Feb 6, 2012 ... Honda Odyssey ..... 30. 40. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009.
2010. 2011 ..... –Diagram of seating positions and belt use (87%).
Highway Safety: What Does the Future Hold? www.iihs.org
North Carolina Highway Safety Symposium Winston-Salem, NC ● February 6, 2012 Anne T. McCartt, Ph.D.
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,
founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and property damage — from crashes on the nation's highways.
The Highway Loss Data Institute,
founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
www.iihs.org
Where are we? Location of IIHS/HLDI and Vehicle Research Center
Washington, DC
Arlington
Charlottesville
Virginia Virginia www.iihs.org
Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950-2011 60,000
80
deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 55,000 60
motor vehicle deaths 50,000 45,000
40
40,000
32,367
20
35,000 11.0 per billion
30,000
1950
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2000
05
10
0
www.iihs.org
Making safer vehicles
www.iihs.org
40 mph frontal offset crash test 1959 Chevrolet Bel Air and 2009 Chevrolet Malibu
www.iihs.org
Front crashworthiness ratings Promote stronger occupant compartment (safety cage)
www.iihs.org
Frontal offset ratings and fatality risk Driver deaths in frontal crashes per million vehicle registrations, 1993-2004, by crashworthiness rating
60
• Good designs have 46 percent lower fatality risk than Poor designs
40
• Acceptable or Marginal designs have 33 percent lower fatality risk than Poor designs
20
0
Good
Acceptable
Marginal
Poor
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Percent reduction in risk of driver death in left side impacts by driver-only rating Vehicles equipped with side airbags 0
-20
-40
-60
-80
good vs. poor
acceptable vs. poor
marginal vs. poor www.iihs.org
Requirements for TOP SAFETY PICK award G
evaluation in frontal crashworthiness test
G
evaluation in side crashworthiness test
G
evaluation in rear crashworthiness test
G evaluation in roof strength test Availability of electronic stability control (federal requirement on 2012 and newer vehicles)
www.iihs.org
2012 TOP SAFETY PICK winners, as of December 2012 Large cars
Audi A6 Buick LaCrosse Buick Regal BMW 5 series Cadillac CTS sedan Chrysler 300 Dodge Charger Ford Taurus Hyundai Azera Hyundai Equus Hyundai Genesis Infiniti M37/M56 Lexus GS Lincoln MKS Mercedes E class Saab 9-5 Toyota Avalon Volvo S80
Midsize cars
Acura TL Acura TSX Audi A3 Audi A4 sedan BMW 3 series sedan Buick Verano Chevrolet Malibu Chevrolet Malibu Eco Chrysler 200 Dodge Avenger Ford Fusion Hyundai Sonata Kia Optima Lexus ES Lincoln MKZ Mercedes C class Subaru Legacy Subaru Outback
Toyota Camry Toyota Prius V Volkswagen CC Volkswagen Jetta sedan Volkswagen Jetta SportWagen Volkswagen Passat Volvo C30 Volvo S60
Small cars
Acura ILX Chevrolet Cruze Chevrolet Sonic Chevrolet Volt Dodge Dart Ford Focus 4-door Honda Civic 4-door Honda CR-Z Honda Insight Hyundai Elantra Kia Forte Kia Soul Lexus CT 200h Mazda 3 sedan/hatchback Mini Cooper Countryman Mitsubishi Lancer Nissan Cube Nissan Juke Nissan Leaf Scion FR-S Scion tC Scion xB Scion xD Subaru BRZ Subaru Impreza Subaru XV Crosstek Toyota Corolla Toyota Prius
Toyota Prius c Volkswagen Golf Volkswagen GTI
