Fire history, fire regimes, and climate change

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Andrew D. Bailey, Robert Mickler, and Cecil Frost in Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, comps. 2007. The fire environment—innovaYons, management, and policy; ...
Fire  history,  fire  regimes,  and  climate  change  –  

integra5ng  informa5on  for  management  and  planning*   William  T.  Sommers,  Stanley  G.  Coloff  and     Susan  G.  Conard   George  Mason  University,  Fairfax,  Virginia  

Josh  McDaniel  

Wildland  Fire  Lessons  Learned  Center   Wednesday,  August  4,  2010:  9:00  AM     335,  David  L  Lawrence  ConvenIon  Center     COS  51  -­‐  ConservaIon  Ecology  &  Ecosystem  Management   95th  Ecological  Society  of  America  Annual  MeeIng   PiPsburgh.  PA  

*  A  Joint  Fire  Science  Program  Project  

Atmospheric   Process  &  Change  

Ecosystem   Process  &  Change  

Fire   Process  &  Change   Fire  History  

Fire  Regimes  

Ecosystem  Classifica5on    &  Deriva5ve  Tools  

Fire  History:     The  chronological  record  of  the     occurrence  of  fire  in  an  ecosystem     Fire  Regimes:     Fire  regime  refers  to  the  nature  of  fire  occurring   over  long  periods  and  the  prominent  immediate   effects  of  fire  that  generally  characterize  an   ecosystem,  including:     fuel  consump5on  and  fire  spread  paGerns;       intensity;       severity;     frequency;  and     seasonality  

Fire  is  a  widespread  ecosystem  disturbance  process  that  is   global  in  scope,  with event  driven     local  to  regional     resource  and  societal  impacts    

European  Space  Agency  IONIA  Web  Map  Server   ASTER  Ac5ve  Fire  Catalogue  1  January  –  31  December  2005    

The  frequency,   severity  and  extent   of  wildland  fires   are  largely  a   func5on  of   interac5ons   between   vegeta5on  and   atmospheric   processes  

1◦  ×1◦  global  map  of  average  annual   area  burned  (percentage  of  cell   burned)  for  1960  to  2000  

Dominant  land  cover  from  the   Global  Land  Cover  for  the  year  2000     Flannigan  et  al  2009:  Implica5ons  of  changing  climate  for  global  wildland  fire.  JWF   LePage  et  al  Global  Ecology  and  Biogeography,  19,  575–588,  ©  2010  Blackwell  Publishing  Ltd      

Fire  ac5vity  and   management   costs  have   increased   significantly   over  the  last   few  decades  

Sommers,  W.T.  (2008)  The  Emergence  of  the  Wildland-­‐Urban  Interface  Concept.     FOREST  HISTORY  TODAY  |  FALL  2008      

There  is   growing   evidence  that   these   increases   relate  to   measured   changes  in   climate   variables   Annual  frequency  of  large   (>400  ha)  western  U.S.   forest  wildfires  (bars)  and   mean  March  through   August  temperature  for   the  western  United  States   (line)    A.  L.    Westerling  et  al.,    Science    313,  940  -­‐943  (2006)          

Panel  on  Advancing  the  Science  of  Climate  Change      Large  forest  fires  have  increased  four–fold  over  the  past  30  years   in  the  American  West      Climate  change  will  lead  to  an  increase  in  ….  wildfire    

Panel  on  Adap5ng  to  the  Impacts  of  Climate  Change     Managing  ecosystems  for  adapta5on  to  climate  change  also  

requires  more  consistent  use  of  currently  recognized  best   prac5ces  …  and  keeping  disturbance  at  acceptable  scales  

Panel  on  Informing  an  Effec5ve  Response  to  Climate  Change      Demand  for  informa5on  to  support  climate-­‐related  decisions  …   with  plans  and  ac5ons  …  to  adapt  to  the  impacts  of  climate   change.  

U.S.  federal  resources  within  the  four  principal   ecosystem  types  are  vulnerable  to  a  wide  range   of  effects  from  climate  change,  including   physical,  biological,  and  economic  and  social   effects.    

