Journal of Perinatology (2008) 28, 89–90 r 2008 Nature Publishing Group All rights reserved. 0743-8346/08 $30 www.nature.com/jp
SPECIAL FEATURE
Global notes: how many babies were ever born in the world? What is the hope for future? D Vidyasagar1,2 1
Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA and 2School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Chicago, IL, USA
Journal of Perinatology (2008) 28, 89–90; doi:10.1038/sj.jp.7211891; published online 13 December 2007
Population studies evoke interesting questions. The news of the arrival of the 300 millionth baby in the US in the month of October a year ago1 raised intriguing questions for many. Being neonatologists, we are accustomed to welcome the newborns no matter how small; so we join the celebrations. Others, demographers in particular, have been thinking of some puzzling questions such as the meaning of the population trends and the effects on national economies. Do we know how many babies have been born in the world since the dawn of human existence? That one is, of course, an instinctive thought of a neonatologist and leads to additional queries: when did the human species start its existence? Finally, what is the relevance of population studies to the progress of a nation or the human species? First, how many babies were ever born in the world? The answer can only be speculative.2 Assuming that the human species originated around 50 000 years ago, as some anthropologists believe, and started with a population of two, they ventured to calculate the growth of the population at different intervals of human history. It is estimated that by the year 1 AD the world’s population was 300 million (equivalent to the US population today). Then it took off. It did not reach the one billion mark until 1804. The global population has been rapidly increasing since the beginning of last century. In 1922, it reached the 2 billion mark. It took 118 years to add one billion. One more billion was added in the next 37 years (1922–1959) reaching the 3 billion mark. Forty years later in 1999, the world marked the birth of the 6 billionth baby. With the population reaching the 6 billion mark, there was a commotion among the demographers and policy makers of the world regarding the aftermaths of population explosion. They invoked the Malthusian theory3 of imminent imbalance of people versus available food leading to human miseries and deaths. It was Paul Ehrlich’s famous book Population Bomb in 1960 which set Correspondence: Dr D Vidyasagar, Division of Neonatology (MC 856), Department of Pediatrics, University of Illinois at Chicago, 840 S. Wood Street, Chicago, IL 60612, USA. E-mail:
[email protected] Received 2 October 2007; accepted 23 October 2007; published online 13 December 2007
the stage of impending doom of the world.4 He predicted that the increasing population will lead to doomsday unless something is done about it. Countries around the world rapidly adopted extreme methods to curb the population growth. World bodies encouraged and sometimes wielded undue pressure on developing countries to adopt family planning with the dangling carrot of economic aids as rewards. Some countries adopted Malthusian theory verbatim. China’s policies of one child family are still in force. India also attempted to implement family planning with utmost vigor. Overall, the population growth is curbed more in developed countries than the developing countries. This growth of population leads to the next intriguing question: how many people can the earth sustain considering its limited natural resources? It is estimated that the world cannot tolerate more than 10–15 billion people, although some optimists believe it can tolerate 100 billion people.5 In 1800s, Malthus concluded that since population grows at geometric progression and food grows only at arithmetic progression, large populations will run out of food leading to famines, calamities and extinction of human lives. Although his theories were based on the population growth among the disadvantaged people living on British Isles, the concept was caught up by many economists and policy makers who started to adopt the recommended policies of restricting family size. These policies were further reinforced among many nations with the renewal of fears of increased population. However, the proclamation of impending doom failed to surface. Instead the population continued to grow reaching the 6 billion mark in 1999. It was then projected that it will take only another 14 years, until 2013, to add another billion to the population to reach the 7 billion mark. In the next 15 years, that is by 2028, we will reach 8 billion. The failure of population explosion theory is said to be due to the Green Revolution, which increased the food production far more efficiently and in larger proportion. In addition, rapid ‘technophysio evolution’6 extended the lifespan of humans. Today, population growth may be considered as a basis for economic growth. In the US when the population reached 100 million in 1915, it was heralded as a sign of rising economic and geopolitical clout.7 When the population reached 200 million in 1967, President Johnson made an exuberant speech, whereas the arrival
