Evaluation of potential trophic impacts from hake (M. merluccius) emergence in the North Sea. 3rd International Symposium Effects of Climate Changes on World’s Ocean
Xochitl Cormon1 , A. Kempf2 , K. Rabhi1 , M. Rouquette1 , Y. Vermard3 , M. Vinther4 and P. Marchal1 1 IFREMER,
Channel and North Sea Fisheries Research Unit, Boulogne-sur-Mer 2 Thünen
3 IFREMER, 4 Denmark
Institute, Institute of Sea Fisheries, Hamburg Unit of Fisheries Ecology and Modelling, Nantes
Technical University, DTU Aqua, Charlottenlund
21-27 March 2015, Santos, Brazil
Introduction
Species presentation
Saithe and hake in the North Sea
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Introduction
Species presentation
Saithe and hake in the North Sea
−2
−1
0
1
2
Saithe Hake Q1 Hake Q3
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Standardized spawning stock biomass trends (ICES, 2013; Baudron and Fernandes, 2014)
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Introduction
Species presentation
Saithe and hake in the North Sea
? COMPETITION ?
−2
−1
0
1
2
Saithe Hake Q1 Hake Q3
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Standardized spawning stock biomass trends (ICES, 2013; Baudron and Fernandes, 2014)
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Introduction
State of the knowledge
Step by step towards competition theory (Link and Auster, 2013) Since early 2000’s in the North Sea: Opposite trends of population abundance.
1. Opposite trends
−2
−1
0
1
2
Saithe Hake Q1 Hake Q3
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
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2010
2012
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Introduction
State of the knowledge
Step by step towards competition theory (Link and Auster, 2013) Since early 2000’s in the North Sea: Opposite trends of population abundance.
2. Spatial overlap, Cormon et al., 2014 60
1.0
60
1.0
58
0.8
58
0.8
10
−0.2
−0.4
0
5
10
60
0.4
58
0.2 0.2 0.0
56 0
54
5
0.4
Increase of hake probability of presence and of saithe-hake overlap.
0.0 5
10
−0.2
−0.4
52
56 54 52
0.0
0.0
52
54
0.2
0.2
56
52
0
0.6 0.4
0.4
58
54
60
56
0.6
0
5
10
Winter and Summer, (2007-2012) - (1991-1996)
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Introduction
State of the knowledge
Step by step towards competition theory (Link and Auster, 2013)
3. Drivers of probable habitats, Cormon et al., 2014 Hake Winter
Overlap
Summer
Winter
NS NS
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Summer
Since early 2000’s in the North Sea: Opposite trends of population abundance. Increase of hake probability of presence and of saithe-hake overlap. Importance of temperature and Norway pout presence for probable habitats.
Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Introduction
State of the knowledge
Step by step towards competition theory (Link and Auster, 2013) 4. Occurences of prey in winter 1.00
Since early 2000’s in the North Sea: Opposite trends of population abundance.
re su lts Species
Gadiforms
Other
0.00 H
Norwaympout
Othermfish
in 0.25
Legend
Clupeiforms
ar y
0.50
Pr el im
Percentagemobserved
0.75
S
Study in progress
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Increase of hake probability of presence and of saithe-hake overlap. Importance of temperature and Norway pout presence for probable habitats. Potential diet overlap.
Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Introduction
State of the knowledge
Step by step towards competition theory (Link and Auster, 2013) Since early 2000’s in the North Sea: Opposite trends of population abundance. 5. Limiting resources? Last but not least condition to assume competition
Increase of hake probability of presence and of saithe-hake overlap. Importance of temperature and Norway pout presence for probable habitats. Potential diet overlap.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Introduction
Objectives
Limiting resources? Saithe-Hake-Norway pout threesome
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Introduction
Objectives
Limiting resources? Saithe-Hake-Norway pout threesome
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Pros Main shared prey
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Introduction
Objectives
Limiting resources? Saithe-Hake-Norway pout threesome
Pros Main shared prey NS distribution overlapping
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Introduction
Objectives
Limiting resources? Saithe-Hake-Norway pout threesome
Pros Main shared prey NS distribution overlapping Bottom-up processes only
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Introduction
Objectives
Limiting resources? Saithe-Hake-Norway pout threesome
Pros Main shared prey NS distribution overlapping Bottom-up processes only Assessed species
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Introduction
Objectives
Limiting resources? Saithe-Hake-Norway pout threesome
Pros Main shared prey NS distribution overlapping Bottom-up processes only
Cons Simplistic
Assessed species
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Introduction
Objectives
Limiting resources? Saithe-Hake-Norway pout threesome
Pros Main shared prey NS distribution overlapping Bottom-up processes only
Cons Simplistic
Assessed species Research question What are the potential impacts of hake on saithe trough Norway pout availability in the North Sea?
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Materials and methods
SMS
Materials and methods SMS, Lewy and Vinther, (2004)
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Materials and methods
SMS
Materials and methods SMS, Lewy and Vinther, (2004)
Hake?
