ISSN 07420463, Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 2013, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 86–97. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2013. Original Russian Text © S.L. Senyukov, 2013, published in Vulkanologiya i Seismologiya, 2013, No. 1, pp. 96–108.
Monitoring and Prediction of Volcanic Activity in Kamchatka from Seismological Data: 2000–2010 S. L. Senyukov Kamchatka Branch, Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences, PetropavlovskKamchatskii, bul’var Piipa 9, 683006 Russia email:
[email protected] Received March 14, 2012
Abstract—Seismological Observations in Kamchatka were significantly improved due to the installation of new telemetered seismic stations near active volcanoes and the implementation of modern digital technolo gies for data transmission, acquisition, and processing in 1996–1998. This qualitative leap forward made it possible, not only to create an effective system for monitoring Kamchatka volcanoes and for timely and reli able assessment of the state of these volcanoes, but also to draw conclusions about volcanic hazard. The expe rience that was gained allowed us to make successful shortterm forecasts for eight moderate explosive erup tions on Bezymyannyi Volcano of the ten that have occurred in 2004–2010, successful intermediateterm forecasts of evolving activity on Klyuchevskoi Volcano in three cases, as well as providing a successful forecast of an explosive eruption on Kizimen Volcano. DOI: 10.1134/S0742046313010077
INTRODUCTION
weather or darkness, which makes 75% of all time unsuitable by our observation. More than half of all active volcanoes are far from population centers, so that continuous visual (video) observations are not available for such volcanoes. Satellite observations can monitor extensive areas and do not depend on the time of the day. These observations strongly depend on weather conditions; however, they are discrete in char acter and are available with some delay (30 minutes at the minimum, the average delay time being 2 h). The discreteness does not allow one to determine the time that an eruption began exactly. The purpose of the present paper is to provide a brief review of the work carried out in 2000–2010 by the Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Activity Stud ies (LSVAS) of the KB GS RAS in the study and fore casting of volcanic activity in Kamchatka based on seismological data.
The most active volcanoes of the planet are located in Kamchatka [Deistvuyushchie vulkany …, 1991]. The annual rate is for three to five volcanoes to produce explosive eruptions there. The Kamchatka Branch (KB) of the Geophysical Service (GS) of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) has been conducting monitoring of Kamchatka volcanic activity in near real time since 2000 [Senyukov, 2006]. The studies are carried out using three methods: (1) seismological monitoring, (2) visual and video observations, (3) sat ellite monitoring. At present the work of the KB GS RAS to acquire, process, and present information on volcanic activity (http://www.emsd.ru/~ssl/monitor ing/main. htm) makes it possible to deduce timely and reliable assessment of the state of volcanoes and to draw conclusions about the probable evolution of the volcanic activity. Urgent information on volcanic haz ard is transferred via electronic mail or by telephone to the Chief Agency (CA) of the Ministry of Emergencies (ME) of Kamchatka, as well as to the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) within the framework of the inter national KVERT project [Kir’yanov et al., 2001; Neal et al., 2009] and to the KVERT (Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team) at the Institute of Volcanol ogy and Seismology (IV&S) of the Far East Branch (FEB) of the RAS. Of all the three methods of study that were men tioned above, seismological monitoring is the leading method, because it provides continuous, real time, 24 hours monitoring. Video and visual observations in Kamchatka are frequently impossible owing to bad
SEISMOLOGICAL MONITORING The first studies in the relationships between the activities of Kamchatka volcanoes and seismic events are due to the wellknown Kamchatka volcanologist G.S. Gorshkov [1961]. P.I. Tokarev began to develop methods and to set up a service for prediction of volca nic eruptions in 1960 [Tokarev, 1966, 1976, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1988]. Detailed analyses of seismicity for over 40 years of observation of Kamchatka volcanoes made it possible for seismologists (P.I. Tokarev, V.I. Gorel’chik, S.A. Fedotov, E.I. Gordeev, V.M. Zo bin, V.A. Shirokov, V.T. Garbuzova, A.V. Storcheus, 86
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and V.V. Ivanov) to study the seismological precursors of eruptions (unfortunately, this space does not permit us to merely list the relevant publications), as well as to make successful forecasts of the larger eruptions, e.g., the Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption in 1975 [Tokarev, 1976], the 1983 flank eruption on Klyuchev skoi in 1983 [Tokarev, 1983], and the extrusive–explo sive eruption of Shiveluch Volcano in 2001 [Ivanov, 2003; Fedotov et al., 2001]. The processes of monitoring the states of volcanoes and forecasting their activities are aided by the follow ing three main factors. (1) The quality and accuracy of the observations (Fig. 1). The telemetered network of the KB GS RAS as it evolved over time [Gordeev et al., 2006; Chebrov, 2006; Yashchuk et al., 2009] enables seismic monitor ing of Kamchatka volcanoes to varying degrees of detail. The most detailed observations are conducted in the Avacha and Northern volcano groups, as well as on Kizimen, Gorelyi, and Mutnovskii volcanoes. Karymskii, Alaid (Atlasov I.), and Ebeko (Para mushir I.) volcanoes have one station installed on each; this is sufficient to record weak local earth quakes, but not to locate their hypocenters. As for the other volcanoes, only large seismic events can be recorded and located based on data from teleseismic stations. (2) The support of the observational system with advanced communication and processing tools [Gordeev et al., 2004a]. A large step forward in seismic data processing was made in 1996–1998. During those years seismic data were converted to the digital format and seismograms began to be processed on computer screens [Droznin and Droznina, 2010]. As well, all telemetered seismic data were combined together in a single corporate network so that seismic data could be accessed in real time. (3) The presence of skilled personnel with the nec essary experience. The results of this seismic monitoring are reported through various information resources [Gordeev et al., 2008, 2010]. Information on volcanic earthquakes and on the state of volcanoes is transmitted on a daily basis according to the regulations to interested organiza tions and is placed at the KB GS RAS server on the Internet. (1) http://www.emsd.ru/~ssl/monitoring/ main.htm is the Activity of Kamchatka Volcanoes data base; this resource is incorporated into the State Reg ister of Databases and Data Banks, no. 0220711891; (2) http://www.emsd.ru/ts is the current database for Kamchatka earthquakes; (3) http://www.emsd.ru/ts/datareload.php?id=1 covers the earthquakes in the Northern Volcano Group; (4) http://www.emsd.ru/ts/datareload.php?id=0 does the same for the Avacha–Koryakskii Volcano group; JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY
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(5) http://www.emsd.ru contains real time video observations of the state of Kamchatka volcanoes (Shiveluch, Klyuchevskoi, Bezymyannyi, Kizimen, Avacha, and Koryakskii). The earthquake catalogs contain the main parame ters of earthquakes that were recorded by three or more stations: origin time, hypocenter coordinates, and the energy parameter. The KB GS RAS publishes catalogs of earthquakes and reviews of the seismic monitoring of Kamchatka volcanoes in annual issues Zemletryaseniya Severnoi Evrazii and Zemletryaseniya Rossii published by the RAS Geophysical Service. The materials for 1999–2009 have been published to date with accompanying CD disks with the data. A catalog that contains standard kinematic and energy parame ters of all located earthquakes in Kamchatka for the current year is updated on a daily basis and is available at http://www.emsd.ru/ts/. The waveforms (digital records) of the earthquakes are stored at the registered resource Waveforms of Kamchatka Volcanic Earth quakes, which is included at the State Register of Data Bases and Data Banks, no. 0220913209. Earthquakes that are impossible to locate are divided by appearance in accordance with the Tokarev classification [Tokarev, 1981], the number of these events is counted, their amplitude characteristics are mea sured, and all parameters are published in the Earth quakes section at http://www.emsd.ru/ ~ssl/monitor ing/main.htm. THE LEADING PRINCIPLES IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE STATE OF VOLCANOES AND FORECASTS OF THEIR ACTIVITY FROM SEISMOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS The seismic signals recorded on active volcanoes are used to distinguish two levels of seismic activity based on the number of earthquakes and their distri bution in space and time, the energy released, as well as the spectral content of the signals and other param eters: the background (or normal) and the above back ground (or higher) level. The concept of background activity is specific to each individual volcano; it is to be estimated based on collected experience. The back ground activity level is characterized by the absence of volcanic events that would pose a real danger (ash emissions, lava flows, and avalanches consisting of incandescent material). When a higher seismicity is recorded on a volcano it means that the volcano in question is not quiet and is a source of some hazard. The warning system that recognizes higher volcanic hazard is based on this con cept, without any further detail in the form of other parameters. The system is implemented using a four color scale of hazard codes. The first organization to use such a scale was the Alaska Volcano Observatory, which issued reports on the degree of volcanic hazard for aircraft. One important supplement to this scale Vol. 7
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SENYUKOV Telemetered network in the area of Northern Volcanic Cluster
Shiveluch Volc.
№1
SRK SMK BDR
KLY
SRD
58.0 N Krestovskii Volc.
CIR LCN Klyuchevskoi
KZY
BZW Ushkovskii Volc. KPTKIRB
Ploskii Tolbachik ZM volc.
Volc.
Bezymyannyi Volc.
BZG
KMN
SRK SL SNK BDR
№1 56.0 N
SRD
KS
KLY
KZYUS
Kam chat ka
TUM
GM
KZV
KZ KM KC KR
UZ
Pacifi c Oce an
Sea of Okhot sk
IH
54.0 N
KBT
KL
BZ KPT TL KMN
MKZ KH
BS KI MS KRY DZ GNL KRX
KK JP AV
INS PET
NLC
SPN
Telemetered network in the area of Avacha Volcanic Cluster
GR MIP OP
52.0 N
MTV GRL MT RUS ASA
Koryakskii Volc. KRE KRK SDL AVH
SMA
Avacha Volc.
KS JL IL KO
UGL KB
Al
0 km
100 km ALD
155.0 E
MIP
– TSS stations
159.0 E
GR
№2
volcanoes: open symbols mean no seismicity control stippled symbols mean unreliable seismicity control filled symbols mean reliable seismicity control
Fig. 1. The network of telemetered seismograph stations and active volcanoes. Volcano codes and names: SL Shiveluch, KL Kly uchevskoi, US Ushkovskii, BZ Bezymyannyi, TL Ploskii Tolbachik, IH Ichinskii, KZ Kizimen, GM Gamchen, KM Komarova, KC Kronotskii, KR Krasheninnikova, KH Kikhpinych, UZ Uzon, BS Bol’shoi Semyachik, MS Malyi Semyachik, KI Karym skii, DZ Dzenzur, JP Zhupanovskii, KK Koryakskii, AV Avacha, GR Gorelyi, MT Mutnovskii, OP Opala, KS Ksudach, JL Zhel tovskii, IL Il’inskii, KO Koshelevskii, KB Kambal’nyi. JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY
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was to ascribe a color code to volcanic hazard based on the seismic activity that was recorded during a partic ular day. To do this, a fixed number, energy, and type of seismic events was set in correspondence with each color code for each specific volcano. In this way it became possible to quickly (in real time) estimate the state of volcanoes and present the recorded results on the internet http://www.emsd.ru/~ssl/monitor ing/main.htm in a simple and convenient format. The gradual acquisition, storage, and investigation of recorded data for different states of volcanoes fur nished a basis for forecasts of volcanic eruptions. The forecast of a possible eruption (or a warning of increased activity at a volcano) with indication of eruption type and start time, eruption vigor and dura tion, as well as the degree of hazard it poses for the local residents is only issued when strong grounds for doing so exist; a document to the purpose when sub scribed by the authors is transferred to the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council (KB REC) on Earthquake Prediction and Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Risk. Strong grounds for issuing a forecast consist of the following: Higher seismicity is recorded on the volcano; The dynamics of the evolution of seismic activity conforms to the type scenario developed for the precur sory period of a volcanic eruption. The type scenario can be determined on by recording several eruptions on the volcano, identifying characteristic signs of an erup tion, and estimating their quantitative parameters. A scenario usually includes the sequence of precursors that reflect the mechanism operating during the precur sory period of the volcano before an eruption. The first official forecast was transferred to the KB REC in January 2005. Sufficient experience had been gained by 2011 for reliable estimation of the state and for forecasting the activity levels of Bezymyannyi and Klyuchevskoi volcanoes. This made it possible to develop eight successful shortterm forecasts of ten explosive eruptions on Bezymyannyi Volcano [Senyukov, 2008, 2010] and to produce three success ful intermediateterm forecasts for the evolution of activity on Klyuchevskoi Volcano [Senyukov et al., 2009] during the period 2004–2010. A successful fore cast was made for an explosive eruption of Kizimen Volcano by the end of 2010 [Senyukov et al., 2011a]; even though there was no experience in recording eruptions on this volcano with simultaneous seismo logical data, the success was due to accumulated expe rience in monitoring the Kamchatka volcanoes added to information from the literature on similar volcanoes of the world. The forecast was thus made with no empirical data for this particular volcano, but was merely based on general theoretical patterns. All the forecasts were registered at the KB REC with due ser tificate no. 28 as of December 29, 2011. Occurrences of varying degrees of volcanic activity were recorded in 2000–2010 for nine Kamchatka vol canoes of ten (for which detailed seismological moni JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY
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toring is possible). The information on the activities of these volcanoes was published in Zemletryaseniya Sev ernoi Evrazii, Zemletryaseniya Rossii annual issues and in Proceedings of conferences devoted to Volcanolo gist’s Day in PetropavlovskKamchatskii. The most interesting results for individual volcanoes were sum marized in [Senyukov et al., 2004a, 2004b] for Shive luch, in [Senyukov et al., 2004a, 2008, 2010; Thelen et al., 2010] for Bezymyannyi, in [Senyukov et al., 2006a, 2008, 2009] for Klyuchevskoi, in [Garbuzova and Sobolevskaya, 2008; Senyukov et al., 2011a] for Kizimen, in [Senyukov, 2003; Senyukov et al., 2006c; Kozhevnikova, 2008] for Karymskii, in [Melekestsev et al., 2002; Senyukov et al., 2006b] for Avacha, in [Senyukov and Nuzhdina, 2010] for Koryakskii, in al., 2002] for Mutnovskii. MONITORING EXPLOSIVE ERUPTIONS USING SEISMOLOGICAL DATA The assessment of volcanic hazard by remote tech niques, independently of weather conditions and the presence of human observers, remains an urgent prob lem at present, primarily for aircraft safety [Kir’yanov et al., 2001; Neal et al., 2009]. Seismic monitoring has undoubted advantages over the other methods for dealing with this problem, because the data are acces sible in real time, are continuous, and are not affected by weather and the time of the day. It is international practice to use seismological data to determine the start and duration of explosive eruptions that pose the greatest hazard to flights. Senyukov et al. [2004b] proposed an original empirical technique to detect ash emissions and esti mate their height using Shiveluch Volcano as an exam ple. The technique is original in two respects. (1) The use of a spectraltemporal analysis showed a relative increase in frequency from 1 Hz to 2–4 Hz over time for signals that accompany ash emissions at Shiveluch, and this permitted separation of these from the signals that are recorded around the volcano. A similar increase was also recorded by combined seis mic and acoustic observations [Chouet et al., 2003; Ripepe et al., 2001] on other volcanoes. The modeling that was carried out by Ripepe et al. [2001] showed that an original lowfrequency pulse on the seismic record can be generated by gas rapidly rising in a magma column, while the subsequent highfrequency pulse is generated by a gas bubble exploding at the sur face. It should also be noted that a shock sound wave due to an explosion can be recorded in later arrivals on a seismic record that stores traces of ash emissions [Zobin et al., 2006]. A sound wave contains higher fre quencies compared with seismic waves, thus enhanc ing the percentage of highfrequency components in the signal. (2) Continuous video observation revealed a corre lation between the amplitude of the seismicsignal envelope (the absolute ground motion velocity) that Vol. 7
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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Integral of absolute velocity, µm
6000
Fig. 2. The correlation between the height of ash plumes on Shiveluch Volcano and the integral of absolute velocity from recordings at the SVL station for 255 cases recorded by visual, photographic, and video observations in 1999– 2004.
accompanies an ash plume and the rate at which the ash cloud rises. The correlation logically leads to deri vation of the ash emission height as a function of inte grated absolute velocity (cumulative absolute dis placement). Height estimation thus involves signal duration, as well as signal amplitude.
Height above crater, m
Figures 2–5 compare the height of ash emissions and the integral of absolute velocity for Shiveluch, Karymskii, Kizimen, and Bezymyannyi volcanoes individually [Senyukov et al., 2011b]. The use of this method in real time for four active volcanoes (Shive luch, Karymskii, Bezymyannyi, and Kizimen) showed its high efficiency in the absence of visual and video observations. It permitted the fastest sufficiently accu rate (for actual practice) estimate of ash plume height. It can be gathered from our experience that the height uncertainty based on seismological data is about as accurate as that based on satellite observations and is 30% of the height on average. This method was used between January 1, 2006 and May 1, 2011 to issue over 680 urgent reports within the international KVERT project [Kir’yanov et al., 2001; Neal et al., 2009] con cerning the ash emissions that posed some hazard for flights: 400 for Shiveluch, 230 for Karymskii, 10 for Bezymyannyi, and 46 for Kizimen. In compliance 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
1000 2000 3000 4000 Integral of absolute velocity, µm
5000
Fig. 3. The correlation between the height of ash plumes on Karymskii Volcano and the integral of absolute velocity as observed at the KRY station for 70 cases recorded by visual, photographic, and video observations in 2004– 2007.
with the regulations, these reports (in English) were sent as quickly as possible to the KVERT participants (AVO and IV&S), to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers at Tokyo, Anchorage and Washington, as well as to the Eli zovo Weather Center and to the Chief ME Agency for Kamchatka Region (over 300 addresses in all). It has not been possible to use this method to esti mate the height of ash plumes on Klyuchevskoi Vol cano, because the respective signal could not be detected against the background of the strong volcanic tremor that accompanies the summit eruptions of this volcano. PREDICTION OF ACTIVITY FOR KAMCHATKA VOLCANOES IN 2004–2010 Bezymyannyi Volcano has the coordinates of its summit 55°58′ N, 160°35′ E. The summit has an abso lute altitude of 2869 m. The last catastrophic eruption occurred on March 30, 1956 following a 900–1000 year quiet period [Deistvuyushchie vulkany …, 1991]. This event was followed by 1–2 explosive eruptions per year hurling ash to heights of 6 to 15 km above sea level. The 1957–1961 eruptions were preceded by seis mic precursors in the form of swarms of shallow earth quakes, and when this took place, Tokarev alerted as to possible eruptions in October 1959, April 1960, and in March 1961 [Tokarev, 1966]. Chubarova [1995] stud ied the seismicity of Bezymyannyi in 1971–1994 to conclude that “The energy of earthquakes connected with the Bezymyannyi eruptions during the period 1971–1994 was below that during the initial phase of the eruptive cycle. Several earthquakes had magni tudes M = 5 (KS = 12.1) in 1955–1956 [Fedotov, 1972], magnitudes reaching 3 (KS = 9.1) in 1957– 1970, while during the last decades it was only largest earthquake, with a magnitude M = 2 (KS = 7.6), which occurred in 1977 before an eruption that discharged a lava flow. The short duration or nearly complete absence of seismic precursory processes at levels greater than M = 0 (KS = 4.6), which can be deter mined from data recorded at the nearest seismograph
Height above summit, m
Height above dome, m
90
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
500 1000 1500 Integral of absolute velocity, µm
2000
Fig. 4. The correlation between the height of ash emissions on Kizimen Volcano and the integral of absolute velocity as observed at the KZV station for 19 cases recorded by visual, photographic, and video observations in 2011.
