Spatial!Dynamics!of!Economic!Growth!

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! Spatial!Dynamics!of!Economic!Growth! in!Switzerland!from!1860!to!2000! ! thèse! présentée!à!la!Faculté!des!sciences!économiques!et!sociales!! de!l’Université!de!Genève!par!

! Christian!Stohr! ! sous!la!direction!de!

Prof.!Michael!Huberman!et! Prof.!Frédéric!RobertGNicoud! pour!l’obtention!du!grade!de!

! Docteur!ès!sciences!économiques!et!sociales! mention!histoire!économique! ! Membres!du!jury!de!thèse:! ! Prof.!Frédéric!ROBERTHNICOUD,!coHdirecteur!de!thèse,!Université!de!Genève! Prof.!Michael!HUBERMAN,!coHdirecteur!de!thèse,!Universités!de!Genève!et!Montréal! Prof.!Juan!Huitzilihuitl!FLORES!ZENDEJAS,!président!du!jury,!Université!de!Genève! Prof.!Ulrich!WOITEK,!Université!de!Zurich! ! ! ! ! ! ! Thèse!no!867! Genève,!26!Septembre!2014! !

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La!Faculté!des!sciences!économiques!et!sociales,!sur!préavis!du!jury,!a!autorisé!l’impression!de! la! présente! thèse,! sans! entendre,! par! là,! n’émettre! aucune! opinion! sur! les! propositions! qui! s’y! trouvent!énoncées!et!qui!n’engagent!que!la!responsabilité!de!leur!auteur.! ! Genève,!le! ! ! Le!doyen! Bernard!MORARD! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Impression!d’après!le!manuscrit!de!l’auteur!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Pour!Irene,!Aïko!et!Leo,!mes!trois!amours! qui!supportent!mes!allures!de!Professeur! Tournesol!et!remplissent!ma!vie!de!joie! ! ! !

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Contents!

Contents!

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Abstract!

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Résumé!

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Remerciements!

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! Introduction!to:!! Spatial!Dynamics!of!Economic!Growth!in!Switzerland!from!1860!to!2008!

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! Let’s!Get!This!Right:!! Swiss!GDP!and!Value!Added!by!Industry!from!1851!to!2008!

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! Regional!Employment,!GDP,!and!Value!Added!per!Worker!! in!Switzerland!from!1860!to!2008!

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! Growth!Poles:!!! Agglomeration!Economies!and!Economic!Growth!! in!Switzerland!from!1860!to!2008!

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! Conclusion!to:!! Spatial!Dynamics!of!Economic!Growth!!in!Switzerland!from!1860!to!2008! ! ! ! !

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Abstract!

In!this!thesis!I!investigate!Swiss!economic!growth!in!spatial!perspective.!Revisiting!the!existing! Swiss!GDP!series,!I!show!that!Swiss!economic!growth!between!1930!and!1985!was!significantly! underestimated.! I! have! proposed! a! new! GDP! series,! which! builds! on! reliable! sources! and! is! corroborated! by! international! benchmark! comparisons! of! GDP! and! wages.! This! series! implies! that! 19thGcentury! Switzerland! was! much! less! rich! than! suggested! by! the! updated! Maddison! database!(Bolt!&!van!Zanden!2013),!which!is!currently!the!main!reference!used!for!international! GDP! per! capita! comparisons.! The! period! 1850! to! 1910! now! stands! out! as! the! most! important! growth!phase!of!Switzerland.!During!that!time,!Swiss!GDP!per!capita!converged!from!below!the! European! average! to! a! level! that! is! comparable! to! the! USA,! which! was! the! world’s! richest! country.!The!interwar!period!was!characterized!by!a!mitigated!growth!performance:!while!the! comparative!performance!was!rather!good!in!the!1920s!and!during!WWII,!the!crises!after!WWI! and!during!the!Great!Depression!affected!Switzerland!more!durably!than!other!economies.!PostG war! growth! was! average! compared! to! other! European! countries! until! 1973,! but! thereafter! Switzerland! suffered! from! a! serious! growth! slack.! Between! 2000! and! 2008! Swiss! growth! was! relatively!fast!again.!! The!growth!trajectory!of!this!new!GDP!series!corroborates!the!argument!that!market!access!was! the!most!important!growth!factor!of!the!Swiss!economy.!The!central!geographical!location!is!the! main! comparative! advantage! of! Switzerland,! which! –! until! the! end! the! 19th! century! –! was! reG enforced! by! openness! to! trade,! immigration,! and! technology! transfers! and! –! during! the! 20th! century! –! was! diminished! by! increasing! protectionism,! xenophobia! and! selfGcomplacency.! The! period!1850!to!1910!was!characterized!by!rapid!market!integration!in!the!world!and!among!the! Helvetic!cantons.!This!context!allowed!Switzerland!to!exploit!its!location!advantage!in!order!to! become!a!rich!economy.! As! a! consequence! of! market! integration! among! Swiss! regions! spatial! concentration! has! accelerated! after! 1880.! Switzerland! has! inherited! relatively! neutral! geographical! structures! from!the!preGindustrial!period,!so!that!the!Swiss!economy!was!still!very!dispersed!in!1860.!But! thereafter,!spatial!concentration!has!rapidly!increased.!Both!employment!and!GDP!have!become! ever!more!concentrated!in!space.!Concentration!was!more!intensive!between!urban!centers!and!

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their! surrounding! territories! than! between! wider! regions! of! the! country.! Concentration! accelerated!first!in!terms!of!GDP!and!then!in!terms!of!employment.!Fast!growing!industries!were! initially!concentrated!in!space!and!dispersed!thereafter.!These!patterns!of!spatial!concentration! are! in! line! with! the! growth! pole! concept! proposed! by! Perroux! (1955):! initially! denser! regions! generate!growth!through!innovation!and!structural!change!before!generating!more!employment! and! transmitting! growth! to! surrounding! regions.! During! the! second! half! of! the! 20th! century! a! series! of! institutional! developments! have! limited! spatial! economic! concentration.! These! are! increasing!tax!competition!at!the!cantonal!and!municipal!level,!fiscal!transfers!from!rich!to!poor! regions,! tax! exemption! of! commuter! costs,! and! cantonal! protectionism.! Generally,! a! deeply! anchored! “Grossstadtkritik”! dominated! Swiss! mentality.! Only! in! the! 21st! century! regional! planning!has!become!less!antiGurban!(Walter!2011;!Walter!2013).!! Regional!inequality!in!labor!productivity!followed!a!bellGshaped!curve!between!1860!and!1990.! This! result! is! very! robust,! because! it! can! be! observed! at! the! level! of! microGregions! and! at! the! level! of! the! larger! labor! market! basins.! It! is! also! discernible! among! the! microGregions! within! several! labor! market! basins.! A! bellGshaped! evolution! of! regional! inequality! was! also! found! in! several! other! countries! (Williamson! 1965;! MartínezGGalarraga! et! al.! forthcoming;! Felice! 2010;! Kim! 1998).! It! contrasts,! however,! with! the! findings! of! Combes! et! al! (2011)! and! Enflo! et! al! (2010),! who! find! continuous! convergence! of! labor! productivity! among! French! and! among! Swedish!regions.!After!1990,!there!has!been!a!renewed!upswing!of!regional!inequality.!A!similar! divergence!at!the!end!of!the!20th!century!was!observed!in!Sweden!(Enflo!et!al.!2010)!and!Italy! (Felice!2010).! These!patterns!of!spatial!economic!concentration!have!had!a!particular!impact!on!Swiss!growth.! During! the! period! 1860! to! 1930,! agglomeration! economies! have! become! gradually! more! important!and!shifted!the!productivity!levels!of!the!densest!regions!upward.!This!effect!was!reG enforced! by! a! positive! feedback! from! productivity! on! agglomeration.! Circular! causality! of! this! type!is!the!very!essence!of!spatial!economic!models!(Fujita!et!al.!2001;!Glaeser!2008).!Between! 1941! and! 1990,! the! strength! of! agglomeration! economies! has! decreased! and! circular! causality! was!broken.!Since!2001!the!effect!has!been!stronger!again,!but!it!did!not!imply!circular!causality.! Different! forms! of! agglomeration! economies! can! be! distinguished.! In! manufacturing,! employment! density! and! the! area! size! of! the! region! were! equally! important,! but! in! services! density! was! essential.! Diversity! of! the! economic! structure! was! very! important! in! services.! The! policies!seeking!to!limit!spatial!economic!agglomeration!seem!to!have!reduced!the!positive!effect! of!density.!In!manufacturing!this!was!compensated!by!an!augmented!positive!effect!of!area!size,! but!in!the!service!sector!this!compensation!did!not!take!place.!Hence,!after!the!rise!of!the!service! economy!antiGurban!policies!have!become!a!growthGlimiting!factor.!

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At!the!bottom!line,!the!rapid!build!up!of!agglomeration!economies!between!1860!and!1930!has! contributed! to! Switzerland’s! most! important! growth! period,! while! the! limitation! of! agglomeration! has! contributed! to! Switzerland’s! growth! slack! after! 1970.! The! revival! of! urban! regions! after! 2001! went! again! together! with! larger! agglomeration! economies! and! faster! economic!growth.! ! !

Résumé!

Cette!thèse!de!doctorat!analyse!la!croissance!économique!suisse!dans!une!perspective!spatiale.! Revisitant! la! série! de! PIB! existante,! je! montre! que! la! croissance! économique! suisse! de! 1930! à! 1985! a! été! significativement! sousGestimée.! La! nouvelle! série! proposée! dans! cette! thèse! est! corroborée! par! des! comparaisons! internationales! directes! des! niveaux! de! PIB! par! habitants! et! des!salaires.!Cette!série!implique!que!la!Suisse!du!XIXème!siècle!était!beaucoup!moins!riche!que! suggéré! par! la! récente! miseGàGjour! de! la! base! de! données! de! Maddison! (Bolt! &! van! Zanden! 2013),! qui! est! la! plus! souvent! utilisée! à! des! fins! de! comparaisons! internationales.! La! période! 1850! à! 1910! apparaît! comme! la! phase! de! croissance! la! plus! importante! de! l’économie! helvétique.!Durant!ces!soixante!ans,!le!PIB!par!habitant!suisse!a!parcouru!une!trajectoire!allant! d’un!niveau!inférieur!à!celui!de!l’Europe!de!l’Ouest!en!moyenne!à!un!niveau!similaire!au!PIB!par! habitant!des!EtatsGUnis,!pays!le!plus!riche!du!monde!en!1910.!La!période!de!l’EntreGdeux!guerres! était! caractérisée! par! une! croissance! plus! mitigée!:! alors! que! la! croissance! suisse! était! relativement! rapide! durant! les! années! 1920! et! durant! la! Seconde! guerre! mondiale,! comparée! aux! autres! pays! européens,! l’économie! suisse! a! été! au! contraire! affectée! plus! sévèrement! et! durablement!par!les!crises!après!la!Première!guerre!mondiale!et!durant!la!Grande!Dépression.! Jusqu’en!1973,!la!croissance!de!l’aprèsGguerre!était!moyenne!en!comparaison!européenne,!mais! durant!les!trois!dernières!décennies!du!XXème!siècle!la!Suisse!a!souffert!d’un!sérieux!manque!de! croissance.!Entre!2000!et!2008,!la!croissance!helvétique!a!renoué!avec!des!taux!plus!élevés.! Cette! trajectoire! de! croissance! corrobore! l’argument! que! l’extraordinaire! accès! aux! marchés! internationaux,! dont! profite! la! Suisse,! constituait! son! facteur! de! croissance! le! plus! important.! Jusqu’à! la! fin! du! XIXème! siècle,! cet! avantage! géographique! a! été! renforcé! par! une! ouverture! au! commerce,! à! l’immigration! et! aux! transferts! de! technologie,! mais! au! XXème! siècle! le! protectionnisme,! la! xénophobie! et! l’autosatisfaction! ont! limité! l’ouverture.! La! période! 1850! à! 1910! était! charterisée! par! une! intégration! de! marché! au! niveau! international! et! intérieur! à! la! Suisse.!Ce!contexte!a!permis!à!la!Suisse!d’exploiter!son!avantage!géographique!afin!de!devenir! l’un!des!pays!les!plus!riches.! Une! autre! conséquence! de! l’intégration! des! marchés! en! Suisse! était! la! concentration! spatiale! croissante.! Vers! 1860,! l’économie! suisse! était! encore! très! faiblement! concentrée! géographiquement,! contrairement! à! d’autres! pays! européens! qui! sont! sortis! de! l’époque! moderne!avec!des!systèmes!urbains!moins!équilibrés.!Cependant,!après!1880,!la!concentration! spatiale! en! Suisse! a! augmenté! rapidement! en! termes! de! PIB! et! d’emploi.! Le! déséquilibre! était! plus!accentué!entre!les!centres!urbains!et!leurs!périphéries!que!entre!les!différentes!régions!du!

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pays.!La!concentration!a!d’abord!accéléré!en!termes!de!PIB!et!ensuite,!en!termes!d’emploi.!!Enfin,! les! industries! dynamiques! étaient! initialement! concentrées! dans! l’espace! mais! elles! se! sont! diffusées! par! la! suite.! Cette! évolution! particulière! de! la! structure! spatiale! de! l’économie! suisse! est! en! accord! avec! le! concept! de! pôle! de! croissance! proposé! par! Perroux! (1955)!:! des! régions! initialement!plus!denses!ont!généré!de!la!croissance!par!l’innovation!et!le!changement!structurel! avant!de!transmettre!la!dynamique!à!d’autres!régions.!Durant!la!seconde!moitié!du!XIXème!siècle,! une! série! de! configurations! institutionnelles! ont! cependant! limité! la! concentration! spatiale! de! l’économie.! Ce! sont! notamment! une! concurrence! fiscale! croissante! entre! les! cantons! et! communes,! des! systèmes! de! transferts! des! régions! riches! vers! les! régions! plus! pauvres,! l’exonération! fiscale! des! coûts! de! pendularité! et! le! protectionnisme! cantonal.! Généralement,! la! mentalité! et! la! planification! territoriale! suisses! étaient! marquées! par! un! esprit! antiGurbain! jusqu’à!la!fin!du!XXème!siècle!(Walter!2011;!Walter!2013).! L’inégalité!régionale!en!termes!de!productivité!a!suivi!une!courbe!en!forme!de!cloche!entre!1860! et!1990.!Il!s’agit!là!d’un!!résultat!très!robuste,!car!cette!évolution!peut!être!observée!entre!microG régions! et! entre! bassins! d’emploi! plus! large.! Elle! est! également! présente! à! l’intérieur! de! plusieurs! bassins! d’emploi.! Ceci! est! en! accord! avec! les! analyses! qui! ont! été! réalisées! dans! plusieurs!autres!pays!(Williamson!1965;!MartínezGGalarraga!et!al.!forthcoming;!Felice!2010;!Kim! 1998).!! Ces! structures! géographiques! ont! eu! un! impact! particulier! sur! la! croissance! économique! régionale! et! nationale.! Durant! la! période! 1860! à! 1930,! les! économies! d’agglomération! ont! pris! de! l’ampleur! contribuant! ainsi! à! l’augmentation! de! la! productivité! des! régions! les! plus! denses.! Cet!effet!a!encore!été!renforcé!par!une!rétroaction!positive!de!la!productivité!sur!la!densité.!Ce! genre!de!causalité!circulaire!est!au!cœur!des!théories!de!l’économie!spatiale!(Fujita!et!al.!2001;! Glaeser! 2008).! Entre! 1941! et! 1990,! les! économies! d’agglomérations! sont! devenues! à! nouveau! plus! faibles! et! la! causalité! circulaire! a! été! interrompue.! Depuis! 2001,! cependant,! l’effet! de! l’agglomération!sur!la!productivité!s’est!renforcé!à!nouveau,!sans!pour!autant!qu’il!y!ait!eu!une! causalité!circulaire.! Différentes! formes! d’économies! d’agglomérations! peuvent! être! distinguées.! Dans! l’industrie,! la! densité! d’emploi! et! la! taille! de! la! région! ont! été! d’égale! importance,! mais! dans! le! secteur! des! services! l’effet! de! la! densité! était! dominant.! La! diversité! de! la! structure! économique! était! également! cruciale! dans! les! services.! Les! interventions! cherchant! à! limiter! la! concentration! spatiale!de!l’économie!sont!allées!de!pair!avec!une!réduction!de!l’effet!positif!de!la!densité!sur!la! productivité.! Dans! l’industrie! cela! a! été! compensé! par! un! effet! positif! accru! de! la! taille! de! la! région,! au! contraire! dans! le! secteur! des! services,! ce! type! de! compensation! n’a! pas! eu! lieu.! Par! conséquent,! après! l’avènement! de! l’économie! des! services,! les! politiques! antiGurbaines! sont! de! facto!devenues!un!facteur!limitant!la!croissance!économique.!

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En! guise! de! conclusion,! l’importance! croissante! d’économies! d’agglomération! entre! 1860! et! 1930!a!contribué!à!la!phase!de!croissance!la!plus!importante!de!l’économie!suisse,!alors!que!la! limitation! de! agglomération! a! renforcé! le! manque! de! croissance! de! l’économie! suisse! après! 1970.!La!redynamisation!des!régions!urbaines!après!2001!est!à!nouveau!allée!de!pair!avec!des! économies!d’agglomération!plus!importantes!et!une!croissance!plus!rapide.! ! ! !

Remerciements!

Je! remercie! Frédéric' Robert-Nicoud! d’avoir! accepté! de! diriger! cette! thèse! depuis! septembre! 2010.!Ses!enseignements,!conseils!de!lecture!et!commentaires!m’ont!permis!de!me!familiariser! avec! la! littérature! théorique! et! empirique! sur! l’économie! spatiale! pertinente! pour! la! problématique! de! ma! thèse.! J’admire! sa! capacité! de! formaliser! instantanément! une! idée! qui! tombe! lors! d’une! discussion! en! un! modèle! théorique! quasiment! près! à! être! écrit! sur! son! wallboard.!Je!regrette!que!l’élaboration!des!données!historiques!ait!pris!une!si!grande!partie!du! temps!de!mon!assistanat,!ainsi!qu’il!ne!me!restait!que!très!peu!de!temps!pour!mettre!en!oeuvre! ce! que! j’ai! appris! sur! l’économie! spatiale.! Toujours! estGil! que! les! futures! analyses! que! je! ferai! avec!ma!base!de!données!seront!également!guidées!par!ce!que!j’ai!appris!avec!Frédéric.! ! I! am! also! thankful! to! Michael' Huberman! for! his! supervision! since! September! 2012.! His! help! came!in!a!crucial!moment,!when!I!had!to!find!a!way!to!combine!my!theoretical!knowledge!and! my! database,! which! was! still! under! construction! at! that! moment,! with! historical! contexts! and! historiographical! debates.! This! was! also! a! moment! when! I! had! to! figure! out! what! kind! of! economic!historian!I!wanted!to!be,!which!form!I!wanted!to!give!my!thesis,!and!how!I!could!keep! one!foot!on!either!side!of!two!parts!of!a!faculty!that!were!drifting!apart.!Michael!has!given!me!the! scientific!and!personal!support!that!I!needed!in!that!situation.!! ! Je!tiens!à!remercier!également!Juan' Flores!qui!–!avant!d’être!le!président!de!mon!jury!–!est!un! super! collègue! de! travail! et! un! ami.! J’ai! souvent! profité! de! pouvoir! rapidement! discuter! une! question! particulière! ou! un! problème! avec! lui.! Il! m’a! fourni! des! explications,! posé! les! bonnes! questions! ou! indiqué! des! références,! des! bases! de! données! et! des! manuels! d’économie! ou! d’économétrie!qui!m’étaient!utiles.!Mais!en!proposant!des!pauses!café,!des!repas!de!midi!ou!des! apéro!il!m’a!aussi!permis!de!changer!d’idées!et!sortir!ma!tête!des!fichiers!Excel!de!ma!base!de! donnée.!Il!faut!néanmoins!souligner!aussi!ça!conscience!professionnelle.!Ce!n’est!pas!parce!que! nous! sommes! ami! qu’il! n’aurait! pas! fait! correctement! sont! travail! de! président! du! jury.! D’ailleurs,!j’ai!même!trouvé!que!c’était!le!plus!pénible!de!tous!les!membres!du!jury!;G).! !

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Ein! herzliches! Dankeschön! geht! auch! an! Ulrich' Woitek! für! seine! Bereitschaft! als! externer! Experte! in! meiner! Jury! mitzuwirken.! Seine! Kommentare! zu! meiner! Arbeit! waren! mir! sehr! hilfreich.!Ich!danke!ihm!ebenfalls,!mich!zu!einer!Veranstaltung!in!Zurich!eingeladen!zu!haben.!Es! scheint!mir!sinnvoll!die!Zusammenarbeit!zwischen!Wirtschaftshistorikern!in!Genf!und!Zürich!zu! intensivieren.! ! Un!grand!merci!va!également!à!Michel' Oris,!sans!qui!je!n’aurais!probablement!pas!commencé! une!thèse.!C’est!grâce!à!lui!que!j’ai!été!engagé!dans!un!projet!de!recherche!directement!après!ma! licence!et!que!j’ai!pu!intégrer!le!Département!d’histoire!économique!peu!après.!! ! Je!remercie!également!Mary'O’Sullivan!pour!la!confiance!qu’elle!a!eu!et!qu’elle!continue!à!avoir! en!moi!en!tant!qu’enseignant.!Nous!n’avons!pas!toujours!été!d’accords!sur!l’avenir!de!l’histoire! économique!et!la!direction!que!le!Département!devrait!prendre,!mais!j’ai!adoré!en!débattre!avec! elle.!! ! I!thank!Stephen' Broadberry!for!a!very!fruitful!discussion!of!my!thesis.!He!has!encouraged!me! to! have! a! closer! look! at! the! Swiss! GDP! series,! which! he! considered! problematic.! I! think! I! managed!to!identify!the!problem!and!find!a!solution!to!it.!I!also!received!helpful!comments!from! Joan' Rosés! and! Max-Stephan' Schulze.! Hopefully,! my! application! for! a! SNF! Postdoc! mobility! grant! to! go! to! London! School! of! Economics! after! my! thesis! will! be! accepted.! Being! a! research! fellow! at! the! institution! of! professors! Broadberry,! Rosés,! and! Schulze! will! be! an! extraordinary! occasion.!! ! Ich! danke! Heiner' Ritzmann-Blickenstorfer! für! seine! Bereitschaft! desagregierte! Daten! seiner! BWS! Schätzungen! mit! mir! zu! teilen.! Seine! Kommentare! zur! Harmonisierung! meiner! Beschäftigungsdaten!mit!seinen!Wertschöpfungsdaten!waren!mir!äusserst!hilfreich.!Zuvor!hatte! ich! bereits! einige! Daten! von! Manuel' Hiestand! erhalten,! dem! ich! an! dieser! Stelle! ebenfalls! danken!möchte.! ! Je! remercie! Carlos' De' Porres! d’avoir! passé! quelques! heures! avec! moi! pour! discuter! de! problèmes! d’endogénéité,! de! variables! instrumentales! et! de! différents! tests! économétriques.! Alain' Dubois! m’a! aidé! pour! l’utilisation! d’ArcMap! et! la! gestion! de! données! géographiques.! Adrien'Remund!a!généreusement!accepté!de!partager!ses!notes!de!cours!concernant!le!logiciel! R!avec!moi.! !

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Finalement,!j’aimerais!remercier!mes' collègues,!notamment!Liza,!ma!collègue!de!bureau,!pour! avoir!contribué!à!créer!une!ambiance!de!travail!agréable.!J’ai!passé!des!années!inoubliables!avec! vous.!!

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Introduction!to:! Spatial'Dynamics'of'Economic'Growth'! in#Switzerland#from#1860#to#2008!

Christian!Stohr! University!of!Geneva! Paul!Bairoch!Institute!for!Economic!History! ! ! ! „![...]!le!fait,!grossier!mais!solide,!est!celuiHci:!la!croissance!n’apparaît!pas!partout!à!la!fois;! !elle!se!manifeste!en!des!points!ou!pôles!de!croissance,!avec!des!intensités!variables;! !elle!se!répand!par!divers!canaux!et!avec!des!effets!terminaux!variables!pour!l’ensemble!de! l’économie.“!! (Perroux!1955).! ! ! This!thesis!investigates!Swiss!economic!growth!as!a!spatial!phenomenon.!The!underlying!idea!is! that! geography! has! a! strong! impact! on! economic! growth.! This! is! particularly! true! for! Switzerland.!Two!geographical!levels!are!important!in!this!respect:!Switzerland’s!location!in!the! world!and!the!internal!geographical!structure!of!Switzerland.!The!central!geographical!location! in! the! middle! of! Europe,! which! implies! very! easy! market! access,! is! clearly! the! most! powerful! explanatory! factor! for! Switzerland’s! high! standard! of! living.! On! the! other! hand,! the! impact! of! Switzerland’s!internal!spatial!structures!on!its!growth!is!much!less!clear.!The!existing!literature! has! mainly! focused! on! insolated! regions! or! on! comparisons! of! a! few! regions.! But! no! study! has! tried!to!measure!the!impact!of!agglomeration!structures!on!growth!in!a!general!framework.!Such! an!analysis!is!very!dataGintensive.!It!is!the!purpose!of!this!thesis!to!elaborate!the!necessary!data,! describe! the! evolution! of! spatial! economic! concentration,! and! measure! the! importance! of! agglomeration!economies.!!

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Christian!Stohr!/!Introduction!to:!Spatial!Dynamics!of!Economic!Growth!in!Switzerland!from!1860!to!2008!

Investigating!the!spatial!dimensions!of!economic!growth!is!also!a!way!to!increase!the!amount!of! information.!Augmenting!the!number!of!dimensions!(time,!industries,!and!regions)!contributes! to!a!better!understanding!of!the!growth!process.!In!early!stages!of!analysis,!the!scope!for!multiG dimensionality!is!particularly!important.!Research!on!Swiss!economic!growth!is!still!in!such!an! early! stage,! because! data! is! very! fragmented! so! that! little! is! known! about! the! Swiss! growth! trajectory! and! its! determinants.! Augmenting! and! improving! the! available! amount! of! data! increases! the! possibilities! to! analyze! potential! sources! of! growth.! By! elaborating! employment,! GDP,! and! productivity! data! with! a! high! degree! of! detail! in! the! geographical! and! sectorial! dimensions! and! over! a! long! time! span,! this! thesis! makes! an! important! contribution! to! the! analysis!of!Swiss!economic!growth.! Investigating! the! spatial! dimension! of! economic! growth! has! also! a! conceptual! justification.! Economic!activity!and!economic!growth!are!spatial!phenomena.!Economic!activity!is!not!evenly! distributed!in!space:!firms,!workers,!and!entire!industries!appear!to!agglomerate!under!certain! circumstances.!This!leads!to!the!existence!of!industry!clusters,!cities,!large!agglomerations!and! metropolitan! areas.! Wealth! is! not! evenly! distributed! in! space! either! and! this! is! not! only! a! question!of!national!differences:!Differences!of!wealth!between!regions!of!the!same!country!and! even! between! neighborhoods! within! the! same! city! can! be! more! important! than! wealth! differentials!between!countries.!Economic!growth,!as!well,!happens! somewhere;!as!pointed!out! by!Perroux!(1955),!it!does!not!appear!everywhere!at!once!and!at!the!same!rate,!but!it!emerges! from!certain!growth!poles!and!diffuses!from!there.!The!growth!pole!concept,!coined!by!Perroux,! must! be! taken! seriously.! An! attempt! to! understand! the! growth! trajectory! of! a! given! country! should!therefore!not!neglect!the!spatial!dimension!of!the!phenomenon.!The!question!“where!has! economic!growth!come!from?”!is!the!flip!side!of!the!question!“what!drives!economic!growth”.! The! structure! of! the! thesis! is! as! follows:! This! introduction! establishes! the! historiographical! context.!Paper!I!revisits!Swiss!GDP!and!value!added!by!industry!showing!that!Switzerland’s!most! important! growth! phase! was! the! period! 1850! to! 1910.! Paper! II! establishes! a! detailed! geographical!dataset!on!employment!by!industry,!GDP,!and!productivity.!Paper!III!analyzes!this! dataset!describing!the!evolution!of!spatial!concentration!of!economic!activity!and!measuring!the! impact! of! agglomeration! on! economic! growth.! The! main! findings! are! that! regional! inequality! followed! a! bell! shaped! evolution.! In! a! first! phase! until! 1930,! agglomeration! economies! have! gained!increasing!importance!contributing!to!Switzerland’s!fast!growth!during!the!Belle!Epoque! and! the! 1920s.! In! a! second! phase,! a! series! of! policy! interventions! seeking! to! reduce! spatial! concentration! have! limited! the! strength! of! agglomeration! economies! putting! thereby! also! a! constraint!on!economic!growth.!The!conclusion!gauges!the!major!contributions!of!this!thesis!and! sets!the!agenda!for!future!research.!


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The'spatial'turn'in'economics'and'economic'geography' The! spatial! turn! in! economics! is! a! recent! phenomenon.! Although! Adam! Smith! and! Alfred! Marshall! noted! the! benefits! of! market! access! and! agglomeration,! the! 20th–century! economists! have!largely!ignored!geography.!An!exception!was!the!field!of!urban!economics,!which!built!on! the!assumption!of!Marshallian!external!economies!and!sought!to!model!the!effects!of!congestion! costs!on!land!prices,!city!size,!and!density.!While!economic!geographers!like!Myrdal!(1963)!and! Pred! (1966)! analyzed! agglomeration! and! regional! divergence! relying! on! mechanisms! of! cumulative!causation,!economists!refrained!from!modeling!such!feedback!mechanisms!because! the! necessary! introduction! of! scale! economies! was! not! reconcilable! with! competitive! market! structures.! The! monopolistic! competition! framework! introduced! by! Dixit! and! Stiglitz! (Dixit! &! Stiglitz! 1977;! Ethier! 1982)! allowed! for! an! “increasing! returns! revolution”! in! trade,! geography,! and!growth!theory!(Krugman!2009).!Finally,!Krugman’s!coreGperiphery!model!launched!a!whole! new!economic!geography!literature!which!reGintroduced!space!into!economic!theory!(Krugman! 1991).! In! contrast! to! neoclassical! trade! and! growth! theories,! which! predict! convergence! and! factor! price! equalization,! new! economic! geography! models! show! that,! in! the! presence! of! scale! economies,! market! integration! can! lead! to! self! reGenforcing! agglomeration! and! persistent! divergence.! Although!historians!have!always!been!more!sensitive!to!the!absence!of!convergence,!persistent! inequalities,!regionalism,!and!pathGdependency,!the!advancements!in!economic!theory!have!also! given! a! new! impetus! to! geographical! approaches! in! economic! history.! Moreover,! the! pathG dependent! nature! of! new! economic! geography! models! has! increased! economists’! interest! in! history.! On! the! one! hand,! the! last! two! decades! have! witnessed! a! proliferation! of! studies! on! historical!episodes!of!market!integration!highlighting!the!importance!of!the!transport!revolution! and! trade! policy! as! well! as! administrative,! and! cultural! borders1.! The! transport! revolution! has! greatly! reduced! trade! costs! between! and! within! countries! (Federico! 2007;! Brunt! &! Cannon! 2013).!However,!market!integration!has!started!already!before!the!major!railway!construction! period!(Federico!2012;!Jacks!2005;!Jacks!2006).!Trade!policy!appears!to!have!been!the!dominant! determinant! of! international! market! integration! (Federico! &! Persson! 2010).! National! and! administrative! borders! have! persistent! effects,! even! after! their! abolition! (Nitsch! &! Wolf! 2009;! Wolf!2008);!and!ethnoGlinguistic!networks!can!also!generate!significant!border!effects!(Schulze! &!Wolf!2009;!Schulze!&!Wolf!2009).! On! the! other! hand,! understanding! the! spatial! economic! adjustments! to! market! integration! has! become!a!major!task!of!historical!economic!geography.!For!this!purpose,!important!efforts!have! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1!For!

a! review! of! the! literature! on! market! integration! within! Europe! and! the! Atlantic! economy! see!

Federico!(2012).!

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been! made! to! estimate! regional! GDP! series! for! several! countries.! Geary! and! Stark! have! developed! a! method! to! decompose! national! GDP! into! subnational! aggregates,! which! has! been! replicated! for! several! countries! (Geary! &! Stark! 2002;! Crafts! 2005;! Schulze! 2007;! Buyst! 2009;! Enflo!et!al.!2010;!Felice!2010;!MartínezGGalarraga!et!al.!forthcoming).! Subsequent!studies!have!investigated!the!evolution!of!regional!inequality.!Their!results!point!to! a! bell! shaped! pattern! resulting! from! divergence! in! a! first! phase! of! industrialization! and! convergence! in! a! second! phase,! as! industry! diffuses.! Accordingly,! the! industry! composition! component!usually!dominates!the!intraGindustry!productivity!component!of!regional!inequality.! A! new! upswing! of! regional! inequality! has! occurred! in! many! countries! after! 1980! (Williamson! 1965;!Kim!1998;!Caselli!&!Coleman!2001;!Geary!&!Stark!2002;!Crafts!2005;!Felice!2011;!Enflo!et! al.! 2010;! Buyst! 2009;! Schulze! 2007;! Combes! et! al.! 2011).! Studies! of! regional! wage! inequality! provide! evidence! of! convergence,! through! either! migration! or! interregional! trade! leading! to! factor!price!equalization!(Rosés!&!SánchezGAlonso!2004;!Enflo!et!al.!2013).! A! series! of! studies! has! focused! on! the! determinants! of! industry! location.! Two! types! of! mechanisms!are!usually!opposed:!factor!endowments!and!market!access.!There!is!evidence!for! both! types! of! mechanisms.! While! the! study! on! the! UK! attributes! a! dominant! role! to! factor! endowments,!the!studies!on!Spain,!Poland,!and!the!US!suggest!increasing!importance!of!market! access! (Kim! 1999;! MidelfartGKnarvik! et! al.! 2000;! Tirado! et! al.! 2002;! Rosés! 2003;! Wolf! 2005;! Crafts! &! Mulatu! 2006;! MartinezGGalarraga! 2012;! Klein! &! Crafts! 2012).! Crafts! and! Wolf! (2013)! show!that!the!localization!of!the!UK!cotton!industry!in!Lancashire!was!determined!by!a!mix!of! first!nature!advantages!–!important!water!flows!and!rugged!terrain!–!and!acquired!advantages!–! access!to!markets!and!agglomeration!economies!–!as!well!as!sunk!costs.! Others! have! focused! on! the! adjustment! process! to! particular! border! changes,! e.g.! the! German! Division!and!ReGunification!(Redding!&!Sturm!2008),!the!Fall!of!the!Iron!curtain!(Brülhart!et!al.! 2011),!and!Saxony’s!adherence!to!the!Zollverein!(Ploeckl!2008).!These!studies!suggest!that!the! resulting! change! of! market! access! significantly! affected! growth! in! cities! located! close! to! the! border.! In! the! case! of! the! German! Division! the! adjustment! process! has! taken! around! 30! years.! After! the! Fall! of! the! Iron! curtain! wages! adjusted! faster! than! employment,! but! the! bottom! line! change!in!employment!was!stronger!than!that!of!wages.!! The! spatial! turn! in! economics! and! economic! history! has! also! led! to! renewed! interest! in! urban! history.!The!older!urban!history!literature!has!highlighted!the!rather!positive!relation!between! urbanization!and!economic!development!(Mumford!1989;!Bairoch!1985;!Wrigley!1990;!Wrigley! 1987;! Hohenberg! 1990)! although! cities! were! also! qualified! as! parasitic! under! certain! circumstances! (Hoselitz! 1955).! Identifying! structural! breaks! in! the! evolution! of! European! urbanization! was! therefore! an! important! debate! in! this! literature! opposing! Bairoch! and! De! Vries.! Bairoch! (1985)! saw! the! main! structural! break! in! the! 19th! century,! when! city! sizes! and!


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urbanization! rates! dramatically! increased,! while! De! Vries! (1984)! put! emphasis! on! the! 17th! century,! when! Europe! developed! a! steeper! urban! hierarchy! and! the! center! of! gravity! of! urban! Europe!moved!from!south!to!north.!Improved!agricultural!productivity,!falling!transport!costs,! increasing!mobility,!and!real!income!growth!were!proposed!as!the!main!sources!of!accelerated! urbanization!(Bairoch!&!Goertz!1986;!Wrigley!1987;!Hohenberg!2003).!Ports,!national!capitals,! and! major! trading! hubs! were! identified! as! the! most! dynamic! cities! (Bairoch! et! al.! 1988).! The! newer! urban! history! literature! confirms! many! of! these! findings! with! more! sophisticated! statistical! methods.! First! nature! geography! appears! to! have! been! the! main! determinant! of! city! location!in!Europe,!while!the!relative!position!with!respect!to!other!cities!(urban!potential)!has! become!important!only!from!the!17th!century!on!(Bosker!&!Buringh!2010).!This!contrasts!with! the! results! of! Ioannides! and! Overman! (2004),! which! suggest! that! city! location! in! the! 20th! century! USA! is! not! significantly! different! from! random.! The! impact! of! ports! and! capitals! on! urban!size!is!confirmed!in!several!studies!(Bosker,!Brakman,!et!al.!2008;!Bosker,!Buringh,!et!al.! 2008;! De! Long! &! Shleifer! 1993),! while! the! evidence! for! the! impact! of! market! potential! on! city! size!is!contradictory.!Access!to!coal!became!an!important!determinant!of!European!city!growth! after! the! industrial! revolution! (Fernihough! &! O’Rourke! 2014).! But! the! impact! of! the! steam! engine! on! overall! urbanization! in! the! US! is! subject! to! debate! (Rosenberg! &! Trajtenberg! 2004;! Kim!2005).! There! is! also! increasing! interest! for! the! impact! of! agglomeration! on! productivity! and! the! performance! of! individual! firms.! Many! studies! highlight! the! importance! of! agglomeration! economies! for! certain! clusters.! Examples! are! the! Lancashire! cotton! industry! and! the! related! merchant! houses! (Broadberry! &! Marrison! 2002;! Leunig! 2003;! Broadberry! et! al.! 2009;! Balderston!2010).!In!a!broader!perspective,!Broadberry!(2004)!attributes!UK’s!lasting!services! productivity!advantage!over!Germany!to!agglomeration!economies!due!to!superior!urbanization.! In!a!still!wider!perspective,!statistical!evidence!for!agglomeration!economies!has!been!provided! for! the! aggregate! economy! in! France! and! Spain! over! the! whole! 20th! century! (MartínezG Galarraga! et! al.! 2008;! Combes! et! al.! 2011).! Baten! (2003)! finds! evidence! for! a! positive! effect! of! agglomeration! on! firm! entry! in! Baden! around! 1900;! and! Boschma! and! Wenting! (2007)! show! that!agglomeration!positively!affected!the!survival!rate!of!British!car!producers.!! In! sum,! historical! economic! geography! has! investigated! two! main! topics:! the! evolution! of! regional!inequalities!(convergence!vs!divergence)!and!the!location!of!industry!(in!particular!the! spatial! adjustment! to! falling! trade! costs).! Thereby,! historical! economic! geography! has! thrown! new!light!on!geographical!inequalities.!By!drawing!attention!to!industry!location!patterns!it!has! shown! that! factor! endowments! and! institutions! are! not! the! only! determinants! of! a! region’s! economic!success.!The!cumulative!causation!lying!at!the!heart!of!agglomeration!mechanisms!can!

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accentuate!initial!differences!and!lead!to!divergence,!lockGin!effects,!and!dramatic!agglomeration! processes!that!cannot!be!explained!with!factor!endowments!and!institutional!contexts.!

Regional)approaches)in)Swiss)history) Switzerland! is! a! country! of! many! regional! contrasts! along! different! axes:! Topographically,! the! alpine!region!is!clearly!distinct!from!the!flat!country,!the!Jura!Mountains!and!the!region!in!the! south! of! the! Alps.! The! religious! cleavages! between! predominantly! protestant! and! catholic! regions!have!existed!ever!since!the!Reformation.!They!were!exacerbated!in!the!1830s!and!1840s! leading!to!a!civil!war,!the!soGcalled!Sonderbundskrieg,!which!was!resolved!by!the!foundation!of!a! laic! and! federalist! nation! state! in! 1848! (Walter! 2009b,! p.18‑35).! Even! after! the! separation! of! religion! and! politics,! confessional! identities! have! remained! an! important! cultural! element,! in! particular! during! the! Kulturkampf! in! the! 1870s! and! 1880s! (Walter! 2009b,! p.54‑61).! On! the! politicoHadministrative! axis! Switzerland! is! characterized! by! a! pronounced! federalist! structure.! The! Helvetic! Confederation! is! still! composed! of! twentyGsix! autonomous! cantons! with! their! proper! constitutions,! regional! authorities,! and! extended! competencies! in! various! domains! (Kriesi!1998,!p.50‑89).!Another!axis!is!defined!by!the!culturalHlinguistic!identity!of!the!different! regions.! Switzerland! counts! four! official! languages! associated! to! different! regions.! The! ruralH urban! divide,! which! constitutes! another! socioGcultural! axis,! was! affected! alternatively! by! institutional!and!economic!factors.!First,!the!Helvetic!Revolution!at!the!end!of!the!18th!century! put! an! end! to! the! political! hegemony! of! the! medieval! and! earlyGmodern! city! states! on! their! surrounding! territory! (Walter! 2009a,! p.9‑34);! Second,! after! the! middle! of! the! 19th! century! economic!factors!have!caused!increasing!urbanization!of!the!population!up!until!the!1970s!and! urban! decentralization! thereafter! (Rossi! 1983).! Economic! historians! have! also! highlighted! regionally! distinct! forms! of! economic! organization! with! certain! regions! engaging! in! mass! production!while!others!privileged!flexible!specialization!strategies!(Veyrassat!1982;!Veyrassat! 1997).!Different!predominant!sectors!and!orientation!towards!export!or!domestic!markets!also! imply!different!types!of!regional!elites!(Humair!2004).! Switzerland’s! topographic,! linguistic,! confessional,! and! socioGeconomic! diversity,! as! well! as! its! federalist! structure! makes! the! regional! level! relevant! in! many! respects.! Regional! approaches! have!therefore!had!a!long!tradition!in!Switzerland.!Nonetheless,!Swiss!economic!history!has!not! been!connected!to!the!international!historical!economic!geography!literature,!because!data!has! been! highly! fragmented! and! because! historians! have! refrained! from! the! application! of! general! theories!emphasizing!instead!the!local!historical!context.!This!thesis!provides!a!first!step!toward! the! integration! of! Switzerland! in! the! international! historical! economic! geography! literature:! namely! the! elaboration! of! a! comprehensive! and! detailed! regional! dataset! that! allows! for! a! systematic!analysis!of!spatial!patterns!of!the!Swiss!economy.!


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Spatial'patterns'of'the'Swiss'economy' Different! elements! about! the! spatial! structure! of! the! Swiss! economy! can! be! found! in! the! literature.! These! include! differences! in! regional! endowments,! accessibility,! urbanization,! and! regional!specialization!patterns.!

Regional)endowments) The!relative!abundance!or!scarcity!of!production!factors!shapes!the!specialization!structure!and! the!possibilities!for!development!of!an!economy.!This!argument!is!most!familiar!in!the!context!of! international! trade.! According! to! the! concept! of! comparative! advantage,! relative! productivity! structures!determine!the!export!specialization!of!an!economy.!In!the!textbook!HeckscherGOhlin! model!relative!productivity!structures!result!from!factor!endowments.!Economic!historians!have! used! relative! factor! endowments! to! explain! different! technological! trajectories.! This! approach! goes! back! to! Habbakuk’s! (1962)! comparison! between! 19thGcentury! UK! and! USA! and! LévyG Leboyer’s! (1968)! comparison! of! the! British! and! the! continental! industrialization2.! Recently,! Allen!(2009)!has!advanced!a!similar!argument!evoking!relative!factor!prices!to!explain!why!the! Industrial!Revolution!first!happened!in!Britain.!! For!the!case!of!Switzerland!the!lack!of!natural!resources!and!the!abundance!of!cheap!and!wellG trained! labor! is! familiar.! It! is! a! common! place! that! Switzerland! managed! to! compensate! the! absence!of!natural!resources!with!a!highly!skilled!workforce!and!with!cuttingGedge!technology.! According! to! Bergier! (1984,! p.119)! these! endowment! structures! have! guided! the! growth! trajectory!of!the!Swiss!economy!over!a!very!long!time,!starting!long!before!the!industrialization.! Following! LévyGLeboyer! (1968),! Veyrassat! (1982)! opposes! the! continental! model! of! industrialization,!for!which!Switzerland!is!typical,!to!the!British:!Both!models!are!a!response!to! relative!factor!endowments.!The!continental!model!is!a!response!to!relatively!abundant,!cheap! labor!and!deficient!energy!supply!leading!to!specialization!in!laborGintensive,!endGofGproductionG chain!sectors,!while!the!British!model!builds!on!cheap!energy!to!substitute!for!scarce,!expensive! labor! leading! to! specialization! in! capital! and! energy! intensive! beginningGofGproductionGchain! sectors.! Similar! arguments! have! been! advanced! for! the! differential! development! of! regions! within! Switzerland.! The! most! prominent! disparity! concerns! access! to! capital.! In! the! 16th! and! 17th! centuries,!Swiss!cities!have!accumulated!large!amounts!of!capital!from!the!mercenary!business! or!commercial!and!protoGindustrial!activities.!But!the!demand!for!capital!was!rather!limited!in! Switzerland,!so!that!there!was!an!excessive!offer!of!capital!driving!interest!rates!in!Switzerland! to!a!level,!which!was!lower!than!in!other!countries!at!that!time!(Altorfer!2008).!In!this!context! Swiss! cities! have! become! important! capital! providers! in! a! wider! geographical! area.! The! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2!For!a!review!of!this!literature!and!examples!in!Swiss!historiography!see!Veyrassat!(1995,!p.214‑217).!

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Stadtwechsel!of!Basel,!the!Genevan!private!bankers,!and!Bank!Leu!of!Zurich!have!functioned!as! important!financial!intermediates!organizing!the!exportation!of!Swiss!capital!to!European!cities! and!states.!Genevan!bankers!played!a!notable!role!in!the!financing!of!the!European!wars!of!Louis! XIV!and!issued!public!loans!for!several!states!(Cassis!1997;!Bergier!1984).!The!wealth!of!Swiss! cities! and! their! connectedness! to! European! capital! markets! clearly! contrasts! with! the! indebtedness!and!lack!of!financial!development!in!rural!regions.!In!this!context,!mortgage!loans! were! the! only! available! types! of! credit! and! they! were! usually! contracted! between! lender! and! farmers! without! any! financial! intermediates.! Most! often! they! were! used! to! payGoff! nonG inheriting!siblings!rather!than!for!productive!investments!(Pfister!2012).!! This!duality!between!the!larger!cities!and!rural!regions!remained!well!into!the!19th!century.!In! protoGindustrial! regions,! such! as! the! areas! of! Glarus! and! St.! Gallen,! access! to! credit! remained! limited! even! in! the! midG19th! century.! In! this! region! the! upper! class! did! dispose! of! a! certain! amount! of! capital,! but! since! interest! rates! were! rather! low! in! Switzerland,! they! preferred! to! invest!abroad.!ShortGterm!capital!provided!by!the!cotton!merchants!and!mortgage!loans!did!not! allow!important!investments!in!equipment.!As!a!consequence,!the!cotton!industry!of!Glarus!and! St.! Gallen! specialized! in! more! laborGintensive! activities! such! as! calico! printing! and! embroidery! that!were!less!dependent!on!capital!(Veyrassat!1982).!The!situation!was!different!in!the!regions! of! Zurich! and! Argovia,! where! access! to! capital! was! easier.! These! regions! specialized! in! more! capitalGintensive!segments!particularly!cotton!spinning.!Here!the!merchant!bankers!were!more! directly!involved!in!industrial!activities.!The!majority!of!the!earliest!cottonGspinning!companies! between! 1800! and! 1815! were! founded! by! men! who! have! either! themselves! or! their! families! been! active! as! protoGindustrial! merchants.! Protected! from! the! English! competition! by! the! continental!blocus!early!mechanized!cotton!mills!made!important!profits!which!allowed!them!to! further!invest!in!equipment!(Dudzik!1987).! The!importance!of!access!to!natural!resources!is!a!common!place!in!the!international!historical! economic! geography! literature! (Kim! 1999;! Wolf! 2005;! Crafts! &! Mulatu! 2006;! MartinezG Galarraga! 2012;! Klein! &! Crafts! 2012;! Fernihough! &! O’Rourke! 2014).! Switzerland! lacks! natural! resources! such! as! coal,! oil! and! ore;! even! in! terms! of! fertility! of! agricultural! land! this! alpine! country! is! not! very! well! endowed.! But! there! are! two! topographic! elements! that! the! Swiss! economy! managed! to! exploit! very! efficiently:! water! and! landscapes! (Haefeli! 2012,! p.703).! Waterpower!was!an!important!source!of!energy!in!early!industrialization!(Bärtschi!1983).!Yet,! until!the!end!of!the!19th!century,!when!waterpower!could!finally!be!transformed!into!electrical! power,!this!energy!was!available!only!along!the!large!river!basins,!so!that!localization!along!one! of!the!main!rivers!and!important!investments!in!order!to!exploit!waterpower!were!the!drivers! behind! an! important! concentration! movement! in! the! cottonGspinning! sector! during! the! 1820s! (Dudzik!1987,!chap.3.2).!!


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For!many!historians!the!lack!of!natural!resources!is!seen!as!a!blessing!rather!than!a!curse!(Stucki! 1970;!Bergier!1984;!Straumann!2010).!They!see!the!good!qualification!of!the!Swiss!labor!force! as! a! direct! consequence! of! the! lack! of! natural! resources.! It! is! a! wellGknown! fact! that! protoG industry!has!emerged!in!locations!with!less!fertile!land!but!close!to!cities!with!trade!connections! (Pfister!1992).!The!Jura!Mountains!with!the!nearby!cities!of!Geneva,!Neuchâtel!and!Basel!and!the! highlands! between! Zurich! and! St.! Gallen! perfectly! fit! this! characteristic.! By! the! end! of! the! 18th! century! these! two! regions! had! a! solid! protoGindustrial! tradition! in! watchmaking! and! textiles.! This! tradition! has! prominently! contributed! to! the! formation,! maintenance! and! spread! of! craft! skills.!The!savoirHfaire!and!the!erudition!of!the!watchmaker!community!in!Geneva!and!in!the!Jura! Mountains! are! well! known! (Landes! 1979,! p.34‑37).! The! qualification! of! the! textile! workers! in! eastern!Switzerland!and!the!PreGalps!was!probably!simpler,!but!it!was!certainly!an!advantage!for! the!industrializing!textile!industry!in!the!early!19th!century.!! Different! regions’! human! capital! endowment! also! varied! significantly.! Until! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century,! literacy! rates! were! highly! unequal! among! Swiss! regions! and! with! respect! to! gender.! In! the! cities! of! Geneva! and! Lausanne,! literacy! rates! approximated! already! 90%! at! the! end!of!the!18th!century!and!even!in!rural!regions!around!Zurich!80%!of!all!men!were!capable!of! reading! and! writing.! Whereas! in! 1875! the! small,! rural! canton! of! Appenzell! Innerrhoden! still! counted!60%!of!illiterates!among!its!conscripts.!However,!between!1830!and!the!end!of!the!19th! century!inequalities!were!constantly!reduced!(Grunder!2006).! In! sum,! differences! in! regional! endowments! have! been! important! in! many! respects! until! the! midG19th! century.! Thereafter,! disparities! seem! to! have! been! clearly! reduced.! Potential! drivers! behind!this!convergence!were!the!establishment!of!cantonal!banks!(Wetter!1914;!Keller!1937;! Marguerat!2004),!the!Federal!state’s!interest!to!improve!cantonal!school!systems!(Boppart!et!al.! 2008),!market!integration,!and!economic!development!itself.!!

Market)integration) Unfortunately! market! integration! within! Switzerland! has! not! been! studied! in! historical! perspective.!But!transport!history!and!the!history!of!the!formation!of!the!Federal!state!suggest! that! markets! must! have! integrated! rapidly! between! 1850! and! 1910.! The! grain! price! data! presented! by! Chilosi! et! al! (2013)! suggest! that! the! Helvetic! Confederation! was! one! of! the! least! integrated! regions! of! Europe! between! 1620! and! 1835.! But! during! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! the! territories! of! Switzerland! must! have! experienced! rapid! integration.! In! 1848,! the! Helvetic!cantons!have!formed!the!Swiss!Confederation!and!established!a!customs!union!(Humair! 2004).!And!between!1847!and!1920,!a!dense!railway!network!has!been!constructed3.!Transport! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3!See!HGISE!for!international!comparisons!of!railway!networks:!

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historians!have!insisted!on!the!acceleration!of!the!Swiss!transport!system!for!travelling!persons.! Frey!(2006)!has!used!timetable!data!to!illustrate!this.!According!to!his!data!traveling!from!one!of! the!23!largest!cities!of!the!country!to!all!others!took!five!times!less!time!in!1910!than!in!1850.!A! similar! acceleration! occurred! in! travel! times! between! cantonal! capitals! and! among! 63! municipalities! situated! within! 50! km! of! Zurich.! Little! is! known! about! transport! costs! of! goods,! but! it! seems! clear! that! these! costs! must! have! decreased! rapidly! as! well.! An! international! comparison!of!the!market!integration!movement!is!difficult.!But!given!that!the!Helvetic!economy! was!comparatively!weakly!integrated!in!1835!and!that!the!Swiss!railway!network!was!one!of!the! densest! in! Europe! by! 1900! suggests! that! market! integration! was! faster! than! in! other! parts! of! Europe.! During! the! 20th! century! transport! costs! continued! to! fall.! Transportation! was! significantly! accelerated! during! the! second! half! of! the! century,! with! the! democratization! of! the! automobile! and! air! transportation.! The! construction! of! the! highway! network! and! metropolitan! transportation! systems! in! and! around! the! larger! cities! has! accelerated! integration! after! the! 1980s! (Haefeli! 2012).! Fröhlich! et! al! (2006)! have! constructed! a! measure! of! accessibility! by! individual!motorized!transportation!and!by!public!means!for!Swiss!municipalities!from!1950!to! 2000.! Both! measures! increase! significantly,! but! accessibility! by! individual! motorized! transportation! increased! faster.! The! index! rises! by! roughly! 10%! over! 50! years,! which! corresponds! to! one! standard! deviation! of! the! 1950! distribution! of! municipal! accessibility! measures.!The!increase!is!fastest!during!the!first!two!decades!(7%)!and!decelerates!thereafter.! Generally,!in!comparison!to!the!19th!century,!where!transportation!was!accelerated!by!a!factor!of! 5,!market!integration!of!the!twentieth!century!seems!to!have!been!less!dramatic.!! Labor!mobility!at!the!beginning!of!the!21st!century!is!very!high!and!Switzerland!has!engaged!in!a! process! that! the! Federal! statistical! office! calls! “metropolization”.! This! concept! refers! to! the! influence!of!a!few!metropolitan!regions!over!almost!the!entire!country!(Da!Cunha!&!Both!2004).! However,! contemporary! studies! on! regional! disparities! in! unemployment! suggest! that! important!border!effects!remain!along!cantonal!and!linguistic!boundaries!(Feld!&!Savioz!2000;! Brügger!et!al.!2007).!! To!summarize,!market!integration!must!have!been!very!fast!between!1850!and!WWI.!During!the! 20th! century,! integration! has! continued,! although! it! seems! to! have! been! less! dramatic.! In! the! early! 21st! century! federalism! and! culturalGlinguistic! diversity! have! become! a! factor! of! market! fragmentation.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !http://www.europa.udl.cat/contents/transportGinfrastructures/railways/europe/figures/tableG2.! Only! the!UK!and!the!Benelux!countries!have!denser!networks!compared!to!the!size!of!their!country.!However,! this!data!does!not!account!for!the!fact!that!large!parts!of!Switzerland!are!highly!alpine!regions.!


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Urbanization) Fritzsche! (1976)! noted! that! phases! of! accelerated! urbanization! and! phases! of! faster! economic! growth!have!coincided!in!Switzerland.!He!suggested!that!this!relation!should!be!analyzed!more! closely.!But!so!far!no!one!has!done!that.!Table!1!and!figure!1!illustrate!the!correlation!between! urbanization!process!and!GDP!growth.!Columns!1!to!3!show!the!evolution!of!the!total!and!urban! population!and!of!the!urbanization!rate.!Bairoch!(1999)!estimated!that!the!urbanization!rate!of! preGindustrial! societies! laid! between! 7! and! 15%.! Hence! Switzerland! around! 1798! can! be! qualified!as!very!weakly!urbanized.!By!2010,!the!urban!percentage!increased!to!61%,!which!is! still!a!relatively!low!level!in!international!comparison.!Columns!4!and!5!provide!two!measures!of! urbanization! as! a! process.! The! first! one! measures! the! linear! increase! of! the! urbanization! rate.! The!second!measure!accounts!for!the!fact!that!urbanization!rates!have!an!upper!limit,!i.e.!at!high! levels!of!urbanization!there!is!less!scope!for!further!increases!of!the!rate.!Both!measures!suggest! that! the! urbanization! process! was! fast! during! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century,! in! particular! between! 1890! and! 1910,! during! the! postGWWII! boom,! and! during! the! first! decade! of! the! 21st! century.!The!comparison!with!GDP!and!GDP!per!capita!growth!in!columns!6!and!7!reveals!that! Fritzsche’s! observation! was! correct! and! that! the! close! positive! relationship! between! urbanization!and!economic!growth!continues!to!hold!in!the!21st!century!(see!also!figure!1).!The! highly!significant!correlation!coefficients!at!the!bottom!of!table!1!offer!statistical!support!for!the! argument.! However,! the! correlation! between! these! two! phenomena! does! not! provide! any! information! on! the! direction! of! causality.! Agglomeration! might! foster! growth,! or! growth! could! lead! to! agglomeration,! or! the! two! phenomena! might! be! mutually! reGenforcing! and! generate! situations!of!virtuous!or!vicious!cycles.! The!relation!between!agglomeration!and!economic!growth!can!also!be!verified!in!international! perspective.!I!concentrate!on!the!period!1850!to!1910,!which!corresponds!to!Switzerland’s!most! important! growth! and! urbanization! period.! Table! 2! provides! urbanization! rates! and! GDP! per! capita! for! twenty! economies.! Countries! are! ordered! from! fast! to! slow! growers.! Three! stylized! facts! can! be! isolated! from! the! table:! First,! fast! growers! had! lower! urbanization! rates! in! 1850.! Second,!fast!growers!were!not!poorer!initially!than!slow!growers,!i.e.!à!priori!there!was!no!Beta! convergence.!Third,!and!most!importantly,!fast!growth!went!together!with!fast!urbanization.!A! better! understanding! of! these! patterns! necessitates! a! closer! look! at! the! different! countries.! In! the!bottom!of!the!table,!there!are!a!group!of!countries!that!inherited!higher!urbanization!levels! from!preGindustrial!periods.!These!urbanization!levels!were!due!to!a!history!of!intensive!trading! activities,!colonialism,!or!centralized!absolutist!rule,!not!to!industrial!activities.!At!the!top!of!the! table! there! are! countries! that! inherited! less! polarized! urban! networks! from! the! preGindustrial! period.!

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A!simple!theoretical!framework!of!the!spatial!economy!proposed!by!Combes!et!al!(2005)!allows! for! a! better! understanding! of! the! observed! stylized! facts.! Agglomeration! generates! benefits! (agglomeration! economies)! but! also! costs! (crowding! and! congestion).! At! low! levels! of! agglomeration,! marginal! benefits! from! further! agglomeration! are! more! important,! while! marginal! costs! dominate! at! higher! levels.! Under! these! circumstances,! the! countries! that! inherited!higher!urbanization!rates!from!the!preGindustrial!period!faced!higher!marginal!costs!to! agglomeration.! This! was! all! the! more! the! case! as! the! urban! networks! of! these! countries! were! subject! to! a! strong! degree! of! urban! primacy.! As! a! consequence! the! possibilities! for! further! urbanization! were! more! limited! in! these! countries! than! in! countries! with! less! polarized! urbanization!structures.! The! industrial! development! of! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! relied! more! heavily! on! scale! economies! than! the! dominant! technologies! of! earlier! periods.! Industries! that! are! subject! to! stronger! scale! economies! tend! to! be! more! agglomerated.! Hence! fast! growth! during! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! entailed! accelerating! agglomeration.! Countries! with! less! polarized! urbanization!structures!could!engage!more!easily!in!such!a!growth!process.!Hence,!the!countries! that! inherited! more! neutral! urban! networks! from! the! preGindustrial! period! had! a! growth! advantage.! In! sum,! Switzerland! was! part! of! a! group! of! countries! that! inherited! relatively! neutral! spatial! configurations! from! preGindustrial! development,! so! that! industrial! progress! during! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! could! fully! profit! from! the! exploitation! of! agglomeration! economies.! Other!prominent!members!of!this!group!are!the!USA,!Germany,!and!Sweden.!

Regional)specialization) Regional! specialization! is! another! form! of! agglomeration.! The! literature! on! industrial! clusters! has! highlighted! that! regional! specialization! can! significantly! enhance! innovativeness! and! productivity! (Porter! 1990;! Malmberg! &! Maskell! 2006).! Spatial! economics! has! provided! a! number! of! microGfounded! models! for! agglomeration! economies.! Duranton! and! Puga! (2004)! identify!three!types!of!mechanisms:!sharing,!matching,!and!learning.!For!the!case!of!Switzerland,! it! appears! that! almost! all! the! sectors! considered,! at! one! time! or! other! as! Swiss! poles! of! excellence!were!strongly!concentrated!in!certain!areas!of!Switzerland.!This!has!always!been!the! case! for! the! watchGmaking! industry! along! the! western! border! between! Geneva! and! Neuchâtel.! The!19th–!and!20th–century!cotton!industry!was!located!mainly!in!eastern!Switzerland,!and!the! silk! industry! located! mainly! in! Basel! and! to! a! lesser! extent! in! Zurich.! Embroidery! was! heavily! localized!around!Sankt!Gallen!and!the!chemical!industry!developed!mainly!in!Basel!and!Geneva! (Fritzsche!et!al.!2001).!In!the!20th!century,!banking!activities!concentrated!mainly!in!Zurich!and! Geneva,! while! Basel! has! lost! much! of! its! importance! (Schuler! 2007).! Numerous! studies! have!


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investigated! individual! clusters! and! highlighted! the! high! skill! and! technology! levels,! as! well! as! the!particular!flexibility!to!react!to!changes!in!the!global!economy!(Landes(1979;(Landes(1987;( Veyrassat( 1997;( Veyrassat( 1995;( KarrerGRüedi& 1992;& Pasquier& 2008).! However,! no! study! has! attempted!to!quantify!the!impact!of!clusters!and!localization!economies!on!regional!and!national! economic!growth.!! ! To! summarize,! geographical! approaches! to! the! Swiss! economy! have! put! a! lot! of! emphasis! on! regional! disparities! in! factor! endowments! and! resulting! differences! of! technical! systems! (technology,! organization).! Individual! industrial! clusters! have! also! retained! a! lot! of! interest.! Usually! the! concentration! of! an! industry! is! seen! to! have! increased! the! innovativeness! and! expertise!within!these!clusters.!Much!less!is!known!about!the!impact!of!market!integration!and! urbanization.! Generally,! these! studies! have! focused! on! one! or! a! few! regions! only! and! the! approach! has! been! mainly! qualitative.! In! order! to! evaluate! the! impact! of! spatial! structures! on! economic! growth,! one! should! analyze! data! that! covers! all! regions! and! provide! a! quantitative! measure!of!these!effects.!This!is!the!purpose!of!the!present!thesis.!

