Nov 10, 2015 - Finally, homes are selling slightly more quickly in the City (53 days) than in the County (59 ..... New h
NOVEMBER 2015 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 2015 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
Immaculate Barrington Colonial with Fenced Yard, Walkout Basement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1730BuckinghamDrive.com
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
# Home Sales
November 10, 2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
% Change ('14 - '15)
October
79
93
112
104
-7.14%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
743
910
914
960
5.03%
Median Sales Price
2012
2013
2014
2015
% Change ('14 - '15)
October
$171,667
$145,000
$189,950
$182,750
-3.79%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
$175,000
$175,000
$178,500
$186,000
4.20%
Average Sales Price
2012
2013
2014
2015
% Change ('14 - '15)
October
$207,720
$172,040
$205,586
$205,573
-0.01%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
$195,738
$198,429
$200,898
$208,919
3.99%
2012
2013
2014
2015
% Change ('14 - '15)
October
89
73
64
63
-1.56%
Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)
90
67
65
56
-13.85%
Median Days on Market
Home sales in October 2015 slowed down a bit (-7%) compared to last October -but set a relatively fast pace for October compared to 2012 and 2013. Despite the slightly slower sales in October, the total number of home sales in 2015 is still 5% higher during the first ten months of the year than the number of home sales seen
logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
in the first ten months of last year. Furthermore, median sales prices are a good bit above (+4%) last year -- and average sales prices (+4%) have also increased yearover-year. Finally, it is taking 14% less time to sell a home this year (median of 56 days) as compared to last year when the median was 65 days on the market.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
# Home Sales
2014
2015
% Change
2014
2015
% Change
October
39
34
-12.82%
73
70
-4.11%
Year-To-Date
302
315
4.30%
612
645
5.39%
. Rockingham County
logo.indd 1
City of Harrisonburg
7/28/2008 3:10:30
Median Sales Price
2014
2015
% Change
2014
2015
% Change
October
$170,000
$168,000
-1.18%
$204,000
$191,000
-6.37%
Year-To-Date
$170,000
$166,000
-2.35%
$185,000
$195,000
5.41%
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Median Days on Market
2014
2015
% Change
2014
2015
% Change
October
66
57
-13.64%
62
63
1.61%
Year-To-Date
57
53
-7.02%
71
59
-16.90%
As is consistently the trend, the majority of the home sales are in Rockingham County. That said, when looking at 2015 YTD, we are seeing an increase in both Rockingham County home sales (+5.39%) and City of Harrisonburg home sales (+4.3%). Prices, however, are increasing in the County (+5.41%) while they are declining slightly in
the City (-2.35%). Finally, homes are selling slightly more quickly in the City (53 days) than in the County (59 days), though both of those metrics are falling. The County wins the “most improved locality” award, with a larger improvement in pace and price of sales, as well as time on the market.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 150
2012 2013 2014
134
130
125
Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales
118 110
110
107
104 92
90
81
72 68
70
56
50
104
49 49
72 71 67
111
108
100
97
2015
126 116 111 106
95
104 97 logo.indd 1
92 83
80
74
112
93
96
97
93
7/28/2008 3:10:30
79
72
68
64
58
61
October 2015 104 Home Sales
53
46
41 30
10 JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Monthly home sales have been anything but predictable in 2015, with many summer months (May, June, August) showing stronger sales than any other similar month in recent years -- and with a new all time monthly high (134 sales) in June 2015. That said, the past two months (September and October) have shown slower
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
monthly sales as compared to the same months in 2014. November will be a telling month as to how the entire year will fill out, as home sales plummeted in November during 2013 and 2014. Certainly, we will somehow see more than 68 home sales in November, right??