Ford Flex GMC Terrain Honda Pilot
Minicar
Hyundai Santa Fe Infiniti EX35 Jeep Grand Cherokee Kia Sorento Lexus RX Lincoln MKT Lincoln MKX Mercedes GLK Mercedes M class Saab 9-4X Subaru Tribeca Toyota Highlander Toyota Venza Volvo XC60 Volvo XC90
Fiat 500 Ford Fiesta Honda Fit Nissan Versa Sedan Toyota Yaris Hatchback
Minivans
Chrysler Town & Country Dodge Grand Caravan Honda Odyssey Toyota Sienna Volkswagen Routan
Large pickups
Ford F-150 Honda Ridgeline Toyota Tundra
Large SUVs
Buick Enclave Chevrolet Traverse GMC Acadia Volkswagen Touareg
Midsize SUVs
Acura MDZ Acura RDX Audi Q5 BMW X3 Cadillac SRX Chevrolet Equinox Dodge Durango Dodge Journey Ford Edge Ford Explorer
Small SUVs
Ford Escape Honda CR-V Hyundai Tucson Jeep Patriot Kia Sportage Mazda CX-5 Mitsubishi Outlander Sport Subaru Forester Volkswagen Tiguan
www.iihs.org
Crashworthiness challenges continue
www.iihs.org
116 real-world frontal crashes with fatal or serious injuries of belted occupants in IIHS good-rated vehicles underride with rear of large truck 5%
override 2% low severity 11%
all underride 14%
center 19%
small overlap 24%
full width 6% moderate overlap 24%
www.iihs.org
Examples of real-world underride guard failures
www.iihs.org
Crash testing shows guard performance differences 35 mi/h center impact with 2010 Chevrolet Malibu
In 2011, IIHS petitioned for upgrades to federal rear underride guard standard • Increase force requirements • Attachments should remain intact during quasi-static testing • Extend guard protection to full width of trailer • Test guards while attached to trailers • Re-evaluate practicality of lower ground clearance requirement
• Determine which current exemptions can be dropped, e.g., single unit trucks – many already have some type of guard
www.iihs.org
Small overlap crashes
www.iihs.org
116 real-world frontal crashes with fatal or serious injuries of belted occupants in IIHS good-rated vehicles
override 2%
low severity 11%
center 19%
underride 14%
full width 6% moderate overlap 24%
small overlap 24%
www.iihs.org
IIHS announces new small-overlap crash test program August 14, 2012
www.iihs.org
Luxury/near luxury cars – 11 models
Acura TL
Acura TSX
Audi A4
BMW 3 series
Infiniti G
Lexus ES
Lexus IS
Lincoln MKZ
Mercedes C class
Volkswagen CC
Volvo S60 www.iihs.org
Midsize luxury/near luxury small overlap ratings
www.iihs.org
Midsize moderately priced cars – 16 models
Chevrolet Malibu
Dodge Avenger
Ford Fusion
Honda Accord 2-door
Honda Accord 4-door
Hyundai Sonata
Kia Optima
Mazda 6
Nissan Altima
Nissan Maxima
Subaru Legacy
Suzuki Kizashi
Toyota Camry
Toyota Prius v
Volkswagen Jetta
Volkswagen Passat
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Midsize moderately priced cars small overlap ratings
www.iihs.org
Vehicle damage in small overlap crashes
Primary structural member completely missed
www.iihs.org
Good structural rating Suzuki Kizashi
www.iihs.org
Poor structural rating Toyota Prius v
www.iihs.org
Stable airbag interaction – Honda Accord 4-door
www.iihs.org
Minimal airbag protection – Toyota Camry
www.iihs.org
2013 TOP SAFETY PICK Plus winners, January 2013 Good or Acceptable performance in small overlap test
• Acura TL
• Nissan Altima 4-door
• Chrysler 200 4-door
• Subaru Legacy
• Dodge Avenger
• Subaru Outback
• Ford Fusion
• Suzuki Kizashi
• Honda Accord 2-door
• Volkswagen Passat
