terms of intensity of opinion, respondents in all Member States and the candidate countries hope to see equal proportion of women and men within all political institutions in 2030.

152



As European public opinion is not divided on this issue, there are few differences between the different socio-demographic categories.

153



3

ECONOMY AND GEOGRAPHY OF THE EU IN 2030: PROJECTIONS

3.1

The EU in 2030: an economic power?

Having focused on expectations and preferences regarding society in the European Union in 2030, we now turn more generally to Europeans’ opinion regarding the future of the European Union, in terms of economic and political power, as well as its geographical limits. QF17 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030, the European Union…? - % EU

Yes, probably

No, probably not

DK

Will only be a secondary economic power EB71 Sp. 2009 EB67 Sp. 2007

33% 31%

47%

20%

49%

20%

Will have, with the euro, a more powerful currency than the dollar EB71 Sp. 2009 EB67 Sp. 2007

56%

25%

61%

22%

19% 17%

Will be a leading diplomatic power in the world EB71 Sp. 2009 EB67 Sp. 2007

56%

26%

61%

22%

18% 17%

Will go far beyond the limits of the European continent* EB71 Sp. 2009

* New item

154

43%

37%

20%


-


Most Europeans think the EU will remain a primary economic force in 2030 -

Europeans were firstly asked whether they believe that the European Union in 2030 will only be a secondary economic power78. As analysed previously79 respondents believe the EU is best characterised by its economic power and this is, for Europeans, the most important determinant of the power and influence of a country or a group of countries. Europeans are fairly optimistic about the strength of the European economic power in the year 2030: 47% believe that the European Union will not be just a secondary economic power. Nevertheless, a substantial minority hold the contrary opinion (33%). Since the question was last asked in Spring 200780, there has been a slight increase in the proportion of respondents who believe Europe will become a secondary economic power (up from 31% to 33%). A country breakdown of the results shows that respondents in Cyprus and the UK are the most pessimistic about the future fortunes of the EU, with the majority, 54% of respondents in Cyprus and 51% in the UK, believing the EU will probably be a secondary economic power. Respondents in Germany, on the other hand, are the more positive: 71% believe this will not happen. Respondents in Bulgaria are least likely to know their minds on this question, with 43% having no answer to this question. In 7 out of the 27 Member States, an absolute majority (in Cyprus and the UK) or a relative majority (in Latvia, Ireland, Slovenia, Belgium, and Luxembourg) of respondents think that it is likely that Europe will be a secondary economic power, but those in the remaining 20 countries believe this is unlikely to happen.

78 QF17.1 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030, the European Union…? Will only be a secondary economic power 79 QB2a And in your opinion, which of the following best characterizes the European Union? 80 It is to be noted that the question asked in the EB67 was slightly different: “For each of the following, please tell me if according to you, in 50 years from now, the European Union…?”

155



There are variations of opinion by socio-demographic profile of respondents. Men are more optimistic about the EU's future economic role than women, with 51% men believing the EU will probably not become a secondary economic power, versus 44% of women. The longest-educated (53%) tend to be more positive, with over half believing the EU is unlikely to become a secondary power. Those who finished education earlier are less optimistic (40%). Respondents’ answers to this question may also reflect their own financial situation; 51% of those who have no difficulty paying bills think the EU will not become a secondary financial power, but those who struggle financially are less confident about the EU’s future (39%) in this respect. These differences between categories can usually be explained by variations in the level of ‘don’t know’ responses, rather by variations in the proportions of respondents who think that the EU will only be a secondary economic power.

