PCF Resources Thermometer

Au

Cu

Ni

Fe

GOLD

COPPER

NICKEL

IRON ORE

PCF Resources Thermometer April 2018

Contents SECTION

PAGE

Executive Summary

3

PCF Group 150

4

Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts

6

Gold Thermometer

7

Copper Thermometer

13

Nickel Thermometer

18

Iron Ore Thermometer

23

PCF Capital Group

MinesOnline.com

PCF Corporate Advisory

Liam Twigger Managing Director

Graeme Testar Director

• Public market takeovers • Corporate mergers and acquisitions • General corporate advice • Asset acquisitions and divestment • Equity capital raising • Corporate restructuring • Strategic and technical reviews • Indicative valuations

Mike Sperinck Technical Director

Garth Ziegler Manager

• Structured debt and hybrid funding • Mezzanine, convertible and commodity loans • Access to non bank funding network • Development project finance • Debt sizing • Cash and short term investment solutions

Liam Twigger Managing Director

• Web-based platform connecting buyers and sellers of mining projects • ~ 4,000 users from over 100 countries • Unique E-Newsletter promoting new projects • Unparalleled global distribution capacity • 40% + successful sales ratio

• Financial models

PCF Resources Thermometer

2

Executive Summary We are pleased to present the April 2018 edition of the PCF Resources Thermometer including the PCF Group 150 (PCF150), a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. At the close of 31 March 2018, the value of the PCF150 was A$389 billion, down ~A$21 billion or ~5.0% from February. Ongoing uncertainty in relation US trade sanctions and the potential for tit-for-tat moves by China and Europe has cast a pall over equity market valuations and confidence in the continued recovery in global growth. Analysts believe global GDP could drop from a forecast ~3.0% by between 0.5% and 1.0% should a full blown trade war erupt. The 5.0% drop in the PCF 150 in February contrasts with the 17% gain made in the PCF 150 over the entire 2017 calendar year. PCF attended the Hong Kong Mines and Money Conference last week and whilst sentiment for mining equities is remains positive there is a growing opinion that regulators are suffocating conventional capital markets and providing an incredible runway for crypto currencies to provide an alternative path and conduit for capital. Bitcoin appears to have had its day with newer and better coins being designed with improved technology, broader applications including the potential to source capital for mining companies.

SNAPSHOT PCF Group 150

Price Performance

• •

Market value of the PCF Group 150 at 31 March 2018 was A$389 billion. This is a decrease of ~5% from last month’s value of A$410 billion.

•

On average, gold producers were up about 3% for the month, whilst explorers and developers were down ~2%. Copper companies were up about 2% for the month, while Nickel companies were down about 4% this month. Iron ore companies were down about 8% for the month.

• • •

Liquidity & Short Positions

• • • •

Notable Transactions

Gold stock liquidity was at ~11% for month, up slightly from last month. Gold stock short positions were flat month on month, with ~1% of stock shorted. Copper stock trading increased, with about 5% of copper stocks changing hands, whilst copper stocks were shorted ~1% at month end. Nickel stock liquidity for the month was about ~7%, up ~300 basis points. The shorting of nickel stocks decreased to ~4%. Iron ore stocks were less liquid, with liquidity down from ~8% to ~5%. Short positions on iron ore stocks were flat for the month at ~1%. Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) announced it has agreed to acquire the South Kalgoorlie Operations from Westgold Resources Limited (ASX:WGX) for total consideration of A$80M. Using a Reserve multiple based on the A$80M consideration and the acquired Reserve of 252koz of gold, South Kalgoorlie Operations transacted at US$248/oz.


3

PCF GROUP 150 Top 150 ASX Listed Resource Companies - 31 March 2018 By Market Capitalisation. Rank

Mkt Cap (A$M)

%

Rank

Mkt Cap (A$M) 31-Mar-18

%

Mar

Feb

Company

31-Mar-18

28-Feb-18

Change

Mar

Feb

Company

1

1

BHP Billiton Group (ASX:BHP)

$145,077.1

$153,434.5

(5.4%)

51

42

Energy Resources of Australia Ltd (ASX:ERA)

$253.7

28-Feb-18 $344.3

Change

2

2

Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO)

$118,266.4

$126,276.6

(6.3%)

52

56

Magnis Resources Limited (ASX:MNS)

$240.3

$225.7

6.5%

3

3

South32 Limited (ASX:S32)

$16,575.0

$17,136.6

(3.3%)

53

45

Highfield Resources Limited (ASX:HFR)

$238.7

$301.2

(20.8%)

4

4

Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX:NCM)

$14,986.9

$16,308.3

(8.1%)

54

68

Gascoyne Resources Limited (ASX:GCY)

$236.9

$193.4

22.5%

5

5

Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX:FMG)

$13,477.4

$15,687.4

(14.1%)

55

53

Pantoro Limited (ASX:PNR)

$231.6

$239.4

(3.3%)

6

7

Alumina Limited (ASX:AWC)

$6,794.8

$6,420.5

5.8%

56

52

Bathurst Resources Limited (ASX:BRL)

$227.0

$257.2

(11.8%)

7

6

Yancoal Australia Limited (ASX:YAL)

$6,594.4

$6,814.2

(3.2%)

57

66

Panoramic Resources Limited (ASX:PAN)

$226.1

$197.9

14.3%

8

8

Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN)

$5,128.6

$4,840.9

5.9%

58

60

West African Resources Limited (ASX:WAF)

$220.9

$215.0

2.7%

9

10

Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC)

