Recent years has witnessed extreme weather events including bushfires, ... the Victorian Royal Commission on Bushfires, the research by the Coasts and ...
Planning for Risk and Uncertainty New approaches to managing urban growth
Barbara Norman and Kate Sullivan Canberra University
AFAC & Bushfire CRC Conference 2011 Darling Harbour, Australia 29 August - 1 September
Abstract: Recent years has witnessed extreme weather events including bushfires, drought, floods and storms. These extreme weather events are challenging the current way we manage urban development particularly on the urban fringe and the coastal zone. New approaches to managing urban growth will need to be developed that plan for increasing risk and uncertainty in the context of climate change.
This paper examines the current connections and gaps between urban planning and emergency management and explores possible new pathways forward to reduce risk to urban communities including scenario planning and community engagement. It identifies some shared learning from the Victorian Royal Commission on Bushfires, the research by the Coasts and Climate Change Council and the 2011 floods that could provide the foundation for a new approach to managing urban growth for long- term sustainability. A new way of thinking and a more collaborative and interdisciplinary approach is required. The possible consequences for all levels of government, urban planning and emergency management are then canvassed for further discussion.
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Introduction Urban and regional planning is an evolving practice in Australia, predominantly focused on our growing cities. In more recent years, there has been an increasing interest in ‘regional’ planning, recognising that key rural centres are also experiencing growth that needs to be managed sustainably. The focus of this paper is on how we manage such urban growth in the context of extreme weather events and climate change. The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA), the national body representing planning professionals, provides the following definition for the discipline:
Planning is the process of making decisions to guide future action. The planning profession … is specifically concerned with shaping cities, towns and regions by managing development, infrastructure and services.
Urban & regional planning is the discipline of spatial planning concerned with the allocation and connection of land uses within cities and towns and across regions ... Urban planning … involves the design and management of built-up areas and settlements in both metropolitan and rural contexts. Regional planning takes in development and connections over a broader area, at a less detailed level (PIA 2011).
In other words, it is the ‘spatial dimension’ that concerns urban and regional planning—the form and structure of urban settlement. How this pattern of urban settlement assists or hinders emergency planning and disaster management is the critical question posed in this paper. Planning for ‘risk and uncertainty’ has always been part of the planning challenge, but the onset of climate change with the predictions of extreme weather events has added a new order of dimension (IPCC 2007, Steffen 2009). The link between the planning of urban settlement and emergency management is now critical—that is, location matters. Extreme weather and climate change in Australia
Australia has long experienced extreme weather and adapted to this. However, there are two trends that concern the future risk of communities. These are the impacts of climate change on the one hand and the increasing spread of urban development on the other. The overlap of current and future urban growth corridors with locations identified at risk from climate change is the problem. This raises the question: are we placing more and more people at risk in the context of climate change through our current and future pattern of growth? The Critical Decade 2011 clearly outlines the risks from climate change for Australian communities. The key messages include that: 1. There is no doubt that the climate is changing. The evidence is overwhelming and clear.
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2. We are already seeing the social, economic and environmental impacts of a changing climate. 3. It is beyond reasonable doubt that human activities—the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation—are triggering the changes we are witnessing in the global climate. 4. This is the critical decade. Decisions we make from now to 2020 will determine the severity of climate change our children and grandchildren experience (Climate Commission 2011, ‘The critical decade: key messages’).
A series of federal government reports have provided increasing certainty as to what the impacts of climate change may be (DCCEE 2010, 2011), including the work of the national Coasts and Climate Change Council, which has focused on sea level rise, storm surge and a coincidence of events (CCCC, 2010). These reports have emphasised the need for more attention to urban planning as a preventative measure. Equally, the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission noted that the risks associated with bushfires are increasing as a result of population changes at the rural-urban interface and the impacts of climate change. The commission concluded that ‘planning decisions in relation to settlement matters, land use and development, and the location of individual buildings on a property can potentially reduce bushfire risk’ (Teague, McLeod & Pascoe 2009, p. 214). Integrated urban and regional planning offers a crucial cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary, adaptive framework to address interrelated critical challenges. These include bushfire and emergency risk management; climate change mitigation and adaptation—responding to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including bushfires; urban growth and settlement patterns—with populations at the rural-urban interface growing, the risks associated with bushfire are likely to increase; environmental management—balancing the conservation of native vegetation and the management of bushfire risk; infrastructure planning; and effective governance. Tackling each of the areas above requires an interdisciplinary approach, with mainstreaming across policy sectors. Urban and regional planning, as an integrating spatial process, therefore has a central role to play in this area.
The Canberra University research project, working with the Bushfire CRC, is focused on urban and regional planning for risk and uncertainty. The outcomes for the project are to ensure that bushfire risk and emergency management are better integrated into urban and regional planning processes—bushfire risk and emergency management will also be strengthened by improved understanding of the implications of policy processes in other sectors. Project level outcomes at this stage include:
• Identifying leading practice in strategic and statutory planning for fire risk and emergency management, and barriers to the incorporation of better practice in this area
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• Identifying areas of risk in land use planning for fire and emergency management and exploring the possibility of a more risk management approach to this area in the context of climate change • Developing a more integrated urban and regional planning framework for fire and emergency management in the context of climate change, to better manage urban growth, infrastructure planning and environmental impacts • Facilitating better use of regional planning, including regional scenario planning and regional profiles • Increased engagement and communication about planning for fire risk and emergency management in the context of climate change, and better communicating planning law in this area An increased focus on planning education for fire risk and emergency management and on building professional capacity in the planning sector to respond to projected extreme weather events in the context of climate change
These outcomes are preliminary and will be informed by case studies in the ACT, Victoria and Tasmania over the next two years. Shared learning from recent extreme weather
Increasingly there is an understanding of the significance of some shared learning emerging from recent extreme weather events. For example, the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission discussed the concept of buffers, the coastal climate change research also discusses buffers and retreats, and it is expected that the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry will mention the concept of buffers as one response to planning for risk and uncertainty. Buffers provide an important way of mitigating risk through absorbing impacts of natural hazards.