Sources'of'Swiss'economic'growth' Little!is!known!about!Swiss!economic!growth.!Data!on!Swiss!GDP!is!highly!fragmented!and!the! available!longGterm!series!are!contradictory.!What!is!known!is!that!today!Switzerland!is!among! the!most!affluent!economies!in!the!world.!But!it!is!not!really!clear,!when!Switzerland!has!become! rich.!The!literature!on!Swiss!economic!development!has!focused!mainly!on!qualitative!aspects,! while!quantitative!features,!such!as!economic!growth!and!measurement!of!growth!factors!have! been!neglected.!Instead!a!number!of!opinions!and!rumors!about!the!causes!of!Swiss!wealth!have! spurred.!But!rarely!the!exact!impact!of!these!sources!has!been!measured!or!tested.!Among!these! alleged! sources! one! can! find! an! assumed! extraordinary! ability! of! Swiss! entrepreneurs,! the! protestant!ethic,!the!Swiss!banks,!and!different!institutional!elements.!I!argue!that!market!access! seems!to!be!the!most!powerful!explanatory!factor!of!Swiss!growth.!

Swiss)banks) Popular!wisdom!has!it!that!Switzerland!is!rich!because!of!its!banks.!However,!the!link!between! financial! development! and! economic! growth! is! an! open! question,! in! particular! in! Switzerland! (Marguerat!1993).!It!is!true!that!Switzerland!has!had!a!long!history!of!banking!activities.!Since! the! 15th! century,! there! have! been! financiers! with! strong! connections! to! international! capital! markets! in! Geneva! and! other! Swiss! cities.! But! their! activities! have! not! irrigated! the! Helvetic! economy.!In!fact,!national!capital!markets!remained!rather!fragmented!until!the!end!of!the!19th! century.!The!rise!of!Switzerland!to!a!financial!center!of!international!importance!occurred!in!two!

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phases:! between! 1914! and! 1929,! Swiss! banks! caught! up! with! their! French! and! German! competitors! and! between! 1945! and! 1973,! the! Swiss! financial! sector! became! a! global! player.! Until! today! Swiss! banks! have! managed! to! remain! leaders! in! the! segment! of! private! portfolio! management.!These!wellGknown!international!activities!were!the!exclusive!endeavor!of!a!few!big! universal!banks!(which!were!originally!founded!for!the!financing!of!the!Swiss!railway!network! during!the!second! half!of!the!19th!century)! and! a! group!of!private!banks!(notably!the! Genevan! banker!families!that!can!be!traced!back!all!the!way!to!the!beginning!of!the!18th!century).!Local! and! cantonal! banks! controlled! the! domestic! capital! markets! until! 1970,! when! the! big! banks! finally! decided! to! become! more! present! on! the! national! and! regional! markets! of! Switzerland.! Most!of!the!cantonal!and!local!banks!have!been!founded!between!1820!and!the!end!of!the!19th! century4.! There!are!two!ways!through!which!the!financial!sector!can!contribute!to!economic!growth.!First,! the!financial!sector!generates!value!added!that!contributes!to!GDP;!Second,!the!financial!sector! can!support!capital!formation,!which!contributes!to!growth!in!a!second!stage.!! BAK! Basel! (2013)! has! estimated! the! value! added! contribution! of! the! financial! sector! to! total! value!added!in!2012!at!15%.!This!estimate!includes!demand!generated!in!other!sectors!through! intermediate! inputs! and! employees! incomes! and! refers! to! the! banking! and! insurance! sectors! taken! together.! The! same! report! also! suggests! that! the! weight! of! the! financial! sector! has! been! strongly! rising! since! 1990.! This! clearly! highlights! that! there! has! been! much! more! to! the! Swiss! economy!than!banks,!particularly!in!periods!before!1990.!! How!about!the!contribution!of!the!financial!sector!to!capital!formation?!This!question!is!difficult! to!answer!at!the!current!state!of!research.!We!know!that!early!industrialization!occurred!largely! without! the! help! of! financial! intermediates.! SelfGfinance! was! the! main! source! of! capital! before! 1830!(Veyrassat!1982;!Dudzik!1987,!p.280‑281).!Thereafter!capital!formation!accelerated.!! Two!segments!can!be!distinguished:!large!infrastructure!and!big!business!on!the!one!hand,!small! and!medium!sized!enterprises!on!the!other.!Little!is!known!about!the!financing!of!investments!in! the! latter! segment.! If! any! financial! intermediates! were! important! in! this! segment,! these! were! certainly! the! local! and! cantonal! banks.! Wetter! and! Keller! noted! the! industrial! engagement! of! local!banks!(Wetter!1914;!Keller!1937).!The!activities!of!the!cantonal!banks!were!very!diverse! since!they!depended!very!much!on!the!structure!of!the!cantonal!economy.!It!is!therefore!hard!to! propose!a!general!statement!(Marguerat!2004,!p.117).!But!a!few!case!studies!have!been!carried! out!concerning!the!interwar!crisis,!when!certain!cantonal!banks!intervened!massively!in!favor!of! their! local! industries! (Froidevaux! 2000a;! Froidevaux! 2000b;! Perrenoud! 1993).! However,! it! is! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4!For!a!history!of!Swiss!banking!in!the!very!long!run!see!Cassis!(1997)!and!Bergier!(1984,!p.301‑317).!A!

recent!and!comprehensive!study!on!the!evolution!of!Swiss!finance!since!1890!is!provided!by!Mazbouri!et! al.!(2012).!


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legitimate! to! ask! if! this! intervention! was! beneficial! or! counterproductive.! In! the! short! term,! it! has!probably!helped!to!reduce!unemployment.!But!in!the!long!run,!the!intervention!might!have! contributed! to! maintain! nonGcompetitive! firms! and! slowGdown! the! adjustment! of! industrial! structure!(Marguerat!2004,!p.124‑125).!! The! other! segment! of! industrial! finance! concerns! first! of! all! the! railway! construction! and! electrification.!These!infrastructures!have!played!a!key!role!in!the!modernization!of!Switzerland! (Veyrassat!2008).!A!number!of!Swiss!investment!banks!have!been!founded!for!the!financing!of! the!railway!construction.!They!were!crucial!for!the!financing!of!the!first!railway!boom!from!1850! to!1870.!But!between!the!1875!crisis!and!1910,!French!and!German!banks!played!a!central!role! (Bouvier!1956;!Walter!1982).!In!1898,!when!the!railway!companies!started!to!be!bought!up!by! the!Swiss!Federal!state,!Swiss!banks!formed!a!cartel!in!order!to!defend!the!national!bond!market! against!the!foreign!banks! (Mazbouri!et!al.!2012,!p.480‑481).!But!it!was!not!before!1909,!when! the!newly!formed!Swiss!National!Bank!started!to!actively!regulate!national!capital!markets,!that! the!loans!of!the!Federal!state!started!to!be!issued!on!the!Swiss!market!(Walter!1982,!p.447).!The! impact! of! the! big! banks! on! capital! formation! in! Switzerland! during! the! 20th! century! is! more! difficult!to!assess.!However,!we!know!that!these!banks!main!activities!concentrated!on!foreign! markets.!Also!their!commercial!activities!were!rather!limited:!in!1947,!Swiss!banks!held!only!3%! of!industrial!shares!in!their!portfolios,!which!is!a!very!low!proportion!compared!to!the!30G50%! in!the!portfolios!of!the!big!German!banks.!The!activities!of!the!big!Swiss!banks!do!not!indicate! that!they!followed!a!particular!policy!with!respect!to!any!industrial!sector!as!it!has!been!the!case! of!the!German!banks!(Marguerat!1993).!! Banks! were! not! the! only! financial! intermediates! active! in! infrastructure! and! big! business.! Holding! companies! were! already! the! preferred! instrument! to! finance! urban! gas! supply! before! 1870!but!they!became!very!important!in!the!context!of!electrical!engineering.!As!a!side!effect!of! the! German! Unternehmergeschäft! a! wave! of! foundations! of! such! Electrobanks! occurred! in! Switzerland! during! the! 1890s.! However,! most! of! these! finance! companies! invested! allover! Europe!but!in!Switzerland!and,!in!most!cases,!German!not!Swiss!firms!provided!the!engineering! part!(Paquier!2001).!Swiss!electronics!companies!had!trouble!finding!capital!in!Switzerland,!so! that!BBC!the!only!Swiss!company!engaging!in!the!Unternehmergeschäft!had!to!resort!to!German! finance! (Paquier! 1993).! As! far! as! the! electrification! of! Switzerland! is! concerned! holding! companies!are!unimportant.!At!the!end!of!the!19th!century!water,!gas,!and!electricity!provision! have! become! public! services.! Swiss! electrification! was! therefore! financed! by! the! cantons.! The! exact! sources! of! capital! for! these! investments! are! unknown! but! probably! the! cantonal! banks! played!an!important!role!(Paquier!2000).!! In! the! 20th! century! holding! companies! mainly! served! the! goal! to! expand! activities! outside! of! Switzerland.!Between!1910!and!1914,!Swiss!industrialists!created!holding!companies!in!order!to!

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establish!subGbranches!abroad.!During!the!interwar!period!another!wave!of!holding!foundations! ensued.! This! was! essentially! a! form! of! capital! flight! from! Germany! through! Swiss! holding! companies! into! industrial! projects! in! eastern! Europe! (Paquier! 2001).! The! strategy! to! form! holdings!for!the!purpose!of!expanding!activities!abroad!became!a!common!practice!during!the! second! half! of! the! 20th! century! and! the! favorable! conditions! for! holding! companies! in! Switzerland! attracted! the! headquarters! of! a! large! number! of! foreign! multinationals! to! Switzerland!(Müller!2012).!! To! conclude,! the! popular! wisdom! that! Switzerland! is! rich! because! of! its! banks! is! certainly! exaggerated.!The!banking!sector!itself!and!even!its!indirect!value!added!effect!cannot!account!for! more!than!15%!of!total!GDP.!The!contribution!to!capital!formation!was!also!limited.!The!private! banks!and!the!big!banks!privileged!activities!in!international!markets.!Local!and!cantonal!banks! have!been!more!devoted!to!the!national!economy.!However,!some!of!their!interventions!in!favor! of! local! industries! might! well! have! been! counterproductive! in! the! sense! that! they! helped! maintain!uncompetitive!structures.!Generally,!the!role!of!the!financial!sector!for!Swiss!growth!in! the! long! run! is! unclear! at! the! current! state! of! research,! but! it! seems! implausible! that! financial! development!was!the!main!explanatory!factor!of!Switzerland’s!wealth.!!

The)protestant)ethic) According! to! Weber’s! original! hypothesis! the! protestant! ethic! enhanced! the! development! of! capitalism! in! two! ways:! ascetic! life! has! contributed! to! a! more! professional! work! ethic! and! to! more! savings! enhancing! thereby! the! capital! accumulation! process! (Weber! 1905).! In! the! introductory! chapter,! Weber! also! notes! that! Protestants! are! overrepresented! among! the! students! in! higher! education! and! that! they! tend! to! choose! more! professionalizing! studies! than! Catholics! (Weber! 1905).! In! other! words,! Protestantism! might! have! a! positive! effect! on! three! production!factors:!labor,!capital,!and!human!capital.! The$protestant$work$ethic$ For! the! case! of! Switzerland,! the! protestant! work! ethic! has! often! been! made! allusion! to! as! a! virtue:!Keller!and!Nordmann,!Stucki,!Breiding!and!Schwarz!are!convinced!that!the!Swiss!have!an! exceptional! work! ethic! (Keller! 1937;! Stucki! 1970;! Breiding! &! Schwarz! 2011).! Bergier! (1984,! p.184)! characterizes! the! Swiss! workforce! as! “technically! and! morally! qualified”! –! however! without!explicitly!attributing!the!moral!qualification!to!Protestantism!nor!being!more!explicit!on! what! “morally! qualified”! means.! Straumann! (2010,! p.7)! identifies! the! good! work! ethic! and! entrepreneurship! in! the! protestant! cities! as! a! Swiss! virtue.! However,! none! of! these! studies! provides!any!convincing!evidence!that!the!Swiss!work!ethic!was!really!so!exceptional,!nor!does! any!study!show!that!the!work!ethic!was!less!virtuous!in!the!catholic!regions!of!Switzerland.!The! evolution!of!the!Swiss!work!ethic!during!the!20th!century!has!been!analyzed!by!Lalive!d’Epinay!


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(1991,!p.17‑32)!in!a!qualitative!study.!Different!mythological!foundations!underlie!the!discourse! about!work!in!Switzerland:!these!are!not!only!of!protestant!and!biblical!origin,!but!rely!also!on! St.! Benedict’s! rule,! philosophers! of! the! Enlightenment,! and! Greek! mythology.! A! quantitative! analysis!evaluating!the!role!of!the!work!ethic!for!growth!has!not!been!attempted!yet.!! Protestantism,$capital,$entrepreneurship,$and$technology$ The!protestant!immigration!was!an!important!channel!for!technology!transfers!into!Switzerland.! Bodmer! (1946)! has! extensively! documented! the! entrepreneurial! activities! of! protestant! immigrants!in!the!15th!and!16th!centuries.!Between!1550!and!1575,!French!and!predominantly! Italian! refugees! introduced! the! silk! industry! in! Geneva,! Zurich,! and! Basel,! which! was! significantly! expanded! during! the! last! quarter! of! the! century! by! a! new! cohort! of! Italian! immigrants!from!Lucca.!Protestant!refugees!also!initiated!the!passementerie!and!introduced!the! puttingGout! system! in! the! wool! industry.! In! Basle! and! Geneva! they! had! a! significant! impact! on! book! printing.! By! the! early! 17th! century! the! protestant! silk! merchants! in! Geneva! had! accumulated!large!amounts!of!capital!and!started!to!concentrate!on!banking!activities,!while!the! silk! industry! declined.! Huguenot! immigrants! from! several! regions! of! France! introduced! watchmaking! in! Geneva! during! the! early! 16th! century;! watchmakers! from! Italy! and! Flanders! followed! constituting! a! wide! variety! of! sources! of! technology.! During! the! ThirtyGyears! war! immigration! affected! rather! the! German! speaking! cities.! Alsatian! migrants! significantly! expanded! the! silk! ribbon! and! dyeing! industry! in! Basle.! Refugees! also! started! to! dominate! the! production!of!accessories!such!as!hats,!buttons!and!the!whole!leather!industry.!The!migrants!of! the!second!wave!of!Huguenot!refugees!after!1685!found!a!more!restrictive!immigration!policy! and! more! protective! guild! regulations! in! the! larger! Swiss! cities.! The! economic! impact! of! this! movement!was!therefore!more!limited.!However,!refugees!have!introduced!several!crafts!in!the! smaller! towns! of! the! French! speaking! regions.! And! they! have! contributed! to! the! expansion! of! calico!printing!in!Neuchâtel.!! How! important! was! protestant! immigration! for! capital! accumulation?! Undisputedly,! these! entrepreneurs! have! accumulated! important! amounts! of! capital! and! eventually! some! of! them! have! become! bankers! and! financiers! exclusively.! But,! as! has! been! mentioned,! the! financial! activities! of! the! International! Huguenot! was! oriented! toward! foreign! capital! markets! and! irrigated!the!national!economy!only!to!a!limited!extent!(Bergier!1984,!p.310).!However,!whether! profits!were!reinvested!in!the!country!or!placed!abroad,!they!provided!an!important!incentive!to! search! for! new! opportunities! for! profit! outside! guild! regulations! and! eventually! triggered! an! economic! and! social! modernization! process! establishing! confidence! in! progress! and! economic! success! (Siegenthaler! 1982).! Even! if! protestant! immigrants! formed! an! essential! part! of! this! emerging! entrepreneurial! class,! it! is! difficult! to! show! that! the! technical! knowledge! and! wealth! that!they!accumulated!before!and!during!their!exile!was!the!consequence!of!the!protestant!ethic!

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and!not!some!other!characteristic!like!education!or!social!status!correlated!with!the!propensity! of!conversion!to!Protestantism.!! Protestantism$and$human$capital$ The! research! on! Protestantism’s! impact! on! human! capital! has! relied! on! more! quantitative! sources,!allowing!for!a!clearer!assessment!of!the!different!effects.!Between!1875!and!1903!the! Swiss! army! has! carried! out! several! pedagogical! examinations! of! conscripts.! These! tests! evaluated!skills!in!reading,!numeracy,!writing,!and!knowledge!about!Swiss!history.!Boppart!et!al! (2008)! use! this! exceptional! database! to! measure! the! effect! of! religious! denomination! on! educational! attainment! at! the! district! level.! Their! results! suggest! that! religious! denomination! affected!educational!attainment!through!three!channels:!absenteeism,!home!support,!and!public! expenditure!for!schooling.!Catholicism!has!a!positive!effect!on!absenteeism!but!a!negative!effect! on! home! support! and! expenditure.! At! the! bottom! line,! conscripts! from! predominantly! catholic! districts! performed! worse! than! those! of! predominantly! protestant! ones.! However,! all! effects! diminish!with!economic!development!and!become!insignificant!if!controls!for!conservatism!are! included.! This! suggests! that! religion! had! an! impact! only! in! conservative! milieu! and! below! a! certain! level! of! development.! Another! study! (Boppart! et! al.! 2011)! shows! that! Protestants! laid! particular!importance!on!reading!(the!bible)!but!that!Protestantism!had!also!a!significant!impact! on!writing,!numeracy,!and!knowledge!in!history.!! In!short,!Protestantism!could!have!had!an!impact!on!economic!growth!through!the!work!ethic,! entrepreneurship,! technology! transfers,! capital! accumulation,! and! human! capital! formation.! However,!so!far!there!is!little!convincing!evidence!on!the!exceptionality!of!the!Swiss!work!ethic! and! an! eventual! link! to! religion.! The! effect! via! capital! formation! operated! only! in! conservative! contexts! and! must! therefore! be! relativized.! But! protestant! entrepreneurs! have! significantly! contributed! to! technology! transfers! and! capital! accumulation,! although! a! large! part! of! the! accumulated! capital! was! invested! abroad.! However,! it! is! hard! to! evaluate! to! what! extent! the! action!of!those!entrepreneurs!was!due!to!the!Protestant!ethic.!

Stability) Stability! is! commonly! held! to! be! a! virtue! of! the! Swiss! political! and! economic! system.! Three! spheres! can! be! identified! in! the! literature! with! respect! to! stability:! The! first! one,! external! relations,! includes! neutrality! and! the! nonGparticipation! in! wars.! The! second! sphere! can! be! labeled! “the! Swiss! variety! of! capitalism”! and! includes! corporatist! conflict! resolution,! peaceful! labor!relations,!and!consensusGoriented!politics.!The!third!sphere!concerns!fiscal!and!monetary! stability.! These! three! domains! are! not! strictly! independent! of! each! other,! but! for! the! sake! of! clarity!I!will!treat!them!separately.!


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Peace$and$neutrality$ Several! authors! mention! peace! as! an! essential! ingredient! for! Swiss! growth.! This! argument! is! mainly! advanced! for! the! 20th! century.! For! Halbeisen! et! al.! (2012)! Switzerland’s! nonG participation!in!armed!conflict!during!the!two!world!wars!helped!to!avoid!destruction!as!well!as! the!social!costs!related!to!war.!For!Bernegger!(1990)!and!Straumann!(2010),!stability!and!nonG involvement!in!wars!were!essential!for!the!development!of!the!financial!sector.!As!Mazbouri!et! al.! (2012)! show,! the! Swiss! financial! sector! profited! even! from! war! because! Swiss! banks! and! insurances!could!remain!active!on!all!markets!and!Swiss!stock!exchanges!remained!accessible!to! all! parties.! Swiss! banks! and! insurances! also! took! over! positions! from! British! and! American! competitors! that! had! to! pull! out! of! the! German! market.! Breiding! and! Schwarz! (2011)! argue! somewhat!awkwardly!that!neutrality!is!an!“advantage!for!the!handling!of!delicate!deals”.!Paquier! (1993;!2001)!identifies!neutrality!as!one!cause!among!others!for!Switzerland’s!attractiveness!for! holding!companies!in!the!late!19th!and!early!20th!century:!by!passing!through!holding!companies! in!neutral!countries!German!firms!had!access!to!French!capital.!And!even!further!back!in!time,! Breiding! and! Schwarz! (2011)! see! the! immigration! of! Huguenot! refugees! in! relation! to! the! Helvetic!neutrality!policy.! Some!of!these!arguments!must!be!relativized.!Protestant!immigration!was!probably!not!so!much! linked! to! neutrality! but! rather! to! the! preexistence! of! a! protestant! community.! Huguenots! fled! also!to!the!Low!Countries,!England,!Scotland,!Prussia,!and!other!countries!that!were!not!neutral.! Adopting! a! more! longGterm! perspective! and! comparing! the! history! of! neutrality! with! Switzerland’s!longGrun!development!trajectory!helps!to!relativize!as!well.!Interestingly!enough,! the! only! period,! when! neutrality! was! abandoned! G! during! the! Helvetic! Revolution! –! coincided! with! early! industrialization! and! mechanization! of! cotton! spinning! between! 1800! and! 1815! (Dudzik!1987,!p.64‑102)!and!with!the!expansion!phase!of!the!first!Kondratieff!cycle!(Beck!1983,! p.47).! Apparently,! the! Helvetic! Revolution! and! the! abandonment! of! neutrality! have! not! discouraged! investments! in! construction! and! new! technology.! On! the! contrary,! the! revolution! has! probably! spurred! progressive! thought! and! eliminated! corporatist! regulations.! The! conflict! (and!the!continental!blocus)!made!imports!of!English!yarn!impossible!and!provided!thereby!an! impetus!to!economic!development!(Walter!2009a).!The!nonGinvolvement!in!the!two!world!wars! has! obviously! prevented! human! loss,! destruction,! and! other! war! related! costs.! However,! it! is! hard! to! know! what! exactly! the! counterfactual! situation! would! have! looked! like! and! how! the! Swiss!growth!trajectory!would!have!been!affected.!! The$Swiss$variety$of$capitalism$ The! second! sphere! of! stability! concerns! the! Swiss! variety! of! capitalism,! which! includes! corporatism,! peaceful! labor! relations,! and! consensusGoriented! politics.! Most! of! these! factors! have! developed! in! the! late! 19th! century! or! later,! while! their! institutionalization! is! mainly! an!

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achievement! of! the! 20th! century.! The! emergence! of! corporatist! practices! goes! back! to! the! last! quarter! of! the! 19th! century,! when! falling! transport! costs! led! to! increasing! integration! in! world! markets! and! certain! sectors! of! the! Swiss! economy! were! hardly! hit! by! the! long! international! depression.! The! combined! effect! of! higher! exposition! to! international! competition! and! resurgence! of! protectionism! in! Switzerland’s! main! trading! partner! countries! led! to! the! formation! of! interest! groups! that! called! for! a! more! active! economic! policy! of! the! Swiss! federal! state,!particularly!in!the!form!of!a!protectionist!trade!policy!(Humair!2004).!In!the!20th!century! the! systematic! compensation! and! protection! of! sectors! that! didn’t! participate! in! the! exportG oriented! growth! process! has! become! the! norm! (Bernegger! 1990).! Finally,! in! 1947,! the! participation! of! interest! groups! in! the! legislative! process! was! fixed! in! the! constitution! (Kriesi! 1998,!p.245‑277).! Peaceful!labor!relations!are!often!seen!as!being!almost!a!part!of!the!Swiss!identity.!But!in!fact!a! pacification! of! industrial! relations! has! developed! only! gradually! between! the! late! 1930s! and! 1950.! The! period! of! rapid! development! between! 1890! and! 1914! is! characterized! by! very! intensive!strike!activity;!the!immediate!postGWWI!period!witnessed!a!number!of!local!and!one! national! general! strike;! and! the! famous! 1937! peace! agreement! of! the! machine! and! metal! industry,! which! is! often! understood! as! the! origin! of! the! Swiss! variety! of! social! partnership,! concerned! only! 50’000! workers! in! 156! companies.! Employers! of! most! sectors! accepted! trade! unions!as!legitimate!negotiation!partners!only!after!the!last!wave!of!strikes!between!1945!and! 1948! and! collective! agreements! covered! around! 45%! of! all! workers! only! in! 1951.! However,! collective!agreements!have!never!covered!more!than!50%!of!the!work!force,!which!is!a!relatively! low! level! compared! to! Scandinavian! countries! and! Austria.! Social! partnership! has! therefore! a! weaker!practical!importance!in!Switzerland!than!in!other!corporatist!countries!(Degen!2012).! The!political!stability!of!Switzerland!is!related!to!direct!democracy,!federalism,!and!consensusG oriented!political!procedures.!Direct!democratic!rights!provide!the!citizens!with!the!possibility! to!participate!directly!in!the!political!decision!making!process.!While!the!Federal!constitution!of! 1848! imposed! only! a! (compulsory)! referendum! for! changes! of! the! constitution! itself,! direct! democratic! rights! have! been! expanded! regularly! until! the! beginning! of! the! 21st! century.! The! most! important! expansions! were! the! introduction! of! the! facultative! referendum! (in! 1874),! which!provided!the!possibility!to!oblige!a!ballot!on!any!law!decided!by!the!parliament;!and!the! Initiative!(1891),!which!allows!proposing!any!modification!of!the!legal!apparatus.!Most!cantons! have!also!introduced!such!direct!democratic!rights,!some!as!early!as!the!1830s.!Many!cantonal! constitutions! enact! a! compulsory! referendum! on! fiscal! affaires,! i.e.! tax! rates! and/or! public! budgets!and!deficits!must!be!accepted!in!a!popular!vote!(Gross!2013).!Since!WWII!initiatives!and! referenda! have! become! much! more! accessible! and! they! have! been! utilized! much! more! frequently.!In!1974,!the!necessary!30’000!signatures!corresponded!to!roughly!5%!of!all!voters,!


37!

whereas! in! 1978! the! necessary! 50’000! signatures! represented! only! 1.3%! of! the! voting! population!(Degen!2011).! The! contestability,! which! is! brought! into! the! political! system! through! direct! democratic! rights! has!led!to!the!development!of!consensusGbuilding!procedures!and!a!systematic!integration!of!all! major!political!parties.!These!institutions!have!come!to!be!known!as!the!Konkordanzdemokratie.! Proportional!representation!and!the!systematic!consultation!of!interest!groups!and!cantons!are! essential! elements! of! the! Konkordanzdemokratie! (Morandi! 2008).! Proportional! voting! systems! have! been! introduced! in! several! cantons! already! between! 1890! and! WWI! and! for! the! lower! chamber!of!the!federal!parliament!in!1918!(Gilg!2012).!But!the!liberal!Freisinnig!Demokratische! Partei! nonetheless! managed! to! dominate! the! federal! government! (Bundesrat)! from! the! foundation! of! the! federal! state! in! 1848! until! the! 1950s.! Only! since! 1959! the! large! coalition! government!including!bourgeois,!conservative,!and!socialist!parties!(Zauberformel)!has!become! a!

respected!

tradition!

(Kriesi!

1998,!

p.226‑244).!

The!

second!

element!

of!

the!

Konkordanzdemokratie! is! constituted! of! a! series! of! consensus! building! procedures! that! were! gradually! introduced! in! the! legislative! process.! These! procedures! and! commissions! reunite! experts,!representatives!of!important!interest!groups,!parties,!and!cantons!in!order!to!establish!a! large!consensus!(Kriesi!1998,!p.187‑192).!As!we!have!seen,!consultation!of!interest!groups!goes! back!to!the!late!19th!century.!But,!the!inclusion!of!a!large!variety!of!interest!groups!and!parties,! in! particular! the! trade! unions! and! the! socialist! party,! has! established! only! after! the! late! 1930s! and! was! fixed! in! the! constitution! in! 1947.! Since! then,! the! soGcalled! Vernehmlassungsverfahren! gives! the! opportunity! to! all! interest! groups! to! comment! on! legislative! projects! before! they! are! voted! by! the! two! parliamentary! chambers! (Hangartner! 2001).! Nevertheless,! even! after! 1947,! employers’! associations! continued! to! be! much! more! involved! in! extraGparliamentary! commissions! than! trade! unions,! particularly! in! the! earliest! nonGpublic! stages! of! the! legislative! process!when!the!projects!are!elaborated!(Germann!1981).!! David! and! Mach! (2006)! argue! that! the! compensation! mechanisms! of! the! Swiss! system! have! limited! the! social! fragmentation! contributing! thereby! to! an! egalitarian! wealth! distribution! and! stability.!Egalitarian!wealth!distributions!and!stability,!they!argue,!are!growth!enhancing.!Weder! and!Weder!(2009)!argue!that!direct!democracy!and!federalism!have!increased!contestability!and! competition!in!Switzerland,!so!that!governments!had!to!be!more!efficient.!Borner!(2004),!on!the! other!hand,!argues!that!direct!democracy!introduces!a!status!quo!bias!into!Swiss!policyGmaking.! Therefore! he! sees! direct! democracy! rather! as! an! obstacle! to! reforms! and! a! negative! growth! factor.!A!similar!argument!was!advanced!by!Knöpfel!(1988).!None!of!these!studies!provides!any! empirical! evidence.! At! best! the! argumentation! is! based! on! a! heuristic! model! and! a! historical! description! of! the! Swiss! development! trajectory! during! a! particular! period.! Feld! and! Savioz! (1997)! provide! some! statistical! evidence! for! a! possible! positive! effect! of! direct! democracy! on!

38!


economic! performance.! They! estimate! an! aggregate! production! function! including! direct! democracy! as! a! technological! factor,! which! turns! out! to! have! a! significant! positive! effect.! However,!their!analysis!relies!on!the!1989!crossGsection!of!only!26!cantons!and!does!not!provide! any!information!on!the!longGterm!development!of!Switzerland.!Also,!the!proposed!specification! focuses!on!the!cantonal!GDP!level,!rather!than!on!its!growth!rate.!! In! short,! the! Swiss! variety! of! capitalism! is! often! seen! as! a! virtuous! and! growth! enhancing! institutional!setting.!But!convincing!evidence!for!this!argument!is!lacking!so!far.!! Monetary$and$fiscal$stability$ The!third!sphere!of!stability!concerns!monetary!and!fiscal!policy.!During!the!19th!century!neither! the!federal!state!nor!the!cantons!had!the!means!to!conduct!an!active!monetary!or!fiscal!policy.! But! during! the! 20th! century! monetary! stability! and! balanced! public! budgets! have! always! been! the!top!priority!of!economic!policy!making.!Halbeisen!and!Straumann!(2012,!p.988‑991)!provide! a! comparison! of! monetary! stability! of! several! small! European! countries! in! the! 20th! century.! Switzerland!turns!out!to!have!had!the!lowest!inflation!over!the!whole!century.!The!Swiss!franc! more! than! doubled! its! value! in! US! dollars,! while! the! Dutch! guilder! gained! only! 20%! and! the! currencies! of! Denmark,! Sweden,! and! Norway! lost! approximately! half! of! their! value.! Gold! and! currency!reserves!expanded!at!the!fastest!rate!in!Switzerland.!While!official!discount!rates!and! returns! on! public! loans! were! always! the! lowest.! Clearly,! Switzerland! was! the! country! with! the! highest!monetary!and!fiscal!stability.! How!has!monetary!and!fiscal!stability!influenced!economic!growth?!Attributing!the!top!priority! to! monetary! and! fiscal! stability! constrained! the! options! in! other! domains! notably! growth! and! tradeGcycle! policies.! After! WWI,! Switzerland! was! one! of! the! first! countries! to! restore! preGwar! parity! (in! 1924).! This! deflationary! policy! was! accompanied! by! a! series! of! compensation! mechanisms:!subsidies!to!agriculture,!watch!making,!and!embroidery;!and!an!active!trade!policy! combining! trade! agreements! with! several! countries! on! the! one! hand! and! increased! protectionism! on! the! other! hand! (Halbeisen! &! Straumann! 2012,! p.1002‑1008).! As! shown! by! Rosenkranz!et!al.!(2014)!the!combination!of!deflationary!policy!and!corporatist!regulations!that! introduce! price! rigidities! is! particularly! harmful! for! growth.! Accordingly,! the! postGwar! period! was!marked!by!soaring!unemployment!as!well!as!social!conflict!(Müller!et!al.!2012,!p.138;!Degen! 2012,! p.885‑888).! The! recession! of! the! early! 1920s! tended! to! be! stronger! in! countries! that! adopted!a!deflationary!policy!(Ritschl!&!Straumann!2010,!p.165).!! During! the! Great! Depression! Swiss! National! Bank! was! eager! to! return! to! the! preGwar! gold! exchange!rate!even!after!all!other!countries!had!devaluated!their!currencies.!This!policy!implied! enormous!deflationary!pressure!and!prolonged!the!depression!until!1936,!when!the!Swiss!franc! was! finally! devaluated.! As! Ritschl! and! Straumann! (2010,! p.171)! show,! countries! that! were! off!


39!

the!gold!standard!registered!higher!growth!during!the!1930s.!Rosenkranz!et!al!(2014)!provide! statistical!evidence!that!the!decision!to!stay!on!gold!has!significantly!prolonged!the!Depression.!! During! the! 1970s! Switzerland! conducted! again! a! monetarist! policy! implying! budgetary! discipline!and!strict!regulation!of!the!monetary!mass.!This!translated!into!an!appreciation!of!the! Swiss! franc,! which! handicapped! the! export! industry,! and! an! extremely! hard! recession.! This! policy!was!viable!only!because!the!employment!contraction!was!almost!entirely!absorbed!by!the! reduction!of!the!number!of!foreign!workers!and!by!women!who!retired!from!the!labor!market.! Generally,! since! the! adoption! of! flexible! exchange! rates,! the! stabilityGoriented! monetary! policy! translated! into! regular! appreciation! of! the! Swiss! franc! and! to! an! extremely! high! price! level! (Halbeisen! &! Straumann! 2012,! p.1052‑1058).! The! overvalued! Swiss! franc! and! the! high! price! level!may!well!have!reduced!the!competitivity!of!Swiss!exports!and!depressed!consumption.! ! To! conclude,! evidence! for! the! stability! argument! is! weak.! In! fact,! different! elements! seem! to! indicate!that!the!institutional!arrangement!discussed!in!this!section!had!a!rather!negative!impact! on!economic!growth!and!development.!The!Swiss!industrial!revolution!was!launched!precisely! in! the! period! marked! by! the! Helvetic! Revolution,! French! occupation,! and! abandonment! of! neutrality.! The! usage! of! direct! democratic! rights,! corporatist! regulations,! the! Konkordanzdemokratie,! and! peaceful! labor! relations! were! strongest! after! 1960.! This! period,! however,! is! market! by! an! important! growth! slack! of! the! Swiss! economy! (Kehoe! &! Ruhl! 2005;! Borner!2004).!Fiscal!and!monetary!stability!was!probably!exaggerated!as!well,!particularly!the! 1930s! and! the! 1970s! crisis! were! prolonged! unnecessarily! by! monetarist! rigidity.! After! the! adoption! of! flexible! exchange! rates,! monetarist! policymaking! has! put! continuous! upward! pressure!on!the!Swiss!franc!and!thereby!undermined!export!competitivity.!The!combination!of! deflationary! policies! with! corporatist! regulations! that! lead! to! price! rigidities! is! particularly! harmful!for!economic!growth!(Rosenkranz!et!al.!2014).!

Market)access) Market! access! is! certainly! the! most! powerful! explanatory! factor! of! Swiss! growth.! In! the! Swiss! historiography,! market! access! has! often! been! subsumed! under! the! label! of! “openness”.! Many! studies! have! mentioned! the! openness! of! the! Swiss! economy! in! one! way! or! another.! Two! perspectives! can! be! distinguished:! The! first,! more! general,! perspective! concerns! the! way! openness! affects! the! accumulation! of! production! factors.! This! includes! immigration,! capital! flows,! and! technology! transfers.! The! second! perspective! focuses! on! the! international! trade! of! goods!and!services!and!particularly!on!the!growth!contribution!of!the!export!sector.!! Geography,! probably! the! most! important! determinant! of! market! access,! has! not! received! as! much!attention!as!it!deserves!in!Swiss!historiography.!Hence,!in!order!to!evaluate!the!impact!of!

40!


Switzerland’s! geographical! situation! on! its! development! trajectory,! I! investigate! some! of! the! implications!and!data!provided!by!the!international!economic!geography!literature.! Migration$policy$ Among!the!institutions!affecting!openness!to!production!factors,!immigration!policy!has!played! an! important! role.! A! few! authors! praise! the! openness! and! tolerance! of! Switzerland! towards! immigrants,! particularly! the! protestant! refugees! but! also! the! mass! migration! waves! of! low! skilled! workers! before! WWI! and! after! WWII! (Keller! &! Nordmann! 1973;! Breiding! &! Schwarz! 2011;!Stucki!1970).!However,!a!somewhat!more!critical!evaluation!of!immigration!policy!seems! appropriate.!Few!protestant!refugees!were!granted!access!to!citizenship,!and!guild!regulations! were! rather! reGenforced! than! relaxed! in! response! to! immigration.! In! fact! it! was! the! very! exclusion!of!those!immigrants!from!the!urban!crafts!that!has!encouraged!them!to!introduce!new! forms!of!organization,!such!as!the!puttingGout!system,!in!order!to!circumvent!guild!regulations.! These!activities!were!tolerated!just!because!they!did!not!impede!on!the!established!urban!crafts! (Siegenthaler!1982,!p.328‑330).!The!liberal!immigration!policy!of!the!19th!and!20th!century!must! be!considered!with!some!reserve!as!well.!Until!1917,!Swiss!migration!policy!was,!in!fact,!rather! liberal! and! based! on! the! principal! of! residential! freedom! applied! equally! to! citizens! of! other! cantons! and! other! countries.! ! But! after! WWI,! the! underlying! paradigm! of! migration! policy! has! changed! from! residential! freedom! to! selective! admission! according! to! the! “needs! of! the! labor! market”!and!the!“defense!of!a!national!identity”!(Arlettaz!2004,!p.95).!!Nonetheless,!immigration! was!massive!again!after!WWII.!This!was!a!consequence!of!the!fact!that!immigration!policy!was! designed! and! implemented! in! a! corporatist! arrangement! attributing! a! prominent! position! to! employers! associations.! On! the! other! hand,! the! participation! of! trade! unions,! who! harshly! opposed!to!immigration,!provided!the!migration!regulation!system!with!the!necessary!checks!to! quickly!adapt!immigration!in!case!of!a!slowGdown!(Cattacin!1987;!Stohr!2013).!Accordingly,!the! reduction! of! the! number! of! migrant! workers! (G247’000! jobs)! absorbed! the! lion! share! of! Switzerland’s! severe! employment! contraction! (G331’000! jobs,! i.e.! approximately! 10%! of! total! Swiss! employment)! between! 1975! and! 1978! (Piguet! 2005).! Using! migration! policy! as! an! instrument! to! regulate! the! labor! market,! Switzerland! was! able! to! run! a! restrictive! fiscal! and! monetary!policy!while!“exporting”!unemployment!to!other!countries.!! Independently!of!the!motivation,!exact!design,!and!ethical!correctness!of!the!Swiss!immigration! policy,! at! the! bottom! line! it! seems! clear! that! Switzerland! has! profited! amply! from! migration! movements.!As!has!been!highlighted,!the!protestant!immigration!of!the!16th!and!17th!centuries! was!highly!beneficial,!be!it!in!terms!of!technology,!capital,!entrepreneurship,!or!human!capital.! The! benefits! of! this! immigration! have! probably! laid! the! foundation! for! Switzerland’s! early! industrialization.! During! the! 19th! century,! Switzerland! has! become! an! important! center! of! the! European!labor!market!(Gruner!1980),!so!that!it!never!suffered!from!any!severe!labor!shortages.!


41!

At! the! end! of! the! 20th! and! the! beginning! of! the! 21st! century,! immigration! was! also! a! means! to! overcome!an!increasing!shortage!of!human!capital!in!the!Swiss!population.! Openness$to$technology$transfers$ Since!protestant!immigration!was!an!important!vector!of!technology!transfers!during!the!early! modern! period,! openness! to! immigration! was! also! a! factor! that! contributed! to! openness! to! technology!transfers.! Openness!to!technology!was!also!important!during!the!early!industrialization!period.!Although! Britain! had! prohibited! the! export! of! machines! and! emigration! of! engineers! or! skilled! workers! between!1871!and!1824,!technology!transfers!to!the!continent!could!not!be!prevented!(Pollard! 1981,!p.143‑148).!According!to!Pollard!(1981,!p.101),!the!region!between!Basle!and!Glarus!was! among! the! earliest! in! Europe! to! adopt! mechanized! spinning.! The! first! mechanized! mills! were! installed! with! the! help! of! two! English! mechanics! in! St.! Gallen! in! 1801! (6120! spindles).! Other! mills!followed!in!Wülflingen!close!to!Winterthur!in!1802!(8000!spindles),!and!in!Zurich!in!1805! (5000! spindles).! These! mills! were! already! mounted! by! Swiss! mechanics! (Dudzik! 1987,! p.72).! Until!1820,!the!technology!was!still!simple!enough!to!be!easily!imitated!by!a!trained!mechanic! (Dudzik!1987,!p.97).!Journeys!to!industrial!sites!were!certainly!another!channel!of!transmission.! Jones!draws!the!list!of!Swiss!visitors!to!the!Soho!Manufactory!in!Brimingham!between!1765!and! 1820.!However,!most!of!these!visitors!were!not!industrials!but!savants!from!Geneva.!Only!after! 1800!there!were!also!industrialists!and!engineers!from!the!German!speaking!part!of!Switzerland! among! the! visitors,! among! which! HansGCaspar! Escher,! the! owner! of! the! above! mentioned! spinning! mill! in! Zurich,! and! JohannGGeorg! Bodmer,! engineer! from! Zurich! (Jones! 2010).! The! latter! has! contributed! most! actively! to! technology! transfers! from! Britain! to! Switzerland! and! played!an!important!role!in!the!technical!catchGup!that!Switzerland!operated!between!1828!and! 1837.!He!was!also!author!of!several!inventions!patented!in!London.!All!in!all,!the!British!machine! export! prohibition! has! probably! rather! stimulated! than! limited! the! development! of! the! Swiss! machine!industry!(Dudzik!1987,!p.148‑174).! At! the! end! of! the! 19th! century,! technology! transfers! to! Switzerland! were! stimulated! by! a! particular! configuration! of! Swiss! and! international! patent! law.! Patent! systems! can! have! an! important! impact! on! the! technological! development! of! a! country.! It! is! often! stated! that! patent! systems!increase!R&D!efforts!by!granting!a!temporal!monopoly!rent!to!patent!holders.!However,! as! Schiff! illustrates,! in! the! case! of! Switzerland,! the! history! of! property! rights! protection! was! more!nuanced!than!this.!Switzerland!was!a!founding!member!of!the!International!Union!for!the! Protection! of! Industrial! Property,! which! was! established! in! 1880! and! had! its! headquarter! in! Berne.! As! Switzerland! became! a! member! of! this! organization,! residents! and! firms! that! were! located!in!Switzerland!had!the!right!to!deposit!patents!in!all!other!member!states!of!the!union.!

42!


Paradoxically,!Switzerland!itself!did!not!have!a!patent!system,!so!that,!unlike!Swiss!residents!and! firms! who! could! protect! their! inventions! in! the! other! member! states,! residents! and! firms! of! other!states!could!not!protect!their!inventions!in!Switzerland.!As!I!mentioned!above,!Swiss!firms,! particularly! the! dyestuff! industry,! vividly! took! advantage! of! this! situation! by! imitating! foreign! inventions!that!were!not!protected!in!Switzerland,!while!patenting!their!own!inventions!abroad.! However,! the! other! countries! of! the! union,! particularly! Germany! pressured! Switzerland! hard! enough! to! make! the! introduction! of! a! patent! system! inevitable! in! the! long! run.! In! 1888,! Switzerland!gave!in!and!introduced!a!patent!system.!But!a!special!clause,!de!facto,!excluded!any! process! innovation! and! any! invention! of! the! chemical! industry! from! the! possibility! to! be! patented.!This!special!clause!was!removed!only!in!1907,!when!the!Swiss!chemical!industry!had! caught! up! with! the! German! competitors! and! established! itself! as! leader! in! a! few! niches! (Schiff! 1971).!! Straumann!relativizes!by!highlighting!that!this!particular!constellation!of!patenting!possibilities! was!not!sufficient!on!its!own!for!the!success!of!the!Swiss!chemical!industry:!the!development!of! the!Federal!Polytechnical!School!and!the!close!collaboration!between!industry!and!academy!as! well! as! successful! specialization! were! equally! necessary! (Straumann! 1995,! p.119‑128).! However,!it!seems!clear!that!the!patent!situation!has!largely!facilitated!technology!transfers!in! the!early!stages!of!the!dyestuff!industry.!! Capital$mobility$ Clearly,!capital!has!crossed!international!borders!very!easily!ever!since!the!16th!century.!In!this! context,!the!strong!connectivity!of!Swiss!financiers!and!bankers!to!international!capital!markets,! the! international! orientation! of! the! big! banks,! and! the! early! multinationalization! of! the! Swiss! industry!were!crucial.!However,!two!historical!facts!suggest!that!this!openness!to!capital!flows! must! be! considered! with! some! reserve:! First,! with! the! exception! of! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century,! Switzerland! has! always! been! a! net! capital! exporter.! It! is! therefore! not! clear! to! what! extent,!Swiss!growth!has!profited!from!easy!international!capital!flows.!Second,!capital!markets! within!Switzerland!remained!highly!fragmented!for!a!long!time,!so!that!many!industries!did!not! benefit!from!easy!access!to!capital.!! International$trade$ A! number! of! studies! have! investigated! the! impact! of! international! trade! and! particularly! the! contribution!of!the!export!sector!to!economic!growth.!Siegenthaler!focuses!on!the!18th!and!19th! century!and!attributes!a!large!importance!to!the!export!sector.!His!perspective,!however,!is!not! limited! to! longGterm! growth! or! growth! cycles! stricto! sensu,! but! questions! the! emergence! of! a! growthGoriented! social! system! in! general.! A! powerful! network! of! internationally! oriented! entrepreneurs!developed!before!the!emergence!of!a!national!institutional!framework.!It!is!at!the!


43!

heart! of! this! network! that! new! behaviors,! which! were! oriented! toward! international! markets! but!also!toward!progress!and!economic!growth,!have!materialized!first.!Meanwhile!the!behavior! of! the! largest! part! of! society! was! still! backward! oriented,! i.e.! guided! by! local! past! experience! (Siegenthaler!1982).!! The!duality!between!an!export!oriented!and!a!domestically!oriented!sector!is!also!prominent!in! Bernegger’s!study!of!the!19th!century.!However,!this!author!argues!that!the!export!sector!has!not! had! such! a! strong! impact! on! national! growth! because! linkages! toward! the! domestic! economy! were! limited.! The! importance! of! the! domestic! sector! has! been! underestimated,! according! to! Bernegger.!He!mentions!productivity!increases!in!agriculture!and!construction.!Only!during!the! second!half!of!the!19th!century,!linkages!between!the!two!sectors!were!established.!In!this!period! the! construction! of! the! railway! network,! the! development! of! a! national! capital! market,! increasing! state! intervention,! and! the! emergence! of! corporatist! institutions! allowed! the! emergence!of!a!national!market!on!the!one!hand!and!increasing!integration!in!world!markets!on! the!other!hand!(Bernegger!1990).!! David! (2009)! provides! a! similar! argument.! He! notes! the! emergence! of! selective! protectionism! around!1890,!i.e.!a!combination!of!a!liberal!trade!policy!for!the!sectors!in!which!Switzerland!had! a! comparative! advantage! with! tariffs,! cartelization,! and! subsidies! for! the! other! sectors.! According! to! David,! selective! protectionism! has! provided! a! favorable! environment! for! investment! in! the! domestic! sector! without! being! harmful! for! the! expansion! of! export! sectors.! David’s! argument! might! hold! for! the! period! 1890! to! 1910,! however! after! WWI,! when! protectionism! was! again! reinforced,! Switzerland’s! openness! clearly! declined.! As! Müller! (2012)! shows,!only!the!chemical!and!the!watch!making!industries!were!able!to!expand!their!positions! on!export!markets,!while!the!machine!industry!just!maintained!its!position.!Other!former!export! industries! have! lost! their! comparative! advantage! and! declined,! delocalized! abroad,! or! reG oriented!themselves!to!the!domestic!market.!The!textile!industry!combined!all!three!reactions.! The! food! and! the! silk! industries,! but! also! the! chemical! and! the! machine! industry! have! delocalized! massively! and! very! early.! The! automobile! industry,! which! specialized! in! the! production!of!trucks,!turned!to!the!domestic!market.!Multinationalization!and!expansion!abroad! continued! to! be! the! main! strategy! of! Swiss! firms! of! the! chemical,! machine,! food,! and! construction!material!industries!during!the!second!half!of!the!20th!century.!Insurance!companies! started! multinationalization! in! the1930s! and! banks! in! the! 1990s.! Swiss! exports! became! ever! more! specialized! in! chemicals,! pharmaceuticals,! watches,! and! financial! services.! Machines! constituted!also!a!major!export!sector,!but!this!was!not!unusual!in!international!comparison.!In! short,! exportGorientation! was! replaced! in! many! industries! by! multinationalization! (FDI)! or! reG orientation! to! the! domestic! market.! Hence! Switzerland! was! a! much! less! open! economy! in! the! 20th!century!than!it!was!in!the!19th.!!

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Müller!et!al.!(2012,!p.136)!evaluate!the!direct!contribution!of!exports!and!imports!to!growth!of! global! demand! and! supply! between! 1892! to! 2005.! During! the! expansion! phases! before! midG century,! consumption! was! clearly! the! main! contributor! to! growth! of! aggregate! demand,! while! the! contribution! of! exports! and! investment! remained! much! weaker.! After! 1948,! exports! contributed! a! more! significant! part! to! aggregate! demand! growth.! However,! this! is! mainly! so! because!the!contribution!of!consumption!was!very!weak.!The!contribution!of!imports!to!growth! of!aggregate!supply!was!usually!much!weaker!than!that!of!GDP.!However,!during!the!1970s!and! 1990s!crises!imports’!contribution!to!supply!growth!was!superior!to!that!of!GDP.!! There!are!no!figures!for!the!period!before!1890!that!would!allow!for!the!calculation!of!the!direct! contribution!of!exports!to!growth.!But!Beck’s!(1983)!analysis!of!cantonal!building!investment!in! the! 19th! century! provides! useful! insights! on! the! relative! importance! of! domestic! and! exportG oriented!sectors!for!investment!cycles.!He!identifies!6!KuznetsGcycles!between!1814!and!1913.! The!first!two!cycles!(1814G1851)!follow!the!evolution!of!the!regionally!dominant!export!sectors.! Cycles! 3! and! 4! (1851G1885)! are! determined! by! the! export! sectors! and! railway! construction,! while!the!building!investments!in!cycles!5!and!6!(1885G1913)!have!developed!a!dynamic!of!their! own,! which! often! takes! the! lead! over! other! indicators! such! as! marriages,! imports,! and! production!of!machines.!Beck’s!findings!confirm!the!picture!of!exportGled!growth!until!the!mid! 19th!century!and!increasing!importance!of!the!domestic!economy!thereafter.!! The!overall!growth!and!wealth!effect!of!international!trade!is!of!course!bigger!than!what!exports! and! imports! directly! account! for:! First,! backward! or! forward! linkages! from! the! export! sector! could! have! induced! part! of! the! growth! of! the! domestic! sector.! Second,! international! trade! also! allows! for! the! exploitation! of! comparative! advantages.! In! this! context,! imports! play! an! equally! important!role!as!exports.!For!example,!the!conversion!of!Swiss!agriculture!from!grain!to!higherG valueGadded!milk!products!was!only!possible!because!grain!could!be!imported.!More!generally,! the! specialization! in! manufacturing! and! services! depended! on! food! imports! (David! 2003).! Unfortunately,! no! study! has! attempted! a! global! evaluation! taking! all! effects! of! international! trade! in! account.! But! there! is! consensus! that! the! contribution! of! trade! to! Swiss! growth! was! significant!if!the!effects!of!exports!and!imports!are!considered!(Müller!et!al.!2012,!p.199;!Kohli! 2002;!David!2003).!! Switzerland’s$central$location$in$Europe$ Geography! is! an! essential! determinant! of! market! access.! In! this! respect,! Switzerland’s! central! location!in!the!middle!of!Europe!is!of!prime!importance.!One!of!the!major!traits!in!world!history! is!the!divergence!between!the!development!trajectories!of!European!and!other!civilizations.!This!


45!

pattern! is! often! referred! to! as! the! Great! Divergence! (Pomeranz! 2000)5.! Placing! the! Helvetic! economy!in!this!global!context!highlights!the!importance!of!Switzerland’s!geographical!location:! In!fact,!Switzerland!happened!to!be!on!the!fortunate!side!of!the!Great!Divergence.!Once!Europe’s! rise! had! started,! being! located! in! Europe! increased! the! opportunities! to! profit! from! increased! trade! of! primary! and! manufactured! goods,! technology! transfers,! investments! in! infrastructure! and!equipment,!modernization!and!many!other!beneficial!effects!of!European!development.! Switzerland! was! not! only! lucky! to! be! located! in! Europe,! but! it! was! also! in! a! very! fortunate! position! within! Europe.! Situated! between! France,! Germany,! Italy,! and! AustriaGHungary! Switzerland! held! a! very! strategic! spot.! Ever! since! the! Romans! built! roads! across! the! Alps,! Switzerland!has!been!an!important!area!of!transit.!Medieval!commerce!between!the!Italian!cityG states! and! Northern! Europe! generated! regular! traffic! over! the! Helvetic! passes! and! led! to! the! emergence! of! important! fairs! in! Geneva! and! Zurzach.! During! the! early! modern! period! Swiss! financiers!and!merchants!(mainly!the!immigrated!Huguenot!families)!continued!to!participate!in! international!financial!and!trading!activities!even!though!Switzerland!was!somewhat!less!in!the! geographical!center!after!the!rise!of!the!Atlantic!economy!(Bergier!1984,!chap.15).!According!to! Bouvier,! the! financial! battle! between! French! and! German! financial! institutes! over! Swiss! transalpine!tunnels!during!the!second!half!of!the!19th!century!highlights!once!again!the!strategic! position! of! Switzerland! within! the! European! transport! network! (Bouvier! 1956).! The! geographical! centrality! of! Switzerland! was! reGenforced! by! cultural! proximity.! Multilingualism! and! the! multiplicity! of! religious! orientations! have! probably! helped! to! reduce! border! effects! between!Switzerland!and!the!surrounding!countries:!Geographical!and!cultural!proximity!were! certainly!important!factors!for!the!protestant!immigration,!which!laid!the!foundations!for!early! industrialization,! for! Switzerland’s! attractiveness! on! foreign! holding! companies! that! combined! German! technology! and! French! capital! (Paquier! 2001,! p.166),! for! the! transfer! of! technology,! professionals,!and!academics!from!the!French!and!German!chemical!industries!and!universities! to! Switzerland! (Straumann! 1997),! and! for! the! early! multinationalization! of! Swiss! industries,! which! was! essentially! directed! to! surrounding! countries! (Schröter! 1990).! The! list! of! benefits! from!proximity!to!large,!advanced!economies!could!be!extended!ad!infinitum.!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 5!Proponents!of!global!history!have!advanced!a!number!of!aspects!to!explain!this!divergence.!A!complete!

review! of! this! strand! of! literature! goes! beyond! the! scope! of! this! section,! but! it! seems! appropriate! to! mention! that! geographical! explanations! play! an! important! role! in! this! literature:! e.g.! the! presence! of! a! large! number! of! cultivable! plants! and! animals! on! the! Eurasian! continent,! as! well! as! the! size,! shape,! and! orientation!of!this!continent!(Diamond!1998);!the!fortunate!location!of!coalfields!(Pomeranz!2000;!Allen! 2011);! or! the! possibility! to! take! advantage! of! a! periphery! with! large! empty! landmasses! such! as! the! Americas!(Pomeranz!2000).!

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Probably!the!best!way!to!measure!or!summarize!the!proximity!and!access!to!such!benefits!is!the! market! potential! approach.! Market! potential! is! a! weighted! sum! of! all! countries’! expenditures! weighted! by! bilateral! trade! costs.! Mayer! estimates! market! potential! for! a! panel! of! countries! between!1960!and!2003!and!uses!this!measure!as!an!explanatory!variable!for!worldGwide!GDP! per! capita! differences6.! In! a! first! stage,! trade! costs! are! estimated! from! a! gravity! model,! which! regresses! bilateral! trade! on! geographical! distance,! contiguity,! currency! union,! common! membership!of!a!regional!trade!agreement,!and!GATT/WTO!membership.!In!a!second!stage,!the! estimated! trade! impediments! are! used! to! compute! market! potential! for! each! country.! Since! Mayer’s! estimates! rely! not! only! on! distance! but! also! on! trade! agreements,! currency! union! and! GATT/WTO!membership!it!measures!not!only!favorable!geographical!location!but!also!openness! to! trade.! Mayer! (2009)! distinguishes! real! market! potential! (which! includes! self! trade)! from! foreign! market! potential! (which! excludes! the! country’s! internal! demand).! In! the! remainder! of! the! paper! I! replace! the! term! “real! market! potential”! by! “total! market! potential”,! which! I! find! more!intuitive!and!which!is!also!used!in!other!studies!that!I!will!cite.!For!large!countries,!internal! demand!is!essential,!but!for!small!countries!such!as!Switzerland,!foreign!market!potential!is!the! main! contributor! to! total! market! potential,! i.e.! the! relative! location! is! very! important.! Both! measures! turn! out! to! be! powerful! explanatory! variables! for! GDP! per! capita! differences! among! countries.! Total! market! potential! explains! 52.1%! of! the! crossGcountry! variation! of! GDP! per! capita! in! 1995,! 54.7%! of! the! variation! in! the! pooled! regression! and! even! 74.8%! of! the! withinG country!variation!over!time.!For!foreign!market!potential!the!values!are!28%,!31.8%,!and!71.1%.! Liu! and! Meissner! (2013)! have! realized! an! analogous! study! for! the! period! 1880! to! 1913.! They! estimate!a!gravity!model!of!bilateral!trade!flows!between!27!countries7!in!1900!and!1910!using! bilateral! distance,! international! borders,! common! language,! and! contiguity! as! trade! impediments.! The! estimated! trade! costs! are! then! used! to! construct! measures! of! total,! foreign,! and! domestic! market! potential.! Finally! they! use! these! measures! together! with! the! labor/land! ratio!and!average!years!of!schooling!to!analyze!the!impact!of!market!access!on!GDP!per!capita.! The! crossGsection! models! yield! significant! positive! parameters! for! total! and! domestic! market! potential,! but! not! for! foreign! market! potential.! This! is! mainly! due! to! the! limited! size! of! the! sample.! As! soon! as! the! data! of! more! than! one! crossGsection! is! pooled! the! parameter! becomes! significantly!positive.! How! about! Switzerland’s! market! potential?! In! 2003! according! to! Mayer’s! data,! Switzerland! ranks! 3rd! out! of! 196! countries! in! terms! of! foreign! market! potential! and! 13th! in! terms! of! total! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 6!Earlier,!Redding!and!Venables!(2004)!carried!out!a!similar!study.! 7!The! included! economies! are! 13! West! European! coutnries,! USA,! Canada,! Mexico,! Brazil,! Argentina,! and!

Uruguay,!as!well!as!India,!Japan,!Indonesia,!the!Philippines,!and!Sri!Lanka.!The!last!two!are!dropped!from! the!GDP!per!capita!regressions.!


47!

market! potential.! Foreign! demand! is! clearly! the! main! contributor! to! Switzerland’s! market! access.!The!high!value!for!foreign!market!potential!is!consequence!of!Switzerland’s!geographical! location,! of! the! fact! that! Switzerland! shares! a! common! language! with! several! large! economies,! notably! Germany,! France,! and! Italy,! and! membership! in! GATT/WTO! and! EFTA.! In! 1960! Switzerland! ranked! 8th! in! terms! of! foreign! market! potential! behind! Belgium,! the! Netherlands,! Austria,!France,!Great!Britain,!Denmark,!and!Germany.!All!those!countries!were!full!members!of! EEC! or! EFTA! and! of! GATT,! while! Switzerland! was! member! only! of! EFTA.! The! fact! that! Switzerland! was! on! 8th! position! even! without! being! member! of! GATT! shows! that! the! high! estimate!of!market!access!is!mainly!due!to!geography!and!multilingualism,!and!to!a!lesser!extent! to! trade! policy.! However,! the! fact! that! other! countries! engaged! more! rapidly! in! international! integration!than!Switzerland!has!clearly!limited!the!Swiss!location!advantage!in!the!postGWWII! era.! In! 1900! and! 1910! according! to! Liu! and! Meissner,! Switzerland! had! the! highest! foreign! market!potential!of!all!countries!included!in!their!study.!No!comparable!dataset!or!study!exists! for!the!interwar!period.!However,!it!seems!reasonable!to!assume!that!Swiss!trade!policy!was!not! less!liberal!than!that!of!most!other!European!countries,!so!that!Switzerland’s!location!advantage! was! eroded! only! after! WWII.! Hence,! 1960! represents! the! moment,! when! the! Swiss! location! advantage!was!weakest8.! How! about! the! impact! of! market! access! on! GDP! per! capita?! Mayer’s! data! is! available! from! the! cepii!website9!and!can!be!used!to!get!a!better!idea!of!the!contribution!of!foreign!market!potential! to!the!Swiss!GDP!per!capita!level.!Table!3!provides!regression!results!for!different!crossGsection! models.!Foreign!market!potential!serves!as!a!single!explanatory!variable!of!GDP!per!capita.!All! models!suggest!that!proximity!to!large!economies!explains!a!significant!part!of!variation!in!GDP! per!capita:!in!2003,!foreign!market!potential!explains!36.5%!of!worldGwide!(log)!GDP!per!capita! differentials! and! 23.1%! of! intraGEuropean! differentials.! In! 1960,! the! explanatory! power! is! weaker! at! the! world! level! but! very! strong! at! the! intraGEuropean! level! explaining! 44.9%! of! the! variation.!Columns!1!and!2!provide!results!for!the!2003!and!1960!crossGsections.!Differences!in! foreign! market! potential! translate! practically! one! to! one! into! GDP! per! capita! differences.! The! strength!of!the!effect!is!comparable!in!both!periods.!Columns!3!and!4!provide!the!results!for!the! same! models! applied! only! to! the! European! countries! of! the! sample.! Although! the! number! of! observations! is! very! limited,! the! results! are! highly! significant.! In! other! words,! foreign! market! potential!is!also!a!powerful!explanatory!variable!of!intraGEuropean!GDP!per!capita!differentials.!! To! what! extent! does! the! high! GDP! per! capita! level! of! Switzerland! rely! on! foreign! market! potential?!In!order!to!answer!this!question,!I!use!models!1!to!4!to!make!predictions!of!countries’! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8!In!Redding!and!Venables’!study!(2004),!Switzerland!is!also!among!the!countries!with!the!highest!foreign!

market!potential.! 9!!http://www.!cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/marketpotentials.htm.!