$4,414.5

$4,335.2

1.8%

59

57

Mineral Deposits Limited (ASX:MDL)

$220.6

$224.6

(1.8%)

10

9

Iluka Resources Limited (ASX:ILU)

$4,413.4

$4,342.3

1.6%

60

47

Tungsten Mining NL (ASX:TGN)

$220.3

$289.1

(23.8%)

11

11

Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST)

$3,787.9

$3,794.0

(0.2%)

61

58

Tawana Resources NL (ASX:TAW)

$219.7

$222.2

(1.1%)

12

12

Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN)

$3,180.3

$3,545.2

(10.3%)

62

59

Berkeley Energia Limited (ASX:BKY)

$215.1

$217.6

(1.2%)

13

13

Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO)

$2,699.4

$2,975.2

(9.3%)

63

64

Cardinal Resources Limited (ASX:CDV)

$204.3

$201.6

1.3%

14

14

OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL)

$2,685.0

$2,879.1

(6.7%)

64

63

Hastings Technology Metals Ltd (ASX:HAS)

$199.1

$204.7

(2.7%)

15

15

Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL)

$2,284.6

$2,158.3

5.9%

65

75

Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR)

$199.1

$176.4

12.9%

16

16

St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM)

$2,061.0

$2,113.3

(2.5%)

66

54

Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR)

$196.7

$231.5

(15.0%)

17

17

New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX:NHC)

$1,745.4

$1,861.8

(6.3%)

67

62

CI Resources Limited (ASX:CII)

$196.5

$207.5

(5.3%)

18

22

Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC)

$1,620.3

$1,257.4

28.9%

68

65

Rand Mining Limited (ASX:RND)

$188.5

$199.9

(5.7%)

19

21

Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR)

$1,451.7

$1,316.8

10.2%

69

61

Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO)

$185.6

$213.4

(13.0%)

20

19

Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX:PLS)

$1,425.4

$1,514.0

(5.9%)

70

73

Danakali Limited (ASX:DNK)

$180.3

$183.3

(1.7%)

21

18

Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE)

$1,397.4

$1,705.0

(18.0%)

71

76

Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR)

$180.0

$176.3

2.1%

22

20

Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX:GXY)

$1,205.8

$1,425.8

(15.4%)

72

71

Millennium Minerals Limited (ASX:MOY)

$178.1

$185.2

(3.8%)

23

23

Sandfire Resources NL (ASX:SFR)

$1,157.9

$1,211.7

(4.4%)

73

67

Neometals Limited (ASX:NMT)

$173.9

$195.7

(11.1%)

24

24

OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH)

$997.1

$1,069.5

(6.8%)

74

72

Heron Resources Limited (ASX:HRR)

$169.2

$183.7

(7.9%)

25

25

Syrah Resources Limited (ASX:SYR)

$941.6

$1,015.8

(7.3%)

75

78

Talga Resources Limited (ASX:TLG)

$168.4

$167.1

0.8%

26

27

Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG)

$923.1

$826.7

11.7%

76

77

Sheffield Resources Limited (ASX:SFX)

$163.4

$168.9

(3.3%)

27

26

Western Areas Limited (ASX:WSA)

$853.6

$883.5

(3.4%)

77

83

Aeon Metals Limited (ASX:AML)

$161.1

$143.6

12.2%

28

30

Altura Mining Limited (ASX:AJM)

$764.3

$673.3

13.5%

78

82

Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK)

$149.3

$146.8

1.7%

29

29

Kidman Resources Limited (ASX:KDR)

$723.4

$676.4

6.9%

79

137

King River Copper Limited (ASX:KRC)

$146.3

$71.4

104.9%

30

28

Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR)

$715.2

$701.7

1.9%

80

90

Prairie Mining Limited (ASX:PDZ)

$145.7

$126.5

15.2%

31

32

Global Geoscience Limited (ASX:GSC)

$636.1

$600.4

6.0%

81

74

Red River Resources Limited (ASX:RVR)

$144.5

$178.8

(19.2%)

32

34

Dacian Gold Limited (ASX:DCN)

$605.2

$541.4

11.8%

82

95

Mayur Resources Limited (ASX:MRL)

$143.4

$122.5

17.1%

33

31

New Century Resources Limited (ASX:NCZ)

$567.6

$614.3

(7.6%)

83

94

Oklo Resources Limited (ASX:OKU)

$138.1

$122.6

12.7%

34

33

Westgold Resources Limited (ASX:WGX)

$544.6

$580.9

(6.3%)

84

70

Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND)

$134.1

$186.4

(28.0%)

35

36

Champion Iron Limited (ASX:CIA)

$487.2

$535.8

(9.1%)

85

92

TNG Limited (ASX:TNG)

$132.7

$124.7

6.5%

36

40

Perseus Mining Limited (ASX:PRU)

$480.8

$413.3

16.3%

86

89

Agrimin Limited (ASX:AMN)

$131.1

$129.6

1.2%

37

37

AVZ Minerals Limited (ASX:AVZ)

$475.7

$474.1

0.3%

87

81

Echo Resources Limited (ASX:EAR)

$127.1

$151.5

(16.1%)

38

35

Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX)

$440.6

$538.1

(18.1%)

88

86

European Lithium Limited (ASX:EUR)

$122.8

$136.2

(9.8%)

39

38

Mount Gibson Iron Limited (ASX:MGX)

$416.7

$455.1

(8.4%)

89

98

Doray Minerals Limited (ASX:DRM)

$119.2

$115.1

3.6%

40

39

Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR)

