Manfred Nitsch Latin American Institute Freie ...

Prof. em. Dr. Manfred Nitsch Latin American Institute / School of Business and Economics, Freie Universität Berlin, with the help of Frank Diebel, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China

Monetary vs. Guanxi Economics Confucius meets Lenin, Keynes, and Schumpeter in Contemporary China Berlin, LAI, FUB, BerliSinia Workshop, December 6, 2017

Worksheet: Monetary vs. Guanxi Development Economics • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Questions to be answered before the lecture begins Please mark YES or NO about the following statements. Follow your spontaneous impulse! Compare your answers with those of your neighbours. Introduce yourselves, and let one another know, why you are in favour of this or that statement. Yes No Assertion 1. o

o Socialist economies are ruled by planning authorities and large state-owned enterprises. China has been very successful in planning its economic development in the last three to four decades.

2. o o Schumpeter’s entrepreneur (Unternehmer) is the typical owner of an established firm, who starts an important innovation with disruptive effects leading to “creative destruction” of the business of the Wirte, the noninnovative, normal businesspersons. 3. o o Party cells in every enterprise, administrative or media unit, civil society organization, military unit, university institute and regulatory agency are a means of ideological control and often a source of corruption in all communist-ruled countries. 4. o o At the end of the 1970’s, Deng Xiaoping gave the order to establish a ”Socialist Market Economy“, which opened the way to spectacular economic development through a broad set of village enterprises and private businesses, foreign direct investment and infrastructure projects, mostly coordinated through markets – and the guanxi network of Communist Party secretaries. 5. o o The financial sector intermediates between savers and investors (S=I) so that investment is determined by the amount of savings. 6. o o In the analysis of successful economic development you can always identify three agents: the status-quo user of the resources, the innovative entrepreneur, typically without major property and possessions of his or her own; and the intermediary, who enables the transfer of the resources towards the new, innovative enterprises and the corresponding infrastructure and regulatory institutions.

Yes No Assertion (abridged version of the worksheet) 1. o

o Socialist economies are ruled by planning.

2. o o Schumpeter’s entrepreneur (Unternehmer) is the typical owner of an established firm. 3. o o Party cells are a means of ideological control and often a source of corruption. 4. o o Deng Xiaoping gave the order ”Socialist Market Economy“, which brought about economic development, mostly coordinated through markets – and the guanxi network of Communist Party secretaries.

5. o o The financial sector intermediates; investment is determined by savings. 6. o o Successful economic development with three agents: the Wirt ,status-quo user of the resources, the Unternehmer , entrepreneur without wealth, and the intermediary,, Schumpeter’s Bankier.

Contents 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Money as a real asset (Milton Friedman’s helicopter model) Money as a “means of deferred payment” (Keynes) and the Theory of Finance Credit creation ex nihilo (Schumpeter’s Unternehmer and his banker) Constitution of a functioning monetary economy Guanxi Economy / Economics in China Summary: Accumulation by secondary distribution of capital Abbreviations Literature

The Riddle of China‘s Growth • Three decades of high growth with Deng Xiaoping’s “Socialist Market Economy” • None of textbook “prerequisites“ fulfilled • Unique path of “transition/transformation“: Looking for special Chinese traits • Recent developments – Hardening of control and anti-Western discourse – Association of German Industries (BDI) alarmed about mandatory CP cells in FDI enterprises – Praising of the Chinese model

Yes No Assertion 1. o



5. o o The financial sector intermediates; investment is determined by savings. 6. o o Economic development successful with three agents: the Wirt ,status-quo user of the resources, the Unternehmer , entrepreneur without wealth, and the intermediary,, Schumpeter’s Bankier.