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GDP!per!capita!levels.!Table!4!displays!some!frequencies!on!these!estimates.!The!bottom!line!of! the!table!provides!a!measure!of!the!accuracy!of!the!prediction!for!Switzerland.!The!2003!worldG wide! model! overestimates! Swiss! GDP! per! capita! by! 11.9%.! All! other! models! underestimate! Swiss! GDP! per! capita.! Generally,! the! accuracy! is! much! better! in! 2003! than! in! 1960,! probably! because! in! 1960! Swiss! foreign! market! potential! was! at! a! temporary! low,! which! does! not! correspond!to!the!historical!situation,!which!has!fashioned!Swiss!growth!in!until!then.!In!global! perspective,!the!impact!of!foreign!market!access!on!Switzerland’s!GDP!per!capita!appears!to!be! really!exceptional.!In!column!1,!only!for!2!countries,!Belgium!and!the!Netherlands,!the!predicted! 2003!GDP!per!capita!level!is!higher!than!for!Switzerland.!No!other!country’s!prediction!reaches! even!80%!of!the!Swiss!prediction!and!only!2!countries!have!a!predicted!GDP!per!capita!between! 50! and! 80%! of! the! Swiss! level.! Almost! all! countries! of! the! sample! have! a! predicted! GDP! per! capita! of! less! than! 50%! of! Switzerland.! Even! in! 1960! (column! 2),! when! Switzerland! was! less! integrated! in! the! world! economy,! less! than! a! dozen! countries! had! a! predicted! GDP! per! capita! superior! to! 80%! of! the! Swiss! level.! In! European! perspective! foreign! market! potential! had! a! weaker!impact!on!GDP!per!capita.!But!even!in!this!context!more!than!half!of!the!countries!have!a! predicted! 2003! GDP! per! capita! of! less! than! 50%! of! Switzerland! (column! 3).! Even! in! 1960! (column!4),!when!the!Swiss!location!advantage!was!at!its!weakest!level,!half!of!the!sample!had!a! predicted!GDP!per!capita!level!of!less!than!80%!of!Switzerland.!! The! market! potential! argument! is! also! very! much! in! line! with! the! longGterm! development! trajectory! of! Switzerland.! Veyrassat! designates! the! development! of! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! as! a! “structural! big! bang”! (Veyrassat! 2012,! p.51).! Clearly! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century!was!one!Switzerland’s!most!important!development!periods.!Also!the!development!was! very! important! in! international! comparison.! According! to! the! sectoral! employment! data! presented!in!Broadberry!et!al.!(Broadberry!et!al.!2010),!Switzerland!has!experienced!the!third! largest! drop! of! the! agricultural! employment! share! between! 1870! and! 1913;! the! per! capita! industrialization!level!of!Switzerland!rose!by!a!factor!of!3.3!between!1860!and!1913!(compared! to!a!factor!of!2.6!for!the!whole!of!Europe),!so!that!Switzerland!ranked!third!behind!the!UK!and! Belgium!in!1913.!This!period!corresponds!to!a!major!period!of!market!integration!in!European! history10.!Market!integration!has!started!in!the!early!19th!century!(Jacks!2005;!Jacks!2006),!and! railway!construction!has!further!reduced!trade!costs!in!the!second!half!of!the!century!(Federico! 2007;!Brunt!&!Cannon!2013).!With!the!construction!of!the!transalpine!tunnels!Switzerland!came! to! lay! on! one! of! the! major! connecting! axes! between! northern! and! southern! Europe! (Bouvier! 1956).! Also! the! increasing! rivalry! between! Germany! and! France! during! the! second! half! of! the! century! provided! an! opportunity! for! multilingual! Switzerland! to! take! the! role! of! a! mediator! in! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10!There!is!an!extensive!literature!on!this!topic.!For!a!thorough!review!see!Federico!(2012).!


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financial!and!business!transactions!between!the!two!powers.!This!very!central!position!provided! the!Swiss!economy!with!the!opportunity!to!become!a!major!growth!pole!of!the!industrial!core!of! Europe.! Gruner’s! (1980)! contention! that! Switzerland! became! one! of! the! major! centers! of! the! European!labor!market!during!that!period!confirms!my!argument.! The! second! half! of! the! 20th! century! was! again! a! period! of! market! integration.! Here! the! main! driving! element! was! European! integration! the! creation! of! a! single! market! and! ultimately! the! formation! of! the! Euro! zone.! However,! this! time! Switzerland! participated! only! weakly! in! the! integration!process.!On!the!one!hand,!this!has!undermined!the!Swiss!location!advantage;!on!the! other! hand,! this! second! market! integration! process! may! well! have! driven! trade! costs! within! Europe! to! such! a! low! level,! that! they! have! become! negligible.! The! consequence! was! reG dispersion! rather! than! further! agglomeration! in! Europe’s! industrial! core! (Krugman! 1992).! In! fact,! the! fastest! growing! economies! within! Europe! belonged! to! the! group! with! lower! values! of! foreign!market!potential!in!1960!(table!5).! To!conclude,!the!central!geographical!location!was!certainly!a!major!growth!factor!for!the!Swiss! economy.! There! is! firm! evidence! that! relative! location! and! market! access! are! very! important! determinants! of! todays! GDP! per! capita! levels.! This! holds! in! world! perspective! but! also! for! differences! within! Europe.! In! 2003! Switzerland! benefitted! from! exceptionally! high! market! access.!An!international!market!potential!dataset!for!the!most!important!development!period!of! Switzerland,! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! does! not! yet! exist! but! it! seems! reasonable! to! believe! that! the! Swiss! location! advantage! was! also! highly! significant! at! that! time.! Hence,! Switzerland! was! in! an! ideal! situation! to! profit! from! fast! international! market! integration.! TwentiethGcentury! European! market! integration! was! different! in! the! sense! that! it! led! to! dispersion! rather! than! agglomeration.! In! that! sense! it! did! not! offer! the! same! growth! opportunities!to!Switzerland!than!a!century!earlier.!But!Switzerland!also!missed!the!opportunity! to!further!integrate!with!European!markets!so!that!Swiss!growth!was!clearly!slower!than!that!of! other!economies!of!Europe’s!core.!!

Spatial'perspectives'on'Swiss'growth' The! Swiss! growth! trajectory! is! best! understood! in! geographical! perspective,! as! part! of! the! European!economy.!The!central!location!of!Switzerland!has!allowed!for!very!easy!market!access.! During!the!major!period!of!European!market!integration!in!the!19th!century,!the!Swiss!economy! has! been! able! to! exploit! this! advantage! and! become! part! of! Europe’s! industrial! core.! Market! integration!of!the!20th!century!implied!reGdispersion!rather!than!further!concentration,!so!that! growth!in!the!industrial!core!was!slower!than!in!the!periphery.!Switzerland!has!also!lacked!the! opportunity! to! participate! in! European! integration.! The! resulting! Swiss! growth! trajectory!

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appears!to!be!one!of!comparatively!fast!growth!during!the!19th!century!and!comparatively!slow! growth!during!the!20th!century.! Seen!in!this!European!perspective,!Switzerland’s!wealthy!situation!is!not!consequence!of!Swiss! exceptionality! but! of! the! very! fortunate! geographical! situation! of! the! Helvetic! cantons.! It! is! possible!that!stability,!the!Swiss!variety!of!capitalism,!mentality,!or!local!and!regional!banks!have! contributed!at!certain!moments!to!create!a!business!friendly!environment,!but!these!factors!do! not!seem!to!be!the!main!explanatory!factors!of!Swiss!growth.!The!one!institutional!characteristic! that!was!most!important!for!the!exploitation!of!Switzerland’s!location!advantage!was!openness! to!trade,!knowledge,!and!immigration.! This! thesis! is! complementary! to! the! European! perspective! on! Swiss! growth.! It! focuses! also! on! spatial! patterns! but! it! shifts! the! perspective! to! a! lower! geographical! level.! This! shift! of! perspective! from! international! to! internal! spatial! configurations! implies! also! a! shift! of! focus! from! market! access! to! agglomeration! patterns.! Put! differently,! the! perspective! on! internal! spatial! patterns! is! closer! to! urban! economics,! while! the! international! perspective! is! mainly! embedded! in! the! new! economic! geography! literature.! However,! both! strands! of! literature! remain! relevant.! They! are! also! related,! since! market! integration! was! the! main! cause! of! accelerating! agglomeration.! Transport! historians! and! transport! planners! have! shown! the! acceleration!of!the!Swiss!transport!system!and!the!positive!impact!of!accessibility!on!population! growth!of!different!localities!(Frey!2006;!Fröhlich!et!al.!2006;!Frey!1997;!Flury!2009;!Tschopp! 2007;! Tschopp! et! al.! 2006).! This! thesis! takes! it! from! there! and! shows! how! agglomeration! influenced!economic!growth.! A!large!part!of!this!thesis!is!concerned!with!the!elaboration!of!data!that!can!be!used!for!such!an! analysis.!As!I!will!show!in!paper!I,!even!the!aggregate!national!GDP!series!for!Switzerland!from! 1851!to!2008!seem!to!be!inaccurate.!Since!the!decomposition!of!regional!GDP!into!subnational! aggregate!builds!on!national!value!added!series,!an!accurate!series!for!the!national!level!has!to! be! elaborated! first.! Paper! II! constructs! a! highly! detailed! dataset! on! regional! employment! by! industry,! and! combines! this! data! with! the! value! added! series! of! the! first! paper! in! order! to! estimate! regional! GDP! and! productivity.! Paper! III! uses! this! dataset! to! analyze! the! evolution! of! spatial!economic!concentration!and!to!measure!different!types!of!agglomeration!economies.!The! results! are! put! in! context! to! the! aggregate! national! growth! trajectory! in! order! to! evaluate! the! role!of!agglomeration!for!national!economic!growth.! ! ! ! ! !

'


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!

60!


Appendix' ! Table'1:'Swiss'urbanization'rate'and'its'annual'increase,'aggregate'GDP'growth'rate'' !

(1)!

(2)!

(3)!

(4)!

Annual! ! increase!of! Total! Swiss! Urban! Urban! urban! Year!! Population! population! percentage! percentage! 1789! 6.5! 0.1! 1850! ! 2'392'740! ! 355'554! 14.9! 0.3!

(5)! Annual! percentage! reduction! of!nonG urban! percentage! 0.1!

(6)!

(7)!

Annual! growth! GDP!

Annual! growth! GDP!per! capita!

0.3!

! 1.6!

! 1.0!

!

Period! 1798G1950! 1851G1870!

1870!

2'655'001!

548'175!

20.6!

0.3!

0.3!

3.4!

2.7!

1870G1880!

1880!

2'831'787!

653'922!

23.1!

0.4!

0.5!

3.6!

3.2!

1880G1890!

1888!

2'917'754!

759'876!

26.0!

0.6!

0.8!

3.8!

2.6!

1890G1900!

1900!

3'315'443!

1'094'940!

33.0!

0.6!

0.9!

3.1!

1.9!

1900G1910!

1910!

3'753'293!

1'451'534!

38.7!

0.1!

0.2!

G0.2!

G0.6!

1910G1920!

1920!

3'880'320!

1'543'720!

39.8!

0.2!

0.3!

2.8!

2.3!

1920G1930!

1930!

4'066'400!

1'691'131!

41.6!

0.3!

0.6!

1.0!

0.6!

1930G1940!

1941!

4'265'703!

1'928'578!

45.2!

0.4!

0.7!

3.0!

2.0!

1940G1950!

1950!

4'714'992!

2'293'179!

48.6!

0.6!

1.2!

5.0!

3.6!

1950G1960!

1960!

5'429'061!

2'963'201!

54.6!

0.5!

1.0!

5.7!

4.1!

1960G1970!

1970!

6'269'783!

3'704'393!

59.1!

G0.1!

G0.2!

1.5!

1.3!

1970G1980!

1980!

6'365'960!

3'718'470!

58.4!

0.1!

0.1!

2.8!

2.1!

1980G1990!

1990!

6'873'687!

4'047'512!

58.9!

0.0!

0.0!

0.3!

G0.3!

1990G2000!

2000!

7'288'010!

4'303'953!

59.1!

0.3!

0.7!

2.5!

2.0!

2000G2008!

2010!

7'870'134!

4'874'822!

61.9!

! ! Correlation!with!annual!increase!of!urbanization!:!

! 0.68!

! 0.59!

!!

Correlation!with!percentage!reduction!of!nonGurban!percentage!:! 0.73! 0.62! ! Sources:! 1850G2000! Population! data! and! urbanization! rates! are! based! on! harmonized! municipalities! provided! by! Schuler! et! al.! (2002);! Urbanization! rate! for! 1798! from! Walter! (1994)! based! on! the! data! of! Schluchter! (1988);! Population!and!urbanization!rates!for!2010!from!StatGtab!Federal!statistical!office;!GDP!growth:!Stohr!(2014)! Note:!! Definition!of!urban!settlements:!5000!inhabitants!and!more.! Annual! increase! of! urban! percentage:! Since! the! urbanization! rate! is! a! bounded! measure! (it! cannot! be! higher! than! 100%)! its! increase! must! naturally! slow! down! as! the! upper! limit! is! approached.! The! annual! increase! of! the! urban! percentage! does! not! account! for! this.! The! annual! percentage! reduction! of! the! nonGurban! percentage! accounts! for! reduced!scope!for!additional!urbanization.! ! ! ! !

!


61!

Table'2:'Urbanization'and'GDP'per'capita'growth'in'twenty'countries,'1850-1910' !

Urbanization!rate! !

GDP!per!capita!

! !

!

!

!

! !

In!1990!GGK!Dollars!

Relative!to!UK! 1850!

1910!

! Annual! Growth! rate!

!

0.51!

1.03!

2.10!

! 1850! Suisse! Canada' USA!

!

1385!

4732!

8'

32'

4.00'

1330'

4066'

'

0.49'

0.88'

1.88'

3.00! ' ! 5.25! 3.29! !

1849!

4964!

!

0.68!

1.08!

1.66!

1975!

5210!

!

0.73!

1.13!

1.63!

1076!

2543!

!

0.40!

0.55!

1.44!

1428!

3348!

!

0.53!

0.73!

1.43!

42! 42!

Sweden!

7!

23!

15!

3.27!

2.79! ! ! 1.68! 2.46! !

9!

25!

Belgium!

34!

57!

Denmark!

15!

36!

4!

3.41!

1.45! ! ! 1.00! 1.20! !

11!

16!

Yougoslavia!

10!

10!

Japan!

15!

18!

!

38!

2.00!

2.11! ! ! 1.67! 1.57! !

Spain!

18!

38!

Great!Britain!

45!

75!

Greece!!

14!

22!

39!

!

13!

Romania!

19!

!

49!

Norway!!

Netherlands!

1910!

2.75! !!

8!

France!

1850!

33!

14!

Finland!

!

12!

Australia! Germany!

Ratio! 1910/1850!

1910!

!

53!

1.36!

2.00! ! ! 1.00! !!

Italy!

20!

40!

Portugal!

16!

16!

956!

2186!

!

0.35!

0.47!

1.39!

1847!

4064!

!

0.68!

0.88!

1.32!

1767!

3705!

!

0.65!

0.80!

1.24!

911!

1906!

!

0.34!

0.41!

1.24!

849!

1660!

!

0.31!

0.36!

1.12!

503!

973!

!

0.19!

0.21!

1.11!

681!

1304!

!

0.25!

0.28!

1.09!

1597!

2965!

!

0.59!

0.64!

1.04!

1079!

1895!

!

0.40!

0.41!

0.94!

2718!

4611!

!

1.00!

1.00!

0.88!

1008!

1626!

!

0.37!

0.35!

0.80!

2355!

3783!

!

0.87!

0.82!

0.79!

1481!

2176!

!

0.54!

0.47!

0.64!

923!

1228!

!

0.34!

0.27!

0.48!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Correlation! with!Ratio! G0.473! 1910/1850! (0.036)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Correlation! with!GDP!pc! G0.420! 0.699! 0.045! growth! (0.065)! ! (0.001)! ! (0.851)! ! ! ! ! ! Sources:! Urbanization! rates! from! Bairoch! (1985,! p.288)! and! Bairoch! and! Goertz! (1986);! GDP! per! capita! from! the! Maddison!project!(Bolt!&!van!Zanden!2013);!GDP!per!capita!for!Switzerland!from!Stohr!“assembling!the!fragements”.! Correlations:!pGvalues!in!parentheses.! !

! !

!

62!


Table'3:'Foreign'market'potential'and'GDP'per'capita'regressions' ! Intercept!

(1)!

(2)!

(4)!

(5)!

LnGDPpc2003!

LnGDPpc1960!

LnGDPpc2003!

LnGDPpc1960!

G7.128***!

G3.909!

1.703!

G1.881!

(1.478)!

(2.310)!

(3.207)!

(2.073)!

!

!

1.044***!

0.996***!

0.511*!

0.845***!

(0.104)!

(0.239)!

(0.204)!

(0.205)!

!

!

!

!

FMP!period!

2003!

1960!

2003!

1960!

N!

177!

81!

23!

23!

100.7***!

17.39***!

6.299**!

17.09***!

0.365!

0.180!

0.231!

0.449!

LnFMP_rv! !

FGstatistic! R2!

‘*’!sig.!0.05,!‘**’!sig.!0.01,!‘***’!sig.!0.001! ! ! Table'4:'Predictions'of'GDP'per'capita'from'foreign'market'potential' Model!

(1)!

(2)!

(4)!

(5)!

Dependent!

GDPpc2003!

GDPpc1960!

GDPpc2003!

GDPpc1960!

Explanatory!

FMP2003!

FMP1960!

FMP2003!

FMP1960!

Predicted! GDP! per!

Number!of!countries!

capita!level:! ! >100%!of!CH!

2!

7!

2!

7!

0!

4!

0!

4!

2!

24!

5!

9!

checking)with)international)benchmark)comparisons)of)GDP)per)capita)and)wages) So! far,! my! argumentation! in! favor! of! the! CPI! deflated! series! has! drawn! on! two! types! of! arguments:!a!theoretical!discussion!of!the!problems!with!double!deflation!and!an!investigation! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 15!I!supposed!that!the!US!ratio!remained!stable!between!1851!and!1870!and!that!the!UK!ratio!remained!

stable!between!1851!and!1855.!

88!

Christian!Stohr!/!Let’s!get!this!right:!Swiss!GDP!and!value!added!by!industry!from!1851!to!2008!

of! relative! price! changes! in! Switzerland.! Additional! confirmation! can! be! provided! by! the! confrontation! of! my! international! comparisons! with! real! wage! comparisons! and! with! direct! benchmark!comparisons!of!GDP!per!capita.! Studer!(2008)!shows!that,!in!1850,!Swiss!nominal!wages!were!only!one!third!of!British!ones!and! 60%! of! French,! Belgian,! and! Dutch! salaries.! By! 1910! Swiss! wages! caughtGup! and! were! about! 70%! of! those! in! Britain.! In! real! terms,! Swiss! wages! were! even! lower.! Certainly,! wage! levels! depend!also!on!bargaining!power!of!workers,!and!the!size!of!the!city!where!the!data!comes!from.! London!being!much!larger,!it!seems!natural!that!wages!are!somewhat!higher,!and!Swiss!workers! might! well! have! suffered! from! weak! bargaining! power.! But! the! GDP! level! suggested! by! the! double!deflated!series!is!so!high!that!it!is!hardly!reconcilable!with!the!low!Swiss!wages!reported! by!Studer.! For! international! comparisons,! monetary! aggregates! have! to! be! converted! to! a! common! currency.!In!order!to!be!meaningful,!such!a!conversion!must!take!account!of!the!different!price! levels,! i.e.! they! must! be! purchasingGpowerGparity! converted.! The! Maddison! database! and! my! GDP! series! rely! on! a! single! PPP! benchmark,! which! was! operated! for! the! year! 1990! (Maddison! 1995).! Then! GDP! levels! were! extrapolated! backward! and! forward! from! this! benchmark! using! the!movement!of!real!GDP.!Several!authors!have!argued!that!such!time!series!projections!over! long! periods! are! inadequate,! because! index! number! problems! and! methodological! differences! cumulate!making!comparisons!across!space!spurious!(Prados!de!la!Escosura!2000;!Ward!2001;! Ward!&!Devereux!2003).!The!alternative!to!time!series!projections!is!the!direct!comparison!with! several! benchmarks.! However,! just! like! time! series! projections! are! inaccurate! for! comparisons! across! space,! benchmark! estimates! are! inadequate! for! comparisons! over! time! (Ward! &! Devereux! 2004).! Theoretically! it! is! impossible! to! construct! a! database,! which! allows! for! comparisons! in! both! dimensions.! Empirically,! however,! it! is! possible! to! reconcile! time! series! projections! and! benchmarks! within! a! certain! error! margin! (Broadberry! 2003;! Broadberry! &! Burhop!2007;!Broadberry!&!Klein!2011).! Table! 8! provides! a! benchmark! comparison! of! UK,! US,! and! Swiss! GDP! per! capita! levels! around! 1905.!Among!the!three!countries!Switzerland!had!the!lowest!and!the!USA!the!highest!price!level.! These! price! levels! can! be! used! to! construct! PPP! exchange! rates! and! convert! nominal! GDP! per! capita! into! a! common! currency.! According! to! this! benchmark! comparison! the! Swiss! GDP! per! capita! level! between! 1900! and! 1910! was! 9%! below! that! of! the! UK! and! 14%! below! that! of! the! USA.!According!to!the!CPI!deflated!time!series!projection!the!corresponding!percentages!are!1%! and! 6%.! This! lies! within! a! 10%! error! margin.! According! to! the! double! deflated! time! series! projection!Swiss!GDP!per!capita!would!have!been!35%!above!the!UK!and!31%!above!the!USA.! This! is! clearly! very! different! from! the! situation! described! by! the! benchmark! comparison.! The!


89!

corresponding! error! is! 48.4%! for! the! SwissGUK! comparison! and! 52.1%! for! the! SwissGUSA! comparison.! This! benchmark! comparison! is! of! course! very! simplistic,! because! the! underlying! consumption! basket!covers!only!a!small!part!of!GDP!and!the!prices!are!from!a!few!cities!only.!However!the!fact! that! time! series! projections! and! benchmark! comparisons! corroborate! each! other! suggests! that! both! estimation! methods! seem! to! be! reasonably! accurate.! For! the! USGUK! comparison! both! deflation!methods!are!very!well!in!line!with!the!benchmark!comparison.!In!accordance!with!my! argumentation,! the! correspondence! of! the! CPI! deflated! series! is! even! better! than! that! of! the! double!deflated!series.!For!the!case!of!Switzerland,!the!benchmark!corroborates!the!CPI!deflated! series!but!clearly!shows!that!the!double!deflated!series!is!not!accurate.!! In! fact,! the! doubleGdeflated! Swiss! GDP! series! provides! an! extreme! example! of! the! problem! highlighted! by! Ward! and! Devereux! (2003),! namely! an! index! number! problem! that! leads! to! complete!fallacy!of!the!historical!GDP!estimates:!“We!are!left!with!a!basic!index!number!problem.! Each!country!uses!different!weights!in!the!calculation!of!their!domestic!GDP!series.!Revisions!of!the! weights! also! occur! at! differing! intervals.! Furthermore,! each! country! includes! new! goods! and! adjusts! for! quality! change! differently.! We! suspect! that! these! factors! explain! most! of! the! discrepancies! between! the! direct! and! longHspan! income! estimates! because! they! result! in! growth! rates!that!are!measured!differently.”!(Ward!&!Devereux!2003,!p.844).!The!list!of!possible!sources! of! error! drawn! by! Ward! and! Devereux! can! be! extended! by! the! impact! of! changes! in! terms! of! trade.! Even! if! all! growth! rates! were! constructed! the! same! way! and! perfect! price! indices! were! chosen,! changes! in! terms! of! trade! would! lead! to! discrepancies! between! doubleGdeflated! time! series! projections! and! benchmark! comparisons! because! double! deflation! excludes! the! gains! from! terms! of! trade! changes,! while! benchmark! estimates! include! all! gains! realized! under! the! prevailing! price! structure.! Hence,! singleGdeflated! GDP! series! have! a! better! chance! to! be! corroborated!by!benchmarks!than!double!deflated!series,!i.e.!they!are!probably!more!accurate.! Prados!de!la!Escosura!(2000)!has!presented!a!database!with!19!benchmark!comparisons!for!the! period! 1820! to! 1990.! Switzerland! enters! the! dataset! only! in! 1880,! so! that! only! 11! benchmark! comparisons! for! Switzerland! are! available.! Since! only! few! PPPs! are! available! for! the! period! before! 1950,! the! author! uses! a! shortGcut! method.! This! method! consists! of! estimating,! in! a! first! step,! a! structural! relationship! between! PPPs! and! a! number! of! explanatory! variables! including! exchangeGrate!converted!nominal!GDP!for!the!period!when!PPPs!are!available.!In!a!second!step,! the!estimated!structural!relationship!is!used!to!predict!PPPs!for!the!period,!when!they!are!not! available,! and! convert! nominal! GDP! with! these! estimated! PPPs.! I! combine! the! ratio! between! Swiss!and!UK!GDP!per!capita!levels!from!Prados!de!la!Escosura!with!Maddisons!GDP!per!capita! levels! for! the! UK! to! obtain! alternative! estimates! for! Swiss! GDP.! Figure! 16! presents! these! estimates! along! with! the! different! GDP! series! from! the! Maddison! databse! and! myself.! These!

90!


punctual! estimates! clearly! infirm! the! Maddison! update! and! my! double! deflated! series;! confirming! the! longGrun! trend! of! the! old! Maddison! series! and! my! CPI! deflated! series.! The! estimates! for! 1950! and! 1960! clearly! confirm! the! CPI! deflated! series! against! the! three! others,! which!rely!on!double!deflation.! I! conclude! that! there! is! ample! evidence! that! my! CPI! deflated! series! is! more! accurate! than! all! other! Swiss! real! GDP! series.! This! conclusion! relies! on! theoretical! considerations,! an! empirical! investigation! of! relative! price! changes! in! Switzerland,! real! wage! comparisons,! and! direct! benchmark! comparison! with! PPPs! from! a! limited! consumption! basket! or! from! a! shortGcut! estimation!method.!

Implications)for)Swiss)economic)history) An!obvious!implication!of!my!new!real!GDP!series!is!that!Switzerland!was!much!less!rich!than! suggested!by!the!series!published!in!the!Maddison!update!(Bolt!&!van!Zanden!2013).!According! to! this! series,! Switzerland! was! the! richest! country! in! the! world! for! almost! a! century! (1890! to! 1980)! with! a! large! advance! between! 1890! and! WWII.! According! to! my! CPI! deflated! series,! Switzerland!was!always!among!the!top!five!in!Western!Europe!and!North!America!but!it!took!the! lead!only!at!two!short!moments!and!it!never!enjoyed!a!large!advance.! The!growth!trajectory!of!my!series!has!also!an!implication!on!the!discussion!about!the!sources!of! Swiss! growth.! Different! potential! sources! of! Swiss! growth! have! been! advocated:! the! strong! financial! sector,! Protestantism,! stability! (including! neutrality,! corporatism,! and! monetary! stability),!and!market!access!(including!the!geographical!location,!openness,!and!internal!market! integration).! The! impact! of! Protestantism! was! most! important! from! the! 15th! to! 18th! centuries,! when! protestant! immigrants! developed! numerous! protoGindustrial! activities! in! Switzerland.! Market! access! was! most! important! during! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century,! when! international! markets! integrated! rapidly.! The! construction! of! the! Swiss! railway! system! and! its! connection!to!the!European!networks!between!1850!and!1910!allowed!Switzerland!to!take!fully! advantage! of! its! central! geographical! location.! The! Swiss! financial! sector! has! become! a! global! player!only!in!the!second!half!of!the!20th!century.!Stability,!as!well,!was!a!distinct!characteristic! of! Switzerland! during! the! 20th! century,! notably! after! 1930,! when! corporatist! regulations! were! most! important! and! the! defense! of! the! Swiss! franc! became! the! top! priority! of! economic! policy! making.! The! growth! trajectory! of! my! CPI! deflated! series! identifies! the! period! 1850! to! 1910! as! the!most!important!growth!period!for!Switzerland.!In!doing!so!it!draws!the!attention!away!from! Protestantism!and!stability,!highlighting!the!importance!of!the!extraordinary!market!access!that! Switzerland!enjoyed!mainly!due!to!its!favorable!geographical!location.!Hence!geography,!rather! than!culture!and!institutions,!explains!the!extraordinary!wealth!of!Switzerland.!!


91!

Conclusion' This!paper!provides!a!discussion!of!the!data,!which!is!available!on!Swiss!GDP!and!value!added,! the! way! this! data! can! be! combined! to! form! a! longGterm! series,! and! how! it! can! be! deflated! and! compared!internationally.!! In!most!cases!the!methodological!choices!were!made!in!favor!of!the!method,!which!introduced! no!changes!in!relative!value!added!levels!between!industries.!The!only!exception!to!this!rule!was! the! connection! of! the! estimates! for! 1851! to! 1890! to! the! estimates! for! the! subsequent! period,! because! the! levels! of! the! 1851! to! 1890! value! added! series! were! supposed! to! be! less! accurate! than! those! of! the! subsequent! period.! This! methodological! choice! has! reduced! nonGadditivity! problems! in! my! database,! and! it! increases! the! coherence! between! current! price! and! constant! price!series.!As!a!result!the!real!value!added!series!can!be!used!for!both!types!of!comparisons:! time!series!and!cross!section!of!industries.! Recently,!the!Maddison!database!has!been!updated!with!a!new!series!for!Switzerland.!This!new! series! suggests! that! Switzerland! was! already! very! rich! in! 1851! and! that! it! became! the! richest! country! in! the! world! by! 1890! staying! in! that! position! for! almost! the! whole! time! until! 1980.! I! show! that! this! comparatively! extremely! high! GDP! level! is! a! statistical! artifact! that! stems! from! double! deflation! without! frequently! rebased! price! indices! and! from! enormous! relative! price! changes!that!occurred!in!Switzerland!between!1945!and!1990.!As!a!solution!I!propose!a!simple! CPIGdeflation!of!nominal!GDP.!This!generates!a!real!GDP!series,!which!is!again!closer!to!the!old! Maddison! series,! but! with! faster! growth! during! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! and! the! period! 1950! to! 1990.! I! argue! that! the! measurement! problem! with! double! deflation! is! less! important!in!other!countries,!so!that!the!CPIGdeflated!series!can!be!compared!to!the!Maddison! series! for! other! countries.! Further! support! for! the! CPI! deflated! series! and! against! the! double! deflated! series! comes! from! international! wage! comparisons! elaborated! by! Studer! (2008)! and! from!an!international!benchmark!comparison!of!UK,!US,!and!Swiss!GDP!per!capita!levels.!! The! international! comparison! suggests! that,! in! 1851,! Switzerland! was! on! rank! number! 10! among! 12! Western! European! countries! plus! the! USA,! 18%! below! the! European! average.! Between! 1851! and! 1910! Switzerland! operated! a! rapid! catchGup! movement! to! the! US! and! UK! level.! Between! 1910! and! 1945! Switzerland’s! position! relative! to! Europe! fluctuated! in! the! medium! term! but! remained! roughly! stable! in! the! longGterm.! Another! catchGup! with! the! USA! occurred!during!the!1950s!and!1960s.!Between!1973!and!2000,!Switzerland!has!fallen!back!to! the! European! level! and! 28%! behind! the! USA;! and! eight! other! countries! have! passed! ahead! of! Switzerland.!Finally,!in!the!early!21st!century!Switzerland’s!relative!position!improved!again.! The!contributions!of!this!paper!are!threeGfold.!First,!it!provides!a!GDP!series!for!Switzerland!that! builds! on! reliable! sources! and! is! very! much! in! line! with! other! types! of! evidence! (international! benchmark! comparisons! and! international! wage! comparisons).! Second,! it! points! out! a!

92!


methodological! problem! of! double! deflation! that! might! also! be! a! source! of! error! in! the! GDP! series! of! other! (small! open)! economies.! Third,! it! throws! a! different! light! on! the! development! trajectory! of! Switzerland! shifting! the! accent! from! protoGindustry! and! the! first! industrial! revolution! to! the! second! industrial! revolution! and! the! postGWWII! boom.! This! has! also! an! incidence! on! the! identification! of! the! possible! sources! of! Swiss! growth! shifting! the! focus! from! protestant!immigration!and!stability!to!market!integration.! ! !

'


93!

Data'sources' BFS! 01:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Gross! domestic! product! (GDP),! production! approach! 1990G 2008.!Data!files:!www.bfs.admin.ch,!jeGeG04.03.01!and!jeGeG04.03.02.! ! BFS! 02:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Produktionskonto! der! Schweiz! 1990G1994.! Neuchâtel:! BFS,! years!1993!to!1996.! ! BFS! 03:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Landesindex! der! Konsumentenpreise,! Totalindex! auf! allen! Basen! seit! seiner! Einführung! (Total! Multibasis)! 1921G2014! (suGdG05.02.10).! I! used! column! 1.! The!different!columns!differ!only!because!of!rounding!errors.! ! HSSO! G.09.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! G.09.! Available! at:! http://www.fsw.uzh.ch/histstat/main.php.! ! HSSO! H.18.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! H.18.! Index! der! Konsumentenpreise! nach!Bedarfsgruppen!1890G1921.! ! HSSO! H.26.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! H.26.! Kleinhandelspreise! für! Lebensmittel!und!Kohle!in!den!Städten!Zürich,!Bern!und!Basel!1890G1921.! ! HSSO! H.39.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! H.39.! ProduzentenG! und! Importpreisindex!(GPI)!und!Konsumentenpreisindex!(KPI)!nach!Herkunft!der!Ware!1804G2003.! ! HSSO! Q.01.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! tables! Q.01,! K.16,! M.01,! N.01,! O.10,! P.01,! U.01.!Bruttowertschöpfung!nach!Branchen!1860G1890.!See!also!explanations!in!Siegenthaler,!H.! &! RitzmannGBlickenstorfer,! H.! éd.,! 1996.! Historische!Statistik!der!Schweiz," Zürich:" Chronos;" and" Projer,! E.,! 1990.! III!Schätzung!der!Bruttowertschöpfung!im!2.!Sektor!NFHProjekt:!Geldmenge!und! Wirtschaftswachstum!in!der!Schweiz,!1851!bis!1913!1.!Aufl.,!Zürich:!Sozialökonomisches!Seminar,! Abt.!Wirtschaftsgeschichte.! ! HSSO! Q.02.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.02.! Bruttowertschöpfung! nach! Branchen! 1960G1990.! See! also! Kneschaurek,! F.! et! al.,! 1983.! Daten! für! Branchenmodelle! der! Schweizerischen!Wirtschaft,!Zürich.! ! HSSO! Q.06:! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.06.! Sozialprodukt! nach! Verwendungsarten,!1948G1990.!!

94!


! HSSO! Q.16:! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.16.! Bruttoinlandprodukt! nach! Verwendungsarten!zu!Preisen!von!1990!und!nominal,!1948G2005! ! HSSO! Q.17.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.17.! Bruttowertschöpfung! nach! Branchen! 1890G1960.! See! also! RitzmannGBlickenstorfer,! H.,! 1998.! «!Alte! Statistiken!»! G! ein! Eldorado! für! Langzeitreihenbildner.! Indikatoren! zur! regionalen! Wirtschaftsentwicklung! im! Zeitraum!1888G1965.!Geschichte!und!Informatik,!9,!p.103‑120;!and!RitzmannGBlickenstorfer,!H.!&! David,! T.,! 2012.! Bruttoinlandprodukt! 1890G1960.! In! Wirtschaftsgeschichte! der! Schweiz! im! 20.! Jahrhundert.!Zürich.!I!also!used!unpublished!data!on!value!added!by!industry!and!corresponding! employment!figures!provided!to!me!by!Ritzmann.! ! ! !

'


95!

References' ! Andrist,!F.,!Anderson,!R.G.!&!Williams,!M.M.,!2000.!Real!output!in!Switzerland:!new!estimates!for! 1914G47.!Federal!Reserve!Bank!of!St.!Louis!Review,!p.43‑69.! Baffigi,!A.,!2011.!Italian!National!Accounts,!1861G2011.!Banca!d’Italia!Economic!History!Working! Papers,!(18).! Bairoch,! P.,! 1976.! Europe’s! gross! national! product,! 1800G1975.! Journal! of! European! Economic! History,!5,!p.273‑303.! Bairoch,! P.,! 1997.! Victoires!et!déboires:!histoire!économique!et!sociale!du!monde!du!XVIe!siècle!à! nos!jours,!Paris:!Gallimard.! Balke,!N.S.!&!Gordon,!R.J.,!1989.!The!Estimation!of!Prewar!Gross!National!Product:!Methodology! and!New!Evidence.!Journal!of!Political!Economy,!97(1),!p.38‑92.! BFS,!2011.!Der!Landesindex!der!Konsumentenpreise:!Dezember!2010=100.!Methodenübersicht!und! Gewichtung!2011,!Neuchâtel:!Bundesamt!für!Statistik.! Bolt,!J.!&!van!Zanden,!J.L.,!2013.!The!First!Update!of!the!Maddison!Project;!ReGEstimating!Growth! Before!1820.!Maddison!Project!Working!Paper,!(4).! Bordo,!M.,!Helbling,!T.!&!James,!H.,!2006.!Swiss!Exchange!Rate!Policy!in!the!1930s.!Was!the!Delay! in! Devaluation! Too! High! a! Price! to! Pay! for! Conservatism?! NBER! Working! Paper! Series,! (12491).! Available! at:! http://www.nber.org/papers/w12491! [Consulté! le! juillet! 16,! 2014].! Broadberry,!S.,!2003.!Relative!per!Capita!Income!Levels!in!the!United!Kingdom!and!the!United! States!since!1870:!Reconciling!TimeGSeries!Projections!and!DirectGBenchmark!Estimates.! The!Journal!of!Economic!History,!63(3),!p.852‑863.! Broadberry,! S.! &! Burhop,! C.,! 2007.! Comparative! Productivity! in! British! and! German! Manufacturing!Before!World!War!II:!Reconciling!Direct!Benchmark!Estimates!and!Time! Series!Projections.!The!Journal!of!Economic!History,!67(02),!p.315‑349.! Broadberry,! S.! &! Klein,! A.,! 2011.! Aggregate! and! Per! Capita! GDP! in! Europe,! 1870G2000:! Continental,! Regional! and! National! Data! with! Changing! Boundaries.! Unpublished! draft.! Available!

at:!

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Economic!

Growth.!

Elsevier,!

p.!

743‑815.!

Available!

at:!

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Appendix' Table'1:'Adjustment'ratios'between'HSSO'Q.18a'and'HSSO'Q.02' Ratio! HSSO!Q.18a!1990!to! HSSO!Q.02!1990!

Ratio! HSSO!Q.02!1965!to! HSSO!Q.17!1965!

! 1.!Sektor!

0.902!

0.876!

Nahrungs!und!Genussmittel!

0.961!

0.855!

Textilien!

0.891!

0.713!

Bekleidung!und!Schuhe!

0.612!

0.583!

Leder,!Kautschuk,!Kunststoff!

1.055!

1.246!

Papier!und!Karton!

1.149!

0.958!

Graphisches!Gewerbe!

0.975!

0.847!

Chemische!Produkte!

0.810!

1.260!

Metalle!

1.145!

1.336!

Maschinen/Elektronik!

0.995!

0.845!

Uhren!und!Schmuck!

0.889!

0.452!

übrige!Industrien!

0.732!

1.247!

Bauwirtschaft!

0.985!

0.799!

Elektrizität,!Gas!und!Wasser!

1.046!

1.740!

Finanzdienstleistungen!

0.717!

1.126!

Gastgewerbe!

1.151!

0.750!

VerkehrsG!und!Nachrichtenwesen!

0.929!

0.890!

1.197!

1.730!

Übrige!Dienstleistungen!(1)! Rationale:!!

This!table!measures!the!discrepancies!between!different!nominal!GDP!series!at!overlapping!periods.!

!

'

99!


100!

Table'2:'Average'deviation'between'value'added'per'worker'and'wages' !

Q.18a!1990!level!

Q.02!original!level!

Q.17a!1965!level!

All!industries!*!

(industryGwise,!

(singleGscalar)!

(industryGwise!

backward)!

foreward)!

1970!

2.22!

1.99!

0.81!

1975!

1.71!

1.49!

0.85!

1980!

1.57!

1.29!

0.88! !

Without!electricity!

Q.18a!1990!level!


Q.17a!1965!level!

1970!

1.33!

1.33!

0.71!

1975!

1.02!

0.99!

0.85!

1980!

0.91!

0.77!

0.89!

Without!electricity!and!chemicals!

Q.18a!1990!level!


Q.17a!1965!level!

1970!

1.16!

0.85!

0.61!

1975!

0.90!

0.58!

0.87!

1980!

0.90!

0.62!

0.90!

!

Rationale:! IndustryGwise! chaining! of! valueGadded! series! impacts! on! relative! productivity! differentials! between! industries.! This! table! compares! interGindustry! productivity! differentials! to! interGindustry! wage! differentials.! This! allows! evaluating! which!chaining!method!is!preferable.!The!fact!that!the!original!level!is!more!in!line!with!wages!suggests!that!single! scalarGadjustment! is! better! than! industryGwise! backward! chaining.! IndustryGwise! forward! adjustment! introduces! biases!after!1975.! Notes:! *!Nahrungs!und!Genussmittel,!Textilien,!Bekleidung!und!Schuhe,!Papier!und!Karton,!Graphisches!Gewerbe,!Chemische! Produkte,!Metalle!Maschinen!und!Elektronik,!Uhren!und!Schmuck,!übrige!Industrien,!Bauwirtschaft,!Elektrizität!Gas! und!Wasser,!VerkehrsG!und!Nachrichtenwesen.! Average!deviation!is!calculated!from!the!differences!between!value!added!per!worker!and!fitted!wages:! !=

! !

! ! (!!

− !! )! !!

where!!! !stands!for!fitted!wages!of!industry!i,!!! for,!value!added!per!worker!in!industry!i.!Wages!were!fitted!in!such!a! way!that!the!average!industry!wage!is!equal!to!average!value!added!of!all!industries.! ! !

!

'


101!

Table'3':'Industry'contribution'to'the'divergence'between'GDP'deflator'and'CPI'(base'year':'1926/29)' !R!01! R!02! R!03! R!04! R!05! R!06! R!07! R!08! R!09! R!10! R!11! R!12! R!13! R!14! R!15! R!16! R!17! R!18! R!20! R!21! R!22! R!23! R'24' R!25! R!26! R'27' R'28' R'29' R!31! R'32' R!33! R'34' R!35! R!36! R!37! R!38! R!39! R!40! R!41! R!42! R!46! !! Rationale:!

!Landwirtschaft! Gartenbau,!Forstwirtschaft,!Fischerei! Bäckerei,!Müllerei! Schokoladefabrikation! Metzgerei! Bierbrauerei! übige!Nahrungsmittelindustrie! Bearbeitung!des!Tabaks! Baumwolle! Seide! Kunstseide! Wolle! Stickerei! Textilveredelung! übrige!Textilindustrie! Wirkerei!und!Strickerei! Konfektion,!Wäsche!und!übrige! Bekleidung! Schuhe! Leder! Kautschuk,!Kunststoff! Papier,!Karton! Graphisches!Gewerbe! Holz,'Möbel,'Musikinstrumente' Steine,!Erden! Chemie! Metalle' Maschinenindustrie' Uhren,'Schmuck' Bergbau! Bauwirtschaft' Elektrizität,!Gas,!Wasser! Handel' Banken! Versicherungen! Gastgewerbe! Transport' PTT,!Radio,!TV! öffentliche!Verwaltung! Gesundheitswesen,!Körperpflege,! Unterricht,!Wissenschaft,!Kunst,! Erholung! Reinigungsgewerbe,!Hausdienst,(! Taglöhnerei)! Vermittlungsdienstleistungen! Total!

1955! G0.5! G0.3! 0.0! 0.0! G0.2! 0.0! G0.1! 0.2! G0.3! 0.4! 0.5! 0.2! G0.1! G0.2! G0.1! G0.3!

1956! G0.4! G0.3! G0.1! 0.0! G0.2! 0.0! G0.1! 0.2! G0.2! 0.4! 0.4! 0.2! G0.1! G0.2! 0.0! G0.2!

1957! G0.8! G0.3! G0.2! 0.0! G0.2! 0.0! G0.1! 0.2! G0.2! 0.4! 0.4! 0.2! G0.1! G0.2! 0.0! G0.3!

1958! G0.2! G0.2! G0.2! 0.0! G0.2! 0.0! G0.1! 0.3! G0.1! 0.4! 0.4! 0.2! G0.1! G0.2! 0.0! G0.3!

1959! G0.5! G0.2! G0.2! 0.0! G0.2! 0.0! G0.1! 0.2! 0.0! 0.4! 0.4! 0.2! G0.1! G0.1! 0.0! G0.2!

1960! 0.0! G0.2! G0.3! 0.0! G0.2! 0.0! G0.2! 0.2! 0.0! 0.4! 0.4! 0.2! 0.0! G0.2! 0.0! G0.2!

G0.3! 0.1! 0.1! 0.2! 0.2! G0.3! -1.4' 0.1! G0.6! -1.1' -4.5' -2.8' G0.1! -4.0' 1.0! -2.5' 0.0! 0.0! G0.5! 1.3! 0.0! 0.0!

G0.3! 0.0! 0.1! 0.3! 0.2! G0.3! -1.5' 0.0! G1.0! -1.3' -4.6' -2.9' G0.1! -4.0' 0.8! -2.7' 0.0! 0.0! G0.7! 1.4! G0.1! 0.0!

G0.3! 0.0! 0.1! 0.1! 0.1! G0.5! -1.4' G0.5! G1.2! -1.2' -4.4' -3.0' G0.1! -4.8' 0.8! -2.9' 0.0! 0.0! G0.8! 1.4! G0.1! 0.0!

G0.3! 0.0! 0.0! 0.0! 0.1! G0.6! -1.4' G0.4! G1.3! -1.0' -5.1' -2.5' G0.1! -4.2' 1.2! -2.4' 0.0! 0.0! G0.9! 1.5! G0.1! 0.0!

G0.2! 0.0! 0.1! 0.0! 0.2! G0.7! -1.6' G0.2! G1.2! -0.8' -4.9' -2.2' G0.1! -5.0' 0.9! -2.1' 0.0! 0.0! G1.2! 1.4! G0.1! 0.0!

G0.2! G0.1! 0.1! 0.1! 0.1! G0.7! -1.7' G0.5! G0.8! -0.8' -5.3' -2.2' G0.1! -5.6' 1.1! -1.9' 0.0! 0.0! G1.2! 1.3! G0.1! 0.0!

G0.1!

G0.1!

G0.1!

G0.1!

G0.1!

G0.1!

0.0! 0.0! G16.3!

0.0! 0.0! G17.4!

0.0! 0.0! G20.0!

0.0! 0.0! G18.0!

0.0! 0.0! G18.3!

0.0! 0.0! G18.9!

This! table! decomposes! the! difference! between! double! deflated! GDP! and! CPI! deflated! GDP! into! industries’! contribution.!Industries!that!use!imported!raw!materials!and!strongly!regulated!sectors!have!contributed!most!to!the! divergence!between!the!two!deflators.! Notes:! Industry! deflators! are! obtained! by! dividing! nominal! value! added! by! real! value! added.! These! industry! deflators! can! then! be! compared! to! the! CPI.! The! implicit! aggregate! GDP! deflator! is! a! weighted! average! of! the! industry! deflators,! where! the! weights! correspond! to! the! industries’! shares! in! total! nominal! value! added.! The! reported! industry! contributions! are! ratios! between! doubleGdeflated! GDP! and! CPIGdeflated! GDP! multiplied! by! the! industry’s! share! in! nominal!GDP.!

102!


Table'4':'Industry'contribution'to'the'divergence'between'GDP'deflator'and'CPI'(base'year':'1985)' 1960!

1961!

1962!

1963!

1964!

G0.57!

G0.77!

G0.95!

G0.82!

G0.92!

0.66!

0.78!

0.68!

0.38!

0.42!

G0.70!

G0.74!

G0.63!

G0.60!

G0.59!

0.07!

0.06!

0.06!

0.08!

0.07!


G0.35!

G0.32!

G0.21!

G0.09!

G0.09!

SGZ!06!

Papier!und!Karton!

G0.24!

G0.22!

G0.22!

G0.17!

G0.15!

SGZ!07!


0.37!

0.30!

0.31!

0.27!

0.29!

SGZ!08!

Chemische!Produkte!

G1.06!

G0.87!

G1.11!

G1.25!

G1.37!

SGZ!09!

Metalle!

G0.63!

G0.68!

G0.38!

G0.03!

G0.20!

SGZ!10_11!

Maschinen'und'Elektronik'

1.22'

0.88'

0.47!

0.31!

G0.10!

SGZ!12!

1.37'

1.28'

1.28'

1.23'

1.14'

SGZ!13!

Uhren'und'Schmuck' Uebrige!Industrien:!Holz!und!Möbel,!Steine!und!Erden,! Bergbau,!Musikinstrumente,!Spielwaren,!Sportgeräte!

0.07!

G0.14!

G0.26!

0.04!

G0.06!

SGZ!14!

Bauwirtschaft'

2.71'

2.10'

1.68'

1.22'

0.88'

SGZ!15!


G0.26!

G0.25!

G0.35!

G0.36!

G0.57!

SGZ!16!

Banken,!Versicherungen!

0.99!

0.93!

0.90!

0.84!

0.75!

SGZ!17!

Gastgewerbe!

0.45!

0.35!

0.26!

0.25!

0.15!

SGZ!18!

VerkehrsG!und!Nachrichtenwesen! Übrige!Dienstleistungen:!Oeffentliche!Verwaltung,! Gesundheit,'Bildung,'Kunst,'Erholung,'Kirche!

0.12!

0.16!

0.09!

G0.06!

G0.13!

8.05'

7.27'

7.19'

6.19'

5.44'

12.27!

10.13!

8.80!

7.42!

4.97!

! SGZ!01!

! Primärsektor!

SGZ!02!

NahrungsG!und!Genussmittel!

SGZ!03!

Textilien!

SGZ!04!


SGZ!05!

SGZ!19! Total! Rationale:!!

!

This! table! decomposes! the! difference! between! double! deflated! GDP! and! CPI! deflated! GDP! into! industries’! contribution.!Industries!that!use!imported!raw!materials!and!strongly!regulated!sectors!have!contributed!most!to!the! divergence!between!the!two!deflators.! Notes:! Industry! deflators! are! obtained! by! dividing! nominal! value! added! by! real! value! added.! These! industry! deflators! can! then! be! compared! to! the! CPI.! The! implicit! aggregate! GDP! deflator! is! a! weighted! average! of! the! industry! deflators,! where! the! weights! correspond! to! the! industries’! shares! in! total! nominal! value! added.! The! reported! industry! contributions! are! ratios! between! doubleGdeflated! GDP! and! CPIGdeflated! GDP! multiplied! by! the! industry’s! share! in! nominal!GDP.!

! !

!


103!

Table'5:'Swiss'GDP'per'capita'in'international'comparison'1851'to'2000' GDP!per!capita!in!1990!GearyGKhamis!dollars!

USA!

France!

Germany!

Belgium!

Netherlands!

Denmark!

12!Western! Europe!

Switzerland! (Maddison!2003)!

Switzerland! (double! deflation)!

Switzerland! (CPI)!

1568! 2219! 2288! 2376! 2876! 2965! 3610! 4710! 4793! 2573! 5186! 7398! 12824! 14766! 17647! 20392! 22057!

1408! 2112! 2044! 2428! 2985! 3348! 3331! 4051! 5406! 4514! 3881! 7705! 11966! 14114! 15929! 18944! 20801!

1886! 2861! 3136! 3428! 3731! 4064! 4413! 5054! 5150! 4333! 5462! 6952! 12170! 14467! 17197! 20809! 23701!

2388! 2876! 2985! 3186! 3329! 3783! 4599! 5689! 5544! 2686! 5996! 8287! 13081! 14705! 17262! 22148! 25112!

1662! 2112! 2240! 2523! 3017! 3705! 4166! 5075! 5993! 5066! 6943! 8812! 13945! 15227! 18452! 22966! 24789!

1697! 2369! 2449! 2703! 3155! 3442! 3609! 4452! 5095! 4129! 4944! 7498! 12070! 13958! 16793! 20131! 22359!

1514! 2645! 2400! 3182! 3833! 4331! 4618! 6332! 6360! 7752! 9064! 12457! 18204! 18779! 21487! 22475! 25104!

2222! 3309! 3597! 4711! 5765! 6732! 6343! 8418! 7915! 7322! 9023! 12238! 18022! 18732! 21487! 21642! 24690!

1385! 2058! 2286! 3041! 3936! 4732! 4310! 5660! 5872! 5663! 7260! 10323! 17424! 17513! 21487! 20805! 24371!

Switzerland!(CPI)!

! Ratio!! ! Switzerland/Highest! Switzerland! (double!deflation)!

1851! 8! 3! 10! 0.89! 1.31! 0.82! 1875! 4! 2! 8! ! 1.12! 1.40! 0.87! ! 1882! 5! 2! 6! ! 0.98! 1.47! 0.93! ! 1890! 5! 1! 5! ! 1.18! 1.74! 1.13! ! 1900! 3! 1! 3! ! 1.21! 1.83! 1.25! ! 1910! 3! 1! 2! ! 1.26! 1.96! 1.38! ! 1922! 3! 1! 5! ! 1.28! 1.76! 1.19! ! 1929! 2! 1! 3! ! 1.42! 1.89! 1.27! ! 1939! 2! 1! 4! ! 1.25! 1.55! 1.15! ! 1945! 2! 2! 3! ! 1.88! 1.77! 1.37! ! 1950! 2! 2! 2! ! 1.83! 1.83! 1.47! ! 1960! 1! 1! 2! ! 1.66! 1.63! 1.38! ! 1973! 1! 1! 1! ! 1.51! 1.49! 1.44! ! 1980! 1! 1! 2! ! 1.35! 1.34! 1.25! ! ! 1990! 2! 2! 2! 1.28! 1.28! 1.28! ! 2000! 4! 5! 9! ! 1.12! 1.08! 1.03! ! 2008! 5! 7! 9! !!! 1.12! 1.10! 1.09! !!! Rationale:!This!table!compares!the!different!GDP!per!capita!series!internationally.!!

!


! !!

!!

!

! Ratio!! ! Switzerland/Europe!12! Switzerland!(CPI)!

!

Switzerland! (double!deflation)!

!


Ranking!! ! ! Switzerland!among!13!

!!

!!

!

1924! 2599! 3338! 3392! 4091! 4964! 5540! 6899! 6561! 11709! 9561! 11328! 16689! 18577! 23201! 28702! 31251!

Switzerland!(CPI)!

!

2451! 3434! 3643! 4009! 4492! 4611! 4637! 5503! 6262! 7056! 6939! 8645! 12025! 12931! 16430! 21046! 24602!

Switzerland! (double!deflation)!

!

UK!

1851! 1875! 1882! 1890! 1900! 1910! 1922! 1929! 1939! 1945! 1950! 1960! 1973! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2008!


!

!

0.62! 0.77! 0.66! 0.79! 0.85! 0.87! 0.83! 0.92! 0.97! 0.66! 0.95! 1.10! 1.09! 1.01! 0.93! 0.78! 0.80!

0.91! 0.96! 0.99! 1.18! 1.28! 1.36! 1.15! 1.22! 1.21! 0.63! 0.94! 1.08! 1.08! 1.01! 0.93! 0.75! 0.79!

0.57! 0.60! 0.63! 0.76! 0.88! 0.95! 0.78! 0.82! 0.90! 0.48! 0.76! 0.91! 1.04! 0.94! 0.93! 0.72! 0.78!

The! periodization! corresponds! to! international! business! cycles.! Between! 1890! and! 2000! the! periodization! corresponds! to! the! one! proposed! by! (Müller! et! al.! 2012).! 1875! has! been! chosen! because! several! of! the! selected! countries!witnessed!negative!growth!in!this!year.!1882!corresponds!to!a!financial!crisis!in!Lyon!(Bairoch!1997,!vol.!2,!

104!


p.!407G408)!and!to!a!downGturn!in!Switzerland.!And!1851!was!chosen!simply!because!it!is!the!beginning!of!the!Swiss! series.! Sources:!Switzerland:!see!text;!others:!the!Maddison!database!(Bolt!&!van!Zanden!2013).! 12! Western! European! countries:! Austria,! Belgium,! Denmark,! Finland,! France,! Germany,! Italy,! Netherlands,! Norway,! Sweden,!Switzerland,!United!Kingdom.! ! Table'6:'Swiss'GDP'growth'in'international'comparison' !

!

!

!

! !

!

!

!!

Swiss!GDP! growth! (double! deflation)!

Ranking! Switzerland! among!13!

Difference:! SwitzerlandG Europe12!

Swiss!GDP! !! (CPI)!



1851G1875!

2.3!

6!

0.2!

2.2!

6!

0.2!

0.5! ! ! 1.9! 0.8! !

2.1!

3!

0.8!

4.0!

1!

2.1!

3.8!

2!

1.4!

3.1!

3!

1.3!

G0.5!

12!

G0.9!

4.5!

5!

0.8!

0.8!

10!

G1.1!

0.2!

5!

3.6!

6.4!

8!

2.0!

5.0!

4!

0.0!

5.6!

2!

1.1!

G0.1!

13!

G2.3!

1875G1882!

1.8!

6!

1882G1890!

3.8!

1!

1890G1900!

3.2!

3!

1900G1910!

2.8!

3!

1.0!

G0.6! ! ! 1.0! G2.1! !

1910G1922!

G0.2!

12!

1922G1929!

4.7!

3!

1929G1939!

G0.2!

13!

1939G1945!

G0.5!

3.0!

1.1! ! ! G0.5! 0.0! !

5.6!

9!

1950G1960!

4.5!

7!

1960G1973!

4.5!

7!

0.4!

!

5!

1945G1950!

1973G1980!

!

13!

1980G1990!

2.1!

9!

1990G2000!

0.7!

13!

G1.9!

!

0.0! ! ! G1.5! 0.6! !!!

2.8!

3!

0.6!

0.3!

13!

G1.9!

2000G2008! 2.2! 4! 2.5! 3! 1.0! Rationale:! This! table! compares! GDP! growth! rates! internationally.! The! Period! 1882! to! 1910! stands! out! as! the! most! important!growth!period.!Grey!cells!in!columns!1!and!4!notify!periods!of!contraction!in!international!business!cycles,! while!grey!cells!in!columns!3!and!6!mark!periods!when!Swiss!growth!is!slower!than!that!of!the!12!European!countries! in! total.! The! correspondence! between! grey! cells! in! columns! 1! and! 3! with! columns! 4! and! 6! illustrates! that! Swiss! growth!is!rather!proGcyclic.!

!

'


105!

Table'7:'Swiss'GDP'per'capita'growth'in'international'comparison' !

!

!

!

!!

Swiss!GDP! growth! (double! deflation)!


Difference:! SwitzerlandG Europe12! !!

1851G1875!

1.7!

4!

0.3!

1875G1882!

1.2!

3!

0.7!

2.2! ! ! 0.5! 0.7! !

1882G1890!

3.4!

1!

1890G1900!

2.0!

3!

!

1900G1910!

1.6!

5!

1910G1922!

G0.5!

12!

1922G1929!

4.1!

2!

1929G1939!

G0.6!

13!

1939G1945!

G1.3!

5!

1.1! ! ! G2.0! 2.2! !

1945G1950!

4.3!

10!

0.6!

G0.9!

!

!

1950G1960!

3.1!

7!

1960G1973!

3.0!

12!

1973G1980!

0.6!

13!

G1.2! ! ! G0.7! G1.5! !

1980G1990!

1.4!

12!

G0.5!

0.1!

13!

1.7!

5!

G1.8! ! ! 0.3! !!

1990G2000! 2000G2008! Rationale:!see!table!6.! !

!

!

'

!

!

!

!

Swiss!GDP! (CPI)!



1.7!

4!

0.3!

1.5!

2!

1.0!

3.6!

1!

2.4!

2.6!

1!

1.1!

1.9!

4!

1.0!

G0.8!

12!

G1.2!

4.0!

3!

0.9!

0.4!

9!

G1.0!

G0.6!

5!

2.8!

5.1!

8!

1.4!

3.6!

6!

G0.7!

4.1!

6!

0.4!

0.1!

13!

G2.0!

2.1!

6!

0.2!

G0.3!

13!

G2.2!

2.0!

4!

0.7!

106!


Table'8:'Benchmark'comparison'and'time'series'projection'for'1905'GDP'per'capita' !!

! Tea,!coffee!(1lb)!

!!

!!

UK! !! USA! !! ExpendiG ExpendiG Budget! Prices! ture! Prices! ture! shares! (pence)! (pence)! (pence)! (pence)! ! ! ! 0.053! !! 18.000! 0.954! !! 15.415! 0.817! !!

Sugar!(1lb)!

0.044!

Bacon!and!sausage!(1lb)!

0.064!

Beef!and!veal!(1lb)!

0.139!

Pork!(1lb)!

0.052!

Lamb!and!mutton!(1lb)!

0.054!

Cheese!(1lb)!

0.027!

Butter!and!margarine!(1lb)!

0.117!

Potatoes!(7lb)!

0.057!

Flour!and!meal!(7lb)!

0.060!

Bread!(4lb)!

0.187!

Milk!(qt)!

0.091!

Eggs!(doz)!

0.054!

Total!

1.000!

! ! ! ! ! ! !

8.000!

0.512!

8.000!

1.112!

8.000!

0.416!

8.250!

0.446!

7.000!

0.189! 1.521!

3.000!

0.171!

9.000!

0.540!

5.000!

0.935!

! ! !

0.088!

13.000!

!

!

2.000!

3.500!

0.319!

12.000!

0.648!

!!

7.850!

!

Currency'conversion'

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

' ' ! !

PPP!

!

! !

100! ' ' ! ! 1.00! 1.00! ! !

!Benchmark'comparison'

!!

!! !!

!! !!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

Nominal!GDP!per!capita!! GDP!per!capita!in!1905!PPP!£! GDP!per!capita!relative!to!UK!

GDP!per!capita!relative!to!USA! !!

!! !!

!Time'series'projection'

!

! !

!

! !

Relative!to!UK!

!

!!

Relative!to!USA!

!

!

Relative!to!UK!

! !

! !

Relative!to!USA!

!

!

Real!GDP!pc!(double!deflation)!

Real!GDP!pc!(CPI!deflation)!

9.250!

0.592!

7.375!

1.025!

6.500!

0.338!

7.375!

0.398!

10.000!

0.270!

16.750!

1.960!

7.000!

0.399!

12.500!

0.750!

11.125!

2.080!

4.500!

0.410!

14.400!

0.778!

!!

!

Exchange!rate!(per!£)!

0.121!

9.938!

!

'

Price!level!relative!to!UK!

2.750!

'

! £M.!

!

47.8!

! !

! !

!

100! !!

!

97! !

GK!$!

'

4340!

!

! 100! !

!

95! !

$M.!

Double!deflation!

!

!

USA/UK!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

0.108!

