and C.Allan Jones, 1992. A method for estimating and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crop:part 1- modification of the ...
Journal of Applied Sciences Research, 6(6): 751-755, 2010 © 2010, INSInet Publication
Sensitivity of Potato Yield to Climate Change Abdrabbo M.A.A.; A.A. Khalil; M.K.K. Hassanien and A.F. Abou-Hadid Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Egypt. Abstract: One significant impact of climate change is the effect upon agriculture. As many evidences indicated that some remarkable changes could happen in climate scenario, the present work is mainly directed to discuss sensitivity of climate change upon the potato production in Egypt. The selection of potato product is mainly dependent upon that potato represent strategic crop cultivated in Egypt. The SUBSTOR potato model was employed to simulate physiological processes and yield of potato production. SUBSTOR model is a mechanistic, process-oriented model for tuber yield includes crop development. The present work introduces two possible cases of climate changes for the sake of climate crop production relationship. The actual measurements for potato production characteristics were used in the comparison with present and predicted. The climate change data is used from two general circulation models (CSIRO and HadCM3) for A1 greenhouse gases Scenario during 2050. The results of the work indicated that the potato yield decrease from 11 to 13% under climate change and the climate change data output from HadCM3 model gave the highest value of potato yield comparing with CSIRO model. And Valor cultivar gave the highest potato yield compared to Dezareah cultivar when the irrigation treatment taken place under current and future climate. Key words: Potato yield, SUBSTOR potato model, Irrigation, Climate change compared to early ones. However, early sowing cannot be relied upon for blight control in years with early monsoons. Yamaguchi et al. [2 ] found that yield, specific gravity and starch content of russet Burbank cv and white Rose cv tubers were higher, whereas the sugar was content lower when grown at soil temperatures between 15 and 24 o C, than when grown at higher temperatures. The DSSAT family of models was used extensively to simulate potato growth and yield [3 ] . Sepp and Tooming[4 ] show that potato productivity is the most sensitive to changes in spring water storage in soils, shifts in potato sowing time, and growth of precipitation. The problem key of mankind's response to climate change is the adaptation of agriculture to the changed agroclimatic conditions and resources. Tooming [5 ] recommend that plant cultivation be established according to the principle of maximum plant productivity. Plant cultivation in accordance with the principle of maximum will be utilize natural resources i.e. soil and climate not only with maximal productivity in the existing environment but also with maxim al efficiency. N atural plant and plant communities are systems that have adapted to the existing climate and all environmental condition during a long evolutionary process. Their structure and functions are harmonically related and well adapted to
INTRODUCTION Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is one of the major crops in Egypt. The national potato crop production does meet both the current local demand, and the export market. The rapid growth of the country population, the economic stress of reliance on food imports, and the limited area for agriculture require Egyptians to find new ways to increase agriculture productivity in general and food crops in specific. Potato is a major industrial crop in Egypt and is one of the main food crops grown mainly in delta, and middle Egypt. The total cultivated area of potato is 89 thousands Hectare, which produced about two million Tons, and the total potato export was 296 thousand ton/year in 2005. The winter season is considered the main cultivated season in Egypt for exported potato production [1 ] . The selection of high yielding, optimization of water levels, sowing dates to improve potato crop production under current and future climate change have to be evaluated. The choice of the best option can conserve the agricultural resources by sowing dates potato crop in the best time for sustainable agriculture in Egypt. In this connection, the best sowing time can improve productivity. There is evidence that foliar blight increase in later crop as
Corresponding Author: Abdrabbo M.A.A.; Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Egypt. 751
J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010 were prepared on the basis of IBSNAT data set [1 1 ]. The required climatic data for El- Beheira Governorate (latitude 31.24 and longitude 30.24) were obtained from Central Laboratory for Agriculture Climate (CLAC), Egypt. Soil chemical and physical properties of the experimental area, the result of soil analysis were tabulated in Table1. Tuber yield potato (kg/ha) were recorded. Genetic coefficients were calculated for the two cultivars to run the SUBSTOR-Potato model with weather data and experimental data for Valour and Dezareah varieties. The comparison between actual data and predicted data was done through SUBSTORpotato model under DSSAT interface in three steps, retrieval data (converting data to SUBSTOR- potato model), and validation data (comparing between predicted and observed data) and run the model DSSAT provides validation of the crop models that allows users to compare simulated outcomes with observed results. Necessary files were prepared as required. Evaluation of applying SUBSTOR- potato model: Calculating the difference percentage between predicted and observed data, Correlation coefficient and paired T-test.