Family enterprise / household or stateowned people‘s brigade / commune: Schumpeter‘s Wirt and status-quo wealth owner Balance sheet Assets - real - financial

cash

- human capital - social capital - reciprocity - social security - public services - labour rights - culture

Liabilities - relatives - friends and neighbours - market partners - banks and insurance co. - state agencies (also as owners) Equity / ownership - man / husband / member - woman / wife / member - children

Money as a cash asset for the exchange in spot markets (Milton Friedman’s helicopter money) CO

WO

cash

cash

ER cash

BK cash

real assets

LE cash

LU cash

human capital

Money as medium of deferred payment Keynes’ monetary theory of production and the theory of finance; no such social division of labour in the Familienwirtschaft (family enterprise/household) and in Cuba’s cuentapropistas CO

WO cash

ER real assets

LE human capital

CO credit

BK

real assets

fin. assets

wage advance

LU human capital

Credit creation ex nihilo Schumpeter’s entrepreneur and his banker (equal constellation for public investment)

ER

BK

loan

sight deposit

Interplay of commercial and central banking Constitution of a monetary economy through emission of universally valid banknotes CB

CO

WO cash

ER real assets

LE cash

CO credit

BK

real assets

fin. assets

wage advance

LU human capital





Socialist economics • Central planning – Lenin‘s model: First World War allocation via food stamps / Lebensmittelkarten / Libreta, administrative acts and mandatory supply and demand relations between enterprises – Industrialization – Problems: Flexibility, speed, innovation • Markets (voluntary exchange of goods and services against money) – Easier for consumption goods than for real estate, raw materials and capital goods – International trade and investment • Coherence through four mechanisms – Barter, queuing-up - and giving-up – Market response; accounting prices close to market prices – Planning – via the Directors – for the bulk of transactions – Guanxi between Party Secretaries and Directors - for projects

Guanxi (= trustful relationship) economics I: ER-PS guanxi plus command ex nihilo in village (commune / brigade) industrialization and beyond PS

CO

WO cash

ER

LE

real assets

real assets

fin. assets

cash

LU human capital

Definition of Guānxi 关系 •

Principle of reciprocity – – –

•

Fríendship/kinship based on a social, individual, emotional, committing, and long-term relationship Exchange or secure favours for mutual benef it Two or more individuals

Historical background: Confucian rites and ethics – –

禮 lǐ: rites, today  礼物 lǐwù: gift, present 五倫 wǔ-lún  five human relationships: role model for the traditional Confucian hierarchy • • • • •

Care and concern between parents and children Mutual respect between husband and wife Harmonious relationship between the elder and the younger Righteousness of the superior and his subordinates Trust between friends

Role of the Party Secretary in every institution: Change agent vs. director •

Issuer / creator of credit – investment loan  issuer of rénqíng 人情 – Creation of trust through shortkeeping of rénqíng – Rénqíng takes the role of a domestic currency • “Refinanced“ mostly by the local party secretary • Issuer of rewards and punishment – Intermediary of resources – together with the director, who is the guardian of the plan, of status-quo stability and the remaining majority of activities – Schöpferische Zerstörung  creative destruction of the Wirt – But reciprocity requires remuneration for the victims and their PS

•

Resumes informal and formal power of a guānxihù 关系户 (bouncer) – “Socialist Market“ participants need to win party secretaries‘ favour – Formally: Bureaucracy and nomenclature – Informally: Interrelation between entrepreneur and party secretary, and between director and party secretary; individualistic; interestbearing, profitable

Guanxi economics II: Command plus comprehensive, trustworthy avantgarde party responsibility through universal (dictatorial) access to resources; owners and other creditors of the Wirt are taken care of. PS taking care

CO

WO cash

ER

LE

real assets

real assets

fin. assets

cash

LU human capital

OC

Guanxi economics III: Comprehensive avantgarde responsibility through universal (dictatorial) access to resources on the next hierarchical levels: Party as equivalent to financial sector in capitalist societies

CCP legitimacy power

universal quasi money

PS taking care

CO

profit share

WO real assets

ER fin. assets

LE

real assets

LU human capital

OC

Pros and Cons of the Chinese Guanxi Economy •

Most important pros – – – –

– – – – –

Substitutes financial sector Generates accumulation Enables rapid transformation without greater ruptures Comprises efficiency incentives • Besitz  “possession“ rather than private “property“ • Vanguard role of the Party Reduces transaction costs Reduces information costs Reduces procurement costs Reduces bureaucracy costs Provides coherence, when coordinated with the directors

•

Most important cons – –

•

Prone to corruption Formal monetary and administrative relations and human right to free elections (1948) undermined

Official arguments – – – – –

– –

Abuse of power Negative side effect of the capitalist system After-effect of the feudalist system Bù xuānchuán, yě bù fǒudìng: 不宣传, 也不否定 Don‘t propagate, but don‘t prohibit! Don‘t talk to much about it!

