Keywords: Contingent valuation; Harmful algal blooms; Marine management; .... that future generations might benefit from a marine ecosystem being free from ..... ticket between the Zandvoort train station and the closest train station to the ...
7, 7LQEHUJHQ,QVWLWXWH'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHU
0HDVXULQJWKH(FRQRPLF9DOXH RID0DULQH3URWHFWLRQ3URJUDP DJDLQVWWKH,QWURGXFWLRQRI1RQ ,QGLJHQRXV6SHFLHVLQWKH 1HWKHUODQGV 3DXOR$/'1XQHV -HURHQ&-0YDQGHQ%HUJK
'HSDUWPHQWRI6SDWLDO(FRQRPLFV)DFXOW\RI(FRQRPLFVDQG%XVLQHVV$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ9ULMH
8QLYHUVLWHLW$PVWHUGDP 7LQEHUJHQ,QVWLWXWH
Tinbergen Institute The Tinbergen Institute is the institute for economic research of the Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, Universiteit van Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam Keizersgracht 482 1017 EG Amsterdam The Netherlands Tel.: +31.(0)20.5513500 Fax: +31.(0)20.5513555
Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam Burg. Oudlaan 50 3062 PA Rotterdam The Netherlands Tel.: +31.(0)10.4088900 Fax: +31.(0)10.4089031
Most TI discussion papers can be downloaded at
http://www.tinbergen.nl
0HDVXULQJWKHHFRQRPLFYDOXHRIDPDULQH
SURWHFWLRQSURJUDPDJDLQVWWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIQRQ
LQGLJHQRXVVSHFLHVLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVUHVXOWVIURPD MRLQWWUDYHOFRVW±FRQWLQJHQWYDOXDWLRQVXUYH\
3DXOR$/'1XQHV
-HURHQ&-0YDQGHQ%HUJK
'HSDUWPHQWRI6SDWLDO(FRQRPLFV
)DFXOW\RI(FRQRPLFVDQG%XVLQHVV$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ )UHH8QLYHUVLW\
'H%RHOHODDQ
+9$PVWHUGDP 7KH1HWKHUODQGV
SQXQHV#IHZHEYXQO MEHUJK#IHZHEYXQO
7KLVUHVHDUFKZDVVSRQVRUHGE\WKH1HWKHUODQGV2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU6FLHQWLILF5HVHDUFKXQGHU WKH 3ULRULW\ 5HVHDUFK 3URJUDP 6XVWDLQDEOH 8VH RI 0DULQH /LYLQJ 5HVRXUFHV 3URMHFW
)RUWKFRPLQJDWWKHGLVFXVVLRQSDSHUVHULHVIURPWKH7LQEHUJHQ,QVWLWXWH
&217(176 $EVWUDFW
LL
,QWURGXFWLRQ
6WDWHPHQWRIWKH+$%VUHVRXUFHSUREOHP
6XUYH\LQVWUXPHQWDQGVXUYH\H[HFXWLRQ
,QYDVLRQRI+$%VLQWKH1RUWK(XURSHDQZDWHUV +DUPIXO DOJDOEORRPVDVDVRXUFHRIHFRORJLFDOHFRQRPLFGDPDJH
4XHVWLRQQDLUHGHVLJQ 7KHVXUYH\DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ 'HVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFVRIWKHVXUYH\UHVSRQVHV
7UDYHOFRVWVWUDQVSRUWDWLRQDQGWUDYHOWLPH 5HFUHDWLRQGHPDQGIXQFWLRQDQGHVWLPDWLRQUHVXOWV 'HPDQGFXUYHDQGFDOFXODWLRQRIUHFUHDWLRQEHQHILWV
7KH³QRQR´]HURZLOOLQJQHVVWRSD\UHVSRQVHV :73HVWLPDWLRQUHVXOWV (VWLPDWLRQRIWKH:73IXQFWLRQ
(VWLPDWLRQUHVXOWVRIWKHWUDYHOFRVWPHWKRG
(VWLPDWLRQUHVXOWVRIWKH:73UHVSRQVHV
6\QWKHVLVDQGSROLF\UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
$SSHQGL[,&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIWKHQHJDWLYHLPSDFWVRI+$%V
$SSHQGL[,,6WUXFWXUHRIWKHVXUYH\LQVWUXPHQW
$SSHQGL[,,,4XHVWLRQQQDLUHYHUEDWLP
$SSHQGL[,96DPSOLQJPHFKDQLVP
$SSHQGL[96RFLRGHPRJUDSKLFHFRQRPLFLQIRUPDWLRQ
$SSHQGL[9,'HPDQGIXQFWLRQHVWLPDWLRQUHVXOWV
$SSHQGL[9,,'HPDQGFXUYHHVWLPDWLRQUHVXOWV
L
$EVWUDFW
+DUPIXODOJDOEORRPVSHFLHVDUHWKHFDXVHRILPSRUWDQWGDPDJHVWRPDULQHOLYLQJUHVRXUFHV DQGKXPDQEHLQJV7KHVHPDULQHVSHFLHVDUHSULPDULO\LQWURGXFHGLQ1RUWK(XURSHDQZDWHUV
WKURXJK EDOODVW ZDWHU LH ZDWHU WUDQVSRUWHG DFURVV WKH RFHDQV VR DV WR NHHS D YHVVHO LQ
EDODQFH 3RUW DXWKRULWLHV FDQ LPSRVH VWDQGDUGV RQ EDOODVW ZDWHU WUHDWPHQW ZKLFK DUH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFRVWV7KLVLQWXUQOHDGVWRWKHTXHVWLRQZKLFKEHQHILWVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK WKHFRPPLWPHQWRIVXFKVWDQGDUGV0RQHWDU\YDOXDWLRQFDQSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKLV7KLV DUWLFOH UHSRUWV D PRQHWDU\ YDOXDWLRQ VWXG\ RI D PDULQH SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP 7KH SURJUDP
IRFXVHV RQ WKH SUHYHQWLRQ RI KDUPIXO DOJDO EORRP VSHFLHV DORQJ WKH FRDVWOLQH RI WKH 1HWKHUODQGV,WHQWDLOVWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDEDOODVWZDWHUGLVSRVDOWUHDWPHQWLQWKH5RWWHUGDP
KDUERUDQGWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIDPRQLWRULQJSURJUDPRIWKHZDWHUTXDOLW\LQWKHRSHQVHD DORQJ WKH 1RUWK+ROODQG EHDFKHV 7KH YDOXDWLRQ VXUYH\ LV EDVHG RQ D TXHVWLRQQDLUH