the climate and environmental conditions. Field crops have been developed by human activity over a long period of time. Accordance of plant demands with the given climatic and environmental conditions for agricultural crops is the most important precondition for high productivity if climatic changes as projected by atmospheric scientists (IPCC) [6 ] adversely affected crop production, Egypt would have to increase its reliance on costly food imports. The rising trend of the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO 2) is well established. Estimate of future increases range from 45 % to 115 % above the pre-industrial levels (near 280 ppm) by the year 2040 [7 ] . This increase of CO 2 is expected to induce a change in climate, which its magnitude is still uncertain [6,8 ] . Assessments of the impact of CO 2 induced change on agricultural productivity are needed for both scientific and policy making purposes. The complexity of climate – crop production interaction makes simulation a useful and probably, the only practical available for making the needed assessments [9 ] . The present study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potato yield by using two general circulation models (CSIRO and HadCM3) for A1 greenhouse gases Scenario during 2050.
Future Climate Data During 2050: Climate change scenarios for locations were assessed according to future conditions derived from M AGICC/SCENGEN software of the university of East angle (UK). In this the study two GCM model (CSIRO and HadCM3) and one scenario of climate data were used A1. The principal of MAGICC/SCENGEN is allowing the user to explore the consequences of a medium range of future emissions scenarios. The user selects two such scenarios from library of possibilities. The reason for two scenarios is, to able to compare a no action scenario with an action or policy scenario. Thus, in MAGICC/SCENGEN the two emissions scenarios are referred to as a reference scenario and policy scenario [12 ] . Such data generated from MAGICC- /SCENGEN are represented in one scenario A1 these scenarios are described by IPCC 2001as follows: The A1 scenario describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
M ATERIALS AND M ETHODS The experiment was carried out at El-Bosaily farm, El-Behira Governorate, Egypt during growing seasons of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 to study the effect of water levels on potato yield (Solanum tuberosum L.) Dezareah and valour cultivars. In addition, validation predicted yield by DSSAT (SUBSTOR- Potato model) was compared to actual data and impact of climate change on production of potato. The treatments comprised of four irrigation levels (60, 80, 100 and 120 % of the amount of water calculated according to class A pan equation). Date of planting was October 15 of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007. Chemical properties of the soil of the experiment were analyzed before cultivation and the results are tabulated in Table (1). The permanent wilting point (PW P) and field capacity (FC) of the trial soil were determined according to Israelsen and Hansen [1 0] . Plot area was 150 m2 (15 m length x 10 m width). Plant distances were 30 cm apart. A distance of 2 m was left between each two irrigation treatments. Drip irrigation was used from the first to the end of the two seasons. The total amount of drip irrigation was applied by water flow-meter for each treatment (EC of water irrigation 0.8 dS/m).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Crop M odel Validation: The comparison between observed and predicted data for tuber yield (kg/ha) in the four irrigation levels at El- Beheira Governorate is presented in Table (2) and Figure (1). It was noticed that the output data predicted from the SUBSTORPotato model were in harmony with the observed data for tuber yield. Regarding the effect of different
Crop M odel Validation: Field data was used by SUBSTOR-Potato model through DSSAT software to simulate and predict potato yield. The experiment data
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J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010 irrigation treatment, data showed that using 100 % irrigation level increased potato tuber yield as compared to other irrigation levels. The lowest tuber yield was obtained by 60 % irrigation level treatment. The same curve was obtained from predicted model, difference in tuber yield due to irrigation water levels in both results from observed and predicted data, 100 % irrigation water gave the highest value for two cultivars yield compared to the other irrigation levels (25111, 26088 kg/ha) and (25092, 25122 kg/ha) for observed data in the first and second season, respectively, and (25579, 26550 kg/ha) and (25582, 25590 kg/ha) for predicted data in the first and second season, respectively. The Valour cultivar gave the highest potato yield (Kg/ha) compared with Dezareah cultivar during the two seasons of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007. The difference percentage between observed and predicated data was from -1.7 to -2.6 and from 1.8 to 2.7 % in the first and second seasons, respectively for the Valour and Dezareah cultivar at different irrigation levels. Value of correlation coefficient was 0.998; this mean the same trend was found in predicted and observed data. Paired T- test value was not significant -0.68 and -0.66 in both years respectively. This means no difference between observed and predicted data. Results of the validation experiment indicate that the SUBSTOR- Potato crop model can be used successful to predict the potato yield in Egypt.