156



QF17.1 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030, the European Union…? - % EU Will only be a secondary economic power No, probably Yes, probably DK not EU27 33% 47% 20% Sex Male

34%

51%

15%

Female

33%

44%

23%

35% 34% 35% 31%

48% 48% 48% 45%

17% 18% 17% 24%

32% 34% 34% 34%

40% 47% 53% 52%

28% 19% 13% 14%

36% 35% 32%

39% 45% 51%

25% 20% 17%

Age 15-24 25-39 40-54 55 + Education (End of) 1516-19 20+ Still studying Difficulties to pay bills Most of the time From time to time Almost never

- The majority of Europeans believe the euro will be stronger than the dollar in 2030 We have seen previously that a solid majority of Europeans (61%) were in favour of a European Monetary Union with one single currency, the euro81. Europeans were also asked to look to the future and to give their opinion on the relative strength of the euro in 2030 compared to the US dollar82. Over half of Europeans (56%) are quite optimistic and believe that by 2030 the European Union will have, with the euro, a more powerful currency than the dollar. One quarter (25%) think it likely the euro will not be as strong as the dollar and 19% have no opinion on the matter. Since this question was last asked in Spring 2007, Europeans have less confidence in the euro. Compared to the dollar, fewer people think that the euro will be as strong (down from 61% to 56%) in the year 2030. However those living in the euro area have greater confidence in the future of the euro (60%) compared to those in the non-euro area (50%).

81 Part 3, The EU today and tomorrow

. Chapter 2 : Support to European policies QF17.2 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030, the European Union…? Will have, with the euro, a more powerful currency than the dollar 82

157



The country-by-country analysis reveals that respondents in the Netherlands and in Slovakia – the country which joined the euro area most recently, in January 2009 - are the most optimistic regarding the future of the euro, with 75% in each country believing the euro will probably be more powerful than the dollar by 2030.

It is interesting to observe the differences between Malta and Cyprus, both of which adopted the euro in 2008. While in both countries the majority of respondents believe the euro will be more powerful than the dollar in future, the strength of feeling is greater in Cyprus (72%) than in Malta (56%). UK respondents, whose government has chosen not to join the European common currency, are the least confident; the majority (45%) believe the euro is unlikely to be as strong as the dollar. There are some differences according to the socio-demographic profile of the respondents:

once again men tend to be more optimistic about the EU's future

prospects, 61% believing that the euro will probably be a more powerful currency than the dollar in the European Union in 2030, versus 52% of women. People who stayed in education until the age of 20 or after (62%) tend also to be more positive about the euro's future, compared to those who left school earliest (47%). Again, these variations are essentially due to variations in the level of ‘don’t know’ responses.

158



- Europeans believe the EU will be a considerable diplomatic force in the world in 2030 Having focused on Europeans’ opinions about the economic prospects of the European Union, we now turn to the political and diplomatic aspects of the EU’s future. Over half of the Europeans polled (56%) think that the European Union will be a leading diplomatic power in 2030 83. Another 26% believe that the EU will not be a leading diplomatic power in 2030 and 18% ‘don't know’. A country-by-country analysis shows that respondents in Germany, Greece, and Malta are the most optimistic about the long-term prospects, believing that the European Union will be a leading diplomatic power in the world in 2030 (all 66%).

On the other hand, respondents in Latvia (47%) and Slovenia (45%) are most likely to believe that the EU will 'probably not' be a leading diplomatic power in the world. There are some differences according to the socio-demographic profile of the respondents: men, the longer- educated, managers, and those who are more able to pay their bills are the most likely to imagine that in 2030, the European Union will be a leading diplomatic power in the world. 83

QF17.3 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030, the European Union…? Will be a leading diplomatic power in the world

159



Important differences exist in terms of Europeans’ opinions about the future of the EU. While two-third of the optimists think that the EU will be a leading diplomatic power in 2030 (66%, vs 20% who think it will not), pessimists are quite logically much more divided (39%, vs. 40%).

- A slight majority believe that the EU will go far beyond the limits of the European continent Finally, at a time where the geographical boundaries of the EU are sometimes debated, we asked Europeans whether they think that the EU will go far beyond the limits of the European continent by 203084. 43% of Europeans believe that in 2030 the EU will probably go far beyond the limits of the European continent. Slightly fewer respondents (37%) think this is probably not the case. Of all the 4 dimensions tested regarding the future of the European Union, this is where Europeans are the most divided; they were also divided when asked previously whether they were for or against further enlargement of the EU to include other countries in future years (43% were for, vs. 46% against)85. An analysis by country shows significant differences:

respondents in Slovakia

(58%), Greece (56%) and Cyprus (53%) are the most likely to believe the EU will go far beyond the limits of the European continent. This view is held by a majority of respondents in 18 out of the 27 Member States. In Finland, 62% of respondents believe the EU’s boundaries will probably not go far beyond the limits of the European continent. In the Netherlands, Slovenia, Hungary, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Belgium and Poland the majority of respondents agree that the EU is unlikely to extend past its borders.