4.758!

0.304!

8.218!

1.142!

8.520!

0.443!

8.218!

0.444!

8.607!

0.232!

14.143!

1.655!

3.330!

0.190!

11.505!

0.690!

5.017!

0.938!

2.170!

0.197!

10.298!

0.556!

!!

7.194! '

!! !!

!

!

310.6!

GK!$!

! !

50.5! ! ! 106! 100! !! !! ! !

25.17! 23.07!

SFr.M.!

! !

!

PPP!£!

1004.0! 43.5! 91! 86!

! ! 4660!

92!

! GK!$!

!

6109!

!

103! !!

!

135!

!

100! !

!

131!

GK!$!

GK!$!

4302!

!

! 106! !

!

99!

!

100! !

!

94!

!Error'margin'between'benchmark'and'time'series'projection! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

!

0.293!

2.465!

127! ' ' ! ! 4.86! 6.15! ! !

!

! ! 4521!

!

5.536!

!

47.8! ! PPP!£! ! 100! 95! !! !!

PPP!£!

GK!$!

! !

CH! ExpendiG Prices! ture! (pence)! (pence)!

!

4583!

!

! !

!

! !

G2.41!

CH/USA!

! !

!

CH/UK!

52.06!

48.40! ! ! ! ! CPI!deflation! !! G0.02! 8.89! !! 8.86! ! ! Rationale:!This!table!confronts!international!benchmark!comparisons!and!time!series!projections.!The!confrontation! corroborates!the!CPI!deflated!GDP!series!and!invalidates!the!double!deflated!one.! Notes:!The!underlying!consumption!basket,!budget!shares,!as!well!as!British!and!American!prices!are!from!Williamson! (1995).!Swiss!prices!are!from!HSSO!H.26!averages!for!Zürich,!Bern!and!Basel.!I!excluded!housing!rents!from!the!PPP! consumption!basket,!because!these!are!highly!dependent!on!the!sample!cities!and!might!not!be!representative!for!the! national!price!level.!!


107!

Figure'1:'Swiss'GDP'per'capita'according'to'different'sources'

! ! !

'

108!


Figure'2:'Value'added'per'worker'(HSSO'Q.02'original'level)'and'wages'(HSSO'G.02),'1970'

! Rationale:! Figures! 1! to! 6! compare! relative! productivity! differentials! between! industries! with! relative! wage! differences.! At! all! considered! periods,! the! productivity! differentials! from! the! original! valueGadded! level! fits! wage! differentials!better.! ! Figure'3:'Value'added'per'worker'(HSSO'Q.02'adjusted'industry-wise'to'HSSO'Q.18a)'and'wages'(HSSO'G.02),' 1970'

! !


109!


! Figure'5:'Value'added'per'worker'(HSSO'Q.02'adjusted'industry-wise'to'HSSO'Q.18a)'and'wages'(HSSO'G.02),' 1975'

! !

110!



! Figure'7:'Value'added'per'worker'(HSSO'Q.02'adjusted'industry-wise'to'HSSO'Q.18a)'and'wages'(HSSO'G.02),' 1980'

! !


111!

Figure'8:'GDP'deflator'and'consumer'price'index'(1990=100),'1851-2008''

! Figure'9:'Real'GDP'according'to'different'deflation'methods'

! ! !

!

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Figure'10:'Nominal'exchange'rates'of'the'Swiss'franc'(1946=100),'1946-1999'

! Source:!Officer!(2014).! Figure'11:'Real'exchange'rates'of'the'Swiss'franc'(1946=100),'1946-1999'

! Note:!Real!exchange!rate!=!nominal!exchange!rate!(1946=100)!+!CPI!growth!Switzerland!–!CPI!growth!other!country! Source:!nominal!exchange!rates!from!Officer!(2014);!CPI!from!Schularick!and!Taylor!(2012).!


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Figure'12:'Import'prices'and'domestic'prices'(1945=100),'1914-2003'

! Source:!Producer!prices!from!HSSO!H.39;!CPI!from!BFS!03.!

! Figure'13:'Implicit'import'and'export'price'indices'(1948=100),'1948-2004'

! ! ! !

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Figure'14:'Terms'of'trade'(1948=100),'1948-2004'

! ! ! ! ! ! !


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Figure'16:'Swiss'real'GDP'per'capita'in'international'comparison'

! ! Figure'17:'Swiss,'British'and'American'real'GDP'per'capita'(CPI-deflated)''

! ! ! ! !

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Figure'18:'GDP'Deflator'and'CPI,'UK'1851'to'2003'

! Rationale:!In!the!case!of!the!UK,!the!GDP!deflator!and!the!CPI!diverge!only!little!(cp.!Figure!7).! Sources:!GDP!deflator:!after!1965!from!OECD!National!Accounts;!1855G1965!from!Feinstein!(Feinstein!1972,!p.table! 61).!CPI!from!O’Donoghue!et!al!(2004).! Figure'19:'GDP'Deflator'and'CPI,'USA'1851'to'1990'

! Rationale:!In!the!case!of!the!USA,!the!GDP!deflator!and!the!CPI!diverge!much!less!than!in!Switzerland!(cp.!Figure!7).! Sources:! GDP! deflator:! 1870G1890! from! Balke! and! Gordon! (1989);! 1890G1929! NGDP/RGDP! from! Kendrik! (1961,! p.293,! 296);! 1929G1950! from! BEA! (United! States! Bureau! of! Economic! Analysis! 1993,! p.171);! 1950G1959! from! BEA! (United! States! Department! of! Commerce! 1998,! p.159),! 1959G1990! from! Seskin! (1999).! CPI! from! Schularik! et! al.! (2012).!


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Figure'20:'CPI'/'GDP'Deflator'(2005=1)'for'13'countries'

! Rationale:!In!most!OECD!countries!the!GDP!deflator!and!the!CPI!diverged!only!little!over!the!last!40!years.!Contrary!to! Switzerland,!the!CPI!is!steeper!than!the!GDP!deflator!(cp.!Figure!7).! Sources:!GDP!Deflator!from!OECD!National!Accounts,!GDP!by!output!approach!2005!benchmark;!CPI!from!Schularick! and!Taylor!(Schularick!&!Taylor!2012).! ! !

!

!

! ! Regional)Employment,)GDP,)and)Value)Added) per$Worker%in%Switzerland%from%1860%to%2008!

! Christian!Stohr! University!of!Geneva! Paul!Bairoch!Institute!for!Economic!History! !

Abstract'

This! paper! describes! the! sources! and! methods! used! to! elaborate! a! new! data! set! on! regional! economic! growth.! The! data! set! provides! information! on! population,! employment,! aggregate! productivity,! and! output! for! two! different! geographical! levels.! The! following! description! is! structured! in! four! sections.! I! start! with! a! portrait! of! the! territorial! nomenclatures! used! in! this! dataset.! I! argue! that! it! is! important! to! consider! different! geographical! levels,! because! the! economic! mechanisms! operating! at! these! levels! can! be! distinct.! In! section! II,! I! discuss! the! employment!data,!which!constitutes!the!core!material.!This!discussion!focuses!on!problems!with! the!sources!and!difficulties!related!to!the!harmonization!of!industrial!sectors.!Section!III!explains! how! the! employment! data! has! been! combined! with! data! on! value! added! in! order! to! estimate! regional! productivity! and! output.! To! conclude,! I! highlight! the! advantages! and! shortcomings! of! the!database.! ! ! ! ! ! '

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Christian!Stohr!/!Regional!employment,!GDP,!and!value!added!per!worker!in!Switzerland,!1860!to!2008!

Introduction' Over!the!last!decade!there!have!been!made!considerable!efforts!to!elaborate!historical!datasets! on!subnational!territorial!entities.!Several!studies!have!elaborated!regional!GDP!series!(Geary!&! Stark! 2002;! Crafts! 2005;! Schulze! 2007;! Buyst! 2009;! Enflo! et! al.! 2010;! Felice! 2010;! MartínezG Galarraga!et!al.!forthcoming).!Data!on!regional!industrial!structure!was!integrated!in!a!series!of! studies!on!the!determinants!of!industry!location!(Kim!1999;!Wolf!2005;!Crafts!&!Mulatu!2006;! MartinezGGalarraga! 2012;! Klein! &! Crafts! 2012).! Older! datasets! on! sizes! of! cities! (Bairoch! et! al.! 1988;!De!Vries!1984;!Eggiman!1998)!have!experienced!a!renaissance!(Bosker!&!Buringh!2010;! Bosker,! Buringh,! et! al.! 2008;! Bosker,! Brakman,! et! al.! 2008;! Malanima! 2010);! and! new! datasets! have!been!elaborated!(Boustan!et!al.!2013;!Ploeckl!2013).! In!Switzerland,!given!its!federalist!structure,!there!has!always!been!a!certain!interest!in!regional,! particulary! cantonal,! statistics.! Practically! any! statistic! of! the! population! census,! the! industrial! census,! the! factory! census,! or! the! cattle! census! was! published! for! the! cantons.! And! many! statistics!are!also!available!for!the!more!detailed!geographical!level,!which!are!the!districts.!The! historical!statistics!of!Switzerland!has!collected!employment!data!by!industry!and!canton!from! the!population!censuses.!The!authors!highlight!the!difficulty!to!provide!homogenous!long!series! of!employment!statistics!for!Switzerland,!which!results!from!frequent!changes!in!the!definition! of!industries!and!the!concept!of!employment!itself.!Hence!the!published!series!never!cover!the! whole! period! and! the! reported! industry! aggregates! are! not! always! strictly! comparable.! They! also! point! out! that! the! original! data! source! would! allow! for! the! construction! of! a! finer! dataset! based! on! the! districts.! The! gain! of! such! a! project! would! “consist! in! a! much! more! precise! quantification!and!description!than!has!been!possible!to!date!of!the!Swiss!population’s!individual! stops! on! its! journey! to! the! modern! service! economy”! (Siegenthaler! &! RitzmannGBlickenstorfer! 1996,!table!F.10!and!comments!on!p.389G393).!Indeed,!as!I!will!argue!below,!the!cantons!are!not! optimal! entities! for! the! analysis! of! spatial! economic! phenomena.! Two! later! publications! have! used! districtGlevel! employment! data! by! industry! (Frey! 1997;! Fritzsche! et! al.! 2001).! However,! both!publications!are!essentially!limited!to!comparisons!between!1870!and!1910;!the!data!has! not!been!published;!and!it!is!unclear!to!what!extent!they!have!accounted!for!changing!definitions! of!industries.! The!situation!is!clearly!different!when!it!comes!to!data!on!GDP,!value!added,!and!productivity.!In! this! domain! Switzerland! has! generally! been! an! underdeveloped! country.! Even! for! the! national! level! series! on! GDP! and! value! added! by! industry! are! fragmented.! A! plausible! and! continuous! longGterm!series!of!GDP!from!1851!to!2005!has!been!proposed!only!recently!by!Hiestand!et!al.! (Hiestand! et! al.! 2012;! Müller! et! al.! 2012).! The! same! publication! has! combined! cantonal! GDP! series!for!the!period!1890!to!1960!elaborated!by!RitzmannGBlickenstorfer!with!older!estimates! of!cantonal!revenue!for!the!period!1948!to!1990!(HSSO!Q.5).!The!resulting!series!are!available!as!


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cantonal!income!per!capita!from!the!historical!statistics!online!(HSSO!Q.19).!The!integration!of! Ritzmann’s! cantonal! estimates! is! somewhat! ambiguous.! Since! Ritzmann’s! estimates! of! value! added!by!industry!are!mainly!based!on!the!production!approach!and!since!they!were!combined! with! employment! data! that! counts! workers! at! their! place! of! residency! rather! than! at! their! working! place,! the! resulting! series! corresponds! conceptually! to! Gross! national! product! (GNP)! rather!than!cantonal!income,!however!it!does!not!include!incomes!that!were!generated!outside! of!Switzerland.!The!difference!between!cantonal!income!or!GNP!and!GDP!can!be!relatively!large! at!the!regional!level,!if!commuting!and!investment!of!residents!outside!the!region!are!important.! As! I! will! show! in! this! paper! commuting! between! certain! regions! (e.g.! Baselstadt! and! Basel! Landschaft)!is!very!important!already!in!1910.!Hence,!it’s!fair!to!say!that!a!series!of!regional!GDP! with!comparable!geographical!entities!is!lacking!so!far.! This!paper!proposes!to!elaborate!an!extensive!dataset!on!regional!employment,!GDP,!and!value! added! per! worker.! I! will! go! beyond! cantonal! statistics! and! collect! data! for! the! more! detailed! district!level.! From!these! entities,! I! reconstruct! 97! functional! micro! regions! and! 16! large! labor! market!regions.!The!employment!data!will!be!harmonized!over!long!periods!(54!industries!from! 1888! to! 2000! and! 19! industries! from! 1860! to! 1888)! and! it! will! account! for! commuting! and! seasonal! worker! occupation.! Then! the! resulting! employment! statistics! will! be! combined! with! data! on! value! added! by! industry! for! the! national! level! in! order! to! estimate! GDP.! The! resulting! dataset!is!unique!in!scope!and!allows!for!extensive!analyses!of!spatial!economic!phenomena.!

Territorial'subdivisions' Different! types! of! territorial! subdivisions! exist! in! Switzerland.! The! institutional! entities! order! the!territory!on!three!distinct!hierarchical!levels:!26!cantons,!184!districts!(internal!subdivisions! of! cantons),! and! 2896! municipalities! (state! in! the! year! 2000,! see! map! 1).! These! entities! have! been! established! in! a! historical! process.! Since! 1798! the! Swiss! territory! has! been! organized! in! cantons,! districts! and! municipalities.! While! cantons! and! municipalities! play! an! important! political! role,! the! districts! have! only! administrative! importance.! The! main! advantage! of! these! institutional! entities! for! the! historian! is! that! they! have! been! the! key! territorial! entities! for! statistical!data!publication!since!1798!and!that!they!have!remained!remarkably!stable!until!the! year!2000.!Most!statistics!published!since!the!formation!of!the!modern!Federal!state!in!1848!are! reported! for! the! national! and! the! cantonal! level.! For! multidimensional! data,! for! example! employment! by! industry,! publication! for! the! municipal! level! was! impossible! before! numerical! data! treatment,! so! that! the! districts! were! often! the! lowest! level! for! which! such! data! was! published.!This!gives!a!certain!importance!to!the!districts!for!historical!statistics!(Schuler!et!al.! 2005).!A!clear!disadvantage!of!the!institutional!entities!is!that!they!are!not!comparable!in!terms! of! size.! This! is! particularly! true! with! the! cantons.! Table! 1! reports! descriptive! statistics! of! area!

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size!for!the!different!territorial!subdivisions.!The!smallest!canton!fits!183!times!into!the!largest! one!and!for!the!districts!the!factor!is!even!bigger.!The!standard!deviation!of!the!cantons’!areas!is! even! larger! than! the! mean! area! of! a! canton.! The! ratio! between! the! largest! and! the! smallest! district!is!even!bigger!than!for!cantons,!but!the!coefficient!of!variation!shows!that!districts!are!on! average!more!comparable!than!cantons.!To!some!extent!different!sizes!are!acceptable,!because! alpine!regions!are!often!large!but!include!a!lot!of!unproductive!and!not!inhabitable!terrain.!But! the! large! differences! among! the! cantons! and! the! districts! even! outside! the! alpine! area! are! a! serious! problem! for! statistical! analysis! of! spatial! economic! phenomena.! Another! problem! of! cantons!and!districts!is!that!economic,!social!and!cultural!structures!do!not!always!coincide!with! administrative! borders.! In! many! cases! administrative! borders! separate! completely! integrated! agglomerations! or! lump! together! regions! that! belong! to! different! functional! areas.! To! tackle! these!problems,!different!territorial!subdivisions!have!been!constructed!for!spatial!analysis.! The! most! important! territorial! entities! for! spatial! analysis! are! the! 106! MS! regions! (movement! spatial),!the!16!bassins!d’emploi!(hereafter!BE!regions),!and!the!7!NUTS!II!regions!(Nomenclature! des! Unites! Territoriales! Statistiques).! MS! regions! are! comparable! and! functional! microGregions! that! were! constructed! in! 1982! for! the! analysis! of! spatial! mobility! (Bassand! et! al.! 1985).! They! have! been! constructed! from! existing,! policy! relevant,! and! functional! regions:! the! territorial! planning! regions! of! the! flat! country;! and! the! HIG! (Bundesgesetz! über! die! Investitionshilfe! für! Berggebiete)!regions!of!the!alpine!zone!that!have!been!elaborated!in!1974!for!the!administration! of!subsidies!to!mountain!regions!(Schuler!et!al.!2005).!MS!regions!can!be!qualified!as!local!labor! market! regions.! Schuler! et! al.! classify! MS! regions! into! 12! types! of! regions! according! to! their! social,!cultural,!and!economic!structures!as!well!as!their!interaction!with!other!regions!(Schuler! 1983).! MS! regions! are! more! homogenous! and! comparable! in! terms! of! area! size! than! the! institutional! entities! (see! table! 1,! map! 2).! However! a! certain! inequality! remains.! This! is! partly! due!to!the!fact!that!MS!regions!of!the!alpine!zone!are!larger!because!they!include!large!parts!of! uninhabitable!terrain.! The! BE! regions! constitute! regional! labor! markets! composed! of! several! MS! regions.! BE! regions! essentially! reproduce! a! centralGplace! structure! organized! around! the! MS! regions! that! correspond!to!the!large!and!intermediate!urban!centers!of!Switzerland.!Surrounding!MS!regions! were!aggregated!to!the!centers!according!to!patterns!of!spatial!mobility!(Schuler!et!al.!2005).!BE! regions!are!the!most!relevant!for!the!analysis!of!regional!economic!structures.!This!is!why!the! OECD! also! uses! those! regions! for! international! comparisons! of! regional! disparities,! while! for! most!other!countries!NUTS!II!regions!are!used!(OECD!2001).!BE!regions!are!not!only!functional! but! also! comparable! among! each! other! (see! table! 1,! map! 2).! Differences! in! size! among! these! regions! are! due! to! three! facts:! larger! cities! attract! commuters! from! farther! away! (e.g.! Zürich);! some!cities!operate!as!centers!for!large!rural!areas!(e.g.!Chur,!Sion);!and!some!cities!have!part!of!


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their! hinterland! in! neighboring! countries,! which! are! not! included! (Genève,! Basel,! Lugano).! Ideally!crossGborder!regions!should!be!considered!included!entirely.! The! elaboration! of! EurostatGcompatible! NUTS! II! regions! has! started! 1989.! But! the! process! has! rapidly! turned! into! a! political! issue! with! certain! cantons! refusing! to! be! aggregated! and! others! spanning! together! in! order! to! militate! for! a! strong! common! position! (Schuler! et! al.! 2005).! In! 1997,! Switzerland! finally! adopted! a! supracantonal! subdivision! of! the! territory! into! 7! regions,! aggregated! from! cantons.! However! a! number! of! problems! are! inherent! to! this! territorial! decomposition.! First,! for! a! subdivision! in! only! 7! regions,! the! differences! in! area! sizes! are! considerable! (table! 1,! map! 3).! Second,! such! territorial! delimitations! stand! at! odds! with! functional!integration!of!areas.!Map!4!illustrates!the!top!metropolitan!regions!of!the!country!and! the!NUTS!II!regions.!Zürich!is!the!largest!and!most!important!metropolitan!area!but!the!smallest! NUTS! II! region.! In! fact,! parts! of! Zürich’s! metropolitan! area! fall! into! the! NUTS! II! regions! of! Eastern,! Central,! and! Northwestern! Switzerland.! The! cantons! of! Argovia,! Zug,! Glarus,! and! Schaffhausen,! which! are! part! of! other! NUTS! II! regions! have! certainly! a! stronger! functional! relationship! to! Zürich! than! to! the! centers! of! their! own! region.! In! comparison! the! Région! lémanique! appears! very! large,! including! important! rural! areas! of! the! alpine! region.! Given! the! differential! treatment! of! Zürich! and! the! Région! lémanique! a! comparison! of! these! two! areas! is! seriously!flawed.! In!sum,!MS!and!BE!regions!are!very!well!suited!for!the!analysis!of!spatial!economic!phenomena,! while!the!institutional!subdivisions!and!the!NUTS!II!regions!must!be!used!cautiously.!A!problem! for! historical! analysis! however! is! that! MS! and! BE! regions! were! created! only! in! 1982! and! historical!data!for!these!entities!does!not!exist.!Here,!I!propose!to!use!the!districts!as!a!basis!for! reconstructing!historical!MS!and!BE!regions.!I!call!the!resulting!subdivisions!MSR!regions!(MSR! =! Reconstructed! MS)! and! BER! regions! (BER! =! Reconstructed! “Bassins! d’emploi”).! Here! is! a! description!of!the!procedure,!how!the!MSR!were!constructed:! 1) I! constructed! a! data! set! for! all! Swiss! municipalities! with:! population! in! 2000! by! municipality! according! to! the! population! census! (BFS! 02);! district! to! which! a! municipality!belongs!(BFS!01);!MS!region!to!which!a!municipality!belongs!(BFS!01).! 2) I! calculated! the! percentage! of! each! district’s! population,! which! belongs! to! a! certain! MS! Region:! 123! out! of! 184! districts! have! 100%! of! their! population! in! only! one! MS! region;! 20! districts! have! between! 90%! and! 100%! of! their! population! in! one! MS! region;! 30! districts! have! between! 60%! and! 90%! in! one! MS! region;! and! only! 11! districts!have!less!than!60%!of!their!population!in!one!MS!region.! 3) I! assigned! districts! to! the! MS! region! to! which! the! largest! percentage! of! their! population!belongs.!!

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4) Some!MS!regions!could!not!be!reconstructed.!This!was!the!case!if!the!population!of! two! MS! regions! was! contained! in! one! single! district.! In! such! cases! I! merged! the! corresponding!MS!regions!into!one!MSR!region.!This!happened!for!8!regions.!! 5) Additionally,!I!decided!to!merge!Baselstadt!and!Unteres!Baselbiet.!Two!reasons!lead! to!this!decision.!First!Baselstadt!much!smaller!than!all!other!MS!regions,!in!particular! it!is!not!comparable!to!the!MS!regions!of!the!other!large!cities,!Zürich,!Genève,!Bern! that! include! a! larger! part! of! their! cities! hinterland.! Second,! commuting! was! very! important!between!these!two!regions!already!in!1910.!By!merging!the!two!regions,!I! circumvent!the!problem!of!lacking!data!on!commuting!before!1910.! Points! 4)! and! 5)! imply! that! the! resulting! territorial! subdivision! counts! only! 97! MSR! regions! instead!of!106.!For!conversion!tables!from!districts!to!MSR!and!BER!regions!refer!to!tables!2!and! 3.! Map! 5! illustrates! these! aggregations! graphically.! Table! 1! shows! that! MSR! regions! are! much! more!comparable!than!districts!and!cantons.!The!distribution!of!area!size!is!even!better!than!for! the! original! MS! regions.! This! is! essentially! so! because! I! have! merged! Baselstadt! and! Unteres! Baselbiet.!! To! what! extent! can! an! MSR! region! be! interpreted! as! the! pendant! of! the! corresponding! MS! region?!In!order!to!have!a!measure!of!how!much!these!MSR!regions!correspond!to!the!official!MS! regions,!one!can!calculate!the!percentage!of!population!of!the!original!MS!region!that!is!included! in!the!MSR!(INCL),!and!the!percentage!of!the!population!of!the!MSR!that!does!not!belong!to!the! corresponding!MS!region!(EXCESS).!With!these!two!elements!one!can!construct!a!resemblance! indicator!varying!from!0!to!100:! ! RESEMBLANCE!=!INCL!*!(1!–!EXCESS)! ! Map! 6! and! Figure! 1! illustrate! the! distribution! of! this! resemblance! indicator! for! the! 97! MSR! regions.!In!general,!MSR!and!MS!regions!seem!to!be!alike.!27!MSR!regions!coincide!exactly!with! the!corresponding!MS!regions.!82!MSR!regions!have!a!resemblance!indicator!of!80!or!more.!The! remaining! 15! MSR! regions! should! be! used! only! cautiously! as! substitutes! for! the! MS! regions.! Table! 4! reports! INCL,! EXCESS,! and! RESEMBLANCE! for! the! 16! BER! regions.! All! BER! regions! correspond!almost!perfectly!to!the!corresponding!BE!regions.! We!have!now!established!a!multiGlevel!regionalization!that!starts!from!the!districts!to!construct! comparable! regions! of! local! labor! markets! (n! =! 97)! and! regional! labor! markets! (n! =! 16).! The! NUTSII! regions! (n! =! 7)! can! be! used! as! a! third! regionalization! level.! However,! the! highlighted! problems!with!the!NUTS!II!regions!suggest!that!these!should!be!used!with!caution.!


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Regional'population' The!first!census!of!the!entire!Swiss!population!was!carried!out!at!the!beginning!of!the!Helvetic! Republic!in!1798.!But!after!the!end!of!the!Helvetic!Republic!in!1802!political!and!administrative! power!shifted!again!towards!the!cantonal!level!so!that!the!next!nationGwide!census!was!carried! out! only! in! 1850! after! the! formation! of! the! modern! Federal! state.! Thereafter,! censuses! were! carried!out!at!the!beginning!of!every!decade.!Exceptionally,!the!census!of!1890!was!anticipated! to! 1888! and! during! World! War! II,! the! census! was! carried! out! only! in! 1941.! The! data! of! the! Helvetic! census! has! been! published! for! the! district! level! by! Schluchter! (Schluchter! 1988).! And! the! Federal! statistical! office! provides! population! figures! from! 1850! to! 2000! by! municipality! according!to!their!territory!in!2000!(BFS!02).!! From!this!data!it!is!straightforward!to!reconstruct!districts!and!then!MSR!and!BER!regions.!For! the! period! 1850! to! 2000! one! can! even! reconstruct! MS! and! BE! regions! directly! from! the! municipalities.!

Regional'employment' Data! on! regional! employment! is! available! from! three! sources:! the! population! census! (Eidgenössische!Volkszählung),!the!industrial!census!(Eidgenössische!Betriebszählung),!and!the! factory! census! (Eidgenössische! Fabrikenzählung).! Table! 5! summarizes! the! characteristics! of! these! statistics.! Theoretically,! the! bestGsuited! statistic! to! study! regional! economic! growth! and! estimate! regional! GDP! is! the! industrial! census,! because! it! provides! exhaustive! employment! figures!and!counts!people!at!their!workplace!(“domestic”!concept)!as!opposed!to!their!residency.! However,! the! problem! with! the! industrial! census! is! that! it! provides! districtGlevel! data! only! for! 1905!and!after!1985.!The!factory!census!was!carried!out!much!more!regularly,!but!by!focusing! only!on!workers!that!are!subject!to!the!factory!law!it!excludes!a!large!part!of!the!economy!and!it! does! not! provide! any! districtGlevel! data,! either.! The! population! census! on! the! other! hand! provides! geographically! detailed! data! roughly! every! 10! years.! Population! census! data! is! also! more! complete! in! the! sense! that! it! counts! all! types! of! workers! and! industries.! My! regional! employment!data!set!is!therefore!mainly!constructed!from!the!population!census!(BFS!03,!BFS! 04).!But!other!data!sources!are!used!as!a!complement!where!necessary.! A!few!problems!must!be!noted!concerning!the!population!census.!First,!industrial!classifications! have! always! changed! from! one! census! to! the! other! and! no! harmonized! data! set! is! available.! Second,! it! counts! people! at! their! place! of! residency! instead! of! the! workplace.! Only! after! 1970,! employment!data!is!also!available!for!workplace.!Third,!it!excludes!international!inGcommuters,! which!makeGup!a!significant!part!of!the!work!force!in!certain!regions,!and!seasonal!workers,!who! were! essential! for! sectors! that! are! subject! to! strong! seasonality,! such! as! construction,!

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agriculture,!and!tourism.!Fourth,!in!certain!sectors!there!has!been!significant!underreporting!of! employment,! typically! female! labor! in! the! agricultural! sector.! Fifth,! the! industrial! classification! of! the! district! data! is! very! limited! between! 1930! and! 1960.! Sixth,! for! people! with! multiple! occupations,! the! population! census! only! takes! account! of! the! principal! employment! (the! occupation!that!generates!the!highest!income)!and!no!distinction!was!made!between!partGtime! and!fullGtime!work.!

Harmonization)of)industrial)classifications) Industrial!classifications!have!always!changed!from!one!census!to!the!other.!In!order!to!follow! industries!over!a!long!time!and!to!analyze!the!evolution!of!value!added!by!industry,!the!different! censuses! had! to! be! harmonized.! Some! publications! provided! harmonized! data! sets! for! two! or! three!periods!but!only!for!the!national!level!and!usually!only!for!larger!industry!aggregates.!The! Federal! statistical! office! made! a! harmonized! districtGlevel! dataset! for! the! period! 1970G2000! available!to!me!(BFS!04).!! After!1900!all!census!publications!provide!a!detailed!conversion!table!between!the!last!and!the! actual!census’s!classifications.!For!the!censuses!1860!to!1900,!no!conversion!tables!exist!but!the! published!harmonized!data!sets!and!their!accompanying!footnotes!allow!for!the!construction!of! conversion! tables.! Until! 1941! the! general! trend! is! towards! more! detailed! classifications! (299! industries!in!1941).!Thereafter,!classifications!are!considerably!simplified!(90!industries!for!the! harmonized! data! set! for! 1970G2000).! A! harmonization! for! the! whole! period! 1860G2000! is! not! possible! because! the! classifications! before! 1888! are! too! limited.! Two! classifications! had! to! be! constructed:!one!for!the!period!1860G1888!and!one!for!the!period!1888G2000.! My! classification! for! 1860G1888,! HI_19! (see! table! 6),! is! a! forward! harmonization,! i.e.! I! reconstructed!the!1860!classification!for!the!following!years.!Given!the!limited!detail!published! before!1888!it!was!not!possible!to!harmonize!backwards!from!1888.!For!more!details!see!tables! 11!to!14!in!the!appendix.! The! classification! 1888G2000,! HI_54! (see! table! 7)! is,! with! a! few! exceptions,! a! backward! and! forward! reconstruction! of! the! 1960! classification.! The! choice! of! an! intermediate! year! between! 1888! and! 2000! was! practical.! On! the! one! hand,! the! 1888! classification! cannot! account! for! the! industrial! development! of! the! 20th! century.! On! the! other! hand,! the! attempt! to! reconstruct! the! 1970G2000!classification!backward!to!1888!would!be!condemned!to!fail,!because!of!conceptual! differences!and!lacking!clarity!as!to!how!the!censuses!from!1970!to!2000!themselves!have!been! harmonized.!For!more!details!see!tables!15!to!23!in!the!appendix.!

Accounting)for)commuters)and)seasonal)workers) The! population! census! counts! people! at! their! municipality! of! residency.! For! the! analysis! of! economic!growth!and!the!estimation!of!regional!GDP!it!would!be!better!to!count!people!at!their!


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working! place! (“domestic”! concept).! For! certain! urban! or! industrial! districts! this! changes! the! size!of!the!labor!force!by!more!than!25%!already!in!1910,!while!employment!in!nearby!districts! drops!by!more!than!30%.!! Analogously,! residents! of! Switzerland! who! work! abroad! (international! outGcommuters)! should! not!be!counted,!while!residents!of!neighboring!countries!working!in!Switzerland!(international! inGcommuters)!should!be!considered.!At!the!national!level,!the!difference!between!international! inGcommuters!and!outGcommuters!has!only!a!small!impact.!Although!Switzerland!counts,!even!in! absolute! terms,! the! largest! number! of! international! inGcommuters! in! Europe:! already! in! 1975! more! than! 104’000! people! were! crossing! the! border! daily! to! work! in! Switzerland,! that! is! 60%! more!than!in!West!Germany,!5!times!more!than!in!France,!and!12!times!more!than!in!Belgium! and!corresponds!to!roughly!3.5%!of!the!Swiss!labor!force!(Ricq!1981,!p.!66G67).!At!the!regional! level,!however,!commuter!flows!can!make!an!enormous!difference:!according!to!my!data!for!the! year!2000!in!the!city!of!Basel,!1!worker!out!of!5!is!an!international!commuter,!and!in!the!district! of! Mendrisio! the! ratio! is! 1! out! of! 2.! This! is! not! a! recent! phenomenon.! Already! in! 1960! many! districts!attracted!more!than!10%!of!their!labor!force!from!abroad;!and!in!1930,!one!out!of!14! workers!in!Mendrisio!was!a!foreign!commuter.! Seasonal! workers! are! also! absent! from! the! population! census,! because! most! of! them! were! usually! absent! in! December! when! the! census! was! carried! out.! In! certain! industries,! such! as! construction! and! tourism,! where! seasonal! working! permits! were! widely! used,! and! in! regions! specialized! in! such! industries! statistics! change! considerably! whether! or! not! seasonal! workers! are! included.! In! the! construction! industry! in! 1970,! 1! out! of! 3! workers! was! a! soGcalled! “guestworker”.!In!the!tourism!industry!it!was!1!out!of!6!workers.! Commuting$residents$of$Switzerland$ Employment!data!by!workplace!is!available!only!from!1970!on!(BFS!04).!But!data!on!commuting! flows! of! residents! of! Switzerland! has! been! published! in! all! population! censuses! from! 1910! to! 1960!except!for!1920!(BFS!07).!The!reported!statistics!are!the!number!of!workers!who!reside!in! an!other!municipality!than!that!of!their!workplace!(inGcommuters)!and!the!number!of!residents! working! in! an! other! municipality! than! that! of! their! residency! (outGcommuters).! The! difference! between!inG!and!outGcommuters!is!the!net!number!of!inGcommuters.!The!statistic!is!also!built!on! the! municipality! level,! when! reported! for! districts,! cantons,! or! the! national! level.! This! implies! that!we!do!not!know!the!gross!number!of!outG!and!inGcommuters!of!a!district!or!canton.!Only!the! net!number!of!inGcommuters!can!be!calculated.!In!1910,!1950,!and!1960,!the!data!is!reported!for! the!districtGlevel!or!lower.!In!1930!and!1941!commuters!were!only!published!by!canton.! This! data! can! be! used! to! transform! the! employment! data! of! the! 1910! to! 1960! censuses! from! “residential! count”! to! the! “workplace! count”.! In! 1910,! 1950,! and! 1960! one! can! simply! add! the! net!number!of!inGcommuters!to!the!total!number!of!employed!residents!of!each!district!in!order!

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to!calculate!total!employment!by!workplace.!For!1920!to!1941,!the!districtGlevel!commuter!flows! must! be! extrapolated.! We! also! lack! districtGlevel! information! about! the! commuter! flows! by! industry.!Hence,!the!industrial!structure!of!commuters!must!be!modeled.! I! started! by! modeling! the! industrial! structure! of! districtGlevel! commuter! flows! in! 1910,! 1950,! and! 1960.! The! main! working! assumption! is! that! inGcommuters! have! the! same! industrial! structure! as! resident! workers.! Hence! modeling! inGcommuters! is! straightforward.! I! simply! impose! the! industrial! structure! of! a! region! to! its! inGcommuters.! Modelling! outGcommuters’! industrial!structure!is!more!complicated,!because!the!job!market!of!other!regions!defines!their! industrial! structure.! In! fact,! the! same! persons! (with! the! exception! of! residents! of! Switzerland! who! work! abroad)! are! counted! once! as! inGcommuters! and! once! as! outGcommuters.! Hence,! we! need! to! match! the! modeled! inGcommuter! population! with! the! outGcommuter! population.! In! order! to! do! that! an! assumption! must! be! made! about! the! spatial! structure! of! commuting.! I! suppose!that!commuters!travel!the!shortest!possible!distance.!Hence,!I!match!inGcommuters!first! with! outGcommuters! of! their! own! district,! then! with! outGcommuters! of! other! districts! of! their! MSR!region,!then!with!outGcommuters!of!their!BER!region,!and!finally!with!outGcommuters!of!the! rest!of!Switzerland.!The!remaining!outGcommuters!are!those!who!work!outside!of!Switzerland,! to! whom! I! apply! the! industrial! structure! of! their! district! of! residency.! For! 1910,! I! applied! this! model! to! HI_54! industries.! For! 1950! and! 1960,! I! do! not! dispose! of! detailed! industry! classifications!for!the!districts.!I!applied!the!model!to!the!published!4Gsector!classification.! In!a!next!step,!I!extrapolated!commuter!flows!for!1920,!1930,!and!1941.!First,!I!extrapolated!a! stable! geometric! growth! rate! connecting! each! district’s! number! of! outGcommuters! and! inG commuters! of! each! one! of! the! 4! sectors.! Then! I! adjusted! the! estimated! district! inG! and! outG! commuters!in!order!to!sum!up!to!the!published!cantonal!commuter!totals.!The!resulting!1920!inG! and! outGcommuter! totals! were! then! used! to! model! the! HI_54! industrial! structure! in! the! same! way!as!for!1910.! International$inCcommuters$ Several! data! sources! on! international! inGcommuters! are! available.! For! 2000,! the! Federal! statistical! office! has! published! total! international! inGcommuters! present! in! each! municipality! (BFS! 08).! From! 1980! to! 2004,! the! Bundesamt! für! Ausländerfragen! has! published! a! detailed! statistic!on!the!number!of!commuters!per!industry!and!canton!in!February!and!August!of!each! year!(BFM!02).!Earlier!the!Bundesamt!für!Industrie,!Gewerbe!und!Arbeit!has!published!a!similar! statistic! (BIGA! 01)! for! February! (since! 1949)! and! August! (since! 1955)16.! And! for! the! period! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 16!In!August,!the!Swiss!economy!is!generally!closest!to!full!capacity.!During!the!winter!months!economic!

activity!is!at!its!lowest!level.!This!is!why!the!industrial!census!is!generally!carried!out!in!August.!In!order! to!capture!the!entire!commuter!population,!I!used!the!August!statistics.!!


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1928G1960! the! official! publication! of! the! Departement! für! Wirtschaft,! “Die! Volkswirtschaft”,! published! the! number! of! commuter! permits! delivered! to! foreigners! by! industry 17.! Several! regional! studies! contain! statistics! or! approximate! indications! for! the! cantons! of! BaselGCity,! St.! Gallen,! Schaffhausen,! Thurgau,! Genève,! Neuchâtel,! and! Jura! (Banz! 1964;! Meusburger! 1969;! Krucker! 1926;! Neury! 2004;! Guichonnet! 2010;! Guichonnet! 2001;! Favre! 2010;! Belot! &! Hauser! 2006).!The!“Compte!d’Etat!de!la!République!et!du!Canton!de!Genève!1930”!reports!the!number! of!permits!delivered!during!that!year.!! Different!elements!need!to!be!extrapolated!in!order!to!integrate!this!data!into!my!employment! database.! For! the! year! 2000! I! have! district! totals! and! cantonal! data! by! industry;! hence! the! districtGindustry! matrix! must! be! estimated.! I! have! done! this! using! the! iterative! proportional! fitting!method!or!RASGalgorithm!(Deming!&!Stephan!1940;!Bacharach!1965).!This!method!uses! the!observed!margins!of!a!contingency!table!to!estimate!its!unknown!interior!cells.!Practically,!a! related! contingency! table! (e.g.! the! same! statistic! observed! at! an! other! moment! in! time! or! a! sample! statistic)! is! adjusted! to! the! observed! margin! values! by! adjusting! it! alternately! to! fit! column! or! line! totals.! The! totals! of! the! matrix! that! is! to! be! fitted! converge! asymptotically! throughout! the! iteration! process.! The! iteration! is! stopped,! when! the! observed! totals! and! the! totals! of! the! fitted! table! have! converged! to! a! defined! maximal! error.! In! my! application! of! the! method,! each! canton! represents! a! contingency! table! where! totals! by! industry! and! totals! by! district!are!known,!while!the!interior!cells!are!unknown.!I!use!the!districtGindustry!matrix!of!my! employment! data! (workplace)! as! the! related! contingency! table.! This! translates! the! hypothesis! that! the! crossGborder! commuter! population! has! a! similar! industrial! structure! to! the! working! population!registered!by!the!population!census.! For! earlier! periods! the! district! totals! are! unknown! and! had! to! be! estimated! from! the! cantonal! totals.! From! historical! records! we! know! that! crossGborder! commuting! goes! back! to! the! end! of! the! 19th! century.! Since! then! the! phenomenon! has! been! constantly! increasing! except! from! two! interruptions! during! the! world! wars! and! a! strong! reduction! during! the! 1930s! crisis.! At! the! beginning! only! the! direct! border! regions! were! concerned,! whereas! by! the! year! 2000,! even! regions! that! are! farther! inside! the! country! have! started! to! attract! commuters! from! abroad.! However,! the! dominant! attraction! points! along! the! border! are! still! the! same! as! in! the! 19th! century.!For!the!estimation!of!the!district!totals!from!1950!to!1990,!I!assumed!that!in!1950!only! districts! that! were! within! 10! km! from! the! border! attracted! commuters18.! All! other! districts’! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 17!The!number!of!permits!delivered!in!a!year!is!always!higher!than!the!actual!population!of!crossGborder!

commuters!working!at!one!moment.! 18!Cantonal!administrations!attributed!commuter!permits!to!foreigners!living!within!10!km!from!the!Swiss!

border,!assuming!that!this!a!feasible!walking!or!biking!distance!for!a!commuter.!I!use!the!same!distance!to! determine!possible!commuting!destinations!within!Switzerland.!

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commuter!totals!were!set!to!zero!in!1950!and!extrapolated!with!a!linear!extrapolation!to!their! level! in! the! year! 2000.! For! the! districts! of! Appenzell! Ausser! Rhoden! and! St.! Gallen! I! used! the! 1950!data!from!Meusburger!and!constructed!a!linear!extrapolation!to!their!level!in!2000.!For!all! other!districts,!I!estimated!the!commuter!total!multiplying!the!cantonal!total!with!the!district’s! share! of! cantonal! inGcommuters! in! the! year! 2000.! For! 1950! the! cantonGindustry! matrix! is! unknown.! But! I! do! have! data! on! cantonal! totals! and! national! totals! by! industry19.! Using! these! margins! and! the! cantonGindustry! matrix! of! 1960,! I! estimated! the! 1950! cantonGindustry! matrix! through!iterative!proportional!fitting.!Finally,!I!applied!the!iterative!proportional!fitting!method! as!described!for!the!year!2000!to!estimate!the!districtGindustry!matrices!for!1950!to!199020.!! In! 1941,! crossGborder! commuting! was! negligible,! because! the! borders! were! almost! entirely! closed!(Belot!&!Hauser!2006).!For!1930,!only!the!number!of!permits!delivered!by!industry!has! been! published.! The! total! number! of! commuter! permits! delivered! is! 12’879.! Given! that! the! commuters!are!distributed!on!a!relatively!small!number!of!border!districts,!this!is!a!considerable! population!of!workers!that!cannot!just!be!omitted.!How!to!estimate!district!totals!and!industrial! structure! of! these! workers?! I! use! the! fact! that! the! occupational! structure! of! commuters! in! different!regions!varies!significantly,!e.g.!commuters!in!eastern!Switzerland!are!predominantly! textile! workers! or! in! Ticino! commuters! are! numerous! in! the! apparel! industry.! I! started! by! estimating!the!cantonGindustry!matrix!for!1930!in!four!steps:!First,!I!multiplied!each!cell!of!the! 1950! cantonGindustry! matrix! with! the! corresponding! ratio! of! 1930! employment! to! 1950! employment! of! my! employment! data! (this! transformation! accounts! for! differential! industry! growth! rates! in! different! cantons).! Second,! I! adjusted! the! resulting! matrix! to! the! level! of! the! 1930! statistic! of! commuter! permits.! Third,! I! adjusted! the! estimated! values! for! Baselstadt! and! Genève!to!fit!the!totals!reported!in!Banz!(Banz!1964)!and!in!the!“Compte!d’Etat!de!la!République! et! Canton! de! Genève”.! Fourth,! I! transformed! this! permit! statistic! into! a! commuter! population! statistic! using! the! industry! specific! ratio! of! commuter! population! to! commuter! permits! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 19!The!

cantonal! data! is! available! only! for! February.! I! multiplied! it! with! an! cantonGspecific! seasonality!

coefficient!that!I!calculated!for!1955G1960,!when!both!February!and!August!data!exist.!The!national!totals! by! industry! are! the! average! of! the! results! obtained! from! two! different! data! sets!:! First,! the! February! statistics! were! multiplied! with! an! industryGspecific! seasonality! coefficient! calculated! for! 1955G1960!;! Second,!the!number!of!delivered!permits!per!industry!was!multiplied!with!an!industryGspecific!commuter! populationGtoGpermit! ratio.! Theoretically,! the! sum! of! cantonal! totals! and! the! sum! of! national! industry! totals!should!yield!the!same!result.!As!a!matter!of!fact!they!differ!by!only!1.5%.!Since!the!industry!totals! have! been! obtained! from! two! different! data! sources,! I! assume! they! are! closer! to! reality! and! decided! to! adjust!the!cantonal!total!to!the!same!level.! 20!Note!that!for!1950!and!1960!I!estimated!only!the!district!matrix!only!for!the!4Gsector!classification!for!

which!districtGlevel!employment!data!has!been!published.!!


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calculated!for!1955G1960.!Then!I!estimated!the!district!totals!by!reproducing!the!1950!district! shares! within! 1930! cantonal! totals.! Finally,! I! estimated! the! districtGindustry! matrix! through! iterative!proportional!fitting!method!as!described!for!the!year!2000.!Note!that!this!estimation!is! limited!to!the!4Gsector!classification!for!which!districtGlevel!data!was!published!in!1930.! For!1920!and!1910!there!are!no!precise!statistics!on!crossGborder!commuting.!My!estimations! are! therefore! not! much! more! than! best! guesses.! The! estimation! of! district! totals! builds! on! the! hypothesis! that! the! number! of! international! inGcommuters! has! evolved! in! a! similar! way! as! the! number!of!inGcommuters!from!other!Swiss!municipalities!between!1910!and!1930.!However,!in! 1920,!during!the!post!WWI!crisis,!crossGborder!commuting!was!certainly!rather!limited,!because! in! Switzerland! foreigner! workers! were! generally! used! to! absorb! negative! shocks! on! the! labor! market.!Hence,!I!adjusted!the!1920!district!totals!to!fit!the!1937!national!level!(another!year!of! crisis).! The! estimation! of! the! cantonGindustry! matrix! was! obtained! by! fitting! the! 1930! cantonG industry!matrix!to!the!cantonal!total!of!the!estimated!district!totals!for!1910!and!1920.!Finally,! the!districtGindustry!matrix!was!again!estimated!by!iterative!proportional!fitting!of!the!districtG industry!employment!data.! Seasonal$workers$ Several! data! sources! inform! about! the! number! of! seasonal! workers.! From! 1990! to! 2004,! the! Bundesamt! für! Ausländerfragen! has! published! a! detailed! statistic! on! the! number! of! seasonal! workers! per! industry! and! canton! in! February! and! August! of! each! year! (BFM! 02).! Earlier! the! Bundesamt! für! Industrie,! Gewerbe! und! Arbeit! has! published! a! similar! statistic! (BIGA! 01)! for! February! (since! 1949)! and! August! (since! 1955)21.! And! for! the! period! 1928G1960! the! official! publication! of! the! Departement! für! Wirtschaft,! “Die! Volkswirtschaft”,! published! the! number! of! season!worker!permits!delivered!to!foreigners!by!industry!(La!vie!économique).!! The!modeling!of!the!seasonal!workers’!industrial!structure!was!made!in!two!steps.!In!a!first!step,! I! estimated! the! cantonGindustry! matrix! and! in! a! second! step! I! modeled! the! districtGindustry! matrix.!For!the!period!1960!to!2000,!the!canton!industry!matrix!was!available!directly!from!the! published!data!sources.!For!the!period!1930!to!1950,!I!first!transformed!the!published!number! of! delivered! permits! to! the! actual! number! workers! using! the! industryGspecific! permitsGtoG workerGpopulation!ratio!calculated!for!1956G1960.!Then!I!estimated!the!cantonGindustry!matrix! by!multiplying!the!national!industry!totals!with!each!canton’s!share!of!national!employment!in! each! industry.! This! translates! the! hypothesis! that! season! worker! permits! were! attributed! according! to! regional! industry! size,! meaning! that! e.g.! the! largest! tourism! regions! received! the! largest! number! of! season! worker! permits! attributed! to! that! sector.! Before! 1930,! I! assume! the! number!of!seasonal!workers!to!have!been!negligible.!For!the!estimation!of!the!districtGindustry! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 21!I!used!again!the!August!statistics.!!


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matrix! I! built! again! on! the! hypothesis! that! regions! received! the! number! of! season! worker! permits!that!corresponds!to!their!employment!share!in!the!concerned!industry.! Once!the!number!of!seasonal!workers!was!estimated,!I!multiplied!the!whole!matrix!by!0.75.!This! translates!that!fact!that!seasonal!worker!permits!were!valid!for!a!maximal!duration!of!9!months.!

Underreporting)of)female)labor)in)agriculture) The! population! census! can! be! subject! to! underreporting,! since! information! was! collected! via! questionnaires!filled!out!by!the!households.!Typically,!female!labor!tended!to!be!less!valued!and! underreported.!Comparing!the!employment!statistics!of!the!agricultural!census!with!those!of!the! population!census,!Fritzsche!et!al!have!shown!that!female!labor!was!significantly!underreported! in! agriculture! (Fritzsche! et! al.! 2001).! I! followed! Ritzmann! and! assumed! that! farmer! wives! devoted! half! of! their! time! to! domestic! chores! and! half! to! agricultural! work! (RitzmannG Blickenstorfer!&!David!2012;!RitzmannGBlickenstorfer!1998).!Hence,!I!counted!half!of!the!farmer! wives!of!each!district!to!agricultural!employees.!After!1910!peasant!wives!were!not!reported!for! the! district! level! any! more.! For! the! censuses! 1920! to! 1960! I! fitted! the! reported! agricultural! employment! to! the! national! level! proposed! by! Ritzmann,! assuming! that! a! district’s! share! of! agricultural! wives! was! equal! to! its! share! of! reported! agricultural! employment.! For! the! period! 1970!to!2000,!I!fitted!the!reported!agricultural!employment!to!the!national!level!as!reported!in! the!agricultural!census!(HSSO!Q.02).!!

Reconstruction)of)detailed)district)data)for)1930)and)1941) The! 1930! to! 1960! censuses! provide! detailed! industry! data! only! for! the! cantonal! level,! while! district!data!only!distinguishes!four!large!sectors:!! •

S1:! agriculture.! This! sector! corresponds! exactly! to! A! 01! and! can! be! counted! entirely! to! RD!01.!

•

S2:!manufacturing.!

•

S3:!commerce,!finance,!and!tourism.!

•

S4:!public!administration,!law,!health!and!other!services.!In!1930!domestic!workers!were! also!reported!separately.!

In!order!to!be!able!to!analyze!the!growth!period!of!the!1920s,!the!1930s!crisis,!and!the!postGwar! Golden! Age! separately,! I! decided! to! attempt! a! reconstruction! of! the! HI_54! and! RD_41! classifications!for!1930!and!1941.!Eight!out!of!the!184!districts!and!9!out!of!the!97!MSR!regions! correspond!to!cantons!so!that!the!cantonal!data!can!be!used!directly.!For!the!remaining!districts,! the!cantonGindustry!totals!had!to!be!reGdistributed!on!the!different!districts!in!such!a!way!that! the!resulting!district!total!fitted!the!reported!employment!of!the!4!sectors.!Practically,!for!each! canton!sector,!a!districtGindustry!crosstab!had!to!be!estimated,!where!only!the!margins!(districtG sector!totals!and!cantonGindustry!totals)!were!known.!This!problem!can!be!solved!by!means!of!


133!

the!iterative!proportional!fitting!method.!In!the!following!subsections!I!provide!some!details!on! what! data! I! have! used! in! this! procedure.! The! description! is! formulated! for! the! 1930! reconstruction.!The!procedure!for!1941!was!the!same.! Reconstruction$of$the$district$industry$matrix$of$S3$ The!data!used!as!margins!for!the!iterative!proportional!fitting!are!the!following:! •

District!totals:!District!data!for!total!S3!transformed!to!workplace!count!and!augmented! by!international!inGcommuters!(see!above).!Note!that!the!estimation!of!seasonal!workers! was!made!only!after!the!reconstruction!of!the!1930!districtGindustry!matrix.!S3!contains! industries! with! few! seasonal! workers! (e.g.! banking)! and! industries! with! enormous! numbers!of!seasonal!workers!(e.g.!tourism).!Estimating!the!number!of!seasonal!workers! from!the!S3!employment!shares!would!lead!to!a!serious!upward!bias!of!seasonal!workers! in! regions! with! a! large! banking! industry! and! a! downward! bias! of! seasonal! workers! in! regions!with!a!large!tourism!industry.!

•

CantonGindustry!totals:!Detailed!industry!data!for!cantons!converted!to!workplace!count! and! augmented! with! international! inGcommuters,! assuming! that! commuters! were! distributed!according!to!the!relative!industry!size!of!each!canton.!

Data!on!the!districtGindustry!matrix:! •

The!industrial!censuses!of!1929!and!1939!provide!data!on!employment!in!industries!for! 30!cities!(BFS!06).!These!30!cities!provide!information!on!24!districts!(21!MSR!regions).! In! most! cases! these! cities! do! not! correspond! to! the! entire! district,! so! that! the! data! on! cities!can!only!serve!as!a!minimal!employment!level.!For!example!the!city!of!Zurich!has! 7000! persons! employed! in! the! banking! and! insurance! sector.! Therefore,! the! district! of! Zurich,!which!is!larger!than!the!city,!must!count!at!least!7000!persons!in!that!sector.!The! industrial!census!provides!also!detailed!cantonal!data.!Using!the!ratio!between!cantonG industry!employment!of!the!1930!population!census!and!the!1929!industrial!census,!the! data!for!the!30!cities!can!be!adjusted!to!the!level!of!the!1930!population!census.!

•

The! 1920! population! census! provides! detailed! information! on! districts! and! industries! (BFS! 03).! I! assume! that! there! was! relative! stability! in! intraGcantonal! specialization! patterns.! Using! the! ratio! between! cantonGindustry! employment! in! 1930! and! 1920! this! data!can!be!adjusted!to!the!1930!level!for!each!canton.!

•

Construction! of! the! 1930! districtGindustry! seed:! the! 1920! districtGindustry! data! was! adjusted! to! the! 1930! level! and! compared! to! the! adjusted! city! data.! For! each! districtG industry!the!higher!of!both!employment!figures!was!used.!This!method!reconstructs!the! 1920! districtGindustry! distribution,! but! integrates! also! the! information! of! the! 1929! industrial!census!for!cities.!

134!


Reconstruction$of$the$district$industry$matrix$of$S2$ The! industries! of! this! aggregate! were! assigned! to! three! groups! according! to! the! availability! of! complementary! data! sources,! and! their! spatial! distribution.! I! will! call! those! groups! “Mapindustries”,!“NonGtradable!industries”,!and!“Localized!industries”.! For! the! Mapindustries! I! used! additional! data! from! the! industrial! censuses! of! 1929! and! 1939! (BFS!06).!These!censuses!have!published!maps!that!illustrate!employment!per!municipality!for! selected! industries.! Empty! dots! symbolize! 10G50! jobs.! Full! dots! symbolize! 51G109! jobs.! Municipalities!with!less!than!10!jobs!in!the!industry!are!not!illustrated.!I!counted!the!middle!of! range!number!of!jobs:!e.g.!30!jobs!for!one!empty!dot,!80!jobs!for!a!full!dot,!and!180!(=100+80)! for! two! full! dots.! The! industrial! census! also! provides! detailed! employment! statistics! for! the! cantons.!The!comparison!of!maps!and!cantonal!statistics!reveals!that!the!dots!do!not!always!sum! up! to! the! cantonal! totals:! dots! might! stand! for! higher! than! middle! of! range! numbers! or! there! might!be!one!or!several!municipalities!with!less!than!10!jobs.!In!order!to!match!the!map!count! with! the! cantonal! totals,! I! distributed! the! difference! according! to! the! 1920! spatial! distribution! (more! precisely:! my! 1920! data! converted! to! workplace! count! including! international! inG commuters).! If! the! dot! count! exceeded! the! cantonal! totals,! I! adjusted! the! value! of! the! dots! downwards.!Two!maps!concern!rather!dispersed!industries,!namely!Schreinerei!and!Sägereien.! Many! municipalities! have! a! small! number! of! jobs! in! this! sector.! Therefore! using! the! middle! of! range! employment! number! for! each! symbol! leads! to! important! overestimations! for! certain! districts! and! introduces! arbitrary! and! extreme! results.! Therefore,! I! assumed! always! lower! bound!of!range!numbers,!which!leads!to!the!fact!that!only!a!small!part!of!cantonal!employment!is! attributed!from!the!map.!Hence!the!map!does!not!provide!very!much!information,!so!that,!except! for! cases! with! exceptional! growth,! the! reconstruction! is! mainly! a! reproduction! of! spatial! patterns!of!1920.! The! Mapindustries! group! is! different! from! the! other! two! groups! of! industries,! because! the! underlying! data! is! based! on! workplace! count! including! international! commuters! and! seasonal! workers.!In!order!to!integrate!all!three!groups!into!a!single!iterative!proportional!fitting!process,! they! have! to! be! converted! to! the! same! definition.! The! transformation! of! the! districtGindustry! matrix! for! Mapindustries! to! residential! count! was! operated! in! the! following! order:! estimation! and!subtraction!of!seasonal!workers,!estimation!and!subtraction!of!international!inGcommuters,! transformation!from!workplace!count!to!residential!count.! The!NonGtradable!industries!are!rather!evenly!distributed!across!space.!For!these!industries,!in! 1920! the! share! of! cantonal! employment! of! most! districts! is! close! to! their! share! of! cantonal! population.!However,!the!large!cities!tend!to!have!much!higher!shares.!My!estimation!is!the!sum! of!two!components:!The!first!component!stems!from!the!detailed!industry!employment!figures! that! are! available! for! the! cities! of! Zurich,! Winterthur,! Bern,! St.! Gallen,! and! Lausanne! from! the!


135!

population! census.! The! second! component! distributes! the! remaining! cantonal! employment! on! the! basis! of! districts’! shares! of! cantonal! population! (excluding! the! population! of! the! aforementioned! cities).! As! a! test,! I! have! applied! the! same! procedure! to! the! 1920! census! (with! the! exception! that! data! for! the! city! of! Winterthur! is! not! available).! I! then! compared! my! estimation!to!the!published!district!data.!Table!24!reports!the!results!of!this!comparison.!For!all! industries,!the!estimation!method!captures!more!than!95%!of!the!variation!in!the!original!data.! The!estimation!for!1930!can!reasonably!be!assumed!to!be!even!more!accurate,!because!it!relies! on!precise!data!for!one!more!city.! The! estimation! of! localized! industries! mainly! relies! on! the! 1920! data.! Most! of! these! industries! are!strongly!localized!in!one,!two,!or!three!districts!per!canton.!It!is!reasonable!to!assume!that!in! these!cases!the!industry!location!remained!relatively!stable!between!1920!and!1930,!so!that!we! can!use!the!1920!data!(residential!count)!as!the!seed!for!the!subsequent!iterative!proportional! fitting! process.! The! industry! Fleischkonserven! can! serve! as! an! example.! In! 1930! this! industry! appears! only! in! seven! cantons,! of! which! only! Zurich! and! Argovia! have! more! than! 3! persons! employed.!In!1920,!a!few!more!cantons!had!positive!employment.!In!those!cantons!that!still!had! positive!employment!in!1930,!the!industry!declined!with!the!exception!of!Zurich.!In!this!canton! the!industry!is!mainly!located!in!Zurich!and!Bülach.!This!is!still!the!case!in!1970,!when!district! data!is!again!available.!Given!this!stability,!the!use!of!the!1920!data!as!a!seed!is!justified.! Of! course! many! industries! are! neither! as! strongly! localized! as! Fleischkonserven! nor! as! widely! dispersed!as!the!nonGtradable!industries!reported!in!table!24.!For!such!intermediate!industries!a! choice! had! to! be! made! between! the! method! based! on! the! 1920! data! and! the! one! based! on! population! shares.! I! assumed! that! industries,! where! the! population! share! method! yielded! RG squares!of!less!than!95%,!would!adjust!rather!slowly!to!population!growth!and!priviledged!the! assumption! that! industry! location! remained! relatively! stable! over! time.! Hence,! in! such! cases! I! used!the!1920!data!as!seed!for!the!iterative!proportional!fitting!method.!! After! the! construction! of! the! seed! for! all! three! groups! of! industries,! I! ran! the! iterative! proportional!fitting!process!in!order!to!reconcile!the!different!data!sources!with!the!published! 1930!matrix!margins.!Finally,!I!converted!the!S2!districtGindustry!matrix!from!residential!count! to!workplace!count!and!estimated!international!inGcommuters!and!seasonal!workers!according! to!the!methods!described!above.! Reconstruction$of$the$district$industry$matrix$of$S4$ Three!different!methods!were!applied!to!construct!the!seed!of!the!districtGindustry!matrix!of!S4.! First,! a! small! group! of! industries! were! again! estimated! from! population! shares! and! complemented! with! the! data! for! the! 5! largest! cities! (BFS! 03).! Table! 25! reports! the! corresponding! RGsquares! of! the! 1920! test! estimations.! Second,! KrankenG! HeilG! und! Pflegeanstalten,! private! Altersheime,! Zahnärztliche! und! zahntechnische! Ateliers,! privates!

136!


Bestattungswesen! were! estimated! with! a! similar! method! to! the! one! I! applied! to! the! S3! sector.! The!1929!and!1939!industrial!censuses!provide!the!number!of!workers!in!such!institutions!for! 30! cities! (BFS! 06).! From! this! source! I! calculated! the! cities’! share! of! cantonal! employment! and! applied! it! to! the! cantonal! employment! according! to! the! population! census.! The! rest! of! the! cantonal! employment! was! distributed! according! to! districts’! shares! of! cantonal! population.! A! third! method! was! applied! to! the! industry! P! 01! (electricity,! gas,! and! water).! Growth! of! this! infrastructure! sector! must! have! occurred! through! the! construction! of! new! facilities! and! expansion!of!existing!ones.!This!evolution!is!impossible!to!model!from!any!available!data!source.! I!decided!to!use!a!linear!extrapolation!between!each!district’s!1920!and!1970!employment.!Once! the!seed!was!established,!I!ran!the!iterative!proportional!fitting!process,!converted!the!matrix!to! workplace! count,! and! estimated! the! number! of! international! inGcommuters! and! seasonal! workers.! Relative$weight$of$the$different$methods$ As! appears! from! these! explanations,! part! of! the! information! in! the! estimated! 1930! districtG industry!matrix!is!based!on!1920!data.!Does!the!estimation!really!capture!the!changes!between! 1920!and!1930!or!is!it!merely!a!reconstruction!of!the!1920!spatial!patterns?!Table!26!addresses! this!question!by!reporting!the!share!of!national!employment,!that!the!industries!estimated!with! the!different!methods!account!for.!The!first!three!methods!rely!entirely!on!1930!and!1929!data.! The!method!reported!in!line!4!uses!1929!and!1920!data.!Only!the!last!method!relies!entirely!on! 1920! data.! Note! however! that! the! industrial! structure! of! the! sectoral! level! (S1! to! S5)! stems! directly! from! the! published! 1930! data.! Table! 26! therefore! refers! only! to! the! withinGsector! reconstruction.!Moreover,!the!different!methods!were!used!only!for!the!construction!of!the!seed! for!the!iterative!proportional!fitting!process.!Additional!1930!information!was!contained!in!the! matrix!margins!used!in!the!process.!Hence,!table!16!refers!only!to!a!fraction!of!the!withinGsector! component! of! the! estimated! district! industry! matrix.! The! extent! to! which! the! 1920! data! has! influenced!the!construction!of!the!entire!1930!districtGindustry!matrix!is!therefore!much!lower! than!the!reported!18%.!Hence,!the!reconstructed!districtGindustry!matrix!really!represents!the! spatial!industrial!structures!of!1930!and!not!those!of!1920.!

