Senior Research Fellow, Griffith University. Paul Bell. Research Officer, UQ School of Economics. Leonora Risse. Senior
School of Economics
RESEARCH PROFILE 2009 to 2012
Place of origin of UQ School of Economics academics and students
The UQ School of Economics attracts talented academic staff and students from both Australia and internationally. The School’s 64 research and academic staff come from 31 countries, while more than 450 international undergraduate and postgraduate students from 48 countries enrol in its programs annually.
CONTENTS FOREWORD 3
PUBLICATION DETAILS Copywriter: Julia Renaud, Strategique Pty Ltd Publication date: July 2013
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MESSAGE FROM THE HEAD OF SCHOOL
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ABOUT UQ ECONOMICS
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OUR PEOPLE
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RESEARCH PROGRAMS
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EXTERNAL ENGAGEMENT
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RESEARCH TRAINING
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SELECTED GRANTS AND FELLOWSHIPS
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SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
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UQ FAST FACTS • UQ ranks in the top one per cent of universities in the world and is one of Australia’s premier learning and research institutions • Maximum five-star ranking for student demand, research grants and research intensity in The Australian Good Universities Guide (2012) • UQ has more specialised fields of research “well above world standard” than any other Australian university in the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) survey (2012) • Ranked in the Top 6 in the Asia Pacific and in the Top 100 worldwide in the University Academic Ranking of World Universities (2012)
Abbreviations used in this publication: APD Australian Postdoctoral Fellowship ARC Australian Research Council CEPA Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis CRC Cooperative Research Centres CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation DECRA Discovery Early Career Researcher Award Fellowship DoHA Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing EEMG Energy Economics and Management Group FTE Full Time Equivalent MDB Murray–Darling Basin MDBA Murray–Darling Basin Authority QLD Queensland RePEc Research Papers in Economics RHD Research Higher Degree RSMG Risk and Sustainable Management Group UQ The University of Queensland
FOREWORD Welcome to the first research profile from The University of Queensland (UQ) School of Economics. This report captures some of the highlights of a growth period in the School’s national, regional and global stature. UQ Economics researchers are among Australia’s most sought-after sources of economic commentary and analysis and the School ranks in the global top 501 under both Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) and QS World University Rankings. It is home to six Fellows of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia, two Australian Research Council
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(ARC) fellowship holders and a flourishing group of early career researchers. Collectively, the School’s researchers secured 15 per cent of the total ARC Discovery funding for economic theory, applied economics and econometrics in 2012. The School is manifestly committed to excellence and is deepening and broadening UQ’s historical focus on applied and theoretical research. This is particularly visible in the areas of economic theory, game theory and econometrics as well as health, environmental and experimental economics. Such strengths in discovery inform the School’s teaching, ensuring coursework as well as research students are beneficiaries of excellence. Like the University as a whole, UQ Economics continues to forge and enhance partnerships with industry, government agencies and not-for-profit organisations. At the core of these relationships is the imperative to make intellectual contributions that are relevant to economic policy and have positive implications for society.
anking of 46 in the QS World University Rankings (2012); ranked 65th in Times Higher Education World University R Rankings (2012-13); world ranking of 90 in the Academic Ranking of World Universities (2012)
The diversity of staff within the School influences its capacity to have a positive global impact, with most of the new academic recruits between 2009 and 2012 hailing from overseas. These talented economists and their networks of collaborators will help propel UQ towards being Australia’s most globally connected university. The successes encapsulated in this research profile have occurred under the leadership of Professor Flavio Menezes as Head of School. I congratulate Flavio and his terrific team of academic and professional staff and their students for their significant accomplishments. I look forward to observing their continuing achievements and applauding their positive impacts on local, national and global societies. Professor Peter Høj President and Vice-Chancellor The University of Queensland
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MESSAGE FROM THE HEAD OF SCHOOL The UQ School of Economics is pushing the boundaries of economic theory and extending our understanding and application of the discipline. The School’s research outcomes have wideranging impacts on government policy, industry decisions and public debate in Australia and internationally. In this research profile, the first produced by UQ Economics, you will find examples of research projects delivering new and valuable economic ideas. There are also examples of critical advice provided by the School’s researchers on policy formulation affecting climate change and energy generation along with the ramifications of human migration. Established in 1947, UQ Economics is a relatively new school. However, 2009 to 2012 marked a period of rapid growth and the School’s rise into the top 502 researchintensive economics departments globally. This ranking reflects the School’s vision to be an international leader in economics research. It is also indicative of the staff commitment to developing a dynamic and responsive research culture. This document provides highlights of our research successes and key metrics. Significantly, the School was successful in securing more than AU$7.1 million in research funding during this period.
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As in every academic institution, UQ Economics’ research prowess revolves around the calibre of its research leaders. The School has a tradition of cultivating significant researchers. Staff alumni include Colin G. Clark – the first Distinguished Fellow, Economic Society of Australia (ESA) and one of the first Australian-based Econometric Society Fellows – and Nobel Memorial Prize recipient John C. Harsanyi, a founder of Game Theory and Econometric Society Fellow.
Professor Flavio Menezes Head of School School of Economics, The University of Queensland
In the period 2009 to 2012, UQ Economics laid claim to a greater share of distinguished research fellows than any other Australian economics department. In 2012, the School had one Australian Laureate Fellow, two ARC Professorial Fellows, one DECRA Future Fellow and one ARC Postdoctoral Fellow. To maintain the high standard of research, the School developed a strategy to nurture the next generation of leading economics researchers—recruiting the brightest and best new talent from around the world. This strategy is having a major impact on research produced at UQ Economics as well as helping to ensure that its teaching and research are at the frontier of the discipline.
In December 2012, according to RePEc, UQ Economics ranked 43rd out of 1858 economics departments internationally. RePEc, is a collaborative effort of academics in 71 countries that ranks 10,700 institutions worldwide. It compares institutions and departments based on their economic research output and the impact of their publications. All RePEc materials, including complete details about the rankings, are available at http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.econdept.html
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Looking to the immediate future, UQ Economics aims to retain its research dominance in economic theory, while building on its strength in econometrics and further developing capability in applied areas. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy learning more about the UQ School of Economics as you read this research profile.
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS – 2009-2012 • RePEc ranking increased from the top five per cent (2009) of researchintensive economic institutions in the world to the top two per cent (2012) • In 2012, secured 15 per cent (AU$1.07 million) of the total ARC Discovery Grant funding for Economic Theory, Applied Economics and Econometrics • Five new research fellowships awarded
ABOUT UQ ECONOMICS
FAST FACTS – UQ ECONOMICS • RePEc (December 2012) ranked UQ Economics as the top department in Australia and 43rd in the world
The UQ School of Economics is one of the largest, most influential and prestigious economics departments in Australia. Economics has a rich history at UQ. The subject was one of UQ’s foundation disciplines, with courses in the subject offered since 1912. The School of Economics was formally established in 1947. Today, UQ Economics ranks among the top 50 economics departments in the world that conduct and publish research, according to RePEc—a collaborative effort of academics in 71 countries that base their rankings on scholarly data. Its diverse research strengths span economic theory, applied economics and econometrics.
• More than 60 academic staff and 1200 enrolled students • Home to distinguished Research Fellows, Federation Fellows, ARC Professorial Fellows, a Future Fellow, a DECRA, and ARC APD
These accomplished scholars, along with a growing cohort of exceptional junior academics, have more economics honours, competitive research grants, prestigious fellowships and high-quality publications than any other Australian economics department. The challenging academic environment at the School helps attract the brightest and best students in Australia and abroad, with 1200 students enrolled in the School, including more than 450 international students from 48 countries.