$408.7

$425.8

(4.0%)

90

85

Lepidico Limited (ASX:LPD)

$118.1

$141.1

(16.3%)

41

69

Avanco Resources Limited (ASX:AVB)

$380.8

$191.6

98.7%

91

88

Peel Mining Limited (ASX:PEX)

$117.7

$132.4

(11.1%)

42

41

Metro Mining Limited (ASX:MMI)

$354.2

$380.0

(6.8%)

92

160

Cobalt Blue Holdings Limited (ASX:COB)

$115.7

$58.9

96.3%

43

43

Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX:AMI)

$325.2

$325.2

0.0%

93

105

Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML)

$115.3

$95.6

20.7%

44

44

Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE)

$304.4

$304.4

0.0%

94

93

Ardea Resources Limited (ASX:ARL)

$115.0

$123.4

(6.8%)

45

46

Argosy Minerals Limited (ASX:AGY)

$293.9

$293.9

0.0%

95

99

Paringa Resources Limited (ASX:PNL)

$114.1

$114.1

0.0%

46

51

Paladin Energy Limited (ASX:PDN)

$291.2

$265.5

9.7%

96

80

Xanadu Mines Limited (ASX:XAM)

$111.9

$156.0

(28.3%)

47

55

Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX:RMS)

$271.4

$226.6

19.8%

97

107

Orinoco Gold Limited (ASX:OGX)

$110.4

$92.3

19.6%

48

48

Australian Mines Limited (ASX:AUZ)

$267.8

$281.2

(4.8%)

98

157

Blackham Resources Limited (ASX:BLK)

$110.1

$59.5

85.1%

49

49

Flinders Mines Limited (ASX:FMS)

$262.6

$276.1

(4.9%)

99

91

Artemis Resources Limited (ASX:ARV)

$109.7

$125.3

(12.5%)

50

50

Terramin Australia Limited (ASX:TZN)

$261.7

$271.1

(3.4%)

100

87

ASF Group Limited (ASX:AFA)

$108.4

$135.5

(20.0%)

(26.3%)

Source: S+P Market Intelligence * Recapitalisation


4

Rank Mar

Mkt Cap (A$M)

Feb

Company

31-Mar-18

%

28-Feb-18

Rank

Change

Mkt Cap (A$M)

Mar

Feb

Company

31-Mar-18

%

28-Feb-18

Change

101

79

Birimian Limited (ASX:BGS)

$103.8

$157.9

(34.3%)

126

108

Piedmont Lithium Limited (ASX:PLL)

$77.6

$91.4

102

96

Wollongong Coal Limited (ASX:WLC)

$103.0

$121.8

(15.4%)

127

200

Nagambie Resources Limited (ASX:NAG)

$76.7

$44.4

72.7%

103

114

NOVONIX Limited (ASX:NVX)

$101.0

$86.8

16.3%

128

117

Emerald Resources NL (ASX:EMR)

$76.0

$84.5

(10.0%)

104

113

Prospect Resources Limited (ASX:PSC)

$99.8

$87.1

14.6%

129

132

Zeta Resources Limited (ASX:ZER)

$75.4

$75.4

0.0%

105

127

Salt Lake Potash Limited (ASX:SO4)

$99.8

$78.8

26.7%

130

131

Draig Resources Limited (ASX:DRG)

$74.9

$76.1

(1.6%)

106

101

Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD)

$98.2

$111.8

(12.1%)

131

146

GME Resources Limited (ASX:GME)

$74.2

$64.9

14.3%

107

84

Beadell Resources Limited (ASX:BDR)

$96.2

$141.8

(32.2%)

132

119

Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN)

$73.8

$83.8

(12.0%)

108

115

Nzuri Copper Limited (ASX:NZC)

$95.9

$86.5

10.9%

133

97

Alderan Resources Limited (ASX:AL8)

$73.4

$118.8

(38.2%)

109

103

MOD Resources Limited (ASX:MOD)

$94.8

$97.7

(3.0%)

134

111

Lithium Power International Ltd (ASX:LPI)

$72.6

$88.4

(17.9%)

110

109

CuDeco Limited (ASX:CDU)

$92.0

$90.1

2.2%

135

141

Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU)

$72.6

$66.5

9.1%

111

116

Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU)

$91.3

$85.2

7.1%

136

118

Collerina Cobalt Limited (ASX:CLL)

$71.2

$83.9

(15.2%)

112

102

Greenland Minerals & Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG)

$88.4

$106.1

(16.7%)

137

134

Mineral Commodities Limited (ASX:MRC)

$68.5

$74.7

(8.3%)

113

110

Lucapa Diamond Company Ltd (ASX:LOM)

$88.0

$89.9

(2.1%)

138

154

Kogi Iron Limited (ASX:KFE)

$68.4

$60.0

14.0%

114

112

Red 5 Limited (ASX:RED)

$86.8

$88.1

(1.4%)

139

140

Altech Chemicals Limited (ASX:ATC)

$68.2

$68.2

0.0%

115

100

Jervois Mining Limited (ASX:JRV)

$85.6

$113.0

(24.3%)

140

128

BBX Minerals Limited (ASX:BBX)

$67.5

$77.2

(12.5%)

116

106

Sayona Mining Limited (ASX:SYA)

$85.6

$92.9

(7.9%)

141

153

Lithium Australia NL (ASX:LIT)

$67.3

$60.3

11.5%

117

126

Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG)

$84.6

$78.9

7.2%

142

159

Australian Vanadium Limited (ASX:AVL)