Regional'GDP'and'value'added'per'worker' This!section!discusses!how!my!regional!employment!data!can!be!combined!with!the!estimates!of! value!added!by!industry!from!Stohr!(2014)!in!order!to!estimate!regional!value!added!per!worker! and!GDP.!!


137!

Decomposition)of)regional)value)added)per)worker)and)GDP) Regional!aggregate!value!added!per!worker!is!defined!as!follows:! !!

!(1),!

!!

where!!! !stands!for!regional!GDP!of!region!r!and!!! !stands!for!the!corresponding!employment.! Since!!! !is! unknown,! regional! value! added! per! worker! cannot! be! calculated! directly.! Equation! (1)!can!be!decomposed!as!follows:! !! !!

=

! !! !! !!! ! ! !

+

! !! !!,! !!! ! !! !

−

!! !

+

! !!,! !!,! !!! ! !!,! !

−

!!

!(2),!

!!

where! the! index! I! refers! to! industries.! The! first! term! corresponds! to! national! value! added! per! worker.! The! two! following! terms! separate! the! difference! between! national! and! regional! value! added! per! worker! into! a! structural! component! and! a! productivity! component.! The! former! accounts! for! differences! in! value! added! per! worker! that! are! due! to! differences! in! industrial! structure,! while! the! latter! accounts! for! regional! productivity! differences! within! industries.! Analogously,!regional!GDP!can!be!formulated!as!follows:! !! = !!

! !! !! !!! ! ! !

+

! !! !!,! !!! ! !! !

−

!! !

+

! !!,! !!,! !!! ! !!,! !

−

!! !!

!(3).!

The! only! unknown! in! equations! (2)! and! (3)! is!!!,! .! All! other! variables! are! available! from! my! employment! data! and! from! the! different! production! accounts! mentioned! above.! Hence,! the! available!data!cannot!account!for!the!productivity!component.! A! possible! solution! to! this! problem! consists! of! estimating! the! productivity! effect! from! an! alternative! data! source.! Geary! and! Stark! and! a! series! of! following! studies! have! used! regional! wage!differentials!to!account!for!the!productivity!component!(Geary!&!Stark!2002;!Crafts!2005;! Schulze!2007;!Buyst!2009;!Enflo!et!al.!2010;!Felice!2010;!MartínezGGalarraga!et!al.!forthcoming).! All! of! these! studies! distinguish! only! broad! sectors! of! the! economy! lumping! all! manufacturing! industries!together!and!no!study!estimates!GDP!for!more!than!24!regions.!In!the!present!case,!I! estimate! GDP! and! value! added! per! worker! for! 97! regions,! and! I! use! much! more! detailed! industrial!classifications.!It!is!practically!impossible!to!find!such!detailed!wage!data,!especially!in! Switzerland,!where!wage!data!is!very!limited!anyway.! Ritzmann! and! David! (RitzmannGBlickenstorfer! &! David! 2012)! proposed! another! solution! to! account! for! the! productivity! component22.! They! assumed! that! this! component! depends! on! five! indicators:!population!density,!density!of!rail!and!road!tracks,!agricultural!productivity!(inferred! from!average!surface!of!agricultural!exploitations!and!average!number!of!cattle),!secondary,!and! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22!Ritzmann!calls!this!«!Standortfaktor!»!(location!factor).!I!do!not!use!this!term!because,!as!is!clear!from!

both!traditional!trade!theory!and!the!New!Economic!Geography!literature,!not!only!productivity!but!also! industrial!structure!depends!on!the!characteristics!and!relative!situation!of!a!location.!In!fact,!Ritzmann’s! Standortfaktor!corresponds!to!what!I!call!«!productivity!component!».!

138!


tertiary! employment! rate.! It! is! not! clear! how! these! indicators! have! been! transformed! into! productivity!differentials!and!how!much!weight!was!given!to!each!of!the!factors.!Ritzmann!just! points!out!that!he!attributed!the!same!weight!to!the!productivity!component!as!to!the!structural! component.!I!find!this!procedure!problematic!for!three!reasons:!First,!it!is!problematic!to!use!the! data! for! the! analysis! of! the! determinants! of! regional! inequality,! growth,! and! productivity! differentials.! Population! density,! firm! size,! and! market! access! through! transportation! are! typically! the! kind! of! explanatory! variables! one! would! like! to! use! in! such! an! analysis.! If! these! variables! are! already! used! to! construct! the! regional! GDP! and! productivity! estimates,! then! the! analysis! will! just! uncover! the! estimation! method! rather! then! provide! an! empirically! useful! result.!Second,!it!is!not!clear!that!the!structural!and!the!productivity!component!have!the!same! weight!in!determining!regional!GDP.!The!relative!weight!of!these!components!will!be!discussed! below.!Third,!secondary!and!tertiary!employment!rates!are!already!contained!in!the!structural! component!and!must!not!be!doubled!by!an!inclusion!into!the!productivity!component.! Practically,!in!the!absence!of!detailed!wage!data!on!regions!and!industries,!I!cannot!account!for! the! productivity! effect.! I! will! argue! that! the! productivity! component! can! be! neglected! if! a! sufficiently! detailed! industrial! classification! is! used! for! the! estimation! of! the! structural! component.! Hence! my! estimations! rely! on! the! following! approximations! of! regional! GDP! and! value!added!per!worker:! lim!→! !! !!

≈

! !!,! !!,! !!! ! !!,! !

! !! !! !!! ! !

!! ≈ !!

!

+

! !! !! !!! ! ! !

−

!! !!

=0

! !! !!,! !!! ! !! !

+

−

!hence! !!

=

!

! !! !!,! !!! ! !! !

−

!! !

! !! !!,! !!! ! ! ! !

=

!(2a).!

!

! !! !!,! !!! ! !

!(3a).!

How! important! is! the! productivity! component! compared! to! the! structural! component?! The! importance! of! the! two! components! is! highly! sensitive! to! the! underlying! classification.! Using! a! more!detailed!classification!further!reduces!the!importance!of!the!productivity!component.!For! example,! with! a! threeGsector! classification! a! structural! change! from! the! textile! to! the! chemical! industry! will! be! captured! by! the! productivity! component.! With! a! more! detailed! classification! that!distinguishes!these!two!industries,!the!same!shift!will!be!part!of!the!structural!component.! Hanna! (Hanna! 1951),! Kim! (Kim! 1998),! and! Martinez! et! al.! (MartínezGGalarraga! et! al.! forthcoming)! studied! regional! inequality! in! the! United! States! and! Spain,! two! countries! where! regional! inequality! was! relatively! important.! They! decompose! the! deviation! of! value! added! or! income! per! worker! from! the! national! level! for! every! region! into! an! industryGmix! effect! (structural! component)! and! a! wage! effect! (productivity! component).! Their! method! consists! of! constructing!hypothetical!regional!estimates!by!multiplying!regional!sectoral!employment!with! national!value!added!or!income!per!worker!for!each!sector.!The!percentage!difference!between! the! hypothetical! regional! estimate! and! national! GDP! per! worker! measures! the! industryGmix!


139!

effect.!The!percentage!difference!between!the!actual!regional!GDP!and!the!hypothetical!estimate! measures! the! wage! effect.! This! method! provides! decomposition! for! every! region! but! not! for! regional! inequality! in! general.! The! relative! weight! of! the! two! components! varies! significantly! between! regions.! If! we! want! to! have! a! general! idea! of! their! relative! importance! the! effects! at! work!in!different!regions!must!be!summarized!somehow.!Table!27!provides!summary!statistics! of! the! different! effects! measured! by! Martinez! et! al! for! 27! Spanish! regions! and! several! years! between!1860!and!2000.!Their!analysis!is!based!on!a!threeGsector!classification.!At!the!beginning! and! end! of! the! period,! the! wage! effect! is! clearly! dominant,! but! between! 1900! and! 1980! the! dominance!is!only!weak!and!in!some!years!the!industryGmix!effect!even!clearly!dominates.!! Another!method,!proposed!by!Akita!(Kataoka!&!Akita!2003;!Akita!2004;!Akita!et!al.!2011)!and! applied!by!MartinezGGalarraga!et!al.!consists!of!decomposing!a!TheilGindex!of!inequality!between! labor! productivity! in! regional! agriculture,! industry,! and! services! into! two! components:! within! sector!inequality!and!between!sector!inequality.!In!Spain!between!1860!and!2000,!the!betweenG sector! component! always! clearly! dominated! and! accounted! most! of! the! time! for! more! than! 80! percent! of! overall! inequality.! However,! since! 1990,! the! withinGsector! component! has! significantly!increased!reaching!40!percent!of!overall!inequality!in!2000.!In!Japan,!between!1955! and!2000,!the!picture!was!very!similar.!Until!1970!the!withinGsector!component!accounted!for! less! than! 20! percent! of! overall! inequality.! In! Indonesia! between! 1993! and! 1999,! the! between! sector!component!was!only!slightly!larger!than!the!withinGsector!component.! Caselli! and! Coleman! (Caselli! &! Coleman! 2001)! decompose! income! convergence! between! the! North! and! the! South! of! the! United! States! between! 1880! and! 1990.! They! account! for! three! components:! laborGreallocation! between! the! agricultural! and! the! nonGagricultural! sector! (structural! change),! convergence! of! productivity! levels! of! the! two! sectors! at! the! national! level! (betweenGsector! component),! and! convergence! of! Southern! to! Northern! productivity! in! each! sector! holding! the! national! productivity! levels! constant! (withinGsector! component).! Between! 1880! and! 1950! the! withinGindustry! component! accounts! for! only! 19.1! percent! of! total! convergence.! Between! 1940! and! 1990! this! component! becomes! more! important! but! remains! below!50!percent!(42.3!percent).!! In!sum,!these!studies!show!that!the!structural!component!often!accounts!for!the!bulk!of!regional! inequality!even!if!one!considers!only!very!broad!economic!sectors.!When!using!a!more!detailed! industrial! classification,! logically,! the! productivity! component! should! become! even! less! important! while! the! structural! component’s! weight! should! further! increase.! My! estimates! of! regional!value!added!are!based!on!much!more!detailed!industrial!classifications!(41!industries! between!1888!and!1941,!18!industries!between!1970!and!1991,!and!48!industries!after!1997).! In!order!to!evaluate!how!much!accuracy!is!gained!from!these!sector!subdivisions,!I!compute!the! HannaGKim!decomposition!and!the!Theil!index!proposed!by!Akita.!!

140!


Tables! 28! and! 29! summarize! the! HannaGKim! decomposition.! NUTS! II! regions! are! probably! the! most!comparable!to!the!Spanish!regions!of!MartinezGGalarraga!et!al.!(table!27).!I!provide!also!the! decomposition! for! BER!regions! because! they!are!more!comparable!among!each!other!than!the! NUTSII!regions.!The!sectorGmix!effect!can!be!directly!compared!to!that!of!MartinezGGalarraga!et! al.! The! industryGmix! effect! is! not! identical! to! the! wage! effect! of! table! 27.! It! captures! only! the! deviations! from! national! value! added! per! worker! that! are! due! to! withinGsector! industry! composition,!while!the!wage!effect!in!table!27!also!accounts!for!the!withinGindustry!productivity! effect! that! my! estimation! does! not! account! for.! However,! the! comparison! of! these! effects! can! reveal!if!my!estimation!passes!by!a!major!driver!of!regional!inequality!by!neglecting!the!withinG industry!productivity!effect.!As!expected,!regional!inequality!is!less!pronounced!in!Switzerland! than!in!Spain.!Both!effects!are!smaller.!For!the!sectorGmix!effect!this!is!a!fact,!for!the!industryG mix!effect!this!might!be!because!I!neglect!the!withinGindustry!productivity!effect.!However!the! fact! that! both! effects! are! smaller! seems! to! indicate! that! this! is! not! just! a! problem! of! measurement.!The!ratios!between! the!two!effects!do!not!clearly!indicate!that!my!industryGmix! effect! is! much! smaller! than! the! wageGeffect! of! table! 27:! the! average! of! column! 3! of! table! 27! is! 1.56,!while!the!average!of!column!3!of!table!28!is!1.34.!The!ratio!is!lower!in!table!28!than!in!table! 27! for! the! period! 1888! to! 1941,! but! it! is! higher! for! the! period! 1970! to! 1991.! The! fact! that! my! industryGmix!effect!is!higher!exactly!for!the!period!when!I!have!the!least!detailed!classification! (19!industries,!as!opposed!to!41!between!1888!and!1941!or!48!between!2001!and!2008)!seems! to! indicate! that! the! diverging! evolution! of! the! ratio! over! time! is! an! actual! Swiss! inequality! pattern!rather!than!a!measurement!problem.! Tables! 30! and! 31! provide! the! Akita! Inequality! decomposition.! Total! regional! inequality! can! be! measured! with! a! Theil! index! that! compares! regional! aggregate! value! added! per! worker! with! national!aggregate!value!added!per!worker:! !! =

! !!!

!" !! − !"(!)

!!

!!

!

(4).!

Analogously,!overall!regional!and!sectoral!inequality!is!measured!as!follows:! !! =

! !!!

! !!!

!" !!" − !"(!)

!!"

!(5),!

!

where!!!is!national!aggregate!value!added!per!worker,!!!" !is!value!added!per!worker!in!sector! i! and! region! r# ,! and!

!!" !

!is! the! share! of! region! r# ’s! sector! i! in! national! GDP.! Equation! (5)! can! be!

decomposed! into! two! components:! withinGsector! regional! inequality! and! betweenGsector! inequality:!! !! = !! + !!

,!!

where! and!

!! = !! =

! !! !!! !

! !!!

! !! !!! !

! !!!

!" !!" − !"(!! )

!" !! − !"(!)

!!" !!

=

! !!!

!!"

!(6),!

!!

!" !! − !"(!)

!! !

!(7).!


141!

The!Theil!index!of!equation!(5)!actually!measures!not!only!regional!inequality!but!regional!and! sectoral!inequality!at!the!same!time.!Equations!(6)!and!(7)!cannot!be!understood!as!components! of!(4).!The!three!withinGsector!components!of!equation!(6)!are!cumulative!only!as!components! of! overall! regional! and! sectoral! inequality! (equation! 5);! whereas,! they! can! have! counteracting! effects! on! total! regional! inequality! (equation! 4).! A! region! can! have! high! value! added! in! one! sector!and!low!value!added!in!another.!Hence!!! !can!be!bigger!than!!! .!Equation!(7)!measures! between!sector!inequality!in!general,!not!its!effect!on!regional!inequality.!In!a!situation!where!all! regions!have!the!same!sectoral!structure,!regional!inequality!(equation!4)!would!be!zero!even!if! there!was!significant!inequality!between!sectors!as!measured!in!equation!(7).!In!sum,!the!Akita! decomposition! does! not! exactly! address! the! question! how! much! information! on! regional! inequality! is! contained! in! the! withinGsector! component.! However,! it! can! be! useful! to! compute! withinGsector! regional! inequality! and! to! compare! it! to! betweenGsector! inequality! or! to! total! regional!inequality.! The!comparison!of!my!decomposition!results!with!those!of!MartinezGGalarraga!and!Akita!reveals! that! the! withinGsector! component’s! contribution! to! overall! inequality! among! NUTSII! regions’! sectors! is! about! 5! to! 10! percent! lower! in! my! decomposition.! In! particular! the! withinGsector! inequality! of! the! primary! sector! is! comparatively! low.! This! is! probably! a! shortcoming! of! my! estimation!method!stemming!from!the!fact!that!I!have!very!few!subdivisions!in!this!sector!(two! between!1888!and!1941!and!zero!thereafter).!On!the!other!hand,!the!lower!contribution!of!the! withinGsector! component! also! translates! the! fact! that! regional! inequality! was! actually! lower! in! Switzerland!than!in!Spain!and!Japan.!The!comparison!of!within!sector!regional!inequality!to!total! regional! inequality! actually! reveals! that! the! information! provided! by! the! withinGsector! subdivisions!is!substantial.! To!conclude,!my!estimation!method!neglects!withinGindustry!productivity!effects.!However,!I!use! much!more!detailed!industrial!classifications!than!other!estimations!of!regional!value!added!per! worker! and! GDP.! By! increasing! the! detail! on! industrial! structure,! I! reduce! the! productivity! component! of! regional! inequality.! Different! types! of! inequality! decompositions! show! that! the! component!that!I!neglect!does!not!account!for!a!major!part!of!regional!inequality.!Assuming!that! the! relative! weight! of! withinGsector! and! between! sector! inequality! in! Switzerland! is! similar! to! Spain!and!Japan,!for!which!similar!decompositions!have!been!made,!I!estimate!that!the!neglected! productivity!effect!would!change!overall!inequality!measures!by!about!5!to!10!percent.!From!the! studies! that! report! HannaGKim! decompositions! we! can! see! that! industryGmix! effects! and! wage! effects! are! strongly! positively! correlated,! i.e.! high! value! added! industries! are! situated! in! high! wage!regions.!The!correlation!coefficient!between!all!industryGmix!and!wage!effects!reported!by! MartinezGGalarraga! et! al.! is! 0.605! and! significant! at! the! 1%! level.! Hence! my! estimations! of! regional!inequality!can!be!interpreted!as!lower!bound!estimates.!


142!

Harmonization)of)industrial)classifications) In! order! to! combine! my! employment! data! with! the! different! series! of! national! value! added! by! sector,!the!corresponding!datasets!had!to!be!harmonized.!Four!different!datasets!on!value!added! by!industry!were!used!to!break!down!national!GDP!into!regional!aggregates:! •

The! national! research! project! “Geldmenge! und! Wirtschaftswachstum! in! der! Schweiz,! 1851G1913”!elaborated!Gross!value!added!by!industry!between!1851!and!1913.!The!data! is!available!in!several!tables!from!the!Swiss!historical!statistics!online!(HSSO!Q.01).!

•

Ritzmann! has! revisited! the! estimates! for! the! period! 1890! to! 1913! and! extended! the! series! until! 1960! (RitzmannGBlickenstorfer! &! David! 2012).! His! estimations! establish! Gross!value!added!for!46!industries.!These!estimates!were!integrated!in!the!GDP!series! recently! published! in! the! “Wirtschaftsgeschichte! der! Schweiz! im! 20.! Jahrhundert”! (Halbeisen!et!al.!2012;!Hiestand!et!al.!2012).!The!data!is!available!in!partially!aggregated! form! from! the! historical! statistics! of! Switzerland! online! (HSSO! Q.17).! Ritzmann! kindly! provided!me!with!more!detailed!data!containing!not!only!Gross!value!added!of!all!the!46! industries! but! also! the! corresponding! employment! statistics! that! he! elaborated! to! estimate!cantonal!GDP.!The!cantonal!GDP!estimates!are!available!in!per!capita!form!from! HSSO!Q.19.!However,!as!it!appears!from!Ritzmann’s!discussion!(RitzmannGBlickenstorfer! &!David!2012)!and!from!the!title!of!the!published!database!(HSSO!Q.19),!these!estimates! correspond! to! cantonal! revenue! or! Gross! national! product,! rather! than! cantonal! GDP,! because!they!do!not!account!for!commuting.!!

•

The! Sankt! Galler! Zentrum! für! Zukunftsforschung! has! elaborated! Gross! value! added! for! 23!industries!between!1960!and!1990!(HSSO!Q.02).!!

•

Since!1997!the!Federal!statistical!office!has!published!a!complete!production!account!for! 50! industries.! Gross! value! added,! employment,! and! productivity! are! available! from! the! website(BFS!10).!

The!first!three!series!of!value!added!by!industry!were!combined!with!my!estimates!of!regional! employment!by!industry!according!to!workplace!count!including!international!commuters!and! seasonal!workers.!The!last!series!was!combined!with!the!regional!data!of!the!industrial!census! provided!to!me!by!the!Federal!statistical!office.! For! the! period! after! 1997! the! harmonization! between! the! datasets! on! value! added! and! on! employment! was! straightforward! because! the! two! datasets! are! based! on! NOGA! classifications! that! are! directly! comparable.! For! the! period! 1888! to! 1970! I! adjusted! my! longitudinally! harmonized! employment! data! to! the! value! added! series! of! Ritzmann! and! of! the! Sankt! Galler! Zentrum! für! Zukunftsforschung.! In! both! cases! I! had! the! possibility! to! compare! the! resulting! national!employment!figures!by!industry!with!existing!data.!These!comparisons!are!the!object!of! the!next!two!subsections.!


143!

Harmonization$1888$to$1960$ Ritzmann! has! kindly! provided! me! with! the! national! employment! figures! by! industry! resulting! from! his! attempt! to! harmonize! the! two! datasets.! This! allows! for! a! comparison! of! my! harmonization! with! his23.! Ritzmann’s! employment! data! rely! mainly! on! the! population! census,! like! mine.! Therefore,! the! two! statistics! are! in! many! cases! perfectly! identical.! However,! for! the! years! 1930! and! 1940/41! there! are! important! differences! because! Ritzmann! relied! on! the! industrial! census,! while! my! national! totals! correspond! to! those! of! the! population! census.! Data! from! the! industrial! census! was! only! used! for! the! estimation! of! the! regional! distribution! of! employment.!In!other!cases!differences!between!Ritzmann’s!totals!and!mine!can!stem!from!the! fact!that!my!employment!statistics!were!first!longitudinally!harmonized!and!then!adjusted!to!the! value! added! series.! The! longitudinal! harmonization! made! it! necessary! to! separate! certain! activities! into! several! subGaggregates! that! were! then! counted! in! different! industries.! Ritzmann! and! I! may! have! operated! such! procedures! differently.! In! general,! my! harmonization! puts! probably!more!emphasis!on!longitudinal!comparability!and!it!relies!on!districtGlevel!information! that!was!not!considered!by!Ritzmann.!Hence,!it!should!be!more!homogenous.! Ritzmann’s! value! added! series! were! estimated! according! to! three! different! approaches:! the! output!approach,!the!income!approach,!and!rough!estimations.!The!output!approach!estimates! value! added! from! quantities,! prices! of! final! products! and! inputs.! For! these! sectors! I! estimated! regional! GDP! and! value! added! per! worker! by! dividing! national! value! added! directly! by! my! employment!statistics:!! !! !!

≈

! ! ! !! !!,! !!! !! !! ! !

,!

!! ≈

! ! ! !! !!,! !!! !! !

!!

(8),!

where!superscript!R!designates!Ritzmann’s!data!and!superscript!S!designates!mine.!This!method! was!applied!to!most!industries.! The! income! approach! estimates! value! added! as! the! sum! of! wagebills,! interests,! profits,! and! amortization.! Hence! employment! is! already! used! in! the! estimation! of! value! added.! It! would! therefore!be!incoherent!to!use!formula!to!devide!Ritzmann’s!value!added,!which!is!based!on!his! employment! statistic,! by! another! employment! statistic! in! order! to! estimate! value! added! per! worker.!Instead!of!equation!(8)!I!use!therefore!the!following!estimation!method:! !! !!

≈

! ! ! !! !!,! !!! !! !! ! !

,!

!! ≈

! ! ! !! !!,! !!! !! !

!!

(9).!

This!method!was!applied!to!two!industries:!Stickerei,!Graphisches!Gewerbe.!Value!added!of!the! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 23!The!comparisons!presented!here!are!those!of!Ritzmann’s!employment!data!with!my!employment!data!

according!to!residential!count!without!international!commuters!and!seasonal!workers,!because!Ritzmann! has!not!made!such!an!adjustment.!However,!for!the!actual!calculation!of!regional!GDP!and!value!added!per! worker! I! used! the! data! according! to! workplace! count! including! international! commuters! and! seasonal! workers,!which!correspond!to!the!domestic!concept!like!GDP.!

144!


Reinigungsgewerbe!was!estimated!using!wages!and!working!hours!of!female!textile!workers,!for! which!I!estimated!the!regional!statistics!using!equation!(9)!as!well.! For! sectors! where! the! data! allowed! for! the! implementation! of! neither! output! nor! income! approach,!Ritzmann!used!value!added!per!worker!of!a!comparable!industry!and!multiplied!it!by! total!employment!of!the!industry!for!which!no!other!estimation!method!could!be!implemented.! This! was! apparently! done! for! a! few! service! sectors:! for! Gesundheitswesen,! Körperpflege,! Unterricht,!Wissenschaft,!Kunst!und!Erholung!Ritzmann!partially!used!value!added!per!worker! of! the! sector! öffentliche! Verwaltung.! However,! Ritzmann’s! value! added! per! worker! does! not! exactly!correspond!to!that!of!öffentliche!Verwaltung.!Hence,!other!methods!must!have!been!used! as! well.! For! each! these! sectors! my! employment! statistics! diverge! clearly! from! Ritzmann’s,! but! there! is! relative! correspondence! of! the! sum! of! these! sectors.! Hence,! I! decided! to! lump! these! sectors! together! and! apply! equation! (9).! Ritzmann’s! treatment! of! the! sector! übrige! Dienstleistungen!is!unclear.!This!sector!contains!very!heterogeneous!activities,!such!as!domestic! services,! journeymen,! security! services,! and! intermediate! business! services! such! as! advertisement,!real!estate!services!and!the!like.!I!applied!Ritzmann’s!rough!estimation!method! and! applied! value! added! per! worker! of! the! Reinigungsgewerbe! to! journeymen! and! domestic! services,!while!value!added!of!the!öffentliche!Verwaltung!was!applied!to!business!services.!! Harmonization$1970C1990$ The! harmonization! of! my! employment! data! with! that! of! the! Sankt! Galler! Zentrum! was! straightforward!because!both!datasets!rely!on!the!ASWZ!classification!of!the!Federal!statistical! office.! However,! the! two! datasets! diverge! because! they! rely! on! two! different! sources,! mine! on! the!population!census!and!the!one!of!the!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!on!the!industrial!census.!A!way!to! compare!the!two!statistics!is!to!compute!national!value!added!from!both!sources!and!to!compare! the! two.! Figures! 2! to! 5! allow! for! such! a! comparison! for! the! years! 1970,! 1980,! and! 1990.! The! differences! are! most! notable! in! the! industries! NahrungsG! und! Genussmittel! and! Leder,! Kautschuk,!Kunststoff,!particularly!in!1970!and!1980.!In!1990!the!differences!are!less!important.! The!industrial!census!is!a!more!suitable!source!for!the!calculation!of!value!added!per!worker!or! productivity.! Hence,! instead! of! calculating! sectoral! value! added! per! worker! with! my! employment! data! as! in! equation! (8),! I! decided! to! use! directly! the! published! value! added! per! worker:!! !! !!

≈

! ! ! !! !!,! !!! !! !! ! !

,!

!! ≈ !

! ! ! !! !!,! !!! !! !

,!

where!

!!

!= ! !

! !! ! !!,! ! !!! !! !

!(10).!

Superscript!Z!refers!to!the!data!published!by!the!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!für!Zukunftsforschung.!!! is!a!scalar!that!assures!that!regional!GDPs!add!up!to!the!national!GDP.!


145!

Harmonization$1860C1890$ The! estimates! of! value! added! by! industry! for! the! period! 1860! to! 1890! stem! from! the! Nationalfondsprojekt! Geldmenge! und! Wirtschaftswachtum! in! der! Schweiz! 1851G1913! (HSSO! Q.01).!This!was!the!first!attempt!to!estimate!a!continuous!series!of!value!added!by!industry!for! the! period! before! WWI.! This! series! is! not! directly! comparable! internationally! or! to! other! historical! periods,! because! no! international! benchmark! comparison! was! made! and! no! series! existed!for!the!period!after!WWI!allowing!to!connect!the!series!to!later!GDP!levels.!The!authors! of!the!project!were!aware!of!this!shortGcoming!and!noted!themselves,!that!the!value!added!series! by!industry!were!more!reliable!in!terms!of!their!evolution!over!time!than!in!terms!of!absolute! level!(Projer!1990,!p.!3).!This!has!important!implications!for!interGindustry!differences!of!value! added!per!worker,!which!is!essentially!what!my!estimation!method!relies!on.!Also!the!authors!of! the! project! were! unable! to! estimate! value! added! of! all! industries.! In! manufacturing,! the! industries! for! which! estimates! were! elaborated! accounted! for! approximately! 82%! of! employment.!Projer!solved!this!problem!by!assuming!that!the!industries!for!which!they!had!no! estimates!evolved!in!parallel!to!the!industries!for!which!they!managed!to!estimate!value!added.! Hence!they!simply!divided!the!sum!of!industries’!value!added!by!0.82!in!order!to!estimate!value! added!of!the!entire!sector!(Projer!1990).! Now! that! a! benchmarked! series! exists,! the! one! elaborated! by! Ritzmann! (HSSO! Q.17),! it! makes! sense!to!connect!the!estimates!for!the!period!1851G1890!of!the!Nationalfondsprojekt!to!the!1890! level!of!Ritzmann’s!series.!Hiestand!et!al.!propose!such!a!connection!for!aggregate!GDP,!without! changing!the!relative!weight!of!value!added!between!industries.!I!argue!that!it!would!be!better! to! connect! the! value! added! series! sector! by! sector,! in! order! to! benchmark! also! the! between! industry! differences! in! value! added.! This! also! allows! for! a! better! solution! of! the! problem! concerning!the!industries!for!which!value!added!could!not!be!estimated.!Instead!of!assuming!a! parallel! evolution! of! the! missing! series! to! the! evolution! of! the! whole! aggregate,! my! method! assumes! parallel! evolution! of! these! industries! to! a! more! narrowly! defined! aggregate.! For! example,!the!missing!value!added!series!for!the!wool!industry!is!assumed!to!evolve!in!parallel!to! the!estimated!textile!industries,!not!the!entire!manufacturing!sector.! In! order! to! connect! the! two! databases! on! value! added! and! the! employment! dataset! for! the! period!1860!to!1890,!the!different!industrial!classifications!had!to!be!harmonized.!The!resulting! classification,! NFP_15,! is! listed! in! table! 8.! Tables! 11! to! 14! show! the! conversion! of! the! employment!statistics!of!the!population!census!to!NFP_15.!A!particularity!of!this!classification!is! that!the!textiles,!the!chemicals,!the!paperindustry,!and!the!leather!and!caoutchouc!industry!had! to! be! lumped! together.! This! was! necessary! because! the! population! census! counted! the! dying! industry,! leather! fabrication! and! caoutchouc! to! the! chemical! industry,! while! the! value! added! series! of! the! Nationalfondsprojekt! counted! the! dying! industry! to! textiles.! This! also! solves! the!

146!


problem! that! the! Nationalfondsprojekt! did! not! provide! any! estimation! for! the! chemical,! the! leather,! and! the! caoutchouc! industry.! The! underlying! assumption! is! that! value! added! of! these! industries! evolved! in! parallel! to! that! of! the! cotton,! silk,! and! embroidery! industry! (incl.! dying).! For!the!chemical!industry!this!is!a!reasonable!assumption!because!dystuffs!represented!a!very! important!part!of!the!industry!(Straumann!1995).!The!Nationalfondsprojekt!did!not!provide!an! estimate!for!the!graphical!industry!either.!Instead!of!lumping!the!industry!together!with!another! industry,! I! applied! an! alternative! estimation! method.! I! used! the! wage! index! for! the! graphical! industry! (HSSO! G.02)! as! an! indicator! for! the! evolution! of! value! added! per! worker! and! extrapolated!backward!from!Ritzmann’s!1890!level!of!value!added!per!worker.! Figure! 5! compares! value! added! per! worker! of! the! different! NFP_15! industries.! The! graph! also! allows!for!a!comparison!between!the!value!added!per!worker!according!to!the!NFP_15!and!the! RD_19! classifications.! Differences! stem! from! the! fact! that! the! NFP_15! classification! for! employment! is! much! less! detailed! and! matches! the! corresponding! value! added! sector! less! accurately.! However,! the! graph! suggests! that! the! two! classifications! yield! results! that! are! very! close.!Hence!my!estimates!of!regional!value!added!per!worker,!GDP,!and!regional!inequality!for! the!period!before!1888!and!after!1888!are!comparable.!

Summary' This!paper!has!elaborated!an!extensive!dataset!on!regional!employment,!GDP,!and!value!added! per!worker.!The!advantages!of!this!database!are!the!following:! 1) The! dataset! covers! a! large! time! period:! 1860! to! 2008;! and! the! aggregates! of! the! employment!dataset!are!homogenous!in!time.! 2) The!regions!are!functional!and!comparable!among!each!other;!they!correspond!relatively! closely!to!the!regions!proposed!today!by!the!Federal!statistical!office!for!spatial!analysis;! and! they! allow! for! the! comparison! of! mechanisms! occurring! at! different! geographical! levels.! 3) The! employment! dataset! accounts! for! seasonal! workers! and! commuters! within! Switzerland!and!across!national!borders.! 4) Industrial! classifications,! particularly! for! the! period! 1888! to! 2000,! are! very! detailed! in! comparison!to!other!historical!datasets!(54!industries).! 5) The!estimation!of!regional!GDP!and!value!added!is!based!on!employment!statistics!that! correspond!to!the!“domestic”!concept.! The!disadvantages!of!the!database!are!the!following:! 1) It! was! impossible! to! harmonize! employment! statistics! over! the! whole! period.! Lacking! information! on! the! period! before! 1888! forced! me! to! construct! a! separate! and! less! detailed!industrial!classification!for!this!period.!


147!

2) A! certain! inconsistency! is! also! present! between! the! employment! statistics! before! 1970! and! after.! This! inconsistency! concerns! the! industrial! classification! and! the! fact! that! the! data! from! 1970! onwards! counts! also! partGtime! workers,! which! is! not! the! case! before.! The! inconsistency! is! somewhat! “diluted”! by! the! fact! that! I! consider! a! larger! time! span! (1941G1970)!to!bridge!this!inconsistency.! 3) The! estimates! of! regional! GDP! and! value! added! neglect! intraGindustry! productivity! differentials! between! regions.! This! is! conceptually! disappointing,! but! empirically! these! differentials! are! clearly! dominated! by! the! structural! differences! that! I! do! account! for.! Also! the! neglected! productivity! effect! is! most! likely! to! go! in! the! same! direction! as! the! estimated! structural! effect.! Hence,! my! estimates! of! regional! inequality! are! biased! downward,! which! will! be! less! of! a! problem! for! studies! that! seek! to! analyze! spatial! phenomena.! ! !

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148!


Data'sources' Territorial$subdivisions$ BFS! 01:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik,! 2000.! Les!niveaux!géographiques!de!la!Suisse!2000,! Neuchâtel:! OFS.!Data!file:!www.bfs.admin.ch,!beGbG00.04GrgsG00! ! Population$ BFS! 02:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik,! Eidgenössische! Volkszählung! 2000.! Bevölkerungsentwicklung! der! Gemeinden! 1850H2000.! Excel! files:! www.bfs.admin.ch,! StatGtab,! Bevölkerungsentwicklung! nach!Region,!1850G2000! ! Schluchter,!A.,!1988.!Die!Bevölkerung!der!Schweiz!um!1800:!eine!Auswertung!der!Helvetischen! Volkszählung! von! 1798! und! anderer! zeitnaher! Erhebungen,! mit! Einbezug! der! Bevölkerungsentwicklung!bis!1980,!Bern:!Bundesamt!für!Statistik.! ! Employment$ BFS! 03:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Eidgenössische! Volkszählungen,! 1850! –! 1960,! Beschäftigungsstatistik.! Pdf! files:! www.bfs.admin.ch,! Statistisches! Lexikon,! Historische! Kollektion,!40!Volkszählungen.!! ! BFS!04:!Bundesamt!für!Statistik.!Eidgenössische!Volkszählungen,!1970G2000.!Beschäftigung!der! Gemeinden! (Arbeitsort)! nach! harmonisierten! Wirtschaftszweigen! (ASWZ1985),! Excel! files! obtained!from!Sektion!Demographie!und!Migration.! ! BFS! 05:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Eidgenössische! Betriebszählungen! 1985G2008.! Excel! file:! Beschäftigung! und! Unternehmungen! nach! Gemeinden! und! Branchen! (1985! and! 1991:! 2Gdigit! NOGA02,!1995G2008:!4Gdigit!NOGA02)!Excel!files!obtained!from!Sektion!Unternehmensstruktur.! ! BFS! 06:! Eidgenössisches! Statistisches! Amt.! Eidgenössische! Betriebszählungen! 1929! und! 1939.! Bern:!Statistisches!Amt.!Bibliothek!Bundesamt!für!Statistik.! ! Commuting$ BFS! 07:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Eidgenössische! Volkszählungen! 1910,! 1930! –! 1960.! Wohnort! und! Arbeitsort! der! schweizerischen! Bevölkerung.! Pdf! files:! www.bfs.admin.ch,! Statistisches! Lexikon,!Historische!Kollektion,!40!Volkszählungen.!


149!

! BFS! 08:! Bundeamt! für! Statistik.! Grenzgängerstatistik,! August! 2000.! Excel! files:! www.bfs.admin.ch,!StatGtab,!Ausländische!Grenzgänger!nach!Geschlecht!und!Arbeitsgemeinde.! ! BFM! 01:! Bundesamt! für! Ausländerfragen.! Schweizerisches! Zentrales! Ausländerregister.! Die! Ausländer! in! der! Schweiz,! August! 1980! und! 1990.! Grenzgänger! nach! Kanton! und! Wirtschaftsklassen.!Bibliothek!Bundesamt!für!Statistik.! ! BFM! 02:! Bundesamt! für! Ausländerfragen.! Schweizerisches! Zentrales! Ausländerregister.! Die! Ausländer! in! der! Schweiz,! August! 1980! und! 1990.! Saisonarbeiter! nach! Kanton! und! Wirtschaftklassen.!Bibliothek!Bundesamt!für!Statistik.! ! BIGA! 01:! Bundesamt! für! Industrie,! Gewerbe! und! Arbeit.! Bestandesaufnahme! der! kontollpflichtigen,! ausländischen! Arbeitskräfte! 1949G1960,! Februar! und! August.! Bibliothek! Bundesamt!für!Statistik,!Neuchâtel.! ! La!vie!économique.!Publication!du!Département!Fédéral!de!l’Economie,!1928!–!1960.!Permis!de! séjour!et!d’établissement.! ! Conseil!d’Etat!de!la!République!et!du!canton!de!Genève.!Comptes!d’Etat!de!la!République!et!du! canton!de!Genève,!1930.!Permis!de!frontaliers.!Archives!d’Etat!de!la!République!et!du!Canton!de! Genève.! ! Banz,! M.,! 1964.! Die! deutschen! und! französischen! Grenzgänger! auf! dem! baselstädtischen! Arbeitsmarkt,!Basel:!Werner!und!Bischoff.! ! Meusburger,! P.,! 1969.! Die! Vorarlberger! Grenzgaenger,! Innsbruck:! im! Kommissionsverlag! der! Oesterreichischen!Kommissionsbuchhandlung.! ! Krucker,!H.,!1926.!Wirtschaftsgeographie!des!Rheingebietes!BaselGBodensee,!St.!Gallen.! ! Gross$domestic$product$and$value$added$by$industry$ BFS! 09:! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Gross! domestic! product! (GDP),! production! approach! 1990G 2008.!Data!file:!www.bfs.admin.ch,!jeGeG04.02.01.! !

150!


BFS! 10.! Bundesamt! für! Statistik.! Produktionskonto! nach! Branchen! 1997G2012.! Data! file:! www.bfs.admin.ch,!jeGdG04.03.01.! ! HSSO! Q.01.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! tables! Q.01,! K.16,! M.01,! N.01,! O.10,! P.01,! U.01.!

Bruttowertschöpfung!

nach!

Branchen!

1860G1890.!

Available!

at:!

http://www.fsw.uzh.ch/histstat/main.php.! See! also! explanations! in! Siegenthaler,! H.! &! RitzmannGBlickenstorfer,! H.! éd.,! 1996.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz," Zürich:" Chronos;" and" Projer,! E.,! 1990.! III!Schätzung!der!Bruttowertschöpfung!im!2.!Sektor!NFHProjekt:!Geldmenge!und! Wirtschaftswachstum!in!der!Schweiz,!1851!bis!1913!1.!Aufl.,!Zürich:!Sozialökonomisches!Seminar,! Abt.!Wirtschaftsgeschichte.! ! HSSO! Q.02.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.02.! Bruttowertschöpfung! nach! Branchen! 1960G1990.! See! also! Kneschaurek,! F.! et! al.,! 1983.! Daten! für! Branchenmodelle! der! Schweizerischen!Wirtschaft,!Zürich.! ! HSSO! Q.05.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.05.! Volkseinkommen! der! Kantone! 1965G1993.! ! HSSO! Q.06:! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.06.! Sozialprodukt! nach! Verwendungsarten,!1948G1990.!Available!online!at!! ! HSSO! Q.17.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.17.! Bruttowertschöpfung! nach! Branchen! 1890G1960.! See! also! RitzmannGBlickenstorfer,! H.,! 1998.! «!Alte! Statistiken!»! G! ein! Eldorado! für! Langzeitreihenbildner.! Indikatoren! zur! regionalen! Wirtschaftsentwicklung! im! Zeitraum!1888G1965.!Geschichte!und!Informatik,!9,!p.103‑120;!and!RitzmannGBlickenstorfer,!H.!&! David,! T.,! 2012.! Bruttoinlandprodukt! 1890G1960.! In! Wirtschaftsgeschichte! der! Schweiz! im! 20.! Jahrhundert.!Zürich.!I!also!used!unpublished!data!on!value!added!by!industry!and!corresponding! employment!figures!provided!to!me!by!Ritzmann.! ! HSSO! Q.19.! Historische! Statistik! der! Schweiz! Online,! table! Q.19.! Volkseinkommen! der! Kantone! 1890G2005.! !

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'


155!

Appendix' ! Table'1:'Descriptive'statistics'of'Area'Size'in'Km2' !!

Cantons!

Districts!

MS!

MSR!

BE!

BER!

NUTSII!

N! 26! 184! 106! 97! 16! 16! 7! Min! 39! 6! 39! 85! 433! 411! 1666! Max! 7168! 1057! 1481! 1268! 7277! 7182! 11377! Sum! 40189! 40189! 40189! 40189! 40189! 40189! 40189! Mean! 1546! 218! 379! 414! 2512! 2512! 5741! Standard!Deviation! 1815! 193! 291! 291! 1839! 1822! 3725! Coefficient!of! Variation! 1.17! 0.89! 0.77! 0.70! 0.73! 0.73! 0.65! Max/Min! 182.8! 185.2! 37.8! 15.0! 16.8! 17.5! 6.8! Numbers!refer!to!the!territorial!definitions!of!the!year!2000.!Minor!changes!have!occurred!between!1798!and!2000! (Schuler!et!al.!2005).!But!after!2000!several!cantons!have!completely!redefined!their!districts.! ! !

!

156!


Table'2:'Conversion'table'districts'to'MSR'regions' MSR:!Reconstructed!MS!Region!

Districts!

Code!

Name!

Codes!

msr001.00324!

Zürich!und!Limmattal!

151!

!

!

!

!

!

Zürich!und!Dietikon!

msr004!

Knonaueramt!!

101!

!

!

!

!

!

Affoltern!

msr005!

Zimmerberg!!!

106!

!

!

!

!

!

Horgen!

msr006!

Pfannenstiel!

107!

!

!

!

!

!

Meilen!

ms007.00225!

Zürcher!

!

!

!

Hinwil,!

Oberland!

(parts!

Name!

105!

108!

109!

of!

Uster!

und!

Pfäffikon!

Glattal/Furttal)! msr008!

Winterthur!!!

110!

!

!

!

!

!

Winterthur!

msr009!

Weinland!

102!

!

!

!

!

!

Andelfingen!

msr010.002!

Zürcher!

103!

104! !

!

!

!

Bülach!und!Dielsdorf!

Unterland!

(parts!

of!

Glattal/Furttal)! msr011!

Bern!

203!

209! !

!

!

!

Bern!und!Fraubrunnen!

msr012!

ErlachGSeeland!!!

201!

208! !

!

!

!

Aarberg!und!Erlach!

msr013!

Biel/Bienne!

204!

216! !

!

!

!

Biel!und!Nidau!

msr014!

Jura!bernois!

214!

215! !

!

!

!

Moutier!et!Neuveville!

msr015!

Oberaargau!!!

202!

226! !

!

!

!

Aarwangen!

und!

Wangen! msr016!

Burgdorf!

206!

225! !

!

!

!

Burgdorf!

und!

Trachselwald! msr017!

Oberes!Emmental!!

223!

msr018!

Aaretal!!

212!

!

!

!

!

!

Signau!

222! !

!

!

!

Konolfingen!

und!

Seftigen! msr019!

Schwarzwasser!!!!

221!

msr020!

Thun!

224!

!

!

!

!

!

Schwarzenburg!

217! !

!

!

!

Thun!

und!

Niedersimmental! msr021!

SaanenG

220!

219! !

!

!

!

Obersimmental!

Saanen!

und!

Obersimmental!

msr022!

Kandertal!!!!

210!

msr023!

OberlandGOst!

211!

!

!

!

!

!

Frutigen!

218! !

!

!

!

Interlaken!

und!

Oberhasli! msr025!

Laufental!!!!

1104!

1302!

1110!

!

!

!

Dorneck,!

Laufen,!

Thierstein! msr026!

Luzern!!!

303!

msr027!

SurseeGSeetal!!!!

304!

msr028!

Willisau!

305!

302! !

!

!

!

Luzern!und!Hochdorf!

!

!

!

!

!

Sursee!

!

!

!

!

!

Willisau!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 24!MSR001!and!MSR003!have!been!merged!because!the!district!of!Dietikon!which!composes!MSR003!has!been!created!

only!in!1980.! 25!MSR002! could! not! be! reconstructed! because! no! district! belonged! with! at! least! 60%! to! this! region! and! important!

parts!of!this!region!belong!to!districts!that!were!assigned!to!other!MSR!regions.!


157!

msr029!

Entlebuch!!!!

301!

!

!

!

!

!

Entlebuch!

msr030!

Uri!!

400!

!

!

!

!

!

Uri!

msr031!

Innerschwyz!!

506!

!

!

!

Schwyz,! Küssnacht! und!

504!

502!

Gersau! msr032!

Einsiedeln!!!

501!

msr033!

MarchGHöfe!

505!

msr034!

Sarneraatal!!

600!

msr035!

Nidwalden!

!

!

!

!

Einsiedeln!

503! !

!

!

!

March!und!Höfe!

!

!

!

!

!

Kanton!Obwalden!

700!

!

!

!

!

!

Kanton!Nidwalden!

msr036.03726! Glarus!

800!

!

!

!

!

!

Kanton!Glarus!

msr038!

Zug!!

900!

!

!

!

!

!

Kanton!Zug!

msr039!

La!Sarine!!!!

1004!

!

!

!

!

!

Sarine!

msr040!

La!Gruyère!!!

1003!

!

!

!

!

!

Gruyère!

msr041!

Sense!!!!

1006!

!

!

!

!

!

Sense!

msr042!

Murten/Morat!

1005!

2203!

!

!

!

Laupen,!

213!

!

See!

und!

Avenches! msr043!

GlâneGVeveyse!!!!

msr044.04527! Olten!und!Thal!

1002!

1007! !

!

!

!

Glâne!et!Veveyse!

1101!

1105!

1102!

!

!

Olten,! Gösgen,! Gäu! und!

1108!

Thal! msr046.02428! Solothurn!

und!

1106!

1109!

1103!

1107!

205!

!

Grenchen!

Solothurn,!

Lebern,!

Wasseramt,! Bucheggberg!

und!

Büren! msr047.04829! BaselGStadt!

und!

1200!

1301!

!

!

!

!

Unteres!Baselbiet! msr049!

Oberes!Baselbiet!

BaselGStadt!

und!

Arlesheim! 1303!

1304!

1305!

!

!

!

Liestal,!

Sissach!

und!

Waldenburg! msr050!

Schaffhausen!

1403!

1402!

1405!

1401!

1406!

1404!

Kanton!Schaffhausen!

msr051!

Appenzell!A.Rh.!!

1501!

1502!

1503!

!

!

!

Kanton!

Appenzell!

Ausser!Rhoden! msr052!

Appenzell!I.Rh.!!

1600!

!

!

!

!

!

Kanton!

Appenzell!

Innerrhoden! msr053!

St.Gallen!

1701!

1702!

1714!

!

!

!

St.! Gallen,! Rorschach! und!Gossau!

msr054!

Rheintal!

1704!

1703! !

!

!

!

msr055!

Werdenberg!!!

1705!

!

!

!

!

OberG!

und!

Unterrheintal! !

Werdenberg!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 26!MSR036!and!MSR037!had!to!be!merged!because!they!are!part!of!one!and!the!same!district.! 27!MSR044!and!MSR045!had!to!be!merged!because!until!1900!the!districts!Gäu!and!Thal!were!not!reported!separately.! 28!MSR046! and! MSR024! had! to! merged! because! the! districts! Solothurn! and! Lebern! were! not! reported! separately!

before!1900.! 29!MSR047!and!MSR048!were!merged!to!be!more!comparable!to!the!MSR!regions!corresponding!to!Zurich!and!Geneva!

and!because!they!clearly!form!an!agglomeration.!

158!


msr056!

Sarganserland!!!!

1706!

!

!

!

!

!

Sargans!

msr057!

Linthgebiet!!

1708!

1707! !

!

!

!

See!und!Gaster!

msr058!

Toggenburg!!!

1710!

1709! !

!

!

!

NeuG!

und!

Obertoggenburg! msr059!

Wil!!

2006!

1713!

1711!

1712!

!

!

Münchwilen,!

Wil,!

UnterG!

und!

Alttoggenburg! msr060.06330! Chur!und!Schanfigg!

1812!

1813!

1806!

!

!

!

Plessur,!Unterlandquart! und!Imboden!

msr061.06231! Prättigau!und!Davos!

1811!

!

!

!

!

!

Oberlandquart!

msr064!

Mittelbünden!

1801!

!

!

!

!

!

Albula!

msr065!

Viamala!

1804!

1805! !

!

!

!

Heinzenberg!

und!

Hinterrhein! msr066!

Surselva!

1803!

1814! !

!

!

!

Glenner!

und!

Vorderrhein! msr067!

Engiadina!Bassa!!

1807!

1810! !

!

!

!

Inn!und!Val!Müstair!

msr068!

Oberengadin!!

1808!

1802! !

!

!

!

Maloja!und!Bernina!

msr069!

Mesolcina!!!!

1809!

!

!

!

!

!

Moesa!

msr070!

Aarau!!!!

1901!

1910!

1907!

1905!

!

!

Aarau,!

Zofingen,!

Lenzburg!und!Kulm! msr071!

BruggGZurzach!!!!

1904!

1911! !

!

!

!

Brugg!und!Zurzach!

msr072!

Baden!!!!

1902!

!

!

!

!

!

Baden!

1908!

1903! !

!

!

!

Muri!und!Bremgarten!

1909!

1906! !

!

!

!

Rheinfelden!

msr073.07432! Mutschellen!

und!

Freiamt! msr075!

Fricktal!

und!

Laufenburg! msr076!

Thurtal!!

2004!

2008! !

!

!

!

Frauenfeld!

und!

Weinfelden! msr077!

Untersee!

2005!

2003!

2007!

!

!

!

Kreuzlingen,! Diessenhofen!

und!

Steckborn! msr078!

Oberthurgau!!

2001!

2002! !

!

!

!

Arbon!und!Bischofszell!

msr079!

Tre!Valli!!!!

2107!

2103!

!

!

!

Distretti!

2102!

di!

Riviera,!

Leventina!et!Blenio! msr080!

Locarno!!

2104!

2108! !

!

!

!

Distretti! di! Locarno! e! Vallemaggia!

msr081!

Bellinzona!!!

2101!

!

!

!

!

!

Distretto!di!Bellinzona!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 30!MSR060! and! MSR063! had! to! be! merged! because! the! latter! is! composed! entirely! of! inhabitants! of! district! 1812,!

which!though!belongs!to!more!than!80%!to!MSR060.! 31!MSR061! and! MSR062! had! to! be! merged! because! the! latter! is! composed! entirely! of! inhabitants! of! district! 1811,!

which!though!belongs!mainly!to!MSR061.! 32!MSR073!and!MSR074!had!to!be!merged!because!district!1903!is!difficult!to!attribute:!it!belongs!mainly!to!MSR073!

but!contains!an!important!part!of!MSR074.!


159!

msr082!

Lugano!!!

2105!

!

!

!

!

!

Distretto!di!Lugano!

msr083!

Mendrisio!!!!

2106!

!

!

!

!

!

Distretto!di!Mendrisio!

msr084!

Lausanne!

2207!

!

!

!

!

!

Lausanne!

msr085!

Morges!

2209!

2216!

2202!

!

!

!

Morges,!

Rolle!

et!

Aubonne! msr086!

Nyon!

2211!

!

!

!

!

!

Nyon!

msr087!

Vevey!

2218!

2208! !

!

!

!

Vevey!et!Lavaux!

msr088!

Aigle!!!!

2201!

!

!

!

!

!

Aigle!

msr089!

Pays!d'Enhaut!!!!

2215!

!

!

!

!

!

PaysGd'Enhaut!

msr090!

GrosGdeGVaud!

2204!

2205!

2212!

!

!

!

Cossonay,! Echallens! et! Orbe!

msr091!

Yverdon!!

2219!

2206! !

!

!

!

Districts! d'Yverdon! et! Grandson!

msr092!

La!Vallée!!!!

2217!

!

!

!

!

!

La!Vallée!

msr093!

La!Broye!

1001!

2214!

2210!

2213!

!

!

Broye,!

Payerne,!

Moudon!et!Oron! msr094!

Goms!

2304!

!

!

!

!

!

Goms!

ms095!

Brig!

2301!

!

!

!

!

!

Brig!

msr096!

Visp!

2313!

2309! !

!

!

!

Visp!und!Raron!

msr097!

Leuk!

2306!

!

!

!

!

!

Leuk!

msr098!

Sierre!!!

2311!

!

!

!

!

!

Sierre!

msr099!

Sion!

2312!

2302!

2305!

!

!

!

Sion,!Conthey!et!Hérens!

msr100!

Martigny!

2307!

2303! !

!

!

!

Martigny!et!Entremont!

msr101!

Monthey!

2308!

2310! !

!

!

!

Monthey!

et!

SaintG

Maurice! msr102!

Neuchâtel!!!!

2404!

2401!

2405!

!

!

!

Neuchâtel,! Boudry! et! ValGdeGRuz!

msr103!

La!ChauxGdeGFonds!!!!

2402!

2403!

207!

!

!

!

ChauxGdeGFonds,! Locle! et!Courtelary!

msr104!

ValGdeGTravers!!!

2406!

!

!

!

!

!

ValGdeGTravers!

msr105!

Genève!!!

2500!

!

!

!

!

!

Canton!

de!

(District)! msr106!

Jura!

2601!

! !

'

2602!

2603!

!!

!!

!!

Canton!du!Jura!

Genève!

160!


Table'3:'Conversion'table'MSR'regions'to'BER'regions' BER!

!

! MSR!

!

ber01!

Genève!

! msr086,!msr105!

ber02!

Lausanne!

! msr084,!msr085,!msr087,!msr088,!msr090,!msr091,!msr092,!msr093,!msr101!

ber03!

Sion!

! msr094,!msr095,!msr096,!msr097,!msr098,!msr099,!msr100,!!

ber04!

Fribourg!

! msr039,!msr040,!msr041,!msr042,!msr043,!msr089!

ber05!

Neuchâtel!

! msr102,!msr103,!msr104,!!

ber06!

Biel/Bienne!

! msr013,!msr014,!msr046.024,!msr106!

ber07!

Bern!

! msr011,!msr012,!msr016,!msr017,!msr018,!msr019,!msr020,!msr021,!msr022,!msr023!

ber08!

Basel!

! msr025,!msr047.048,!msr049,!msr075!

ber09!

AarauGOlten!

! msr015,!msr044.045,!msr070!

ber10!

Zürich!

ber11! ber12!

WinterthurG Schaffhausen! St.!Gallen!

! msr001.003,!msr004,!msr005,!msr006,!msr007.002,!msr010.002,!msr032,!msr033,! msr036.037,!msr038,!msr057,!msr071,!msr072,!msr073.074! ! msr008,!msr009,!msr050,!msr076,!msr077!

!

!

!

!

ber13!

Chur!

! msr056,!msr060.063,!msr061.062,!msr064,!msr065,!msr066,!msr067,!msr068!

ber14!

Luzern!

! msr026,!msr027,!msr028,!msr029,!msr030,!msr031,!msr034,!msr035!

ber15!

Bellinzona!

! msr069,!msr079,!msr080,!msr081!

ber16!

Lugano!

! msr082,!msr083!

! msr051,!msr052,!msr053,!msr054,!msr055,!msr058,!msr059,!msr078!

!

!

!

'


161!

Table'4:'Resemblance'BER'regions'to'BE'regions' INCL! EXCESS! RESEMBLANCE! ! BER01! 100.0! 0.0! 100.00! BER02! 98.1! 0.0! 98.07! BER03! 98.3! 0.0! 98.27! BER04! 95.4! 0.0! 95.41! BER05! 100.0! 0.0! 100.00! BER06! 97.5! 0.0! 97.50! BER07! 98.6! 0.0! 98.59! BER08! 99.7! 0.0! 99.67! BER09! 95.2! 0.0! 95.23! BER10! 99.4! 6.8! 92.59! BER11! 92.6! 0.0! 92.59! BER12! 100.0! 0.0! 100.00! BER13! 98.0! 0.0! 97.97! BER14! 100.0! 0.0! 100.00! BER15! 100.0! 0.0! 100.00! BER16! 99.5! 0.0! 99.54! Rationale:!This!table!provides!an!indicator!that!measures!the!correspondence!between!my!reconstructed!BE!regions! (BER)! and! the! official! BE! regions! of! the! Federal! statistical! office.! A! value! of! 100! indicates! that! a! BER! region! corresponds!exactly!to!the!BE!regions!with!the!same!number.! ! !

!

'

162!


Table'5:'Employment'data'sources' !!

Population!census! (Eidgenössische!Volkszählung)!

Years!

1860,!1870,!1880,!1888,!1900,! 1910,!1920,!1930,!1941,!1950,! 1960,!1970,!1980,!1990,!2000! !

Census!period! December! ! Accounting!unit! Household! ! Employment! Number!of!persons!declared!to! have!an!economic!activity!(.!! Criterion!

Residency!in!Switzerland!

Location!

Place!of!residency! (1970G2000!also!workplace)! ! Excludes!international!inG commuters!and!seasonal!workers! who!are!absent!in!December,!! Underreporting!of!female!labor,!! Secondary!activities!are!not! counted!(principal!activity!=!the! one!that!generates!the!highest! income)! ! No!distinction!of!partGtime! workers!

Missing!

Upward!bias!

Information!on! districts!or! lower! geographical! units!

Industrial!census! (Eidgenössische! Betriebszählung)! 1905,!1929,!1939,!1955,! 1965,!1975,!1985,!1991,! 1995,!1998,!2001,!2005,!2008!

August!

Factory!census! (Eidgenössische! Fabrikenzählung)! 1882,!1885,!1888,!1895,! 1901,!1907,!1911,!1916,! 1918,!1923,!1926,!1929,! 1933,!1937,!1941,!1944,! 1949,!1954,!1959,!1964! ! !

Firm/branch!

Factory!

Number!of!persons!employed! Number!of!workers!of!the! in!the!firm/branch! factory!who!are!subject!to!the! factory!law! ! Employed!in!Switzerland! Employed!in!a!factory!subject! to!the!factory!law.!Factories! are!industrial!units!that!fulfill! at!least!one!of!the!following! criteria:! 1) working!with! machines;! 2) at!least!10!workers! in!the!unit!or!50! homeworkers;! 3) mainly!exportG oriented!production.! ! Workplace! Workplace! ! Excludes!homeworkers!and! informal!work,! No!information!on! employment!in!the!public! sector!

No!distinction!of!partGtime! workers!(fullGtime! equivalents!only!after!1998)! ! 1860G1880:!industries!(N1860:! 1905:!detailed!industry!data! 28;!N1870:!25;!N1880:!34)!by! by!district,! district;!! ! ! 1929G1975:!detailed!industry! 1888G1920:!detailed!industry! data!only!for!cantons!and!the! data!(N1888:!142;!N1900:!221;! largest!cities;!! N1910:!232;!N1920:!247)!by! ! district! 1929G1939:!29!industries!in! ! 30!cities,!MunicipalityGlevel! 1930G1960:!district!data!for!4! maps!for!certain!industries;! sectors,!detailed!industry!data! ! (N1930:!299;!N1941:!290;! 1985G1991:!2002GNOGA!2G N1950:!290;!N1960:!167)!only! digit!industries!by! for!cantons!and!the!largest!cities,! municipality! ! ! 1970G2000:!detailed!industry! 1995G2008:!2002GNOGA!4G data!(N:!90)!for!any!geographical! digit!industries!by! level! municipality!

Excludes!workers,! firms/branches,!and! industries/services,!which! are!not!subject!to!the!factory! law.! !

No!distinction!of!partGtime! workers! No!detailed!industry!data!by! district!


! Table'6:'Titles'HI_19'Classification' Code'

Title'(German)'

I!A!

Bergbau,!Steinbrüche,!Torfstich!und!Salinen!

I!B!

Landwirthschaft,!Viehzucht,!SeidenG!und!Bienenzucht!

I!C!

Forstwirthschaft!

I!D!

Jagd!und!Fischerei!

II!A!

Lebensmittel!

II!B!

Bekleidung!und!Putz!

II!C!

Bau!und!Einrichtung!von!Wohnungen!

II!D!

Typographische!und!bezügliche!Gewerbe!

II!E!

Spinnerei,!Weberei,!Zwirnerei!und!Stickerei!

II!F!

Chemische!Gewerbe!

II!G!

MaschinenG!und!Werkzeugfabrikation!

III!A!

Handel!

III!B!

BankG,!AgenturG,!und!Versicherungswesen!

III!C!

Gastgewerbe!

IV!

Verkehr!

V!A!

öffentliche!Verwaltung!und!Justiz!

V!B!

Gesundheitswesen!

V!C!

Kultus!und!Unterricht,!übrige!Wissenschaften,!Künste!

VI!

Dienstmänner,!Holzhacker,!Dienstboten,!Hausdienst!

Z!

unbekannt!

! ! !

!

163!

164!


Table'7:'Titles'HI_54'Classification' Code' A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! B!01! B!02! B!03! B!04! B!05! B!06! C!01! C!02! C!03! C!04! D!01! D!02! E!01! E!02! E!03! F!01! F!02! G!01! H!01! H!02! I!01! I!02! I!03! J!01! K!01! L!01! M!01! M!02! N!01! N!02! N!03! O!01! O!02! O!03! P!01! Q!01! Q!02! Q!03! Q!04! R!01! S!01! S!02! S!03! T!01! U!01! V!01! W!01! W!02! X!01! X!03! Z!