XQGHUWDNHQ DW =DQGYRRUW D IDPRXV 'XWFK EHDFK UHVRUW 6LQFH WKH HFRQRPLF YDOXH RI WKH PDULQH SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP LQFOXGHV QRQPDUNHW EHQHILWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK EHDFK UHFUHDWLRQ KXPDQ KHDOWK DQG PDULQH HFRV\VWHP LPSDFWV ERWK FRQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ DQG WUDYHO FRVW PHWKRGVDUHXVHG
.H\ZRUGV &RQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ +DUPIXO DOJDO EORRPV 0DULQH PDQDJHPHQW 0RQHWDU\ YDOXDWLRQ7UDYHOFRVWPHWKRG
-(/FODVVLILFDWLRQ&&44
LL
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KLV VWXG\ SHUIRUPV DQ HFRQRPLF YDOXDWLRQ RI D PDULQH SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP WDUJHWHG DW WKH SUHYHQWLRQ RI KDUPIXO DOJDO EORRPV VSHFLHV +$%V DORQJ WKH 1RUWK+ROODQG RSHQ VHD
FRDVWOLQHRIWKH1HWKHUODQGV7KHWHUPµKDUPIXO¶UHIHUVWRDVHWRI DOJDHVSHFLHVWKDWKDYH D QHJDWLYH LPSDFW RQ KXPDQV DQG PDULQH HFRV\VWHPV ,Q JHQHUDO WHUPV WKUHH FDWHJRULHV RI QHJDWLYHHIIHFWVFDQEHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK+$%VULVNVWRKXPDQKHDOWKFRQVWUDLQWVRQWRXULVP
DQGUHFUHDWLRQDQGELRHFRORJLFDOHIIHFWV7KHODWWHULQFOXGHVWKHVRFDOOHGµUHGWLGHV¶ZKLFK DUHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHGHVWUXFWLRQRIPDULQHOLYLQJUHVRXUFHV
$OJDH DUH SULPDULO\ LQWURGXFHG LQ 1RUWK (XURSHDQ ZDWHUV WKURXJK EDOODVW ZDWHU RI VKLSV
LHZDWHUWKDWLVWUDQVSRUWHGE\VKLSVDFURVVWKHRFHDQVVRDVWRNHHSDYHVVHOLQEDODQFHYDQ
GHQ %HUJK HW DO ,W WKHUHIRUH PDNHV SHUIHFW VHQVH IRU SRUW DXWKRULWLHV WR LPSRVH VWDQGDUGVRQEDOODVWZDWHUWUHDWPHQW(YLGHQWO\FRVWVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKLVDFWLYLW\,QWKH
'XWFKFRQWH[WWKHDQQXDOPDULQHZDWHUTXDOLW\PRQLWRULQJFRVWVDUH¼UHSUHVHQWLQJ DERXWRIWRWDOVKHOOILVKSURGXFWLRQ7KLVLQWXUQOHDGVWRWKHTXHVWLRQZKLFKEHQHILWVDUH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHFRPPLWPHQWRIVXFKVWDQGDUGV7KHSUHVHQWYDOXDWLRQH[HUFLVHLVWDUJHWDW
WKHSURYLVLRQRIPRQHWDU\YDOXDWLRQFDQSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHEHQHILWVFRQQHFWHGWRWKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI EDOODVW ZDWHU VWDQGDUGV 7KH YDOXDWLRQ H[HUFLVH SUHVHQWV GLVWLQFWLYH IHDWXUHV WKDWMXVWLI\SDUWLFXODUDWWHQWLRQ x
x
x x x
1RUWK6HDLQJHQHUDODQGWKH1RUWK+ROODQGFRDVWDODUHDLQSDUWLFXODUKDYHVHHQ
UHODWLYHO\ IHZ DSSOLFDWLRQV RI HFRQRPLF YDOXH DVVHVVPHQW RI PDULQHFRDVWDO PDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPV
(YDOXDWLRQRIWKHDOWHUQDWLYHHFRQRPLFYDOXDWLRQPHWKRGRORJLHVLQDFFRUGDQFHWR WKHLUGHJUHHRIVXLWDELOLW\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHPXOWLIDFHWHGQDWXUHRIWKHQRQPDUNHW EHQHILWVJHQHUDWHGE\WKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIEDOODVWZDWHUVWDQGDUGV
8VH RI WUDYHO FRVWV VR DV WR PHDVXUH UHFUHDWLRQ EHQHILWV GHULYHG IURP WKH SUHYHQWLRQRI+$%VLQWKHEHDFK
8VH RI FRQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ VR DV WR PHDVXUH KXPDQ KHDOWK DQG ELRHFRORJLFDO EHQHILWV
0DQDJHPHQW RI GLIIHUHQW TXDOLWDWLYH DQG TXDQWLWDWLYH PHWKRGRORJLFDO DQG
LQIRUPDWLRQDO VHWWLQJV DQG DQDO\]H WKHLU LPSDFW RQ WKH HFRQRPLF YDOXH RI WKH GLIIHUHQWQRQPDUNHWEHQHILWVJHQHUDWHGE\WKHEDOODVWZDWHUVWDQGDUGV
x
&RPELQLQJ FRQWLQJHQW DQG WUDYHO FRVW YDOXDWLRQ UHVXOWV VR DV WR DUULYH DW D FRPSOHWHSLFWXUHRIWKHEHQHILWVSURYLGHGE\WKHPDULQHSURWHFWLRQSURJUDPZKLFK FDQVHUYHDVDEDVLVIRUUHJXODWLRQRIEDOODVWZDWHU
7KHRUJDQL]DWLRQRIWKHSDSHULVDVIROORZV6HFWLRQ GLVFXVVHVWKHQDWXUHRIWKH+$%VDV
DSUREOHPIRUPDULQHUHVRXUFHV7KLVUHODWHVWRWKHUHYLHZRIQHZO\UHFRUGHGSK\WRSODQNWRQ VSHFLHV LQ WKH 1RUWK(XURSHDQ ZDWHUV WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI LWV QHJDWLYH LPSDFWV DQG
H[DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH PRVW VXLWDEOH HFRQRPLF YDOXDWLRQ PHWKRGRORJ\ 6HFWLRQ GLVFXVVHV WKH GHVLJQDQGH[HFXWLRQRIWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHXVHGWRDVVHVVWKHHFRQRPLFYDOXDWLRQRIWKHPDULQH SURWHFWLRQSURJUDPLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV 6HFWLRQ SUHVHQWV WUDYHO FRVW HVWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV WKDW ZLOOSHUPLWWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHUHFUHDWLRQDOEHQHILWV6HFWLRQ SUHVHQWVWKHYDOXDWLRQUHVXOWV