In 2012, UQ Economics comprised a team of 64 academics, including 12 full-timeequivalent researchers. The School’s eminent research leaders rank among the country’s foremost researchers.
Key projects/outcomes • New econometric methodology to estimate purchasing power parities • Extending the understanding of game theory • Assessing the impact of climate change and energy consumption in Australia • Understanding market price manipulation in trade • Establishing the behavioural foundations of economic design • Understanding the implications of internal and external human migration, particularly in China and Indonesia • Studying behavioural economics, employment and income insecurity in the Australian context
• Econometric modelling of housing prices and their relationship to climate change adaption issues • Developing a new approach to estimating efficiency in Australian hospitals
Key metrics 2009-2012 Research & academic staff (FTE, 2012) Research outputs Research income Research commercialisation income
64 389 $7,131,548 $442,776
Graph 1: Research income by source (2009-2012)
18% 3% 1% 3%
ARC $5,327,661 CRC $247,923 QLD STATE RESEARCH $80,455 RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE BLOCK GRANT $177,653 OTHER $1,297,856
75%
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Graph 2: The international composition of UQ Economics staff
6%
5% 29%
6% 3%
ASIA (CENTRAL & FAR EAST) AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND EUROPE & UK AFRICA MIDDLE EAST SOUTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA
24% 27%
OUR PEOPLE UQ Economics promotes an intellectually stimulating and collegiate environment that enables academics to become international leaders in their research fields. The School comprises an innovative and eminent group of 64 economists, many of whom are research active and acknowledged leaders in their field. They include the following Professors: Paul Frijters (Health Economics), Simon Grant and John Quiggin (Decision Theory), Flavio Menezes (Auction Theory and Regulatory and Competition Economics), D.S. Prasada Rao, Chris O’Donnell and Knox Lovell (Productivity Measurement), Andrew McLennan and Rabee Tourky (Mathematical Economics), John Foster (Complex Economic Systems), and Clem Tidsdall (Environmental Economics). UQ Economics has the country’s highest concentration of distinguished research fellows in economics. In 2012, they included Australian Laureate Fellow, John Quiggin; ARC Professorial Fellows, Andrew McLennan and D.S. Prasada Rao; Future Fellow, Celine Nauges; ARC Post-doctoral Fellow, Shino Takayama; the Deputy Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Complex Systems, John Foster; and Australia’s only DECRA in economics, Juan Carbajal. Since 2009, the School has significantly increased its efforts to attract talented junior scholars from around the world. Between 2009 and 2012, 24 new academic, teaching and research staff joined the School. The majority of new staff relocated from overseas. This strategy is enabling the School to enhance both its teaching and international research profiles. It is also creating a rich cultural diversity within the School and leading to valuable international research collaborations. In 2012, the School’s staff originated from 31 countries.
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International collaborations To benefit its research program, UQ Economics cultivates international research links. The School’s economists regularly collaborate with prestigious institutions including, New York University (NYU), University of Minnesota, The University of Chicago, Harvard University, University of California Los Angeles, Oxford University, Cambridge University, Universite Paris 1, The Johns Hopkins University, The University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The School runs an ‘International Visitors’ program, which attracts senior economic researchers from prestigious institutions worldwide. Recent senior economists to visit UQ as part of this program include: • Professor Bill Greene, NYU
Bradley, Lancaster University; Robert Chambers, University of Maryland; Knox Lovell, University of Georgia; and Jie Zhang, National University of Singapore.
Nurturing the next generation UQ Economics is committed to nurturing its junior academics. In 2009, the School developed and implemented a strategy to help foster the next generation of leading economic researchers. The strategy is unique among Australian Departments and encourages junior staff to reach their full potential more quickly. As part of this strategy, the School offers low teaching load; higher base funding for new research projects; workshops in theoretical and applied economics (to present work in progress); encouragement to publish and present in top journals and at international conferences; and mentoring.
• Professor Bernard Cornet, Paris 1 • Professor Myrna Wooders, Vanderbilt University • Professor Erwin Diewert, University of British Columbia • Professor Peter Schmidt, Michigan State University • Professor Robin Sickles, Rice University • Professor Bert Balk, Erasmus University Rotterdam. In addition, the School awards Honorary Professorships to highly distinguished international academics. Recipients include Vani Borooah, University of Ulster; Steve
Selected professional affiliations and editorial appointments Within Australia as well as internationally, economists highly regard UQ Economics staff. The School’s Research Fellows hold executive positions with influential Australian and international professional bodies. Several staff also hold editorial roles with journals (see Table 1), with others serving on national and international policy bodies (see page 18).
Table 1: Selected professional affiliations and editorial appointments (2009-2012)
UQ Economics researcher
Position held
Year(s) appointed
John Quiggin D.S. Prasada Rao
Fellow Fellow
1996 1997
John Foster
Fellow
2001
Simon Grant
Fellow
2002
Fellow Fellow
2011 2003
Professional body Academy of Social Sciences in Australia
Andrew McLennan American Agricultural Economics John Quiggin Association Australian Agricultural and Chris O’Donnell Resource Economics Society John Quiggin
President
2008 2004 2010 2006 2010-15 2010-15
John Quiggin Simon Grant
Distinguished Fellow President Fellow Council Member Chair, Australasian Standing Committee Fellow Fellow
John Foster
Vice-President (Queensland)
2009-10
Flavio Menezes
Vice President (Queensland)
2011-14
John Quiggin
Distinguished Fellow
2011
Game Theory Society
Andrew McLennan
Council member
2012-17
International Association for Research in Income and Wealth International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society
D.S. Prasada Rao
Council Member
2012-18
John Foster
President
2010-12
Econometrica
Andrew McLennan
Associate Editor
2011-present
Economic Papers
Flavio Menezes
Editorial Board Member
2008
Economic Record
Flavio Menezes
Editorial Board Member
2007
Econometric Society Andrew McLennan
The Economic Society of Australia
2010 2012
Journals
Paul Frijters
Survey Editor
2010-present
Empirical Economics
Chris O’Donnell
Associate Editor
2012-present
Games and Economic Behavior
Andrew McLennan
Associate Editor
2004-present
International Journal of Economic Theory International Journal of Game Theory Journal of Mathematical Economics
Andrew McLennan
Co-editor
2004-present
Andrew McLennan
Associate Editor
2001-11
Andrew McLennan
Associate Editor
2001-11
Simon Grant
Associate Editor
1995-13
John Foster
Editorial Board Member
2011-present
Journal of Evolutionary Economics John Foster
Editorial Board Member
1990-present
John Foster
Editorial Board Member
2003-present
Chris O’Donnell
Associate Editor Co-editor
2009-12 2012-present
Journal of Bioeconomics Journal of Institutional Economics Journal of Productivity Analysis
D.S. Prasada Rao
Associate Editor
Journal of Public Economic Theory
Flavio Menezes
Associate Editor
2008-present 2007-present
Mathematical Social Sciences
Simon Grant
Co-editor-in-chief
2007-13
Review of Income and Wealth
D.S. Prasada Rao
Editorial Board Member
2000-present
Review of Political Economy
John Foster
Editorial Board Member
1989-present
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RESEARCH PROGRAMS UQ Economics is one of Australia’s leading researchintensive economics departments, with research programs in economic theory, econometrics and applied economics. Economic theory is prominent at UQ Economics. The School’s economic theory research group is the strongest in Australia and competes internationally. The group is working in a range of areas including the study of the foundations of strategic behaviour (game theory), individual behaviour under uncertainty (decision theory) and the study of markets (mechanisms of design and auction theory). Research in economic theory at UQ has farreaching implications for policy development in areas such as climate change, superannuation, taxation, competition policy and regulation. In addition, the School houses the Gambit software tools for Game Theory and related tools for computation of Nash equilibria of strategic games as part of its collaboration with the University of Texas.
such as the measurement of productivity and efficiency, international price comparisons and real income as well as how to deal with missing data. The School has a long-standing reputation for applied economics research. Its research group in this field is large and the research portfolio diverse. The group has core strengths in agricultural, environmental and resource economics, development and health economics and policy analysis. Significant projects encompass natural resource management, community, rural and international development, unemployment and employment, health, labour markets, commodity markets and financial markets, migration and the delivery of goods and services.