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of the 300 millionth baby is greeted with muted exuberance lined with skepticism. The reason is that today’s population growth is watched by different experts with variety of interests: the census bureau, the demographers, the economists and the politicians. The pedagogic demographers analyzing the event conclude that the increase in population is mainly contributed by the immigrant population; therefore, the politicians begin to worry about the change in the demography of future voters in their respective constituencies. The economists draw their sordid conclusions regarding GNP/GDP as the population continues to grow year after year. As early as January 2006, it was predicted that the 300 millionth baby would be born to immigrant Hispanic parents in California. Demographers, noted a rapid increase in the Hispanic population in America, and that the US was looking younger than other industrial nations who were rapidly aging and losing work force. How do we count the census? The population clock keeps track of the population growth. It is not an exact science. The clock is set to show the sum of births and deaths every minute. It is calculated based on the number of births per second minus the number of deaths during that period. The balance is the gain in population. The 300 millionth person may not indeed be a baby in the US. It may be a person crossing the border into the US by air, sea or land. But assigning the number to a baby is easier than tracking the crossings of the new immigrants. It is more interesting to watch the clock ticking and to keep guessing who will bear the badge of honor. The US population grew by 13% during 1990, five times than that of the European countries. The problem is not the population itself but its distribution in a country. The population density of the US is 80 per square mile, whereas it is 598 in Germany, 285 in France, 22 in Russia, 895 in India and 353 in China. Clearly, higher the density more the problem. The political controversy of rising population is based on the politics of immigration; neither on population itself nor on the economics. The trends in population growth tell the story of people in the nation and of mankind in the world. It reflects the story of the civilization. Census taking is not merely collecting the numbers; it is understanding the personality of the nation. About 100 years ago, the US population was 100 million (1915). It was largely white and rural. After 100 years the population has tripled. The races and ethnicities have changed, the colors have changed and the demographics of age have changed. The US has become the home for almost all the nationals of the globe, a microcosm of the globeFa united nations outside the United Nations Organization (UNO). The major contribution comes from large population of immigrants, as highlighted during the recent political debates. Hispanics account for half the population growth. Accordingly, the 300 millionth baby was projected to be born to Hispanic immigrant parents living near Los Angeles.8 And it was as close to the target as the landing of the shuttle on the moon. The question arises: how will the 300 millionth baby change our world in the twenty-first century? There is a lot of speculation. In this context, it is important to watch how we are aging in Journal of Perinatology
different parts of the world: getting younger in the demographic sense in China and India and aging in the industrialized countries (Greening in the East and graying of the West!). The graying of the population in some countries is worrisome to national interests. Two countries Russia9 and Japan10 are at the crossroads of demographic depletion leading to the economic and social consequences. In Russia, the demographic crisis is due to increase in mortality over the past decade. The Russian population is expected to decline by a startling 31 million by 2050 from the current 143 million to 112 million! Japan, which had the world’s fifth largest population in 1950 is also facing a population crisis. It is expected to loose 28 million of its people by the year 2050 (From the present 128 million to below 100 million). It is estimated to reach 65 million by the year 2100 if the current trends continue. Some strategists feel these demographic shifts may indeed affect national security issues and lead to geopolitical imbalances in the region. The US population has also been graying during the last several decades. There are more aged and retiring people in the US than those entering the workforce. This demographic trend will increase the dependency ratio in the country. That is, there will be more retired people than earners. This altered dependency ratio has led to the crisis of social security. How can we turn around this social security crisis? We need more people to work for us so that we can retire. We need more young people in the country. So we welcome our 300 millionth baby and wait for another 25 years until he/she joins the work force and contributes to the social security. That is a cause for celebration. Still, it is prudent to pursue the policies of controlled population growth. In this context, it is of value to reflect upon the policies adopted by countries such as China and India, the countries who top the world in population. Now the answer to the first question raised in the opening statement: how many people (children) were ever born on earth in the history of mankind? Using all the assumptions, the demographers calculate that until 2002, total of 106 456 367 669 were ever born on this earth! That is, over 106 billion, give or take 5 to 10 billion.
References 1 USA Today. October 13th, 2006. USA population hits milestone number. 2 Carl Haub. Population reference; how many people have ever lived on earth. www.prb.org/articles/2002. 3 Mathunsion Population Theory. www.economyprofessor.com/economictheories/ Mathunsion-population-theory. 4 Ehrlich Paul R. The Population Bomb 1971. Ballantine Books: New York. 5 Van Den B, Jeroen CJM, Rietveld P. Reconsidering the limits to world population: metaanalysis and meta-prediction. http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-194132/ Reconsidering-the-limits-to-world.html. 6 Fogel RW, Costa DL. A theory of technophysio evolution with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs. Demography 1997; 34: 49–66. 7 USA Today, October 16, 2006. 8 Chicago Tribune. Count down to baby 300th Million. January 18, 2006. 9 Boston Globe. Population decline. July 16, 2006. 10 Smil Vaclav. http://japanfocusorg/products/details/2411.