GHULYHG IURP WKH XVH RI WKH FRQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ PHWKRG WKDW ZLOO VKHG OLJKW RQ QRQ UHFUHDWLRQDO YDOXHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH ELRHFRORJLFDO DQG KXPDQ KHDOWK EHQHILWV RI WKH PDULQH SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP )LQDOO\ VHFWLRQ LQWHJUDWHV WKH HFRQRPLF YDOXH HVWLPDWHV UHODWLQJ WR UHFUHDWLRQ KXPDQ KHDOWK DQG ELRHFRORJLFDO HIIHFWV DQG GLVFXVVHV SROLF\ LPSOLFDWLRQV
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH XVH RI VXFK PRQHWDU\ LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH IRUPXODWLRQ RI VROLG DFFXUDWH DQGHIILFLHQWEDOODVWZDWHUVWDQGDUGV
6WDWHPHQWRIWKH+$%VUHVRXUFHSUREOHP
,QYDVLRQRI+$%VLQWKH1RUWK(XURSHDQZDWHUV
+DUPIXO DOJDH EORRP VSHFLHV DUH LQYDVLYH H[RWLF VSHFLHV WKDW FDQ DIIHFW PROOXVNV VKHOOILVK DQG ILVKHV 0RUHRYHU WKH\ FDQ DOVR FDXVH D YDULHW\ RI ULVNV WR KXPDQ KHDOWK UDQJLQJ IURP
JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO GLVRUGHUV WKURXJK WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ RI FRQWDPLQDWHG VHDIRRG WR VNLQ
LUULWDWLRQVGXHWRGLUHFWFRQWDFWZLWKWKHDOJDHLQWKHZDWHUHJDWWKHEHDFK &HUWDLQ+$%V
FDXVHLPSRUWDQWFRQVWUDLQWVRQPDULQHWRXULVPDQGUHFUHDWLRQGXHWRWKHSURGXFWLRQRIWKLFN IRDPVZLWKUHSHOOHQWRGRUVUHSXOVLYHDQGFRORUDWLRQRIWKHEHDFKZDWHU
7KHUHLVDORQJKLVWRU\RILQYDVLRQVRIH[RWLFPLFURDOJDHLQ1RUWK(XURSHDQZDWHUV7KLV
KLVWRU\EHJLQVZLWKWKHGLDWRP2GHQWHOODVLQHQVLVSUHVXPDEO\LPSRUWHGLQWKH1RUWK6HDZLWK VKLS¶VEDOODVWZDWHULQWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHWK FHQWXU\2VWHQIHOG $QXPEHURIPLFUR
DOJDHFROOHFWLYHO\NQRZQDVµIODJHOODWHV¶KDYH FDXVHG FRQVLGHUDEOHHFRORJLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF GDPDJH LQ WKH SDVW \HDUV %DOODVW ZDWHU WUDQVIHU IURP $UJHQWLQD KDV DOVR EHHQ LQYROYHG
ZLWK WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI *\PQRGLQLXP FDWHQDWXP LQ 1RUWK(XURSHDQ ZDWHUV 1HKULQJ
:\DWW 1HKULQJ 7KH *\URGLQLXP DXUHROXP ZDV FRQVLGHUHG D QDWLYH QRUWKHDVW
$PHULFDQ VSHFLHV ZKHQ LW FDXVHG PDVVLYH NLOOV RI ILVK DQG ERWWRPOLYLQJ DQLPDOV LQ
QRUWKZHVWHUQ(XURSHIURPRQZDUGV%RDOFK 6KLSEDOODVWZDWHUKDVDOVREHHQWKH VXSSRVHG HQWU\ PHFKDQLVP IRU )LEURFDSVD MDSRQLFD D PLFURDOJD UHVSRQVLEOH IRU PDVVLYH ILVKPRUWDOLWLHVDVZHOODVIRUYDVWGHVWUXFWLRQRIVHDZHHGVDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHDQLPDOV%LOODUG
7KHUH LV FRPSHOOLQJ HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFH WKDW LW KDV EHHQ LQWURGXFHG IURP 7DVPDQLDQ ZDWHUV 0F0LQQ HW DO FRLQFLGLQJ ZLWK WKH VWDUW RI EXON ZRRG VKLS H[SRUW IURP
7DVPDQLD7KHVHVSHFLHVSURGXFHSRWHQWQHXURWR[LQVWKDWDFFXPXODWHWKURXJKWKHIRRG ZHE
ZKLFK KDV OHG WR WKH GHDWK RI PDULQH OLIH LQ WKH 1RUWK 6HD +DOOHJUDHII DQG )UDJD
6FKROLQ HW DO 0XVVHOV DQG RWKHU VKHOOILVK DFFXPXODWH WKRVH WR[LQV ZKHQ ILOWUDWLQJ SK\WRSODQNWRQ +XPDQV EHFRPH VLFN DIWHU HDWLQJ WKHVH FRQWDPLQDWHG VKHOOILVK WKH\ VKRZ
QHXURORJLFDO GLVRUGHUV RU PD\ HYHQ GLH RI ZKDW LV FDOOHG 3DUDO\WLF 6KHOOILVK 3RLVRQLQJ RU
363,QQHDUO\FDVHVRI363RFFXUUHGLQ*DOLFLD1RUWKHUQ6SDLQ/WK\ 7KH HFRQRPLF VLJQLILFDQFH RI VKHOOILVK SURGXFWLRQ DW WKH *DOLFLDQ FRDVW LV FRQVLGHUDEOH ZLWK DQ
HVWLPDWHGPLOOLRQNJFXOWXUHGPXVVHOVSHU\HDUHTXLYDOHQWWR¼PLOOLRQ0DULxRHWDO
3RUW DXWKRULWLHV KDYH UHFHQWO\ LPSOHPHQWHG PRQLWRULQJ ZDWHU TXDOLW\ SURJUDPV DQG KDYH
SURSRVHGWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIVWDQGDUGVRQEDOODVWZDWHUWUHDWPHQW%RWKW\SHVRIPHDVXUHVDUH
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKILQDQFLDOFRVWV7KLVUDLVHVWKHTXHVWLRQZKLFKEHQHILWVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VXFK SROLFLHV 7KLV TXHVWLRQ FDQ EH DQVZHUHG E\ FRQVLGHULQJ DYRLGHG GDPDJHVGXHWREDOODVWZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSROLF\
+DUPIXODOJDOEORRPVDVDVRXUFHRIHFRORJLFDOHFRQRPLFGDPDJH
,QDFRQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNRQHFDQGHILQHWKHWRWDOYDOXH79 RIWKHGDPDJHVLQWHUPVRIWKH XVHYDOXH89 DQGQRQXVHYDOXH18 UHODWHGWRWKHGDPDJHVFDXVHGE\+$%V7KHIRUPHU FDQEHIXUWKHUGLYLGHGLQWRGLUHFWDQGLQGLUHFWXVHYDOXHV'89DQG,89 'LUHFWXVHYDOXHV RI GDPDJHV FDXVHG E\ +$%V LQFOXGH D WKH ORVV RI PDULQH WRXULVP DQG FRDVWDO UHFUHDWLRQ