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1100 1000 900
910
800
817
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
668 615 557 493 438 313 239
685 623 542
743 664 592
734 618
497
500
383
400
400
299
308
462
226
228
152 102 47
146 79 40
154 87 41
2010
2011
2012
This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As is evident, there have been more home sales in the first ten months of 2015 than in the first ten months of any other year in the previous five years. The largest year-
296 192
920
960 856
SEP AUG JUL
808 759 697
JUN
logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
633 591 466 355 248
525 391
MAY APR MAR FEB JAN
281 189 117
49
167 109 56
2013
2014
2015
121
OCT
49
over-year recovery seems to have occured between 2012 and 2013 -- but we are certainly seeing a larger increase in home sales this year (2014 to 2015) than we saw last year (2013 to 2014). At this pace of sales, we will clearly see another year of 1,000+ home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[2] RECENT TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
$200,000 $186,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$185,000
$180,000
$179,000
$179,900
$179,700
$178,000
$176,500
$177,000
$174,700
$174,321
$173,000
$175,000
$174,900
$176,500
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,200
$174,800
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$175,000
$172,700
$172,100
$175,000
$172,375
$172,375
$172,000
$171,708
2,000
$173,000
2,500
$190,000
$180,000
$170,000
Relatively Stable Annualized Median Sales Price
1,133
1,125
1,147
1,144
1,127
1,121
1,118
1,107
$160,000
1,093
1,078
1,081
1,077
1,058
1,030
1,040
1,033
1,022
1,042
1,019
1,074
1,055
1,067
1,067
1,035
1,053
1,042
1,021
1,000
992
968
938
934
908
900
924
890
1,000
1,085
logo.indd 1
1,500
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$150,000
$140,000
$130,000
$120,000
500
$110,000
0 Oct-12
Oct-13
This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. Over
Oct-14
$100,000 Oct-15
the past eighteen months we have seen relatively consistent increases in the annual pace of home sales, which has now risen to 1,125 sales/year. And after many years of median sales prices hovering between $173K and $175K, we have seen steady increases in median pices over the past 12 months up to their current $185,000.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes
$250,000
1,800
+8%
+14%
1,153
1,071 +29%
600
n/a
+4%
$127,700
+6%
$122,900
$116,000
800
$122,588
+17%
829
$149,000
1,000
+14%
$169,900
1,200
-3%
1,248
-6%
+1%
+2%
-23%
+2%
1,067
+2%
logo.indd 1
1,085
+19%
967 -10%
870 -8%
799
+4%
832
+8%
$186,000
-13%
$178,000
-5%
$175,000
n/a
$172,375
+15%
$192,983
1,324
+1%
$169,900
1,400
$179,900
1,438
+14%
$185,000
-14%
1,507
$195,000
1,600
$195,100
1,669 +11%
$200,000
$150,000
7/28/2008 3:10:30
960
900
$100,000
400
$50,000
200
$0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2014) marks the fourth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(+2%) in the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 2% increase in the median sales price. We have now seen increases in the median sales price for three years in a row, though they have been small (+1%, +2%, +2%) increases thus far.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes
1,400
1,000
+16%
+16%
$147,000
+8%
+2%
+8%
$136,000
$122,850
674 600
851
880
+29%
$133,239
800
-2%
+3%
-1%
$200,000
-2%
$190,000
+6%
$192,000
-6%
909
$225,000
$175,000 -12%
$170,000
868
-11% +24%
-4%
$195,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
$184,000
-6%
+8%
$195,000
-4%
$203,000
-1%
$215,000
$223,575
1,200
$226,800
$210,000
$275,000
813
logo.indd 1
798
+1%
819
+21%
-15%
678 -11%
602
-1%
595
+10%
653
+3%
7/28/2008 3:10:30
707
672
$125,000
$75,000 400
$25,000
200
0
-$25,000 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County told two two different stories last year, depending on whether we were evaluating the price or pace of home sales. This past year (2014) marked the fourth year of an increasing pace of home sales with a 1% year-over-year increase to a pace of 819 home sales
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
during the year. Over the past year, however, the median sales price of single family homes dropped an additional 1% to $190,000 -- which follows the previous year’s 2% decline as compared to 2012 levels. Thus far in 2015 we seem to be headed in a better direction, given the YTD median sales price of $200,000.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos
-9%
529
$103,100
444
+47%
302
300
+14%
$118,500
+9%
+5%
+3%
$160,000
$140,000
450 $120,000
logo.indd 1
-36%