In both the short and long-term, the School’s applied economics research program will have ramifications for market regulation, the allocation of income and resources, community development and the provision of public services in areas such as social security, health, defence, education and urban planning.
Within the field of econometrics, UQ Economics researchers are conducting frontier methodological research in areas
Core research strengths Economic Theory:
Game Theory, and Micro and Macro Economic Theory
Econometrics:
Economic Measurement, State-space Models, Semi-parametric Models; Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Modelling income distribution and Measuring Inequality, Panel Data Analysis, Time-series Analysis, Modelling Income Prices and Treatment of Missing Data
Applied Economics:
Ageing, Agriculture, Climate Change, Consumer Behaviour, Development Economic, Economic Growth, Economic Shocks, Education, Employment, Environment, Fiscal Policy, Global Financial Crisis, Happiness, Health, Housing, Inequality, Inflation, Interest Rates, International Competition, International Development, Market Design and Regulation, Policy, Pollution, Poverty, Share trading, Taxes, Utilities and Infrastructure Development, and World Trade
Key research objectives • Produce cutting-edge research • Generate external sources of income to fund research • Graduate highly competent research higher degree students
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EARLY CAREER RESEARCHER PROFILE: Dr Idione Meneghel
The quality of game theory researchers at the UQ School of Economics attracted Dr Idione Meneghel. After completing a PhD at the University of Rochester in the United States, Dr Meneghel commenced with UQ in July 2011. Dr Meneghel immediately began collaborating with UQ Economics Professor Rabee Tourky on a research program involving existence of equilibrium in games with incomplete information.
“I’ve just finished a project on existence of equilibrium for games with complete information and discontinuous payoffs and now I’ve moved to games with incomplete information. “I’m also teaching the first half of the microeconomics sequence for Honours students and a postgraduate game theory course for the UQ Business School. These are challenging courses both for the lecturer and the students.” Dr Meneghel holds a BA Economics from Universidade de São Paulo in Brazil. Her work on discontinuous payoffs was published in March 2013 in the prestigious journal, Econometrica.
“The existence of equilibrium in games has been the main focus of my research for the past couple of years, including my PhD, so it’s exciting to be part of a research group that not only supports but also challenges me in this field.
FUNDING
PUBLICATIONS
UQ Economics competes strongly for competitive government research grants and industry contracts.
Academics, postdoctoral fellows and postgraduate students from the UQ School of Economics publish extensively. In the four-year period from 2009, their research outputs in books, book chapters, conference papers and journal articles totalled 389.
Between 2009 and 2012 the School received more than AU$7.1 million in research funding. In this period, the School sourced close to 75 per cent of its research funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), which manages the Australian federal government’s National Competitive Grants Program. These included Australian Professorial Fellowships, an Australian Federation Fellowship, a Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, Discovery Projects, Future Fellowships and Linkage Projects (collaborations with industry). The ARC’s Discovery Projects grants program is the foremost funding source for basic and applied research in Australian economic research. Of the AU$30.2 million awarded in ARC Discovery Project grants for economics between 2009 and 2012, UQ Economics was awarded almost 10 per cent (AU$2.8 million). In 2012, the School secured 15 per cent of the total Discovery Project funding for economics research in Australia. The School was most successful in winning grants for economic theory. Between 2009 and 2012, the Australian government awarded only eight ARC Discovery Project grants for Economic Theory projects. UQ Economics secured three of these grants, which accounted for 37 per cent (AU$696,515) of the total funding.
The majority of the research output was journal articles. In total, more than 160 journals published 288 journal articles by UQ Economics researchers. These included important journals such as: • Econometrica • Economic Theory • Journal of Economic Theory
• Journal of Monetary Economics • The Economic Journal • The Review of Economics and Statistics • Review of Economic Studies. Selected publication awards: • 2011 European Review of Agricultural Economics Outstanding Journal Article Award • 2010 European Association of Agricultural Economists Quality of Research Discovery Award • 2010 SCOR/IDEI Award for the best article published in the Geneva Risk and Insurance Review
• Journal of Health Economics • Games and Economic Behaviour • Journal of Applied Econometrics • Journal of Econometrics • Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
Table 2: Research outputs by type (2009-2012) Research output type Journal article Book Book chapter Conference paper Total
Number 288 9 58 34 389
Percentage (%) 74 2.3 15 8.7
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12th Society of the Advancement of Economic Theory Conference
CONFERENCES & WORKSHOPS UQ Economics regularly holds workshops and seminars with guests attending from the Asia-Pacific region. In 2012, the School hosted two significant international conferences—the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET) and the International Schumpeter Society.
12th Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory Conference The School hosted the 12th SAET conference in July 2012. Some of the world’s most highly respected theoretical economists attended the conference. Timothy Kehoe (University of Minnesota), Alvin Roth (Harvard University: Recipient of the 2012 Nobel Prize) and Stephen Morris (Princeton University) delivered the plenary sessions.
2012 International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society With UQ Economist Professor John Foster President of the International Schumpeter Society, the School played host to the Society’s 2012 conference. This was the first time the Schumpeter conference convened in Australia. Eminent economists gathered to discuss the core theme: the evolution of economic systems through innovation, entrepreneurship and competitive processes.
2012 Association for Public Economic Theory Workshop
2011 PhD Conference in Economics and Business
The Association for Public Economic Theory (APET) and UQ Economics co-hosted a special APET workshop on public-private partnerships (PPPs). Keynote speakers included Eduardo Engle (Yale University) and David Martimort (Paris School of Economics).
UQ Economics hosted the 25th annual Australian PhD Conference in Economics and Business. This was the first time the School has hosted the conference. The conference was a joint venture between the School and the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the Australian National University (ANU), the Economic Policy Research Centre and the University of Western Australia (UWA). These conferences aim to provide doctoral students with an assessment of their presentational skills and a constructive critique of their research by a group of peers and senior academics.
According to Head of UQ’s Economics School Professor Menezes, the topic of the workshop was very relevant with PPPs becoming an increasingly popular tool for development but with mixed results. “PPPs reached nearly $1.2 trillion globally in 2006. However, around 50 per cent of PPPs never reach the financing stage and of those that do, about half are renegotiated,” said Professor Menezes.
The Carbon Tax: Early Experience and Future Prospects (2012) The UQ Economics Risk and Sustainable Management Group (RSMG) hosted this climate change workshop, which attracted notable experts, including Australian economist Professor Ross Garnaut. RSMG Director, Professor John Quiggin said, “The general conclusion from the workshop was that the Australian government’s implementation of the carbon price had gone smoothly in most respects.” The RSMG will release a book based on the proceedings in 2013.
2012 International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society
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6th Workshop on Macroeconomic Dynamics The School of Economics hosted the sixth Workshop on Macroeconomic Dynamics (WMD) in July 2011. WMD is a collective effort of Australasian researchers working on theoretical and/or empirical economic dynamics with foundations in economic theory.