$67.2

$59.4

13.2%

118

104

MC Mining Limited (ASX:MCM)

$84.5

$95.8

(11.8%)

143

136

Kalium Lakes Limited (ASX:KLL)

$67.1

$73.0

(8.1%)

119

124

Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX:CYL)

$83.9

$80.2

4.6%

144

158

Geopacific Resources Limited (ASX:GPR)

$66.7

$59.5

12.1%

120

151

Celsius Resources Limited (ASX:CLA)

$82.9

$62.2

33.4%

145

194

Bass Metals Limited (ASX:BSM)

$66.6

$46.6

42.9%

121

122

Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG)

$82.4

$80.6

2.2%

146

188

Hexagon Resources Limited (ASK:HXG)

$66.6

$48.7

36.7%

122

120

TerraCom Limited (ASX:TER)

$81.1

$82.8

(2.1%)

147

144

Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL)

$65.3

$65.3

0.0%

123

129

Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR)

$80.4

$77.0

4.3%

148

121

Newfield Resources Limited (ASX:NWF)

$64.9

$81.2

(20.0%)

124

130

KGL Resources Limited (ASX:KGL)

$80.2

$76.9

4.3%

149

143

First Graphene Limited (ASX:FGR)

$64.8

$65.4

(0.9%)

125

125

Breaker Resources NL (ASX:BRB)

$78.0

$79.5

(1.8%)

150

148

Image Resources NL (ASX:IMA)

$64.2

$64.2

0.0%

New Entrants

New Exits

• • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • •

92 Cobalt Blue Holdings Limited (ASX:COB) 98 Blackham Resources Limited (ASX:BLK) 120 Celsius Resources Limited (ASX:CLA) 127 Nagambie Resources Limited (ASX:NAG) 138 Kogi Iron Limited (ASX:KFE) 141 Lithium Australia NL (ASX:LIT) 142 Australian Vanadium Limited (ASX:AVL) 144 Geopacific Resources Limited (ASX:GPR) 145 Bass Metals Limited (ASX:BSM) 146 Hexagon Resources Limited (ASK:HXG)

(15.2%)

Battery Minerals Limited (ASX:BAT) Galena Mining Limited (ASX:G1A) Sundance Resources Limited (ASX:SDL) BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN) European Cobalt Limited (ASX:EUC) Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) Triton Minerals Limited (ASX:TON) Anson Resources Limited (ASX:ASN) Queensland Bauxite Limited (ASX:QBL)

Winners and Losers - Market Capitalisation Performance


5

Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts Gold (US$/oz)

Silver (US$/oz)

$1,600

$24

$1,500

$22

$1,400

$1,323

$1,305

$1,322

$1,329

$1,300

$18.17

2018

2019

2020

$16.28

$14

$1,100 Spot

2018

2019

2020

Copper (US$/lb)

$12 Spot

Nickel (US$/lb)

$5.00

$10.00

$3.03

$3.15

$3.21

$3.22

$3.00

$8.00

$6.01

$5.73

$5.97

$6.34

Spot

2018

2019

2020

$1.09

$1.10

$1.08

$1.07

Spot

2018

2019

2020

$6.00 $4.00

$2.00

$2.00

$1.00

Spot

2018

2019

2020

Zinc (US$/lb) $2.00

$18

$1.49

$0.00

Lead (US$/lb) $1.48

$1.50

$2.00 $1.42

$1.30

$1.50

$1.00

$1.00

$0.50

$0.50

$0.00 Spot

2018

2019

2020

Iron Ore Fines 62% (US$/MT)

$0.00

Uranium (US$/lb)

$90.00

$70 $60

$70.00

$18.84

$17.74

$16

$1,200

$4.00

$20

$63.10

$64.21

$62.52

$61.69

$50 $40

$30

$21.10

$29.28

$34.71

$42.17

$20

$50.00

$10 $0

$30.00

Spot

AUD:USD

2018

2019

2020

$77.50

$80.17

2019

2020

WTI - NYMEX (US$/bbl)

$1.00

$120 $0.77

$0.75

$0.76

$100

$0.75

$0.75

$80

$64.94

$72.00

$60

$40 $0.50

Spot

2018

2019

2020

$20 Spot

2018

Source: Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low as at 31 March 2018.


6

GOLD Thermometer


7

Gold Producers

- Relative Performance 1 Month Share Price Performance - Average 3% 110%

90%

85%

70% 50%

30%

21%

10% -10%

4% 6%

2% 0% 2%

0% -4%

-5%

20%

16%

6%

2% -6% -7%

-12%

-4%

-5%

-8%

0%

-1%

-3%

13%

12% 10%

-3%

-3% -6% -4%

-18%

-30% -32% -50%

3 Month Share Price Performance - Average 5% 60%

43%

38%

40%

28% 20%

37%

32%

34% 24%

30%

21%

14% 3%

2%

6%

5%

3%

9% 5%

4% 4%

0% -5%

-11%

-20%

-4%

-9%

-2%

-17%

-9% -18%

-9% -14%

-15%

-30%

-40%

-60%

-57%


88%

80%

73%

80%

60%

44%

50% 37%

35%

40% 20%

55%

54%

23% 6%

5%

1%

0% -20%

-2% -22%

-40% -60% -80% -100%

68%

64%

-12%-12%

-13%

-4%

-9%

-27%

-45%

-51% -73% -84%

-32% -36% -43% -53%

-64%

N.B. Where no % is shown, there is no reportable performance for that period i.e. due to delisting or not yet being listed.