!

Title'(German)' Landwirtschaft!und!Viehzucht! Gartenbau! Bewirtschaftung!und!Ausbeutung!des!Waldes! Jagd!und!Fischerei! Metzgerei,!Herstellung!von!Fleischwaren! Käserei!und!Milchsiederei! Müllerei! Bäckerei,!Zuckerbäckerei,!Schokolade,!Teigwaren,!Kaffee(ersatzmittel)!und!andere!Nahrungsmittel! Getränkeindustrie! Bearbeitung!des!Tabaks! Spinnerei,!Weberei! Textilveredelung! Stickerei! übrige!Textilindustrie! Kleiderindustrie! Schuhindustrie! Lederindustrie! Kautschukindustrie! Hornwaren,!Kunststoff! Herstellung!von!Papierstoff!und!Papier! Herstellung!von!PapierG!und!Kartonwaren! Graphische!Gewerbe! Sägerei,!Schreinerei,!Glaserei! Holzwaren,!Flechterei! Extraktion!von!Mineralien,!Bearbeitung!nicht!metallischer!Mineralien,!Bildhauer! Gips,!Zement,!Asphalt! KalkG!und!Ziegelbrennerei,!Glas!und!Keramikindustre! Chemische!Industrie! Metallindustrie! Maschinenindustrie!inklusive!Eisengiesserei! Herstellung!von!Uhren!und!Uhrmacherwerkzeug! Bijouterie,!GravierG!und!Münzanstalten! Tapeziererei,!MatratzenG!und!Bettmacherei,!KnopfG!und!Kammmacherei,!BesenG,!Bürstenbinderei! Musikinstrumente! Spielwaren,!Sportgeräte! HochG!und!Tiefbau! Dachdecker,!Ofenbau,!Maler,!Gipser,!Plattenleger! Spengler,!Sanitäre,!Lüftung,!Klimatisation,!Elektrische!Installationen! Elektrizität,!Gas,!Wasser! Eigenlicher!Handel!(inkl.!Apotheken)! Versicherungswesen! Banken! Vermittlungsdienstleistungen! Gastwirschaft,!Kostgeberei! Eisenbahnen,!Fuhrwerkerei,!Botengeschäfte,!Auswanderungsbureaux,!VerkehrsG!und!Reisebureaux! Schifffahrt!und!Flösslerei! PostG!und!Telegraphenbetrieb! Oeffentliche!Verwaltung,!Polizei,!Strafvollzug,!Landesverteidigung! Gesundheitswesen! Unterrichtswesen! Seelsorge,!Versorgungsanstalten! Kunst,!Kultur,!Sport,!Erholung! Häusliche!u!persönl!Dienste,!Reinigungsgewerbe,!Taglöhnerei! HaarG!und!Bartpflege,!Herstellung!von!Haararbeiten! ohne!Angaben!


165!

Table'8:'NFP_15'Classification.'Titles'and'corresponding'industries'of'Q.01'and'RD_41' Industries'' HSSO'Q.01' Bergbau!

Industries' RD_41' Bergbau,!Steinbrüche,!Gruben!

Pflanz.!Produktion! Milchproduktion! Fleischproduktion! Übrige!Viehhaltung! ! Forst,!Jagd,!Fischerei!

Landwirtschaft,! Gartenbau!

Bierbrauerei!K.16,! Metzgerei!K.16,! Käseproduktion!K.16! ! Bekleidung!und!Schuhe!

NahrungsGund!Genussmittel!

TextilG,!ChemieG,!LederG,!und! Papierindustrie!

Baumwollindustrie,! Seidenindustrie,! Stickerei!

NFP!07!

MetallG,!Maschinen,!und! Uhrenindustrie!

Metalle!und!Maschinen,! Uhren!

NFP!08!

Bau,!Holz,!Steine,!Gas,!Wasser!

Bauindustrie!

NFP!09!


Textilien,! Leder,!Kautschuk!und!Kunststoff,! Papierindustrie,! Chemische!Industrie! ! Metalle,! Maschinen,!Fahrzeuge!und! Apparate,! Uhren!und!Schmuck! ! Holz!und!Möbel,! Steine!und!Erden,! Musikinstrumente! Bauindustrie! Elektrizitäte,!Gas!und!Wasser! ! Graphisches!Gewerbe!

NFP!10!

Handel!

Estimation!using!wage!index! Typographisches!Gewerbe!G.02!as! an!indicator!for!the!evolution!of! value!added!by!worker! ! Handel! Grosshandel,! Kleinhandel!

NFP!11!

Gastgewerbe!

Gastgewerbe!

Hotellerie,! Restaurants,!Parahotellerie! !

NFP!12!

Verkehr,! Nachrichtenübermittlung!

Schifffahrt!und!Bahnen,! Bundespost! !

NFP!13!

Banken,!Versicherungen,! Vermittlung!

Banken,! Versicherungen! !

! Bahnen,!Busse,! PTT,!Radio,!TVGStationen,! SchiffG!und!Luftfahrt! ! Banken!und!Börsen! Private!Versicherungen,! Vermittlungsdienstleistungen*!

NFP!14!

Oeffentliche!Verwaltung,! Gesundheit,!Bildung,!Kunst,! Erholung,!Kirche!

Öffentlicher!Sektor!

Code' NFP!01!

Title'(German)' Bergbau!

NFP!02!

Landwirtschaft!

NFP!03!

Forst,!Jagd,!Fischerei!

NFP!04!


NFP!05!

Bekleidung,!Schuhe!

NFP!06!

Forstwirtschaft,! Fischerei!


Öffentliche!Verwaltung,! Gesundheit,! Unterrichtswesen,! Seelsorge,!Kirche!etc! !

166!


NFP!15!

Persönliche!Dienstleistungen,! Reinigung!

Persönliche!Dienstleistungen!

Reinigungsgewerbe,! Bezahlterhausdienst!

Z!

Unbekannt!

!

!

*!see!estimation!method!described!in!the!section!Harmonization!1888G1960.!!

! ! !

'


Table'9:'Titles'RD_41'Classification'' Code' R!01! R!02! R!03! R!04! R!05! R!06! R!07! R!08! R!09! R!10! R!11! R!12! R!13! R!14! R!15! R!16! R!17! R!18! R!20! R!21! R!22! R!23! R!24! R!25! R!26! R!27! R!28! R!29! R!31! R!32! R!33! R!34! R!35! R!36! R!37! R!38! R!39! R!40! R!41! R!42! R!46!

Title'(German)' Landwirtschaft! Gartenbau,!Forstwirtschaft,!Fischerei! Bäckerei,!Müllerei! Schokoladefabrikation! Metzgerei! Bierbrauerei! übige!Nahrungsmittelindustrie! Bearbeitung!des!Tabaks! Baumwolle! Seide! Kunstseide! Wolle! Stickerei! Textilveredelung!! übrige!Textilindustrie! Wirkerei!und!Strickerei! Konfektion,!Wäsche!und!übrige!Bekleidung! Schuhe! Leder! Kautschuk,!Kunststoff! Papier,!Karton! Graphisches!Gewerbe! Holz,!Möbel,!Musikinstrumente! Steine,!Erden! Chemie! Metalle! Maschinenindustrie! Uhren,!Schmuck! Bergbau! Bauwirtschaft! Elektrizität,!Gas,!Wasser! Handel! Banken! Versicherungen! Gastgewerbe! Transport! PTT,!Radio,!TV! öffentliche!Verwaltung! Gesundheitswesen,!Körperpflege,!Unterrichtswesen,!Wissenschaft,!Seelsorge,!Kirche,!Kunst,!Erholung! Reinigungsgewerbe,!Hausdienst! Vermittlungsdienstleistungen!

! !

!

167!

168!


Table'10:'Titles'SGZ_19'Classification' Code'

Title'(German)'

SGZ!01!

Primärsektor!

SGZ!02!


SGZ!03!

Textilien!

SGZ!04!


SGZ!05!


SGZ!06!

Papier!und!Karton!

SGZ!07!


SGZ!08!

Chemische!Produkte!

SGZ!09!

Metalle!

SGZ!10_11!

Maschinen!und!Elektronik!

SGZ!12! SGZ!13!

Uhren!und!Schmuck! Uebrige!Industrien:!Holz!und!Möbel,!Steine!und!Erden,!Bergbau,!Musikinstrumente,!Spielwaren,! Sportgeräte!

SGZ!14!

Bauwirtschaft!

SGZ!15!


SGZ!16!

Banken,!Versicherungen!

SGZ!17!

Gastgewerbe!

SGZ!18!

VerkehrsG!und!Nachrichtenwesen!

SGZ!19!

Übrige!Dienstleistungen:!Oeffentliche!Verwaltung,!Gesundheit,!Bildung,!Kunst,!Erholung,!Kirche!

Z!

Unbekannt!

! Table'11:'Classification'VZ'1860' Original'code'

HI'19'

NFP'15'

I!A!

I!A!

NFP!01!

I!C!

I!C!

NFP!03!

I!D! II!A!

I!D! II!A!

NFP!03! NFP!04!

' !

!

!

!

!

! ! !

II!B!

II!B!

NFP!05!

!

II!C!

II!C!

NFP!08!

! 1,!2,!3!

II!D! II!E!1!

II!D! II!E!

!

NFP!09! NFP!06!

!

! ! !

II!E!2!

II!F!

NFP!06!

!

II!E!3!

II!G!

NFP!07!

! 2,!3,!4!

II!E!4!

Z!

IV!

IV!

! NFP!15!

! 5!

!

II!A!

NFP!04!

8!

!

tw!I!B! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

!

!

Notes:!see!table14! !

!

Note'

!

Original'code'

HI'19'

NFP'15'

Note'

tw!I!B!

I!B!

NFP!02!

8!

tw!III!

III!A!

NFP!10!

5,!8!

tw!III!

III!B!

NFP!13!

6,!8!

tw!III!

III!C!

NFP!11!

8!

tw!VI!

V!B!

NFP!14!

3,!7!

tw!VI!

V!C!

NFP!14!

3,!7!

tw!VI!

VI!

NFP!15!

3,!7!

V!A!

V!A!

NFP!14!

6!

V!B!

V!B!

NFP!14!

V!C!

V!C!

NFP!14!

V!D!

V!C!

NFP!14!

!

V!E!

V!C!

NFP!14!

! 1,!4!

!

!

!

!

!


Table'12:'Classification'1870' Original' code' I!A! I!C!

HI'19' I!A! I!C!

NFP'15'

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

NFP!05!

!

!

! 1,!2,!3!

!

NFP!03!

I!D!

NFP!03!

I!E!

I!B!

NFP!05!

II!B!

II!A! II!B!

NFP!04!

II!C!

II!C!

NFP!08!

II!D!

II!D!

NFP!09!

II!E!1! II!E!2!

II!E! II!F!

! !

!

NFP!06!

!

!

! 2,!3,!4!

!

NFP!06!

II!E!3!

II!G!

NFP!07!

II!E!4!

II!F!

NFP!06!

IV! IV! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

'

NFP!01!

I!D! II!A!

Note'

! ! 5!

NFP!15!

!

Original' code'

HI'19'

NFP'15'

Note'

tw!I!B!

II!A!

NFP!04!

8!

tw!I!B!

I!B!

NFP!02!

8!

tw!III!

III!A!

NFP!10!

5,!8!

tw!III!

III!B!

NFP!13!

6,!8!

tw!III!

III!C!

NFP!11!

8!

tw!VI!

V!B!

NFP!14!

7!

tw!VI!

V!C!

NFP!14!

7!

tw!VI!

VI!

NFP!15!

7!

V!A!

V!A!

NFP!14!

6!

V!B!

V!B!

NFP!14!

V!C!

V!C!

NFP!14!

V!D!

V!C!

NFP!14!

!

V!E!

V!C!

NFP!14!

! 1,!4!

Original' code'

HI'19'

NFP'15'

Note'

tw!I!B!

I!B!

NFP!02!

8!

tw!VI!

V!B!

NFP!14!

7!

tw!VI!

V!C!

NFP!14!

7!

tw!VI!

VI!

NFP!15!

7!

tw!VI!A!

V!B!

NFP!14!

tw!VI!A!

V!C!

NFP!14!

tw!VI!B!

V!C!

NFP!14!

tw!VI!B!

V!B!

NFP!14!

!

V!A!

V!A!

NFP!14!

! 6!

V!B!

V!B!

NFP!14!

V!C!

V!C!

NFP!14!

V!D!

V!C!

NFP!14!

!

V!E!

V!C!

NFP!14!

! 1,!4!

VI!C!

VI!

NFP!15!

VI!D!

VI!

NFP!15!

VI!E!

VI!

NFP!15!

!

!

Notes:!see!table14! Table'13:'Classification'1880' Original' code'

HI'19'

NFP'15'

I!A!

I!A!

NFP!01!

I!C!

I!C!

NFP!03!

I!D! I!E!

I!D! I!D!

Note' '

NFP!03! NFP!03!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

II!A!

II!A!

NFP!04!

II!B!

II!B!

NFP!05!

!

!

II!C!

II!C!

NFP!08!

! 1,!2,!3!

!

II!D!

II!D!

NFP!09!

II!E!

II!E!

NFP!06!

II!F!

II!F!

! !

!

NFP!06!

!

! ! !

II!G!

II!G!

NFP!07!

! 2,!3,!4!

III!A!

III!A!

NFP!10!

5,!8!

III!B!

III!B!

NFP!13!

6,!8!

III!C! IV!

III!C! IV!

tw!I!B! II!A! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

NFP!11!

8!

NFP!15!

5!

NFP!04!

8!

! ! ! ! !

Notes:!see!table14!

! ! !

!

!

'

! !

!

! ! !

169!

170!


Table'14:'Classification'VZ'1888,'HI'19,'NFP'15' Original' code' A!a!01! A!a!02! A!a!03! A!a!04! A!a!05! A!a!06! A!b!08! A!c!09! A!c!10! A!c!11! B!a!12! B!a!13! B!a!15! B!a!16! B!a!17! B!a!18! B!a!19! B!a!20! B!a!21! B!a!22! B!a!23! B!a!24! B!b!25! B!b!26! B!b!27! B!b!29! B!b!30! B!b!31! B!b!32! B!b!33! B!b!34! B!b!35! B!b!36! B!c!37! B!c!38! B!c!39! B!c!40! B!c!41! B!c!43! B!c!45! B!c!46! B!c!47! B!c!48! B!c!49! B!c!50! B!c!51! B!c!52! B!c!53! B!c!54! B!c!56! B!c!57! B!c!58! B!c!59! B!c!60! B!c!61! B!c!62! B!d!63! B!d!64!

HI'19' I!A! I!A! I!A! I!A! I!A! I!A! I!B! I!C! I!D! I!D! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!A! II!B! II!B! II!B! II!B! II!B! II!B! II!B! II!C! II!B! II!B! II!B! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!E! II!E!

NFP'15' NFP!01! NFP!01! NFP!01! NFP!01! NFP!01! NFP!01! NFP!02! NFP!03! NFP!03! NFP!03! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!04! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!08! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!05! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!06! NFP!06!

Notes' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Original'code' B!e!83! B!e!84! B!e!86! B!f!089! B!f!090! B!f!091! B!f!092! B!f!093! B!f!094! B!f!095! B!f!096! B!f!097! B!f!098! B!f!099! B!f!100! B!f!101! B!f!102! B!g!105! B!g!106! B!g!107! B!g!108! B!g!109! B!g!110! C!!111! C!!113! C!!114! D!!115! D!!116! D!!117! D!!118! D!!119! D!!120! D!!121! E!a!122! E!a!123! E!a!125! E!a!126! E!b!129! E!b!130! E!b!131! E!c!132! E!c!133! E!c!134! E!c!135! E!e!139! F!!141! F!!142! rec_Hausdienst! tw!127;!tw!128! tw!A!b!07! tw!B!a!14! tw!B!b!28! tw!B!b!28! tw!B!c!44! tw!B!c!55! tw!B!c!56! tw!B!d!71! tw!B!d!71!

HI'19' II!F! II!F! II!F! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!C! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!G! II!D! II!D! II!D! II!D! II!D! II!D! III!A! III!C! III!C! IV! IV! IV! IV! IV! IV! IV! V!A! V!A! V!A! V!A! V!B! V!B! V!B! V!C! V!A! V!C! V!C! V!C! VI! VI! VI! V!B! I!B! II!A! II!E! II!B! II!C! II!C! II!C! II!E! II!F!

NFP'15' NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!08! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!09! NFP!09! NFP!09! NFP!09! NFP!09! NFP!09! NFP!10! NFP!11! NFP!11! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!15! NFP!14! NFP!02! NFP!04! NFP!06! NFP!05! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!08! NFP!06! NFP!06!

Notes' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !3! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 6! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !


B!d!65!

II!F!

NFP!06! !

B!d!66! B!d!67! B!d!68! B!d!69! B!d!70! B!d!74! B!d!75! B!d!76! B!d!77! B!d!78! B!e!79! B!e!80! B!e!81! B!e!82!

II!E! II!E! II!E! II!F! II!F! II!F! II!B! II!E! II!E! II!B! II!C! II!F! II!F! II!F!

! ! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!05! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!05! NFP!08! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! !

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

tw!B!d!72,!tw!B!d! 73! tw!B!d!72,!tw!B!d! 73! tw!B!e!85! tw!B!e!87! tw!B!e!88! tw!B!f!103! tw!B!f!104! tw!C!!112! tw!E!a!124! tw!E!b!128! tw!E!d!136! tw!E!e!137! tw!E!e!138! tw!E!e!140! tw42! tw!A!b!07!

II!E!

NFP!06!

II!F! II!F! II!F! II!F! II!G! II!G! III!B! V!A! V!B! V!C! V!C! V!C! V!C! II!C! I!B!

NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!06! NFP!07! NFP!07! NFP!13! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!14! NFP!08! NFP!02!

171!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Notes!classification!1860G1888:! 1) Until!1870!“Ingenieure,!Architekten!und!Geometer”!are!part!of!V!E!“Künste”.!In!1880!they!become!part!of!the! construction!industry!II!C.!From!the!more!detailed!cantonal!data!we!know!that!there!are!1550!persons!in! this!industry!in!1870.!This!is!negligible!compared!to!the!size!of!II!C!(107’598),!but!it!represents!22%!of!V!E.! 2) Until!1870!“Musikalische!Instrumentenmacher”!are!part!of!II!C.!In!1880!they!become!part!of!II!G! “MaschinenG!und!Werkzeugfabrikation”.!From!the!more!detailed!cantonal!data!we!know!that!there!are!1859! persons!in!this!industry!in!1880.!This!is!negligible!compared!to!the!size!of!both!II!C!(117’072)!and!II!G! (80’422).! 3) The!industry!B!f!95!of!the!1888!census!groups!workers!out!of!four!different!industries!of!the!1880!census.! One!of!the!four!industries!“Andere!Metallverarbeitung”!was!part!of!II!G,!while!the!others!were!part!of!II!C.!In! 1880!“Andere!Metallverarbeitung”!counts!589!workers,!i.e.!0.5%!of!II!C!and!0.7%!of!II!G.!The!other!three! industries!count!2786!workers.!I!counted!the!whole!B!f!95!to!II!C.! 4) Until!1870!“Optiker!und!physikalische!Instrumentenmacher”!are!part!of!V!E!“Künste”.!In!1880!they!become! part!of!the!machine!industry!II!G.!From!the!more!detailed!cantonal!data!we!know!that!there!are!68!persons! in!this!industry!in!1870.!This!is!negligible!compared!to!the!size!of!both!II!G!(65’622)!and!V!E!(6990).! 5) Part!of!1880s!IV!D!“Spedition,!FuhrG!und!Botenwesen”!goes!into!1888s!111!“Handel”,!namely!155!“KornG!und! Kaufhausarbeiter”.!This!number!is!negligible!compared!to!the!size!of!the!both!III!(92’293)!and!IV!(35’478).! 6) The!industry!E!a!126!“Besorgung!von!Rechtsgeschäften!für!Private”!merges!workers!that!were!counted!in!III! B!and!workers!that!were!counted!in!V!A!until!1880.!In!its!harmonized!data!set!for!1880!and!1888!(table!8!of! the!1888!census)!the!statistical!office!has!transferred!249!workers.!This!is!less!than!10%!of!the!industry!E!a! 126!and!is!negligible!compared!to!both!III!B!(6429)!and!V!A!(13943).! 7) The!industry!VI!“Persönliche!Dienste”!of!1860!includes!servants!and!many!other!services.!In!1870,!industry! VI!containes!only!“Taglöhner,!Krankenwärter,!Dienstboten”!while!the!servants!(Hausgesinde)!are!counted! separately.!In!1880!industry!VI!is!detailed!into!“Bedienstete!von!Kranken!und!Erziehungsanstalten”,! “Krankenwärter,!Diakonissinnen,!Pflegerinnen”,!“Dienstmänner,!Holzhacker”,!“Taglöhner”,!Dienstboten! ausser!Dienst”.!In!1888,!“Krankenwärter”!and!“Bedienstete!von!Krankenanstalten”!are!included!in!health! care!and!“Bedienstete!von!Erziehungsanstalten”!are!included!in!the!education!sector.!It!is!difficult!to! separate!them!in!1888.!Hence!I!chose!to!construct!these!backward!by!reproducing!for!each!district,!the!same! relative!industry!weight!as!in!1888!! 8) In!1860G1880,!sector!III!includes!commerce,!restaurants,!banks,!insurances,!and!intermediation!services.! However,!subdivisions!proposed!in!1860!are!hard!to!match!with!those!of!the!following!censuses.!And!in! 1870!commerce,!banks!and!insurances!are!lumped!together.!One!could!simply!count!sector!III!as!an! aggregate,!but!this!means!lumping!together!industries!with!very!different!levels!of!value!added!per!worker.!I! decided!to!reconstruct!the!1880!subdivisions!backward!by!reproducing!the!relative!subGindustry!weight!of! 1880.!! 9) Until!1880,!Käserei,!Milchsiederei!und!Milchpulver!was!counted!as!part!of!Landwirtschaft.!Conceptually!and! for!the!harmonization!with!the!data!on!value!added!by!sector!of!the!Nationalfondsprojekt!Geldmenge!und! Wirtschaftswachtum!it!was!preferable!to!separate!these!activities!and!count!them!to!the!food!industry.! DistrictGlevel!data!on!Käserei,!Milchsiederei!und!Milchpulver!was!provided!for!the!first!time!in!1888.!For! 1870!and!1880!data!is!available!at!the!cantonal!level!but!not!for!districts.!I!applied!the!intraGcantonal!spatial! distribution!of!1888!to!the!cantonal!levels!of!1870!and!1880.!In!1860,!no!data!on!this!industry!is!available.!I! assumed!that!in!each!district!the!share!of!Käserei,!Milchsiederei!und!Milchpulver!within!Landwirtschaft! remained!stable!between!1860!and!1870.! ! '

172!


Table'15:'Classification'VZ'1888' Original'code' A!a!01! A!a!02! A!a!03! A!a!04! A!a!05! A!a!06! tw!A!b!07! A!b!08! A!c!09! A!c!10! A!c!11! B!a!12! B!a!13! B!a!15! B!a!16! B!a!17! B!a!18! B!a!19! B!a!20! B!a!21! B!a!22! B!a!23! B!a!24! B!b!25! B!b!26! B!b!27! B!b!29! B!b!30! B!b!31! B!b!32! B!b!33! B!b!34! B!b!35! B!b!36! B!c!37! B!c!38! B!c!39! B!c!40! B!c!41! B!c!43! B!c!45! B!c!46! B!c!47! B!c!48! B!c!49! B!c!50! B!c!51! B!c!52! B!c!53! B!c!54! B!c!56! B!c!57! B!c!58! B!c!59! B!c!60! B!c!61! B!c!62! B!d!63! B!d!64!

HI'54' I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! A!04! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!02! B!02! B!01! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!06! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! E!03! M!02! D!01! X!03! X!01! O!01! I!03! I!02! I!02! I!01! O!01! O!02! X!01! H!01! O!01! O!01! H!01! H!02! H!02! K!01! O!03! O!02! H!02! F!02! N!01! E!01! H!02! N!01! C!01! C!01!

RD'41' R!31! R!31! R!31! R!31! R!31! R!31! R!01! R!02! R!02! R!02! R!02! R!03! R!03! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!04! R!05! R!06! R!07! R!07! R!08! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!16! R!21! R!29! R!17! R!41! R!42! R!32! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!32! R!32! R!42! R!24! R!32! R!32! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!27! R!27! R!32! R!24! R!22! R!24! R!20! R!24! R!24! R!10! R!10!

note'

!!

! ! ! ! ! !1),!9)!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Original'code' B!f!095! B!f!096! B!f!097! B!f!098! B!f!099! B!f!100! B!f!101! B!f!102! B!g!105! B!g!106! B!g!107! B!g!108! B!g!109! B!g!110! C!!111! C!!113! C!!114! D!!115! D!!116! D!!117! D!!118! D!!119! D!!120! D!!121! E!a!122! E!a!123! E!a!125! E!a!126! E!b!129! E!b!130! E!b!131! E!c!132! E!c!133! E!c!134! E!c!135! E!e!139! F!!141! F!!142! rec_Hausdienst! tw!127;!tw!128! tw!127;!tw!128! tw!B!a!14! tw!B!a!14! tw!B!b!28! tw!B!b!28! tw!B!c!44! tw!B!c!44! tw!B!c!55! tw!B!c!56! tw!B!d!71! tw!B!d!71! tw!B!d!72,!tw!B!d!73! tw!B!d!72,!tw!B!d!73! tw!B!e!85! tw!B!e!85! tw!B!e!87! tw!B!e!87! tw!B!e!88! tw!B!e!88!

HI'54' K!01! M!02! L!01! L!01! H!02! K!01! M!01! L!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! F!02! Q!01! R!01! R!01! O!01! O!01! S!01! S!03! S!01! S!02! S!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! Q!04! U!01! Q!01! U!01! W!01! W!01! V!01! V!01! W!02! X!01! X!01! X!01! U!01! W!01! B!04! B!04! C!04! D!02! O!03! O!01! I!03! O!02! C!01! C!02! C!01! C!02! J!01! K!01! J!01! K!01! J!01! L!01!

RD'41' R!27! R!29! R!28! R!28! R!24! R!27! R!29! R!28! R!23! R!23! R!23! R!23! R!23! R!22! R!34! R!37! R!37! R!32! R!32! R!38! R!39! R!38! R!38! R!38! R!40! R!40! R!40! R!46! R!41! R!34! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!41! R!41! R!03! R!04! R!15! R!18! R!27! R!32! R!25! R!32! R!12! R!14! R!15! R!14! R!26! R!27! R!26! R!27! R!26! R!28!

note' ! ! 7)! ! ! 18)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 19)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !2)! 2),! 14),!15)! 14),!15)! ! ! ! ! ! ! 6)! 6)! 18)! 18)! 4)! 4)!


B!d!65! B!d!66! B!d!67! B!d!68! B!d!69! B!d!70! B!d!74! B!d!75! B!d!76! B!d!77! B!d!78! B!e!79! B!e!80! B!e!81! B!e!82! B!e!83! B!e!84! B!e!86! B!f!089! B!f!090! B!f!091! B!f!092! B!f!093! B!f!094! tw!A!b!07! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

C!02! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!02! C!01! C!04! C!04! C!03! C!04! I!03! F!01! E!01! J!01! J!01! P!01! J!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! A!02!

R!14! R!14! R!09! R!09! R!14! R!14! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!13! R!15! R!25! R!22! R!20! R!26! R!26! R!33! R!26! R!27! R!27! R!27! R!27! R!27! R!27! R!02!

Notes:!see!end!of!table!12.! ! ! !

!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! 1)!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! !

tw!B!f!103! tw!B!f!103! tw!B!f!103! tw!B!f!104! tw!B!f!104! tw!C!!112! tw!C!!112! tw!C!!112! tw!C!!112! tw!C!!112! tw!E!a!124! tw!E!a!124! tw!E!b!128! tw!E!d!136! tw!E!d!136! tw!E!d!136! tw!E!e!137! tw!E!e!137! tw!E!e!138! tw!E!e!138! tw!E!e!140! tw!E!e!140! tw42! tw42! tw!A!b!07!

O!03! L!01! P!01! L!01! N!02! Q!02! Q!03! Q!04! S!01! S!01! T!01! U!01! L!01! Q!04! Q!04! W!02! H!02! I!01! I!03! W!02! M!02! W!02! O!02! O!01! I!01!


173!

5)! 5)! 5)! ! ! 11)! 10),!11)! 10)! 10)! 10)! ! !8)! 12)! 12)! 12)! 13)! 13)! 3)! 3)! ! ! !!! 9)!

174!


Table'16:'Classification'VZ'1900' Original' code' A!a!01! A!a!02! A!a!03! A!a!04! A!a!05! A!a!06! A!a!07! A!a!08! A!a!09! A!a!10! A!b!11! A!b!12! A!b!13! A!b!14! A!b!15! A!c!16! A!c!17! A!c!18! B!a!19! B!a!20! B!a!21! B!a!22! B!a!23! B!a!24! B!a!25! B!a!26! B!a!27! B!a!28! B!a!29! B!a!30! B!a!31! B!a!32! B!a!33! B!a!34! B!a!35! B!a!36! B!a!37! B!a!38! B!a!39! B!a!40! B!a!41! B!b!42! B!b!43! B!b!44! B!b!45! B!b!46! B!b!47! B!b!48! B!b!49! B!b!50! B!b!51! B!b!52! B!b!53! B!b!54! B!b!55! B!b!56! B!b!57! B!b!58! B!b!59! B!c!060! B!c!061! B!c!062!

HI'54' I!01! I!01! I!01! B!05! B!04! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! A!01! A!01! A!02! A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! A!04! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!02! B!02! B!04! B!01! B!01! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!04! B!04! B!06! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!02! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! E!03! D!01! X!03! X!01! X!01! O!01! O!01! O!01!

RD'41' R!31! R!31! R!31! R!07! R!07! R!31! R!31! R!31! R!31! R!31! R!01! R!01! R!02! R!01! R!02! R!02! R!02! R!02! R!03! R!03! R!03! R!04! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!04! R!07! R!05! R!05! R!06! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!07! R!08! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!18! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!17! R!16! R!21! R!17! R!41! R!42! R!42! R!32! R!32! R!32!

note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 19)! !

!! Original'code' B!f!122! ! B!f!123! ! B!f!124! ! B!f!125! ! B!f!126! ! B!f!127! ! tw!B!f!128,!tw!B!f!131! ! B!f!129! ! B!f!130! ! B!f!132! ! B!f!133! ! B!f!134! ! B!f!135! ! B!f!136! ! B!f!137! ! B!f!138! ! B!f!139! ! B!g!141! ! B!g!142! ! B!g!143! ! B!g!144! ! B!g!145! ! B!g!146! ! B!g!147! ! B!g!148! ! B!g!149! ! B!g!150! ! B!g!151! ! B!g!152! ! B!g!153! ! B!g!154! ! B!g!155! ! B!g!156! ! B!g!157! ! B!g!158! ! B!g!159! ! B!g!160! ! B!g!161! ! B!g!162! ! B!g!163! ! B!g!165! ! B!h!167! ! B!h!168! ! B!h!169! ! B!h!170! ! B!h!171! ! B!h!172! ! B!h!173! ! C!!174! ! C!!175! ! C!!177! ! C!!178! ! C!!179! ! D!!180! ! D!!181! ! D!!182! ! D!!183! ! D!!184! ! D!!185! ! D!!186! ! D!!187! ! E!a!188! !

HI'54' I!03! I!03! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! P!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! K!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! M!02! M!02! L!01! L!01! L!01! H!02! H!02! K!01! M!01! L!01! N!02! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! F!02! Q!01! Q!01! Q!02! R!01! R!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!03! S!01! S!02! S!02! S!01! T!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! 6)! ! ! ! ! 18)! 18)! 18)! ! ! 18)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 7)! ! ! ! ! 18)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !


B!c!063! I!03! B!c!064! I!02! B!c!065! I!02! B!c!066! I!02! B!c!067! I!02! B!c!068! I!01! B!c!069! I!01! B!c!070! O!01! B!c!071! O!01! B!c!072! O!02! B!c!073! O!02! B!c!075! O!02! B!c!076! X!01! B!c!077! H!01! B!c!078! O!01! B!c!079! O!01! B!c!080! H!01! B!c!081! H!01! B!c!082! H!02! B!c!083! H!02! B!c!084! H!02! B!c!085! K!01! B!c!086! O!03! B!c!087! I!03! B!c!088! O!02! B!c!089! H!02! B!c!090! N!01! B!c!091! E!01! B!c!092! H!02! B!c!093! N!01! B!c!094! N!01! B!d!095! C!01! B!d!096! C!01! B!d!097! C!01! B!d!098! C!02! B!d!099! C!02! B!d!100! C!01! B!d!101! C!01! B!d!102! C!01! B!d!103! C!02! B!d!104! C!02! B!d!106! C!01! B!d!109! C!01! B!d!110! C!01! B!d!111! C!04! B!d!112! C!01! B!d!113! C!04! B!d!114! C!04! B!d!115! C!04! B!d!116! C!03! B!d!117! C!04! B!e!118! F!01! B!e!119! F!02! B!e!120! E!01! B!e!121! E!02! !! !! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!32! R!32! R!32! R!32! R!32! R!42! R!24! R!32! R!32! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!27! R!27! R!25! R!32! R!24! R!24! R!20! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!10! R!10! R!10! R!14! R!14! R!11! R!09! R!09! R!14! R!14! R!15! R!15! R!09! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!13! R!15! R!22! R!22! R!20! R!21! !!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!


!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

E!a!189! E!a!190! E!a!191! E!a!192! E!b!193! E!b!194! E!b!195! E!c!197! E!c!199! E!c!200! E!c!201! E!c!202! E!c!203! E!c!204! E!d!205! E!d!206! E!e!207! E!e!208! E!e!209! E!e!210! E!f!212! E!g!214! E!g!215! E!g!216! E!g!217! E!g!218! E!g!219! F!!220! F!!221! tw!E!d!197,!tw!E!d!198! tw!176! tw!176! tw!B!c!074! tw!B!c!074! tw!B!d!105! tw!B!d!105! tw!B!d!107,!tw!B!d!108! tw!B!d!107,!tw!B!d!108! tw!B!f!128;!tw!B!f!131! tw!B!f!140! tw!B!f!140! tw!B!g!164! tw!B!g!164! tw!B!g!164! tw!B!g!166! tw!B!g!166! tw!C!!176! tw!C!!176! tw!E!b!196! tw!E!b!196! tw!E!d!197,!tw!E!d!198! tw!E!f!211! tw!E!f!211! tw!E!g!213! tw!E!g!213! rec!Hausdienst!

T!01! T!01! U!01! T!01! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! U!01! U!01! U!01! U!01! L!01! Q!01! U!01! V!01! V!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! Q!04! W!02! I!03! M!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! X!01! X!01! W!01! Q!03! Q!04! O!03! O!01! C!01! C!02! C!01! C!02! K!01! J!01! L!01! O!03! L!01! P!01! L!01! N!02! S!01! S!01! Q!04! W!01! U!01! Q!04! W!02! H!02! I!01! X!01!

R!40! R!40! R!41! R!40! R!46! R!46! R!46! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!28! R!34! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!25! R!29! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!42! R!42! R!41! R!35! R!46! R!27! R!32! R!12! R!14! R!15! R!14! R!27! R!26! R!28! R!27! R!28! R!33! R!28! R!24! R!38! R!38! R!46! R!41! R!41! R!46! R!41! R!24! R!25! R!42!

175!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 10)! 10)! 14),!15)! 14),!15)! ! ! ! ! 6)! 4)! 4)! 5)! 5)! 5)! ! ! 10)! 10)! 25)! 25)! !12)! 12)! 13)! 13)! !!

176!


Table'17:'Classification'VZ'1910' Original' code' A!a!01! A!a!02! A!a!03! A!a!04! A!a!05! A!a!06! A!a!07! A!a!08! A!a!09! A!a!10! A!b!11! A!b!12! A!b!13! A!b!14! A!b!15! A!c!16! A!c!17! A!c!18! B!a!19! B!a!20! B!a!21! B!a!22! B!a!23! B!a!24! B!a!25! B!a!26! B!a!27! B!a!28! B!a!29! B!a!30! B!a!31! B!a!32! B!a!33! B!a!34! B!a!35! B!a!36! B!a!37! B!a!38! B!a!39! B!a!40! B!a!41! B!a!42! B!a!43! B!b!44! B!b!45! B!b!46! B!b!47! B!b!48! B!b!49! B!b!50! B!b!51! B!b!52! B!b!53! B!b!54! B!b!55! B!b!56! B!b!57! B!b!58! B!b!59! B!b!60! B!b!61! B!b!62!

HI'54' I!01! I!01! I!01! B!05! B!04! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! A!01! A!01! A!01! A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! A!04! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!02! B!02! B!04! B!01! B!01! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!04! B!04! B!06! B!04! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!02! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! E!03! D!01! X!03! X!01! X!01! X!01!


notes' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 16)! ! ! ! ! !

!! Original'code' B!e!123! ! B!e!124! ! B!e!125! ! B!e!126! ! B!e!126!b! ! B!e!127! ! B!e!128! ! B!f!130! ! B!f!132! ! B!f!133! ! B!f!134! ! B!f!135! ! B!f!136! ! B!f!137! ! B!f!138! ! B!f!140! ! B!f!142! ! B!g!143! ! B!g!144! ! B!g!145! ! B!g!146! ! B!g!147! ! B!g!148! ! B!g!149! ! B!g!150! ! B!g!151! ! B!g!152! ! B!g!153! ! B!g!154! ! B!g!155! ! B!g!156! ! B!g!157! ! B!g!158! ! B!g!160! ! B!g!161! ! B!g!162! ! B!g!163! ! B!g!164! ! B!g!166! ! B!g!167! ! B!h!168! ! B!h!169! ! B!h!170! ! B!h!171! ! B!h!172! ! C!a!173! ! C!a!174! ! C!a!175! ! C!a!176! ! C!a!177! ! C!a!178! ! C!a!179! ! C!a!180! ! C!a!181! ! C!b!182! ! C!b!183! ! C!b!184! ! D!a!185! ! D!a!186! ! D!a!187! ! D!a!188! ! D!a!189! !

HI'54' G!01! G!01! F!02! E!01! J!01! E!01! E!02! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! P!01! L!01! J!01! C!01! K!01! K!01! O!03! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! M!02! L!01! L!01! M!01! L!01! H!02! N!02! P!01! L!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!04! Q!03! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!02! R!01! R!01! R!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!03!


note' ! ! ! 17)! 17)! ! 16)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 7)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !


B!c!63! I!01! B!c!64! I!01! B!c!65! I!02! B!c!66! I!02! B!c!67! I!03! B!c!68! I!03! B!c!69! I!03! B!c!70! I!03! B!c!71! O!01! B!c!72! O!01! B!c!73! O!01! B!c!74! O!01! B!c!75! O!01! B!c!76! O!02! B!c!77! O!02! B!c!78! H!01! B!c!79! O!02! B!c!80! I!02! B!c!81! O!03! B!c!82! O!03! B!c!83! O!02! B!c!84! X!01! B!c!85! H!01! B!c!86! O!01! B!c!87! H!02! B!c!88! O!01! B!c!89! H!01! B!c!90! H!02! B!c!91! H!02! B!c!92! H!02! B!c!93! H!02! B!c!94! H!02! B!c!95! N!01! B!c!96! N!01! B!c!97! N!01! B!d!098! C!01! B!d!099! C!01! B!d!100! C!01! B!d!101! C!02! B!d!102! C!02! B!d!103! C!01! B!d!104! C!01! B!d!105! C!02! B!d!106! C!02! B!d!108! C!01! B!d!111! C!04! B!d!112! C!04! B!d!113! C!03! B!d!114! C!04! B!d!115! C!04! B!d!116! C!01! B!d!117! C!01! B!d!119! C!04! B!d!120! C!01! B!e!121! F!01! B!e!122! F!02! Tw!=!“parts!of”!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 14),!15)! 19)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 15)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!


!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

D!a!190! D!b!191! D!b!192! D!b!193! D!b!194! D!b!195! E!a!196! E!a!197! E!a!198! E!a!199! E!b!200! E!b!201! E!b!202! E!c!204! E!c!205! E!c!206!a! E!c!206!b! E!c!207! E!c!208! E!c!209! E!c!210! E!c!211! E!c!212! E!d!213! E!d!214! E!e!215! E!e!216! E!e!217! E!f!218! E!f!219! E!f!220! E!f!221! E!g!222! E!g!223! E!g!224! E!g!225! E!g!226! E!g!227! E!g!228! E!g!229! F!!230! F!!231! F!!232! rec!Hausdienst! tw!B!d!107,!tw!B!d!118! tw!B!d!107,!tw!B!d!118! tw!B!d!109;!tw!B!d!110! tw!B!d!109;!tw!B!d!110! tw!B!g!165! tw!E!b!203! tw129;tw131! tw129;tw131! tw139;tw141;tw159! tw139;tw141;tw159! tw165! tw203!

S!02! S!02! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! U!01! U!01! W!01! U!01! W!02! U!01! U!01! U!01! Q!01! U!01! V!01! V!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! W!02! Q!04! V!01! Q!04! I!01! H!02! W!02! I!03! M!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! Q!04! X!01! X!01! X!01! C!01! C!02! C!01! C!02! N!02! Q!04! J!01! K!01! J!01! K!01! L!01! W!01!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 25)! 6)! 6)! 18)! 18)! ! 25)!

177!

178!


Table'18:'Classification'VZ'1920' Original' code' A!a!01! A!a!02! A!a!03! A!a!04! A!a!05! A!a!06! A!a!07! A!a!08! A!a!09! A!a!10! A!b!11! A!b!12! A!b!13! A!b!14! A!b!15! A!c!16! A!c!17! A!c!18! B!a!19! B!a!20! B!a!21! B!a!22! B!a!23! B!a!24! B!a!25! B!a!26! B!a!27! B!a!28! B!a!29! B!a!30! B!a!31! B!a!32! B!a!33! B!a!34! B!a!35! B!a!36! B!a!37! B!a!38! B!a!39! B!a!40! B!b!41! B!b!42! B!b!43! B!b!44! B!b!45! B!b!46! B!b!47! B!b!48! B!b!49! B!b!50! B!b!51! B!b!52! B!b!53! B!b!55! B!b!56! B!b!57! B!b!58! B!c!59! B!c!60! B!c!61! B!c!62! B!c!63!

HI'54' I!01! I!01! I!01! B!05! B!04! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! A!01! A!01! A!01! A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! A!04! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!02! B!02! B!04! B!01! B!01! B!01! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!04! B!04! B!06! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!02! D!01! X!03! X!01! X!01! I!01! I!02! I!02! I!03! I!03!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

!! Original'code' B!e!129! ! B!e!130! ! B!e!131! ! B!f!132! ! B!f!133! ! B!f!134! ! B!f!135! ! B!f!136! ! B!f!137! ! B!f!138! ! B!f!139! ! B!f!140! ! B!f!141! ! B!f!142! ! tw!B!f!143! ! B!f!144! ! B!f!145! ! B!f!146! ! B!g!147! ! B!g!148! ! B!g!149! ! B!g!150! ! B!g!151! ! B!g!152! ! B!g!153! ! B!g!154! ! B!g!155! ! B!g!156! ! B!g!157! ! B!g!158! ! B!g!159! ! B!g!160! ! B!g!161! ! B!g!162! ! B!g!163! ! B!g!164! ! B!g!165! ! B!g!166! ! B!g!167! ! B!g!168! ! B!g!169! ! B!g!170! ! B!g!171! ! B!g!172! ! B!g!173! ! B!g!174! ! B!g!175! ! B!g!176! ! B!g!177! ! B!g!179! ! B!g!180! ! B!h!181! ! B!h!182! ! B!h!183! ! B!i!184! ! B!i!185! ! B!i!186! ! B!i!187! ! C!a!188! ! C!a!189! ! C!a!190! ! C!a!191! !

HI'54' E!01! E!01! E!02! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! C!01! J!01! J!01! L!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! O!03! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! O!03! M!02! L!01! L!01! L!01! H!02! K!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! N!02! N!02! M!02! M!01! P!01! P!01! P!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!04! Q!03!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 18)! ! 20)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 7)! 19)! ! ! 18)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 14)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !


B!c!64! I!03! R!25! B!c!65! I!03! R!25! ! B!c!66! I!01! R!31! ! B!c!67! I!03! R!25! ! B!c!68! O!01! R!32! ! B!c!69! O!01! R!32! ! 14)! B!c!70! O!01! R!32! 19)! B!c!71! O!01! R!32! B!c!72! O!01! R!32! ! B!c!73! I!02! R!25! ! B!c!74! O!02! R!32! ! B!c!75! O!02! R!32! ! B!c!76! N!01! R!24! ! B!c!77! H!01! R!24! ! B!c!78! O!02! R!32! ! B!c!79! O!02! R!32! ! B!c!80! X!01! R!42! ! B!c!81! X!01! R!42! ! B!c!82! H!01! R!24! ! B!c!83! O!01! R!32! ! B!c!84! O!01! R!32! ! B!c!85! H!01! R!24! ! B!c!86! H!02! R!24! ! B!c!87! H!02! R!24! ! B!c!88! H!02! R!24! ! B!c!89! H!02! R!24! ! B!c!90! H!02! R!24! ! B!c!91! H!02! R!24! ! B!c!92! H!02! R!24! ! B!c!93! N!01! R!24! ! B!c!94! H!01! R!24! ! B!d!095! C!01! R!10! ! B!d!096! C!01! R!10! ! B!d!097! C!01! R!10! ! B!d!098! C!01! R!10! ! B!d!099! C!02! R!14! ! B!d!100! C!02! R!14! ! B!d!101! C!01! R!09! ! B!d!102! C!01! R!09! ! B!d!103! C!01! R!09! ! B!d!104! C!02! R!14! ! B!d!105! C!02! R!14! ! B!d!106! C!01! R!12! ! B!d!107! C!01! R!12! ! B!d!108! C!01! R!12! ! B!d!109! C!02! R!14! ! B!d!110! C!01! R!15! ! B!d!111! C!01! R!15! ! B!d!112! C!01! R!15! ! B!d!113! C!01! R!15! ! B!d!114! C!02! R!14! ! B!d!115! C!03! R!13! ! B!d!116! C!04! R!15! ! B!d!117! C!04! R!15! ! B!d!118! C!04! R!15! ! B!d!119! C!04! R!15! ! B!d!120! C!01! R!09! ! B!d!121! C!01! R!15! ! B!d!122! C!04! R!15! ! B!d!123! C!01! R!15! ! B!e!124! F!01! R!22! ! B!e!125! F!02! R!22! ! B!e!126! G!01! R!23! ! B!e!127! G!01! R!23! ! B!e!128! F!02! R!22! !!! Tw!=!“parts!of”.!Notes:!see!end!of!table!12.!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

C!a!192! C!a!193! C!a!194! C!a!195! C!a!196! C!b!197! C!b!198! C!b!199! D!a!200! D!a!201! D!a!202! D!a!203! D!a!204! D!a!205! D!b!206! D!b!207! D!b!208! D!b!209! D!b!210! E!a!211! E!a!212! E!a!213! E!a!214! E!b!215! E!b!216! E!b!217! E!c!219! E!c!220! E!c!221! E!c!222! E!c!223! E!c!224! E!c!225! E!c!226! E!d!227! E!d!228! E!e!229! E!e!230! E!f!231! E!f!232! E!f!233! E!f!234! E!g!235! E!g!236! E!g!237! E!g!238! E!g!239! E!h!240! E!h!241!a! E!h!241!b! E!h!241!c! E!h!242! E!h!243! E!h!244! F!!245! F!!246! F!!247! rec!Hausdienst! tw!143! tw!178! tw!178! tw!218! tw!218! tw!B!b!54! tw!B!b!54!

Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!02! R!01! R!01! R!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!03! S!02! S!02! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! U!01! U!01! W!02! U!01! U!01! U!01! Q!01! U!01! V!01! V!01! W!01! W!01! W!02! Q!04! V!01! Q!04! I!01! W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! V!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! U!01! T!01! Q!04! X!01! X!01! X!01! J!01! L!01! N!02! Q!04! W!01! E!03! N!01!

R!46! R!46! R!46! R!46! R!36! R!37! R!37! R!37! R!38! R!38! R!38! R!38! R!39! R!38! R!38! R!38! R!38! R!38! R!38! R!40! R!40! R!40! R!40! R!46! R!46! R!46! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!34! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!46! R!25! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!40! R!46! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!26! R!28! R!24! R!46! R!41! R!21! R!24!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 20)! ! ! 25)! 25)! !!!

179!

180!


Table'19:'Classification'VZ'1930' Original' code' A!a!1! A!a!2! A!a!3! A!a!4! A!a!5! A!a!6! A!b!7! A!b!8! A!c!09! A!c!10! A!c!11! A!c!12! A!c!13! A!c!14! A!c!15! A!c!16! A!c!17! B!a!18! B!a!19! B!a!20! B!a!21! B!a!22! B!a!23! B!a!24! B!a!25! B!a!26! B!a!27! B!a!28! B!a!29! B!a!30! B!a!31! B!a!32! B!a!33! B!a!34! B!a!35! B!a!36! B!a!37! B!a!38! B!a!39! B!a!40! B!a!41! B!a!42! B!a!43! B!a!44! B!b!45! B!b!46! B!b!47! B!b!48! B!b!49! B!b!50! B!b!51! B!b!52! B!b!53! B!b!54! B!b!55! B!b!56! B!b!57! B!b!58! B!b!59! B!b!60! B!b!61! B!b!62!

HI'54' A!01! A!01! A!01! A!01! A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!02! B!02! B!02! B!02! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!01! B!01! B!01! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!04! B!04! B!06! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!02! D!02! E!03! D!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

!! Original'code' B!f!156! ! B!f!157! ! B!f!158! ! B!f!159! ! B!g!160! ! B!g!161! ! B!g!162! ! B!g!163! ! B!g!164! ! B!g!165! ! B!g!166! ! B!g!167! ! B!g!168! ! B!g!169! ! B!g!170! ! B!g!171! ! B!g!172! ! B!g!173! ! B!g!174! ! B!g!175! ! B!g!176! ! B!g!177! ! B!g!178! ! B!g!179! ! B!g!180! ! B!g!181! ! B!g!182! ! B!g!183! ! B!g!184! ! B!g!185! ! B!g!186! ! B!g!187! ! B!g!188! ! B!g!189! ! B!g!190! ! B!g!191! ! B!g!192! ! B!g!193! ! B!g!194! ! B!g!195! ! B!g!196! ! B!g!197! ! B!g!198! ! B!g!199! ! B!g!200! ! B!g!201! ! B!g!202! ! B!g!203! ! B!g!204! ! B!h!205! ! B!h!206! ! B!i!207! ! B!i!208! ! B!i!209! ! B!k!210! ! B!k!211! ! B!k!212! ! C!a!214! ! C!a!215! ! C!a!216! ! C!a!217! ! C!a!218! !

HI'54' J!01! J!01! J!01! J!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! O!03! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! O!03! M!02! K!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! H!02! K!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! N!02! N!02! N!02! L!01! L!01! N!02! M!01! M!02! P!01! P!01! P!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 7)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !


B!b!63! B!b!64! B!b!65! B!b!66! B!c!067! B!c!068! B!c!069! B!c!070! B!c!071! B!c!072! B!c!073! B!c!074! B!c!075! B!c!076! B!c!077! B!c!078! B!c!079! B!c!080! B!c!081! B!c!082! B!c!083! B!c!084! B!c!085! B!c!086! B!c!087! B!c!088! B!c!089! B!c!090! B!c!091! B!c!092! B!c!093! B!c!094! B!c!095! B!c!096! B!c!097! B!c!099! B!c!100! B!c!101! B!c!102! B!c!103! B!c!104! B!c!105! B!d!106! B!d!107! B!d!108! B!d!109! B!d!110! B!d!111! B!d!112! B!d!113! B!d!114! B!d!115! B!d!116! B!d!117! B!d!118! B!d!119! B!d!120! B!d!121! B!d!122! B!d!123! B!d!124! B!d!125! B!d!126! B!d!127! B!d!128! B!d!129!

X!01! X!01! X!03! X!01! I!01! I!02! I!02! I!02! I!03! I!03! I!03! I!03! I!01! I!01! I!03! I!02! O!01! O!01! O!01! O!02! O!02! H!01! O!02! X!01! O!02! O!02! N!01! N!01! D!01! H!01! H!01! O!01! O!01! H!01! H!02! H!02! H!02! H!02! H!02! N!03! H!02! N!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!03! C!04!

R!42! R!42! R!41! R!42! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!31! R!31! R!25! R!25! R!32! R!32! R!32! R!32! R!32! R!24! R!32! R!42! R!32! R!32! R!24! R!24! R!17! R!24! R!24! R!32! R!32! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!11! R!10! R!10! R!10! R!10! R!14! R!14! R!09! R!09! R!09! R!14! R!14! R!12! R!12! R!12! R!14! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!14! R!13! R!15!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

C!a!219! C!a!220! C!a!221! C!a!222! C!a!223! C!a!224! C!a!225! C!a!226! C!a!227! C!a!228! C!a!229! C!a!230! C!a!231! C!b!232! C!b!233! C!b!234! C!b!235! C!b!236! C!b!237! C!b!238! C!b!239! C!b!240! C!b!241! C!b!242! C!b!243! C!b!244! C!b!245! C!b!246! C!c!247! C!c!248! C!d!249! D!!250! D!!251! D!!252! D!!253! E!a!254! E!a!255! E!a!256! E!a!257! E!a!258! E!a!259! E!b!260! E!b!261! E!b!262! E!b!263! E!b!264! E!b!265! E!b!266! F!a!267! F!a!268! F!a!269! F!a!270! F!b!271! F!b!272! F!b!274! F!c!275! F!c!276! F!c!277! F!c!278! F!c!279! F!c!280! F!c!281! F!c!282! F!c!283! F!d!284! F!d!285!

Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!03! Q!03! Q!02! R!01! R!01! R!01! R!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!03! S!02! S!02! S!01! S!03! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! U!01! U!01! U!01! U!01! Q!01! U!01! U!01! W!02! W!02! V!01! V!01!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

181!

182!


B!d!130! C!04! B!d!131! C!04! B!d!132! C!04! B!d!133! C!04! B!d!134! C!04! B!d!135! C!01! B!d!136! C!01! B!d!137! C!01! B!e!138! F!01! B!e!139! F!02! B!e!140! G!01! B!e!141! G!01! B!e!142! F!02! B!e!143! E!02! B!e!144! E!01! B!e!145! E!01! B!f!146! J!01! B!f!147! J!01! B!f!148! J!01! B!f!149! J!01! B!f!150! J!01! B!f!151! J!01! B!f!152! J!01! B!f!153! J!01! B!f!154! J!01! B!f!155! J!01! !! !! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

R!15! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!15! R!09! R!15! R!15! R!22! R!22! R!23! R!23! R!22! R!21! R!20! R!20! R!26! R!26! R!26! R!26! R!26! R!26! R!26! R!26! R!26! R!26! !!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!


!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

F!d!286! F!d!287! F!e!288! F!e!289! F!f!290! F!f!291! F!f!292! F!g!293! F!g!294! F!g!295! G!!296! G!!297! G!!298! G!!299! K!a! K!b! K!c! K!d! K!e! K!f! K!g! tw!B!c!098! tw!B!c!098! tw213! tw213! tw273! tw273!

V!01! Q!04! W!01! W!01! W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! I!01! W!02! X!01! X!01! X!01! X!01! T!01! U!01! W!01! V!01! V!01! W!01! W!01! H!02! N!03! G!01! W!02! Q!04! W!01!

R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!25! R!41! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!40! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!24! R!24! R!23! R!41! R!46! R!41!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 22)! 22)! 21)! 21)! 24),!25)! 24),!25)!


Table'20:'Classification'VZ'1941' Original' code' A!1!01! A!1!02! A!1!03! A!1!04! A!2!05! A!2!06! B!1!07! B!1!08! B!1!09! B!1!10! B!1!11! B!1!12! B!2!13! B!2!14! B!2!15! B!2!16! B!2!17! B!2!18! B!2!19! C!01!20! C!01!21! C!01!22! C!01!23! C!01!24! C!01!25! C!01!26! C!01!27! C!01!28! C!01!29! C!01!30! C!01!31! C!01!32! C!01!33! C!01!34! C!01!35! C!01!36! C!01!37! C!02!38! C!02!39! C!02!40! C!02!41! C!02!42! C!03!43! C!03!44! C!04!45! C!04!46! C!04!47! C!04!48! C!04!49! C!04!50! C!04!51! C!04!52! C!04!53! C!04!54! C!04!55! C!04!56! C!04!57! C!04!58! C!04!59! C!04!60! C!05a!61! C!05a!62!

HI'54' A!01! A!01! A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!02! B!02! B!02! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!01! B!01! B!04! B!04! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!06! B!06! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!02! D!02! E!03! D!01! X!01! X!01! C!01! C!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

!! Original'code' C!12!141! ! C!13!142! ! C!13!143! ! C!13!144! ! C!13!145! ! C!13!146! ! C!14!147! ! C!14!148! ! C!15!149! ! C!15!150! ! C!15!151! ! C!15!152! ! C!15!153! ! C!15!154! ! C!15!155! ! C!15!156! ! C!15!157! ! C!15!158! ! C!16!159! ! C!16!160! ! C!16!161! ! C!16!162! ! C!16!163! ! C!16!164! ! C!16!165! ! C!16!166! ! C!16!167! ! C!16!168! ! C!16!169! ! C!16!170! ! C!17!171! ! C!17!172! ! C!17!173! ! C!18!174! ! C!18!175! ! C!18!176! ! C!18!177! ! C!18!178! ! C!18!179! ! C!18!180! ! C!18!181! ! C!18!182! ! C!18!183! ! C!19!184! ! C!19!185! ! C!19!186! ! C!19!187! ! D!1!188! ! D!1!189! ! D!1!190! ! D!1!191! ! D!1!192! ! D!1!193! ! D!1!194! ! D!1!195! ! D!1!196! ! D!1!197! ! D!1!198! ! D!1!199! ! D!1!200! ! D!1!201! ! D!1!202! !

HI'54' L!01! N!02! N!02! N!02! L!01! L!01! M!01! M!02! I!01! I!02! I!02! I!03! I!03! I!03! I!03! I!01! I!03! I!02! H!01! H!01! O!01! H!02! H!01! H!02! H!02! H!02! H!02! H!02! N!01! H!02! N!03! N!03! H!02! O!01! O!02! O!02! O!02! O!02! N!01! O!03! O!02! X!01! X!01! P!01! P!01! P!01! P!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

183!

184!


C!05b!63! C!05b!64! C!05b!65! C!05b!66! C!05b!67! C!05b!68! C!05c!69! C!05c!70! C!05c!71! C!05c!72! C!05c!73! C!05d!74! C!05d!75! C!05d!76! C!05d!77! C!05e!78! C!05e!79! C!05e!80! C!05e!81! C!05e!82! C!05f! C!05g! C!05h!83! C!05h!84! C!05h!85! C!05h!86! C!05h!87! C!05h!88! C!05h!89! C!05h!90! C!05h!91! C!06!92! C!06!93! C!06!94! C!06!95! C!07! C!08!96! C!08!97! C!08!98! C!09!099! C!09!100! C!09!101! C!09!102! C!10! C!11!103! C!11!104! C!11!105! C!11!106! C!11!107! C!11!108! C!11!109! C!11!110! C!11!111! C!11!112! C!11!113! C!11!114! C!11!115! C!11!116! C!11!117! C!11!118! C!11!119! C!11!120! C!11!121! C!11!122! C!11!123! C!11!124!

C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!02! C!03! D!01! C!04! C!04! C!04! C!04! C!01! C!04! C!04! C!04! C!04! F!01! F!02! F!02! G!01! E!02! E!01! E!01! E!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! J!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! O!03! O!03! O!03! O!03! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 21)! ! ! 7)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

D!1!203! D!1!204! D!1!205! D!1!206! D!1!207! D!2! D!3! D!4!208! D!4!209! D!4!210! D!4!211! D!4!212! D!4!213! D!4!214! D!4!215! D!4!216! D!4!217! D!4!218! D!4!219! D!4!220! D!4!221! E!!222! E!!223! E!!224! E!!225! E!!226! F!!227! F!!228! F!!229! F!!230! F!!231! F!!232! F!!233! F!!234! F!!235! F!!236! F!!237! F!!238! F!!239! G!1!240! G!1!241! G!1!242! G!1!243! G!2!244! G!2!245! G!3!246! G!3!247! G!3!248! G!3!249! G!3!250! G!3!251! G!3!252! G!3!253! G!3!254! G!3!255! G!4!256! G!4!257! G!4!258! G!4!259! G!4!260! G!4!261! G!4!264! G!5!265! G!5!266! G!6! G!7!267!

Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!03! Q!02! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! S!01! R!01! R!01! R!01! R!01! R!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!02! S!02! S!01! S!03! S!03! S!01! S!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! Q!04! Q!04! U!01! U!01! U!01! U!01! Q!01! U!01! U!01! W!02! W!02! X!03! V!01! V!01! W!02! V!01! Q!04! W!02! N!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! W!02!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !


C!11!125! M!02! C!11!126a! L!01! C!11!126b! L!01! C!11!126c! K!01! C!12!127! L!01! C!12!128! L!01! C!12!129! L!01! C!12!130! L!01! C!12!131! L!01! C!12!132! L!01! C!12!133! L!01! C!12!134! L!01! C!12!135! L!01! C!12!136! L!01! C!12!137! L!01! C!12!138! L!01! C!12!139! L!01! C!12!140! L!01! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

R!29! R!28! R!28! R!27! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

Notes:!see!end!of!table!12.! ! !

!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

G!7!268! G!7!269! G!7!270! G!7!271! H!!272! H!!273! H!!274! I! L!1! L!2! L!3! L!4! L!5! L!6! L!7! L!8! tw262;tw263! tw263;tw262!

W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! X!01! X!01! X!01! X!01! T!01! U!01! W!01! W!01! V!01! V!01! W!01! W!01! W!02! Q!04!

R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!40! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!46!

! 21)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 23)! 23)!

185!

186!


Table'21:'Classification'VZ'1950' Original' code' A!1!01! A!1!02! A!1!03! A!2!04! A!2!05! B!1!06! B!1!07! B!1!08! B!1!09! B!1!10! B!1!11! B!2!12! B!2!13! B!2!14! B!2!15! B!2!16! B!2!17! B!2!18! C!01!19! C!01!20! C!01!21! C!01!22! C!01!23! C!01!24! C!01!25! C!01!26! C!01!27! C!01!28! C!01!29! C!01!30! C!01!31! C!01!32! C!01!33! C!01!34! C!01!35! C!01!36! C!02!37! C!02!38! C!02!39! C!02!40! C!02!41! C!02!42! C!03!43! C!03!44! C!04a!45! C!04a!46! C!04b!47! C!04b!48! C!04b!49! C!04b!50! C!04c!51! C!04c!52! C!04c!53! C!04d!54! C!04d!55! C!04d!56! C!04e!57! C!04e!58! C!04e!59! C!04e!60! C!04f! C!04g!