EHQHILWVE WKHORVVRIQDWXUDODQG FXOWXUHGPDULQHVSHFLHVZLWKFRPPHUFLDOYDOXHDQGF YDOXHRIULVNVWRKXPDQKHDOWK±VHH7DEOH,QGLUHFWXVHYDOXHVRIGDPDJHVFDXVHGE\+$%V
UHIHU WR GDPDJHV WKDW UHODWH WR WKH IXQFWLRQLQJ RI WKH PDULQH HFRV\VWHP DQG WKH VXUYLYDO RI PDULQH OLYLQJ UHVRXUFHV HYHQ LI WKHVH KDYH QR GLUHFW FRPPHUFLDO YDOXH )LQDOO\ QRQXVH YDOXHV RI GDPDJHV FDXVHG E\ +$%V FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR D EHTXHVW YDOXH %9 DQG DQ
H[LVWHQFHYDOXH(9 %HTXHVWYDOXHUHIHUVWRWKHEHQHILWDFFUXLQJWRDQ\LQGLYLGXDOIURPWKH
)RUDFRPSOHWHWD[RQRPLFFODVVLILFDWLRQRI+$%VVHH$SSHQGL[,
7DEOH&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIHFRQRPLFGDPDJHVFDXVHGE\+$%V 9DOXHFRPSRQHQW 'LUHFW XVHYDOXH '89 8VHYDOXH 89
1RQXVHYDOXH 189
,QGLUHFW XVHYDOXH '89 %HTXHVW 9DOXH %9
([LVWHQFH YDOXH (9
([DPSOHRIGDPDJHV
0RVWVXLWDEOH YDOXDWLRQWHFKQLTXH
/RVVRIWRXULVPDQGUHFUHDWLRQDOEHQHILWV HJYLVLWVWRWKHEHDFKVZLPPLQJDQGVDLOLQJ
7UDYHO FRVWPHWKRG
(IIHFWVRQKXPDQKHDOWK HJVNLQDOOHUJLHVDQGJDVWURLQWHVWLQDOGLVRUGHUV
&RQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ
(IIHFWVRQPDULQHUHVRXUFHVZLWKFRPPHUFLDOYDOXH HJGHVWUXFWLRQVKHOOILVKDQGPROOXVN
(IIHFWVRQPDULQHHFRV\VWHP HJ XQEDODQFLQJ ORFDO FKHPLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH ZDWHUORVVRIORFDOPDULQHOLYLQJUHVRXUFHVGLYHUVLW\ 5LVNRIORVVRIOHJDF\EHQHILWV HJ QR OHJDF\ RI PDULQH OLYLQJ UHVRXUFHV IRU IXWXUH JHQHUDWLRQV
5LVNRIORVVRIH[LVWHQFHEHQHILWV HJ QR NQRZOHGJH JXDUDQWHH WKDW VRPH PDULQH OLYLQJ UHVRXUFHVDUHORFDOO\H[WLQFW
$JJUHJDWHSULFH DQDO\VLV
&RQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ &RQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ &RQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ
1RWH 0DUNHWSULFHYDOXDWLRQWHFKQLTXH
NQRZOHGJH WKDW IXWXUH JHQHUDWLRQV PLJKW EHQHILW IURP D PDULQH HFRV\VWHP EHLQJ IUHH IURP
+$%V([LVWHQFHYDOXHUHIHUVWRWKHEHQHILWGHULYHGVLPSO\IURPWKHNQRZOHGJHWKDWPDULQH VSHFLHVDUHSURWHFWHGZLWKRXWHYHQEHLQJXVHG
$ PRQHWDU\ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH GDPDJHV RI +$%V UHTXLUHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI VSHFLILF
PRQHWDU\ YDOXDWLRQ WRROV 7KLV DOORZV EHQHILWFRVWDQDO\VLV IRU SROLF\ JXLGDQFH DQG WKXV D UDQNLQJRIDOWHUQDWLYHPDULQHSROLF\ RSWLRQV ,Q DGGLWLRQ PRQHWDU\ YDOXDWLRQ DOORZV PDULQH UHVRXUFH GDPDJH DVVHVVPHQW DQG SURSHU SULFLQJ RI PDULQH OLYLQJ UHVRXUFHV 3HUULQJV HW DO 'DYLV DQG *DUWVLGH 1XQHV DQG YDQ GHQ %HUJK +RZHYHU YDOXDWLRQ
WHFKQLTXHV KDYH QRW \HW EHHQ DSSOLHG WR YDOXH +$%V GDPDJHV %HDULQJ LQ PLQG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI YDOXH GDPDJHV DQG YDOXDWLRQ WHFKQLTXH 7DEOH VKRZV WKH PRVW VXLWDEOH
YDOXDWLRQPHWKRGRORJ\IRUHDFKW\SHRIGDPDJH$VRQHFDQVHHWKHWUDYHOFRVWPHWKRGLVWKH PRVWVXLWDEOHYDOXDWLRQPHWKRGIRUPRQHWDU\YDOXHDVVHVVPHQWRIGDPDJHVFDXVHGE\+$%V
WKDW UHODWH WR EHDFK UHFUHDWLRQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ FRQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ &9 D VXUYH\ EDVHG YDOXDWLRQWHFKQLTXHWKDWLVZLGHO\XVHGLQWKHFRQWH[WRIHQYLURQPHQWDOYDOXDWLRQ&DUVRQHW
DO 12$$ FDQ IXOILOO DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH RYHUDOO DVVHVVPHQW RI GDPDJHV
DVVRFLDWHG +$%V ,QGHHG &9 FDQ EH DSSOLHG WR DVVHVV WKH PRQHWDU\ YDOXH RI PRVW RI WKH
W\SHV RI GDPDJHV FDXVHG E\ +$%V DQG LW LV WKH RQO\ YDOXDWLRQ PHWKRG WKDW LV FDSDEOH RI VKHGGLQJ OLJKW RQ EHTXHVW DQG H[LVWHQFH YDOXHV UHODWHG WR GDPDJHV FDXVHG E\ +$%V )XUWKHUPRUH&9KDVWKHDGYDQWDJHWKDWPDULQHSROLFLHVPD\EHYDOXHGHYHQLIWKH\KDYHQRW
\HW EHHQ DGRSWHG H[ DQWH YDOXDWLRQ RU OLH RXWVLGH WKH FXUUHQW LQVWLWXWLRQDO DUUDQJHPHQWV
7KXV LW RIIHUV PXFK VFRSH DQG IOH[LELOLW\ IRU VSHFLI\LQJ GLIIHUHQW PDULQH UHVWRUDWLRQ DQG DPHOLRUDWLRQSURJUDPV4XHVWLRQQDLUHVXUYH\VDUHXVHGWRFROOHFWGDWDRQWKHQXPEHURIYLVLWV
WKDW KRXVHKROGV PDNH WR D VLWH DQG RQ WKH WUDYHO H[SHQGLWXUHV DQG WLPH $ WKLUG PHWKRG PHQWLRQLQ7DEOHDJJUHJDWHSULFHDQDO\VLVZLOOQRWEHDSSOLHGKHUHDVWKHYDOXHVUHODWHGWR WKH +$%V GDPDJHV RQ PDULQH UHVRXUFHV ZLWK FRPPHUFLDO YDOXH LV QRW SDUW RI WKH YDOXDWLRQ
DSSURDFKDGRSWHG,QIDFWZHDGRSWDYDOXDWLRQDSSURDFKZKLFKLVDQFKRUHGLQWKHXVHRID
TXHVWLRQQDLUHGHVLJQHGWRYDOXH+$%V¶UHFUHDWLRQUHODWHGGDPDJHV±WKURXJKWKHXVHRIWKH