• Honda Accord 4-door
• Volvo S60
• Kia Optima
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Crash avoidance is the new frontier
www.iihs.org
Google autonomous car
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Effects on crash risk Percent change in crash rates for vehicles with standard ESC vs. optional or no ESC, updated May 2010 20
all crashes
fatal injury
0
-20
-40
-60
all crashes multiple-vehicle single-vehicle
-80 www.iihs.org
Wave of new technologies Radar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, infrared, cameras, GPS
www.iihs.org
Systems available on vehicles sold in United States number of makes 2008
2013
forward collision warning
8
27
lane departure warning
6
20
side view assist
6
29
adaptive headlights
16
23
www.iihs.org
Success of crash avoidance technology depends on answers to 5 questions • Relevance – What is size and nature of crash problem being addressed? – Is present technology capable of addressing the problem? • Acceptability – Will drivers use and accept technology? • Intuitiveness – What kinds of information will elicit right responses from drivers? • Adaptation – How will driver behavior change in response to technology? www.iihs.org
Annual crashes potentially prevented or mitigated Based on 2004-08 crash totals all
injury
fatal
forward collision warning
1,165,000
66,000
879
lane departure warning
179,000
37,000
7,529
side view assist
395,000
20,000
393
adaptive headlights
142,000
29,000
2,484
total unique crashes
1,866,000
149,000
10,238
percent of crashes
32%
21%
31% www.iihs.org
Effectiveness of forward collision avoidance systems
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
HLDI analyses involving optional features Published July, 2012
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Percent differences in property damage liability claim frequency with and without forward collision warning By manufacturer 20% Acura Volvo
Mercedes 0%
-20%
without autobrake
with autobrake
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Analyses of insurance claims data involving other crash avoidance technologies
• Adaptive headlamps (pivot beam in the direction of travel) appear to be reducing crashes with other vehicles • Lane departure warning does not appear to be reducing crashes
www.iihs.org
Do Volvo owners use and accept crash avoidance technologies?
www.iihs.org
Percent of owners who use Adaptive Cruise Control 100%
80%
60%
40%
didn't know never sometimes always
20%
0%
on freeways, expressways, other high-speed roads
on lower speed roads with traffic signals or stop signs www.iihs.org
Percent of owners who drive with crash avoidance systems on 100%
80%
60%
didn't know 40%
never sometimes
20%
0%
always
Distance Alert
Forward Collision Warning
City Safety
Lane Departure Warning www.iihs.org
Percent of owners who report system activations 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Forward Collision Warning
Forward Collision Auto Brake/ City Safety
Lane Departure Warning
Driver Alert Control
www.iihs.org
Percent of owners who report activations perceived as false or unnecessary 50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Forward Collision Warning
Forward Collision Auto Brake/ City Safety
Lane Departure Warning www.iihs.org
Experiences with warnings
Percent of owners who find warning….