HI'54' A!01! A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!02! B!02! B!02! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!01! B!01! B!04! B!04! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!06! B!06! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!03! C!02!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

!! Original'code' C!15!149! ! C!15!150! ! C!15!151! ! C!15!152! ! C!15!153! ! C!15!154! ! C!15!155! ! C!16!156! ! C!16!157! ! C!16!158! ! C!16!159! ! C!16!160! ! C!16!161! ! C!16!162! ! C!16!163! ! C!16!164! ! C!16!165! ! C!16!166! ! C!16!167! ! C!16!168! ! C!17!169! ! C!17!170! ! C!18!171! ! C!18!172! ! C!18!173! ! C!18!174! ! C!18!175! ! C!18!176! ! C!18!177! ! C!18!178! ! C!18!179! ! C!18!180! ! C!18!181! ! C!19!182! ! C!19!183! ! C!19!184! ! C!19!185! ! D!1!186! ! D!1!187! ! D!1!188! ! D!1!189! ! D!1!190! ! D!1!191! ! D!1!192! ! D!1!193! ! D!1!194! ! D!1!195! ! D!1!196! ! D!1!197! ! D!1!198! ! D!1!199! ! D!1!200! ! D!1!201! ! D!1!202! ! D!1!203! ! D!1!204! ! D!1!205! ! D!1!206! ! D!1!207! ! D!1!208! ! D!1!209! ! D!1!210! !

HI'54' I!03! I!03! I!03! I!03! I!01! I!03! I!02! H!01! O!01! H!02! H!01! H!01! H!02! H!02! H!02! H!02! H!02! H!02! N!01! H!02! N!03! N!03! O!01! O!01! O!02! O!02! O!02! O!02! N!01! O!03! O!02! X!01! X!01! P!01! P!01! P!01! P!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !


C!04h!61! C!04h!62! C!04h!63! C!04h!64! C!04h!65! C!04h!66! C!04h!67! C!04h!68! C!05!69! C!05!70! C!05!71! C!05!72! C!05!73! C!05!74! C!05!75! C!05!76! C!05!77! C!05!78! C!05!79! C!05!80! C!05!81! C!05!82! C!05!83! C!05!84! C!05!85! C!06!86! C!06!87! C!06!88! C!06!89! C!07!90! C!07!91! C!07!92! C!07!93! C!08!94! C!08!95! C!08!96! C!09! C!10! C!11!097! C!11!098! C!11!099! C!11!100! C!11!101! C!11!102! C!11!103! C!11!104! C!11!105! C!11!106! C!11!107! C!11!108! C!11!109! C!11!110! C!11!111! C!11!112! C!11!113! C!11!114! C!11!115! C!11!116! C!11!117! C!11!118! C!11!119! C!12!120! C!12!121! C!12!122! C!12!123! C!12!124!

C!04! C!04! C!04! C!01! C!04! C!04! C!04! C!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!02! D!02! E!03! D!01! X!01! X!01! F!01! F!02! F!02! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! E!01! E!01! E!01! E!02! J!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! O!03! O!03! O!03! O!03! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! K!01! M!02! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01! L!01!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 7)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

D!1!211! D!1!212! D!1!213! D!1!214! D!1!215! D!1!216! D!1!217! D!1!218! D!1!219! D!1!220! D!1!221! D!2!222! D!2!223! D!3! D!4!224! D!4!225! D!4!226! D!4!227! D!4!228! D!4!229! D!4!230! D!4!231! D!4!232! D!4!233! D!4!234! D!4!235! D!4!236! D!4!237! D!4!238! E!!239! E!!240! E!!241! E!!242! E!!243! F!!244! F!!245! F!!246! F!!247! F!!248! F!!249! F!!250! F!!251! F!!252! F!!253! F!!254! F!!255! F!!256! G!1!257! G!1!258! G!1!259! G!1!260! G!2!261! G!2!262! G!3!263! G!3!264! G!3!265! G!3!266! G!3!267! G!3!268! G!3!269! G!3!270! G!3!271! G!3!272! G!4!273! G!4!274! G!4!275!

Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!03! Q!03! Q!02! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! S!01! R!01! R!01! R!01! R!01! R!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!02! S!02! S!01! S!03! S!03! S!01! S!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! Q!04! Q!04! U!01! U!01! U!01! U!01! Q!01! U!01! U!01! W!02! W!02! X!03! V!01! W!02! V!01!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

187!

188!


C!12!125! L!01! C!12!126! L!01! C!12!127! L!01! C!12!128! K!01! C!12!129! K!01! C!12!130! L!01! C!12!131! L!01! C!12!132! L!01! C!12!133! L!01! C!12!134! L!01! C!12!135! L!01! C!12!136! L!01! C!12!137! L!01! C!12!138! L!01! C!12!139! L!01! C!13!140! M!01! C!13!141! M!02! C!14!142! N!02! C!14!143! N!02! C!14!144! N!02! C!14!145! L!01! C!15!146! I!01! C!15!147! I!02! C!15!148! I!02! !! !! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

R!28! R!28! R!28! R!27! R!27! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!29! R!29! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!28! R!25! R!25! R!25! !!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

Notes:!see!end!of!table!12.! ! !

!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

G!4!276! G!4!277! G!4!280! G!5!281! G!5!282! G!6! G!7!283! G!7!284! G!7!285! G!7!286! G!7!287! H!!288! H!!289! H!!290! I! L!1! L!2! L!3! L!4! L!5! L!6! L!7! L!8! tw!279! tw!279!

Q!04! W!02! N!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! X!01! X!01! X!01! X!01! T!01! U!01! W!01! W!01! V!01! V!01! W!01! W!01! Q!04! W!02!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 23)! 23)!


Table'22:'Classifcation'VZ'1960' Original' code' 1! 2! 3! 4! 100! 101! 102! 103! 104! 200! 202! 203! 204! 205! 206! 207! 208! 209! 210! 220! 221! 222! 223! 224! 230! 231! 240! 241! 242! 243! 244! 245! 246! 247! 248! 250! 251! 252! 253! 254! 255! 256! 257! 258! 260! 261! 262! 263! 264! 265! 266! 267! 270! 271! 280! 281! 282! 283! 284! 285! 290! 291!

HI'54' A!01! A!02! A!03! A!04! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! I!01! B!01! B!03! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!04! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!05! B!06! B!06! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!01! C!03! C!02! C!01! C!01! C!04! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!01! D!02! D!02! D!01! H!01! H!01! H!02! H!02! H!02! N!01! H!01! H!02! F!01! F!02! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! G!01! Q!04! E!01! E!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Original' !! code' 374! ! 375! ! 400! ! 401! ! 402! ! 403! ! 404! ! 405! ! 500! ! 501! ! 502! ! 600! ! 601! ! 602! ! 603! ! 604! ! 605! ! 606! ! 607! ! 608! ! 609! ! 610! ! 611! ! 612! ! 613! ! 614! ! 615! ! 616! ! 630! ! 640! ! 650! ! 651! ! 652! ! 653! ! 654! ! 655! ! 700! ! 701! ! 702! ! 703! ! 704! ! 705! ! 706! ! 707! ! 800! ! 801! ! 802! ! 850! ! 851! ! 852! ! 853! ! 860! ! 861! ! 862! ! 863! ! 864! ! 870! ! 871! ! 872! ! 873! ! 880! ! 890! !

HI'54' N!02! E!03! O!01! O!01! O!02! O!02! O!02! O!02! P!01! P!01! P!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!03! Q!02! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!02! S!01! S!01! S!03! R!01! R!01! R!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! T!01! U!01! U!01! U!01! U!01! U!01! V!01! V!01! Q!04! W!02! W!01! W!01!


note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

189!


190!

292! E!01! 300! E!02! 310! J!01! 330! I!01! 331! I!02! 332! I!02! 333! I!03! 334! I!03! 335! I!03! 336! I!01! 340! K!01! 341! K!01! 342! K!01! 343! O!03! 344! O!03! 350! L!01! 351! L!01! 352! L!01! 360! M!01! 361! M!02! 370! N!03! 371! N!03! 372! N!01! 373! N!01! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

R!20! R!21! R!26! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!25! R!27! R!27! R!27! R!27! R!27! R!28! R!28! R!28! R!29! R!29! R!24! R!24! R!24! R!24!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 7)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

900! 901! 902! 903! 904! 905! 910! 911! 920! 921! 922! 923! 924! 925! 930! 931! 932! 933! 934! 935! 936! 937! tw201! tw201!

W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! W!02! X!01! X!01! X!01! X!01! X!01! X!01! X!03! X!01! T!01! U!01! W!01! W!01! V!01! V!01! W!01! W!01! B!02! B!02!

R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!42! R!41! R!42! R!40! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!41! R!07! R!04!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

Notes!for!the!harmonization!from!1888!to!1960:! The!classification!has!been!reconstructed!backwards!from!1960!using!the!conversion!tables!from!one!census!to!the! other.! See! titles! of! the! harmonized! industries! in! tables! 3! and! 4,! and! conversion! from! original! codes! to! harmonized! industries!in!tables!5!to!12.! 1)

In! 1900! the! industry! “Landwirtschaft! und! Viehzucht”! is! subdivided! into! different! subGindustries.! One! of! those! (Obstbaumzucht)! then! becomes! part! of! the! industry! “Gartenbau”,! which! corresponds! to! the! HI_54! industry!A!02.!In!the!year!1900!“Obstbaumzucht”!counts!232!workers!(0.04%!of!A!01!and!2.7%!of!A!02).!In! the! district! of! Genève! the! proportions! are! highest! (0.5%! of! A! 01! and! 1.9%! of! A! 02).! Given! these! small! proportions!I!decided!not!to!reconstruct!the!subGindustry!“Obstbaumzucht”!for!1888.!For!the!reconstruction! I! used! each! districts! 1900! ratio! “Obstbaumzucht”/rest! of! A! 02! and! multiplied! it! with! the! reported! A! 02! employment!of!1888.!The!estimated!“Obstbaumzucht”Gindustry!counts!161!workers.!

2)

The!industry!“Verfertigung!von!Schuhwerk”!also!includes!the!“Elastiqueweberei”.!Until!1880!and!from!1900! onwards,!this!was!a!subGindustry!of!the!textile!industry!C!04.!My!1888!reconstruction!reproduces!the!1900! districtGspecific!relative!weight!of!the!two!industries.!

3)

The!industry!“Kunstmalerei”!also!includes!“Dekorative!Bearbeitung!des!Glases!und!des!Porzellans,!which!is! split!off!in!1900!and!belongs!to!I!03..!In!1900!this!concerns!208!workers!(3.1%!of!I!03!and!6.3%!of!W!02).!My! 1888!reconstruction!reproduces!the!1900!districtGspecific!relative!weight.!

4)

"Herstellung!von!Glühkörpern!und!galvanischer!Kohle"!is!a!1910!spinGoff!from!“andere!chemische!Gewerbe”.! Reconstruction! for! 1900:! In! 1910! this! new! industry! is! limited! to! certain! districts;! and! only! few! of! these! districts!have!positive!employment!in!“andere!chemische!Gewerbe”!around!1900.!In!those!cases!where!such! a! correspondence! exists,! I! have! reconstructed! the! 1910! relative! weight! between! "Herstellung! von! Glühkörpern! und! galvanischer! Kohle"! and! the! other! followGup! industry! ("Herstellung! von! Stärke,! Appreturen,!Dextrin!und!anderen!Klebstoffen").!At!the!same!time!I!have!defined!a!maximum!employment!for! "Herstellung! von! Glühkörpern! und! galvanischer! Kohle",! which! corresponds! to! the! districts! 1920! employment!in!this!industry.!Reconstruction!of!1888:!same!procedure!as!for!1900.!

5)

The! industry! “Einrichtung! und! Betrieb! von! elektrischen! KraftG! oder! Beleuchtungsanlagen”! was! separated! into! 3! subGindustries::! "Elektrische! Installationsgeschäfte"! (K! 01);! "Betrieb! von! Elektrizitätswerken! und!


191!

Stromabgabe"! (P! 01);! and! "Kabelwerke"! (L! 01).! Reconstruction! for! 1900:! In! a! first! step! I! reconstructed! “Kabelwerke”,! which! is! strongly! concentrated! in! space.! For! districts! with! positive! employment! in! 1910,! I! have! reconstructed! the! relative! weight! of! 1910.! In! a! second! step! I! estimated! employment! in! “Elektrizitätswerke”.! For! this! purpose! I! reconstructed! for! each! district! the! relative! weight! of! 1910,! while! simultaneously! imposing! a! ceiling,! which! corresponds! to! 1910! employment.! This! procedure! results! in! a! national! employment! level! of! 2327! workers,! which! appears! very! plausible! when! compared! to! the! growth! trend!of!the!industry!after!1910.!In!a!third!step!the!remaining!employees!were!attributed!to!K!01.!The!same! procedure!was!applied!for!the!1888!reconstruction.! 6)

The!industry!“Metallpulver!und!Blattmetall”!is!created!in!1920!and!attributed!to!the!Metal!industry!(K!01).! In!1920!it!is!strongly!concentrated!in!space:!219!of!251!workers!are!counted!in!the!district!of!Burgdorf,!12!in! Hinwil,!7!in!Genève,!5!in!Kreuzlingen,!4!in!Fraubrunnen,!and!1!each!!in!Luzern,!Winterthur,!and!Zurich.!For! those!districts,!I!have!reconstructed!!the!relative!weight!of!1920.!The!same!procedure!was!applied!for!1900! and!1888.!

7)

Until!1920!“Eisengiesserei”!was!counted!as!part!of!“Maschinenindustrie”!(which!is!part!of!L!01);!from!1930! to!1960!it!was!a!separate!subGindustry!of!the!Metal!industry!(which!is!part!of!K!01);!and!afterwards!it!was! part!of!a!larger!subGindustry!of!the!metal!industry!(again!K!01).!Since!I!cannot!rely!on!district!data!from!1930! to! 1960,! I! can! neither! split! “Eisengiesserei”! off! from! the! “Maschinenindustrie”! before! 1930! nor! split! it! off! from! the! metal! industry! after! 1960.! A! complete! harmonization! of! K! 01! and! L! 01! over! the! whole! period! is! therefore!impossible.!Until!1920,!Eisengiesserei!is!therefore!part!of!L!01!and!afterwards!it!is!part!of!K!01.!!

8)

In!1888,!the!industries!“ärztliche!Krankenpflege”!and!“nichtGärztliche!Krankenpflege”!(part!of!U!01)!include! also!producers!of!artificial!articulations.!After!1900!these!are!counted!separately!and!belong!to!the!machine! industry!(L!01).!In!1900!this!subGindustry!counts!135!workers,!who!are!mainly!located!in!Bern!(46),!Genève! (20),!Zürich!(16),!Lausanne!(11),!and!BaselGStadt!(9).!Those!are!of!course!also!important!health!care!centers,! so! that! it! is! difficult! to! separate! the! artificial! articulations! subGindustry.! However,! in! 1888! the! number! of! workers!in!this!subGindustry!were!certainly!less!than!in!1900,!i.e.!between!1!and!135!persons.!At!the!national! level!in!1900!the!new!subGindustry!corresponds!to!only!0.4%!of!L!01!and!0.7%!of!U!01.!For!the!district!of! Bern,!where!the!proportion!is!largest,!it!corresponds!to!4.6%!of!L!01!and!4.2%!of!U!01.!In!order!to!minimize! the!maximal!possible!error!margin,!I!assume!for!each!district!that!in!1888!the!artificial!articulations!industry! counted!half!as!many!workers!as!in!1900.!

9)

!Until! 1888! “Torfgräberei”! was! counted! as! part! of! “Landwirtschaft”.! After! 1900! it! was! counted! separately! and! belonged! to! the! mining! sector! (I! 01).! In! 1900! there! are! 100! workers,! i.e.! 1.8%! of! I! 01! and! 0.2%! of! agriculture.!In!a!few!districts!the!proportion!is!more!important,!for!example!in!le!Locle!where!“Torfgräberei”! counts! 29! out! of! 46! workers! of! the! mining! sector.! From! 1900! to! 1910! the! number! of! workers! in! “Torfgräberei”! remains! practically! stable.! For! the! reconstruction! I! used! each! districts! 1900! ratio! “Torfgräber”/other! mining! industries! and! multiplied! it! with! the! mining! workers! of! 1888.! The! estimated! “Torfgräber”Gindustry!counts!110!workers.!

10) Until! 1900! “Auswanderungsagenturen”! and! “VerkehrsG! und! Reisebureau”! is! part! of! “BankG! und! Vermittlungswesen”! (Q! 03! and! Q! 04).! Afterwards! these! are! counted! separately! and! belong! to! the! transportation! sector! (S! 01).! Both! “Auswanderungsagenturen”! and! “VerkehrsG! und! Reisebureau”! are! strongly!concentrated!in!space!(the!former!in!Basel,!the!latter!in!Graubünden).!To!split!those!industries!off!I! have!applied!the!relative!industry!weight!of!1910!to!the!1900!and!1888!totals.!Given!the!small!size!of!these! two!industries!this!does!not!significantly!alter!the!Q!03,!Q!04!or!S!01.! 11) In! 1888! banking! and! insurance! are! counted! as! one! industry.! In! order! to! separate! the! two! I! have! reconstructed!the!districtGspecific!relative!industry!weight!of!1900.!

192!


12) Until!1900,!“Privatgelehrte”,!“Schriftsteller”,!“Journalisten”,!“Stenographen”,!“Ingenieure!und!Geometer”!and! “Privatsekretäre”! are! counted! together! (part! of! .W! 02).! Afterwards! Stenographen! and! “Ingenieure! und! Geometer”!are!separated!and!belong!to!the!commercial!and!technical!services!sector!Q!04.!I!reconstructed! the!districtGspecific!relative!industry!weight!of!1910!for!1900!and!1888.! 13) Until! 1900! “Bildhauerei”! (I! 01)! and! “Holzschnitzerei”! (H! 02)! are! part! of! the! same! aggregate.! “Holzschnitzerei”!is!geographically!very!concentrated:!in!1910!931!out!of!1218!“Holzschnitzer”!are!located! in! the! canton! of! Bern! in! the! districts! of! Interlaken! and! Oberhasli.! I! have! reconstructed! the! districtGspecific! relative!industry!weight!of!1910!on!the!totals!of!1900!and!1888.! 14) In! 1920! “Betrieb! von! Wasserwerken”! (part! of! P! 01)! was! split! off! from! “Quellwasserfassung! und! Brunnengräberei”! (part! of! O! 01).! The! two! industries! together! count! 953! workers,! the! majority! of! which! (685)!belong!to!“Betrieb!von!Wasserwerken”.!In!1888,!1900,!and!1910!the!industry!counts!787,!2908,!and! 1533! workers.! This! boom! between! 1888! and! 1920! corresponds! certainly! to! infrastructure! construction! in! the! context! of! accelerating! urbanization.! Hence,! the! largest! part! of! this! industry! must! belong! to! the! construction! industry.! As! a! consequence! of! the! construction! of! infrastructure! the! number! of! workers! operating!water!stations!must!have!been!growing!quickly,!which!implies!that!the!number!of!workers!in!such! stations!was!much!lower!than!the!685!of!1920.!Assuming!a!growth!rate!of!4%!per!year!(which!corresponds! to!the!growth!rate!of!the!rest!of!P!01)!the!estimated!employment!in!1910!would!be!455!workers,!i.e.!5.5%!of! P!01!and!3.9%!of!O!01.!I!considered!these!proportions!as!negligible!and!counted!“Quellwasserfassung!und! Brunnengräberei”!entirely!to!the!construction!industry!(O!01).!! 15) Before! 1910! the! industry! “Einrichtung! von! Brunnen! und! Wasserleitungen”! contains! the! future! “Quellwasserfassung!und!Brunnengräberei”!(part!of!O!01!see!note!14)!and!the!future!“Installation!von!Gas,! Wasser! und! sanitären! Anlagen”! (part! of! O! 03).! In! 1910! the! two! industries! have! roughly! the! same! weight.! Therefore,!in!1900!and!1888,!I!counted!one!half!of!the!industry!to!O!03!and!the!other!half!to!O!01.! 16) In! 1910,! “KnopfG! und! Kammmacherei”! includes! also! parts! of! what! was! counted! in! the! “KautschukG! und! Zelluloidwaren”! industry! in! 1920.! But! apparently! the! statistical! office! considered! this! part! as! negligible,! because! in! its! retrospective! statistic! of! the! “Kautschukindustrie”! it! only! counts! the! 223! workers! of! the! industry!B!e!128.!(see!Volkszählung!1941,!Table!38!p.!102).! 17) In!1920!the!branch!“Leder!und!Lederersatzmittel”!was!divided!into!two!industries:!“Gerbereien”!remained!a! part!of!the!leather!industry!(E!01),!while!“Linoleum!und!Kunstleder”!became!part!of!the!chemical!industry!(J! 01).! In! 1920,! the! latter! industry! was! geographically! strongly! concentrated:! 165! out! of! 219! employed!! persons!lived!in!the!district!of!Bellinzona,!6!in!Locarno,!8!in!Zurich,!5!in!Aarau,!4!in!Kulm,!3!in!Geneva,!3!in! Kulm,! 1! in! Basel! city! and! 1! in! Riviera.! The! industry! “Gerbereien”! was! rather! evenly! distributed! in! space,! except!for!Lugano,!which!was!a!renowned!center!for!leather!fashion!articles.!For!1910!and!for!the!districts! that!had!no!artificial!leather!industry!in!1920,!I!have!counted!the!industry!“Leder!und!Lederersatzmittel”!to! E!01.!For!the!other!districts,!I!have!counted!a!part!of!the!industry!to!E!01,!which!corresponds!to!districts!of! similar! size;! the! rest! was! counted! to! J! 01.! This! leads! to! the! following! deviation! from! the! original! data:! 74! persons! in! Bellinzona,! 9! in! Zurich,! 6! in! Locarno,! 3! in! Aarau! and! 3! in! Geneva! have! been! counted! to! the! chemical! industry.! Before! 1910,! the! artificial! leather! industry! was! certainly! of! negligeable! size.! Bellinzona! counted!only!9!persons!in!the!branch!“Leder!und!Lederersatzmittel”,!which!corresponds!more!or!less!to!the! size! of! the! sector! in! comparable! districts;! Locarno! counts! 6! persons;! and! in! Zurich,! Aarau! and! Geneva! the! sector!was!certainly!not!much!larger!than!in!1910.! 18) The! industries! of! explosives,! fireworks,! munition,! and! weapons! have! been! subject! to! several! classification! changes!between!1900!and!1920.!The!1920!industries!“Explosivstoffe!und!Feuerwerkskörper”!and!“WaffenG! und! Munitionsfabrikation”! belong! to! chemicals! (J! 01)! and! the! machine! industry! (L! 01).! In! 1900! these!


193!

workers! were! distributed! in! 5! different! categories:! "SchiessG! und! Sprengpulver",! Dynamit! und! andere! Explosivstoffe",! "Geschosse",! "Waffen",!und! "Pyrotechnik! und! Feuerwerk".! The! comparison! of! districtGlevel! employment! in! these! industries! reveals! that! the! first! two! and! the! last! industry! of! 1900! correspond! to! the! industry! "Explosivstoffe! und! Feuerwerkskörper"! of! 1920,! while! the! two! others! correspond! to! the! 1920s! “WaffenG! und! Munitionsfabrikation”.! In! 1910,! the! industries! were! mixed! up! in! a! way! that! is! hard! to! disentangle.! For! the! harmonization! I! reconstructed! the! districtGspecific! relative! weight! of! the! 1920! industries! with! the! total! of! 1910.! If! there! was! no! employment! in! 1920,! the! relative! weights! of! 1900! were! reconstructed.!If!there!was!no!employment!in!1900!either,!all!employees!were!counted!to!L!01,!because!in! 1920!81%!of!the!employment!was!in!that!industry.! 19) In! 1920! “Eisenbahnbau”! and! “Eisenbahnreparaturwerstätten”! are! separated.! The! former! belongs! to! the! construction! industry! O! 01! and! the! latter! to! the! machine! industry! L! 01.! When! understanding! “Eisenbahnreparaturwerkstätten”! as! maintenance! workshops! that! are! independent! from! railway! construction,! then! the! majority! of! the! 1910! industry! should! be! counted! rather! to! O! 01! than! to! L! 01.! This! conclusion!is!based!on!the!districtGlevel!employment!patterns!between!1870!and!1910.!These!appear!to!be! very!cyclical!and!rather!depending!on!temporary!construction!sites!that!change!regularly!than!on!permanent! maintenance!needs.!Hence,!before!1920,!I!counted!the!whole!industry!to!O!01.! 20) In!1930!“Kunstseide”!and!“Zelluloid”!are!separated.!The!former!belongs!to!textiles!(C!01)!and!the!latter!to! chemicals!(J!01).!In!1930!359!out!367!workers!of!the!Zelluloid!industry!are!located!in!the!canton!of!Bern.!In! 1920!Bern!counts!only!15!workers!in!the!industry!“Kunstseide!und!Zelluloid”.!I!counted!these!15!workers!to! the!chemicals!industry.!In!1910,!Bern!has!no!worker!in!this!industry.! 21) In! 1941! “Filmaufnahme”! (W! 02)! is! split! off! from! “Photographenateliers”! (G! 01).! The! new! industry! counts! 225!persons!(i.e.!2.4%!of!W!02!and!0.9%!of!G!01),!of!which!146!are!located!in!Zurich.!The!rest!is!located!in! Basel,! Vaud,! Genève,! and! Bern.! For! these! cantons! I! have! calculated! the! annual! growth! rate! from! 1941! to! 1950.! For! Zürich,! Genève,! and! Vaud! I! estimated! the! 1930! cantonal! employment! of! “Filmaufnahme”! by! extrapolating! backwards! the! growth! rate! between! 1941! and! 1950.! In! Bern! the! industry! remains! constant! between! 1941! and! 1950! and! in! Basel! the! industry! declines! quickly.! Probably! because! Zürich! establishes! itself! as! the! center.! It! is! hard! to! know! if! employment! in! Basel! was! still! growing! in! the! 1930s! or! if! it! was! already!in!decline.!I!chose!a!neutral!solution!and!assumed!it!to!be!of!the!same!size!as!in!1941.!I!suppose!that! before!1930!“Filmaufnahme”!was!negligible!and!do!attempt!to!reconstruct!it!further!back.! 22) In!1941!“Schnitzerei”!and!“Holzspielwaren”!are!separated.!The!former!belongs!to!H!02!and!the!latter!to!N!01.! For! 1930,! I! have! applied! the! cantonGspecific! relative! industry! weight! to! the! 1930! total.! Before! 1930,! the! “Spielwaren”!industry!was!probably!negligible.! 23) In!1960!“Ateliers!von!Graphikern!und!Zeichnern”!(Q!04)!is!split!off!from!“Kunstmalerei!und!Bildhauerei”!(W! 02).!From!1960!to!1980!“Ateliers!von!Graphikern!und!Zeichnern”!is!a!relatively!fast!growing!industry!(2%! per!year;!while!“Kunstmalerei!und!Bildhauerei”!on!the!contrary!is!rather!slow!growing!(0.7%!per!year).!Both! industries! together! are! growing! at! 1.32%.! In! 1950! the! same! aggregate! counts! 3161! persons! and! in! 1941! 2534!persons,!i.e.!a!growth!rate!of!3%!per!year!in!the!1950s!and!2.4%!in!the!1940s.!For!the!reconstruction!of! I! have! tried! different! simulation! with! the! observed! cantonal! growth! rate! for! the! whole! aggregate! and! a! hypothetical! growth! rate! for! the! industry! “Kunstmalerei! and! Bildhauerei”.! The! higher! the! hypothetical! growth!rate!for!“Kunstmalerei!and!Bildhauerei”!the!smaller!the!growth!rate!of!“Ateliers!von!Graphikern!und! Zeichnern”!and!the!larger!its!employment.!With!an!assumed!growth!rate!of!Kunstmalerei!und!Bildhauerei!of! 0%! per! year,! the! growth! rates! of! Graphiker! und! Zeichner! are! very! high! (12%! in! the! 1940s! and! 9%! in! the! 1950s)!and!the!industry!is!very!small!in!1941!(275!persons).!A!simulation!with!a!comparatively!high!growth! rate! of! the! Kunstmalerei! und! Bildhauerei! industry! (1.5%! per! year,! i.e.! more! than! the! double! of! its! growth!

194!


rate!between!1960!and!1980)!yields!a!Graphiker!und!Zeichner!employment!of!755!persons!in!1941.!Finally,!I! chose! a! intermediate! growth! rate! (0.7%,! i.e.! the! observed! growth! rate! between! 1960! and! 1980),! which! yields! a! Graphiker! und! Zeichner! industry! of! 493! persons! in! 1941.! This! corresponds! to! 2.5%! of! Q! 04! and! 4.5%!of!W!02.!I!consider!that!the!industry!was!negligible!before!1930!and!before!and!do!not!reconstruct!it! further!back.! 24) Until!1930,!skulpters!of!gravestones!were!counted!as!part!of!the!“Bildhauerei”!(W!02)!and!afterwards!they! were!included!in!“Bearbeitung!von!Natursteinen”!(I!01).!The!changes!in!both!industries!between!1930!and! 1941! reveal! that! the! skulpters! of! gravestones! were! approximately! 1000! persons,! i.e.! three! quarters! of! “Bildhauerei”! before! 1930,! and! around! 10%! of! I! 01! and! W! 02.! Since! I! dispose! only! of! cantonal! data! after! 1930,!it!is!practically!impossible!to!reconstruct!the!industry!at!the!districtGlevel.! 25) From! 1941! onwards! “Gemeinnützige! Organisationen”! (W! 01)! and! “Verbandssekretariate”! (Q! 04)! are! separated.!In!1941!the!former!counts!1878!and!the!latter!3642.!Both!industries!are!concentrated!rather!in! central! places.! Their! relative! weight! differs! from! one! region! to! the! other.! While! Zürich! is! dominated! by! “Verbandssekretariate”,! Genève! counts! many! employees! in! “Gemeinnützige! Organisationen”.! I! have! reconstructed! the! two! industries! using! the! cantonGspecific! relative! weight! of! 1950! and! attributing! the! employment!of!both!industries!entirely!to!the!cantons!capital.! ! ! !

!


195!

Table'23:'Classification'VZ'1970-2000' Original' code' HI'54' 10! A!01! 20! A!02! 30! A!03! 40! A!04! 110! P!01! 211! B!01! 212! B!02! 213! B!03! 214! B!04! 216! B!04! 219! B!04! 220! B!05! 230! B!06! 241! C!01! 245! C!03! 246! C!02! 247! C!04! 251! D!01! 255! D!01! 261! H!01! 262! H!02! 271! F!01! 272! F!02! 280! G!01! 291! E!01! 293! D!02! 311! J!01! 314! J!01! 321! E!03! 322! E!02! 331! I!01! 333! I!02! 335! I!03! 336! I!03! 341! K!01! 344! K!01! 345! K!01! 350! L!01! 371! M!01! 372! M!02! 381! N!02! 382! N!03! 383! G!01! 384! N!01! 410! O!01! !! !! Tw!=!“parts!of”!

SGZ'18' SGZ!01! SGZ!01! SGZ!01! SGZ!01! SGZ!15! SGZ!02! SGZ!02! SGZ!02! SGZ!02! SGZ!02! SGZ!02! SGZ!02! SGZ!02! SGZ!03! SGZ!03! SGZ!03! SGZ!03! SGZ!04! SGZ!04! SGZ!13! SGZ!13! SGZ!06! SGZ!06! SGZ!07! SGZ!05! SGZ!04! SGZ!08! SGZ!08! SGZ!05! SGZ!05! SGZ!13! SGZ!13! SGZ!13! SGZ!13! SGZ!09! SGZ!09! SGZ!09! SGZ!10_11! SGZ!12! SGZ!12! SGZ!13! SGZ!13! SGZ!07! SGZ!13! SGZ!14! !!

note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 7)! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

Original' !! code' 421! ! 422! ! 423! ! 511! ! 512! ! 513! ! 514! ! 516! ! 517! ! 518! ! 519! ! 570! ! 610! ! 630! ! 640! ! 651! ! 652! ! 660! ! 710! ! 720! ! 730! ! 751! ! 752! ! 753! ! 761! ! 762! ! 763! ! 810! ! 820! ! 831! ! 833! ! 840! ! 851! ! 855! ! 861! ! 862! ! 870! ! 881! ! 882! ! 886! ! 890! ! 911! ! 912! ! tw!580! ! tw!580! !!! tw!580!

HI'54' O!03! O!02! O!03! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! Q!01! R!01! S!01! S!02! S!01! S!01! S!01! S!03! Q!03! Q!02! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! Q!04! X!01! X!03! X!01! V!01! V!01! U!01! U!01! P!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! W!01! Q!04! W!02! W!02! W!02! X!01! T!01! T!01! D!01! L!01! M!01!

SGZ'18' SGZ!14! SGZ!14! SGZ!14! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!17! SGZ!18! SGZ!18! SGZ!18! SGZ!18! SGZ!18! SGZ!18! SGZ!16! SGZ!16! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!15! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19! SGZ!19!

note' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!

Notes!for!the!harmonization!from!1960!to!2000:! The!harmonization!from!1960!to!2000!is!mainly!a!forward!construction!of!the!1960!classification.!A!slight!deviation! from!the!1960!classification!was!applied!in!the!industries!N!01!and!H!02:!“BesenG,!BürstenG!und!Pinselherstellung”!is! counted!as!part!of!N!01.!The!classification!of!the!sectors!commerce,!banking,!and!insurance!was!taken!over!from!the! harmonized! classification! of! the! statistical! office! for! 1970! to! 2000,! which! corresponds! to! the! ASWZ! 1990! classification.!For!these!industries,!a!forward!reconstruction!of!the!1960!classification!is!impossible!and!would!be!less! adequate!for!analyzing!the!evolution!of!these!sectors!since!1970.!! Practically,!I!used!the!harmonized!data!set!1970G2000!provided!by!the!Federal!statistical!office!(1990!classification)! and!harmonized!it!with!the!1960!census.!This!provides!certainly!the!most!consistent!classification!for!the!period!1970! to!2000,!but!reduces!the!consistency!between!1960!and!1970.!However,!the!reduced!consistency!between!1960!and!


196!

1970!is!less!of!a!problem!because!in!my!analyses!the!1960s!are!part!of!a!longer!time!period!with!very!high!growth! rates,! so! that! inconsistencies! are! much! more! diluted! than! they! would! be! in! the! following! 10Gyear! periods.! Harmonizing! the! 1990! classification! with! the! 1960! classification! was! not! possible! without! following! the! changes! in! 1970,!1980,!and!1990.!! 1)

The! industry! 258_60! “Andere! Bekleidungsgegenstände”! (2928! workers)! is! eliminated! and! distributed! into! two! industries! in! 1970.! Part! of! it! is! counted! to! the! industry! 385_70! “Verarbeitung! verschiedener! Materialien”!(2452!workers),!which!includes!also!the!former!industry!265_60!(1591!pax).!The!rest!goes!into! 241_70!“Kleider,!Wäsche”!(57793!workers).!385_70!is!part!of!N!01!and!241_70!of!D!01.!The!industry!385_70! grows! very! quickly! in! the! following! years! from! 2452! workers! in! 1970! to! 12868! in! 1990;! while! D! 01! is! strongly! declining! from! 92165! workers! in! 1970! to! 19116! workers! in! 1990.! The! former! industry! 265_60! “Besen,!Bürsten,!Pinsel”!is!also!declining:!1888!workers!in!1950!and!1591!in!1960.!Hence!the!majority!of!the! new!industry!385_70!must!be!composed!of!new!industries!so!that!the!part!of!what!was!originally!counted!in! the! apparel! industry! is! negligible.! Therefore,! I! count! the! whole! 385_70! (=384_90)! to! N! 01.! The! difference! between! the! national! employment! in! N! 01! according! to! my! counting! method! and! that! of! the! original! publication!of!1970!is!only!18!workers,!which!is!definitely!negligible!compared!to!total!employment!in!the! apparel!industry!(75109!according!to!the!original!publication).!

2)

In! 1980! “Reparatur! von! Schuhen”! and! “Reparatur! von! Kleidern”! are! separated! from! the! apparel! industry.! The!former!counts!1399!workers!and!the!latter!442.!This!lowers!total!employment!in!D!01!by!4.4%.!In!1990! all!repair!industries!are!merged!to!one!industry!580_90,!so!that!it!is!impossible!to!know!the!exact!number!of! workers! to! subtract! from! the! reparation! industry! and! add! to! the! apparel! or! shoe! industry.! To! solve! this! problem!I!have!used!data!from!the!Betriebszählungen!1995!and!2001.!The!two!industries!5271_noga02!and! 5274_noga02!together!count!1808!workers!in!1995!and!1277!in!2001.!Both!industries!are!distributed!rather! regularly! in! space.! From! the! original! publication! of! the! Volkszählung! 1980! we! know! employment! in! “Schuhreparatur”!and!“Kleiderreparatur”!at!the!national!level,!but!not!for!regions.!Since!the!repair!industries! (580_90)!are!distributed!rather!evenly!I!have!subtracted!a!fixed!percentage!(3%)!of!the!repair!industry!and! added! to! the! apparel! and! shoe! industry.! For! the! Volkszählungen! 1990! und! 2000! I! have! subtracted! the! districtGspecific! number! of! workers! as! provided! in! the! Betriebszählungen! 1995! and! 2001! from! the! repair! industry.! This! harmonization! is! relevant,! because! the! apparel! and! shoe! industries! declined! strongly! after! 1960! with! the! exception! of! repair! services.! Hence,! these! services! represent! a! growing! proportion! of! the! apparel!and!shoe!industries:!4.4%!in!1980!and!12.3%!in!2000.!!

3)

The!classifications!from!1970!to!1990!have!undergone!several!changes!within!the!graphical!industry,!which! are!difficult!to!disentangle.!The!harmonization!of!the!statistical!office!does!not!account!for!these!changes.!But! the! direct! harmonization! between! 1960! and! the! harmonized! industries! of! the! statistical! office! seem! plausible:!280_90!and!383_90!correspond!the!28_60.!

4)

In!1970,!part!of!the!industry!267_60!goes!together!with!262_60,!263_60!and!264_60!into!253_70!(H!01)!and! another!part!goes!together!with!372_60!and!373_60!into!384_70!(N!01).!In!1960!all!those!industries!together! count!16262!workers,!52%!of!which!are!part!of!H!01!and!48%!of!N!01.!In!1970!the!two!remaining!industries! count!16310!workers,!68%!of!which!are!part!of!N!01!and!32%!of!H!01.!In!order!to!reconstruct!the!relative! industry! weight! of! 1960! one! would! have! to! subtract! 3287! workers! from! N! 01! and! add! them! to! H! 01.! However,!it!does!not!make!sense!to!reconstruct!the!relative!industry!weight!of!1960,!because!the!industry! “übrige! Bearbeitung! von! Holz! und! Kork”! was! created! by! merging! old! industries! that! do! hardly! exist! any! more! (Küfer,! Kübler,! Wagner,! Kistenmacher).! The! 3287! workers! must! therefore! be! understood! as! the! maximal! number! of! workers! that! could! be! transferred! from! one! industry! to! the! other.! The! other! extreme! would! be! to! consider! the! number! of! workers! to! be! transferred! as! negligible! and! do! no! such! transfer.! The!


197!

correct! solution! must! be! somewhere! between! these! two! extremes.! The! industry! “übrige! Bearbeitung! von! Holz! und! Kork”! declines! from! 5194! workers! in! 1970! to! 2480! workers! in! 2000,! i.e.! G3.6%! per! year.! In! the! extreme!case!where!we!do!not!transfer!any!workers,!the!annual!growth!rate!for!the!1960s!would!be!G4.8%.! Reconstructing!the!growth!rate!of!G3.6%!would!require!a!transfer!of!680!workers!from!N!01!to!H!01,!i.e.!1%! of! H! 01.! At! the! bottom! line:! a! harmonization! without! any! transfer! seems! to! be! acceptable,! because! the! transfer!of!a!plausible!number!of!workers!has!a!negligible!effect!on!the!industry!size.! 5)

Reparation! of! watches! is! split! off! from! the! watch! industry! in! 1980! and! merged! with! the! other! repair! industries!in!1990.!I!applied!the!same!procedure!as!for!the!clothing!and!shoe!industry!(note!2):!for!1980,!I! counted! a! fixed! percentage! of! the! repair! industry! to! the! watch! industry! (0.41%);! for! 1990! and! 2000,! I! counted!in!each!district!the!number!of!employees!in!watch!reparation!reported!in!the!industrial!censuses!of! 1995!and!2001!to!watch!making.!

6)

From!1980!onwards!the!two!industries!921_80!and!922_80!are!separated!from!the!machine!industry!and!in! 1990!they!are!counted!to!the!repair!industry.!Since!I!have!already!estimated!the!clothing,!shoe,!and!watch! reparation!employment!(notes!2!and!5),!the!machine!reparation!can!be!estimated!simply!by!subtracting!the! aforementioned!industries!from!the!total!repair!industries.!

7)

The! industry! 384_70! seems! to! correspond! closely! to! 374_80.! However,! according! to! the! conversion! table! published!in!the!1980!census,!part!of!384G70!goes!into!402_80!and!884_80.!In!its!harmonized!data!set!from! 1970!to!2000,!the!statistical!office!has!not!accounted!for!this.!I!follow!this!procedure!and!do!not!subtract!any! workers!from!these!industries.!

8)

“BesenG,! BürstenG! und! Pinselherstellung”! has! never! been! reported! separately! after! 1960,! but! always! from! 1888!to!1960.!Therefore,!I!have!decided!to!deviate!from!the!1960!census!by!counting!this!industry!always!to! N!01!instead!of!H!02.!This!allows!for!the!construction!of!more!consistent!industries.!

9)

The!industries!401_70!and!402_70!are!merged!in!1980!and!become!industry!401_80!(=410_90).!According! to!the!conversion!table,!parts!of!401_70!go!into!884_80!and!parts!of!402_70!go!into!261_80.!The!harmonized! data!set!of!the!statistical!office!counts!240’031!workers!to!the!industry!410_90!in!1970,!while!the!original! publication! counts! 240’057! workers! in! the! industries! 402_70! and! 401_70.! The! difference! is! so! small! in! comparision!to!the!whole!construction!industry!that!I!decided!to!neglect!classification!change.!

10) In! 1960,! “Kehricht! und! Kläranlagen”! were! part! of! 502_60! “Elektrizität,! Gas! und! Wasserversorgung”,! while! “Abfalleinsammlung”! was! part! of! health! care.! In! 1970! “Abfallsammlung! und! Verwertung”! are! counted! together!as!part!of!the!cleaning!industry!X!01;!in!1980!again!as!part!of!electricity,!gas,!and!water!P!01;!and!in! 1990! as! a! separate! subGindustry.! I! considered! a! reconstruction! impossible! and! counted! all! garbage! and! sewer!services!as!part!of!P!01!as!in!1990.!This!leads!to!an!inconsistency!of!P!01!and!U!01!between!1960!and! 1970.!The!error!lies!between!0!and!2287!persons.!2287!workers!correspond!to!2%!of!U!01!and!10.10%!of!P! 01.! 11) A!lot!of!changes!have!occurred!between!in!the!classification!of!commerce,!banking!and!insurances.!These!are! hard!to!disentangle.!Therefore,!for!1970!to!2000,!I!use!the!harmonized!classification!of!the!statistical!office.! For!the!transition!from!1960!to!1970!it!is!hard!to!know!how!consistent!the!classifications!are.! 12) The!largest!part!of!“Pensionate!und!Institute”!from!1960!goes!into!792_70!(W!01).!But!a!small!part!should!be! counted!as!part!of!R!01.!In!1960!“Pensionate!und!Institute”!counts!4756!employees.!Compared!to!the!size!of! R!01!(134’117!workers)!and!W!01!(34’087!workers)!this!is!certainly!negligible.! ! ! ! !

!

198!


Table'24:'Evaluation'of'the'estimation'method'for'non-tradable'industries' Evaluation! of! the! method!

Average!error!(workers)!

with!1920!data!

Average!number!of!

R2!

workers!

Metzgerei,!Wursterei!

9!

!

98.74!

117.2!

98.56!

91.2!

98.50!

215.6!

99.29!

! Bäckerei,!Konditorei!

16.5! !

Herrenschneiderei!

17.2! !

Damenschneiderei!

25.5! !

Schuhreparatur,!

No!data!for!1920!

Spielwaren,!Sportgeräte! ! O! 01:! Hochbau,! Tiefbau,!

88.2!

484.9!

96.29!

21.6!

94.7!

95.76!

18.8!(15.9)!

76.2!(74.7)!

96.00!(98.30)!

Zimmerei,!Parketerie! ! O! 02:! Dachdecker,! Gipser,! Maler,!Hafner,!Plattenleger! ! O!

03:!

Spenglerei,!

Installationswerkstätten! with!AG!(without!AG)! Rationale:! This! table! test! the! method! applied! to! 1930! and! 1941! censuses! on! the! data! for! 1920,! for! which! the! exact! values!can!be!observed.! Note:!O!03!Argovia!(AG):! The!district!of!Baden!is!a!extreme!outlier!when!predicting!the!distribution!of!the!Spenglerei!industry!with!population! shares.!In!order!to!account!for!the!concentration!of!Spenglerei!workers!in!Baden!I!adopted!a!different!method!for!this! canton.!In!a!first!step!I!predicted!the!employment!of!all!districts!except!Baden!by!multiplying!the!1920!employment! with! the! districts! population! growth! and! the! change! of! the! ratio! sectoral! employment! to! population! at! the! national! level.!In!a!second!step!I!attributed!the!rest!of!the!cantonal!employment!to!the!district!of!Baden.! Table'25:'Evaluation'of'the'estimation'method'for'dispersed'services' Evaluation! of! the! method!

Average!error!(workers)!

with!1920!data! Advokaturbureaux!

Average!number!of!

R2!

workers! 3.7!

12.8!

97.49!

1.7!

8.4!

97.37!

13.6!

82.8!

98.14!

3.1!

11.3!

97.71!

! Notariate! ! Gesundheitswesen!! (275G278,280,281)! ! Apotheken!

Rationale:!This!table!test!the!method!applied!to!1930!and!1941!censuses!on!the!data!for!1920,!for!which!the!exact!


199!

! Table'26:'Seed'construction'methods'and'share'of'national'employment'of'the'concerned'industries' Method! ! 1930!data! 1941!data! ! 1929!maps! 1939!maps! ! 1930!population!share!+!5!cities! 1941!population!share!+!6!cities! ! 1929!30!cities!+!1920!data!! (1939!30!cities!+!1930!data)! ! 1920G1970!extrapolation! ! 1920!data! 1930!data! Total! '

!

'

Share!of!national!employment! 1930!

Share!of!national!employment! 1941!

29.5%! !

19.3%!

19.0%! !

20.2%!

15.5%! !

15.8%!

17.3%! !

17.7%!

0.7%!

0.8%!

18.0%! !

26.2%!

100.0%!

100.0%!

200!


Table'27:'Summary'statistics'Hanna-Kim'decomposition'for'Spanish'regions'calculated'from'Martinez'et'al.' Percentage!of!regions! Average!sectorGmix! Ratio! where!industry!mix! !! effect! Wage!effect! !wage!effect!/!sector!mix! dominates! 0.882! 1860! 0.075! 0.211! 2.83! 1900! 0.155! 0.170! 1.10! 0.529! 1930! 0.112! 0.167! 1.49! 0.706! 1940! 0.125! 0.095! 0.76! 0.471! 1950! 0.104! 0.092! 0.89! 0.353! 1960! 0.093! 0.108! 1.16! 0.529! 1970! 0.096! 0.093! 0.97! 0.529! 1980! 0.077! 0.075! 0.97! 0.588! 1990! 0.040! 0.066! 1.67! 0.882! 2000! 0.030! 0.113! 3.78! 0.882! SectorGmix! and! wage! effects! can! be! positive! or! negative.! In! (weighted)! average! positive! and! negative! values! compensate!each!other.!The!reported!averages!have!been!calculated!from!the!absolute!values!of!the!effects,!so!that! negative!and!positive!values!do!not!cancel!out.! Table'28:'Summary'statistics'Hanna-Kim'decomposition'of'regional'inequality'for'NUTS'II'regions'

!! 1860! 1870! 1880! 1888! 1900! 1910! 1920! 1930! 1941! 1970! 1980! 1991! 2001! 2005! 2008!

Average!industryGmix! effect! 0.032! 0.014! 0.016! 0.025! 0.015! 0.018! 0.031! 0.026! 0.015! 0.036! 0.025! 0.022! 0.032! 0.036! 0.040!

Average!sectorGmix!effect! 0.009! 0.013! 0.012! 0.033! 0.039! 0.034! 0.036! 0.041! 0.038! 0.025! 0.018! 0.014! 0.017! 0.015! 0.012!

Ratio! !industry!mix!/!sector! mix! 3.754! 1.044! 1.292! 0.751! 0.374! 0.516! 0.853! 0.645! 0.390! 1.440! 1.343! 1.537! 1.851! 2.379! 3.303!

Percentage!of!regions! where!industry!mix! dominates! 1.000! 0.286! 0.571! 0.286! 0.000! 0.143! 0.429! 0.286! 0.143! 0.571! 0.571! 0.571! 0.571! 0.714! 0.714!

Table'29:'Summary'statistics'Hanna-Kim'decomposition'for'BER'regions'

!

!! 1860! 1870! 1880! 1888! 1900! 1910! 1920! 1930! 1941! 1970! 1980! 1991! 2001! 2005! 2008!

Average!sectorGmix! effect! 0.018! 0.030! 0.031! 0.074! 0.066! 0.058! 0.064! 0.059! 0.055! 0.027! 0.019! 0.012! 0.022! 0.019! 0.018!

Average!industryGmix! effect! 0.041! 0.035! 0.026! 0.027! 0.017! 0.019! 0.042! 0.024! 0.015! 0.039! 0.029! 0.024! 0.050! 0.064! 0.066! '

Ratio! !industry!mix!/!sector! mix! 2.298! 1.175! 0.829! 0.196! 0.361! 0.251! 0.325! 0.659! 0.408! 0.279! 1.348! 1.319! 1.938! 2.230! 3.272!

Percentage!of!regions! where!industry!mix! dominates! 0.750! 0.563! 0.625! 0.250! 0.250! 0.250! 0.438! 0.313! 0.188! 0.500! 0.500! 0.625! 0.875! 0.938! 0.938!


201!

Table'30:'Akita'Inequality'decomposition'for'NUTS'II'regions,'1888-2008' !! ' Total'

!!

Primary! !!!

1860!

1870!

1880!

1988!NFP!

Regional'Inequality'

0.0007'

0.0003'

0.0002'

0.0007'

Regional!Inequality!

0.0001!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

GDP!share!

0.3709!

0.3612!

0.3163!

0.2840!

Contribution!to!inequality!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0030!

0.0011!

0.0005!

0.0001!

GDP!share!

0.3506!

0.3494!

0.3602!

0.3683!


0.0011!

0.0004!

0.0002!

0.0000!


0.0034!

0.0015!

0.0011!

0.0008!

GDP!share!

0.2786!

0.2894!

0.3235!

0.3477!


0.0009!

0.0004!

0.0004!

0.0003!

0.0020!

0.0008!

0.0005!

0.0003!

Secondary! Regional!Inequality! ! ! Tertiary! ! !!

WithinGsector!regional!inequality! BetweenGsector!inequality!

0.0088!

0.0298!

0.0400!

0.0707!

Overall'region-sector'inequality'

0.0109'

0.0307'

0.0406'

0.0710'

'

'

'

'

WithinGsector!component!

18.6%!

' 2.7%!

' 1.3%!

' 0.4%!

BetweenGsector!component!

81.4%!

97.3%!

98.7%!

99.6%!

'

'

'

'

' 292.3%!

' 315.3%!

1888!

!Components!of!overall!regionHsector!inequality! !

!WithinHsector!regional!inequality! ! (in!%!of!Total!regional!inequality)!

' 216.5%!

' 45.6%!

1900!

1910!

1920!

1930!

1941!

! !! ' Total'

!! Regional'Inequality'

0.0004'

0.0011'

0.0011'

0.0020'

0.0022'

0.0015'

Primary!


0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0001!

0.0001!

0.0000!

GDP!share!

0.2824!

0.2280!

0.1902!

0.1891!

0.1421!

0.1475!


0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0034!

0.0005!

0.0011!

0.0022!

0.0012!

0.0004!

!!!

Secondary! Regional!Inequality! GDP!share!

0.3732!

0.4033!

0.4167!

0.4644!

0.4091!

0.4414!

!


0.0013!

0.0002!

0.0005!

0.0010!

0.0005!

0.0002!

! Tertiary!


0.0007!

0.0006!

0.0006!

0.0015!

0.0006!

0.0004!

GDP!share!

0.3444!

0.3687!

0.3930!

0.3465!

0.4488!

0.4111!


0.0003!

0.0002!

0.0002!

0.0005!

0.0003!

0.0002!

0.0015!

0.0005!

0.0007!

0.0016!

0.0008!

0.0003!

! !!


0.0690!

0.0581!

0.0454!

0.0282!

0.0448!

0.0362!


0.0705'

0.0585'

0.0461'

0.0297'

0.0456'

0.0366'

'

'

'

'

'

'


2.2%!

' 0.8%!

' 1.5%!

' 5.2%!

' 1.7%!

' 0.9%!


97.8%!

99.2%!

98.5%!

94.8%!

98.3%!

99.1%!

'

'

'

'

'

'

' 425.2%!

' 40.3%!

' 61.4%!

' 79.4%!

' 34.1%!

' 23.1%!


!WithinHsector!regional!inequality! ! (in!%!of!Total!regional!inequality)! !

202!


! !! ' Total'

!!

Primary! !!!

1970!

1980!

1991!

2001!

2005!

2008!


0.0019'

0.0009'

0.0006'

0.0013'

0.0016'

0.0017'


0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

GDP!share!

0.0436!

0.0396!

0.0278!

0.0123!

0.0106!

0.0103!


0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0024!

0.0010!

0.0009!

0.0038!

0.0057!

0.0082!

GDP!share!

0.4664!

0.3919!

0.3228!

0.2952!

0.2834!

0.2882!


0.0011!

0.0004!

0.0003!

0.0011!

0.0016!

0.0024!


0.0003!

0.0003!

0.0002!

0.0011!

0.0015!

0.0016!

GDP!share!

0.4900!

0.5685!

0.6494!

0.6926!

0.7060!

0.7016!


0.0002!

0.0002!

0.0001!

0.0008!

0.0011!

0.0011!

0.0013!

0.0006!

0.0004!

0.0019!

0.0027!

0.0035!



0.0172!

0.0099!

0.0077!

0.0262!

0.0235!

0.0201!


0.0184'

0.0105'

0.0081'

0.0281'

0.0262'

0.0236'

'

'

'

'

'

'


6.8%!

' 5.7%!

' 4.9%!

' 6.8%!

' 10.3%!

' 14.8%!


93.2%!

94.3%!

95.1%!

93.2%!

89.7%!

85.2%!

'

'

'

'

'

'

' 67.6%!

' 67.8%!

' 70.5%!

' 145.2%!

' 169.5%!

' 199.7%!



! !

'


203!

Table'31:'Akita'Inequality'decomposition'for'BER'regions,'1888-2008' !! ' Total'

!!

Primary! !!!

1860!

1870!

1880!

1888!


0.0015'

0.0022'

0.0012'

0.0038'


0.0002!

0.0001!

0.0001!

0.0001!

GDP!share!

0.3709!

0.3612!

0.3163!

0.2840!


0.0001!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0044!

0.0039!

0.0015!

0.0004!

GDP!share!

0.3506!

0.3494!

0.3602!

0.3683!


0.0015!

0.0020!

0.0005!

0.0001!


0.0049!

0.0022!

0.0016!

0.0008!

GDP!share!

0.2786!

0.2894!

0.3235!

0.3477!


0.0014!

0.0006!

0.0005!

0.0003!

0.0030!

0.0020!

0.0011!

0.0005!



0.0088!

0.0298!

0.0400!

0.0707!


0.0118'

0.0318'

0.0411'

0.0712'

!Components!of!overall!regionHsector! ! inequality!

!

!

!

!


! 25.3%!

! 6.4%!

! 2.6%!

! 0.6%!


74.7%!

93.6%!

97.4%!

99.4%!

!

!

!

!

! 205.7%!

! 93.7%!

! 91.2%!

! 12.2%!

1888!

1900!

1910!

1920!

1930!

1941!

! ! WithinHsector!regional!inequality! (in!%!of!Total!regional!inequality)!

! !! ' Total'

!! Regional'Inequality'

0.0045'

0.0032'

0.0021'

0.0042'

0.0030'

0.0028'

Primary!


0.0004!

0.0004!

0.0003!

0.0004!

0.0003!

0.0002!

GDP!share!

0.2824!

0.2280!

0.1902!

0.1891!

0.1421!

0.1475!


0.0001!

0.0001!

0.0001!

0.0001!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0042!

0.0011!

0.0022!

0.0038!

0.0020!

0.0004!

! !!

Secondary! Regional!Inequality! GDP!share!

0.3732!

0.4033!

0.4167!

0.4644!

0.4091!

0.4414!

!


0.0016!

0.0004!

0.0009!

0.0018!

0.0008!

0.0002!

! Tertiary!


0.0008!

0.0007!

0.0006!

0.0017!

0.0006!

0.0005!

GDP!share!

0.3444!

0.3687!

0.3930!

0.3465!

0.4488!

0.4111!


0.0003!

0.0003!

0.0002!

0.0006!

0.0003!

0.0002!

WithinGsector!regional!inequality!

0.0020!

0.0008!

0.0012!

0.0024!

0.0012!

0.0004!

BetweenGsector!inequality!

0.0690!

0.0581!

0.0454!

0.0282!

0.0448!

0.0362!


0.0709'

0.0589'

0.0466'

0.0306'

0.0459'

0.0367'


!

!

!

!

!

!


! 2.8%!

! 1.4%!

! 2.6%!

! 7.9%!

! 2.5%!

! 1.1%!


97.2%!

98.6%!

97.4%!

92.1%!

97.5%!

98.9%!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! 43.9%!

! 25.2%!

! 57.6%!

! 57.9%!

! 38.3%!

! 15.2%!

!!!


204!


! !! ' Total'

!!

Primary! !!!

1970!

1980!

1991!

2001!

2005!

2008!


0.0026'

0.0012'

0.0007'

0.0023'

0.0031'

0.0033'


0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

GDP!share!

0.0436!

0.0396!

0.0278!

0.0123!

0.0106!

0.0103!


0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0000!

0.0044!

0.0017!

0.0012!

0.0055!

0.0104!

0.0141!

GDP!share!

0.4664!

0.3919!

0.3228!

0.2952!

0.2834!

0.2882!


0.0021!

0.0007!

0.0004!

0.0016!

0.0030!

0.0041!


0.0007!

0.0003!

0.0003!

0.0020!

0.0026!

0.0026!

GDP!share!

0.4900!

0.5685!

0.6494!

0.6926!

0.7060!

0.7016!


0.0003!

0.0002!

0.0002!

0.0014!

0.0019!

0.0018!

0.0024!

0.0010!

0.0006!

0.0030!

0.0048!

0.0059!



0.0172!

0.0099!

0.0077!

0.0262!

0.0235!

0.0201!


0.0196'

0.0109'

0.0083'

0.0291'

0.0283'

0.0260'


!

!

!

!

!

!


! 12.2%!

! 9.1%!

! 7.4%!

! 10.3%!

! 17.0%!

! 22.7%!


87.8%!

90.9%!

92.6%!

89.7%!

83.0%!

77.3%!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! 91.6%!

! 81.6%!

! 85.5%!

! 131.3%!

! 153.7%!

! 177.3%!

! ! WithinHsector!regional!inequality! (in!%!of!Total!regional!inequality)! ! !

!

'


205!

Figure'1:'Resemblance'indicator'MSR'–'MS'

Resemblance'

100! 80! 60! 40! 20! 0!

MSR'

! ! Figure'2:'National'value'added'per'worker'by'industry'in'1970'(current'CHF)'

! Sources:!Value!added!from!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!(Q.02);!employment!by!industry!from!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!or!from! my!employment!data!set.! !

206!


Figure'3:'National'value'added'per'worker'by'industry'in'1980'(current'CHF)'

! Sources:!Value!added!from!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!(Q.02);!employment!by!industry!from!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!or!from! my!employment!data!set.! ! Figure'4:'National'value'added'per'worker'by'industry'in'1990'(current'CHF)'

! Sources:!Value!added!from!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!(Q.02);!employment!by!industry!from!Sankt!Galler!Zentrum!or!from! my!employment!data!set.! ! ! !


207!

Figure'5:'Value'added'per'worker'by'industry'1860'to'1888'(current'CHF)'

! ! ! ! Map'1:'Swiss'cantons'and'districts'in'2000'

Legend cantons districts

!

!

208!


Map'2:'MS'Regions'and'BE'Regions'

Legend BE Regions MS regions

! ! Map'3:'Cantons'and'NUTSII'regions'

Legend Cantons NUTSII

! !


209!

Map'4:'Metropolitan'regions'and'NUTSII'regions'in'2000'

Metropolitan regions and NUTSII

! ! ! Map'5:'Districts,'MSR'and'BER' Legend MSR Districts

BER Name Aarau/Olten Basel Bellinzona Bern Biel-Bienne Chur Fribourg Genève Lausanne Lugano Luzern Neuchâtel Sion St. Gallen Winterthur/Schaffhausen Zürich

! !

210!


Map'6:'MSR’s'resemblance'to'MS' MSR Resemblance to MS 48 - 50 51 - 55 56 - 60 61 - 65 66 - 70 71 - 75 76 - 80 81 - 85 86 - 90 91 - 95 96 - 100

! !

!

! ! !

!

!

Growth'Poles:'! Agglomeration,Economies(and(Economic( Growth!in#Switzerland#from#1860#to#2008!

! Christian!Stohr! University!of!Geneva! Paul!Bairoch!Institute!for!Economic!History!

Abstract' !

This! paper! investigates! the! relation! between! agglomeration! and! economic! growth! in! Switzerland! from! 1860! to! 2008.! I! use! a! new! detailed! data! set! on! regional! employment,! value! added!and!labor!productivity!for!two!geographical!levels!with!97!and!16!regions!respectively.!I! provide! a! description! of! spatial! concentration! and! inequality! in! labor! productivity! over! the! entire!time!period!and!find!that!the!Swiss!economy!was!very!dispersed!around!1860!but!spatial! concentration! of! economic! activity! increased! rapidly! until! 1930.! Thereafter,! a! series! of! institutional! settings! limited! spatial! concentration.! Regional! inequality! in! terms! of! labor! productivity! followed! a! bellGshape! evolution! between! 1860! and! 1990! followed! by! a! new! upswing!in!regional!inequality!after!1990.!I!pursue!by!estimating!the!impact!of!agglomeration!on! labor!productivity!and!employment!growth!and!find!that!agglomeration!economies!contributed! significantly! to! regional! economic! growth! between! 1888! and! 1930.! Thereafter,! the! Great! Depression! and! regional! redistribution! policies! have! limited! the! effect! of! agglomeration! economies.! I! argue! that! rapid! urbanization! has! significantly! contributed! to! Switzerland’s! fast! growth!between!1860!and!1930,!while!antiGurban!policies!have!contributed!to!the!Swiss!growth! slack!after!1970.! ! !

'

214!