2007  

Physical  effects  of  climate  change  include   ……    increased  wildland  fire  ac5vity  ….. Resource  managers  are  uncertain  about  what   ac5ons,  if  any,  they  should  take  to  address  the   current  effects  of  climate  change  and  to  plan   for  future  effects  on  their  resources.    

GAO  recommends  that  the  Secretaries  of  Agriculture,  Commerce,  and  the   Interior  develop  guidance  incorpora5ng  agencies’  best  prac5ces,  which   advises  managers  on  how  to  address  climate  change  effects  on  the  resources   they  manage  and  gather  the  informa5on  needed  to  do  so.     Climate  Change  and  Federal  Lands  Workshop  convened  by  GAO,  in  collaboraIon  with  the  NaIonal   Academies’  Board  on  Atmospheric  Sciences  and  Climate,  on  November  2  and  3,  2006    

How  should  we  provide  informa5on  to  support   climate-­‐related  planning  and  ac5on  decisions  to  adapt   to  the  impacts  of  climate  change,  considering    Climate  change  is  leading  to  wildfire  increases      Ecosystems    should  be  managed  for  adapta5on  and   keeping  disturbance  at  acceptable  scales      Currently  recognized  best  prac5ces  should  be   consistently  used  

The  Joint  Fire  Science  Program  (JFSP)  is  interested  in  sponsoring  projects  that   synthesize  exis2ng  informa2on  in  a  form  that  is  useful  to  land  managers.   The  goal  is  to  present  informaFon  on  topics  of  importance  to  land  managers   that  have  a  sufficient  base  of  exisFng  knowledge  to  support  a  synthesis  and   management  interpretaFon.   JFSP  is  interested  in  synthesis  proposals  on  the  following  topics:  

Fire  history  and  climate  change  –  An  examina5on  of  our   knowledge  of  historical  fire  regimes,  an  assessment  of   how  this  informa5on  can  help  us  understand  poten5al   fire  regimes  in  the  face  of  climate  change,  and  an   interpreta5on  of  how  this  informa5on  can  help  shape   fire  and  fuel  management  decisions.  

One  step  in  synthesizing  exis2ng  informa2on  in  a  form  

that  is  useful  to  land  managers  

Fire  History  and  Climate  Change  (FHCC)  Project     &   Fire  and  Climate  Science  (FACS)  Project   Collabora5ve  Workshop*   The  Wildland  Fire  Lessons  Learned  Center   9  –  11  February  2010  

A  Cross  Sec5on  of  Managers,  Planners  and   Scien5sts  with  Differing  Ecosystem, Organization and Job Experiences   Structured  around  12  Ques5ons   *Workshop  Report  Available  on  Request  

Fire  History  and  Climate  Change  (FHCC)  Project  Workshop  Report   Small  Sample  of  Par5cipant  Views  

The  audience  for  the  synthesis  should  include  natural  resource   managers  as  well  as  fire  managers   The  fundamentals  of  climate  change  need  to  be  included  -­‐-­‐-­‐   managers  need  a  set  of  concepts  for  discussions  regarding  land   management  decisions   GCM  basics  are  fundamental  and  need  to  be  included  along   with  basic  informa5on  on  how  the  global  climate  works  

Fire  History  and  Climate  Change  (FHCC)  Project  Workshop   Par5cipant  Views  

Fire  history  is  the  data  and  historical  fire  regimes  are  the   synthesis  and  narra5ve,  the  aggregate  of  the  data   The  synthesis  will  help  managers  to  iden5fy  how  to  apply  scarce   resources  in  building  resiliency  in  certain  systems  and  to   recognize  which  systems  might  receive  less  resources   The  Bailey  Ecodivision  level  provides  a  useful  overarching   organiza5onal  framework  