Legalism as a necessary ingredient • Property rights – Howsoever secondary distribution takes place, property rights are its very essence. – Possession rights are more important than ownership when it comes to “development“.

• Chinese Legalism – 法 Fa (Law) is the term for the “hard“ power to enforce the right to use resources – Confucianist “soft“ power, Guanxi practice and Fa “hard“ executive power combined – that seems to be the very essence of the Chinese growth model.

Guanxi economics IV everywhere: Banking Politicized development banking between desarrollismo and amigo banking for champions or microfinance PN (not) taking care

CO

WO cash

ER/amigo

LE

real assets

(D)BK

fin. assets

real assets

cash

human capital

ISS LE/LU social security human capital

OC

Guanxi Economics V everywhere: Party membership and reciprocity in business

• Party membership – Opens fields of self-realization beyond family/household and workplace

• Trust in business relations – Customers, employees and suppliers are always partners beyond purely commercial relations

• Reciprocity between business and politics – Political parties receive donations for election campaigns and beyond





Summary I: Institutionalized secondary distribution of capital

IN CO

WO

ER

LE

LU

OC

Summary II: Economic development, market economy, democracy, rule of law, and welfare state LG

EX

JU LA

PO PP

CB

CO

WO

ER

elections

BK

LE

LU

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Family enterprises / households - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

OC

Watch out! Don‘t retry! • Precarious constellation between the implementation of a monetary market economy and the maintainance of the socialist, mono-party-dominated guanxi economy • Struggle for hegemony between Central Bank and Central Party Committee • Chinese growth history: Result of a stalemate in the Party under Deng Xiaoping • Chinese bonanza: Trouvaille of history

Abbreviations BK – bank CB - central bank CCP – central committee of the Communist Party CO – consumer CP – Communist Party ER – entrepreneur EX – executive branch of government IN -- intermediary ISS – institute of social security JU – judiciary

LA – Law / Administration LE – employed labour LG – legislature LU – unemployed labour OC – owners / creditor(s) / victims? PN – politician/s PO -- policies PP – political party/ies PS – party secretary WO – wealth owner

Selected Literature •

• • • • • • • • • •

• •

Davies, Howard et al. (1995): The Benifits of “Guanxi“… in: Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 24, No. 3, 207-214 Fang, Jianming 方建明 (1994): Moderne Lehre von der boshaften Tücke und der dickhäutigen Schamlosigkeit 白话厚黑学. Hodgson, Geofrey M. (2004): The Evolution of Institutional Economics. Huang, Guangguo 黃光國 (1988): Konfuzianismus und die Modernisierung Ostasiens 儒家思想與東亞現代化. Taipei Jin, Yaoji 金耀基 (1990): Konfuzianische Ethik und Wirtschaftsentwicklung 儒家倫理與經濟發展. Kornai, János (1995): Das sozialistische System. Lebowitz, Michael A. (2000): Kornai and the Vanguard Mode of Production; in: Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 24, No. 3, 377-392 Nitsch, Manfred (1999): Vom Nutzen des monetär-keynesianischen Ansatzes für Entwicklungstheorie und –politik; in: Schubert, R. (ed.): Neue Wachstums- und Außenhandelstheorie. Berlin, 183-214 Nitsch, M. / Diebel, F. (2008): Guanxi Economics: Confucius Meets Lenin, Keynes, and Schumpeter in Contemporary China; in: Intervention, Vol. 5, No. 2, 77-104 Riese, Hajo (1995): Geld: Das letzte Rätsel der Nationalökonomie; in: Schelkle, W./Nitsch, M. (eds): Rätsel Geld, Marburg, 45-62 Wen Zongyi 文宗一 (1982): Wohltaten vergelten und Rache nehmen: Analyse von Tauschhandlungen 报恩于复仇: 交换行为的分析. White, Lynn T. III. (1998): Unstately Power: Local Causes of China‘s Economic Reform. Yang, Mayfair Mei-hui (1994): Gifts, Favors, and Banquets. New York

Thank you Manfred Nitsch [email protected]