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Materials and methods
SMS
Materials and methods SMS, Lewy and Vinther, (2004)
Hake? WGSAM 2014 key-run
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Materials and methods
SMS
Materials and methods SMS, Lewy and Vinther, (2004)
Hake? WGSAM 2014 key-run
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Bottom-up?
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Materials and methods
SMS
Materials and methods SMS, Lewy and Vinther, (2004)
Hake? WGSAM 2014 key-run
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Bottom-up? Cormon et al., in prep
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Materials and methods
Parametrization and scenarios
Parametrization and scenarios Parametrization
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Materials and methods
Parametrization and scenarios
Parametrization and scenarios Parametrization Stock-recruitment: Ricker (saithe & Norway pout), deterministic.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Materials and methods
Parametrization and scenarios
Parametrization and scenarios Parametrization Stock-recruitment: Ricker (saithe & Norway pout), deterministic. Saithe growth: VBGF and linear relationship between K and Norway pout average on two years
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Materials and methods
Parametrization and scenarios
Parametrization and scenarios Parametrization Stock-recruitment: Ricker (saithe & Norway pout), deterministic. Saithe growth: VBGF and linear relationship between K and Norway pout average on two years Consumption rates: Allometric relationship with mean weight.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
5/8
Materials and methods
Parametrization and scenarios
Parametrization and scenarios Parametrization Stock-recruitment: Ricker (saithe & Norway pout), deterministic. Saithe growth: VBGF and linear relationship between K and Norway pout average on two years Consumption rates: Allometric relationship with mean weight. Fishery mortality: Status-quo from hindcast.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
5/8
Materials and methods
Parametrization and scenarios
Parametrization and scenarios Parametrization Stock-recruitment: Ricker (saithe & Norway pout), deterministic. Saithe growth: VBGF and linear relationship between K and Norway pout average on two years Consumption rates: Allometric relationship with mean weight. Fishery mortality: Status-quo from hindcast. Hindcast & Forecast: 1974-2013 & 2014-2065.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
5/8
Materials and methods
Parametrization and scenarios
Parametrization and scenarios Parametrization Stock-recruitment: Ricker (saithe & Norway pout), deterministic. Saithe growth: VBGF and linear relationship between K and Norway pout average on two years Consumption rates: Allometric relationship with mean weight. Fishery mortality: Status-quo from hindcast. Hindcast & Forecast: 1974-2013 & 2014-2065. Scenarios Growth Hake change Period
Status-quo X 1 2011-2013
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Growth O 1 2011-2013
Extreme O 1.10 2014-2025
Hake emergence trophic impacts
Moderate O 1.05 2014-2025
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Results and discussion
Results
Status-quo results Hake in number of individuals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Abundance at Q1 (1E3)
80
60
40
20
● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●●● ● 1975
2000
Years Scenarios
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2025
2050
● status−quo
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Results and discussion
Results
Status-quo results Saithe spawning biomass SSB at Q1 (1E3 tons)
600
400
200
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1975
2000
Years Scenarios
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2025
2050
● status−quo
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Results and discussion
Results
Status-quo results Saithe recruitment Recruitment at Q1 (1E3)
400
300
200
100
0 1975
2000
Years Scenarios
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2025
2050
status−quo
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Results and discussion
Results
Status-quo results
TSB at Q1 in (1E3 tons)
Norway pout biomass
●
1200
800
400
● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1975
2000
Years Scenarios
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2025
2050
● status−quo
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Results and discussion
Results
Status-quo results
Hake in number of individuals
1.5
●
20
● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●● ● 1975
2000
Age 0
Abundance at Q1 (1E3)
60
40
Norway pout predation mortality
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
80
1.0 Years
2025
2050
0.5
● status−quo
Scenarios
0.0 1.5
●
200
M2
● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1975
0.5 0.0
●
400
1.0
2000
Years
2025
1.0
2050
0.5
● status−quo
Scenarios
1.5 Age 2
SSB at Q1 (1E3 tons)
600
Age 1
Saithe spawning biomass
0.0 1.5
Age 3
1.0
Norway pout biomass TSB at Q1 in (1E3 tons)
0.5 ●
1200
800
400
● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1975
2000
Years Scenarios
2025
2050
0.0 1975 Predators Fulmar Her.Gull
2000
GBB.Gull R.radiata
G.gurnards W.mackerel
2025
Years N.mackerel W.horsemac
H.porpoise Hake
2050
Cod Whiting
Haddock Saithe
Razorbill Greyseal
● status−quo
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Results and discussion
Results
Scenarios comparison Hake in number of individuals Abundance at Q1 (1E3)
200
150
100
50
0
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● 1975
2000 Scenarios
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Years
● status−quo
2025