Wildland  Fire  &  Climate  Change     Informa2on   What  we  Know  

What  we  Understand  

What  we  Expect  

Atmospheric Chemistry

System Components 387

Arrhenius - 1896

Ecosystems

Atmospheric Dynamics

Keeling – Mauna Loa 1958

Bjerknes 1904

Richardson1922

Charney & Phillips- 1950s

Bailey Ecoregions - 1995 Koppen - 1931

Holdridge – 1947

Holdridge Life Zones

Given  the  large  amount  of  available       Wildland  Fire  &  Climate  Change  Informa5on   The  challenge  is  to  provide  managers  with  synthesized  informa5on      focused  on  fire  and  climate  change,        involving  mul5ple  atmospheric  and  ecosystem  process  scales,      in  a  placed-­‐based  format      they  can  use  for  planning  and  communica5on  purposes     Bailey’s  Ecosystem  Classifica5on  system  is  a  well  suited  format:      Deriving  from  Koeppen  Climate  Classifica5on        Well  Known  and  Invested  in  by  the  User  Community      Well  Linked  to  the  LANDFIRE  Group  of  Geospa5al  Fire  Products  

Bailey  Ecosystem  Division  and  Province  Scales

Division   Scale  

Province   Scale  

Scales   Climate  &  Weather   Climate  Change  

Climate   Variability   (e.g.  El  Niño)   Event   (Synop5c)  

Synthesize    Fire  History  and   Climate   Knowledge   Over    a  Range  of  Scales   ~   Use  Fire  Regimes  and   Climate  Change   Projec2ons   to  BeOer  Inform   Natural  Resource   Managers  and  Planners  

Fire  Management   Fuels   (evolu5on  of     Vegeta5on)     Seasonal  to    decadal  drought     Event  

Fire  Regime  Types  Based  on  Kuchler’s     Poten5al  Natural  Vegeta5on  Types   Brown,  James  K.;  Smith,  Jane  Kapler    2000.    Wildland  fire  in  ecosystems:  effects  of  fire  on  flora.      Gen.  Tech.   Rep.  RMRS-­‐GTR-­‐42-­‐vol.  2.  Ogden,  UT:  U.S.  Department  of  Agriculture,  Forest  Service,  Rocky  Mountain   Research  StaIon.  257  p.  

Fire  Regime  Condi5on  Class  (FRCC)   hGp://frames.nbii.gov/documents/frcc/documents/FRCC+Guidebook_2008.10.30.pdf  

Changes  in  the  global  distribu5on  of  fire-­‐prone  pixels     under  the  A2  (mid-­‐high)  emissions  scenario  

2010–2039    

2040–2069    

2070–2099    

FIRENPP  

FIREnoNPP  

Krawchuk  MA,  Moritz  MA,  Parisien  M-­‐A,  Van  Dorn  J,  Hayhoe  K  (2009)  Global  Pyrogeography:  the  Current   and  Future  DistribuIon  of  Wildfire.  PLoS  ONE  4(4):  e5102.  doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102  

Qualita5ve  schema5c  of  global  fire  ac5vity  through  5me,  based  on   pre-­‐Quaternary  distribu5on  of  charcoal,  Quaternary  and  Holocene  charcoal   records,  and  modern  satellite  observa5ons,  in  rela5on  to  the  percentage  of   atmospheric  O2  content,  parts  per  million  (ppm)  of  CO2,   David  M.  J.  S.  Bowman,  et  al.  Science  324,  481  (2009)    

Reconstruc5ons  of   biomass  burned,  fire   frequency,  and  woody   biomass  levels  in  North   America   A)  CO2  ice-­‐core  record  from   Antarc5ca   B)  NGRIP18O  ice  record   C)  Reconstruc5on  of  biomass   burned   D)  Reconstruc5on  of  fire   frequency   E)  Trends  in  woody  biomass   F)  biomass  burning  (black)  and   woody  biomass  (green)   trends   G)  Number  of  dates  per  50-­‐ year  interval   Marlon  et  al,  PNAS    February  24,  2009    vol.   106    no.  8    2519–2524  

Large  vs.  small  wildfire  areas    

Recurrence  intervals    102  km  Fires  

Characterizing  wildfire  regimes  in  the  United  States    Bruce  D.  Malamud,  James  D.  A.  Millington,  and  George  L.  W.  Perry    4694–4699    PNAS     March  29,  2005    vol.  102    no.  13  