In relation to urban and regional planning, the following examples of shared learning could provide the basis for further discussion in formulating a general set of planning principles to incorporate into an urban and regional planning policy: 1. Understanding the science and identifying the risks for current and future communities 2. Introducing the concept of buffers in planning future urban development or redevelopment 3. Incorporating the broader concept of resilience into the planning system, including social considerations 4. Applying a range of planning policy instruments, including climate change mitigation and adaptation responses 5. Monitoring change and adaptation over time to better assess the outcomes and provide the basis for continuing improvement
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Many of the above actions are already being put in place but some are more politically acceptable than others. When dealing with property interests and rights under the planning system reform is always challenging. However, it is argued that as the risks are more clearly identified then the policy responses also become clearer to both the decision makers and those affected. This is why it is so critical to better connect the science of risk, spatial planning and emergency management to minimise risk to current and future communities. Planning for risk and uncertainty
Planning for more risk and uncertainty will require a new set of tools for decision making. The insurance industry already recognises that simply relying on historical data is inadequate in planning for climate change. New tools include ‘scenario planning’ that facilitates exploring the ‘what if’ visioning tools and adaptation responses that incorporate risk management. Swiss Re has conducted important recent work in this area, noting that a risk management approach that takes into account ‘long-term climate trends and varying future scenarios’ is key to protecting communities from the unpredictable consequences of climate change (Reichenmiller et al 2010, p. 15). Scenario planning assists decision makers in identifying adaptation measures for a range of climate change outcomes (Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group 2009). A considerable amount of research is occurring on the risk of sea level rise and adaptive coastal management. The diagram below is illustrative of the suite of possible responses—short, medium and long term—and the possible planning responses. Importantly ‘space’ will be necessary for adaptation—that is, somewhere to move to or for buffers or for green infrastructure. While this is for the coastal environment, it is not difficult to imagine the parallel response for bushfire prone areas. Coastal adaptation model—an example of planning for risk
Legal liability issues raised in planning for risk and uncertainty in the context of climate change are also of concern to decision makers. Broader matters here relate to risk disclosure; improving statutory planning frameworks—ensuring adaption to climate change impacts through proactive
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measures in local planning schemes; taking a precautionary approach; and preventing future harm (Environmental Defender’s Office of NSW 2011 & McDonald 2010). A new way of thinking …
As our cities and regions grow, there will be an increasing spread of urban development into areas identified as high risk from bushfire and other extreme weather events. In some case the impacts of climate change will exacerbate the situation. This outcome can be better managed if we integrate the risks identified by the science and emergency management early into planning decisions concerning the nature and location of urban development—new or redeveloped. This will require better information from the scientists but more importantly it will require a more adaptive planning system that builds resilience into decision making, particularly at the local level. This must include the ability for local councils to say ‘no’ to inappropriate development in high-risk areas without fear of future challenge or liability. This is one of the key continuing impediments to change. Education and understanding will also be critical and is a strong focus of the Canberra University research project. Planning for risk and uncertainty for future urban growth will not just be a challenge for bushfire prone areas; it will be a broader national challenge impacting on the nature and location of future urban development, particularly in planning for climate change. This paper outlines the challenges ahead. The case studies that will be undertaken over the next year or so will test possible policy responses that could better integrate risk management into the planning system. The outcome should be clear—to minimise risk to current and future communities from extreme weather including bushfires and in doing so provide more certainty, not less, for decision makers on the ground.
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References Climate Commission (2011) The critical decade: climate science, risks and responses. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra) Climate Commission (2011) ‘The critical decade: key messages’. Climate Commission website accessed 15 July 2011 Coasts and Climate Change Council (2010) ‘Report to Minister Combet’, DCCEE website accessed 14 July 2011 Department of Climate Change (2009) Climate change risks to Australia’s coast: a first pass national assessment. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra)
Department of Climate Change (2010) Adapting to Climate Change in Australia—an Australian Government position paper. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra) Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (2010) Developing a national coastal adaptation agenda: a report on the national climate change forum. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra)
Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (2011) Climate change risks to coastal buildings and infrastructure—a supplement to the first pass national assessment. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra) Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: a framework for decision-making, Swiss Re et al (Economics of Climate Adaptation: Zurich) Environmental Defenders Office of NSW (2011) Audit of sea level rise, coastal erosion and inundation legislation and policy. Sydney Coastal Councils Group (SCCG: Sydney)
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Norman B (2010) A low carbon and resilient urban future: an integrated approach to planning for climate change. Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra) Planning Institute of Australia (2011) ‘What is planning’ & ‘Chapter membership requirements’. PIA website accessed 15 July 2011 & Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (2011) Public submissions accessed 15 July 2011
Reichenmiller P, Spiegel A, Bresch D & Schnarwiler R (2010) Weathering climate change: insurance solutions for more resilient communities. (Swiss Re: Zurich)
Steffen, W (2009) Climate change science: faster change and more serious risk. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra) Teague, B, McLeod, R & Pascoe, S (2010) Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission: fire preparation, response and recovery—final report. Vol. 2, pt 2 (State of Victoria: Melbourne).
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