7&PHWKRG±DQGWRYDOXH+$%V¶PDULQHHFRV\VWHPDQGQRQXVHGDPDJHVPDNLQJWKHXVH RIWKH&9PHWKRG
6XUYH\LQVWUXPHQWDQGVXUYH\H[HFXWLRQ
4XHVWLRQQDLUHGHVLJQ
7ZR PDMRU SDUWV FKDUDFWHUL]H WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH 7KH RQH FROOHFWV
UHVSRQGHQWV¶WUDYHOGDWD7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVXVHGWRVKHGOLJKWRQWKHUHFUHDWLRQEHQHILWVRI WKH PDULQH SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP 7KH VHFRQG SDUW LQFOXGHV WKH FRQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ H[HUFLVH
7KH FRQWLQJHQW YDOXDWLRQ H[HUFLVH LV GHVLJQHG WR DVVHVV WKH HFRQRPLF YDOH RI PDULQH
HFRV\VWHPQRQPDUNHWEHQHILWVRIWKHPDULQHSURWHFWLRQSURJUDP6LQFHUHVSRQGHQWVZLOOEH XQIDPLOLDUZLWKVXFKEHQHILWVWKHPDULQHSURWHFWLRQSURJUDPQHHGVWREHFDUHIXOO\GHVFULEHG
7KLVRFFXUVLQWHUPVRID FRQVWUXFWLRQRIDEDOODVWZDWHUGLVSRVDOWUHDWPHQWFRPSOH[LQWKH 5RWWHUGDPKDUERUDQLQWHUQDOFLUFXLWZKHUHEDOODVWZDWHUZLOOEHWUDQVIHUUHGWRDQGVXEPLWWHG
WRDQDSSURSULDWHSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDOWUHDWPHQWWRNLOODOO+$%VEHIRUHEHLQJGLVFKDUJHGLQWR
WKHVHDDQGE LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIDQ DOJDH PRQLWRULQJ SURJUDP RI WKH ZDWHU TXDOLW\ LQ WKH RSHQ VHD DORQJ WKH 1RUWK+ROODQG EHDFKHV 7KH EHQHILWV RI VXFK D SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP DUH GHVFULEHGLQWHUPVRILWVELRHFRORJLFDOHIIHFWVLQFOXGLQJWKHSURWHFWLRQIURPWKHVRFDOOHGUHG WLGHVZKLFKDUHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHGHVWUXFWLRQRIPDULQHOLYLQJUHVRXUFHV
$SSHQGL[ ,, SURYLGHV D FRPSOHWH VXPPDU\ RI WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH ILQDO VXUYH\ LQVWUXPHQW $ FRS\ RI WKH RULJLQDOVXUYH\LVDYDLODEOHLQ$SSHQGL[,,,
6XFFHVVIXOO\ GHVFULELQJ WKH SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP LV D QHFHVVDU\ FRQGLWLRQ WKRXJKW QRW
VXIILFLHQW WR JXDUDQWHH WKH YDOLGLW\ RI WKH YDOXDWLRQ H[HUFLVH 'HFLVLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH L
FKRLFH RI ZHOIDUH PHDVXUHPHQW LL WKH FKRLFH RI WKH SD\PHQW YHKLFOH DV ZHOO DV LLL WKH FKRLFH RI HOLFLWDWLRQ PHWKRG PXVW DOVR EH WDNHQ 7KH OLWHUDWXUH VXJJHVWV WZR DOWHUQDWLYH
PHDVXUHVWKDWFDQEHXVHGWRDVVHVVWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHZHOIDUHFKDQJHDVGHVFULEHGE\WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH QHZ UHJXODWLRQ DQG WKXV WR REWDLQ D JDLQ LQ WKH PDULQH HQYLURQPHQWDO
TXDOLW\OHYHO7KHVHDUHWKH+LFNVLDQFRPSHQVDWLQJVXUSOXVDQGWKHHTXLYDOHQWVXUSOXV+LFNV $VZHFDQVHHLQ7DEOHLQWKHVFHQDULRRIDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHPDULQHHQYLURQPHQWDO TXDOLW\ WKH +LFNVLDQ FRPSHQVDWLRQ VXUSOXV FDUULHV ZLWK LW LPSOLFLWO\ WKH SURSHUW\ULJKWV
DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH LQGLYLGXDO KDV D SD\PHQW REOLJDWLRQ LI WKH QHZ DQG KLJKHU HQYLURQPHQWDOTXDOLW\OHYHOLVWREHSXUVXHG
7DEOH+LFNVLDQZHOIDUHPHDVXUHVDQGWKHSURSHUW\ULJKWVGLVWULEXWLRQ
0DULQHHQYLURQPHQWDO TXDOLW\
+LFNVLDQ(TXLYDOHQW+( VXUSOXV ,PSOLHGSURSHUW\ULJKWVLQWKHFKDQJH
+LFNVLDQ&RPSHQVDWLQJ+& VXUSOXV ,PSOLHGSURSHUW\ULJKWVLQWKHVWDWXVTXR
'HFUHDVH
:73WRDYRLG
:$&WRDFFHSW
,QFUHDVH
:$&WRIRUJR
:73WRREWDLQ
,Q WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZH DGRSWHG WKH +LFNVLDQ HTXLYDOHQW VXUSOXV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH
FKDQJH LQ LQFRPH WKDW UHIOHFWV WKH FRQVXPHU¶V PD[LPXP ZLOOLQJQHVV WR SD\ :73 ± VHH ³:73 WR REWDLQ´ LQ 7DEOH 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW WKH SUHVHQW GLVWULEXWLRQ RI SURSHUW\ ULJKWV LV
UHVSHFWHGVRWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVKDYHWRSD\IRUDQLPSURYHPHQWRIHQYLURQPHQWDOTXDOLW\GXHWR WKHPDULQHSURWHFWLRQSURJUDP
,QDGGLWLRQRQHQHHGVWRFKRRVHWKHSD\PHQWPHWKRG7KHFUXFLDOSRLQWLVWRILQGDVFKHPH
WKDWEHVWILWVWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOFKDQJHLQDZD\WKDWFUHDWHVDSODXVLEOHVLWXDWLRQFRQYLQFLQJ WRUHVSRQGHQWVDVDQDSSURSULDWHZD\WRSD\IRUWKHGHVFULEHGSURJUDPDQGUHJDUGHGDVDIDLU PHWKRG RI SD\PHQW VR WKDW DOO UHVSRQGHQWV LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RI WKHLU VRFLRHFRQRPLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV OLIH H[SHULHQFHV DQG UHVLGHQWLDO ORFDOL]DWLRQ DUH HTXDOO\ FRPSHOOHG WR SD\