84

QF17.4 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030, the European Union…? Will go far beyond the limits of the European continent 85 QA15.2 What is your opinion on each of the following statements? Please tell me for each statement, whether you are for it or against it: Further enlargement of the EU to include other countries in future years. See page 159 of the Standard Report, Part III, The European Union today and tomorrow, Chapter 2.2: Support for EU policies; Further enlargement in the future.

160



QF17.4 For each of the following, please tell me if in your opinion, in 2030, the European Union…? - % EU Will go far beyond the limits of the European continent Y es, probably

No, probably not

DK

43%

37%

20%

44%

40%

16%

Female 42% Age 15-24 46% 25-39 45% 40-54 45% 55 + 39% Education (End of) 1539% 16-19 45% 20+ 43% Still studying 48% Respondent occupation scale Self- employed 48% Managers 47% Other w hite collars 43% Manual w orkers 46% House persons 38% Unemployed 41% Retired 39% Students 48% Internet connection at home Yes 46% No 39% Future of the EU Optimistic 48% Pessimistic 38%

34%

24%

37% 36% 37% 37%

17% 19% 18% 24%

31% 36% 44% 38%

30% 19% 13% 14%

35% 43% 38% 35% 29% 38% 37% 38%

17% 10% 19% 19% 33% 21% 24% 14%

39% 33%

15% 28%

36% 41%

16% 21%

EU27 Sex Male

The socio-economic breakdown reveals some differences that are often due to variations in the level of ‘don’t know’ responses. Interestingly, the longest-educated are almost perfectly divided on this issue, with a slight minority thinking that in 2030, the EU will not go far beyond the limits of the European continent (44%, vs 43%). The respondents’ views on the future of the EU also appear to have a bearing on their answer to this question. The majority of those who are optimistic about the EU’s future are also more likely to think that the EU will go far beyond the limits of the European continent (48%, vs. 36% who think that this will not happen). For those who are more pessimistic about the EU’s future, there is an inversion of the majority view; 41% think it unlikely the EU will go far beyond the limits of the European continent.

161



CONCLUSION

Huge political and economic changes have occurred over recent months, in both the European Union and the rest of the world. In this Eurobarometer 71, conducted in Spring 2009, new questions were designed to examine Europeans’ current opinions on the values to be emphasised to face global challenges,

identity,

attitudes

towards

immigration,

concerns

over

pensions,

employment, and social issues and their ability to plan for the future. Not only do the responses reveal Europeans’ views on the EU today, which are valuable in themselves, but they also prepare the way for the subsequent chapter on the EU in 2030. In summary we have observed the following; Values: •

Europeans want a free society in which solidarity and social equality are of primary importance. They say they would also prefer to set less store by money and material possessions. However, despite these worthy aims, the crisis has had a significant impact on Europeans’ ambitions, particularly with regard to the environment; a majority of Europeans now wish to prioritise economic growth, even if it affects the environment. The opposite opinion was hold by a majority of Europeans in 2008.

Identity: •

Europeans define themselves mainly in terms of national identity, but a growing number feel they are ‘citizens of the world’. This is particularly true for the younger age groups. The chief element of a European identity is, according to European citizens, to have democratic values, and the strongest factor in terms of being European is to ‘feel European’.

Immigration: •

With

a

worsening

economic

environment,

attitudes

towards

immigration have became a little more negative since November December 2006, particularly in terms of the perceived effects of immigration on insecurity and unemployment. However, a majority of respondents continue to think that the presence of people from other ethnic groups enriches the cultural life of their country (stable compared to November - December 2006).

