MORNING MARKET UPDATE 24 May 2018 11:13
CURRENCY UPDATE
Rates (Ask) USD/INR EUR/USD GBP/USD EUR/INR GBP/INR AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD
68.3400 1.1704 1.3366 79.9760 91.3330 0.7562 109.48 0.9935 1.2854
USDINR Forwards (Ask) MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
2.00 25.25 48.50 71.25 92.75 118.25 140.75 164.00 186.25 207.75 230.00 #NAME?
Market Commentary RUPEE - The Indian rupee was at 68.32/68.33 per dollar, against its previous close of 68.42/68.43, in line with strength in most regional currencies, as U.S. Treasury yields fell below 3% following the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes . MAJOR CURRENCIES- The dollar lost momentum on Thursday after the double-whammy of dovish-looking minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting and the threat by U.S. President Donald Trump of imposing new tariffs on imported cars.The euro was hampered by concerns over an economic slowdown in the currency bloc and political risks in Italy, staying near a six-month low against the dollar and a nine-month nadir versus the yen.Against the yen, the dollar shed as much as 0.6 percent to 109.45 yen a day after it had fallen 0.73 percent, its biggest fall in nearly three months. It last stood at 109.61 yen, down 0.4 percent on the day.The euro bounced back slightly to $1.1705 after hitting a sixmonth low of $1.1676 on Wednesday but the common currency was held back by economic and political worries in Europe. OTHERS - The Australian and New Zealand dollars rebounded on Thursday, as the greenback lost momentum after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting were seen as dovish, but gains were tempered on renewed fears of a U.S.-led trade war. The Australian dollar added 0.1 percent to $0.7565 from a low of $0.7523 touched on Wednesday. The Aussie has fallen in each of the past three months but is set for a small gain in May.The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.6921, well above a recent five-month trough of $0.6851 set
Technical Strategy EUR/USD - EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1706. The pair is currently trading above the support level of 1.1617. The RSI is suggesting upward movement for the pair. For the day, the pair is expected to take support at 1.1617 and the resistance at 1.923 level. c USD/INR - USD/INR is currently trading at 68.1522. The pair is currently trading below the resistance level of 68.6991. The RSI is suggesting steady movment for the pair. For the day the pair may take support at 67.8921 and take resistance at 68.6991 level.
LIBOR 1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y
USD 1.9597 2.1011 2.3300 2.4975 2.7541
EURO -0.3994 -0.3767 -0.3520 -0.3100 -0.2297
JPY -0.0461 -0.0535 -0.0327 0.0195 0.1188
USD IRS (Ask) 1Y 2Y 5Y 10Y
2.5290 2.7400 2.9180 3.0210
MIFOR (Mid) / OIS (Mid) MIFOR 1Y 2Y 5Y 10Y
6.75 7.19 7.27
OIS 6.80 6.90 7.22 7.31 Source: Thomson Reuters, IDBI Bank Ltd.
Source: Thomson Reuters, IDBI Bank Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Equities, Commodities and Bonds
Equity Markets (% Change)
SENSEX Nifty Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE CAC DAX Hang Seng Nikkei
34514.51 10466.80 24886.81 7425.96 7788.44 5565.85 12976.84 30658.86 22391.05
0.49 0.35 0.21 0.64 -1.14 -1.33 -1.49 -0.02 -1.33
Crude/Bullion
STOCKS(US & Europe) U.S. stocks ended with small gains on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting suggested higher inflation may not result in faster interest rate hikes The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 52.4 points, or 0.21 percent, to 24,886.81, the S&P 500 gained 8.85 points, or 0.32 percent, to 2,733.29 and the Nasdaq Composite added 47.50 points, or 0.64 percent, to 7,425.96.The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 42 new lows.. STOCKS(Asia) Asian shares fell on Thursday after the U.S. government launched a national security probe into auto imports that could lead to new tariffs, and President Donald Trump's comments indicated fresh setbacks in U.S.-China trade talks.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.1 percent higher, but Japan's Nikkei stock index fell 1.2 percent as auto shares slumped. South Korea's KOSPI lost 0.3 percent. The dollar was down 0.6 percent against the yen to 109.44. The euro was up 0.1 percent on the day at $1.1709. The dollar index which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was 0.2 percent lower at 93.839.
(In $)
Crude Oil(WTI)
Gold Silver
71.58 1294.58 16.442
FII/MF Cash
(In cr `) -2,599.48 -1,426.22 -24,899.95 1,12,012.21 0
FII Cash Flow MF Cash Flow FII CY 2018 MF CY 2018
Money Rates CALL Rate O/N Mibor LAF (cr `) 91 - T Bill 1y G Sec 5y G Sec 10y G sec
6.10 6.10 -3062.00 6.40 6.989 7.84 7.847
OIL Oil prices fell on Thursday on expectations that OPEC members will step up production in the face of worries over supply from both Venezuela and Iran.A surprise build up in crude oil inventories in the United States also weighed on prices, driving the spread between Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) close to its widest in three years.International benchmark Brent futures were down 27 cents, or 0.34 percent, at $79.53 per barrel at 0300 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 17 cents, or 0.24 percent, at $71.67 a barrel. GOLD Gold prices edged higher for a second session on Thursday as the dollar extended losses after minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a dovish approach to interest rate hikes in the United States.Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,295.16 per ounce at 0359 GMT, after gaining nearly 0.2 percent in the previous session.U.S. gold futures for June delivery were up 0.4 percent at $1,294.60 per ounce. BONDS (U.S.) U.S. Treasury yields held at lower levels on Wednesday after minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that most Fed policymakers thought it likely another interest rate increase would be warranted "soon" if the U.S. economic outlook remains intact.
