Apr 24, 2009 ... Florian Coulmas. Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien. Tokyo. Population Decline
Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien. 2.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DE RECHERCHE SUR LE JAPON CONTEMPORAIN FRENCH INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH ON CONTEMPORARY JAPAN フランス国立現代日本研究センター UMIFRE 19 CNRS- MAEE
Population Decline and Ageing in Japan: The Social Consequences by Florian COULMAS (Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien, Tokyo)
Working paper - Série L : Lunch Seminar WP-L-05-IFRJC-Coulmas-09-04.pdf PPT presented during the Lunch Seminar on the 24th of April 2009, with Marc Humbert as a discussant at 日仏会館 for our フランス国立現代日本研究センター..
UMIFRE 19 CNRS-MAEE 〒150-0013 東京都渋谷区恵比寿 3-9-25 日仏会館 3-9-25, Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 150-0013 Japon TEL +81 (0) 3 5421 7641 / FAX +81 (0) 3 5421 7651 / http://www.mfj.gr.jp/
Population Decline and Ageing in Japan: The Social Consequences Maison franco japonaise, 24 April 2009 Florian Coulmas Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien Tokyo
Infant Mortality and TFR
http://www.gender.go.jp/whitepaper/h17/danjyo_hp/danjyo/html/zuhyo/fig01_00_12.html
http://www.gender.go.jp/whitepaper/h17/danjyo_hp/danjyo/html/zuhyo/fig01_00_12.html http://www.gender.go.jp/whitepaper/h17/danjyo_hp/danjyo/html/zuhyo/fig01_00_12.html
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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2
Mortality Pyramid 1920, 2005
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Average Life Expectancy:1947~2002
Source:Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Life Table (Complete Life Table)" "Abridged Life Table" for 2001 and 2002
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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4
Centenarians 1963-2005
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000
Men 男 女 Women 性 性
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
参考資料:国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 平成18年度版 人口統計資料集
Population change in comparison •
国
65歳以上人口の比率至るまで年数
•
7%
10%
14%
7% ~ 14%
• • • • • •
仏 スウェーデン 米国 スイス 英国 ドイツ
1864 1887 1942 1931 1929 1932
1943 1948 1972 1960 1946 1942
1979 1972 2014 1982 1976 1972
年数 115 85 72 51 47 40
•
日本
1970
1985
1994
25
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Total Population and Projections 1950- -2050
資料:国立社会保障・人口問題社会保障・人口問題研究所
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Changing Population Structure: three age groups 1950-2003 0-14
65-
35.4
1950
59.7
30.0
1960 1970
23.9
1980
23.5
1990
15-64
4.9
64.2
5.7
69.0
7.1
67.4
18.2
9.1
69.7
12.1
2000
14.6
68.1
17.4
2001
14.4
67.7
18.0
2002
14.2
67.3
18.5
2003
14.0
66.9
19.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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100%
8
GNP and TFR
30000
2,5
25000
2
20000 1,5 15000 1
GNI-Gross National Income (PPP $) Total fertility rate
10000 0,5
5000
0
0 1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2003
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Late Marriage
• • • • • •
初婚年齢 1950年 2005年 男 25,9歳 29,8歳 女 23,0歳 28,0歳 初産年齢 25,6歳 29,1歳
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Marriage and Divorce
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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12
Birth rate and age at first marriage 1955 - 2000
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
Desired number
Actual number
of children
of children
(ideal)
1977 2005
(TFR)
2.61 2.48
1.80 1.29
Data: “Dainanaji shussanryoku chōsa hōkoku”, Kōseisho jinkō mondai kenkyūsho (1977) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2005)
8
Difference
.81 1.19
13
Number of children per married couple, desired and planned
3,00
2,50
2,67
2,62
2,61
2,00 2,17
2,2
2,64 2,23
2,56
2,53 2,18
2,16
2,48 2,13
2,11
1,50
Desired Planned
1,00
0,50
0,00 1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2005
Data: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 2005. Dai 13kai kōkō kihon chōsa (fūfu chōsa). In: Akaibu Shuppan, Josei no kurashi to seikatsu ishiki detashū. Tokyo: Akaibu Shuppan, p.56
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
Desired number
Planned number
Actual
of children
of children
of children
(ideal) 2005
15
number
(TFR)
2.48 2.11 1.29
Data: “Daijusankai shussan dōkō kihon chōsa. Kekkon to shussan ni kansuru zenkoku chōsa. Kokuritsu shakai hoshō jinkō mondai kenkyūsho (2005) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2005)
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Single Person Households
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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Official suicide ciphers 1947 - 2006
Source: Naikakufu, “Jisatsu no gaiyō oyobi jisatsu taisaku no jisshi jōkyō” http://www.ncnp.go.jp/ikiru-hp/071220/03.pdf
Population Decline Florian Coulmas, Deutsches Institut für Japanstudien
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