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$100,000
289 -7%
268
+49%
228
-24%
204
203
200
-6%
-15%
+10%
$108,200
+6%
$94,600
+9%
$89,000
400
483
$134,950
500
+11%
$151,500
-3%
$151,750
+19%
$137,250
-4%
$132,750
$166,635
+2%
$140,500
+33%
+2%
$180,000
$154,250
-18%
$159,545
600
$163,800
644
$160,850
700
+31%
-12%
+11%
254
+5%
266
253
$80,000
$60,000
+27%
179
155 $40,000 100 $20,000
0
$0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales finally rebounded in 2012 with a 27% increase in the pace of sales. This increase continued in 2013, with an 11% increase in the pace of sales, which was accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
of these properties. This past year (2014) marked an additional increase (+5%) in the pace of these sales (duplexes, townhomes, condos) and an even larger increase (+11%) in the median price of these sales. Thus far in 2015, the median sales price of duplexes, townhomes and condos has remained relatively stable.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers 1000 900
884 883 880 881 883 889 893 899 906 915 921 927 932 932 931 929 924 913 904 893 881 870 860 849 839 831 822 813 801 791 780 770 757 744 730 718 705 694 686 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 625 628 630 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 607 608
Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market
SELLERS
800 700
Huge Over Supply = Buyer's Market
600
400 300
7/28/2008 3:10:30
Approaching a Balanced Market 388 409 409 413 413 409 425 423 438 417 410 401 394 381 379 376 368 374 372 370 352 365 373 386 389 389 397 397 401 403 401 406 407 416 422 416 425 444 432 436 447 447 462 472 477 486 496 503 509 492 507 510 502 496 482 484 491 495 491 504 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 560 554 565 560 558
500
logo.indd 1
BUYERS
200 100
Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
0
(active listings) at any given time. As you can see, our market had an extreme imbalance several years ago, with more sellers in the market than were needed based on the buyers in the market. Over the past four years we have been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Single Family Homes) Median Price
Price/SF $350,000
140
$129
$127
$300,000
$117
$116
120
$101
$87 $73
$76
$227K $224K
$81
Median Price Per SF
$113
$97
100
80
$127
$210K
$103
$123K
$133K $136K
$109
$106
$250,000
logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$215K $203K
$200,000
$195K
$184K
$195K $192K $190K
$170K 60
$105
$200K
Median Sales Price
$150,000
$147K $100,000
40
$50,000
20
$0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. When focusing in on 2013 and 2014 data, we can see that the median sales price was started to shift downward, though the price per square foot was increasing.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF
1,500 - 2,500 SF
2,500+ SF
150
140
$138
$140
$138
130
$127 $123
120
$123
$123 $117
$122 $119
$122
logo.indd 1
$121
$117
$115
$114
$111
$111
$108
110
$104 $105
100
$106
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$105
$107 $104
$101 $103 $96
$97
$101
$98
90
80 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. In looking at 2015 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($101/SF) than homes with less than 1500 SF ($122/ SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Average List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace
2,000
1,750
97.4%
97.7%
97.8%
98.1%
99.1%
99.1%
98.9%
98.0%
98.0%
1,669
100.0%
97.0%
96.0%
96.0%
96.0%
97.0%
97.0%
97.0% 95.0%
1,507
1,500
1,438 1,324 1,248
1,250
1,153
90.0%
logo.indd 1
1,071
1,067 967
1,000
1,085 960
900
870
829
799
7/28/2008 3:10:30
85.0%
832
750 80.0% 500 75.0%
250
0
70.0% 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
escalating. Of note, last year we almost returned to that pre-boom level -- given the 97% average during 2014 compared to the 97% - 98% average in 2000 - 2002. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase a bit more.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186 200
180
$105
$139
$136
$129
$128
$129 logo.indd 1
150
7/28/2008 3:10:30
109
$114
$133 $87
80
$99
89 $94
100
$130
121
120
$146
139
$137
140
137
$150
138
140
$144
158
160
100
84
60
41
40
45
51
50
47
50
38
20
0
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales, and
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
declined again in 2014 to 38 sales. The median price per square foot, however, now seems to have stabilized around $130/SF in 2013, increased in 2014 to $136/SF, and seems to be headed even higher in 2015. Given the 50 sales thus far in 2015, we are starting to see some recovery in new construction this year.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[4] BUYER ACTIVITY Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 160 145