Effects of Climate Change on Potato Yield: The potential impact of climate change on potato yield was evaluated by simulating two cultivar and irrigation requirements level on simulated potato production with climate change output models (CSIRO, and HadCM3) for A1 greenhouse gases Scenario by year 2050 compared with that predicted under the current condition 2005/2006 (Table 3). Data revealed that potato yield for the two cultivars under climate change conditions will be decrease under the two models. Potato yield for CSIRO model decreased than HadCM3. Potato yield at irrigation level 100% for the two cultivars (Dezareah and Valour) gave the highest value under climate change for two GCM Model compared to the other irrigation level; the mean potato yield will decrease from 11 to 13 % under climate change during year 2050 for A1 scenario. Conclusion: For the overall results, it could be concluded that DSSAT can be used successfully to predict potato yield in Egypt. Yield under climate change at 2050 may will be decreased from 11 to 13% compared to the current climate at season 2005/2006. Irrigation level 100% gave the highest tuber yield at difference cultivar with two climate change GCM models. Selection of better cultivar and the suitable irrigation level are most the important factors for maximizing potato production.
Table 1: Soil chem ical and physical properties of the experim ent analyzed before cultivation. Chem ical properties EC dS/m pH Ca + + m eq/l M g+ + m eq/l N a + m eq/l K + m eq/l 3.00 7.89 30 10 14.26 1.66 Physical properties Sand % Clay% Silt% Texture FC % P.W .P % 95.31 4.30 0.36 Sandy 16.77 5.65
H CO 3 m eq/l 2.5
Cl - m eq/l 12.6
Bulk density (g/cm 3) 1.44
Table 2: Com parison between observed and predicted data for tuber yield (kg/ha) at El- Beheira Governorate. cultivar Season 2005/2006 2006/2007 D ifference% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Irrigation Levels O bserved Predicted D ifference% O bserved Predicted D ezareah 60% 11837 12145 -2.5 11393 11712 -2.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80% 20707 21215 -2.4 21014 21550 -2.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100% 25111 25579 -1.8 25092 25582 -1.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120% 24458 25089 -2.5 24389 25030 -2.6 M ean 20528 21007 -2.3 20472 20966 -2.4 Valour 60% 14683 15070 -2.6 14429 14780 -2.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80% 23758 24290 -2.2 23681 24250 -2.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100% 26088 26550 -1.7 25122 25590 -1.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120% 25486 26111 -2.4 24569 25210 -2.5 M ean 22504 23005 -2.2 21925 22433 -2.3
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J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010 Table 3: Com parison between observed and predicted data for tuber yield (kg/ha) at El- Beheira Governorate. Cultivar Irrigation Levels Current H adCM 3 D ifference% CSIRO D ifference% D ezareah 60% 12045 10800 -11.5 10252 -14.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80% 21015 19109 -10.0 18239 -13.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100% 25379 23150 -9.6 22445 -11.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120% 24789 22200 -11.7 21420 -13.6 Valour 60% 14920 13439 -11.0 12769 -14.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------80% 24090 21850 -10.3 20997 -12.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100% 26350 24090 -9.4 23410 -11.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------120% 25811 23170 -11.4 21985 -14.8 M ean 21800 19726 -11 18940 -13
Fig. 1: Comparison between observed and predicted data for potato yield at difference irrigation levels during two seasons of 2005/2006 and 2006/2007.
Fig. 2: Comparison between current and future potato production (kg/ha) by using two general circulation models (HadCM3 and CSIRO) for A1 Scenario during 2050 at El- Beheira Governorate.
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J. Appl. Sci. Res., 6(6): 751-755, 2010 8.
Bolin, B., B.R. Doos, J. Jager and R.A., W arrick, (eds), 1986. The Greenhouse Effect: Climatic Changes and Ecosystems. John W iley and Sons, New York, pp: 363-92. 9. Claudio, O., J. Stockle, R. W illiams, Norman J.R. and C.Allan Jones, 1992. A method for estimating and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crop:part 1modification of the EPIC model for climate change analysis. Agricultural systems., pp: 225-238. 10. Israelsen, O.W . and V.E. Hansen, 1962. Irrigation Principles and Practices, third edition, John W iley and Sons, Inc New York, London. 11. IBSNAT (International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer, 1988). Experimental design and data collection procedures for IBSNAT. The minimum data set for systems analysis and crop simulation. Third Ed. Technical Rep.1 Honolulu, HI, USA; IBSNAT. pp: 74. 12. W igley, T.M.L., S.C.B. Raper, M. Hulme and S.J. Smith, 2000. The M agicc/Scengen Climate Scenario Generator Version 2.4: Technical Manual. C.F: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk.
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