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10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
5000 10000 15000 Integral of absolute velocity, µm
b
12000 Height above summit, m
Height above summit, m
12000
91
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2 4 6 8 Integral of squared velocity, m2/s × 10–8
20000
Fig. 5. The correlation of the height of ash plumes on Bezymyannyi Volcano: (a) with the integral of absolute velocity, (b) with the integral of squared velocity. The analysis involved records of the LGN station for nine cases recorded by visual, photographic, and video observations.
station, do not lend themselves to predicting Bezymy annyi eruptions from seismological data, as was the case in 1950–1960.” The numerous moderatesize explosive eruptions that occurred on Bezymyannyi during nearly 40 years, eruptions that posed real haz ards, were not predicted, not a single one, with indica tion of the time the eruption was to start from seismo logical data. The main cause of this state of affairs seems to have been due to a bad seismic network. Seven eruptions were recorded and studied on Bez ymyannyi from February 2000 to February 2004. These studies resulted in the first algorithm for pre dicting eruptions of this volcano in May 2004 based on seismological and satellite data [Senyukov, 2008]. The algorithm for the prediction of Bezymyannyi erup tions was defined as a formalized, realtime, decision making procedure based on accumulated data that states whether an eruption can occur. The algorithm for the prediction of Bezymyannyi eruptions (item no. 3 was included in the algorithm after the January 11, 2005 eruption) (see table):(1) The probability of a Bezymyannyi eruption is zero, when “background” normal seismicity is recorded in the Bezymyannyi area (not more than ten shallow earthquakes of KS ≥ 3.0 (Ml ≥ 0.75) per day or when there are no KS ≥ 4.0 (Ml ≥ 1.25) earthquakes) and the maximum temperature in the thermal anomaly at the volcano’s summit does not exceed the maximum tem perature of the anomaly from the lava flow discharged by the Second Cone of Northern Vent in the Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption (GTFE1975), which can be regarded as constant. (2) The probability of an eruption is 50%, when “higher” seismicity begins to be recorded in the volcano area (more than ten shallow earthquakes of KS ≥ 3.0 per day or at least a single one of KS ≥4.0 (Ml ≥ 1.25). (3) An eruption will occur during the future 30 days with a probability of 90%, when “above background” seismicity is recorded during the last 3 days and there is further growth in the number and energy of shallow JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY
earthquakes combined with increasing maximum temperature in the thermal anomaly on the volcano’s dome relative to the maximum temperature of the anomaly due to the lava flow from the Second Cone of Northern Vent (GTFE1975). (4) The time of eruption can be specified to within a week using daily data from the recording of precur sory seismicity. The eruption will occur during the future 7 days with a probability of 100% after seismic events begin to be recorded (more than five per day) alongside the higher seismicity; in our interpretation, these events accompany avalanches, which may indi cate uplift of the dome. Notes to the algorithm: (1) the intensity of the pre cursory earthquake swarm can be used to derive an approximate estimate for the magnitude of the future eruption by comparison to the intensity of precursory seismicity before past eruptions; (2) the available net work of automatic telemetered seismograph stations can be useful to all these studies, if the tremor on Kly uchevskoi does not exceed 1 µm/s at the CIR station. Results (table): (1) The forecasts for eruptions nos. 2–6, 8, and 9 were judged successful at the KB REC; (2) One forecast, that of July 12, 2008, did not come true; (3) Precursors were indeed recorded before erup tions 7 and 10, but no official forecasts were issued. The algorithm when used in real time, added to the experience gained, succeeded in successfully predict ing eight moderatesize explosive eruptions of Bezy myannyi of the ten that had been recorded between February 2004 and December 2010, there being a sin gle false alarm. The failurestopredict and the false alarm show that further studies are required to improve the algorithm using integrated seismological and satel lite data. It should also be remarked that at the time this paper was written, two more moderatesize explo sive eruptions on Bezymyannyi (April13, 2011 and Vol. 7
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Forecasts and results Time of reporting # the forecast Starting time of (UTC) eruption
Forecast Height of ash plume a.s.l.
Was transferred to organizations
Time of eruption, height of ash plume a.s.l.
Confirmation
1 2004, June 15
next 5 days
–
IVS(KVERT), June 18, 2004 from Seismic, satellite, AVO and KBGS 19:40 to 20:20 visual, and video UTC, more observations than 8 km
2 2005, January 6
next 7 days
–
IVS(KVERT), January 11, 2005 Seismic and satellite AVO and KBGS from 08:02 to 08:45 observations UTC KB REC
2005, January 10 next 7 days 3 2005, November 24
6–10 km
next 30 days
6–10 km
next 7 days
6–10 km
4 2006, May 2
next 30 days
6–10 km
May 6 (update)
next 7 days
6–10 km
next 30 days
6–10 km
next 7 days
6–15 km
next 14 days
6–15 km
November 28 (update)
5 2006, December 22 December 23 (update) 6 2007, May 10*
7
–
–
–
8 2008, August 12* next 7 days
6–15 km
9 2009, December 11
6–15 km
December 14 (update) 10
–
next 30 days next 7 days –
6–15 km –
KB REC, November 30, 2005 Seismic and satellite IVS(KVERT), from 12:00 to 13:15 observations AVO and KBGS UTC, more than 6 km KB REC, May 9, 2006 from IVS(KVERT), 08:21 to 08:45 AVO and KBGS UTC, 12–15 km
Seismic, satellite, visu al, and video observa tions
KB REC, IVS(KVERT), AVO, KBGS, CA ME KO
December 24, 2006 Seismic, satellite, and visual observations from 09:17 to 10:20 UTC, 13 km
KB REC, KBGS
May 11, 2007 from ~14:45 to ~15:10 UTC
–
1October 14 from Seismic, satellite, visu 14:27 to 16:30 UTC al, and video observa and October 15 tions from 02:23 to 14:00 UTC, 2007
KB REC, August 19, 2008 IVS(KVERT), from 10:30 AVO and KBGS to 11:15 UTC, >7 km
Seismic and satellite observations
Seismic and satellite observations
December 16, 2009 Seismic and satellite KB REC, observations IVS(KVERT), from 21:45 AVO and KBGS to ~24:00 UTC, >8 km –
May 31, 2010 from 12:34 to 12:50 UTC, 11 km
Seismic, satellite, visu al, and video observa tions