143 140
135 126
123 114 116
120
107 100
96
93
90
107
103 96
91
109 102
108
98
94
91
118
114
86
logo.indd 1
76
80
77
75
70
69
68
58
60
118
112
7/28/2008 3:10:30
82
76 63
56
40
20
Annual Pace: 1,199 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,141 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,175 contracts
The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. This year has been quite promising during many months of 2015, with strong increases in year-overyear buyer activity in the first four months of 2015. That trend of year-over-year
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
0
increases has not continued through the remainder of 2015, and we are seeing a slower pace of signed contracts (1,175 in the past 12 months) now than we were seeing a year ago (1,199 in the previous 12 months) despite year-over-year increases in sales. This likely means that more contracts are making it successfully to closing.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels (end of month)
800
675 679
700
705
692 688 636
635 600
693
608
584 529
555 550
623
604
659 653 644 635 636 640
577 538 542 541
500 logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
400
300
200
100
0
Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which be a big, significant,
weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been relatively stable over the past year, with a tiny 1% year over year increase.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes
Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos
600
260
520 500
529
549
539 535 527 501
490
478
460
451 402
423
477
240
445
440
412 382
400
487 481 485 493
391
220
405 381 logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
200 300
178
182 180
172 166
200
155 148
145
157
161
150 144
138
100
133 127
132
0
This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). Of interest, the number of single family homes for sale has increased slightly by 3% from this same time of year last year -- while the number of townhouses,
166
164 158
156
160 151
157
154
151
160
147 140
120
duplexes and condos on the market for sale has decreased by 7%. As is evident, inventory levels are now starting to decline as we enter into the Fall market -- and we will likely see further decreases over the next few months, particularly in single family home inventory.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
600
483 488 480 481 474 479
500
441 400
367
438
432
423
407
461
454
388 382
383 384
478
477 454 449 448
+5% YOY
396 372 logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
300
200
194
177
172 166 162
185
201 200
210 217 212 207 182
172 150
160
169
181 185
198
189 190 186 188 163
-10% YOY 100
0
Trends in inventory level currently seem to, for the most part, transcend the City / County divide. When looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a moderate decline (-10%) over the last year in the number of properties for sale. In the County, however, ther has been a slight increase (+5%) in the number
of homes for sale. Despite relatively small changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[6] DAYS ON MARKET Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings
> 1 year, 81, 7% > 1 year, 77, 12% < 30 days, 123, 19% 6 - 12 months, 141, 13% 6 - 12 months, 104, 16% < 30 days, 407, 36%
logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
30 - 59 days, 85, 14%
3 - 6 months, 214, 19%
60 - 89 days, 72, 11% 3 - 6 months, 179, 28% 60 - 89 days, 113, 10%
30 - 59 days, 168, 15%
Median Days On Market: 58
Median Days On Market: 109
Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, approximately 1 out of 3 homes (36%) that sells goes under contract less than 30 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that go under contract in the next 60 days (15%) and
we find that more than half of homes (51%) that sell go under contract within the first 60 days of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
60
52 49
50
51
51
51
50
48
48
49
50
50
51
52
52
53
52
52
53
53
52
54
54
55
54
54
+5% YOY
40 logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
30
22
22
23
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
20
21
21
20
9.8
9.8
9.8
20
21
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
25
9.6
9.5
8.7
8.2
+20% YOY
20
10
0
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.7
6.5
7.0
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.1
4.1
3.8
7.3
7.9
8.0
4.0
3.8
3.7
9.3
3.3