20th Colin Clark Memorial Lecture and Symposium Established in 1991, the Colin Clark Memorial Lecture recognises the pioneering contribution to economics made by Colin Clark. In 2010, UQ Economics held the 20th Colin Clark Memorial Lecture and Symposium to celebrate the 20th year of the Colin Clark memorial and UQ’s centenary. The topic of the Symposium was Economic Measurement in the 21st Century. Keynote speakers included Professor Paul Schreyer, Deputy Chief Statistician at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); Professors Erwin Diewert and Warwick McKibbon from ANU; and Professor Bart Van Ark from the Royal University of Groningen and the Conference Board (New York, USA).
RESEARCH CENTRES AND GROUPS The School of Economics hosts one research centre and three research groups. These provide a framework for team-based discovery and collaboration. Members of these groups include researchers from other disciplines within and external to UQ.
CENTRE FOR EFFICIENCY AND PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS (CEPA)
Directed by Professor Chris O’Donnell, CEPA provides a focal point for research, consultancy and training in efficiency and productivity analysis in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region.
CEPA’s theoretical and applied research includes firm level, industry level, and international comparisons in both private and government sectors. RePEc places the centre in the top 10 economic research groups in Australia. CEPA’s research activities include developing and commercialising statistical software package to measure productivity and efficiency. Used globally, these products include four software packages that are available to the public free-of-charge. Annually, the centre runs short-training courses and workshops for graduate students, researchers, economists, statisticians and consultants from private and public sector organisations. www.uq.edu.au/economics/cepa
Selected research highlights: > Creating a new website to disseminate international comparisons data on purchasing power parities and real incomes covering 141 countries and the years 1971 to 2005 (the group launched the UQICD website in 2012 as a public interface to download the data) http://uqicd.economics.uq.edu.au > Establishing the empirical possibility of analysing production under uncertainty when information is incomplete and without regard to the nature of producer risk preferences—applying the methodology to data on OECD agriculture, US agriculture, Finnish agriculture, Queensland hospitals and Brazilian water utilities > Developing and commercialising the DPIN™ software for decomposing productivity index numbers > Understanding the impact of a multi-tier government structure and the fiscal decentralisation on long-term economic performance in Australia
ENERGY ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT GROUP (EEMG) Nationally, EEMG is foremost in studying the economics of renewable energy and related environmental issues. The group focuses its research on renewable energy, such as solar and wind; climate change; energy generation and transmission; and the impacts of different kinds of carbon mitigation policies. Sophisticated modelling platforms, unique to Australia, underpin EEMG’s research on the impact of climate change policies on the Australian electricity market.
EEMG also engages in extensive collaboration with industry as well as providing consultancy services to government departments, private sector companies and international organisations. The internationally renowned Professor John Foster is the EEMG Director. According to RePEc, the group ranks in the top 25 economic research groups in Australia. www.uq.edu.au/eemg
Selected research highlights: > Release of the 2011 report – Delivering a competitive Australian power system. Part 1: Australia’s global position – in which the group looks at Australia’s current global position and predicts its future competitiveness > Modelling the impacts of carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy, including accurately predicting rises in electricity prices (see case study on page 21) > Providing a qualified impact of distributed energy in the Australian energy sector, including the finding that Australia could achieve a welfare gain of around $130 billion through to 2050 > Modelling current issues in electricity markets
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DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS GROUP
This Group includes a diverse range of research interests, united by a focus on improving the economies of developing countries. Research themes include health, economic growth, agriculture, environment, natural resources and sustainability, poverty, migration, and the knowledge economy. Selected research highlights: > Understanding the determinants, motives and channels of Pacific Island workers’ remittances (money sent to family members) from Australia as well as explaining policy implications > Contributing important inputs into Australian and international policy debates on international migration and migration policy
RISK AND SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT GROUP (RSMG)
Led by Australian Laureate Fellow, Professor John Quiggin, RSMG is examining the problems of sustainably managing environmental resources.
Selected research highlights: > Released the book Water Policy Reform: Lessons in Sustainability from the Murray–Darling Basin (2012)
RSMG has research programs on climate change adaption and mitigation; the role of risk and uncertainty; and the economic and social policy issues facing Australia.
> Illustrated the importance of valuing future generations as highly as currently living generations in policy formulation (2012)
A key research focus is the management of Australia’s largest waterway, the Murray–Darling Basin.
> Appointed to the Murray–Darling Basin Authority (MDBA): Economic Modelling and Costs Analysis Technical Group (2011) and actively engaging in policy debate
RSMG sits in the top 13 economic research groups in Australia when ranked by RePEc. www.uq.edu.au/rsmg
> Provided two reports on the progress of the National Water Commission (2011)
> Analysis of Murray–Darling Basin Plan undertaken for MDBA (2010)
> Understanding the social and economic impact of rural-urban migration in China and Indonesia > Showing that greater media coverage increases aid disbursement for anti-HIV campaigns in African countries
EARLY CAREER RESEARCHER PROFILE: Dr Keiichi Kawai
With an economics degree from Kyoto University in Japan and a PhD from Northwestern University, Dr Keiichi Kawai chose UQ for its vibrant, collegial, and supportive research environment. Dr Kawai, who is principally interested in applied microeconomics, said he was hard-pressed to find such a strong theory group elsewhere.
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“In the field of applied economic theory, UQ Economics has five world-renowned professors, two associate professors and a fair number of junior people who joined before I did.” Dr Kawai is especially interested in applying various economic theories to study the decisions of individuals and their effects on economic and social phenomena, and to shed new light on the mechanism behind them. He is studying two types of market inefficiency associated with securitisation— a financial technology that has been perceived as one of many reasons behind the global financial crisis.
EARLY CAREER RESEARCHER PROFILE: Murray–Darling River
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MURRAY–DARLING BASIN UQ Economics Risk and Sustainable Management Group (RSMG) played a key role assessing the impact of climate change on the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB). The group was also pivotal in contributing to policy for its sustainable management. A central focus of the Group’s simulation model of land and water allocation in the Basin. Between 2009 and 2012, the RSMG prepared for and responded to the Murray–Darling Basin Authority’s draft Basin Plan. MDB is an ecological and economically fragile region covering more than 1 million square kilometres. It supplies the water needs of 2.7 million Australians. The basin supports 40 per cent of the nation’s total gross value of agricultural production. In 2010, RSMG released a report to the Authority on its research—Water supply variability and sustainable diversion limits: Issues to consider in developing the MDB.
POSITIVE THINKING ABOUT FUTURE HEALTH LINKED TO HAPPINESS Analysing a sample of 10,000 Australians taken over a nine-year period, UQ Economics’ Professor Paul Frijters showed that people systematically over-estimate how rosy the future should be and this is crucial for their wellbeing. “It turns out that a person’s expected future health has about one sixth the effect on their current happiness as their actual current health,” Prof Frijters said.
Dr Priscilla Man
Game theorist, Dr Priscilla Man accepted a position at the UQ School of Economics in 2010 after graduating with a PhD from the University of Chicago. Dr Man said she was attracted to UQ by its well-established group of economic theorists. “The theory group has since grown at UQ Economics and it’s even more exciting now then when I first started. The collaborative environment makes it a good place to be, and it’s led me to delve into new research areas.” In addition to continuing her research into stronger solutions for the Nash equilibrium, since starting at UQ Economics, Dr Man began working on social choice with Dr Shino Takayama. Curious about the Impossibility Theorem and the desirable properties involved in the decision-making processes, the pair developed a new proof that unifies known impossibility theorems, including Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, the Muller-Satterthwaite Theorem and the impossibility theorem under strategic candidacy. (The journal Economic Theory accepted their paper on this work for publication in 2013.) Dr Man is also collaborating with UQ Economics researcher, Dr Marco Faravelli, on ‘mandate and paternalism’ to support their theory of large elections.