Note: * Marks forecasts based on satellite data only [Sobolevskaya and Senyukov, 2008]. IVS Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (KVERT Kamchatkan Volcano Eruption Response Team), AVO Alaska Volcano Observatory, KB REC Kamchatka Branch of Rus sian Expert Council, CA ME KO Chief Agency of Ministry of Emergencies for Kamchatka Region; a.s.l. above sea level. JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY
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March 8, 2012) occurred and were successfully pre dicted. Klyuchevskoi Volcano (summit coordinates are 56°04′ N, 160°38′ E) is the highest, active, and power ful basaltic volcano in the Kuril–Kamchatka volcanic area [Deistvuyushchie vulkany …, 1991]. The volcano’s height is ~4750 m. Five longcontinued eruptions occurred at the central crater of Klyuchevskoi in 2000–2010, producing powerful ash emissions and lava flows with no flank eruptions. Based on the results of seismological observations, one can distinguish the following periods in the vol cano’s activity [Senyukov et al., 2009]: a quiet period and a period of activation. The activation of a volcano is a time interval with the seismicity exceeding the “normal” or “background” level. When an activation terminated in an explosive or an explosive–effusive eruption, it included two periods: (1) precursory seis micity and (2) eruption. Precursory seismicity occu pies the time between the start of the activation and the eruption. The studies of this volcano recorded five periods of activation that terminated in eruptions at the central vent: (1) October 28, 2002 to February 27, 2004: March 21, 2003 was the day of first weak ash emissions 200 m high, with the ash rising to 500 m on April 15, 2003; a thermal anomaly was first detected on May 15, 2003; luminescence above the crater began on May 17; November–December was the time of the maximum amplitude of the volcanic tremor; maximum ash emis sions rose 2.5 km above the crater and the largest ther mal anomaly, on January 26, 2004; the volcanic tremor began rapidly to decrease in amplitude, as did the size of the thermal anomaly. It should be noted that no lava flows were poured out onto the volcano’s slopes during this eruption; (2) January 12 to April 28, 2005: a thermal anomaly appeared on January 15, luminescence in the crater began on January 16, bombs and ash plumes were first discharged on January 21, and a lava flow a few kilo meters long began to descend down the northwestern slope of the volcano on February 7. The lava flow was poured out and ash was hurled as high as 4 km above the crater during 2 months; the tremor amplitude experienced a dramatic drop on April 7; some discrete earthquakes began to occur at a depth of 30 km on April 11, and the seismicity level returned to normal again on April 29; (3) December 15, 2006 to July 27, 2007: a thermal anomaly appeared on December 15, 2006; the first weak ash emissions rising to 300 m were recorded on February 15, 2007; a lava flow began to descend along the Krestovskii trench on March 28; the maximum amplitudes of volcanic tremor and the maximum vol canic events occurred between April 15 and June 26, 2007: ash plumes as long as a few thousand kilometers were propagating to different directions depending on the wind at an altitude of 10–12 km above sea level, three lava flows a few kilometers long were discharged JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY
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onto the northwestern, northeastern, and southeast ern slopes of the volcano; during July the volcanic tremor amplitude considerably subsided, while ash emissions and lava flows stopped altogether; (4) June 4, 2008 to February 1, 2009: a thermal anomaly appeared on June 13, 2008, luminescence was first observed in the crater on October 8, 2008, lava began to flow down the northwestern slope on Novem ber 21, 2008, the first ash emissions were noticed on December 4, 2008, and finally the volcanic activity decreased and ceased in January 2009; (5) July 30 to December 7, 2010: activity appeared in the form of spatterings of hot magma in the crater on August 2, 2009; subsequently, the volcanic activity in the summit crater of Klyuchevskoi was recorded in the form of magma spatterings and weak ash emissions that did not rise higher than 300 m; in 2010 the summit eruption continued and was accompanied by powerful ash emissions that rose as high as 9 km above sea level and by lava flows a few kilometers in length; at the end of 2010 the eruption gradually ceased. The study of recorded repose and activation peri ods revealed the following scenario for the precursory process before a summit eruption of Klyuchevskoi. (1) An activation usually started by a swarm of deep earthquakes (as many as 100 events per day at depths 20 < h < 35 km and with classes KS ≤ 6.5). Unfortu nately, this precursor is not as unambiguous as could be desired, because all swarms are not invariably fol lowed by the migration of hypocenters toward the sur face, but all summit eruptions were preceded by numerous earthquakes at depths 20 < h < 35 km. (2) All summit eruptions were preceded by migra tion of hypocenters (96% of these events had energy classes 4.0 ≤ KS ≤ 6.0) from a depth around 30 km toward the volcano’s summit. The process is best revealed by the ascent of the center of seismic energy (CSE) [Fedotov et al., 1988; Senyukov et al., 2008, 2009], whose duration may be anything between a week and a few months. (3) As the CSE was approaching the surface, earth quakes of the fourth type began to be recorded fol lowed by volcanic tremor. It is usually degassing magma that is the source of earthquakes of the fourth type and of volcanic tremor on Klyuchevskoi. (4) As magma appeared in the crater, the first thing to be noticed was a thermal anomaly as recorded by satellites in the area of the Klyuchevskoi crater to be followed by ash emissions, spoutings of lava, or lava flowing down the slopes. Luminescence was usually observed in the crater during nighttime. It is the combination of all precursors, viz., the ascent of the center of seismic energy from a depth of ~30 km to the crater, the increasing occurrence of earthquakes of the fourth type (gas explosions), increasing amplitude of volcanic tremor, the appear ance of a thermal anomaly in the crater as deduced from satellite observations, that provides evidence of a Vol. 7
