Aug 29, 2011 - Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 20
Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on August 24-25, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 927 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points). The sample includes 805 interviews among landline respondents and 212 interviews among cell phone respondents.
FOR RELEASE: MONDAY, AUGUST 29, 2011 AT 1:30
BASED ON 467 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 28.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER)
Perry Romney Palin Bachmann Giuliani Gingrich Paul Cain Johnson Huntsman Santorum McCotter Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion
POLL 14
Aug. 24-25 2011
Aug. 5-7 2011
July 18-20 2011
27% 14% 10% 9% 9% 6% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% * 3% 5% 3%
15% 17% 12% 7% 12% 5% 12% 4% * 4% 2% * 4% 4% 2%
14% 16% 13% 12% 13% 4% 8% 6% * 1% 2% * 4% 8% 1%
-2-
August 24-25, 2011
BASED ON 467 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 28.
29. 30.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else (RANDOM ORDER) And who would be your second choice? And who would be your third choice? HORSE RACE WITHOUT RUDY GIULIANI OR SARAH PALIN
Perry Romney Bachmann Gingrich Paul Cain Johnson Huntsman Santorum McCotter Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion
Aug. 24-25 2011
Aug. 5-7 2011
July 18-20 2011
32% 18% 12% 7% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 6% 4%
18% 23% 9% 8% 14% 5% * 5% 3% * 5% 5% 4%
17% 22% 14% 5% 12% 7% * 1% 2% * 7% 10% 2%
Data indicates the second choice for respondents who chose Giuliani or Palin as their first choice, and indicates the third choice for respondents who chose both Giuliani and Palin as their first and second choices.
POLL 14
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August 24-25, 2011
BASED ON 463 DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 31.
Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012?
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion
Aug. 24-25 2011
Aug. 5-7 2011
July 18-20 2011
72% 27% 1%
70% 28% 1%
77% 22% 1%
June 3-7 2011 Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion
May 24-26 Apr. 29-May 1 2011 2011
Apr. 9-10 2011
Mar. 11-13 2011
81% 18% 1%
79% 19% 2%
78% 21% 1%
83% 16% 1%
76% 21% 2%
Jan. 21-23 2010
Dec. 17-19 2010
Oct. 27-30 2010
Aug. 6-10 2010
Mar 19-21 2010
78% 20% 1%
78% 19% 3%
73% 22% 5%
74% 23% 2%
76% 20% 4%
FOR COMPARISON CNN/TIME TREND QUESTION WORDING: Do you think the Democratic party should re-nominate Bill Clinton as the party’s candidate in 1996 or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for President in 1996? Nov. 9-10, 1994 Renominate Clinton Different candidate No opinion
POLL 14
57 32 11
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August 24-25, 2011
CNN/ORC INTERNATIONAL POLL -- Aug 24 to 25, 2011 Question 28 Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Base = Republicans Total Men Women White ----------------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 6% 6% 5% 7% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 10% 8% 13% 10% TX Congressman Ron Paul 6% 6% 5% 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 14% 14% 15% 16% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 1% 1% 1% 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 9% 8% 10% 9% Frm UT Gov Jon Huntsman 1% 2% * 2% Businessman Herman Cain 2% 2% 2% 3% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 9% 8% 11% 10% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson 2% 2% 2% 1% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter * * * * Texas Governor Rick Perry 27% 32% 23% 28% Someone else 3% 1% 6% 2% None/No one 5% 7% 4% 3% No opinion 3% 3% 3% 4% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.0 Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 6% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 10% TX Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 14% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 9% Frm UT Gov Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 2% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 9% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter * Texas Governor Rick Perry 27% Someone else 3% None/No one 5% No opinion 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5
1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Under Total $50K --------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 6% 8% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 10% 14% TX Congressman Ron Paul 6% 5% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 14% 13% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 1% * MN Congr Michele Bachmann 9% 11% Frm UT Gov Jon Huntsman 1% 2% Businessman Herman Cain 2% 2% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 9% 10% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson 2% 1% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter * * Texas Governor Rick Perry 27% 19% Someone else 3% 3% None/No one 5% 10% No opinion 3% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5