“Any difference between expectations of health and the health that eventuated had little effect,” he said.
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“We solved the problem of creating analytically sound PPPs for income.” Associate Professor Alicia N. Rambaldi
NEW METHODOLOGY FOR COMPILING PURCHASING POWER PARITIES OF CURRENCIES AND REAL INCOMES ACROSS COUNTRIES AND OVER TIME Researchers: Professor D.S. Prasada Rao, Associate Professor Alicia N. Rambaldi and Dr Howard Doran Comparing real income and standards of living across countries and over time is now possible with a new econometric methodology to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) developed by Professor D.S. Prasada Rao, Associate Professor Alicia N. Rambaldi and Dr Howard Doran, from The UQ School of Economics. PPPs are similar to exchange rates for converting national income aggregates into a common currency unit while accounting for price level differences between countries. They are used widely to compare data between countries for gross domestic product (GDP), private and government consumption and growth fixed capital formation. The principal source of information on PPPs is the International Comparison Program (ICP), which conducts price surveys among participating countries about every five years. According to Professor Rao, extrapolations of the surveys for more than 150 countries in the period from 1950-2009 were calculated and published by a project known as the Penn World Tables along with extrapolations from other international agencies such as the OECD and the World Bank.
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“Unfortunately the Penn World Table calculations are not based on econometrically sound techniques and tend to be anchored on comparisons from a single survey,” he said.
Associate Professor Rambaldi said their work had national and global significance.
Funded by Australian Research Council Discovery Project grants, Professor Rao, Associate Professor Rambaldi and Dr Doran developed an econometric approach to generate optimal predictions of PPPs for any country at any time point.
“We solved the problem of creating analytically sound PPPs for income, she said.
Their state-space approach uses Kalman filtering techniques and information from the ICP surveys and data on price movements over time from the national accounts of each country. As part of the project, they established analytical properties for the predicted PPPs; produced the computing code to obtain the predictions; and developed a user-friendly interface for web-based dissemination of the results through a dedicated website named UQICD—University of Queensland International Comparisons Database (http://uqicd.economics.uq.edu.au). The group released the first generation of the UQICD in 2011. They expect to release the second generation of the table covering 181 countries for the period 1970-2010, in 2013.
“It’s exciting,” said Associate Professor Rambaldi.
“We’re now progressing with the method to obtain purchasing power parities for consumption, investment and government expenditures.” The researchers have presented their results to the World Bank and at seminars and major international conferences. They have published in a top tier journal and a book chapter as well as presenting at the 2010 World Congress of the Econometric Society and the 2011 and 2013 Ottawa Group Meetings of Price Statistics.
“In reality, there are very few applications simple enough that practical algorithms can be used to find the Nash equilibria. This was suspected, but I’ve confirmed and explained why this is the case— completing the picture.” Professor Andrew McLennan
EXPLAINING THE COMPUTATIONAL COMPLEXITY OF THE NASH EQUILIBRIUM CONCEPT Researchers: Professor Andrew McLennan and Professor Rabee Tourky UQ Economics researchers are completing our knowledge of the Nash equilibria.
“This means that for practical purposes, you have to choose simple scenarios or games in which to use the Nash equilibrium concept to predict outcomes or strategies,” he said.
The Nash equilibrium is one of the most well known game theory solutions used by economists to understand and predict the outcomes from social interactions that are modelled as games.
“For instance, in complicated games such as military battles, the notion of Nash equilibria is not very useful because there are too many people involved and too many computations to predict the outcome.
Nash equilibria are the configurations of strategies players employ, which have the property that for each individual any change in strategy is unbeneficial, taking the strategies of others as given. That is, no single player can benefit from changing his or her strategy unless some other players also change their strategies.
“In reality, there are very few applications simple enough that practical algorithms can be used to find the Nash equilibria. This was suspected, but I’ve confirmed and explained why this is the case—completing the picture.”
Professor Andrew McLennan from the UQ School of Economics has been studying the Nash equilibrium concept for more than 30 years, “pulling back the frontier”. More recently, his focus has been the computational complexity of finding the Nash equilibria. “My specific results have been to find that there are a lot of Nash equilibria; both the maximum number and the average number can be quite large, and these numbers grow exponentially with the number of strategies,” said Professor McLennan.
Professor McLennan’s break-through work has applications for software developers and experimental economists. Another high profile UQ Economics researcher working on the Nash equilibria is Professor Rabee Tourky. In 2011, the prestigious journal Econometrica published work by Professor Tourky and Professor McLennan, along with Paulo Klinger Monteiro, on a pure Nash equilibrium existence theorem for games with discontinuous payoffs.
Professor Andrew McLennan
Their theorem applies to games whose hypotheses were weaker than those in the theorem of Reny (developed in 1999). Significantly, the theorem opens up new methods of modelling and provides a briefer proof and strengthened Reny’s existence theory. “Our findings raise interesting possibilities concerning potential applications to economic geography, or how economic activity is distributed in an area,” said Professor Tourky.
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RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN CHINA AND INDONESIA Researcher: Professor Paul Frijters In an unprecedented level of social upheaval, China and Indonesia are transforming from largely rural-based to urban-based societies. Over the course of the next two decades an estimated two thirds of the rural labour force will migrate to urban areas. UQ socio-economist Professor Frijters is one of six Australian economists, and dozens of international academics, assessing the rural-urban migration in China and Indonesia. Their work is part of an AU$2.15 million ARC Linkage grant (2006-2011) with the Australian international development agency, AusAID, and the People’s Republic of China Ministry of Labor and Social Security.
The research team has been surveying the populations and analysing the data to answer questions about the migration’s impact on income mobility, poverty alleviation, education, health and nutrition of migrant children, and the assimilation of migrant workers into the city. Edward Elgar Publishing UK published their initial work in 2010 in a book called “The Great Migration”. According to Professor Frijters, the migration does not appear to be causing internal social unrest as was first feared.
“The rural migrants weren’t unhappy nor were they organising resistance against the government. It’s part of the normal development of an economy. It’s not necessarily pretty or fair, but it’s unlikely to lead to major political problems.” The project was one of nine research topics and 50 projects Professor Frijters worked on during 2009 and 2012, including four ARC grants and a book— An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups, and Networks published in 2013 by Cambridge University Press.
“The rural-urban migration occurring in China and Indonesia is the biggest people migration in history, and while we found that it wasn’t sustainable we also showed that it wasn’t a huge cause for alarm,” he said.
“The rural-urban migration occurring in China and Indonesia is the biggest people migration in history, and while we found that it wasn’t sustainable we also showed that it wasn’t a huge cause for alarm.” Professor Paul Frijters
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“We’re going back to basics to focus on different types of bounded rationality and we can envision numerous applications of the theory, including describing how people might form prejudices; more accurate modelling for policy makers; and better resource management.” Associate Professor Jeffrey Kline
UQ ECONOMISTS TAKE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO REFORMULATE GAME THEORY Researchers: Professor Simon Grant, Associate Professor Jeffrey Kline, Professor Flavio Menezes and Professor John Quiggin In a new research project that could have vast implications for economics and game theory, UQ economists are developing a new framework for understanding how people make decisions. Led by Professor Simon Grant – in collaboration with Associate Professor Jeffrey Kline, Professor Flavio Menezes and Professor John Quiggin – the research team is developing models of bounded rationality in game and decision theory to better capture the various ways individuals learn and adapt to the complexities of their social interactions. Bounded rationality was developed by Herbert Simon in 1957 to account for assumptions made by game theorists about ‘players’ in a game being not only rational but also having unlimited knowledge (knowing the rules) and computational ability.