Forward Collision Warning buzzer
Forward Collision Warning flashing light
Lane Departure Warning chime
useful
97
98
96
annoying
24
10
33
www.iihs.org
Percent of owners who believe systems helped prevent a crash 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Forward Collision Warning
Forward Collision Auto Brake/ City Safety
Lane Departure Warning (vehicle in another lane)
Lane Departure Warning (running off road) www.iihs.org
Percent of owners who want system on next vehicle Among all owners with the system 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Adaptive Cruise Control
Distance Alert
Forward Collision Warning with Auto Brake
Pedestrian Detection
City Safety
Drive Alert Control
Lane Departure Warning www.iihs.org
Conclusions • Despite some annoyance, most owners leave systems on, although fewer do for lane departure warning • Most owners want systems on next car • Some owners report systems have prevented crashes
• Some owners report safer driving habits with systems, and a few report less safe driving habits • Researchers should continue to study driver experience with the systems as they become available on more vehicles
www.iihs.org
Testing forward collision warning and autonomous emergency braking systems
www.iihs.org
Sample test measurements to characterize forward collision avoidance system performance • Impact - yes/no
• Velocity change due to auto braking • Warning timing – Audible and visual
• Ambient temperature and lighting
www.iihs.org
Vehicle to slower moving target testing
www.iihs.org
Vehicle to decelerating moving target testing
www.iihs.org
Vehicle to pedestrian testing
www.iihs.org
Covered test track rendering Covered test track area: 300’ x 700’ steel and tensile fabric structure
www.iihs.org
Covered test track rendering Covered test track area: 300’ x 700’ steel and tensile fabric structure
www.iihs.org
Benefits of crash avoidance technology will occur gradually
www.iihs.org
New vehicle series with electronic stability control U.S., by model year 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1995
1997
1999
2001
standard
2003
optional
2005
2007
2009
not available www.iihs.org
Registered vehicles with electronic stability control U.S., by calendar year 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1995
1997
1999
2001
standard
2003
optional
2005
2007
2009
not available www.iihs.org
Registered vehicles with electronic stability control, actual and predicted U.S., by calendar year 100%
80%
60%
40%
actual predicted
20%
0%
1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040 www.iihs.org
Summary and next steps • Potential applicability of crash avoidance systems is huge • Owner survey data indicate some annoyance with the technology, but most owners are leaving it active • Vehicles with City Safety show significant reductions in collision claims compared with similar non-equipped vehicles • Forward collision warning systems, especially with auto-brake, are reducing claims • Will drivers adapt behavior in ways to offset benefits of the technology? – Some indication in surveys, but effectiveness studies are needed – Some adaptation may be slow to appear
www.iihs.org
Intersection crashes
www.iihs.org
7,296 deaths at U.S. intersections in 2011 Distribution by type of traffic control
signal light 33%
no traffic control 30%
other 5%
stop sign 32%
www.iihs.org
Conversion of stop sign and traffic signal intersections to roundabouts:
• 40% reduction in all crashes • 80% reduction in injury crashes
• 90% reduction in fatal & incapacitating injury crashes
www.iihs.org
If 10 percent of signalized intersections in the United States were converted to roundabouts
• Approximately 43,000 crashes prevented in 2011 including: – 170 fatal crashes
– 28,000 injury crashes
• Vehicle delays reduced by more than 900 million hours • Fuel consumption reduced by more than 600 million gallons
www.iihs.org
Progress in building roundabouts January 2013 WA
NH
ND
MT
VT MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA NE IL NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
NJ
MO
WV KY
CA AZ
NC
AR
NM
DC
SC MS
TX
CT
MD
TN
OK
DE
VA
RI
AL
LA
GA
FL
AK
50 or more 10-49 fewer than 10
HI
www.iihs.org
In 2011 on US roads, about 150,000 red-lightrunning crashes caused about 118,000 injuries and about 700 deaths. Over half of the deaths were pedestrians, bicyclists and people in other vehicles hit by red light runners
www.iihs.org