INBMK 4Y 7Y 10Y
Indian Money Market 7.84 8.052 7.847
US Treasury 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y
2.6468 2.8124 2.935 2.988
CALL- India's one-day cash rate was at 6.05%/6.10%, against 5.90%/5.95% previous close. BONDS- The benchmark 10-year bond was at 95.50 rupees, yielding 7.84%, against 95.46 rupees, yielding 7.85%, at previous close, as U.S. Treasury yields came off recent highs, with the 10-year yield falling below 3%, after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. .
IRS- The one-year and the benchmark five-year swap rates were down to 6.78% and 7.20%, respectively, from 6.81% and 7.22% at previous close.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Economic data/Indicators ACTUAL 0.40% 56.50
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR) USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (MAY P)
EXPECTED
PREVIOUS
0.50% 56.50
0.10% 56.50
UK April CPI came in below expectations at 2.4% y/y (exp 2.5%, prev 2.5%) as lower house prices and lower air fares accommodating the Easter holiday offset higher crude prices. The monthly reading was 0.4% (exp 0.5%, prev 0.1%). Core inflation was also slightly below forecasts at 0.4% m/m (exp 0.5%, prev 0.2%) and 2.1% y/y (exp 2.2%, prev 2.3%). June Gilts gapped 20 ticks higher on the data to 122.20, but have already tracked back to be last at 122.11. Bucking the trend set by Germany and France earlier in the day, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI from Markit was 56.6 in May, compared to 56.5 in April. The consensus among economists surveyed by reuters called for no change between April and May. This was the strongest flash reading since September 2014 The average final reading over the previous three months is 55.8 and that over the previous six months is 55.3.
Upcoming Economic Data/Events ACTUAL USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 19) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
EXPECTED
PREVIOUS
220k 0.50%
222k 0.50%
Currency Futures & Options Instrument* Futures Options Futures Options Futures Options Futures Options Abhijit Mishra
Underlying USDINR USDINR GBPINR GBPINR EURINR EURINR JPYINR JPYINR Total
Volume 5,32,082 4,52,429 12,691 10 23,041 185 4,380 50 10,24,868
Value (in cr) 3,636.77 3,083.91 115.94 0.09 184.53 1.49 27.37 0.31 7,050.41
OI 51,83,817 34,11,306 67,522 9,001 1,14,482 16,520 34,294 3,182 88,40,124
No. of trades 14,058 10,187 1,154 1 1,937 30 699 7 28,073
Volume 4,11,203 18,527 11,601 3,598
Value (in cr) 2,808.66 148.22 105.93 22.46
OI 30,78,797 58,785 41,839 21,868
No. of trades 10,291 1,519 965 505
[email protected]
91-22-66263510
Contract* USDINR 290518 EURINR 290518 GBPINR 290518 JPYINR 290518
LTP 68.3150 79.9750 91.30 62.43
Disclaimer : This report/ material has been prepared by IDBI Bank Limited (“IDBI Bank”) and is only meant for the recipient for use as intended and not for circulation. This
Disclaimer : This report/ material has been prepared by IDBI Bank Limited (“IDBI Bank”) and is only meant for the recipient for use as intended and not for circulation. This document and its contents are strictly confidential and may not be retransmitted, distributed, published, reproduced (in whole or in part) by any medium or in any form, or disclosed or made available by recipients to any other person. The information contained herein is collected from public domain or sources believed to be reliable and IDBI Bank has not independently verified it. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information given is at the time believed to be fair and correct and opinions based thereupon are reasonable, due to the very nature of the research, it cannot be guaranteed, warranted or represented that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon. This report/material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or as an invitation or inducement to make, or a solicitation of, any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities investment products or other financial product or service, or an official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this report/material should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. It is clarified that the information contained herein is preliminary, limited in nature and subject to verification, completion and amendment. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given or made by any person in relation to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information or any opinions contained herein and no reliance whatsoever should be placed on such information or opinions. This report/material, should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and assessment. Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and neither IDBI Bank nor any other person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Neither IDBI Bank, nor its advisors nor any of their respective affiliates, agents, directors, partners and employees shall have any responsibility or liability whatsoever (for negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report/material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this report/material. This report/material contains certain tables and other statistical information and analyses (the “Statistical Information”). Numerous assumptions were used in preparing the Statistical Information, which may or may not be reflected herein. As such, no assurance can be given as to the Statistical Information’s accuracy, appropriateness or completeness in any particular context; nor as to whether the Statistical Information and/or the assumptions upon which they are based reflect present market conditions or future market performance. The Statistical Information should not be construed as either projections or predictions or as legal, tax, financial or accounting advice. This report/material may contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in this report/material that is not a statement of historical fact is a forward-looking statement that is based on various assumptions and involves unknown risks and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. The recipient may have to make its own independent investigation and appraisal of the the market condition and environment and no reliance may be placed upon the information herein for such purposes. Recipients should consult with their own legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting advisers to the extent that they deem it necessary, and make their own investment, hedging and trading decisions based upon their own investigation and judgment and advice from such advisers as they deem necessary and not upon any view expressed in this material. Nothing in this document constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. By reviewing this material you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the foregoing.