Professor Simon Grant
In reality, individuals are ‘bounded’ by their limited knowledge and memory and they do not always behave rationally. However, despite decades of research, no one has fully addressed the discrepancies between ‘fully bounded’ and ‘fully rational’ players. According to Professor Grant, it is hard to overstate the significance of the issues addressed in this project and the potential for innovation. “Game theory and decision theory are central tools of modern economics but fundamental issues regarding awareness, discovery, inductive learning and bounded rationality remain unresolved,” he said. “A theoretical framework, such as we hope to develop, that encompasses all these issues could transform economics.” The team members are approaching the issues of awareness, discovery, inductive learning and bounded rationality with new techniques developed by the authors, including game theory, games without rules, and inductive reasoning about unawareness.
Associate Professor Jeffrey Kline
They are looking to reformulate game theory from the perspective of individuals who do not know rules and learn as they play games. That is, looking at how individuals with limited information and understanding of their environment learn and adapt to the complexities of their social interactions. Associate Professor Kline explained, “This is exploratory research into fundamental questions about the nature of game theory and decision theory that will be integrated into a common framework.” “We’re going back to basics to focus on different types of bounded rationality and we can envision numerous applications of the theory, including describing how people might form prejudices, more accurate modelling for policy makers, and better resource management.” The research team won an Australian Research Council grant in 2011, running from 2012 to 2014, to undertake this project.
Professor Flavio Menezes
Professor John Quiggin
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EXTERNAL ENGAGEMENT Industry and government widely access the expertise at UQ Economics. The School’s researchers have strong links with public and private sector organisations and regularly work with all levels of Australian government. The School also has ongoing relationships with international development agencies including the World Bank, United Nations, World Health Organisation, International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank. Between 2009 and 2012, UQ researchers worked on numerous consultancy projects—actively augmenting Australian policy development in resource sustainability, taxation, infrastructure regulation, climate change, and innovation. Both Professor John Quiggin and Professor Flavio Menezes provided advice to the Henry Review of Taxation, while Menezes was part of a selective group participating in the National Tax Forum. The School’s researchers also served on national and international policy bodies. These included the Academic Consultative Committee of the Secretary of the Commonwealth Treasury (John Foster), the Board of the Queensland Competition Authority (Professor John Quiggin), the Queensland Treasury Economic Model Advisory Committee (Professor John Mangan), and the Technical Advisory Group for the International Comparison Program at the World Bank (Professor D.S. Prasada Rao). Within the School, three key research groups conduct the majority of contract research projects. These groups are the Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG), the Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (CEPA) and the Risk and Sustainable Management Group (RSMG).
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EEMG EEMG’s expertise is particularly in demand following the escalation in sustainable resource use and Australia’s move to a carbon price. This group has been at the forefront of modelling the implications of Australia’s carbon price as well as assessing proposed changes to the energy sector. www.uq.edu.au/eemg Key projects: > Investigating the impact of wind generators on the Australian electricity industry, partners include, AGL Energy Limited, Clean Energy Council, Infigen Energy, TRUenergy Pty Ltd, Tasmania Hydro and Vestas International Wind Technology (2011-2014) > Consulting with power generation companies as part of the National Climate Change Adaption Research Facility (NCCARF) funded “Analysis of institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change” (2011-2013) > Market and economic modelling of the impacts of distributed generation and local co-operating agent based demand side management – Intelligent Grid Cluster (iGrid)—a research collaboration with CSIRO (2008-2011) > In partnership with AGL Energy Limited, assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy (2008-2011)
CEPA CEPA regularly provides expert advice to Australian government departments and organisations. These include the Productivity Commission, the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA), New South Wales Treasury, the Independent Pricing Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) and the Australian Government Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. Between 2009 and 2012, CEPA was involved in several Australian and international consultancy projects. Led by Professor Chris O’Donnell, the group’s largest consulting projects were in the area of aged care and hospital efficiency for state and federal government departments and agencies. While the majority of results are confidential, members of the group did publish related work on estimating an econometric methodology (Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2012). They developed the methodology to estimate efficient prices and measures of performance in Queensland hospitals for individual hospital services provided in different locations at different points in time. The work will help inform the federal government’s hospital reform agenda. CEPA also worked with clients in industry, government and education to run several seminars, short courses and workshops (in Australia, Spain and Malaysia) on efficiency and productivity methods and applications. www.uq.edu.au/economics/cepa
RSMG Key projects: > In partnership with CSIRO, established the productivity and efficiency of farms in the Northern Grains region (2011) > Analysed the efficiency and productivity in aged care homes as well as the efficiency analysis of public hospital acute admitted services for the DoHA (2011) > On behalf of the AECgroup Pty Ltd for South East Queensland Council of Mayors, CEPA looked at the market and financial trends in medium density residential development in the region (2011) > Working with the Local Government Association of Queensland, CEPA conducted econometric analysis of South East Queensland housing Prices (2010) > CEPA developed methodologies for measuring hospital efficiency for the NSW Treasury (2010). > Lead by CEPA member, Professor D.S. Prasada Rao, the group engaged with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank on the International Comparison Program (ICP)
RSMG provides integral research and advice to governments and industry regarding resource management and climate change. The group has worked with the Garnaut Climate Change Review, the South Australian Government and the Murray– Darling Basin Authority (MDBA). Indirectly, it contributed to the National Water Authority’s examination of the $3.1 billion water buyback strategy, while its model of irrigated agriculture in the Basin provides vital input to public policy and economic analysis. A prominent area of external engagement for the group is applying new developments in economic theory to the design, modelling and evaluation of policies designed to promote ecologically, economically, and socially sustainable reform of Australia’s largest river system, the Murray–Darling Basin.
Key projects: > Appointed to the MDBA Economic Modelling and Costs Analysis Technical Group (2011) > Provided further commissioned work for MDBA and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on water variability impacts on the Murray–Darling Basin Plan (2011) > Provided two reports on the progress of the National Water Commission (2011) > Analysis of Murray–Darling Basin Plan undertaken for MDBA (2010) > Provided expert advice to the Government of South Australia for its High Court Challenge on water trade rules in Victoria (2009)
www.uq.edu.au/rsmg
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PAVING THE WAY FOR WIND-GENERATED POWER
UQ Economics is leading an interdisciplinary project to help phase-in a significant increase in wind-generated power in Australia.
EARLY CAREER RESEARCHER PROFILE:
Dr Patrick O’Callaghan UQ Economics recruited Dr Patrick O’Callaghan from the University of Warwick for a three-year project studying unawareness in the theory of decisionmaking and games (see page 17). Dr O’Callaghan, who specialises in decision theory, information theory and mathematical economics, said the UQ School of Economics appealed to him because of the people. “Not only did the project look very exciting, but John Quiggin, Simon Grant, Flavio Menezes and Jeff Kline are senior experts in my field who have similar research interests. “Through my work at UQ, I’m interested in obtaining the behavioural and falsifiable conditions on the preferences of economic agents that give rise to the mathematical models commonly used in economics and finance.” At the wider academic level, Dr O’Callaghan’s research has the potential to bridge the gap between the new and flourishing field of neuroscience and the traditional and deep literature on economics. It also has policy implications: more realistic economic behaviour models should improve our understanding of how markets work.
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In the first intensive, academic-level research and inquiry project of its kind in Australia, the School’s Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) is working with seven industry partners as part of an ARC Linkage project. The team is investigating the most economical and effective way to deliver a stable and affordable expansion in windgenerated electricity in Australia, while maintaining power grid stability and keeping wholesale electricity prices competitive. According to the EEMG Director Professor John Foster, the group will look at the costs associated with the variability, unpredictability and remote locations of Australia’s wind resources and the economic impact of wind turbines being located in remote locations.