8

Gold Developers & Explorers - Relative Performance

1 Month Share Price Performance - Average -2% 50%

45%

40% 30%

22% 12%

20%

0%

13%

7%

10%

0%

1%

0% -4%

-10%

2%

-17%

3%

-7% -13%

-14%

-16%

-16%

8%

-2% -4%

-7% -6%

-10% -10%

-20%

0%

5%

-14%

-30%

-29%

-40%

3 Month Share Price Performance - Average 5% 250% 192%

200% 150% 100% 50%

50% 0%

5%

2% -5%

-18%

-50%

38%

28%

25% 7%

0%

5%

1%

-9%

-10%

-29%

16%

-5%

-14% -4%

-14%

-5%

10%

-25%

-30%

-17%

-7%

-56% -100%

12 Month Share Price Performance - Average -7% 120% 92%

100%

73%

80% 60%

48%

40% 20%

48%

14%

6%

14%

6%

3%

43%

41%

37%

0% -20% -40% -60% -80%

-2% -15% -31%

-17% -32%

-48%

-46%

-38% -36%

-46%

-67%

-35% -61%

-26%

-35%

-70%



9


$10

Focus

$0

$13

Eastern Goldfields

Orinoco

$16

Primary

$3

$17

OreCorp

Carbine

$19

Azumah

$6

$20

Amani

Horizon

$24

Anova

250

$8

$27

Cardinal

$100

Beadell

Alkane

Kingsgate

$113

Perseus

$15

$78

$122

WPG

$132

$240

Red 5

Westgold

$243

Austral

$140

$270

Ramelius

Newcrest

$278

Blackham

$171

$285

Troy

Alacer

$313

Medusa

$185

$327

Silver Lake

Resolute

$328

Oceana

$428

$502

Doray

St Barbara

$508

Regis

$147

Oceana

$74 $68

$63 $60

$60 $51

$46 $42

$41 $35

Newcrest Ramelius

Alacer Resolute

Troy Austral

Silver Lake Perseus Red 5 Excelsior

WPG

Blackham

Alkane

Beadell

Kingsgate

$1

$2

$4

$11

$14

$25

$81

Medusa

Westgold

$94

Doray

$127

$158

Saracen

Millennium

$160

Producers - EV / Reserve (A$/oz AuEq) Northern Star

$192

$211

$232

$272

$597

700

Crusader

$32

N.B. February figure has been rebased to remove effect of outliers.

Capricorn

$43

ABM

0

$660

200

Saracen

400

$676

600

Millennium

St Barbara

Aurelia

0

$36

$44

West African

$70

$798

$851

Regis

100

Tanami

$45

Bassari

0

$48

50

Kin

Echo

100

Evolution

800

$94

Excelsior

$901

Evolution

Pantoro

200

Gascoyne

$102

150

Aurelia

1,000

Egan Street

200

$135

1,200

$1,002

$1,283

300

Explorers & Developers - EV / Resources (A$/oz AuEq) Northern Star

Pantoro

1,400

$198

600

Gold Road

Dacian

Gold Peer Company Valuations

Producers - EV / Resource (A$/oz AuEq) March Resource Metric

March Average $104/oz

February Average $103/oz

500

400

March Reserve Metric



March Resource Metric



10

Gold Sector Liquidity / Shorts Gold Sector Liquidity 45.0%

% Change Decrease % Change Increase 8.5% February Average

40.0%

10.7% March Average

35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%

Orinoco Resolute Tanga Beadell Kidman Saracen Regis Perseus Northern Star Evolution Primary Gold St Barbara Newcrest Silver Lake Ramelius Alacer Carbine Calidus WPG Dacian Gascoyne Doray Echo Westgold ABM Medusa Millenium Kin Mining Capricorn Pantoro Kingsrose Havilah Gold Road Troy Alkane Kingsgate Excelsior Aurelia Red 5 Azumah Tanami Gold Bassari West African Burey Gold Cardinal PanTerra Anova Crusader OceanaGold S2 Resources Orecorp Focus Horizon Gold Austral

0.0%

Note: Bar chart illustrates monthly share turnover as a percentage of total shares on issue, from largest to smallest. An increase in share turnover (month-on-month) is represented by a light blue bar on top of the prior month’s share turnover (being the dark blue bar). A decrease in share liquidity (month-on-month) is represented by the red bar (representing the prior month’s share turnover) falling to the dark blue bar component (being the current month’s turnover).

Gold Sector Short Positions 6.0%

% Change Decrease % Change Increase

5.0%

1.4% February Average

1.2% March Average 4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

West African

Echo

Gascoyne

Kin Mining

Alkane

Medusa

Blackham

OceanaGold

Kingsgate

Cardinal

Ramelius

Newcrest

Alacer

S2 Resources

Troy

Regis

Silver Lake

Perseus

Doray

Evolution

Northern Star

St Barbara

Kidman

Beadell

Saracen

Westgold

Dacian

Gold Road

Resolute

0.0%

Note: Bar chart illustrates reported short positions as a percentage of total shares on issue, from largest to smallest result. An increase in short positions (month-on-month) is represented by a light blue bar on top of the prior month’s short positions (being the dark blue bar). A decrease in short positions (month-on-month) is represented by the red bar (representing the prior month’s short positions) falling to the dark blue bar component (being the current month’s short positions). Compares data from 28/02/2018 to 31/03/2018.