3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------3% 10% 6% 16% 1% 9% 1% 1% 8% 4% * 33% 4% 1% 3% +/-6.5
Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5064 ----1% 14% 4% 15% * 11% 2% 3% 9% * * 34% 4% 3% 3% +/-7.5 No College ------7% 16% 6% 10% 2% 7% 1% 3% 8% 5% 1% 22% 2% 10% 1% +/-8.0
65+ ----7% 2% 4% 20% 4% 11% 3% 3% 8% 2% 1% 26% 1% 4% 5% +/-8.0
Under 50 ----8% 12% 7% 13% 1% 7% 1% 1% 10% 3% * 24% 4% 7% 2% +/-8.0
50 and Older -----3% 9% 4% 17% 1% 11% 2% 3% 9% 1% * 31% 2% 3% 4% +/-5.5
Attended College -------5% 7% 5% 17% 1% 10% 1% 2% 11% * * 31% 4% 2% 4% +/-5.5
* percentage less than 1%
POLL 14
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August 24-25, 2011
CNN/ORC INTERNATIONAL POLL -- Aug 24 to 25, 2011 Question 28 Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Base = Republicans Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 6% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 10% TX Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 14% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 9% Frm UT Gov Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 2% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 9% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter * Texas Governor Rick Perry 27% Someone else 3% None/No one 5% No opinion 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 6% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 10% TX Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 14% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 9% Frm UT Gov Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 2% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 9% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter * Texas Governor Rick Perry 27% Someone else 3% None/No one 5% No opinion 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 6% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 10% TX Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 14% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 9% Frm UT Gov Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 2% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 9% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter * Texas Governor Rick Perry 27% Someone else 3% None/No one 5% No opinion 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5
POLL 14
Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Independent -----9% 14% 6% 13% 1% 6% 1% 3% 6% 2% * 26% 2% 6% 4% +/-7.0
North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Tea Pty Support ------6% 6% 5% 11% 2% 14% 2% 2% 4% * * 37% 4% 3% 3% +/-6.5
Tea Pty Neutral ------5% 14% 6% 16% 1% 6% * 3% 15% 4% 1% 18% 1% 7% 3% +/-7.0
Republican -----3% 8% 5% 16% 1% 11% 2% 2% 12% 2% * 29% 4% 4% 2% +/-6.0 South ----4% 13% 9% 14% 1% 5% 1% 2% 5% 3% * 31% 3% 3% 4% +/-7.0
Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Moderate ----8% 15% 5% 11% * 11% 1% 2% 12% 2% * 18% 3% 9% 3% +/-8.5 Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Conservative ------4% 8% 7% 17% 2% 8% 1% 2% 8% * * 34% 3% 3% 3% +/-5.5
Suburban ----4% 6% 8% 18% * 11% 1% 1% 5% 4% * 32% 4% 3% 3% +/-6.5
Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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August 24-25, 2011
CNN/ORC INTERNATIONAL POLL -- Aug 24 to 25, 2011 Question 28/29/30 - Excludes Giuliani and Palin Q28. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Q29. And who would be your second choice? Q30. And who would be your third choice? Base = Republicans Total Men Women White ----------------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 7% 8% 7% 8% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% 7% 6% 7% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 18% 16% 19% 19% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 1% 1% 2% 2% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 12% 10% 14% 12% Frm UT Governor Jon Huntsman 1% 2% * 2% Businessman Herman Cain 3% 3% 3% 4% Frm NM Governor Gary Johnson 2% 2% 3% 1% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter 1% 1% 2% 1% TX Governor Rick Perry 32% 34% 30% 33% Someone else 4% 3% 6% 3% None/No one 6% 8% 4% 3% No opinion 4% 5% 4% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.0 Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 7% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 18% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 12% Frm UT Governor Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 3% Frm NM Governor Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter 1% TX Governor Rick Perry 32% Someone else 4% None/No one 6% No opinion 4% Sampling Error +/-4.5
1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Under Total $50K --------Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 7% 10% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 18% 17% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 1% 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 12% 16% Frm UT Governor Jon Huntsman 1% 2% Businessman Herman Cain 3% 3% Frm NM Governor Gary Johnson 2% 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter 1% 1% TX Governor Rick Perry 32% 22% Someone else 4% 5% None/No one 6% 11% No opinion 4% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5