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new gasrich magma portion rising and producing new eruptions. The leading feature of all summit eruptions that have been recorded on Klyuchevskoi is a gradual growth of activity; hence, the prediction of such erup tions is less important compared with the sudden, powerful, explosive eruptions of Bezymyannyi. Never theless, the use of the above scenario in real time sug gested three intermediateterm forecasts for the evolu tion of Klyuchevskoi activity during the last four erup tions. Documents signed by LSVAS workers with an indication of eruption type, the starting and termina tion time, and the extent of volcanic activity, as well as the degree of hazard to population, were transferred to the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council (KB REC): (1) January 17, 2005, (2) February 20, 2007, (3) March 16, 2007, (4) July 1, 2008 (This fore cast was extended in force on October 2, 2008). All forecasts, except no. 2 as of February 20, 2007, pre dicting the evolution of activity for Klyuchevskoi were proven correct later and were acknowledged as suc cesses at the KB REC. Kizimen Volcano (summit coordinates are 55.13° N, 160.33° E, altitude 2375 m) is the southernmost of all active volcanoes in the Central Kamchatka Depres sion [Deistvuyushchie vulkany …, 1991]. It stands on the southeastern side of the Shchapino Graben and is confined to a system of largeamplitude normal faults; the faults strike northeast and are situated in the junc tion zone between this graben and the Tumrok Range horst. Two large earthquake swarms occurred in the area of Kizimen Volcano during the period of detailed seismological observations since 1961: (1) the 1963 Shchapino earthquake swarm [Gordeev et al., 2004b] and (2) the earthquake swarm that began in the spring of 2009 [Senyukov et al., 2011a]. While it was merely increased fumarole activity that was observed after the Shchapino swarm, the phenomena recorded during the second swarm included the appearance of new fumaroles to be followed by steamandgas emission that involved some ash and explosive eruptions after wards. As reported by the KB GS, a powerful swarm of earthquakes in the Kizimen area began to occur in April 2009 [Senyukov et al., 2011a]. Even though rather large and numerous earthquakes were occurring in the Kizimen area for more than 1.5 years, no exter nal changes were noticed in the volcano’s activity until October 2010, merely the emission of gases was recorded issuing from a longterm fumarole that is sit uated on the northern slope, 400 m below the summit. October 2010 saw the occurrence of the three largest earthquakes in the depth range between –2 and 3 km: (1) at 17:19 UTC on October 9 with KS = 10.9; (2) at 11:50 UTC on October 13 with KS = 10.2, and (3) at 10:06 UTC on October 19 with KS = 11.2 (Mc = 5.2). All these events caused shaking as strong as VI at the
Tumrok base, which is situated 10 km northeast of Kizimen Volcano. M. Zhukov made some photographs from out the Tumrok base where the following activity was seen (the data are discrete owing to visibility difficulties and opportunities for photographing): (1) the new fuma role was first photographed to be on the southeastern slope near the summit on October 16, 2010, while it was not present on October 10; (2) the first ash charged steamandgas emission ejected from the new fumarole was recorded on November 11, 2010, while there was no ash on November 9. Emission with ash as high as 1 km above the summit continued for several days and later considerably decreased in extent. As well, fresh ash was noticed to fall on the nearsummit part of the volcano. At 18:56 UTC on November 27, 2010 (Ks = 11.4, Mc = 5.0) and at 19:29 UTC (KS = 11.9, Mc = 5.3) two shallow earthquakes that were close in time and space occurred near the volcano. Such large double events are usually followed by strong volcanic erup tions (personal communication by Randall A. White, US Geological Survey). Double events provide evi dence of a moving intrusion as has been shown by international observations. Based on the aggregate of all recorded events, workers at the LSVAS reported to the KB REC on Earthquake Prediction and Assess ment of Seismic Hazard and Risk on November 29, 2010 that a large explosive eruption might occur on Kizimen Volcano. Seismic events were recorded on December 9, 2010 that could accompany gas explo sions with debris avalanches, and volcanic tremor began to be recorded. The largest seismic event occurred at 16:20 UTC on December 9 and lasted 20 minutes. Judging from visual observations made at the Ipuin base 25 km west of Kizimen Volcano (the observer was E. Vlasov, a worker at the Kronotskii Nature Reserve), periodic grey ash emissions were noticed at ten in the morning local time on December 10 (or at 23:00 UTC on December 9); the ash was blown off by a strong wind (wind velocity was ~10 m/s, from south to north), so that their height was not above the volcano’s summit. The AVO reported the appearance of a bright ther mal anomaly in the area of Kizimen Volcano as seen in images that were made from satellite at 23:13 UTC (December 9) and at 01:50 UTC (December 10), indi cating that hot material was close to the surface. Based on these observations, LSVAS workers reported on December 10, 2010 to the KB REC and to the partic ipants of the KVERT project (AVO and IV&S) their forecast of probable developments at Kizimen: “…All evidence as reported points to an activation of the vol cano, destruction of its edifice, and to a preparatory process before a large explosive eruption (VEI = 3–4), which can occur during next 30 days.” A series of shallow seismic events that lasted 20 minutes was recorded at 19:49 UTC on Decem
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ber 12, 2010; this series accompanied a large explosive eruption of Kizimen. AVO satellite observations recorded (20:30 and 21:30 UTC) an ash plume going at a height of about 10 km from Kizimen northwest through the villages of Kozyrevsk and Tigil’. Ash began to fall at the village of Kozyrevsk at 20:00 UTC and at Tigil’ at 23:30 UTC. Subsequently, until the end of that year, the occurrences involved seismic activity in the form of numerous, small, local, shallow earthquakes and weak volcanic tremor, and volcanic activity in the form of ash emissions. Another series of shallow seis mic events lasting 20 minutes was recorded at 17:56 UTC on December 31, simultaneously with a large explosive eruption of Kizimen. According to satellite observations, the ash plume that was due to this event propagated southwest. CONCLUSIONS The system for monitoring the state of Kamchatka volcanoes developed at the KB GS RAS demonstrated a high efficiency in 2000–2010. Currently the daily acquisition, processing, and presentation of data on volcanic activity conducted at the KB GS RAS http://www.emsd.ru/~ssl/monitoring/main.htm is used for timely