Bailey  Ecosystem  Division  and  Province  Scales North   Carolina   Division   Scale  

Province   Scale  

Arizona  

Selected  curves  for   pollen  grains  and   spores  from  Horse   Cove  Bog  

Horse  Cove  fire   history  over  the  past   4000  years  

Pre-­‐Columbian  Na5ve  American  Use  of  Fire  on  Southern  Appalachian  Landscapes  Author(s):  Hazel  R.  Delcourt  and  Paul  A.  Delcourt   Source:  Conserva5on  Biology,  Vol.  11,  No.  4    

1765  land  grant  survey   southeastern  Dare  County    

Color-­‐coded  topographic  map     for  Dare  County  

PresePlement  Fire  Regime  and  VegetaIon  Mapping  in  Southeastern  Coastal  Plain  Forest  Ecosystems   Andrew  D.  Bailey,  Robert  Mickler,  and  Cecil  Frost  in  Butler,  Bret  W.;  Cook,  Wayne,  comps.  2007.  The  fire   environment—innovaIons,  management,  and  policy;  conference  proceedings.  26-­‐30  March  2007;  DesIn,  FL.   Proceedings  RMRS-­‐P-­‐46CD    

PreseGlement  vegeta5on  map  

Fire  regime  maps,  using  cool  colors  for   long  fire  intervals  &    warm  colors  for   more  frequent  fire  intervals  

PresePlement  Fire  Regime  and  VegetaIon  Mapping  in  Southeastern  Coastal  Plain  Forest  Ecosystems   Andrew  D.  Bailey,  Robert  Mickler,  and  Cecil  Frost  in  Butler,  Bret  W.;  Cook,  Wayne,  comps.  2007.  The  fire   environment—innovaIons,  management,  and  policy;  conference  proceedings.  26-­‐30  March  2007;  DesIn,  FL.   Proceedings  RMRS-­‐P-­‐46CD    

Ecoprovinces  of   the  western   United  States    

LiPle  et  al,  Ecological   ApplicaIons,  19(4),  2009,   pp.  1003–1021  

Over  410,000  fire  reports  from  the  USFS,  BLM,  NPS,  and  BIA   were  compiled  and  combined  in  a  dataset  of  monthly  fire-­‐start   counts  and  acres  burned  on  a  1o  by  1o  grid  

ProjecIon  of  Bailey’s   ecosystem  divisions  for  the   western  United  States  onto  a   1°  °—  1°  lat–lon  grid  

Average  log10  acres  burned  by  month  for   each  grid  cell  

Westerling  et  al  :  CLIMATE  AND  WILDFIRE  IN  THE  WESTERN  UNITED  STATES.  BAMS  2003  

Number  of  fire-­‐scar  sites  (chronologies)  in   the  Southwest  recording  fire  dates  in  each   year,  1700  to  present,  out  of  a  total  of  63   sites.    

Fire-­‐scar   collec5ons   and  PDSI   reconstruc5on   grid  points  

Swetnam  and  Betancourt  Journal  of  Climate  1998  

Conclusion   Our  Fire  History  and  Climate  Change  Synthesis  integrates  fire  history,   fire  regime,  and  climate  change  informa5on  in  formats  designed  for  use   by  managers  in  their  climate  change  planning  efforts     We  characterize  atmospheric  scales  of  importance  to  fire  as  the  climate   change,  climate  variability,  and  event  scales,  rela5ng  to  long-­‐term   evolu5on  of  vegeta5on,  seasonal  to  decadal  drought,  and  fire  events     We  employ  Bailey's  vegeta5on  classifica5on  at  various  ecosystem  scales   to  organize  the  fire  history  and  fire  regime  informa5on  for  place  based   usage,  as  a  bridge  to  LANDFIRE  components,  such  as  the  Fire  Regime   Condi5on  Class  (FRCC),  and  as  a  link  to  GCM-­‐based  climate  projec5ons