)XUWKHUPRUHWKHUHVSRQGHQWVDUHLQIRUPHGWKDWWKHFXUUHQWEXGJHWVRIVKLSSLQJFRPSDQLHVDUH
LQVXIILFLHQW WR DOORZ WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI SUHYHQWLRQ DQG PRQLWRULQJ VFKHPHV ,Q YLHZ RI WKHVHFRQGLWLRQVZHDGRSWHGDQDWLRQDOWD[FROOHFWLRQVFKHPHUHMHFWLQJDOWHUQDWLYHVVXFKDV
EHDFK HQWUDQFH IHHV 0RUHRYHU WKH VXUYH\ QDUUDWLYH PDNHV FOHDU WR WKH UHVSRQGHQW WKDW WKH PRQH\ UDLVHG ZLOO EH H[FOXVLYHO\ DOORFDWHG WR WKH SURWHFWLRQ RI SURJUDP DV GHVFULEHG LQ WKH VXUYH\LQVWUXPHQWDQGWKXVQRWVXEMHFWWRZDVWHRUIUDXG
$V IDU WKH HOLFLWDWLRQ PHWKRG LV FRQFHUQHG ZH IROORZHG FORVHO\ WKH 1DWLRQDO2FHDQLFDQG
$WPRVSKHULF $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ JXLGHOLQHV 12$$ DQG DGRSWHG WKH UHIHUHQGXP HOLFLWDWLRQ
TXHVWLRQIRUPDW7KLVPHDQVWKDWHDFKUHVSRQGHQWLVIDFHGZLWKDVSHFLILFFRVWDVVWDWHGLQWKH VXUYH\LQVWUXPHQWDQGDVNHGZKHWKHUVKHLVZLOOLQJWRSD\WKDWDPRXQWD\HVRUQRUHVSRQVH VRDVWRSUHYHQWWKHGHYHORSPHQWSODQ&DPHURQDQG-DPHV&DPHURQ&DPHURQ
,Q WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZH XVHG WKH GRXEOHERXQGHG GLFKRWRPRXV FKRLFH TXHVWLRQ &DPHURQ DQG 4XLJJLQ VR DV WR LQFUHDVH WKH VWDWLVWLFDO HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH HVWLPDWHV
+DQHPDQQHWDO 7KHXVHRIUHIHUHQGXPTXHVWLRQVLQYROYHVWKHGHVLJQRID UDQJHRI ELGVLHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDVFKHPHWKDWVSHFLILHVIRUHDFKUHVSRQGHQWWKHLQLWLDOELGDQG
WKHUHVSHFWLYHIROORZXSV 7KXVZHKDYHWRGHFLGHKRZPDQ\ELGVWRXVHWKHORZHVWDQGWKH KLJKHVW ELG KRZ WKH ELGV VKRXOG EH VSDFHG DQG ZKDW SURSRUWLRQ RI UHVSRQGHQWV VKRXOG EH RIIHUHGHDFKELG7KHVHZHUHFKRVHQLQDFFRUGDQFHWRWKHDQVZHULQJUHVXOWVWRDQRSHQHQGHG :73TXHVWLRQXVHGLQDVPDOOQXPEHURISLORWLQWHUYLHZVLQWKLVVWXG\ 7DEOH RIIHUVWKHIXOO UDQJHRIELGDPRXQWVXVHGLQWKHVXUYH\LQVWUXPHQW
%LG&DUGV &DUG &DUG &DUG &DUG
7DEOH%LGDPRXQWVXVHGLQWKHVXUYH\ ,QLWLDO%LG
,QFUHDVHG%LG
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
2ULJLQDOO\IRUPXODWHGLQ'XWFK*XLOGHUV
'HFUHDVHG%LG
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
7KHVXUYH\DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ
7KHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHWRRNSODFHGXULQJ$XJXVWDWWKH=DQGYRRUWDUHD
ZKLFK LV ORFDWHG DW WKH 1RUWK+ROODQG SURYLQFH RI WKH 1HWKHUODQGV 'XULQJ WKH VXPPHU =DQGYRRUW LV D FRDVWDO UHVRUW LGHDO IRU EHDFK UHFUHDWLRQ DFWLYLWLHV UDQJLQJ IURP VZLQJLQJ WR
VDLOLQJ=DQGYRRUWLVRQHRIWKHPRVWSRSXODUEHDFKHVLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVHDVLO\DFFHVVLEOHE\ SULYDWH DQG SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW ,Q JHQHUDO WHUPV WKH =DQGYRRUW EHDFK DUHD LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ WZR GLIIHUHQW ]RQHV WKH EHDFKHV DURXQG WKH FLW\ FHQWHU RI =DQGYRRUW DQG WKH EHDFKHV RI %ORHPHQGDDOZKHUH WKH FRDVW LV QRW VR KHDYLO\ XUEDQL]HG DQG LQFOXGHV WKH QDWXUDO SDUN WKH .HQQHPHU'XQHV
$Q LQWHUYLHZHU ZLWK ILHOGZRUN H[SHULHQFH FRQGXFWHG WKH VXUYH\ :H RSWHG IRU DQ LQ
SHUVRQVXUYH\EHFDXVHLWGRHVQRWRQO\OHDGWRWKHKLJKHVWVXUYH\UHVSRQVHUDWHVEXWDOVRLWLV WKHPRVWVXLWDEOHZKHQXVLQJGRXEOHGLFKRWRPRXVZLOOLQJQHVVWRSD\HOLFLWDWLRQIRUPDW
7DEOH RIIHUV WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI LQWHUYLHZV RYHU WLPH LQFOXGLQJ ERWK
ZHHNGD\VDQGZHHNHQGV%HIRUHWKHH[HFXWLRQRIVXUYH\DILUVWGUDIWRIWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHZDV
ZULWWHQ DQG WHVWHG LQ D QXPEHU RI SLORW LQWHUYLHZV 7KLV HQDEOHG XV WR FKHFN IRU WKH
FRPSUHKHQVLELOLW\ RI WKH SURSRVHG YDOXDWLRQ H[HUFLVH DQG LPSURYH WKH ODQJXDJH XVHG LQ WKH QDUUDWLYH
:HG WK
7KX WK
6DW WK
7DEOH'LVWULEXWLRQRIWKHQXPEHURILQWHUYLHZV 7XH WK
:HG WK
)UL WK
6DW WK
6XQ WK
:HG QG
7KX UG
)UL WK
6XQ WK
6DW VW 6HSW
7KH VHOHFWLRQ RI UHVSRQGHQWV ZDV GRQH DFFRUGLQJ WR D UDQGRP FRYHUDJH RI YLVLWRUV SHU
EHDFK KRXVH 7KLV SURFHVV \LHOGHG D UDQGRP FRYHUDJH RI YLVLWRUV SHU EHDFK KRXVH WKXV
FRQWULEXWLQJWRWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVVRIWKHVDPSOH7KHLQWHUYLHZHUFRQWDFWHGJURXSRI YLVLWRUVIURPZKRPZHUHFHLYHGDWRWDORIFRPSOHWHGVXUYH\V7KHQRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQUDWH
LV SHUFHQW LH RQ DYHUDJH DERXW WZR RXW WKUHH LQWHUYLHZV ZHUH FRPSOHWHG 8QOLNH PDQ\ RWKHUVXUYH\DSSOLFDWLRQVWKHPRVWRIWHQPHQWLRQUHDVRQIRUUHIXVDOLV³QRWVSHDNLQJ'XWFK´ LQIDFWIRUHLJQWRXULVWVDFFRXQWHGIRURQHWKLUGRIDOOUHIXVDOV
'HVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFVRIWKHVXUYH\UHVSRQVHV
7KHLQWHUYLHZHUFRQWDFWHGJURXSRIYLVLWRUVRIZKLFKFRPSOHWHGWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH
7KHQRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQUDWHLVWKHUHIRUHSHUFHQW8QOLNHPDQ\RWKHUVXUYH\DSSOLFDWLRQVWKH PRVW RIWHQ PHQWLRQHG UHDVRQ IRU UHIXVDO LV ³QRW VSHDNLQJ 'XWFK´ 7RXULVWV IURP DEURDG
DFFRXQWHGIRURQHWKLUGRIDOOUHIXVDOV7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUH¶VGHPRJUDSKLFVDQGVRFLRHFRQRPLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH PHGLDQ UHVSRQGHQW LV EHWZHHQ DQG \HDUV ROG KDV
FRPSOHWHGWKH+$92VWXGLHVOLYHVZLWKDSDUWQHUDQGKDVDKRXVHKROGPRQWKO\QHWLQFRPH LV LQ WKH UDQJH RI ¼ ± ¼ :H DOVR YHULILHG WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV
ZHUHZRPHQFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRSHUFHQWRIWKHVDPSOH:KHQFRQIURQWLQJWKHGDWDRIRXU
VXUYH\ ZLWK VRFLRGHPRJUDSKLF VWDWLVWLFV IRU WKH 1HWKHUODQGV ZH DUH XQDEOH WR ILQG PDMRU
GLIIHUHQFHV )RU H[DPSOH WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH OHYHOV RI HGXFDWLRQ LQ WKH VDPSOH LV YHU\ )RUH[DPSOHWKHSLORWLQWHUYLHZVSOD\HGDFUXFLDOUROHLQGRZQVL]LQJWKHRULJLQDOTXHVWLRQQDLUHZKLFKSURYHG WREHWRRORQJIRUDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ
$EHDFKKRXVHUHIHUVWRD]RQLQJXQLWRIWKH=DQGYRRUWEHDFKDUHD$SSHQGL[,9SUHVHQWVLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKH ORFDOL]DWLRQRI=DQGYRRUWDQGSURYLGHVDOLVWRIVHOHFWHGEHDFKYLVLWRUV
VLPLODU UHSUHVHQWDWLYH ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH VDPSOH DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI SHUVRQV SHU KRXVHKROG LVFORVHWRWKHDYHUDJHIRUWKH1HWKHUODQGVZKLFKLV ,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHVDPSOHLV UHSUHVHQWDWLYHIRUWKH1HWKHUODQGV
6XUYH\ UHVSRQVHV RQ WKH WUDYHO GDWD VKRZ WKDW PRUH WKDQ SHUFHQW RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV
WRRN D FDU WR WUDYHO WR =DQGYRRUW SHUFHQW DUULYHG E\ SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW LH WUDLQ
SHUFHQWFDPHE\ELF\FOHDQGSHUFHQWRIWKHUHVSRQGHQWDUULYHGWRWKHEHDFKRQIRRW:H
XVHG SXEOLF GRPDLQ VRIWZDUH RI WKH 'XWFK 5DLOZD\V WR FRPSXWHG WUDYHO WLPH IRU SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW7KHVDPSOHUHVXOWVVKRZWKDWEHDFKYLVLWRUVWKDWWUDYHOHGE\WUDLQVSHQWRQDYHUDJH
WZR KRXUV DQG WZHQW\ILYH PLQXWHV RQ WKH WZRZD\ MRXUQH\ (DFK UHVSRQGHQW WUDYHOLQJ E\ FDUZDVDVNHGWRWKHSRVWDO]LSFRGHRIWKHLUDGGUHVVWKHEUDQGDQGPRGHORIWKHLUFDUWKHVL]H RIWKHHQJLQHWKHW\SHRIIXHOXVHGDQGWKHFRVWVRISDUNLQJDWWKHEHDFK2QWKHEDVLVRIWKLV LQIRUPDWLRQZHZHUHDEOHWRFRPSXWHLQGLYLGXDOWUDYHOFRVWVIRUDOOYLVLWRUVWKDWXVHGDFDUWR
UHDFK WKH =DQGYRRUW EHDFK DUHD 7KLV VKRZV WKDW YLVLWRUV ZKR FDPH E\ FDU WUDYHOHG RQ
DYHUDJH NLORPHWHUV DQG VSHQW RQH KRXU DQG WZHQW\WKUHH PLQXWHV RQ WKH WZRZD\ MRXUQH\ 7KHPHGLDQUHVSRQGHQWXVHGDFDUSRZHUHGE\JDVROLQHZLWKDPHGLXPVL]HHQJLQH DQGVSHQWDERXW¼LQSDUNLQJ)LQDOO\UHVSRQGHQWVZHUHDVNHGWRH[SUHVVZKHWKHUWKH\KDG
LQFXUUHGRQVLWHH[SHQGLWXUHV$ERXWSHUFHQWRIWKHUHVSRQGHQWVLQGLFDWHGWKH\KDGUHQWHG
SDUDVROV RU ZLQGVKLHOGV DQG SHUFHQW WKDW WKH\ KDG VSHQW PRQH\ RQ GULQNV RU IRRG LQ WKH WHUUDFHV7DEOH RIIHUVDPRUHGHWDLOHGFODVVLILFDWLRQRIWKHRQVLWHH[SHQGLWXUHV 7DEOH2QVLWHH[SHQGLWXUHV %HDFKPDWHULDOV )RRGDQGGULQNV
/HVVWKDQ¼
WR¼
1RWH ,QFOXGHVWKHFRVWVGXHWRWKHUHQWRISDUDVROVDQGZLQGVKLHOGV
WR¼
0RUHWKDQ¼
1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHVXUYH\VDPSOHUHYHDOVWREHVOLJKWO\VNHZHGWRZDUGV\RXQJUHVSRQGHQWV6HH$SSHQGL[9IRU PRUHGHWDLOHGLQIRUPDWLRQ
$YDLODEOHDWZZZQVQOUHLVLQIR
7KH WUDLQ VWDWLRQ RI =DQGYRRUW LV OHVV WKDQ ILYH PLQXWHV ZDONLQJ IURP WKH EHDFK $V WKH RULJLQ ZH XVHG WKH FORVHVWWUDLQVWDWLRQWRWKH]LSFRGHUHSRUWHGE\WKHUHVSRQGHQW)RUUHVSRQGHQWVOLYLQJIDUIURPDUDLOZD\VWDWLRQ ZHLQFOXGHGDQH[WUDWZHQW\PLQXWHVIRUWUDQVSRUWIURPKRPHWRWKHUDLOZD\VWDWLRQ
,QIRUPDWLRQREWDLQHGZLWK0LFURVRIW$XWR5RXWH([SUHVV VRIWZDUH
'HVFULSWLYHGDWDUHODWLQJWRWKH:73TXHVWLRQVDUHDVIROORZV$VRQHZRXOGH[SHFWIURP
HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI µ\HV\HV¶ UHVSRQVHV IDOOV VKDUSO\ ZLWK WKH DPRXQW WKH UHVSRQGHQWLVDVNHGWRSD\$VZHFDQVHHIURP7DEOHSHUFHQWRIWKHUHVSRQGHQWVDUH