“Through this project, we’ll be looking at critical issues hampering the uptake of wind power, such as the power grid’s capability to cope with a volatile supply source, the cost effectiveness of different grid modifications and power storage solutions and the optimal placement of wind farms. “We’ll also be assessing impact on prices in the national electricity market as well as the impacts of carbon pricing and the Largescale Renewable Energy Target. “It’s very likely that changes will need to be made to the design and operation of Australia’s power system and power markets to accommodate an increase in wind-generated electricity and our research should contribute significantly to finding the best solutions to the important problems that the industry has to deal with.”
“Through this project, we’ll be looking at critical issues hampering the uptake of wind power, such as the power grid’s capability to cope with a volatile supply source, the cost effectiveness of different grid modifications and power storage solutions and the optimal placement of wind farms.” Professor John Foster
ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF PROPOSED CARBON TRADING AND TAX SCHEMES ON THE AUSTRALIAN ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY AND THE OVERALL ECONOMY Researcher: Professor John Foster Professor John Foster and his research group at the UQ School of Economics provided the most accurate estimates of the carbon price impact on retail electricity prices and on the pattern of electricity generation in Australia. Funded by an ARC Linkage Grant, the group worked in collaboration with Australian energy provider, AGL Energy Limited. The study was the first of its kind in Australia to employ a state-of-the-art agent-based modelling methodology to assess the impact of different carbon abatement policies on the Australian electricity industry and the country’s economy. Professor Foster said the group modelled the National Electricity Market as a complex system and used supercomputing power to simulate the behaviour of traders and generators operating in it. “The modelling produced very realistic simulations of economic behaviour and tracked the effects of different carbon abatement policies, contrasting markedly with other popular modelling approaches that rely on sets of unrealistic assumptions that are included to make the modelling manageable,” he said.
“The findings allow us to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an environmentally sustainable set of economic policy instruments that can maintain our enviable standard of living well into the future.” Through the project, the researchers looked to understand the medium and long-term impacts of different carbon abatement policies on electricity supply and demand as well as inferring wider impacts on the economy.
The estimate of an average 8.9 per cent increase for retail electricity prices in the five eastern states, due to the carbon price, was below the 10 per cent rise predicted by Treasury and close to the 8.8 per cent that has eventuated. This was contrary to claims by many commentators that Federal Treasury had underestimated the impact of the carbon price on household budgets. To access the research output from this project, visit http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/ carbon-linkage
A key finding from the study was that the burden of the carbon price (introduced in 2012) would vary considerably, depending on a household’s location. (The actual price rises have turned out to be very close to the outcomes predicted from the project.) The prediction that Tasmanians, with a relatively low carbon footprint, were set to gain significantly from the carbon price once tax and pension changes are factoredin was found to be correct, as was the prediction that Queenslanders – heavily dependent on coal to generate electricity – would wear the biggest increase in power prices.
“The findings allow us to give the best advice possible to policymakers...” Professor John Foster
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RESEARCH TRAINING UQ Economics provides rigorous research training for students through its flagship Honours and research higher degree programs. HONOURS PROGRAM The School’s Honours program provides a clear pathway into research for highachieving undergraduate students. This stimulating and challenging program equips students with applied and analytical skills. It also enhances their knowledge of the economic research frontier. Through the program, the School introduces students to economic research methods. All Honours students are required to complete a research project conducted under supervision. The high quality of these projects means that top ranking economics journals frequently accept UQ Economics students’ research for publication. Between 2009 and 2012, 68 students graduated from the Honours program. The median grade for each year was a Grade Point Average (GPA) of 7 (equivalent to a High Distinction or an Honours I). Of these graduates, 23 received UQ University Medals. The program is an excellent basis for entry into PhD programs and several of the School’s Honours graduates are studying on full scholarships at leading universities such as Oxford University, Harvard University, the University of Michigan, New York University, Princeton University, Northwestern University, and the University of California - San Diego.
PHD AND RESEARCH MASTERS PROGRAMS > Doctorate of Philosophy (PhD) > Masters of Philosophy (MPhil) Each year, UQ Economics accepts a limited number of entrants into its rigorous and challenging Research Higher Degree (RHD) programs. Through these postgraduate programs, the School aims to provide students with advanced training to prepare them for successful careers in business, government and academia. All RHD students must make an original contribution in the field of economics, which is suitable for publication as a book or in well-ranked journals. The School expects only a slightly less innovative contribution from MPhil graduates. There were 41 RHD students enrolled in the School at the end of 2012. Between 2009 and 2012, 28 new RHD students commenced at UQ Economics (27 enrolling in the PhD program and one in the MPhil). In total, the School Conferred 22 PhDs and one MPhil during this period. Of these postgraduates, 68 per cent (15) are in lecturing or research positions with universities in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and Africa. A further 32 per cent (7) are working as consultants or advisors in energy, planning and policy in Australia, Asia and South America.
For more information visit: www.uq.edu.au/economics/phd-and-research-masters-programs
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Where UQ Economics PhD and MPhil graduates are employed (2009-2012) Year PhD or MPhil conferred
Name
Employment
2012
Thuto Feger
Lectureship at Botswana University
Adeline Ofori-Bah
Agricultural economics consultant, Ghana, for Louisiana State University
David Rowell
Research Fellow, Centre for Applied Health Economics, Griffith Health Institute
Hidayat Amir
Researcher at the Fiscal Policy Office, Indonesian Government
Merehau Mervin
Research Fellow Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee, Griffith University
Vincent Hoang
Lectureship at Queensland University of Technology
Sriram Shankar
Lectureship at University of Western Sydney
Abby Kamalakanthan
Senior Consultant at PricewaterhouseCoopers
Fernando Camacho
Infrastructure Economist - Head of Department Brazilian Development Bank
See Kok Fong
Lectureship at the National University of Malaysia
Barry Golding
Director of Promethean Planning Pty Ltd and a consultant to industry and government
Hieu Phan Sy
Deputy head, Analysis and Forecast Division, Centre for Informatics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development, Vietnam
Suthin Wianwiwat
Lectureship at Khon Kaen University, Thailand
Andrew Hodge
Lectureship at UQ School of Population Health
David Smorfitt
Senior Lecturer in Accounting and Finance in the School of Business, James Cook University
Nicholas Rhode
Senior Lectureship at Griffith University
Kim Nguyen
Senior Research Fellow, Griffith University
Paul Bell
Research Officer, UQ School of Economics
Leonora Risse
Senior Research Economist, Inquiry and Research Division, Productivity Commission, Melbourne
Malebogo Bakwena
Lectureship, University of Botswana
Mary Hedges
Senior Research Fellow, University of Auckland
Donald Burtt (MPhil)
PhD student, Planning and Environmental Management UQ School of Geography Energy
Ti Ching Peng
Research Fellow with The Centre for Regional Innovation and Competitiveness
2011
2010
2009
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SELECTED GRANTS AND FELLOWSHIPS (Current for 2012 or awarded between 2009 and 2012) ARC FELLOWSHIPS Professor John Quiggin
Australian Laureate Fellow (2012–2017) Black swans and unknown unknowns: financial markets and their interaction with the macroeconomy in the presence of unanticipated contingencies ARC Federation Fellow (2007-2012) Climate change: adaptation and resilience in the face of uncertainty
Professor Andrew McLennan
ARC Professorial Fellow (2007-2011) ‘Fixed-points’: extending and deepening our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory
Professor D.S. Prasada Rao
ARC Professorial Fellow (2009-2013) Construction of consistent panels of Real Gross Domestic Product and its components at current and constant prices
Professor Rohan Pitchford*
ARC Professorial Fellow (2009-2011) Balancing the risk of harm with productivity in the mercurial firm: economic theory and applications to Australian policy
Dr Shino Takayama
ARC Postdoctoral Fellow (2010-2012) Information and market price manipulation in trade
Dr Celine Nauges
ARC Future Fellow (2011-2015) Informing economic policies to enhance an efficient and sustainable use of water resources in a context of high uncertainty on future climate
Dr. Juan C. Carbajal**
ARC Discovery Early Career Research Award Fellowship (2012-2014) Behavioural foundations of economic design for an uncertain world
* Professor Pitchford moved from UQ to the Australian National University in April 2011. ** Dr Carbajal took up a position with the University of New South Wales in July 2013.
