Predictive Proxy Indicators in Forest Plantations

Predictive Proxy Indicators in Forest Plantations: Empirical Validation through Machine Learning Pushpendra Rana University of Illinois

Abstract

Plantation programs are emerging as prominent forestry investments to enhance carbon sequestration and to ensure local livelihoods. Forest plantations often take years, even decades to mature and establish. Yet most national and international plantation projects usually last no more than five years, which presents a major challenge to near-term accountability and evaluation of their long-term social and ecological impacts. In this context, where direct evidence related to plantation maturity and ultimate impacts is not observable, predictive proxy indicators (PPIs) can be used. PPIs are social and ecological indicators that correlate well with long-term impacts and provide credible information about these future impacts based on observed historical evidence. In this study, I demonstrate how we can use historical data coupled with advanced machine learning algorithms to identify, test and validate PPIs in relation to forest plantations. The empirical example is based on long-term historical study of forest plantations carried out in 202 beats in northern India with and without communityinvolvement. The identification of PPIs involves first listing a potential set of PPIs based on theory, expert-opinion and local knowledge. This step is followed by machine learning to test potential PPIs to identify the most effective ones for predicting long-term survival and success of forest plantations, measured as changes in NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). I find that level of community involvement is an important PPI for long-term maturity of plantations. Key dimensions of the community involvement include the rule-making ability of local communities, sanctity of usufruct sharing agreements, level of incentives and local institutional strength. These results show that effective community involvement can help manage local population pressure and external disturbances such as fires to facilitate the growth of planted seedlings until they yield desired livelihoods benefits. In addition to its empirical contribution, this study presents a novel approach to understanding long-term impacts in the forest sector that has important policy implications and can be applied in many other circumstances around the world.

Conference themes: 1st Choice: Developing Approaches and Indicators to Assess Social and Ecological Outcomes 2nd Choice: Implementing Forest & Livelihood Policies