11

Gold Transaction Metrics

- Resource and Reserve Multiples Transaction multiples based on gold price of US$1,330/oz - 31 March 2018

Exploration (US$/oz AuEq)

$14

Development (US$/oz AuEq)

$120

$14

$14

$105

$14 $14

$99

$94

$100 $80

$13 $60

$13

$13

$13

$13

$40

$52

$39

$39

1 yr average

3 yr average

$13 $20

$13 $12

1 yr average

3 yr average

Operation (US$/oz AuEq)

5 yr average

Care & Maintenance (US$/oz AuEq)

$300

$45

$260 $239

$236

$250

$0

5 yr average

$42

$40 $35

$200

$30

$25

$150 $100

$80

$97

$15 $10

$50

$0

$20

$20

$105

$12 $9

$9

$5

1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

Resource

$0

1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

Reserve

1. Transaction metrics are derived from transactions normailised to account for movements in commodity prices - refer notes on page 3. 2. Completed transactions only *Denotes metric is derived from four transaction results or less


12

COPPER Thermometer


13

Copper Stocks Relative Performance 1 Month Share Price Performance - Average 2% 120%

99%

100% 80% 60%

44% 40% 20%

11%

13%

0% -3% -20%

-4%

-5%

-7%

0%

6%

0% -3%

-7%

-5%

-7%

-12% -13% -13% -13%

-15% -40%

-29%

3 Month Share Price Performance - Average 4% 100% 80%

80%

72%

60%

48%

47%

40% 20%

8%

7%

6%

3%

0% -7%

-20%

-5% -13%

-2%

-8%

-2%

-29%

-27%

-40%

-13%

-20%

-21%

-30%

-30%

12 Month Share Price Performance - Average 23% 250% 210% 200%

157% 150% 111%

100% 50%

29%

14%

3%

15%

7% 1%

0% -2% -50%

62%

34%

42%

15%

-3% -31%

-17%

-24% -62%

-59%

-47%

-100%



14

0.00


$0.070

$0.038

$0.025

$0.023

Venturex

Hot Chili

Rex

Altona

$0.236

$0.276

$0.101

0.20

Nzuri

Tiger

Oz Minerals

$0.364

0.40

Hillgrove

$0.423

$0.208

$0.004

$0.006 Altona

Caravel

$0.007

$0.019

Rex

Hot Chili

$0.020

$0.056 KGL

Venturex

$0.064

Nzuri

$0.088

Avanco

$0.095

Azure $0.093

$0.096

Hillgrove

Oz Minerals

$0.098

$0.123

Aeris Tiger

$0.130

Stavely

Sandfire

$0.402

0.00 Syndicated

0.10 $0.411

0.20

Aeris

$0.511

0.60

Talisman

0.80

$0.618

0.30

Talisman

0.40

Finders

1.00

$0.863

1.80 Finders

0.50

Sandfire

2.00 $0.588

$0.592

0.60

Avanco

Thundelarra

0.70

$1.835

Copper Peer Company Valuations EV / Resource (A$/lb CuEq) March Resource Metric

March Average $0.155/lb

February Average $0.159/lb

EV / Reserve (A$/lb CuEq)

March Reserve Metric


1.60


1.40

1.20

15

Copper Sector Liquidity / Shorts Copper Sector Liquidity 16.0% % Change Decrease % Change Increase 4.3% February Average 4.9% March Average

14.0% 12.0%

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

KGL

Syndicated

Hillgrove

Hot Chili

Aeris

Thundelarra

Rex

Regal

Stavely

Venturex

Talisman

Intrepid

Altona

Azure

Caravel

Avanco

Oz Min

Sandfire

0.0%


Copper Sector Short Positions 4.0%

% Change Decrease

% Change Increase

3.5%

1.5% February Average 1.3% March Average

3.0% 2.5%

2.0% 1.5%

1.0% 0.5%

Avanco

Tiger

Oz Min

Sandfire

0.0%



16

Copper Transaction Metrics - Resource and Reserve Multiples

Transaction multiples based on copper price of US$3.03/lb - 31 March 2018

Exploration (US$/lb CuEq)

$0

$0.011

Development (US$/lb CuEq)

$0.011

$0.095

$0 $0

$0

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0.006

$0

$0

$0.040

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0.032

$0.028 $0.020

$0.017

$0

$0

1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

Operation (US$/lb CuEq)

5 yr average

$0 $0.254

$0.254

$0

$0

$0.347

$0

$0

$0.305

$0

$0

$0.200

$0

$0

$0.187 $0

$0.096 $0

N/a

$0

$0

3 yr average

$0.444

$0

$0

1 yr average

Care & Maintenance (US$/lb CuEq)

$1

$0

$0

$0

1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

1 yr average

$0.010 3 yr average

$0.019 5 yr average

N/a

Resource

Reserve



17

NICKEL Thermometer


18

Nickel Stocks Relative Performance 1 Month Share Price Performance - Average -2% 10% 9%