Percent difference in actual fatal crash rates during 2004-08 in 14 large cities with red light cameras vs. expected rates without cameras 0
-10
-20
-30
red light running fatal crashes
fatal crashes at intersections with signal lights www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Percent difference in odds of red light violations at intersections in Arlington, Virginia, with cameras vs. expected odds without cameras 0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
violations ≥ 0.5 sec after red
violations ≥ 1 sec after red
violations ≥ 1.5 sec after red www.iihs.org
Percent who favor using red light cameras Telephone survey in 14 cities with red light cameras, 2011 100
80
60
40
20
0
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
US communities with red light cameras 1992-2013 600 500 400 300 200
100 0
1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
www.iihs.org
Vehicle speed
www.iihs.org
Percent of U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths involving speeding as a contributing factor, 2002-12 40
30
20
10
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
www.iihs.org
Maximum authorized speed limits January 2013 WA
NH
ND
MT
VT MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA NE
IL NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
NJ
MO
WV KY
CA AZ
NC
AR
NM
DC
SC MS
TX
CT
MD
TN
OK
DE
VA
RI
AL
LA
GA
55 mph
60 mph FL
AK
65 mph 70 mph 75 mph
HI
80 mph 85 mph www.iihs.org
Reductions in proportion of vehicles exceeding speed limit by more than 10 mph after camera enforcement Relative to comparison sites (IIHS, 2003, 2008a, 2008b) 0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
Scottsdale, AZ Loop 101 highway
Montgomery County, MD residential streets
District of Columbia city streets www.iihs.org
Opinions of residents during speed camera enforcement programs IIHS, 2008a, 2008b Montgomery County, Maryland
Scottsdale, Arizona
think speeding is a problem on targeted roads
74%
79%
aware of speed cameras
60%
90%
favor speed camera use on targeted roads
62%
77%
www.iihs.org
Reviews of international research show that speed camera enforcement reduces injury and fatal crashes
• 8-50% reduction in injury crashes in Cochrane Review (Wilson et al., 2010) 28 studies
the vicinity of camera sites
• 11-44% reduction in fatal or serious injury crashes in the vicinity of camera sites
• 17-58% reduction in fatal or serious injury crashes over wider areas
www.iihs.org
U.S. communities with speed cameras 1995-2013
120
80
40
0
1995
2003
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
www.iihs.org
Alcohol-impaired driving
www.iihs.org
Percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers with BACs at or above specified levels 1982-2011 50
40
30
20 0.08 g/dL or more
10
0
0.15 g/dL or more
1982
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 www.iihs.org
Despite effectiveness of sobriety checkpoints, many U.S. communities don’t conduct them regularly • Median reduction of 20 percent in alcohol-related crashes associated with publicized sobriety checkpoints (Elder et al., 2002) • 10 U.S. states prohibit sobriety checkpoints by state constitution or law • Some enforcement agencies believe a large number of officers are required, but small-scale checkpoints can be conducted successfully and safely
www.iihs.org
Traditional sobriety checkpoints
www.iihs.org
Low manpower checkpoints reduced percent of drivers with BACs of 0.05 percent or higher
www.iihs.org
Laws mandating alcohol ignition interlock orders January 2013
WA
NH
ND
MT
VT MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA NE IL NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
MO
WV KY
CA AZ
DC
SC MS
TX
DE
VA
NC
AR
NM
CT
MD
TN
OK
RI
NJ
AL
LA
GA
repeat offenders high-BAC first & repeat offenders FL
AK
all offenders
judicial discretion only
HI
www.iihs.org
Installed interlocks in United States 1986-2012 300,000 250,000 200,000
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
1986
1990
1994
1997
2002
2006
2010
www.iihs.org
Evaluation of Washington state law extending interlock requirement to all offenders • Recidivism reduced by 12 percent among affected offenders, even though only about one-third of offenders used them
• If installation rates had been 100 vs. 34 percent at the end of the study period, recidivism could have been reduced by nearly half • Law change associated with 8.3 percent reduction in singlevehicle late-night crash risk – Publicity about interlock requirements could increase general deterrent effect