162



Pensions: •

Europeans’

expectations

of

their

pensions

have

declined

since

November December 2006. The greatest concern about pensions is in Eastern European countries, whereas respondents from the Nordic countries remain relatively unconcerned. Rather than work for longer to address the pensions

problem,

Europeans

would

prefer

to

increase

their

pension

contributions. This view is held also by people who are currently not working. Care of the elderly: •

More than a third of EU citizens are either paying, or believe they will pay, for the care of their parents in the future. This figure shows a significant increase from the figure recorded two years previously. At the same time, there has been a marked fall in the percentage of people believing they will receive support should they need it. Here the impact of the economic crisis is clear: it has increased worries and doubts in Europeans’ minds.

National welfare system: •

About half of the Europeans polled think their welfare system’s coverage is adequate. However, only a minority consider their system could serve as a model for other countries – although this number has increased slightly since 2006. However, there are concerns for the future of these systems, as many Europeans consider their national social welfare system 'too expensive'.

Job market: •

There is considerable concern over the current job market. The majority of Europeans are clear that finding a job is difficult, even with good qualifications. Consequently, job security is of primary importance when seeking employment and respondents said it was necessary to change jobs frequently to stay in work.

Planning for the future: •

Just over a third of Europeans say they are only able to ‘live day by day’. Those who are more financially comfortable, on the other hand, tend to be able to look to the long-term future.

163



Societal expectations and hopes in the European Union in 2030: •

There are some areas where hopes are greater than expectations such as the environment, solidarity in society, a better work-life balance and more time to spend with the family. This also applies to gender equality.

•

Most Europeans would prefer greater individual freedom, yet they expect more order. This may be linked to the fast pace of technological change and, perhaps, a greater sense of control from the authorities or the State.

•

Europeans wish for far more gender parity in society than they expect to be achieved.

The European Union in 2030: •

Europeans are quite confident about the future of the EU in 2030: they think it will be a leader in terms of the economy, especially thanks to the euro, and diplomacy. They are more divided when thinking about the future limits of the EU.

Europeans also consider that in the European Union in 2030: National welfare system: •

A small majority of Europeans think that their national welfare system will probably not provide enough coverage in 2030. A stronger majority (close to 6 out of 10 Europeans) agree that it will ‘probably be too expensive’. There are very large variations between countries on this topic.

Job market: •

More than half of the Europeans are worried about the future of the job market in 2030: they think it will be difficult to find a good job in their country even with high qualifications. European public opinion is much more divided when it comes to job mobility in 2030: if a relative majority of Europeans think that changing jobs every few years will be necessary to stay in employment, an important minority disagree with this statement.

164

TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS

European Commission

STANDARD EUROBAROMETER 71.3 TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS

Between the 12th of June and the 6th of July 2009, TNS Opinion & Social, a consortium created between Taylor Nelson Sofres and EOS Gallup Europe, carried out wave 71.3 of the EUROBAROMETER, on request of the EUROPEAN COMMISSION, Directorate-General for Communication, “Research and Political Analysis”. The STANDARD EUROBAROMETER 71.3 covers the population of the respective nationalities of the European Union Member States, resident in each of the Member States and aged 15 years and over. The STANDARD EUROBAROMETER 71.3 has also been conducted in the three candidate countries (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community. In these countries, the survey covers the national population of citizens and the population of citizens of all the European Union Member States that are residents in these countries and have a sufficient command of the national languages to answer the questionnaire. The basic sample design applied in all states is a multi-stage, random (probability) one. In each country, a number of sampling points was drawn with probability proportional to population size (for a total coverage of the country) and to population density. In order to do so, the sampling points were drawn systematically from each of the "administrative regional units", after stratification by individual unit and type of area. They thus represent the whole territory of the countries surveyed according to the EUROSTAT NUTS II (or equivalent) and according to the distribution of the resident population of the respective nationalities in terms of metropolitan, urban and rural areas. In each of the selected sampling points, a starting address was drawn, at random. Further addresses (every Nth address) were selected by standard "random route" procedures, from the initial address. In each household, the respondent was drawn, at random (following the "closest birthday rule"). All interviews were conducted face-to-face in people's homes and in the appropriate national language. As far as the data capture is concerned, CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interview) was used in those countries where this technique was available.