and reliable assessment of the state of volcanoes and for drawing conclusions as to volcanic hazard. Urgent information on volcanic hazard is transmit ted via electronic mail or by telephone to the CA ME of Kamchatka Region, as well as to the AVO and IV&S FEB RAS (for the KVERT) within the framework of the international KVERT project. By 2011 we had accumulated sufficient expertise, not only to be able to make reliable inferences con cerning the states of Klyuchevskoi and Bezymyannyi volcanoes, but also to predict their activity levels. We made successful forecasts for eight moderatesize explosive eruptions of Bezymyannyi of ten cases and three successful intermediateterm forecasts for the evolution of activity on Klyuchevskoi of four cases. As well, a successful forecast of an explosive eruption on Kizimen Volcano was made in the absence of any seis mic recordings during eruptions on this volcano, with the success being achieved through accumulated expe rience in the monitoring of Kamchatka volcanoes and the use of the literature concerning similar volcanoes worldwide. Among the possible main lines of study in order to improve the volcanic monitoring system we note the following points: Expanding the network of telemetered seismic sta tions on active volcanoes in Kamchatka with installa tion of digital broadband seismometers at the stations; Developing methods for monitoring volcanic activity; JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY
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The creation of databases containing multidisci plinary observations of volcanic eruptions using satel lite and video information; Organizing information–analytical expert systems for assessing the state of and forecasts of volcanic activity. REFERENCES Chebrov, V.N., The Development of Seismological Obser vations, Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Kamchatka: 1915–2006, in Sovremennye metody obrabotki i interpretatsii seismologicheskikh dannykh: Mater. Mezhdunarodnoi seis mologicheskoi shkoly (Contemporary Methods in the Pro cessing and Interpretation of Seismological Data: Materials of the Intern. Seismol. School), Obninsk: GS RAN, 2006, pp. 135–139. Chubarova, O.S., Bezymyanny Volcano (Kamchatka). Seismic Accompaniment of the Novy Dome Growth in 1971–1994, Geophysics and Environment, IUGG XXI Gen eral Assembly, Boulder, Colorado, July, pp. 2–14. Chouet, B., Dawson, P., Ohminato, T., et al., Source Mechanisms of Explosions at Stromboli Volcano, Italy, Determined from MomentTensor Inversions of Very LongPeriod Data, J. Geophys. Res., 2003, vol. 108, no. (B1), pp. 2019–2044. Deistvuyushchie vulkany Kamchatki (Active Volcanoes of Kamchatka), vol. 1, Fedotov, S.A. and Masurenkov, Yu.P., Eds., Moscow: Nauka, 1991. Droznin, D.V. and Droznina, S.Ya., The DIMAS Interactive Program for Seismic Signal Processing, Seismicheskie Pri bory, Moscow: IFZ RAN, 2010, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 22–34. Fedotov, S.A. Energeticheskaya klassifikatsiya KuriloKam chatskikh zemletryasenii i problema magnitud (The Energy Classification of Earthquakes and the Magnitude Problem), Moscow: Nauka, 1972. Fedotov, S.A., Zharinov, N.A., and Gorel’chik, V.I., Ground Deformation and Earthquakes on Klyuchevskoi Volcano, a Model of Its Activity, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1988, no. 2, p. 4–42 [Engl. transl.: Volcanol. and Seismol., 1990, no. 2, pp. 165–225]. Fedotov, S.A., Dvigalo, V.N., Zharinov, N.A., et al., The May–July 2001 Eruption of Shiveluch Volcano, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2001, no. 6, pp. 3–15. Garbuzova, V.T. and Sobolevskaya, O.V., The 1996–2007 Seismicity in the Area of Kizimen Volcano, in Geofizicheskii monitoring i problemy seismicheskoi bezopasnosti Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii (Geophysical Monitoring and Problems of Seismic Safety for the Russian Far East), Petropavlovsk Kamchatskii, November 11–17, 2007, vol. 1, Petropav lovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2008, pp. 64–68. Gordeev, E.I., Chebrov, V.N., Droznin, D.V., et al., The Acquisition, Processing, and Storage of Seismological Data, in Kompleksnye seismologicheskie i geofizicheskie issle dovaniya Kamchatki (Multidisciplinary Seismological and Geophysical Investigations of Kamchatka), Moscow: Nauka, 2004a, pp. 43–61. Gordeev, E.I., Gusev, A.A., Levina, V.I., et al., The Crustal Seismicity of Kamchatka, in Kompleksnye seismologicheskie i geofizicheskie issledovaniya Kamchatki (Multidisciplinary Seismological and Geophysical Investigations of Kam chatka), Moscow: Nauka, 2004b, pp. 62–74. Vol. 7
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Gordeev, E.I., Chebrov, V.N., Levina, V.I., et al., The Sys tem of Seismological Observation in Kamchatka, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2006, no. 3, pp. 6–27. Gordeev, E.I., Chebrov, V.N., Levina, V.I., et al., The Seis mological Data Bank in Kamchatka, Otkrytoe Obrazovanie, 2008, no. 4, pp. 16–22. Gordeev, E.I., Chebrov, V.N., Senyukov, S.L., et al., Infor mation Resources for Volcanological Research in Kam chatka, Otkrytoe Obrazovanie, 2010, no. 5(82), pp. 73–82. Gorshkov, G.S., On the relationship between Volcanic and Seismic Phenomena during the 1955–1956 Bezymyannyi Eruption, Bull. Vulkanol. Stants., 1961, no. 31, pp.32–37. Ivanov, V.V., Forecasts of Major Volcanic Eruptions in Kamchatka and their Success Rate, Vestnik DVO RAN, 2003, no. 5, pp. 97–108. Kir’yanov, V.Yu., Chubarova, O.S., Senyukov, S.L., et al., The Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT): Eight Years of Activity, in Geodinamika i vul kanizm KuriloKamchatskoi ostrovoduzhnoi sistemy (The Geodynamics and Volcanism of the Kuril–Kamchatka Island Arc System), PetropavlovskKamchatskii: IVGiG DVO RAN, 2001, pp. 408–423. Kozhevnikova, T.Yu., An Electronic Base of Standard Seis mic Signals and Associated Volcanic Events for Karymskii Volcano, in Geofizicheskii monitoring i problemy seis micheskoi bezopasnosti Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii (Geophysi cal Monitoring and Problems of Seismic Safety for the Rus sian Far East), PetropavlovskKamchatskii, November 11– 17, 2007, vol. 1, PetropavlovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2008, pp. 171–175. Melekestsev, I.V., Seliverstov, N.I., and Senyukov, S.L., A Report on the October 2001 Activation of Avacha Volcano, Kamchatka and the 2001 Studies, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2002, no. 2, pp. 79–80. Neal, C., Girina, O., Senyukov, S., et al., Russian Eruption Warning System for Aviation, Nat. Hazards, 2009, vol. 51, pp. 