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ARC Discovery Grants Duration
Project Title
UQ Chief Investigator(s)
Total ($)
2007-13
Fixed points: extending and deepening our understanding of mathematical and computational aspects of game theory. How does the Structure of Government, in Particular the Extent of Fiscal Decentralisation, Affect Long Term Economic Performance in Australia? Lifelong Education and Health Investment: Implications for Life Expectancy, Economic Growth and Public Policy Construction of consistent panels of Real Gross Domestic Product and its components at current and constant prices An economic analysis of the effect of networks on jobs and mental health in China: patterns, consequences and policy implications Information and market price manipulation in trade
Prof. Andrew McLennan
675,000
A/Prof. Philip Bodman Prof. Harry Campbell
162,426
Dr. KK Tang
235,272
Prof. D.S. Prasada Rao A/Prof. Alicia Rambaldi Prof. Paul Frijters
596,430
2008-10
2008-10 2009-13 2009-11 2009-11 2010-12 2010-12
2010-12 2010-12 2011-13 2012-14
2012-15 2012-14 2012-14 2012-14
Determinants, Motives and Channels of Pacific Island Workers’ Remittances from Australia A study of consumers’ competence when choosing between complex mobile phone contracts and the regulatory implications of their coping strategies Should rational individuals be optimistic? Theory, survey evidence, experimental evidence and policy implications Econometric Estimation and Analysis of Country, Regional and Global Income Distributions Inductive game theory: experiential knowledge, interactions, and limited inferences in social contexts Games and decisions with bounded rationality: Theory and economic implications
Estimation of the continuous piecewise linear model and macroeconomic applications Econometric modelling of housing prices and their relationship to climate adaptation issues Status seeking and economic behaviour Income insecurity in Australia: Who is feeling the pinch and why?
Dr. Shino Takayama Prof. Rabee Tourky A/Prof. Richard Brown Dr. Gareth Leeves A/Prof. Peter Earl Dr. Lana Friesen
78,420 270,000 187,000 349,000
Prof. Paul Frijters
156,335
Prof. D.S. Prasada Rao
13,200
A/Prof. Jeffrey Kline
75,000
Prof. Simon Grant A/Prof. Jeffrey Kline Prof. Flavio Menezes Prof. John Quiggin Prof. Rabee Tourky
351,515
300,000
A/Prof. Alicia Rambaldi
170,000
Prof. Paul Frijters Dr. KK Tang
130,000 120,000
ARC Linkage Projects Start Year
Project Title
2008
Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes Prof. John Foster on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy Prof. John Quiggin Investigating the impacts of increased power supply to the national grid Prof. John Foster by wind generators on the Australian electricity industry
2012
UQ Chief Investigator(s)
Total ($) 318,673 400,000
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SELECTED PUBLICATIONS 2009 Aliprantis, C. D., Tourky, R., 2009, “Equilibria in incomplete assets economies with infinite dimensional spot markets”, Economic Theory, Vol. 38, Pg. 221-2 Clarke, J., Friesen, L., 2009, “Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study”, The Economic Journal, Vol.119, Pg. 229-251 Heady, D. D., Hodge, A., 2009, “The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature”, Population and Development Review, Vol. 35, Pg. 221-248 Koop, G., Leon-Gonzalez, R. & Strachan, R. W., 2009, “On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 33, Pg. 997-1017 Mosheim, R., Lovell, C.A.K., 2009, “Scale economies and inefficiency of US dairy farms”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 91, Pg. 777-794
2010
Koop, G., Leon-Gonzalez, R. & Strachan, R. W., 2010, “Dynamic probabilities of restrictions in state space models: An application to the Phillips curve”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 28, Pg. 370-379
2012
McLennan, A., Tourky, R., 2010, “Imitation games and computation”, Games and Economic Behaviour, Vol. 70, Pg. 4-11
Carbajal, J.C. & Jeffrey, C.E., 2012, “Mechanism design without revenue equivalence”, Journal of Economic Theory, DOI:10.1016/j.jet2012.12.014 Pg.434-467
McLennan, A., Tourky, R., 2010, “Simple complexity from imitation games”, Games and Economic Behaviour, Vol. 68, Pg. 683-688 Zhou, X., James, G., Liebman, A., Zhao, Y. D.& Ziser, C., 2010, “Partial carbon permits allocation of potential emission trading scheme in Australian electricity market”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 25, Pg. 543-553
2011 Dodgson, M., Hughes, A., Foster, J. & Metcalfe, S., 2011, “Systems thinking, market failure, and the development of innovation policy: The case of Australia”, Research Policy, Vol. 40, Pg. 1145-1156
Arocena, P., Saal, D. S. & Coelli, T., 2012, “Vertical and horizontal scope economies in the regulated U.S. electric power industry”, Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 60:3
Choi, J. P. & Gerlach, H., 2012, “International antitrust enforcement and multimarket contact”, International Economic Review, Vol. 53:2, Pg. 635-657 Chotikapanich, D., Griffiths, W. E., Rao, D. S. P. & Valencia, V., 2012, “Global income distributions and inequality, 1993 and 2000: Incorporating country-level inequality modelled with beta distributions” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 94:1, Pg. 52-73 Eichberger, J., Grant, S. & Kelsey, D., 2012, “When is ambiguity-attitude constant?”Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 45:3, Pg. 239-263 Hajargasht, G., Griffiths, W. E., Brice, J., Rao, D. S. P. & Chotikapanich, D., 2012, “Inference for income distributions using grouped data”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 30:4, Pg. 563-575
Carbajal, J. C., 2010, “On the uniqueness of Groves mechanisms and the payoff equivalence principle”, Games and Economic Behaviour, Vol. 68, Pg. 763-772
Eichberger, J., Grant, S., Kelsey, D. & Koshevoy, G. A., 2011, “The alpha-MEU model: A comment”, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 14, Pg. 1684-1698
Chotikapanich, D., Griffiths, W. E., Rao, D. S. P. & Valencia, V., 2010, “Global income distributions and inequality, 1993 and 2000: Incorporating country-level inequality modelled with beta distributions”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.94, Pg. 52-73
Faravelli, M., Stanca, L., 2011, “When less is more: Rationing and rent dissipation in stochastic contests”, Games and Economic Behaviour, Vol. 74, Pg. 170-183
Kline, J.J., 2012, “Evaluations of the epistemic conditions for resolving the muddy children puzzle”, Journal of Economic Theory, DOI: 10.1007/s00199012-0735-x
Frijters, P., Shields, M. A., Price, S. W. & Williams, J., 2011, “Quantifying the cost of passive smoking on child health: evidence from children’s cotinine samples”, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, Vol. 174, Pg. 195-212
MacKenzie,I.A. & Ohndort, M., 2012, “Restricted Coasean bargaining”, Journal of Public Economics, DOI: 10.10.16/j. jbubeco.2012.11.002
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