www.iihs.org
Potential lives saved in 2010 if BACs of drivers limited to specific maximums BAC < 0.08 g/dl
zero BAC
drivers with multiple DUI convictions within 3 years
104
143
drivers with at least one prior DUI conviction within 3 years
552
785
all drivers
7,082
10,600
www.iihs.org
Broader installation of alcohol detection technology • Current ignition interlocks are not suitable for use in all vehicles – Inconvenient, expensive, require calibration – People who obey alcohol-impaired driving laws – People who don’t drink alcohol
• Need technology that is virtually invisible to driver without sacrificing precision – Accurately detects alcohol impairment (without false positives or false negatives) – Must differentiate between driver and passenger – Technologies in research and development
www.iihs.org
Driver Alcohol Detection System for Safety • Partnership between federal government and automakers
• Phase two – Two technology developers selected to develop system to reliably determine driver’s BAC in 1/3 second
– System must be reliable and durable enough to install in test vehicle by end of two years – Gauging public response to specific technologies
www.iihs.org
Attitudes toward advanced alcohol test technology in all vehicles, if technology shown to be reliable U.S. national telephone survey, 2009
11%
6%
very good idea
36% 19%
good idea not a good idea bad idea don't know
28%
www.iihs.org
Safety belt use
www.iihs.org
Safety belt use in the U.S. has increased in large part due to publicized enforcement and passage of primary belt laws
100
Percent of front seat occupants using belts, 1983-2012
80
60
40
20
0
1983 85
90
95
2000
05
10
www.iihs.org
Percent belt use among fatally injured passenger vehicle occupants 13 and older in U.S., 1990-2011 By calendar year 50
40
30
20 drivers
10
0
passengers
1990
95
2000
05
10 www.iihs.org
Effects of increasing belt use among front seat passengers 13+ years old in 2011 Estimated 85 percent belt use in 2011
target percent belt use
lives saved
percent of all deaths
90%
1,666
5
95%
3,057
9
100%
4,447
14
www.iihs.org
Percent driver belt use in vehicles with and without enhanced reminders 100
90
with without
80
70
60
50
Ford dealers 2002
Honda dealers 2007
observed traffic NHTSA, 2007 www.iihs.org
Can enhanced reminders be used more effectively to boost safety belt use in the U.S.? • Many part-time users forget to buckle up; enhanced reminders can help • Enhanced reminders in 2012 models: 91 percent driver, 77 percent front passenger, 3 percent rear passenger • 2012 highway bill (MAP-21) removes some limits on National Highway Traffic Safety Administration requirements for technology to encourage belt use – Can require chime for more than 8 seconds – Cannot require ignition interlock but can allow automakers to use an interlocks to meet a safety regulation – Must begin rulemaking to require rear seat reminders
www.iihs.org
Top 3 reasons for not using seat belt IIHS survey of 1,218 drivers and passengers, 2012
part-time users
nonusers
short trip (67%)
comfort (77%)
forget (60%)
don’t need belt (54%)
comfort (47%)
don’t like being told what to do (50%)
www.iihs.org
Part-time users’ opinions about belt use interlocks and reminders Percent that agree prevents vehicle from starting
limits speed to 15 mph
generic safety belt reminder
more likely to buckle up
accelerator pedal resistance
acceptable prevents use of entertainment and communication systems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
www.iihs.org
Part-time users’ opinions about effectiveness and acceptability of different intensities of reminders Percent who agree more intense over time
repeats every 15 seconds
repeats every 60 seconds
more intense as car speeds up
more likely to buckle up acceptable
ends after few seconds
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
www.iihs.org
Increasing benefit of front passenger belt reminders • Euro NCAP gives credit to driver and front passenger reminders that meet certain criteria – “Loud and clear” audiovisual signal lasting at least 90 seconds – Signal can be intermittent or continuous
• In Europe, belt use rate in cars with Euro NCAP reminders about 12 percentage points higher than in cars without reminders • Systems meeting Euro NCAP criteria vary widely – Proportion of time chime sounds – Overall duration of chime