growth
2050 extreme
Hake emergence trophic impacts
moderate
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Results and discussion
Results
Scenarios comparison
SSB at Q1 (1E3 tons)
Saithe spawning biomass
200
150
●●● ● ●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ● ●●●●●● ● ● ●●
100 2020
2030 Scenarios
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● status−quo
2040
2050
Years growth
extreme
Hake emergence trophic impacts
2060
moderate
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Results and discussion
Results
Scenarios comparison
TSB at Q1 in (1E3 tons)
Norway pout biomass 600
400
●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●● ●● ●● ●
200
0 2020
2030 Scenarios
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● status−quo
2040
2050
Years growth
extreme
Hake emergence trophic impacts
2060
moderate
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Results and discussion
Results
Scenarios comparison
Hake in number of individuals
Norway pout predation mortality
Abundance at Q1 (1E3)
200
0
150
100
0
●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● 1975
2000 Scenarios
● status−quo
Years
2025
growth
1
2
3
1.5
status−quo
50
1.0
2050 extreme
0.5
moderate
0.0 2.0 growth
1.5
Saithe spawning biomass
1.0
150
M2
0.0 9 extreme
SSB at Q1 (1E3 tons)
0.5
200
●●● ● ●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ● ●●●●●● ● ● ●●
6
100 2020
2030 Scenarios
● status−quo
2040
2050
Years growth
extreme
2060
3
moderate
0 8
4
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2060
2050
2040
2030
extreme
2020
growth
[email protected]
2060
Years
2050
● status−quo
2050
2040
Scenarios
2040
2030
Predators Fulmar GBB.Gull G.gurnards N.mackerel Hake Whiting Saithe Greyseal Her.Gull R.radiata W.mackerel H.porpoise Cod Haddock Razorbill
0 2030
2020
Years
200
2020
2060
2050
2040
TSB at Q1 in (1E3 tons)
0 2030
400
2
●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●● ●● ●● ●
2020
600
moderate
6
Norway pout biomass
2060
moderate
Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Results and discussion
Conclusion and prospects
What do we know and what’s next? Conclusions Lower saithe biomass estimates with growth.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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Results and discussion
Conclusion and prospects
What do we know and what’s next? Conclusions Lower saithe biomass estimates with growth. Dominance of saithe and hake in predation on Norway pout.
[email protected]
Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
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Results and discussion
Conclusion and prospects
What do we know and what’s next? Conclusions Lower saithe biomass estimates with growth. Dominance of saithe and hake in predation on Norway pout. Impact of hake on Norway pout and on saithe biomass.
[email protected]
Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
8/8
Results and discussion
Conclusion and prospects
What do we know and what’s next? Conclusions Lower saithe biomass estimates with growth. Dominance of saithe and hake in predation on Norway pout. Impact of hake on Norway pout and on saithe biomass. Limits Simplistic.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
8/8
Results and discussion
Conclusion and prospects
What do we know and what’s next? Conclusions Lower saithe biomass estimates with growth. Dominance of saithe and hake in predation on Norway pout. Impact of hake on Norway pout and on saithe biomass. Limits Simplistic. Uncertainties.
[email protected]
Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
8/8
Results and discussion
Conclusion and prospects
What do we know and what’s next? Conclusions Lower saithe biomass estimates with growth. Dominance of saithe and hake in predation on Norway pout. Impact of hake on Norway pout and on saithe biomass. Limits Simplistic. Uncertainties. Prospects Stochastic recruitment.
[email protected]
Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
8/8
Results and discussion
Conclusion and prospects
What do we know and what’s next? Conclusions Lower saithe biomass estimates with growth. Dominance of saithe and hake in predation on Norway pout. Impact of hake on Norway pout and on saithe biomass. Limits Simplistic. Uncertainties. Prospects Stochastic recruitment. Fishery scenarios.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
PICES 2015, 27 March
8/8
The End
The End... (: Travel support :)
Baudron, A. and Fernandes, P. (2014). "Adverse consequences of stock recovery: European hake, a new “choke” species under a discard ban?" Fish and fisheries. doi: 10.1111/faf.12079. Cormon, X., Loots, C., Vaz, S., Vermard, Y. and Marchal, P. (2014). "Spatial interactions between saithe (Pollachius virens) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the North Sea." ICES Journal of Marine Science. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsu120. Cormon, X., Ernande B., Kempf, A., Vermard, Y., and Marchal, P. (in prep). "Bottom-up processes in the North Sea, an investigation of North Sea saithe growth characteristics in relation to environmental factors." ICES (2013). "Saithe in Subareas IV, VI and Division IIIa." Report of the Working Group on the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak (WGNSSK) CM/ACOM:13:565-609. Lewy P. and Vinther M. (2004) "SMS, A stochastic age-length-structured multispecies model applied to North Sea and Baltic Sea stocks." Link J. and Auster P. (2013) "The challenges of evaluating competition among marine fishes: who cares, when does it matter, and what can we do about it?" Bulletin of Marine Science: 89(1):213-247.
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Hake emergence trophic impacts
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