POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION IN

In M. O. Ezenwa (Ed) Social sciences at a glance (2009)

Chapter Six

POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION IN NIGERIA

By Nwokoye, Ebele S. Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka Anambra Nigeria

INTRODUCTION The world estimated current population growth rate is 1.33%. UNFPA 1 further reports that World population is growing at 78 million a year, a little less than the total population of Germany! Over 95% of population growth is in developing countries, of which Nigeria is inclusive. UNFPA predicts that world population may grow up to 8.9 billion by 2050.

Nigeria’s population growth is heavily influenced by three main factors: birth, death and migration. Increase in population is determined by the difference between birth and deaths while the growth in population is determined both by the increase in population and the difference between emigration and immigration. Since the mid-seventies, there has been a large influx of foreigners into Nigeria occasioned by the oil boom and subsequent expansion of economic activities in the most populous black nation – Nigeria. With an equally persistent high level of fertility accompanied by declining mortality rate – occasioned by improved health facilities, the growth rate of Nigerian population has been on the increase with an average growth rate of 3.20%. Table 1 below shows that estimated population growth rate in Nigeria from the 1980s till 2006.

1

United Nations Population Fund (1999)

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Table 1 Population Growth in Nigeria Period

Population Growth rate

1980 – 1984

2.92 (1980)

1985 – 1989

2.76(1995)

1990 – 1994

2.87(1990)

1995

2.65

2000

2.37

2001

2.32

2002

2.27

2003

2.23

2004

2.20

2005

2.17

2006

3.20

Source: African Development Bank (2006)

Composition of a Country’s Population A country’s total population comprises of two groups of people: those in the labour force (within the age bracket of 18 years – 65 years as in the case in Nigeria) and people who are not in the labour force (those between the age brackets of 0 – 17 years and 65 years and above). The active population (as the labour force is often referred to) comprises of those who are actively employed and those who are unemployed due to one reason or the other. Figure 1 below is drawn to elucidate further the composition of a country’s population. Nigeria is as large as 924,768 square kilometers. According to the 2006 National Census, its population is close to 140.3 million people. The table below shows the zonal population figure from this census.

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Fig I Composition of the Population Employed

Total population

Labour force Employed & unemployed 18 yrs – 65 yrs Unemployed but willing to work if work is available

Dependent population 0 – 17 years & 65 years

Unemployed due to unwillingness to work, social practices, illhealth, disabilities

Culled from Nwabude, Ebele S. (2008)

Population and Economic Growth Economists recognize three groups of factor inputs: the natural, man-made and human resources. Human resources refer to those economic resources which are supplied by human beings. It comprises of those that supply their labour skills and those that supply their entrepreneurial skills. These two make up the labour force of any country.

Natural and man-made resources (land and capital respectively) cannot function efficiently without the effectiveness of human resources. For instance, labour is 71


needed to combine land and capital effectively for efficiency in output production. Entrepreneur is needed to supervise this effective combination. The role of human resources in economic growth and development cannot be overemphasized. A population whose dependent group outnumbers its labour force is in deep trouble; it means that those that produce the national output is less than those who contribute nothing to economic growth. Such an economy is expected to retard in growth and in alternative, to import foreign human capital and thereby lose huge foreign resources which could have been used in nation building – provision of basic infrastructures, national defense and security, pay workers salaries, etc.

In addition to the above mentioned point, Ezeaku (1993) points out that although the population of a country is the major source of its manpower supply, it also forms the major consumer of its Gross Domestic Product. Since not all the people are in the active population, it implies that an increasing population may constitute a clog in the wheel of economic growth of any nation. Hence, the advocacy for population control especially for economies where dependent population for outnumber it active population.

Table 2 Population Distribution in Nigeria Zone

Population figure (m)

North Central

20,266,257

North East

18,871,965

North West

35,786,944

South West

27,581,992

South East

16,381,729

South South

21,014,655

Source: National Population Commission

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Despite its large population size, Nigeria is unequally distributed as table I above indicates. For instance, the North West is recorded as the zone with the highest population while the South East has the least considering the fewer number of States that make up the zone. A closer analysis of the distribution of the 2006 population figures reveal that the male gender outnumber their female counterpart with 71,709,859 as the actual number of males and 68,293,683 as the actual number of female in Nigeria. Table 3 below equally contains Nigeria’s 2006 census figure by states as well as the estimated growth rate of each state.

Table 3 Nigeria’s 2006 Census Figures States

Population Figures

Growth Rate

Abia

2833999

2.7

Abuja

1405201

9.3

Adamawa

3168101

2.9

Akwa Ibom

3920208

NA

Anambra

4182032

2.8

Bauchi

4676465

3.4

Bayelsa

1703358

2.9

Benue

4219244

3.0

Borno

4151193

3.4

Cross River

2888966

2.9

Delta

4098391

3.2

Ebonyi

2173501

2.8

Edo

3218332

2.7

Ekiti

2364212

3.1

Enugu

3257298

3.0

Gombe

2353879

NA

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Imo

3934899

3.2

Jigawa

4348649

2.9

Kaduna

6066562

3.0

Kano

9383682

3.3

Kastina

5792578

3.0

Kebbi

3238628

3.1

Kogi

3278487

3.0

Kwara

2371089

3.0

Lagos

9013534

3.2

Nasarawa

1863275

3.0

Niger

3950249

3.4

Ogun

3728098

3.3

Ondo

3441024

3.0

Osun

3423535

3.2

Oyo

5591589

3.4

Plateau

3178712

2.7

Rivers

5185400

3.4

Sokoto

3696999

3.0

Taraba

2300736

2.9

Yobe

2321591

3.5

Zamfara

3259846

3.2

Source National Population Commission The table above indicates Lagos and Kano as the most populous states of the federation. One is not disappointed as these two ancient cities (Lagos and Kano) serve as the commercial base of Western and Northern Nigeria respectively. Additional information from the last census has it that out of the estimated 140

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million persons in Nigeria, about 71.7 million are males while 68.3 million are females.

References African Development Bank (2006). Gender, poverty and environmental indicators on African Countries.

Ezeaku, L. C. (1993) Human resource development and utilization, In L. C. Ezeaku (Ed). Growth, development and planning. Nigeria: Leverage Publishers Agulu.

National Population Commission (2009). Fiscal Report on 2006 National Census.

Nwabude, E. S. (2008). Impact of population growth on human resource development. Unpublished lecture notes, Department of Economics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka.

Ugbomeh, B. A. (1999). Population growth and its impact on the Nigerian environment: Policy implications for national development. In P. C. Egbon & C. C. Orubu (Eds) Critical issues in Nigeria’s development, FSS DELSU Abraka.

United Nations Population Fund (1999). The state of World population.

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