7% 4%

5%

0%

0%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-4% -7%

-10%

-9%

-10%

-10%

-15%


11%

10%

5%

4%

4% 0%

0% -5%

0%

0%

-3%

-5%

-3%

-10% -15%

-15%

-20% -25%

-24%

-30%


74%

64% 60%

40%

39%

33%

31%

28%

35%

20% 0%

0% -2%

-3%

-20%

-18%

-40%



19

Nickel Peer Company Valuations 1.80

$1.704

EV / Resource (A$/lb NiEq) March Resource Metric March Average $0.289/lb

1.60


1.40 1.20 1.00

$0.010

$0.044 Highlands

$0.023

$0.058 Poseidon

$0.109

$0.160

0.20

Panoramic

0.40

$0.169

$0.320

0.60

Mincor

0.80

Cassini

Rox

Duketon

Independence

Western Areas

0.00

EV / Reserve (A$/lb NiEq) 3.00


$2.318

$2.440

2.50

March Reserve Metric February Average $1.125/lb

2.00

$0.212

0.50

$0.301

1.00

$0.607

$0.846

1.50


Highlands

Poseidon

Panoramic

Mincor

Western Areas

Independence

0.00

20

Nickel Sector Liquidity / Shorts Nickel Sector Liquidity 30.0% % Change Decrease % Change Increase

25.0%


20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

Highlands

Duketon

Poseidon

Rox

Mincor

Cassini

Panoramic

Western Areas

Independence

0.0%


Nickel Sector Short Positions % Change Decrease 14.0%

% Change Increase 7.5% February Average

12.0%

4.2% March Average

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

Panoramic

Poseidon

Western Areas

Independence

0.0%



21

Nickel Transaction Metrics - Resource and Reserve Multiples

Transaction multiples based on nickel price of US$6.01/lb - 31 March 2018

Exploration (US$/lb NiEq)

Development (US$/lb NiEq)

$0

$1

$0.024

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0 $0 $0

$0.521 $1

$0.008

$0

1 yr average

N/a

$0

N/a

3 yr average

5 yr average

Operation (US$/lb NiEq)

$0

1 yr average

N/a

3 yr average

5 yr average

Care & Maintenance (US$/lb NiEq)

$1 $0.520

$0.520

$1

$0

$0.047

$0 $0.039

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0

$0.266

$0.266

$0

$0 $0

$0

$0

$0 $0

N/a 1 yr average

N/a

$0

3 yr average

5 yr average

Resource

$0

1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

Reserve



22

IRON ORE Thermometer


23

Iron Ore Stocks Relative Performance 1 Month Share Price Performance - Average -8% 8%

10%

5%

5% 0%

-1% -5%

-4%

-5%

-10% -12%

-13%

-15% -20%

-8%

-10% -14%

-16% -20%

-25%

-25%

-30%


10%

5%

5% 0%

-1% -5%

-4%

-5%

-10% -13%

-15% -20%

-8%

-10% -12% -14%

-16% -20%

-25%

-25%

-30%


85% 75%

80%

57%

60% 40%

50%

15%

20%

3%

0% -2% -20%

-19%

-23% -40% -60%

-30%

-33%

-10%

-46%



24

Iron Ore Peer Company Valuations EV / Resource (A$/dmt Fe) March Resource Metric

$8.09

9.00

March Average $1.583/t

8.00

February Average $1.719/t

7.00 6.00

$3.54

5.00

$0.02

Sundance

$0.02

$0.12 Centaurus

Coziron

Fortescue

Tawana

Mt Gibson

Crusader

0.00

BC Iron

$0.17 Atlas

1.00

$0.20

$0.90

2.00

Flinders

3.00

$0.43

$2.35

4.00

25.00

March Reserve Metric $24.25

30.00

$25.15

EV / Reserve (A$/dmt Fe)

March Average $9.139/t February Average $9.447/t

Atlas

Fortescue

Crusader

Mt Gibson

Tawana

0.00


$0.14 BC Iron

$0.24 Sundance

5.00

$0.49

$6.02

10.00

Centaurus

15.00

$3.29

$13.53

20.00

25

Iron Ore Sector Liquidity / Shorts Iron Ore Sector Liquidity 60.0% % Change Decrease % Change Increase 8.1% February Average

50.0%

5.3% March Average 40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

Iron Road

Flinders

Gindalbie

Crusader

Coziron

Sundance

BC Iron

Grange

Mt Gibson

Tawana

Atlas

Centaurus

FMG

0.0%


Iron Ore Sector Short Positions 3.5%

% Change Decrease

% Change Increase 3.0%


2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

Sundance

Centaurus

Grange

BC Iron

Atlas

Tawana

Mt Gibson

FMG

0.0%



26

Iron Ore Transaction Metrics - Resource and Reserve Multiples

Transaction multiples based on iron ore price of US$63/t - 31 March 2018

Exploration (US$/dmt Fe)

Development (US$/dmt Fe)

$0

$0.420

$0

$1

$0

$0.250

$0

$1

$0

$1

$0

$0

$0

$0

$1.260

$1

$0

$0

$1

$0

N/a 1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

Operation (US$/dmt Fe)

$0

N/a

N/a

1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

Care & Maintenance (US$/dmt Fe)

$14

$13.090

$1 $1

$12

$1

$10

$1

$8

$4.070

$4

$0

N

$2.410

$2.950

$0 $0 $0

N/a 1 yr average

eco ns r

io

sact

n o tra

$1

$6

$2

rded

$1

$0

3 yr average

5 yr average

Resource

$0

1 yr average

3 yr average

5 yr average

Reserve



27

Explanatory Notes Information presented in this pack references data to 31 March 2018. The following notes may be of assistance when interpreting information contained throughout this pack.

