Apr 3, 2001 - TEC as Function of Azimuth and Elevation around Millstone .... MHR3. EGL2. TEC Disturbances on 15 July 2000 ... FPS-85 Florida. -50. 50. 150.
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Operational Impacts of Space Weather R. Lambour, A. J. Coster, R. Clouser, L. E. Thornton, J. Sharma, and A. Cott MIT Lincoln Laboratory
2001 Space Control Conference
3 April 2001 2001 Space Control Conf. -1 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Outline
• Introduction – Space Weather • Effects on Space-Based Systems • Effects on Ground-Based systems • Conclusions
2001 Space Control Conf. -2 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Space Weather • Definition: – “Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can affect performance and reliability of space-based and ground-based technological systems.”*
* 2001 Space Control Conf. -3 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Solar Flare
Stop
Coronal Mass Ejection
Stop
Effects of Space Weather on Earth SOHO – Solar Flare
SOHO – Coronal Mass Ejection
Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Caused very large magnetic storm and ionospheric effects
2001 Space Control Conf. -4 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Solar Flare
Stop
Coronal Mass Ejection
Stop
Effects of Space Weather on Earth SOHO – Solar Flare
SOHO – Coronal Mass Ejection
Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Caused very large magnetic storm and ionospheric effects
2001 Space Control Conf. -4 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Solar Flare
Stop
Coronal Mass Ejection
Stop
Effects of Space Weather on Earth SOHO – Solar Flare
SOHO – Coronal Mass Ejection
Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Caused very large magnetic storm and ionospheric effects
Near peak of 11 Year solar cycle Activity on Sun, magnetosphere and ionosphere will be a maximum for the next 2-3 years
2001 Space Control Conf. -4 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Outline
• Introduction – Space Weather • Effects on Space-Based Systems – Space-Based Visible sensor South Atlantic Anomaly Transient effects Long-term (?) effects
• Effects on Ground-Based systems • Conclusions
2001 Space Control Conf. -5 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Play Animation
Stop
SBV Sensor • 15 cm high straylight rejection telescope
• 4 - 420x420 Lincoln Laboratory CCD
• 1.4 x 1.4 deg field of view •
2001 Space Control Conf. -6 RLL 4/3/2001
per CCD Staring sensor
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Play Animation
Stop
SBV Sensor • 15 cm high straylight rejection telescope
• 4 - 420x420 Lincoln Laboratory CCD
• 1.4 x 1.4 deg field of view •
per CCD Staring sensor
• Target and star detection • Clutter rejection • Data compression
2001 Space Control Conf. -6 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Space Environment Effects on SBV
2001 Space Control Conf. -7 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)
Flux contours of E > 50 MeV Protons at 500 km
SAA
Energetic particle enhancement at low altitudes due to offset of magnetic field
2001 Space Control Conf. -8 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Play Animation
Stop
SAA Effects on SBV
Protons with energy > 10 MeV affect SBV focal plane and inhibit ability to observe valid target streaks 2001 Space Control Conf. -9 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event
Solar Proton Arrival
NOAA Geosynchronous Space Environment Summary 2001 Space Control Conf. -10 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event •
Solar flare occurred at end of pinch point CONOPS testing
•
One DCE produced no data (day 197)
•
Decrease in valid streaks over polar regions seen
•
Decrease not attributable to anomalies
Valid Streaks per Frameset
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 190
|Latitude| < 60 |Latitude| > 60 Flare Storm 192
194
196
198
200
Day of Year 2000
2001 Space Control Conf. -11 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event
False Streaks per Frameset
2.0
1.5
|Latitude| > 60 |Latitude| < 60 Flare Storm
• False streaks per
frameset increased significantly after solar flare
1.0
0.5
0.0 190
192
194
196
198
200
Day of Year 2000
2001 Space Control Conf. -12 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Transient Effects: 14 July 2000 Solar Proton Event
False Streaks per Frameset
2.0
|Latitude| > 60 |Latitude| < 60 Flare Storm
1.5
• False streaks per
frameset increased significantly after solar flare
1.0
0.5
0.0 190
192
194
196
198
200
Day of Year 2000
Influx of solar protons over poles degraded SBV performance 2001 Space Control Conf. -12 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects
SAA
2001 Space Control Conf. -13 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects
SAA
2001 Space Control Conf. -13 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects
SAA
• Area with reduced detections south of SAA noticed in 1998-1999 • Effect investigated by looking geographic distribution of valid and false streaks
2001 Space Control Conf. -13 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects SAA
Region of interest
2001 Space Control Conf. -14 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Long Term (?) Space Environment Effects SAA
Region of interest Area of degraded performance persists into 2000
2001 Space Control Conf. -14 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Energetic Particle Source Regions > 6900 keV proton data from NOAA POES MEPED sensor **SEM-2 system
SAA Trapped Protons 0°°-detector
90°°-detector
• NOAA baseline plots show increase in trapped outer-zone protons south of SAA in recent years
• Consistent with location of degraded SBV performance 2001 Space Control Conf. -15 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Outline
• Introduction – Space Weather • Effects on Space-Based systems • Effects on Ground-Based systems – Range Delay – Scintillation – July 14-15th storm
• Conclusions
2001 Space Control Conf. -16 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
2
m2
2001 Space Control Conf. -17 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Illustration of Atmospheric Effects Range Delay
n ionosphere
AN e ≈1− f 2
40.3 ∆Rion (meters) = f2
2001 Space Control Conf. -18 RLL 4/3/2001
∫
R
0
N e dr
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Illustration of Atmospheric Effects Range Delay
n ionosphere
AN e ≈1− f 2
40.3 ∆Rion (meters) = f2
∫
R
0
Range Delay
S-Band
L-Band
UHF
VHF
Elev
Ionosphere
6m
32 m
280 m
2 km
< 20 °
2001 Space Control Conf. -18 RLL 4/3/2001
N e dr
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Play Animation
Stop
GRIMS: GPS Real-Time Ionospheric Monitoring System • MIT Lincoln Laboratory built the first real-time ionospheric monitoring system based on GPS (1991).
