Impacts of Pictorial Health Warnings

Impacts of Pictorial Health Warnings

(%)

(%)

0

0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9

-1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

PWO -4.79 -4.66 -4.50 -4.33 -4.14 -3.93 -3.77 -3.57 -3.41 -3.23 -3.05

PWO -0.66 -0.65 -0.64 -0.63 -0.62 -0.61 -0.59 -0.57 -0.55 -0.53 -0.52

PWC -2.40 -2.33 -2.25 -2.17 -2.07 -1.97 -1.88 -1.79 -1.71 -1.61 -1.52

PWC -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.30 -0.30 -0.29 -0.28 -0.27 -0.26

TIO

-5.75 -5.70 -5.60 -5.45 -5.27 -5.03 -4.83 -4.60 -4.41 -4.18 -3.97

TIC

-2.88 -2.85 -2.80 -2.73 -2.63 -2.51 -2.42 -2.30 -2.20 -2.09 -1.98

A

TIO

-0.79 -0.81 -0.81 -0.81 -0.81 -0.80 -0.79 -0.76 -0.74 -0.72 -0.70

TIC

-0.39 -0.40 -0.41 -0.41 -0.41 -0.40 -0.39 -0.38 -0.37 -0.36 -0.35

B

Supplemental Figure 1. Differences in smoking rates between the four anti-smoking scenarios and the reference scenario when net transition was assumed (A) males, (B) females. PWO, pictorial Warning, the optimistic scenario; PWC, pictorial warning, the conservative scenario; TIO, tax increase, the optimistic scenario; TIC, tax increase, the conservative scenario.

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