Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Mitigating Systems Complexity & Unintended Systems Emergent Behaviors through NASA's Digital Twin Strategy Dr. Michael Grieves Florida Institute of Technology Center For Lifecycle and Innovation Management Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Dr. Michael Grieves • Expert & Author, Product Lifecycle Management • Co-Dir, Florida Tech Center for Lifecycle and Innovation Management (CLIM) • Developer, Florida Tech PLM Certificate Course (http://www.fit.edu/continuing-ed/plm.php) • 40+ year executive & board director – IT, Engineering, Manufacturing, Sports • Consultant – NASA, DoD, Industry • Prof – Florida Institute of Technology, Univ of Iowa, CIMBA, Italy
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Defining PLM Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) is an integrated, information-driven approach comprised of people, processes/ practices, and technology, to all aspects of a product's life and its environment, from its design through manufacture, deployment and maintenance—culminating in the product's removal from service and final disposal. Another perspective: Corallo, A., M. E. Latino, M. Lazoi, S. Lettera, M. Marra and S. Verardi (2013). "Defining product lifecycle management: a journey across features, definitions, and concepts." ISRN Industrial Engineering 2013. Source: Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products through Product Lifecycle Management (SCP, 2011) Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Definitions Simple – completely predictable; inputs, operations, and outputs are transparent and obvious; e.g., manual air pump Complicated– also completely predictable; high component counts; intricate Complex– not easily or completely predictable; large network of components, with many-to-many interfaces; elements of surprise Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Emergent Behavior “I Didn’t See That Coming” • Complexity leads to “Normal Accidents” (Perrow) – Human inconsistency – Sensemaking
• Complexity = tightly coupled, non linear, cascading failures • Emergent behavior vs. Unforeseen behavior
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Complexity Trends – Aero, Auto, ICs
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Source: DARPA, Adaptive Vehicle Make, 10/29/10
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Categories of System Behavior System Behavior
Predicted Behavior
Predicted Desirable (PD)
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Predicted Undesirable (UU)
Unpredicted Behavior
Unpredicted Desirable (UD)
Unpredicted Undesirable (UU)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Conceptual Ideal for PLM (Digital Twin) Data Real Space
Information
Virtual Space
Process
VS1
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
VS2
VSn
Dr. Michael Grieves, University of Michigan, Lurie Engineering Center, Dec 3, 2001
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Product Lifecycle – 4 Phases Build
Create
Sustain/ Support
Perceived Customer Value Dispose Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Create Data Real Space
Information
Virtual Space
Process
Prototypical Digital Twin
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
VS1
VS2
VSn
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Create Aspects • Geometry • Behavior modeling – Abstract to Concrete – Discrete to Multi-domain solvers – Macro to micro modeling / simulation (Atoms to Airplanes - Boeing)
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Build Data Real Space
Information
Virtual Space
Process
Instance Digital Twin
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
VS1
VS2
VSn
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Build Aspects • Macro – Factory, line, work cell • Micro – Processes • Integrated – Predicted to Actual
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
NASA Graphics
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Sustain/Support Data Real Space
Information
Virtual Space
Process
Instance Digital Twin
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
VS1
VS2
VSn
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Sustain/Support Aspects • Performance profile predictions per instance • Fatigue projections • Damage / fracture predictions • Non conforming part projections
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Dispose Data Real Space
Information
Virtual Space
Process
Prototypical/ Instance Digital Twin
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
VS1
VS2
VSn
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
System Engineering Models
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Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Waterfall Model in Action
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Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Digital Twin Implementation Model
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Digital Twin Obstacles & Opportunities • Obstacle – Organizational siloing/fragmented solvers – Knowledge of physical world/multi-physics – Magnitude of possible system states
• Opportunities – “Atoms to Airplanes” – Virtual fleet prognostics – Virtual instance “front-running” Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Thank You
[email protected] Florida Tech CLIM (http://innovate.fit.edu/plm/index.php)
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