245–262. Ripepe, M., Ciliberto, S., and Della Schiava, M., Time Constraints for Modeling Source Dynamics of Volcanic Explosions at Stromboli, J. Geophys. Res., 2001, vol. 106, pp. 8713–8727. Senyukov, S.L., Velocity Models of Karymskii Volcano Deduced from Recordings of Local Earthquakes, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2003, no. 1, pp. 54–63. Senyukov, S.L., Monitoring the Activity of Kamchatka Vol canoes by Remote Sensing Techniques in 2000–2004, Vul kanol. Seismol., 2006, no. 3, pp. 68–78. Senyukov, S.L., On the Possibility of Successful Forecasting of Eruptions on Bezymyannyi Volcano Depending on the State of Klyuchevskoi Volcano. Seismological Proofs of an Interaction between the Magmatic Systems of the Two Vol canoes, in Trudy Vtoroi regional’noi nauchnotekhn. konf. Problemy kompleksnogo geofizicheskogo monitoringa Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii (Proc. 2nd regional conf. Problems in the Multidisciplinary Geophysical Monitoring of the Rus sian Far East), PetropavlovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2010, pp. 239–243. Senyukov, S.L., Droznina, S.Ya., Nuzhdina, I.N., et al., Studies of Activity on Shiveluch and Bezymyannyi Volca noes in 2000–2003 by Remote Techniques of Observation, in Kompleksnye seismologicheskie i geofizicheskie issledo vaniya Kamchatki (Multidisciplinary Seismological and
Geophysical Studies of Kamchatka), PetropavlovskKam chatskii: KBGS, RAS, 2004a, pp. 301–318. Senyukov, S.L., Droznina, S.Ya, and Droznin, D.V., Iden tification of Ash Ejections and Estimation of their Height Based on Seismic Data for Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka, in: Kompleksnye seismologicheskie i geofizicheskie issledo vaniya Kamchatki (Multidisciplinary Seismological and Geophysical Studies of Kamchatka), PetropavlovskKam chatskii: KBGS, RAS, 2004b, pp. 292–300. Senyukov, S.L., Applications of an Algorithm for Predicting Eruptions of Bezymyannyi Volcano in 2004–2007 in Real Time, in Geofizicheskii monitoring i problemy seismicheskoi bezopasnosti Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii (Geophysical Moni toring and Problems of Seismic Safety for the Russian Far East), PetropavlovskKamchatskii, November 11–17, 2007, vol. 1, PetropavlovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2008, pp. 59–63. Senyukov, S.L., Droznina, S.Ya., Nuzhdina, D.V., et al., Studies of Klyuchevskoi Volcano Activity by Remote Sens ing Techniques in 2001–2005, in Materialy nauchnotekh nicheskoi konferentsii Geofizicheskii monitoring Kamchatki, PetropavlovskKamchatskii, January 17–18, 2006, Petro pavlovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2006a, pp. 94–100. Senyukov, S.L., Nuzhdina, I.N., Droznina, S.Ya., et al., The Seismicity of Avacha Volcano in 1994–2005, in Mate rialy nauchnotekhnicheskoi konferentsii Geofizicheskii mon itoring Kamchatki, PetropavlovskKamchatskii, January 17–18, 2006, PetropavlovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2006b, pp. 101–105. Senyukov, S.L., Nuzhdina, I.N., Droznina, S.Ya., et al., Studies of Karymskii Volcano Activity by Remote Sensing Techniques in 2001–2005, in Materialy nauchnotekh nicheskoi konferentsii Geofizicheskii monitoring Kamchatki, PetropavlovskKamchatskii, January 17–18, 2006, Petro pavlovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2006b, pp. 202–206. Senyukov, S.L., Nuzhdina, I.N., and Droznina, S.Ya, A SpatioTemporal Analysis of Klyuchevskoi Volcano for 1999–2007, in Geofizicheskii monitoring i problemy seis micheskoi bezopasnosti Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii (Geophysi cal Monitoring and Problems of Seismic Safety for the Rus sian Far East), PetropavlovskKamchatskii, November 11– 17, 2007, vol. 1, PetropavlovskKamchatskii: GS RAN, 2008, pp. 120–124. Senyukov, S.L., Droznina, S.Ya., Nuzhdina, I.N., et al., Studies in the Activity of Klyuchevskoi Volcano by Remote Sensing Techniques between January 1, 2001 and July 31, 2005, J. Volcanol. Seismol., 2009, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 191–199. Senyukov, S.L. and Nuzhdina, I.N., The 1966–2009 Seis micity of Koryakskii Volcano, in Trudy Vtoroi regional’noi nauchnotekhn. konf. Problemy kompleksnogo geofiz icheskogo monitoringa Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii (Proc. 2nd regional conf. Problems in the Multidisciplinary Geophysical Monitoring of the Russian Far East), PetropavlovskKam chatskii: GS RAN, 2010, pp. 91–95. Senyukov, S.L., Nuzhdina, I.N., Droznina, S.Ya., et al., The Seismicity of Kizimen Volcano, in Trudy Tret’ei nauchnotekhnicheskoi konferentsii “Problemy kompleks nogo geofizicheskogo monitoringa Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii” (Proc. Third sci. conf. on Problems in the Multidisciplinary Geophysical Monitoring of the Russian Far East), Petropav lovskKamchatskii, October 9–15, 2011, Obninsk: GS RAN, 2011a, pp. 140–144.
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Tokarev, P.I., Prediction of Location and Starting Time of the Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption in July 1975, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 1976, vol. 229, no. 2, pp. 439–442. Tokarev, P.I., Vulkanicheskie zemletryaseniya Kamchatki (Volcanic Earthquakes of Kamchatka), Moscow: Nauka, 1981. Tokarev, P.I., A Forecast for the March 1983 Flank Eruption on Klyuchevskoi Volcano, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1983, no. 5, pp. 3–8. Tokarev, P.I., Precursors of Volcanic Eruptions, Vulkanol. Seismol., 1985, no. 4, pp. 108–119. Tokarev, P.I., Prediction of Flank Eruptions at Klyuchev skoi Volcano, Volcanol. Seismol., 1990, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 917–943 [Russian: 1988, no. 6, pp. 47–61]. Yashchuk, V.V., Droznin, D.V., Lyannik, Yu.A., et al., The Network of Telemetered Seismograph Stations in Kam chatka, Abstr. Vtoroi regional’noi nauchnotekhnicheskoi konferentsii “Problemy kompleksnogo geofizicheskogo moni toringa Dal’nego Vostoka Rossii” (Proceedings of the second conference on Problems in the Multidisciplinary Geophysical Monitoring of the Russian Far East), PetropavlovskKam chatskii, October 11–18, 2009, PetropavlovskKam chatskii: GS RAN, 2009, p. 50. Zelenskii, M.E., Ovsyannikov, A.A., Gavrilenko, G.M., and Senyukov, S.L., The March 17, 2000 Eruption of Mut novskii Volcano, Kamchatka, Vulkanol. Seismol., 2002, no. 6, pp. 25–28. Zobin, V.M., NavarroOchoa, C.J., and ReyesDa vila, G.A., Seismic Quantification of the Explosions that Destroyed the Dome of Volcan De Colima, Mexico, in July August 2003, Bull. Volcanol, 2006, vol. 69, pp. 141–147.
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