• Estimate one-third of enhanced seat belt reminders in the U.S. meet Euro NCAP criteria www.iihs.org
Reminder features parents want IIHS survey of 254 drivers with 8-15 year-olds in back seat, 2012 • 82 percent of all parents want to know when child is unbuckled • Desired reminder information – Diagram of seating positions and belt use (87%) – Flashing or illuminated light or text display (85%) – Chime or buzzer (79%)
• Desired reminder duration – Until children buckle up (63%)
– Several miles into trip (17%) – Brief, ending shortly after vehicle starts (19%)
www.iihs.org
Motorcycles
www.iihs.org
Deaths of motorcyclists and passenger vehicle occupants in the United States 1975-2011 40,000
10,000
8,000
30,000
6,000 20,000 4,000 10,000
2,000
passenger vehicles motorcyclists 0
1975
80
85
90
95
2000
05
10
0
www.iihs.org
Map of motorcycle helmet laws January 2013 WA
NH
ND
MT
VT MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA NE
IL NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
NJ
MO
WV KY
CA AZ
NC
AR
NM
DC
SC MS
TX
CT
MD
TN
OK
DE
VA
RI
AL
LA
GA
universal law partial law FL
AK
no law
HI
www.iihs.org
Fatal crash rates for motorcycles with/without ABS Fatal crashes per 10,000 registrations, U.S., 2003-08 8
37% reduction * 6
4
2
0
without ABS
with ABS
* statistically significant at 0.05 level www.iihs.org
Teenage drivers
www.iihs.org
Fatal crashes per 100,000 people in the U.S. Passenger vehicle drivers, by driver age, 1996-2011 50
40
30 -45%
20
-58%
-62% -36%
10
0
-72%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010 www.iihs.org
IIHS ratings of teenage licensing laws, 2000-11 G
F
M
P
learner’s phase
intermediate phase
entry age
entry age
holding period
night driving restriction
supervised driving certification
passenger restriction duration of restrictions
www.iihs.org
IIHS ratings of graduated licensing laws July 1996, using 2005-2011 rating system WA
NH
ND
MT
VT MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA NE IL NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
NJ
MO
WV
CA
DE
VA
KY
RI CT
MD
TN
OK AZ
NC
AR
NM
LA
DC
SC MS
AL
GA
TX
FL
AK
0 good 2 fair 9 marginal
HI
39 + DC poor
www.iihs.org
IIHS ratings of graduated licensing laws August 2011, using 2005-11 rating system WA
NH
ND
MT
VT MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA NE IL NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
NJ
MO
WV KY
CA AZ
NC
AR
NM
DC
SC MS
TX
CT
MD
TN
OK
DE
VA
RI
AL
LA
GA
FL
AK
36 + DC good 7 fair 7 marginal
HI
0 poor
www.iihs.org
Percent reduction in per capita fatal crash rates of 15-17 year-olds by graduated licensing law rating 1996-2007, compared with states that had laws rated poor
0
-20
-40
good law
fair law
marginal law
www.iihs.org
Percent reduction in teenagers’ crash rates By graduated licensing component
1-year delay in permit age 1-year delay in license age 9 p.m. driving restriction
teen passengers limited to 0 or 1 20 or more hours of practice driving 0
5
10
15
20
fatal crashes per population, 15-17-year-old drivers collision claim frequencies, 16-17-year-old drivers www.iihs.org
Minimum age for intermediate license January 2013 WA
NH
ND
MT
VT MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA NE IL NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
NJ
MO
WV KY
CA
NC
AR
NM
DC
SC MS
TX
CT
MD
TN
OK AZ
DE
VA
RI
AL
LA
GA
FL
AK
14, 3 months 15-15, 6 months 16 16, 3-6 months
HI
17 www.iihs.org
GDL calculator • Estimates effects of given improvements • Overall crash reductions based on improving all five components • “Match the best” feature permits state to see benefits of matching the strongest provisions for all five components
www.iihs.org
Summary • We are entering an exciting period in automotive engineering – Technology that can prevent crashes is becoming a reality – Research must sort out which new technology is helpful
• Reaping the rewards of this technology will be a gradual, slow process • A crash-free environment is not on the immediate horizon; putting people in packages that protect them in crashes remains a top priority • In the near term – over the next ten years – our success in reducing deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes will also depend on other proven countermeasures in highway safety www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, and property damage on the highway
Anne T. McCartt, Ph.D. Senior Vice President, Research
[email protected], 703-247-1534