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past two years, except
3.3
3.7
3.9
10.3 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.8 10.7
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.5
5.1
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
-16% YOY +62% YOY
for in the $300K - $400K price range, were we have seen a 16% decline in home sales. The most significant increase seen over the past 12 months has been in the $400K+ price range, where we have seen a 62% increase in home sales.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
350
317 300
308 287
285
274
301
309
321
312
319
316 294 290
285
321 300 299 302
287
311 313
-6% YOY
269 272 265
253 250
200
172
169 155
50
79 70
77
188
77
60
7/28/2008 3:10:30
190
180
172
171
177
182 178
173 172
157
-9% YOY
134 135
75
59
105
102
87 74 81
67
logo.indd 1
158 155
107 100
201 203
155 139
150
180
190 192
67
88
93
92
97 95
90
89
83
89 77
71
88 71 57 63
54
58 57
70
68
63
67
53 52
73
83
83
80
80
84
71
79
80
73
75
+13% YOY -10% YOY
0
Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The lowest price range (Under $200K) has seen a relatively small downward adjustment (-6%) in inventory levels over the past year, while the highest price range ($400K+)
has actually seen a slight increase (+13%) in the number of homes for sale. All four price ranges are likely to see inventory levels continue to decline over the next few months as we move into and through the Fall market.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k
$200k - $300k
$300k - $400k
$400k +
30
25
25
25
24
23
24
22 20
20 17
15
12
11
14
14
11
11
15 13
6
7
6
6
5
14
6
6
6
5
6
17 14
11
7
logo.indd 1
8
8
9
9 10
6
6
6
6
15
17
7/28/2008 3:10:30
17 15
14
15
-31% YOY
12
10
9
9
10 9
6
14
14
12
12
10
8
17
16
16
15
5
21
6
7
6
6
8
8
8
6
6
5
7
5
5
5
5
7
9
8
8
8
6
8
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
5
8
7
9
7
7
6
6
+8% YOY -23% YOY +1% YOY
0
With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 15 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought each
month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and in the past 12 months we have only consistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre
$120,000
450
$99,900
408 400
$100,000
$76,500
350
$36,900
$30,500
$26,000
165
$32,208
$58,900
$53,950
$54,900
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$56,500
$54,500
$56,600
$55,000
201
200
150
247
$54,500
250
logo.indd 1
$42,000
261
$80,000
$59,900
304 300
Stability 111
100
85
$40,000
Growth
83
75 58
64
62
63
2010
2011
2012
$60,000
84
71
$20,000
50
0
$0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may finally be increasing again, as we have seen approximately 80 sales per year for the past two years, after four years in a row of approximately 60 lot sales per year. The median sales price of these
2008
2009
2013
2014
2015
lots under one acre also appears to be stabilizing between $55,000 and $60,000. If these trends continue, we may see as many as 85 lot sales in 2015, and we may start to see the median price of lots increase again, perhaps approaching $60,000 this year.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre
$100k + 11 listings 7% $80k - $100k 19 listings 12%
$0 - $40k 32 listings 20%
logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$60k - $80k 38 listings 24% $40k - $60k 58 listings 37%
158 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $54,925
Despite the fact that only 84 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2014, there are a remarkable 158 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($54,925) is relatively close to the 2014 median sales price of $53,950. Given last year’s 84 lot sales, if no other lots
were listed for sale, it would take 1.9 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, more than nearly one half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2014) median sales prices.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more
logo.indd 1
107
$14,267
$13,240
$14,981
$15,000
$15,964
$25,000
$9,932
$9,535
$8,333
$8,245
120
$8,234
140
$12,003
160
$15,000
$17,713
168
$13,957
180
$30,000
$20,833
$24,184
200
$20,000
$15,000
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$10,000
100
87 80
60
77
76
$5,000
83 70
58
57
51
44
42 40
58 49
56
$0
-$5,000
28 -$10,000
20
-$15,000
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County peaked in 2013 at 70 sales, and then declined again 2014 to only 58 sales. The median price per acre of these lots with over 1 acre continued to fall in 2014, to a price of $9,932 per acre. This is far (far!) below the peak of $24,184 per acre that was seen back