3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------4% 6% 19% 2% 11% 1% 2% 4% 1% 40% 5% 1% 3% +/-6.5
Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5064 ----1% 5% 17% * 13% 2% 5% * * 40% 5% 4% 7% +/-7.5 No College ------7% 8% 13% 2% 10% 1% 5% 5% 2% 28% 3% 11% 4% +/-8.0
65+ ----7% 4% 23% 4% 13% 3% 3% 2% 1% 29% 1% 6% 5% +/-8.0
Under 50 ----10% 8% 16% 1% 12% 1% 3% 4% 2% 28% 5% 7% 3% +/-8.0
50 and Older -----4% 5% 19% 2% 13% 2% 4% 1% * 36% 3% 5% 6% +/-5.5
Attended College -------8% 5% 20% 1% 14% 1% 2% * 1% 35% 5% 3% 5% +/-5.5
* percentage less than 1%
POLL 14
-7-
August 24-25, 2011
CNN/ORC INTERNATIONAL POLL -- Aug 24 to 25, 2011 Question 28/29/30 - Excludes Giuliani and Palin Q28. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Q29. And who would be your second choice? Q30. And who would be your third choice? Base = Republicans Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 7% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 18% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 12% Frm UT Governor Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 3% Frm NM Governor Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter 1% TX Governor Rick Perry 32% Someone else 4% None/No one 6% No opinion 4% Sampling Error +/-4.5 Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 7% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 18% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 12% Frm UT Governor Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 3% Frm NM Governor Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter 1% TX Governor Rick Perry 32% Someone else 4% None/No one 6% No opinion 4% Sampling Error +/-4.5 Total ----Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 7% Texas Congressman Ron Paul 6% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 18% Frm PA Senator Rick Santorum 1% MN Congr Michele Bachmann 12% Frm UT Governor Jon Huntsman 1% Businessman Herman Cain 3% Frm NM Governor Gary Johnson 2% MI Congr Thaddeus McCotter 1% TX Governor Rick Perry 32% Someone else 4% None/No one 6% No opinion 4% Sampling Error +/-4.5
Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Independent -----11% 7% 15% 1% 9% 1% 5% 2% 1% 31% 3% 7% 6% +/-7.0
North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Tea Pty Support ------6% 6% 11% 2% 17% 2% 2% * * 41% 5% 4% 3% +/-6.5
Tea Pty Neutral ------8% 8% 22% 1% 9% * 5% 4% 2% 25% 3% 8% 6% +/-7.0
Republican -----5% 6% 20% 1% 14% 2% 2% 3% 1% 33% 5% 5% 3% +/-6.0 South ----6% 10% 17% 1% 8% 1% 3% 4% 1% 34% 5% 4% 7% +/-7.0
Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Moderate ----8% 6% 16% 1% 15% 2% 5% 3% 1% 20% 6% 11% 6% +/-8.5 Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Conservative ------6% 7% 19% 2% 11% 1% 3% * 1% 40% 3% 3% 4% +/-5.5
Suburban ----5% 9% 19% * 12% 1% 2% 4% * 34% 5% 5% 4% +/-6.5
Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
* percentage less than 1%
POLL 14
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August 24-25, 2011
CNN/ORC INTERNATIONAL POLL -- Aug 24 to 25, 2011 Question 31 Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012? Base = Democrats
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion Sampling Error
Total Men Women White ----------------72% 72% 72% 67% 27% 26% 27% 32% 1% 2% 1% 1% +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.5
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion Sampling Error
Total ----72% 27% 1% +/-4.5
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion Sampling Error
Under Total $50K --------72% 70% 27% 28% 1% 2% +/-4.5 +/-7.0
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion Sampling Error
Total ----72% 27% 1% +/-4.5
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion Sampling Error
Total ----72% 27% 1% +/-4.5
Renominate Obama Different candidate No opinion Sampling Error
Total ----72% 27% 1% +/-4.5
1834 ----N/A N/A N/A
Democrat ----73% 25% 2% +/-5.5
3549 ----N/A N/A N/A
5064 ----76% 24% * +/-8.0
$50K or more ------74% 26% * +/-7.0
Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A
Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A
Tea Pty Neutral ------59% 38% 2% +/-8.0
65+ ----69% 28% 3% +/-8.5
No College ------64% 33% 2% +/-8.0
Independent -----69% 30% * +/-8.5
North east ----N/A N/A N/A
Non-White --------N/A N/A N/A
Republican -----N/A N/A N/A
South ----71% 25% 3% +/-8.5
Under 50 ----71% 28% 1% +/-7.5
50 and Older -----74% 25% 1% +/-6.0
Attended College -------77% 22% 1% +/-5.5 Liberal ----82% 18% * +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A
Moderate ----67% 30% 3% +/-7.0 Urban ----76% 21% 3% +/-8.0
Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A
Suburban ----72% 28% 1% +/-7.0
Rural ----N/A N/A N/A
Tea Pty Oppose ------86% 13% * +/-6.0
* percentage less than 1%
POLL 14
-9-
August 24-25, 2011