ZLOOLQJ WR SD\ PRUH WKDQ ¼ IRU WKH SURWHFWLRQ SURJUDP ZKLOH RQO\ SHUFHQW RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV VWDWHV D ZLOOLQJQHVV WR SD\ DERYH ¼ 6XFK D ORZ VDPSOH SURSRUWLRQ DW WKH KLJKHVW ELG LV KHUH LQWHUSUHWHG DV D VLJQDO WKDW WKH ELG FDUG LV ZHOO GHVLJQHG VLQFH LW KDV
FDSWXUHG WKH UDQJH RI UHVSRQGHQW¶V XQREVHUYHG ZLOOLQJQHVV WR SD\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ DQG DV ZH
ZRXOG H[SHFW WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI µQRQR¶ UHVSRQVHV LQFUHDVHV WKH ELG DPRXQW ,Q IDFW DW WKH ORZHVW ELG FDUG ZH UHJLVWHU D SHUFHQW RI ³QRQR´ UHVSRQVH ZKHUHDV WKLV SURSRUWLRQ LQFUHDVHVWRSHUFHQWDWWKHKLJKHVWELGFDUG+RZHYHU7DEOH DOVRVKRZVWKDWORZHVW³QR
QR´VDPSOHSURSRUWLRQUHODWHVWRWKH¼ELGFDUGDQGQRWWRWKH¼WKHKLJKHVWELGFDUG 7KLV IDFW VLJQDOV WKH QHHG IRU DQDO\VLV RI WKH UHDVRQV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH ³QRQR´ UHVSRQGHQWV
7KH UHPDLQLQJ DQVZHULQJ SDWWHUQV ³\HVQR´ ³QR\HV´ UHVSRQVHV LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH UHVSRQGHQW¶V PD[LPXP :73 OLHV EHWZHHQ WKH LQLWLDO ELG DPRXQW DQG WKH LQFUHDVHG
GHFUHDVHG ELGDPRXQWVSHUFHQWRIWKH:73OLHVEHWZHHQDQG¼ DQGSHUFHQWRI WKHUHVSRQGHQWV¶:73OLHVEHWZHHQDQG¼
7DEOH%LGFDUGVPRQH\DPRXQWVDQGUHVSRQVHV
%LGFDUG Q Q Q Q
0RQHWDU\DPRXQWV
,QLWLDO ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
+LJK ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
'LVWULEXWLRQRIWKH:73UHVSRQVHVLQ
/RZ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
VD\\RXUQDPH@DQG,DPZRUNLQJZLWK WKH 9ULMH 8QLYHUVLWHLW LQ $PVWHUGDP 7KLV VKRUW TXHVWLRQQDLUH LV SDUW RI D UHVHDUFK SURMHFW WKDW KDV WKH JRDO WR VWXG\ WKH UHFUHDWLRQDO EHKDYLRU RI YLVLWRUV DW 1RUWK +ROODQGEHDFKHV $
0D\,NLQGO\DVN\RXVRPHTXHVWLRQVDERXW\RXUDWWLWXGHVDQGRSLQLRQV" >SOHDVHFLUFOH UHVSRQGHQW¶VDQVZHU@ 1R FLUFOHUHVSRQGHQW¶VDQVZHU@ /HVVWKDQRQFHDPRQWK $WOHDVWRQFHDPRQWK
%
%
%
6KRZ&DUG 6KRZ&DUG
1UBBBBBBB
QRWDWR
1UBBBBBBB
QRWDWR
6KRZ&DUG :K\GLG\RXFRPHWRWKHEHDFKWRGD\WKHPDLQUHDVRQ " >FLUFOHUHVSRQGHQW¶VDQVZHU@ 6XQEDWKLQJ :DONLQJDORQJWKHZDWHUIURQW\RXFDQVHHWKHVHD 6ZLPPLQJ :DONLQJDORQJWKHGXQHV\RXFDQQRWVHHWKHVHD %LNLQJ 2WKHUBBBBBBBBBBBB>RSHQHQGHG@ % ,IPXOWLSOHUHDVRQVZKLFKRQHVE\GHFUHVFHQGRRUGHUPD[ BBBBBBBBBBBB +RZORQJGR\RXSODQWRVWD\DWWKHEHDFK" $FRXSOHRIKRXUV $WOHDVWKDOIDGD\HLWKHUPRUQLQJRUDIWHUQRRQ 7KHZKROHGD\ 2WKHUBBBBBBBBBBBB>RSHQHQGHG@
'R\RXDOVRFRPHWRWKLVEHDFKGXULQJWKH:LQWHUSHULRG" 1R FLUFOH UHVSRQGHQW¶VDQVZHU@ 1R RSHQHQGHG@
7KH PDLQ VRXUFH RI PLFURVFRSLF WR[LF DOJDH LQ WKH VHDZDWHU DORQJ WKLV FRDVW LV 5RWWHUGDP KDUERU 7KH FDXVH LV WKH EDOODVW ZDWHU GLVFKDUJHG E\ VKLSV :DWHU GLVFKDUJHV DUH GRQH WR FRPSHQVDWH IRU GLIIHUHQFHV LQ D VKLS¶V FDUJR DQG WKXV JXDUDQWHHWKHEDODQFHRIWKHVKLSGXULQJLWVMRXUQH\+RZHYHUWKLVSURFHVVFDXVHV VHDZDWHU FRQWDLQLQJ ORFDO PLFURRUJDQLVPV LQFOXGLQJ DOJDH EHLQJ WUDQVIHUUHG IURP RWKHUSDUWVRIWKHZRUOGWRWKH1RUWKVHD >3$86(@
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
,IWKHSURSRVHGSUHYHQWLRQVFKHPHZHUHWREHDSSURYHGVKLSFRPSDQLHVZRXOGEH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH ILQDQFLQJ RI WKH EDOODVW ZDWHU GLVSRVDO WUHDWPHQW FRPSOH[ LQ 5RWWHUGDP DQG SDUWLDOO\ IRU WKH ILQDQFLQJ RI WKH DOJDH PRQLWRULQJ SURJUDP $V D UHVXOW WKH ULVN RI D ELRORJLFDO SROOXWLRQ LQFLGHQW DORQJ WKH 1RUWK+ROODQG FRDVW DQG EHDFKHVZLOOGHFUHDVHZLWK >3$86(@
$VRSSRVHGWRWKLVZLWKRXWWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIERWKDFWLRQVWKHSUHVHQWULVNRID ELRORJLFDO SROOXWLRQ LQFLGHQW LQ DORQJ WKH 'XWFK FRDVW DQG EHDFKHV LV H[SHFWHG WR GRXEOHLQWKHQH[WILYH\HDUV6RPHEHDFKHVPD\WKHQHYHQEHFORVHGWRYLVLWRUV >3$86(@ (
'R \RX KDYH \RX DQ\ TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKH GHVFULEHG ELRORJLFDO SROOXWLRQ
SUHYHQWLRQVFKHPH" >FLUFOHUHVSRQGHQW¶VDQVZHU@ 60$//3$86(@ IRUWKHQH[W\HDUV"
1RDQVZHU '21275($'
) $QGKRZZRXOG\RXYRWHLIWKHWRWDOWD[DPRXQWWREHSDLGZDV1/*SHU\HDU >60$//3$86(@ IRUWKHQH[W\HDUV"
927(,1)$925 927($*$,167 ª)
1RDQVZHU '21275($'
ª)
) :KDWLVWKHPRVWWKDW\RXDUHZLOOLQJWRSD\SHU\HDU>60$//3$86(@ IRUWKH QH[W\HDUV" BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB1/*