– Purpose: Part of a radar calibration system. Operational systems online at FPS-85, ALTAIR, and Millstone satellite tracking radars. TEC as Function of Azimuth and Elevation around Millstone Hill Radar, MA
2001 Space Control Conf. -19 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Scintillation
Scintillation can cause additional errors.
For GPS, the primary issue is loss of lock. For radars, the primary issue is degradation of coherent integration capabilities.
2001 Space Control Conf. -20 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
ALTAIR VHF Observations on CAL Sphere 2826: Normal Conditions versus Severe Scintillation
0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0
-5
0 5 Frequency (Hz)
-5 0
10
6 4 8 0 0
10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 6 4 9 0 0 64900
RCS (dBsm)
Normal Spectrum
-10
Spectrum in Severe Scintillation
-10 2001 Space Control Conf. -21 RLL 4/3/2001
RCS (dBsm)
Power spectral density (Log)
1 0
RCS (dBsm)
10 dB
Power spectral density (log)
ALTAIR VHF Tracks Calibration Sphere 2826 .5 m diameter, 850 km circular orbit
-5
0 5 Frequency (Hz)
10
Negligible scintillation
6 5 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 0 6 5 2 0 0 6 5 3 0 0 65100 65200 65300 65400 G M T S E C O N D S Time of day (sec GMT)
6 5 4 0 0 65500
Intense scintillation Moderate scintillation 10 0 -10 -20 Cable -30 wrap -40 -50 44000 44100 44200 44300 44400 44500 44600 Time of day (sec GMT)
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Solar Flare
Stop
Coronal Mass Ejection
Stop
Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Strikes Earth
2001 Space Control Conf. -22 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Solar Flare
Stop
Coronal Mass Ejection
Stop
Solar Flare of 14 July 2000 Biggest Solar Storm in Nine Years Strikes Earth
Est. Planetary Kp (3 Hr.)
Begin: 2000 Jul 14 0000 UT
NOAA/SEC Boulder, CO USA 2001 Space Control Conf. -22 RLL 4/3/2001
es
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
TEC Disturbances on 15 July 2000 180 160
POR4 WES2 NRC1 MHR3 EGL2
140 TEC Units
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
UTC Time (Hours) starting at day 197 2001 Space Control Conf. -23 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
TEC Disturbances on 15 July 2000 180 160
POR4 WES2 NRC1 MHR3 EGL2
140 TEC Units
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
UTC Time (Hours) starting at day 197 2001 Space Control Conf. -23 RLL 4/3/2001
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
GPS Loss of Lock at Ottawa and Millstone Hill No. of Satellites
GPS Loss of Lock at Ottawa
V West (m/s)
Local Westward Ion Velocity at Millstone Hill
Zenith TEC Over Millstone Hill 4 5
TEC units TEC units
4 0
Loss of Lock on GPS L2 signal
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0
15.5
1 5 . 5
2001 Space Control Conf. -24 RLL 4/3/2001
1 5 . 7 5
15.75
1 6 Day of16 Month D
a y
o
f
M
o
1 6 . 2 5
n
t h
16.25
1 6 . 5
16.5
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Range Residuals (m)
Range Residuals on Calibration Sphere 7646 FPS-85 Florida 350 250
Typical Residuals
150 50 -50
Range Residuals (m)
201.87
201.872
201.874
201.876
201.878
201.88
400 300
July 15th storm effects
200 100 0 197.968
197.97
197.972
197.974
197.976
Day of Year (2000) 2001 Space Control Conf. -25 RLL 4/3/2001