European Commission

ABBREVIATIONS BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY CY (tcc) LV

COUNTRIES

INSTITUTES

Belgium Bulgaria Czech Rep. Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Rep. of Cyprus Turkish Cypriot Comm. Latvia

TNS Dimarso TNS BBSS TNS Aisa TNS Gallup DK TNS Infratest Emor TNS MRBI TNS ICAP TNS Demoscopia TNS Sofres TNS Infratest Synovate

983 1.023 1.094 1.012 1.521 1.006 1.006 1.000 1.002 1.038 1.036 505

15/06/2009 12/06/2009 13/06/2009 12/06/2009 17/06/2009 12/06/2009 17/06/2009 12/06/2009 16/06/2009 12/06/2009 13/06/2009 12/06/2009

07/07/2009 22/06/2009 26/06/2009 02/07/2009 03/07/2009 02/07/2009 02/07/2009 02/07/2009 03/07/2009 30/06/2009 01/07/2009 30/06/2009

POPULATIO N 15+ 8.786.805 6.647.375 8.571.710 4.432.931 64.546.096 887.094 3.375.399 8.691.304 38.536.844 46.425.653 48.892.559 638.900

KADEM TNS Latvia TNS Gallup Lithuania TNS ILReS TNS Hungary MISCO TNS NIPO Österreichisches Gallup-Institut TNS OBOP TNS EUROTESTE TNS CSOP RM PLUS TNS AISA SK TNS Gallup Oy TNS GALLUP TNS UK Puls TNS PIAR

500 1.008

16/06/2009 12/06/2009

06/07/2009 30/06/2009

143.226 1.444.884

1.016 530 1.004 500 1.000

12/06/2009 17/06/2009 13/06/2009 12/06/2009 12/06/2009

25/06/2009 06/07/2009 01/07/2009 29/06/2009 03/07/2009

2.846.756 388.914 8.320.614 335.476 13.017.690

1.015 1.000 1.010 1.012 1.012 1.065 1.012 1.068 1.352 1.000 1.005

12/06/2009 18/06/2009 16/06/2009 12/06/2009 12/06/2009 13/06/2009 16/06/2009 14/06/2009 12/06/2009 15/06/2009 12/06/2009

03/07/2009 02/07/2009 03/07/2009 23/06/2009 28/06/2009 30/06/2009 06/07/2009 03/07/2009 28/06/2009 30/06/2009 26/06/2009

7.004.205 32.155.805 8.080.915 18.246.731 1.729.298 4.316.438 4.353.495 7.562.263 50.519.877 3.734.300 47.583.830

1.008 30.343

12/06/2009 12/06/2009

21/06/2009 06/07/2009

1.648.012 453.722.173

LT LU HU MT NL

Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands

AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK HR TR

Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom Croatia Turkey Former Yugoslav Rep. of Macedonia

MK TOTAL

N° INTERVIEWS

TNS Brima

FIELDWORK DATES

For each country a comparison between the sample and the universe was carried out. The Universe description was derived from Eurostat population data or from national statistics offices. For all countries surveyed, a national weighting procedure, using marginal and intercellular weighting, was carried out based on this Universe description. In all countries, gender, age, region and size of locality were introduced in the iteration procedure. For international weighting (i.e. EU averages), TNS Opinion & Social applies the official population figures as provided by EUROSTAT or national statistic offices. The total population figures for input in this post-weighting procedure are listed above. Readers are reminded that survey results are estimations, the accuracy of which, everything being equal, rests upon the sample size and upon the observed percentage. With samples of about 1,000 interviews, the real percentages vary within the following confidence limits:

Observed percentages

10% or 90%

20% or 80%

30% or 70%

40% or 60%

50%

Confidence limits

± 1.9 points

± 2.5 points

± 2.7 points

± 3.0 points

± 3.1 points