Market Analysis Price Performance

•

1, 3 and 12 month share price performance in percentage terms is illustrated for each sector along with relevant commodity price and index performance for comparison purposes

•

Market-based valuation metrics (or ‘peer’ metrics) are calculated based upon: • end-of-month market capitalisation (MC) data; • most recent balance date net debt (cash) figures to determine enterprise value (EV); and • most recent published Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves (where appropriate)

•

Liquidity is calculated as the number of shares traded in the month as a percentage of total shares on issue. Liquidity bar charts illustrate the change in liquidity from the previous to the current month Companies are presented in order with the most liquid company in the current month on the LHS of the bar chart

Peer Company Valuations

Liquidity • • • Short Positions • • Transaction Metrics

•

‘Short’ data is sourced from the ASIC published short position data Short Positions are calculated as the number of shares traded and reported as a ‘short sale’ in the month, as a percentage of total shares on issue. Short Position bar charts illustrate the change in Short Positions from the previous to the current month Companies are presented in order with the most ‘shorted’ company in the current month on the LHS of the bar chart Transaction Metrics relate to completed asset (or project) transactions. Corporatelevel transactions (such as ‘change of control’ transactions), as well as Options and JV/Farm-In style transactions do not form part of this analysis Announced transactions still in progress and yet to complete do not form part of this analysis

PCF notes that reference to metal equivalents (AuEq, CuEq, NiEq) does not comply with JORC (2012) Guidelines. Metal equivalents are used throughout this pack to provide a level of comparative analysis between companies with assets of varying commodity types.


28

Explanatory Notes Company List • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Alacer Gold Corp Alkane Resources Ltd Aurelia Metals Ltd Austral Gold Ltd Beadell Resources Ltd Blackham Resources Ltd Doray Minerals Ltd Evolution Mining Ltd Havilah Resources Ltd Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd Kingrose Medusa Mining Ltd Millennium Minerals Ltd Newcrest Mining Ltd

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Northern Star Resources Ltd OceanaGold Corp PanTerra Gold Ltd Pantoro Ltd Perseus Mining Ltd Ramelius Resources Ltd Red 5 Ltd Regis Resources Ltd Resolute Mining Ltd Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd Silver Lake Resources Ltd St Barbara Ltd Troy Resources Ltd Westgold Resources Ltd WPG Resources Ltd

• • • • • • • • • • • • •

ABM Resources NL Amani Gold Ltd (previously Burey Gold Ltd) Anova Metals Ltd Azumah Resources Ltd Bassari Resources Ltd Capricorn Metals Ltd Cardinal Resources Ltd Carbine Resources Ltd Chalice Gold Mines Ltd Crusader Resources Ltd Dacian Gold Ltd Eastern Goldfields Ltd Echo Resources Limited

• • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Excelsior Gold Ltd Focus Minerals Ltd Gascoyne Resources Ltd Gold Road Resources Ltd Horizon Gold Limited Kin Mining NL Oklo Resources Ltd Orecorp Ltd Orinoco Gold Ltd Primary Gold Ltd S2 Resources Ltd Tanami Gold NL Tanga Resources Ltd West African Resources Ltd

Copper

• • • • • • • • • •

Aeris Resources Ltd Altona Mining Ltd Avanco Resources Ltd Azure Minerals Ltd Caravel Minerals Ltd Finders Resources Ltd Hillgrove Resources Ltd Hot Chili Ltd Intrepid Mines NL KGL Resources Ltd

• • • • • • • • • •

Oz Minerals Ltd Nzuri Copper Ltd (previously Regal Resources Ltd) Rex Minerals Ltd Sandfire Resources NL Stavely Minerals Ltd Syndicated Metals Ltd Talisman Mining Ltd Thundelarra Ltd Tiger Resources Ltd Venturex Resources Ltd

Nickel

• • • • •

Cassini Resources Ltd Duketon Mining Ltd Highlands Pacific Ltd Independence Group NL Mincor Resources NL

• • • •

Panoramic Resources Ltd Poseidon Nickel Ltd Rox Resources Ltd Western Areas Ltd

Iron Ore

• • • • • • • •

Amex Resources Ltd Atlas Iron Ltd BC Iron Ltd Centaurus Metals Ltd Champion Iron Ltd Coziron Resources Ltd Crusader Resources Ltd Flinders Mines Ltd

• • • • • • •

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Gindalbie Metals Ltd Grange Resources Ltd Iron Road Ltd Mt Gibson Iron Ltd Sundance Resources Ltd Tawana Resources NL

Gold Producers

Gold Explorers/ Developers

1. Abbreviated company names have been used throughout this presentation in the interest of visual reference.


29

Level 3, 8 Colin Street, West Perth Western Australia, Australia, 6005 Tel +61 8 9486 7111 Email: [email protected]

www.pcfcapital.com.au

This publication has been prepared by PCF Capital Group Pty Ltd (“PCF“). The publication has been prepared solely for the internal use of PCF clients and may not be relied upon for any other purpose. It cannot be reproduced, copied or provided to a third party without the prior written consent of PCF. To whom this information is provided This publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. No warranties made as to content The information contained in this presentation is provided for information purposes only. Accordingly, it is provided on the basis of no liability whatsoever to PCF, or the directors, officers and employees of PCF who will not be responsible for any damages arising from any use made of the information herein. While all care has been taken in its preparation, this information has not been independently audited and PCF, or the directors, officers and employees of PCF make no representation and give no warranty or undertaking, express or implied, nor assume any responsibility for the authenticity, origin, validity, accuracy or completeness, or for any errors or omissions contained in the information. The assumptions that were made in its preparation were based on publicly available information which has not been verified by PCF, or formally audited. Copyright Copyright in this publication is owned by PCF. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without PCF’s consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other person or incorporate the information into any other document.