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
in 2007. Looking at 2015, it seems that we are likely to see approximately 60 sales of this property type this year, and the median sales price per acre seems poised to increase this year as compared to 2014 -- and may bounce back up to 2009-2012 levels of median price per acre.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[8] LOTS AND LAND Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more
$100k + 18 listings 9% $50k - $100k 18 listings 9% $40k - $50k 10 listings 5%
$0 - $10k 46 listings 24%
logo.indd 1
7/28/2008 3:10:30
$30k - $40k 18 listings 9%
$20k - $30k 34 listings 18%
$10k - $20k 50 listings 26%
194 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,232 / Acre
Despite the fact that only 58 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2014, there are a remarkable 194 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $10,000 - $12,000 per acre, the median list price of the 194 parcels for sale is currently $20,232 per
acre. Given last year’s 58 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 3.3 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS
Recorded Trustee Deeds
1,800 1,669 1,600
1,507 1,438
1,400
1,324 1,248
1,200
1,153 1,071
1,085
logo.indd 1
1,013
1,000
960
936 829
7/28/2008 3:10:30
864
816
794
758
800
600
400 270 200 56
91
63
75
70
86
97
93
118
177
223
252
222
163
123
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2013 and 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac
6.00%
logo.indd 1
Oct-13
Oct-14
3.76%
3.86%
3.84%
3.98%
4.02%
3.87%
3.68%
3.69%
3.80%
3.87%
3.97%
3.98%
4.20%
4.10%
4.12%
4.14%
4.12%
4.40%
4.33%
4.37%
4.32%
4.48%
4.29%
4.10%
4.32%
4.51%
3.00% Oct-12
3.66%
3.40%
3.57%
3.51%
3.53%
3.35%
3.50%
3.32%
4.00%
3.41%
4.50%
3.81%
5.00%
4.31%
4.46%
5.50%
Oct-15
7/28/2008 3:10:30
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
4.0%
4.4%
5.5%
5.0%
5.4%
5.0%
5.1%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
4.4%
4.8%
5.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.3% 4.1%
5.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.4%
4.7%
5.3%
5.0%
5.3%
4.50%
5.6%
Not Seasonally Adjusted
5.9%
6.1%
5.7% 4.6%
5.6%
5.4%
4.9%
5.00%
5.1%
5.50%
5.2%
6.00%
5.3%
6.50%
5.5%
Unemployment Rate
4.00% 3.50% 3.00% Sep-12
Sep-13
As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen steadily (though slowly) declining mortgage interest rates over the past two years despite some increases over the past seven months. The current average rate of 3.76% is among the lowest rates we have seen in the past several years. The second graph above illustrates
Sep-14
Sep-15
trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past four years, declining from 5.5% (in 2012) to 4% (in 2015). A low local unemployment rate and low mortgage interest rates continue to help our local housing market remain stable.
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
[10] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker
Scott earned a B.A. (2000) and M.Ed. (2002) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, elevated photography equipment, property websites for each of his listings and Matterport 3D Showcase. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 2007, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgApps.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com and many others. Scott is a member of the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, serves on the Board of Directors for the Explore More Discovery Museum, and is the co-founder of TakeThemAMeal.com. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, camping, playing volleyball and attending JMU sporting events.
Questions? Contact Scott anytime.... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile)
[email protected]
Everything You Need To Know About the Home Buying Process BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
Local Online Real Estate Resources
Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 2003 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Scott provides detailed, professional and responsive service to all of his clients, whether they are buying their first home or have been through many housing transitions. Since 2010, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/ Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.
Marketing Strategies for Successing Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
logo.indd 1
Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
Published on November 10, 2015 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period 01/01/2000 - 10/31/2015.
7/28/2008 3:10:30