Christian!Stohr!/!Agglomeration!Economies!and!Economic!Growth!in!Switzerland,!1860G2008!

Introduction' This! paper! investigates! the! relation! between! agglomeration! and! economic! growth! in! Switzerland! from! 1860! to! 2008.! I! use! a! new! detailed! data! set! on! regional! employment,! value! added!and!labor!productivity!for!two!geographical!levels!with!97!and!16!regions!respectively.!I! provide! a! description! of! spatial! concentration! and! inequality! in! labor! productivity! over! the! entire!time!period!and!find!that!the!Swiss!economy!was!very!dispersed!around!1860!but!spatial! concentration! of! economic! activity! increased! rapidly! until! 1930.! Thereafter,! a! series! of! institutional! settings! limited! spatial! concentration.! Regional! inequality! in! terms! of! labor! productivity! followed! a! bellGshape! evolution! between! 1860! and! 1990! followed! by! a! new! upswing!in!regional!inequality!after!1990.!I!pursue!by!estimating!the!impact!of!agglomeration!on! labor!productivity!and!employment!growth!and!find!that!agglomeration!economies!contributed! significantly! to! regional! economic! growth! between! 1888! and! 1930.! Thereafter,! the! Great! Depression! and! regional! redistribution! policies! have! limited! the! effect! of! agglomeration! economies.! I! argue! that! rapid! urbanization! has! significantly! contributed! to! Switzerland’s! fast! growth!between!1860!and!1930,!while!antiGurban!policies!have!contributed!to!the!Swiss!growth! slack!after!1970.! In! Swiss! history,! regional! approaches! have! always! been! important.! This! is! a! consequence! of! Switzerland’s! topographic,! linguistic,! and! confessional! diversity,! as! well! as! its! federalist! structure.!Economic!historians!have!highlighted!differences!in!regional!production!systems!and! in! the! degrees! of! integration! into! world! markets! (Bergier! 1984;! Veyrassat! 1982;! Bernegger! 1990;!Humair!2004).!There!is!also!a!myriad!of!qualitative!studies!on!individual!industry!clusters! (Veyrassat) 1997;) KarrerGRüedi& 1992;& Pasquier& 2008;& Lecoq& et& al.& 1995).! And! several! atlases! visualize!the!spatial!concentration!of!different!Swiss!industries!(Fritzsche!et!al.!2001;!Schuler!et! al.! 1986;! Schuler! 2007).! However,! no! study! has! attempted! a! comprehensive! quantitative! evaluation!of!the!effect!of!agglomeration!on!economic!growth.!My!research!attempts!to!fill!this! gap.! The! Swiss! case! is! also! ideal! to! be! studied! because! agglomeration! patterns! were! still! rather! neutral! in! the! midG19th! century,! because! Switzerland! did! not! inherit! strong! urbanization! from! preGindustrial! development.! In! this! sense! Swiss! geography! was! less! distorted! and! the! mutual! effects!between!agglomeration!and!growth!could!unfold!more!easily!than!in!countries!with!very! large!cities!inherited!from!preGindustrial!times.! My! analysis! is! grounded! in! the! theoretical! and! empirical! literature! on! agglomeration! and! economic!growth.!Growth!theories!and!spatial!economics!share!a!number!of!common!epistemic! foundations! and! several! authors! have! highlighted! that! the! underlying! mechanisms! behind! agglomeration! and! economic! growth! might! well! be! the! same.! Agglomeration! and! economic! growth! have! also! coGevolved! in! the! very! long! run! historical! development.! The! emergence! of!


215!

modern! economic! growth! in! Europe,! roughly! between! 1750! and! 1850,! was! preceded! by! important! changes! in! the! structure! of! the! European! urban! network! between! 1650! and! 1750.! DeVries! insisted! on! these! structural! changes,! particularly! the! formation! of! a! modern! rankGsize! structure!(De!Vries!1984).!Bairoch!on!the!other!hand!insisted!on!the!impact!that!the!industrial! revolution! and! modern! economic! growth! had! on! the! urbanization! rate! and! the! size! of! cities! (Bairoch! 1985).! The! urban! history! literature! of! the! 1980s! has! often! highlighted! the! positive! relation! between! urbanization! and! economic! development! (Mumford! 1989;! Bairoch! 1985;! Wrigley! 1987;! Wrigley! 1990;! Hohenberg! 1990)! although! cities! were! also! qualified! as! parasitic! under! certain! circumstances! (Hoselitz! 1955).! This! literature! put! the! main! accent! on! the! modernizing! impact! that! urbanization! exerted! on! populations! and! on! Boserup’s! concept! of! creative!density,!according!to!which!population!density!can!generate!an!incentive!for!agricultural! development.! In! that! sense! urbanization! is! seen! to! have! contributed! to! the! agricultural! revolution.! Recently,!Allen!(2009)!has!reiterated!this!argument.!Like!Wrigley!he!also!identifies! urbanization! as! an! important! cause! of! the! British! industrial! revolution.! However,! in! Allen’s! argument! the! mechanism! relies! on! the! impact! of! the! urban! wage! premium! on! relative! factor! prices.! Since! the! late! 1980s,! economics! has! experienced! a! spatial! turn,! and! economic! history! has! also! taken! renewed! interest! in! geographical! topics.! However,! in! both! empirical! economics! and! in! historical! economic! geography! research! has! mainly! focused! on! static! questions! such! as! the! location!of!industry,!regional!inequality!or!on!adjustment!processes!such!as!the!impact!of!border! changes! and! declining! transportation! costs.! There! is! an! important! empirical! literature! on! agglomeration! economies 33 ,! but! few! studies! have! really! addressed! the! relation! between! agglomeration!and!growth.!A!few!studies,!though,!have!analyzed!the!effect!of!agglomeration!on! employment! growth! (Glaeser! et! al.! 1992;! Henderson! et! al.! 1995;! Henderson! 1997;! Combes! 2000a;! Combes! et! al.! 2004;! Frenken! et! al.! 2007).! Some! historical! studies! have! addressed! the! agglomerationGproductivity!nexus!in!a!particular!industry,!e.g.!in!the!Lancashire!cotton!industry! and!the!related!merchant!houses!(Broadberry!&!Marrison!2002;!Leunig!2003;!Broadberry!et!al.! 2009;! Balderston! 2010).! In! broader! perspective,! Broadberry! (2004)! attributes! UK’s! lasting! services! productivity! advantage! over! Germany! to! agglomeration! economies! due! to! superior! urbanization.! MartinezGGalarraga! et! al! (2008)! and! Combes! et! al! (2011)! measure! the! effect! of! agglomeration! on! productivity! in! Spain! and! France! from! the! midG19th! century! to! 2000.! Baten! (2003)!finds!evidence!for!a!positive!effect!of!agglomeration!on!firm!entry!in!Baden!around!1900;! and!Boschma!and!Wenting!(2007)!show!that!agglomeration!positively!affected!the!survival!rate! of!British!car!producers.!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 33 !Rosenthal!

literature.!

and! Strange! (2004)! and! Duranton! and! Puga! (2013)! provide! extensive! reviews! of! this!

216!


This! paper! contributes! to! a! better! understanding! of! agglomeration! and! economic! growth! in! general!and!assesses!the!impact!of!agglomeration!on!economic!growth!in!the!particular!context! of!Switzerland!since!1860.!Section!I!sets!the!theoretical!and!historical!context!and!presents!the! underlying!dataset!of!this!study.!Section!II!describes!the!evolution!of!spatial!economic!patterns! in!Switzerland!and!presents!a!number!of!institutional!settings!in!Switzerland!that!tended!to!limit! agglomeration.! Section! III! measures! the! impact! of! different! forms! of! agglomeration! on! productivity!levels,!productivity!growth,!and!employment!growth.!

Theoretical'background,'historical'context,'and'data' Agglomeration)and)growth)in)economic)theory) Economic!growth!and!agglomeration!are!related!phenomena.!Theories!of!economic!growth!and! spatial! economic! theories! share! a! number! of! common! foundations.! Neoclassical! economic! growth!models!rely!on!a!constant!returns!to!scale!production!function,!which!implies!decreasing! marginal! returns! to! factor! accumulation! and! convergence! to! a! steady! state! without! GDP! per! capita!growth!(Solow!1956).!Applied!to!regional!economies,!this!model!predicts!convergence!of! GDP!per!capita!and!productivity!levels!(Barro!&!SalaGiGMartin!1992).!Since!the!end!of!the!1980s,! new!growth!theories!have!been!developed!to!overcome!the!inability!of!the!neoclassical!growth! model!to!generate!endogenous!growth!in!the!long!term.!Increasing!returns!to!scale!are!the!main! ingredient!of!endogenous!growth!models.!They!allow!to!overcome!diminishing!marginal!returns! and!convergence!(Grossman!&!Helpman!1991).!! Theories! of! trade! and! geography! have! also! experienced! an! increasing! returns! revolution! (Krugman! 2009).! The! classical! HechscherGOhlin! model! of! trade! was! based! on! constant! returns! and!predicted!convergence!of!goods!and!factor!prices!through!trade.!Urban!economics!and!new! economic! geography! models,! on! the! other! hand,! rely! heavily! on! scale! economies.! In! urban! economics!positive!externalities!are!assumed!to!accrue!from!the!interaction!of!economic!agents.! However,! these! agglomeration! economies! are! counterbalanced! by! congestion! costs,! so! that! a! spatial! equilibrium! where! agents! have! no! incentive! to! move! ensues! (Glaeser! 2008).! In! new! economic! geography! models! decreasing! transport! costs! in! the! presence! of! scale! economies! trigger! demandGlinked! and! costGlinked! circular! causalities,! which! act! as! agglomeration! forces;! while! market! crowding! acts! as! a! dispersion! force.! At! high! levels! of! trade! costs! the! dispersion! force!dominates,!but!when!trade!costs!fall!the!dispersion!force!weakens!at!a!faster!rate!than!the! agglomeration!forces!so!that!industry!agglomerates.!Finally,!when!trade!costs!become!negligible,! agglomeration!forces!disappear!and!industry!will!eventually!reGdisperse.!The!consequence!is!a! bellGshaped!evolution!of!agglomeration!(Krugman!1991;!Baldwin!et!al.!2003).!


217!

Despite!the!common!epistemic!foundation!of!economic!growth!theories!and!spatial!economics,! the! relation! between! growth! and! agglomeration! has! not! been! studied! very! much.! Perroux! (1955)! noted! that! economic! growth! was! unevenly! distributed! in! space! and! elaborated! the! growthGpole! concept.! Punctually! innovation! gives! rise! to! rapid! growth! in! a! leading! industry,! which! through! external! economies! will! transmit! growth! to! a! wider! industrial! complex.! These! linkages!also!lead!to!spatial!concentration,!which!further!intensifies!economic!activity!within!the! growth! pole.! Economic! growth,! according! to! Perroux,! is! transmitted! from! innovative! growth! poles!to!the!more!passive!regions!of!an!economy.!According!to!Jacobs!(1969)!cities!function!as! the!main!generators!of!economic!growth!in!an!economy.!Her!account!of!particular!dynamics!that! arise!in!an!urban!economy!insists!mainly!on!the!benefits!from!the!diversity!of!urban!activities.! Lucas!(1988)!argues!that!the!externalities!on!which!his!growth!model!builds!must!in!reality!be! identical! to! those! externalities! that! lead! to! the! existence! of! cities,! namely! those! described! by! Jacobs.!! The!models!of!urban!growth!proposed!by!Black!and!Henderson!(1999)!and!Eaton!and!Eckstein! (1997)! build! on! human! capital! accumulation.! Both! models! introduce! an! agglomeration! effect,! the! former! in! the! utilization! of! human! capital! and! the! latter! in! its! accumulation.! In! the! first! model,!growth!increases!the!size!of!cities,!because!more!educated!people!move!to!larger!cities! where! they! benefit! from! human! capital! externalities.! The! dynamic! externalities! in! the! second! model!imply!that!larger!cities!grow!faster,!so!that!ultimately!growth!and!the!urban!system!are! completely! dominated! by! one! large! city! (Duranton! &! Puga! 2013).! Duranton! and! Puga! (2001)! provide! a! model! with! microGfoundations! for! innovation! in! diversified! cities! à! la! Jacobs.! Firms! innovate!by!testing!different!preGexisting!processes!for!the!production!of!a!new!good.!Innovation! takes! place! in! diversified! cities,! because! more! processes! are! available! there.! Once! a! firm! has! found! the! ideal! process,! it! will! relocate! to! a! specialized! city,! where! all! firms! use! the! same! production! process.! In! specialized! cities,! coGlocation! of! firms! that! use! the! same! production! process!generates!static!localization!economies!through!input!sharing.!! The! new! economic! geography! literature! has! also! developed! a! few! models! that! integrate! agglomeration!and!growth!(Baldwin!1999;!Martin!&!Ottaviano!1999;!Martin!&!Ottaviano!2001;! Baldwin!et!al.!2001;!Fujita!&!Thisse!2003;!Yamamoto!2003).!The!most!intuitive!of!these!models! is!the!localized!spillovers!model,!which!is!composed!of!three!sectors:!a!constant!returns!to!scale! agricultural! sector,! a! DixitGStiglitz! manufacturing! sector,! and! an! R&D! sector! with! localized! spillovers.!Growth!and!industry!location!are!endogenously!determined!and!influence!each!other.! The!usual!market!access!and!market!crowding!effects!are!complemented!with!a!spillover!effect,! which! operates! as! an! agglomeration! force! and! implies! that! agglomeration! permanently! increases! regional! and! national! growth! rates.! Hence,! agglomeration! accelerates! growth! and!

218!


growth! accelerates! agglomeration.! The! model! also! features! growth! poles! and! growth! sinks:! growth!is!generated!in!the!coreGregion!(Baldwin!et!al.!2003,!chap.7;!Baldwin!&!Martin!2004).!! In! all! the! models! integrating! agglomeration! and! economic! growth,! the! two! phenomena! are! mutually!reGenforcing.!In!models!with!dynamic!agglomeration!economies,!dense!regions!or!large! and! diversified! cities! function! as! growth! poles,! that! is! they! generate! faster! growth! and! under! certain!circumstances,!they!transmit!the!benefits!of!growth!to!surrounding!regions.!

Economic)growth,)market)integration,)and)urbanization)in)Switzerland,)1860>2008) Tables!1!and!2!provide!an!international!comparison!of!Swiss!GDP!per!capita!and!growth!rates.! The! Swiss! economy! experienced! a! major! growth! spurt! between! 1851! and! 1910.! During! this! period!Switzerland!caught!up!with!the!European!average!and!forged!ahead.!Growth!rates!were! spectacular!in!terms!of!GDP!and!GDP!per!capita,!particularly!between!1882!and!1910.!In!the!20th! century,!Swiss!growth!was!more!mitigated.!During!the!interwar!period!Switzerland!alternately! lost! and! regained! its! advance! over! the! Western! European! level.! GDP! per! capita! growth! was! average! during! the! postGwar! boom,! but! very! slow! after! 1973.! By! the! year! 2000! practically! the! entire! advance! over! the! Western! European! GDP! per! capita! level! was! eroded;! and! several! countries!overtook!Switzerland.!! One! of! the! characteristics! of! Switzerland’s! most! important! growth! period,! 1851G1910,! is! rapid! market!integration.!In!1835,!according!to!the!grain!price!data!presented!by!Chilosi!et!al.!(2013),! the! Helvetic! Confederation! was! one! of! the! least! integrated! regions! in! Europe.! But! during! the! second! half! of! the! century,! markets! have! integrated! rapidly.! With! the! formation! of! the! Swiss! Federal! state! in! 1848,! the! Helvetic! cantons! have! established! a! customs! union! (Humair! 2004).! Between! 1847! and! 1920,! Switzerland! has! developed! one! of! the! densest! railway! networks! in! Europe,! so! that! travel! times! have! been! divided! by! five! between! 1850! and! 1910! (Frey! 2006).! During!the!20th!century,!transport!costs!have!continued!to!fall,!but!cultural!and!cantonal!borders! probably!limited!market!integration.! In!parallel!with!rapid!market!integration,!Switzerland!underwent!rapid!urbanization!during!the! second!half!of!the!19th!century.!Table!3!reports!the!Swiss!urbanization!rate!from!1798!to!2010.! In!1798,!the!Swiss!urbanization!rate!was!very!low!even!compared!to!the!rates!observed!in!preG industrial! economies34.! In! 1850! the! rate! was! sill! very! low,! but! thereafter! it! increased! rapidly.! Columns!4!and!5!provide!two!different!measures!of!the!urbanization!process.!The!periods!1880G 1910! and! 1950G1970! stand! out! as! periods! of! rapid! urbanization.! The! comparison! of! these! measures! with! GDP! and! GDP! per! capita! growth! reveals! that! the! urbanization! and! growth! processes!were!strongly!correlated!in!Switzerland.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 34!According!to!Bairoch!(Bairoch!1999),!urbanization!rates!of!preGindustrial!economies!oscillated!between!

7!and!15%.!


219!

Data) The! dataset! used! in! this! paper! stems! from! Stohr! (2014b).! It! consists! of! employment! statistics,! GDP! estimates,! and! labor! productivity! for! two! different! geographical! levels:! 97! micro! regions! (MSR,! indexed! m)! and! 16! large! labor! market! regions! (BER,! indexed! r)! that! cover! the! whole! territory! of! Switzerland.! These! are! functional! regions,! which! are! comparable! in! terms! of! area.! Although!alpine!regions!are!generally!larger,!which!compensates!for!the!fact!that!they!include!a! larger! proportion! of! rugged! terrain.! Concentration! in! MSR! regions! captures! the! urbanization! process,!while!BER!regions!allow!for!a!focus!on!regional!differences.!However,!even!BER!regions! remain! relatively! small! in! European! comparison:! they! are! comparable! to! Eurostat’s! NUTSIII! level.!!! The! employment! statistics! are! detailed! by! industry:! 19! industries! for! 1860! to! 1888,! 54! industries! for! 1888! to! 2000;! and! 50! industries! for! 1991! to! 2008.! All! classifications! have! been! harmonized! so! that! the! aggregates! are! timeGconsistent! and! comparable! longitudinally. 35 .! Commuting! workers! are! counted! in! the! region! of! workplace! (not! residency),! commuters! from! abroad! and! seasonal! workers! are! included,! but! workers! who! live! in! Switzerland! but! work! abroad!are!excluded.!! Regional! GDP! was! estimated! by! combining! detailed! employment! data! with! different! series! of! value! added! by! industry.! The! series! is! composed! of! four! segments:! 1860G1888,! 1888G1941,! 1970G1990,!and!1991G2008.!Growth!rates!are!always!calculated!within!these!segments!in!order! to!prevent!errors!that!might!be!induced!by!differences!in!measurement.!An!exception!was!made! for! the! period! 1941G1970,! where! data! sources! did! not! overlap.! However,! since! this! is! a! much! longer! period,! which! moreover! is! characterized! by! fast! growth! error! margins! must! be! very! small.!The!main!shortcomings!of!these!estimates!are!that!they!do!not!account!for!intraGindustry! productivity! differences! between! regions.! However,! it! has! been! shown! in! several! studies! on! regional! inequality! that! these! differences! are! small! compared! to! the! productivity! differentials! induced!by!industryGmix!(Akita!et!al.!2011;!MartínezGGalarraga!et!al.!forthcoming;!Stohr!2014b).! Also,! intraGindustry! productivity! differentials! tend! to! reGenforce! rather! than! compensate! the! differentials!induced!by!differences!in!industryGmix,!so!that!my!measures!of!regional!inequality! can!be!understood!as!lower!bound!estimates.!

Spatial'patterns'of'employment,'GDP,'and'labor'productivity' In!this!section!I!analyze!the!spatial!concentration!of!employment,!GDP,!and!labor!productivity.!In! a! seminal! paper,! Williamson! argued! that! regional! inequality! follows! a! bellGshaped! curve! along! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 35!The! considered! dates! are! 1860,! 1870,! 1880,! 1888,! 1900,! 1910,! 1920,! 1930,! 1941,! 1970,! 1980,! 1990,!

1991,!2001,!2005,!and!2008.!

220!


the!process!of!national!development.!His!empirical!work!relied!on!both!a!crossGsection!analysis! of! countries! at! different! stages! of! development! and! time! series! analysis! of! regional! inequality! within!US!states!and!counties.!Recently,!the!existence!of!a!bellGshaped!curve!has!been!confirmed! for! Spain! (MartínezGGalarraga! et! al.! forthcoming),! US! regions! (Kim! 1998),! and! Italy! (Felice! 2010).! Combes! et! al.! (2011)! find! monotonous! labor! productivity! convergence! between! French! departments! and! regions.! Enflo! et! al.! (2010)! find! convergence! between! Swedish! regions! from! 1855! to! 1980.! In! the! case! of! Italy! and! Sweden! regional! labor! productivity! has! again! diverged! after!1980.!

Methodology:)Theil)index) Different! indicators! have! been! used! to! measure! spatial! concentration,! among! which! the! most! commonly!used!are!the!Herfindahl!index,!the!Gini!coefficient!and!the!Theil!index.!The!Theil!index! has! the! advantage! to! be! decomposable! into! several! components,! e.g.! different! geographical! levels.!Therefore!it!suits!this!study!particularly!well.!The!spatial!Theil!index!for!aggregate!microG regional!employment!is!defined!as!follows:! !=

!! ! !!! !

ln

!! !

− ln

!

!!

!

(1),!

where! index!!! !refers! to! microGregional! employment! and!!!to! national! employment.! M=97! is! the! total! number! of! microGregions.! The! maximum! value! of! T,! i.e.! a! situation! where! all! labor! would!be!employed!in!one!microGregion!is!equal!to!ln(M)=4.575.!In!the!case!of!evenly!distributed! employment,!the!Theil!index!would!be!equal!to!zero.!This!Theil!index!can!be!decomposed!into!a! betweenGBER!component!and!a!withinGBER!component:! ! = !! + !!

!!

(2).!

with!! !! =

! !! !!! ! !!

!,!

where!

!! =

!! !! !!!,!∈! !!

ln

!! !!

− ln

! !!

!(3)!

and! !! =

! !!!

ln

!! !

− ln

!! !

!(4).!

Index!!!refers! to! BER! regions! (R=16)! and!!! !is! the! number! of! MSR! regions! that! compose! BER! region!!.! The! spatial! Theil! index! for! GDP! is! defined! analogously! using! GDP:!!!instead! of!!,!!! ! instead! of!!! ,! and!!! !instead! of!!! .! An! index! of! regional! inequality! in! labor! productivity! is! obtained! if! one! replaces! also! each! region’s! share! in! the! number! of! regions! by! its! employment! share:!!!instead!of!!!and!!! !instead!of!!! .!

The)concentration)of)employment)and)GDP) Columns! 1! to! 6! of! Table! 4! report! the! spatial! Theil! indices! of! employment! and! GDP.! Note,! that! both!indices!remained!always!far!below!the!maximum!possible!level!of!4.575.!In!2008,!the!Theil! indices!amounted!to!roughly!14%!of!the!maximum!level.!Compared!to!the!spatial!Theil!index!of!


221!

GDP! for! French! departments! presented! in! Combes! et! al.! (2011),! which! amounts! to! 37%! of! its! maximum!level!in!2000,!Switzerland!appears!to!be!a!very!dispersed!economy!indeed36.!Also,!in! the!Swiss!case,!the!between!component!is!relatively!small!compared!to!the!within!component,! i.e.! urbanization! has! been! the! dominant! form! of! spatial! concentration! not! regional! divergence.! Generally! the! spatial! Theil! index! of! GDP! was! higher! than! that! of! employment,! i.e.! productivity! differentials!reGenforced!the!spatial!concentration!of!labor.! Clearly,! the! Swiss! economy! was! very! dispersed! in! 1860.! But! after! 1880,! spatial! concentration! has! increased! rapidly.! The! increase! was! mainly! driven! by! the! within! component.! In! fact! the! between! component! first! stagnated,! while! the! within! component! started! to! increase.! Also! concentration!occurred!first!in!GDP!and!then!in!employment.!This!observation!is!valid!for!both! components.! The! sequence! –! first! within! then! between! and! first! GDP! then! employment! –! fits! well! with! the! growth! pole! concept,! i.e.! initially! denser! regions! generate! growth! through! structural! change! or! technological! progress! before! generating! more! labor! and! transmitting! growth! to! surrounding! regions.! An! increase! in! the! spatial! Theil! of! GDP! without! a! concomitant! increase! in! employment! indicates! that! structural! change! toward! higher! value! added! sectors! occurred! in! regions! with! higher! GDP! or! that! industries! that! were! located! in! such! regions! experienced!faster!productivity!growth.!! The! Great! Depression! of! the! 1930s! represents! an! intermezzo! in! the! concentration! movement.! The!crisis!has!more!directly!affected!the!exportGoriented!sectors!and!regions,!reducing!thereby! regional! divergence! (RitzmannGBlickenstorfer! 1997).! During! the! postGwar! boom,! spatial! concentration!accelerated!again,!but!this!time!the!between!component!increased!more!rapidly.! Between! 1970! and! 1990! concentration! stagnated! and! even! decreased! temporarily.! Only! the! between! component! of! employment! concentration! has! increased! slightly,! while! the! within! component!of!employment!and!both!components!of!GDP!concentration!decreased.!Since!1991,! GDP! has! again! concentrated! with! respect! to! both! components,! but! employment! concentrated! only!little!and!only!between!BER!regions.! Figure!1!presents!the!evolution!of!the!spatial!Theil!index!of!those!manufacturing!industries!that! registered!the!highest!growth!rates!between!1888!and!1930.!With!the!exception!of!cement!and! asphalt,! the! graphical! industry,! and! installation! of! water,! air,! and! electricity! these! industries! were! highly! localized! in! 1888.! The! general! tendency! was! dispersion,! with! the! exception! of! the! chemical!industry,!which!concentrated!after!1930,!and!the!graphical!industry,!which!followed!a! bellGshape.!This!is!well!in!line!with!Perroux’s!growth!pole!concept.!Innovation!and!fast!growing! industries!appear!in!a!particular!location!and!spread!out!from!there.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 36!The!

comparison! is! only! indicative,! because! Combes! et! al.! analyze! a! higher! geographical! level!:! the!

average!French!department!is!15!times!larger!than!the!average!MSR!region!of!my!dataset.!

222!


Figure! 2! presents! the! same! graph! for! mature! manufacturing! industries.! With! the! exception! of! textile!refinement,!other!textiles!and!watchmaking,!these!industries!were!rather!dispersed.!The! general! trend! was! toward! increasing! concentration.! Many! of! these! industries! were! initially! artisanal! occupations,! but! have! then! become! mechanized! and! concentrated! in! space! as! scale! economies! were! being! realized.! Figure! 3! shows! the! spatial! Theil! index! for! services.! Several! graphs!show!a!bellGshaped!curve.!This!is!in!line!with!the!predictions!of!new!economic!geography! models!(Krugman!1992;!Fujita!et!al.!2001).!

Regional)inequality)in)labor)productivity) Columns!7!to!9!of!table!4!report!the!Theil!index!of!regional!inequality!in!labor!productivity.!No! theoretical! maximum! exists! for! this! index,! but! a! comparison! with! the! index! for! the! French! departments! presented! by! Combes! et! al.! (2011)! reveals! that! the! maximum! regional! inequality! observed! in! Switzerland! around! 1900! is! comparable! to! the! minimum! among! French! departments! in! 2000.! Regional! inequality! in! Switzerland! was! dominated! by! the! within! component,! i.e.! the! differences! between! the! main! urban! centers! and! their! surrounding! microG regions!were!more!important!than!the!differences!between!the!main!centers.!! The!evolution!of!the!index!in!time!followed!a!bellGshaped!curve.!This!pattern!is!very!robust,!since! it!appears!not!only!in!the!overall!index!but!also!in!both!components!reported!in!table!4.!A!bellG shaped! evolution! is! also! discernable! within! many! BER! regions! (figures! 3! and! 4).! This! bellG shaped! trajectory! corroborates! the! results! of! several! studies! on! other! countries! (Williamson! 1965;!MartínezGGalarraga!et!al.!forthcoming;!Felice!2010;!Kim!1998).!It!contrasts,!however,!with! the! findings! of! Combes! et! al! (2011)! and! Enflo! et! al! (Enflo! et! al.! 2010),! who! find! continuous! convergence! of! labor! productivity! among! French! and! among! Swedish! regions.! Note! also! that! after! 1990! regional! labor! productivity! has! again! diverged.! This! divergence! occurred! in! both! components!but!also!within!several!BER!regions!separately.!A!similar!divergence!at!the!end!of! the!20th!century!was!also!observed!by!Enflo!et!al!(2010)!and!Felice!(2010).!

Dispersion)policies) In!general,!concentration!was!rapid!between!1880!and!1930!and!slowed!down!thereafter.!This! was!partially!due!to!the!trend!towards!subGurbanization,!which!occurred!in!most!countries!after! 1970,! but! it! was! also! related! to! a! series! of! institutional! developments! after! 1930! that! have! accentuated! urban! sprawl! and! limited! geographical! concentration! at! the! BER! level.! These! developments!are!increased!tax!competition!at!the!cantonal!and!local!level,!fiscal!transfers!from! rich!to!poor!cantons,!tax!exemption!of!commuter!costs,!and!cantonal!protectionism.! Tax!collecting!has!always!been!very!decentralized!in!Switzerland.!Direct!tax!collection!was!in!the! competency!of!the!cantons!and!municipalities,!while!the!Federal!state!relies!mostly!on!indirect! taxes.!During!the!entire!20th!century,!cantons!and!municipalities!accounted!for!more!than!60%!


223!

of! public! spending! (Guex! 2012,! p.1079).! However,! after! the! Great! Depression! and! during! the! second!half!of!the!century,!tax!competition!among!cantons!has!intensified.!Several!cantons,!that! are! located! close! to! urban! centers! adopted! a! taxGhaven! strategy! in! order! to! attract! wealthy! inhabitants!and!companies!from!the!main!urban!centers.!Feld!and!Krichgässner!have!shown!that! citizens,! in! particular! wealthy! ones,! choose! their! place! of! residency! considering! cantonal! and! local! tax! rates! (Feld! &! Kirchgässner! 2001).! Similar! effects! might! also! operate! for! firms.! An! additional!incentive!to!urban!sprawl!arose!from!the!fact!that!commuting!costs!can!be!deduced! from!taxable!income.!! A! series! of! transfer! payments! between! cantons! have! been! institutionalized! during! the! second! half! of! the! 20th! century.! In! 1947,! an! amendment! of! the! Federal! constitution! attributed! the! responsibility! to! intervene! in! favor! of! economically! threatened! regions! of! Switzerland! to! the! Federal!state.!On!this!basis!a!series!of!criteria!were!elaborated!to!define!mountain!regions!that! should! benefit! from! subsidies! (Investitionshilfegesetz! 1974).! But! these! criteria! were! not! very! exclusive!so!that!already!in!1950!more!than!one!third!of!all!municipalities!were!included!in!the! group!of!beneficiaries!(Walter!2011).!In!1958,!a!redistributive!transfersystem!(Finanzausgleich)! between!the!cantons!was!introduced!to!improve!the!financial!situation!of!cantons!with!weaker! economic! foundations.! Alpine! regions! and! declining! industrial! cantons! were! the! main! beneficiaries! of! this! system,! while! the! cantons! with! the! largest! metropolitan! regions! were! net! contributors.! In! reaction! to! the! crisis,! the! Federal! state! defined! a! program! aiming! to! subsidize! suffering! industrial! regions! (Finanzbeihilfe! zugunsten! wirtschaftlich! bedrohter! Regionen! 1978).! This! program! was! also! extended! several! times,! so! that! by! the! year! 2001! 1133! of! the! 2896! municipalities! were! part! of! the! program! (Schuler! et! al.! 2005).! The! large! number! of! municipalities! covered! by! these! programs! shows! that! redistribution! was! not! limited! to! the! weakest! most! necessitating! regions! but! that! middleGrange! regions! also! benefitted! to! a! large! extent,!while!the!burden!of!these!transfers!was!imposed!on!the!top!urban!centers.!On!the!other! hand,! no! transfer! system! compensated! these! urban! centers! for! the! functions! of! centrality! that! they! assumed.! This! antiGurban! institutional! setting! was! also! the! consequence! of! a! deeply! anchored! “Grossstadtkritik”! that! dominated! Swiss! mentality! and! political! discourse! in! the! 20th! century!(Walter!2013).!In!sum,!these!institutions!have!significantly!contributed!to!level!out!the! Swiss! urban! network.! This! might! well! have! limited! the! growth! generating! capacity! of! Swiss! growth!poles.!!

Agglomeration'economies' The!concept!of!agglomeration!economies!designates!the!fact!that!firms!or!workers!benefit!from! the!spatial!proximity!to!other!firms!or!workers.!Typically,!the!benefit!is!assumed!to!materialize! in! form! of! higher! productivity! and! wages.! The! microGeconomic! mechanisms! responsible! for!

224!


these!benefits!can!be!summarized!in!three!groups:!sharing,!matching,!or!learning!(Duranton!&! Puga! 2004);! and! they! can! impact! on! different! production! factors:! typically! labor,! human! or! physical!capital,!intermediate!goods,!or!technology.!The!scope!of!agglomeration!economies!can! vary! with! respect! to! three! dimensions:! geographical! distance,! relatedness! between! industries,! and!persistence!in!time!(Rosenthal!&!Strange!2004).!! The!first!dimension!refers!to!the!fact!that!the!incidence!of!agglomeration!economies!can!peterG out! more! or! less! quickly! as! distance! increases.! In! theory,! one! should! use! geoGreferenced! firmG level! data.! However,! in! practice! such! data! is! rarely! available37,! so! that! most! studies! make! abstraction! of! the! geographical! dimension! and! consider! all! firms! in! a! region! as! located! on! one! point,! whereas! economic! activity! of! other! regions! is! assumed! to! have! no! impact.! Strategies! to! incorporate!the!geographical!dimension!could!be!the!introduction!of!spatial!lags,!an!analysis!of! different! geographical! levels! or! the! inclusion! of! foreign! market! potential! as! an! explanatory! variable.! The! industry! dimension! is! related! to! interactions! within! or! between! different! sectors.! Benefits! from!coGlocation!can!accrue!to!all!firms!or!workers!of!a!region!independently!of!the!industry!in! which!they!are!active!(urbanization!economies)!or!they!can!be!effective!only!within!a!particular! industry! (localization! economies).! Internal! scale! economies! can! be! understood! as! an! extreme! case! of! localization! economies,! where! benefits! are! not! only! industryGspecific! but! even! firmG specific.!Another!type!of!agglomeration!economies!is!commonly!known!as!Jacobs!externalities.! Jacobs! stressed! the! idea! that! innovation! accrues! from! crossGfertilization! between! different! industries!(Jacobs!1969).! The! time! dimension! refers! to! the! question! if! agglomeration! has! an! instantaneous! effect! or! if! benefits! are! realized! after! a! certain! time! lag.! More! generally,! this! dimension! also! includes! the! distinction!between!static!and!dynamic!agglomeration!economies,!i.e.!if!agglomeration!increases! just!the!level!of!productivity!or!if!it!has!an!impact!on!its!growth!rate.! My! dataset! allows! for! the! analysis! of! all! three! dimensions! to! a! certain! extent,! since! it! includes! two! geographical! levels,! employment! data! by! industry,! and! multiple! observations! over! 148! years.!! In! this! section! I! measure! the! impact! of! different! forms! of! agglomeration! on! productivity,! productivity! growth,! and! employment! growth.! The! specifications! I! use! owe! a! lot! to! the! methodological! considerations! of! Combes! and! coGauthors! (Combes! 2000b;! Combes! 2000a;! Combes,!Duranton,!et!al.!2011).!As!dependent!variables!I!use!the!natural!logarithm!of!aggregate! regional!labor!productivity!expressed!in!relative!terms!to!the!national!level:!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 37!Exceptions!are!Duranton!and!Overman!(Duranton!&!Overman!2005;!Duranton!&!Overman!2008).!


!"#$%! =

!"#! !! !"# !

225!

!(5);!

annual!geometric!growth!rates!of!labor!productivity:! !"#!,!!!

!/!

!!,!!! !"#!,! !!,!

!"#! =

−1

!(6);!

and!annual!geometric!growth!rates!of!employment:! !"! =

!!,!!!

!/!

!!,!

−1

!(7).!

!

Agglomeration)and)productivity)in)Switzerland) A!widely!used!indicator!for!agglomeration!is!employment!density:! !"#$! =

!! !!

!(8),!

that!is!the!number!of!employees!per!square!km!of!solid!ground.!Note!that!variables!(5)!to!(7)!can! be! interpreted! in! terms! of! density! as! well,! however,! the! term!!! !was! dropped! from! these! equations!since!it!appears!in!the!numerator!and!the!denominator.!Table!5!provides!the!results!of! a! baseline! specification! that! measures! the! partial! correlation! between! agglomeration! and! regional!productivity!levels!including!BER!dummies!and!time!fixed!effects.!I!run!a!regression!for! each!time!period!in!order!to!evaluate!how!agglomeration!economies!have!developed!along!the! Swiss! growth! trajectory.! In! order! to! make! the! results! easily! comparable! across! periods,! regressions! are! presented! by! rows.! All! variables! are! logGtransformed! so! that! the! estimated! parameters! can! be! interpreted! as! elasticities.! Here! we! are! mainly! interested! in! the! within! component!of!regional!labor!productivity!differentials.!Hence,!I!introduce!also!dummies!for!the! 16!BER!regions.! For!all!periods!the!estimated!elasticity!is!positive!and!significant.!The!lowest!estimate!of!0.027!in! 1860! corresponds! to! a! situation,! where! doubling! the! density! of! a! region! increases! labor! productivity! by! 1.9%! (2! = 2!.!"# ).! In! 1900,! when! agglomeration! economies! were! strongest,! doubling!the!density!of!a!region!would!have!resulted!in!a!productivity!rise!of!7.3%.!On!average,! these! parameters! are! well! in! line! with! the! estimates! found! in! the! literature! on! urbanization! economies,! which! vary! between! 3! and! 8%! (Rosenthal! &! Strange! 2004).! Contemporaneous! studies! usually! report! estimates! between! 5! and! 6%! (Ciccone! &! Hall! 1996,! p.62;! Ciccone! 2002,! p.222;! Combes! et! al.! 2008,! p.738).! Pooling! observations! from! French! departments! for! three! periods! (1860,! 1930,! and! 2000)! and! three! sectors! (agriculture,! manufacturing,! and! services),! Combes!et!al!(2011,!p.254)!find!an!estimate!of!0.08!(doubling!density!increases!productivity!by! 5.7%).! MartinezGGalarraga! et! al! (2008)! analyze! Spanish! provinces! from! 1860! to! 1999.! Their! estimate!is!highest!between!1860!and!1900!(0.082)!and!decreases!thereafter.!!

226!


Compared! to! these! estimates! agglomeration! economies! seem! to! have! been! very! weak! in! Switzerland!until!1870,!but!they!have!increased!very!rapidly!thereafter!reaching!a!peak!level!in! 1900!and!remaining!high!until!1930.!During!the!period!1930!to!1990!the!effect!of!agglomeration! economies! has! constantly! decreased! falling! again! to! a! comparatively! low! level.! Rising! sharply! after!1991,!agglomeration!economies!were!again!strong!in!the!early!21st!century.!This!evolution! suggests! that! the! rapid! buildGup! of! agglomeration! economies! contributed! to! productivity! increases!during!Switzerland’s!most!important!growth!period,!namely!the!second!half!of!the!19th! century,! whereas! the! declining! impact! of! agglomeration! economies! had! a! depressing! effect! during!most!of!the!20th!century,!when!the!Swiss!growth!performance!was!more!mitigated.!! Joining! the! annual! observations! to! form! a! regionGtime! panel! allows! estimating! average! effects! over! longer! time! periods.! These! panel! regressions! are! presented! at! the! bottom! of! the! table.! I! include!again!BER!dummies!in!order!to!estimate!the!effects!of!concentration!within!BER!regions.! In! order! to! abstract! from! general! business! cycles,! I! also! include! time! fixed! effects.! On! average,! over!the!entire!time!period,!I!find!an!elasticity!of!0.069,!i.e.!a!region!with!twice!as!many!workers! per!square!kilometer!had!a!4.9%!higher!productivity!level.!The!last!four!lines!present!the!results! for! subGperiod! panel! regressions.! The! baseline! story! is! as! follows:! agglomeration! economies! were! weak! before! 1888,! strong! between! 1888! and! 1930,! medium! from! 1941! to! 1990,! and! stronger! again! in! the! early! 21st! century.! This! pattern! will! show! up! several! times! in! following! analyses.!So!let’s!summarize!it!as!the!NGshape!evolution.! As!mentioned!above,!different!types!of!agglomeration!economies!can!be!distinguished.!In!table!6! I! include! three! additional! variables:! area,! specialization,! and! diversity.! Since! the! latter! two! variables!refer!to!economic!structure,!I!focus!at!the!sector!level.!Ideally,!one!would!like!to!focus! at! more! detailed! industries.! However,! I! do! not! have! regional! productivity! estimates! for! industries38.! I! also! limit! my! analysis! to! manufacturing! and! services.! This! is! standard! in! the! literature,! since! agglomeration! economies! do! not! seem! to! operate! in! agriculture.! Combes! et! al! (2011)!is!the!only!study!I!am!aware!of,!which!includes!agriculture.!They!find!a!negative!impact! of!density!on!agricultural!productivity.! The! variable!!! !(area)! is! simply! the! solidGground! surface! of! the! region! in! square! kilometers.! This! measure! is! complementary! to! employment! density.! Increasing! the! area! of! a! region! while! holding!its!employment!density!constant!augments!the!absolute!number!of!employed!persons!in! the!region.!Hence!density!measures!the!proximity!of!workers,!while!the!variable!area!captures! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 38 !I!

am! not! aware! of! any! historical! study! using! comprehensive! regional! productivity! estimates! for!

industries.!Broadberry!and!Marrison!concentrate!on!a!single!industry!and!region,!the!Lancashire!Cotton! industry.!They!use!local!wages!as!a!proxy!for!productivity.!Combes!et!al!(2011),!the!only!historical!study! that! estimates! a! similar! specification! for! more! than! one! industry,! are! also! limited! to! sectoral! data.! Even! their!diversity!measure!relies!on!sectoral!data!only,!while!mine!is!based!on!a!dataset!with!54!industries.!!


227!

the!size!of!the!total!regional!worker!pool.!Both,!proximity!and!size!tend!to!increase!the!number! of!potentially!beneficial!interactions!within!a!region.!Note!that!both!variables!capture!a!net!effect! of! agglomeration.! Density! has! a! positive! thickGmarket! effect! and! a! negative! crowding! effect.! Land,!office,!and!housing!rents!tend!to!be!higher!in!denser!regions.!This!can!reduce!value!added.! For!a!coreGperiphery!model!with!crowding!see!Helpman!(1998).!Area!has!a!positive!size!effect! and!a!negative!transportationGcost!effect.!Transportation!costs!increase!with!the!distance.!This! attenuates!the!positive!effect!of!a!larger!worker!pool.!The!transportationGcost!effect!is!equivalent! to!congestion!in!the!classical!monocentricGcity!model!(Alonso!1964;!Muth!1970;!Mills!1972).! Localization!economies!are!captured!by!specialization:! !"#$!,! =

!!,! !! !! !

!(9).!

The!specialization!index!is!normalized!by!the!corresponding!value!for!the!national!level!in!order! to!allow!for!comparison!and!pooling!of!the!two!sectors.!Note!that!this!variable!is!also!normalized! implicitly!with!respect!to!the!surface!of!the!region.!Again,!since!!! !appears!on!both!sides!of!the! fraction!it!can!be!dropped.!Holding!density!and!area!constant!an!increase!of!the!variable!spec!is! equivalent!to!an!increase!in!the!size!of!the!sector.!! Jacobs! externalities! are! captured! by! the! industrial! diversity! to! which! a! sector! is! exposed.! I! quantify!this!with!the!following!entropy!measure:! !"#!,! =

!! ! !!,!! !!!! !! !!"! ! !,!! ! ! !!! !!" !!!! ! !!!

!,!

with!

!! = ! ∉ !

!(10)!

Index!! ! !stands! for! industries! that! are! not! part! of! sector! s.! The! numerator! of! this! expression! measures!industryGlevel!diversity!of!regional!employment!among!all!industries!except!those!that! belong!to!s.!The!denominator!is!the!same!measure!for!the!national!level.!Note!that!specialization! and! diversity! are! not! necessarily! antagonistic! in! this! specification.! Specialization! captures! the! effect!of!the!size!of!a!sector!on!its!productivity,!while!diversity!measures!the!variety!of!the!rest!of! the! economy.! For! example,! a! region! can! be! very! specialized! in! manufacturing! and! at! the! same! time!present!a!lot!of!variety!among!the!industries!of!the!agricultural!and!service!sectors.!! I! include! again! BER! dummies! and! time! fixed! effects.! In! the! specification! where! manufacturing! and! services! are! pooled,! I! also! include! sector! fixed! effects.! Hence! the! estimates! correspond! to! withinGeffects!of!different!types!of!agglomeration.!! The!density!elasticities!of!the!pooled!model!can!be!compared!to!those!in!the!bottom!of!table!5.! The! model! in! table! 5! includes! all! effects! of! density! on! productivity,! while! the! model! in! table! 6!

228!


captures!only!within!sector!effects39.!The!fact!that!the!elasticities!in!table!6!are!much!lower!than! those!in!table!5!suggests!that!a!large!part!of!the!productivity!advantage!of!dense!regions!stems! from! betweenGsector! productivity! differences.! Hence,! denser! regions! have! higher! productivity! because! they! have! more! services.! Note! that! the! difference! between! the! two! measures! has! diminished!over!time:!before!1888!withinGsector!agglomeration!economies!were!practically!non! existent;!between!1888!and!1990!they!were!about!half!as!important!as!the!overall!estimates!of! table!5;!whereas!after!1990!the!estimates!of!table!6!are!much!closer!to!those!of!table!5.!During! this! period! the! density! effect! operated! mainly! within! services.! The! evolution! of! the! density! elasticity! in! time! exhibits! again! our! NGshape,! which! was! probably! induced! by! the! dispersion! policies!presented!in!the!last!section.! Area!size!had!no!effect!before!1888.!Thereafter!the!impact!was!significant!but!smaller!than!that! of! density.! In! the! pooled! model! the! effect! remained! constant! over! time.! However,! this! hides! diverging!evolutions!in!the!two!sectors.!Let’s!turn!to!sectoral!evolutions!of!the!density!and!the! area! elasticities.! The! density! elasticity! followed! the! NGshape! evolution! in! manufacturing! but! experienced! a! continuous! increase! in! services.! By! opposition,! the! area! elasticity! increased! in! manufacturing! and! followed! the! NGshape! in! services.! It! seems! reasonable! to! assume! that! manufacturing!is!more!sensitive!to!crowding!(it!is!more!land!intensive),!while!services!are!more! sensitive!to!transport!distance!(they!are!not!tradable).!A!possible!interpretation!is!the!following:! Dispersion! policies! mighty! have! reGenforced! crowding! by! pulling! away! resources! from! dense! regions! but! compensated! transport! costs! by! attributing! benefits! to! more! peripheral! municipalities!for!example!to!create!industrial!zones.!In!manufacturing!this!would!have!reduced! the! productivity! effect! of! density! but! reinforced! the! area! effect.! For! services! the! pullingGout! of! manufacturing!from!dense!areas!may!temporarily!have!reduced!crowding!and!increased!thereby! the!density!effect,!but!at!the!same!time!decentralization!has!probably!reduced!market!access!of! centrallyGlocated! services.! As! long! as! the! Swiss! economy! was! dominated! by! manufacturing,! dispersion! policies! have! simply! induced! a! displacement! from! density! economies! to! size! economies.! But! after! the! rise! of! the! service! economy,! the! size! effect! could! not! compensate! for! reduced!density,!so!that!antiGurban!policies!limited!density!economies!without!compensation.! Specialization! has! mostly! had! a! negative! effect.! However,! after! 1991,! localization! economies! were! very! strong! in! manufacturing.! In! the! service! sector! specialization! had! a! strong! positive! impact! between! 1888! and! 1930.! The! evolution! of! this! elasticity! stands! out! by! its! strong! fluctuations.!At!certain!times,!specialization!had!very!strong!positive!effects!on!productivity!but! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 39!Moreover,! the! estimates! in! table! 6! measure! the! effect! of! density! on! productivity,! controlling! for! area,!

specialization,!and!diversity.!Hence,!the!estimates!are!not!strictly!comparable.!However,!the!elasticities!in! table!6!change!only!little!if!the!control!variables!are!excluded.!


229!

at!other!moments!it!had!a!strong!negative!impact.!In!sum,!specialization!seems!to!have!been!a! risky!strategy.!! The!evidence!of!Jacobs!externalities,!on!the!other!hand,!is!stunning!particularly!for!the!service! sector.! Being! situated! in! a! diversified! environment! was! clearly! beneficial! to! the! service! sector.! This! effect! was! strongest! between! 1860! and! 1888.! For! the! manufacturing! sector! Jacobs! externalities! were! strong! between! 1860! and! 1888! and! between! 1941! and! 1990.! The! fact! that! diversity!was!most!important!in!early!stages!of!the!Swiss!growth!spurt!while!specialization!was! most! important! for! manufacturing! in! the! 21st! century! resonates! Duranton! and! Puga’s! proposition! that! Jacobs! externalities! are! important! in! early! stages! of! the! lifeGcycle,! while! localization!economies!are!important!in!mature!stages!(Duranton!&!Puga!2001).!! The! simultaneity! of! dependent! and! explanatory! variables! implies! that! there! is! a! potential! endogeneity! problem! due! to! circular! causation.! A! positive! shock! on! productivity! in! a! location! might! well! attract! additional! workers! or! firms,! which! increases! density! launching! another! increase!in!productivity.!In!fact,!this!type!of!circular!causality!is!the!very!mechanism!of!spatial! economic! models.! It! is! therefore! not! surprising! that! such! an! endogeneity! problem! might! eventually! arise.! However,! econometric! estimation! has! to! meet! this! problem! with! an! appropriate! identification! strategy! in! order! to! estimate! unbiased! parameters.! My! strategy! consists! of! instrumenting! employment! density! with! population! density! of! the! year! 1798.! Exogeneity!of!this!instrument!cannot!be!tested!statistically,!but!it!is!reasonable!to!assume!that! population!density!in!1798!is!not!influenced!by!local!productivity!levels!after!1860.!! Table!6b!presents!the!results!of!the!instrumental!variables!regression.!I!report!also!a!firstGstage! FGtest! of! population! density! in! 1798! in! order! to! identify! if! the! instrument! is! weak40.! The! FG statistics! of! all! regressions! are! way! above! the! threshold! proposed! by! Stock,! Wright,! and! Yogo! (2002,!p.522),!which!is!8.96.!Logically,!the!instrument!becomes!less!relevant!for!regressions!on! later! periods! but! even! for! employment! density! between! 1991! and! 2008! population! density! in! 1798!is!an!extremely!strong!instrument.!! The! parameters! for! density! and! area! are! generally! smaller! in! 2SLS! regressions! than! in! OLS.! However,! the! effect! of! density! remains! positive! and! significant! for! all! periods! after! 1888.! Between!1888!and!1930!this!is!mainly!due!to!manufacturing!and!after!1941!the!effect!is!strong! in! services.! As! in! OLS! regressions,! the! impact! of! area! size! on! productivity! is! significant! after! 1941!because!of!the!effect!in!manufacturing.!The!parameters!of!specialization!are!very!close!to! OLS,!and!those!of!diversity!are!even!larger!than!those!in!OLS!regressions.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 40!Complete!fistGstage!regressions!are!reported!in!table!6c.!

230!


The! last! column! reports! an! endogeneity! test! proposed! by! Wooldridge! (2010,! p.118‑122)41.! During!the!first!period,!density!is!endogenous!only!for!the!service!sector!regression;!from!1888! to!1930!density!is!endogenous!for!both!sectors!individually!and!pooled;!and!between!1941!and! 1990!density!is!endogenous!only!for!manufacturing!sector!regressions.!In!these!cases!(including! the!long!panels!that!include!the!whole!period)!IV!regressions!yield!more!consistent!results.!In!all! other!cases,!OLS!estimates!are!preferable.!The!endogeneity!test!is!not!merely!a!specification!test,! but!it!has!also!an!interesting!interpretation.!In!fact,!it!provides!statistical!evidence!that!circular! causality!has!operated!between!density!and!productivity!from!1888!to!1930.!! Does!instrumentation!change!our!previous!interpretations?!The!effect!of!Jacobs!externalities!is! even!stronger!than!in!OLS!regressions!and!remains!also!unchanged!as!to!the!periods!and!sectors! that! are! concerned:! services! over! the! whole! period,! manufacturing! before! 1888! and! between! 1941! and! 1990.! Evidence! for! localization! economies! is! still! very! punctual! and! remains! unchanged! as! well:! in! manufacturing! after! 1991! in! services! between! 1888! and! 1930.! The! positive!effect!of!density!on!manufacturing!productivity!still!follows!an!NGshape.!However,!part! of! the! strong! correlation! during! the! period! 1888! to! 1930! suggested! by! OLS! is! due! to! circular! causality.!Between!1941!and!1990!the!effect!of!density!on!productivity!is!not!significant!when! reverse!causality!is!accounted!for.!The!positive!effect!of!density!on!services!productivity!persists! and! does! not! imply! circular! causality.! The! positive! impact! of! area! size! on! manufacturing! productivity!still!follows!an!increasing!trend!and!is!significant!after!1941.!In!services!the!effect!is! significant!at!the!10%!level!only!after!1991.!! In!short,!increasing!importance!of!agglomeration!economies!has!contributed!to!growth!between! 1860! and! 1930! by! shifting! the! productivity! levels! of! the! main! growth! poles! of! Switzerland! upward.! During! the! period! 1888! to! 1930,! this! effect! was! reinforced! by! a! positive! feedback! mechanism! operating! between! density! and! productivity.! During! the! second! half! of! the! 20th! century,!dispersion!policies!have!limited!the!benefits!from!density!and!circular!causality!has!not! operated! in! the! same! way! any! more.! After! the! rise! of! the! service! economy,! this! has! had! a! depressing!effect!on!productivity!levels.!! In! the! next! section! I! will! focus! more! narrowly! on! dynamic! agglomeration! economies! by! measuring!the!effects!on!productivity!and!employment!growth.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 41 !The!

test! consists! of! regressing! the! dependent! variable! on! the! supposedly! endogenous! variable!

(density),! all! exogenous! regressors,! and! the! firstGstage! residuals.! Under! the! assumption! that! all! other! variable! are! exogenous,! endogeneity! (of! the! variable! density)! entails! that! the! first! stage! residuals! be! correlated! with! the! dependent! variable.! A! standard! tGtest! for! the! regression! coefficient! of! the! first! stage! residuals!serves!to!reject!or!not!the!hypothesis!that!density!is!exogenous.!The!reported!statistic!is!the!pG value!of!the!tGtest!on!firstGstage!residuals.! !


231!

Agglomeration)and)growth) In! table! 7! and! 8,! I! measure! the! impact! of! density! on! subsequent! productivity! growth! and! employment!growth.!Growth!is!measured!in!annual!rates!between!two!periods!(see!equation!6).! Explanatory! variables! are! taken! at! the! beginning! of! the! period.! For! example,! average! annual! employment!growth!between!1860!and!1870!is!regressed!on!employment!density!in!1860!and! the! relative! labor! productivity! level! in! 1860.! I! suppose! that! this! lag! structure! between! dependent!and!explanatory!variables!is!sufficient!to!prevent!serious!endogeneity!problems.!For! productivity! growth,! I! include! also! the! initial! labor! productivity! level! in! order! to! control! for! convergence!effects.!BER!dummies!and!time!fixed!effects!are!again!included.!I!focus!directly!on! panel!regressions!providing!the!results!for!the!entire!period!and!four!subGperiods.!! The!density!elasticity!of!labor!productivity!growth!was!positive!and!significant!in!all!periods.!For! example! in! 1860,! a! region! with! twice! as! many! workers! per! square! kilometer! had! an! average! annual! growth! rate! of! productivity! that! was! 0.19%! higher! (2! = 2!.!"# ).! There! was! also! a! tendency! toward! convergence.! As! suggested! by! standard! growth! theory,! the! speed! of! convergence!has!slowed!down!during!the!convergence!process!and!so!has!the!growth!effect!of! density.! The! effect! on! employment! was! significant! and! positive! as! well.! It! fellGout! strongest! between!1888!and!1930,!when!it!was!almost!twice!as!high!as!the!impact!on!productivity!growth.! Thereafter!the!density!elasticity!of!employment!growth!decreased!rapidly.!! In! sum,! in! the! context! of! rapid! market! integration! since! the! second! half! of! the! 19th! century! density! had! a! positive! effect! on! growth! of! regional! employment! and! labor! productivity.! The! effect! on! employment! was! stronger! but! decreased! much! more! rapidly,! while! the! effect! on! productivity!growth!was!still!positive!and!significant!in!the!early!21st!century.! Tables! 9! and! 10! estimate! different! types! of! dynamic! agglomeration! economies! on! economic! growth.!Table!9!measures!the!effect!on!labor!productivity!growth,!while!table!10!is!dedicated!to! the!effect!on!employment!growth.!The!most!general!model!in!table!9,!when!manufacturing!and! services! are! pooled! and! the! entire! period! is! considered,! suggests! that! density! and! area! had! a! positive!effect!on!productivity!growth,!while!specialization!had!no!effect!and!diversity!a!negative! one.!There!is!also!clear!evidence!for!convergence.!The!density!and!the!area!effects!followed!the! NGshape! pattern.! This! confirms! that! dispersion! policies! have! significantly! limited! the! growth! potential!of!dense!and!large!regions.!As!in!the!static!analysis,!the!evolution!of!the!specialization! elasticity! was! subject! to! strong! fluctuations.! In! manufacturing! the! effect! was! most! of! the! time! insignificant,!but!after!1991!specialization!has!significantly!accelerated!productivity!growth.!In! services,! the! effect! was! significant! and! positive! between! 1860! and! 1930,! whereas! it! became! negative! thereafter,! particularly! after! 1991.! The! impact! of! diversity! was! positive! in! manufacturing! before! 1888! and! in! services! between! 1930! and! 1990.! Convergence! occurred! in!

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both! sectors! in! every! subGperiod.! And! the! speed! of! convergence! decelerated! over! time! as! predicted!by!neoclassical!growth!theory.! The!effects!of!agglomeration!on!regional!employment!growth!have!been!changing!over!time.!In! manufacturing,!density!and!area!size!had!a!significant!positive!impact!between!1860!and!1930.! After! 1930,! crowding! and! congestion! came! to! dominate! the! benefits! from! agglomeration.! In! services,!density!and!area!size!were!always!positive!after!1888.!After!1991!the!area!size!effect! was!not!significant!though.!Again,!employment!growth!reacted!more!strongly!to!density!than!to! area! size.! A! slight! NGshape! evolution! is! discernible! in! the! evolution! of! the! density! elasticity.! Specialization! had! a! positive! significant! impact! on! manufacturing! employment! growth! after! 1991!and!on!services!employment!between!1888!and!1930.!In!all!other!periods,!specialization! had! a! strong! negative! impact! on! service! employment! growth.! This! can! be! interpreted! as! convergence! in! tertiary! employment! rates.! Diversity! had! a! significant! positive! effect! on! manufacturing! employment! growth! before! 1888! and! on! service! employment! growth! between! 1930! and! 1990.! Generally,! the! employment! growth! effects! were! of! the! same! sign! as! the! productivity! growth! effects.! This! is! in! line! with! economic! geography! models:! agglomeration! is! selfGreinforcing!because!it!increases!productivity!and!thereby!attracts!more!workers!and!firms.! Exceptions!where!the!productivity!and!the!employment!growth!effects!go!in!opposite!directions! are! the! density! elasticities! for! manufacturing! after! 1930! and! the! specialization! elasticity! in! services! between! 1860! and! 1888.! These! observations! are! more! in! line! with! standard! growth! theory,!where!decreasing!marginal!returns!encourage!firms!to!delocalize!to!less!dense!regions,! which!increases!marginal!productivity!in!the!dense!regions.! In!sum,!this!section!confirmed!the!existence!of!dynamic!agglomeration!economies!due!to!density! and! to! a! lesser! degree! to! the! size! of! the! region.! Dynamic! agglomeration! economies! have! also! been!reduced!by!the!dispersion!policies.!

Agglomeration)and)growth)at)the)industry)level) In! the! preceding! section,! evidence! on! dynamic! localization! and! Jacobs! externalities! was! relatively! weak.! This! might! be! a! consequence! of! the! high! aggregation! level! at! which! I! have! focused! so! far:! namely! the! manufacturing! and! service! sectors.! Arguably,! localization! externalities!occur!probably!at!the!industry!level!rather!than!the!sector!level.!Sharing!of!inputs,!a! common! labor! pool,! matching! workers! and! firms,! or! learning! is! more! likely! to! occur! between! two! firms! of! say! the! watchGmaking! industry! than! just! between! any! firms! of! the! manufacturing! sector.!Analogously!for!Jacobs!externalities,!crossGfertilization!between!industries!necessitates!a! minimal! degree! of! relatedness! between! the! concerned! activities.! Such! benefits! accrue! more! probably! between! e.g.! the! chemical! industry! and! textile! refinement,! than! between! a! manufacturing! industry! and! a! service! activity.! Evolutionary! geographers! have! extensively!


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treated!the!concept!of!relatedness!between!industries,!arguing!that!cognitive!proximity!between! industries!was!necessary!for!Jacobs!externalities!to!occur.!In!this!sense,!what!matters!is!not!just! diversity,!but!variety!among!related!industries!(Boschma!&!Frenken!2011).!! Another!argument!for!analyzing!agglomeration!economies!at!the!industry!level!is!that!different! industries! might! respond! to! different! types! of! agglomeration! economies.! Typically,! industries! that!are!in!early!phases!of!their!lifeGcycle!might!be!more!responsive!to!Jacobs!externalities,!while! mature!industries!tend!to!exploit!localization!economies!(Duranton!&!Puga!2001).!Most!analyses! on!dynamic!agglomeration!economies!do!in!fact!focus!on!industries!rather!than!sectors!(Glaeser! et!al.!1992;!Henderson!et!al.!1995;!Combes!2000a)! In! the! case! of! Switzerland! from! 1860! to! 2008! an! industryGlevel! analysis! is! possible! only! for! effects! on! employment! growth,! because! I! do! not! have! any! data! on! regional! productivity! by! industry.!Tables!11!to!14!present!the!results!of!such!industryGlevel!analyses.!In!table!11!I!focus! on!manufacturing!industries.!The!regressors!include!again!total!employment!density,!area!size,! specialization,!and!diversity.!Specialization!now!refers!to!the!respective!industry,!and!diversity! is!measured!by!entropy!among!all!other!industries!in!the!manufacturing!sector.!This!relates!to! the! operationalization! of! the! related! variety! concept! proposed! by! Frenken! et! al! (2007).! They! measure! 4GdigitGindustry! variety! within! 2Gdigit! industries.! Hence,! the! 2Gdigit! level! defines! relatedness,!whereas!variety!is!measured!at!the!4Gdigit!level.!In!my!specification,!the!sector!level! defines! relatedness! and! variety! is! measured! at! the! industry! level.! I! also! introduce! the! industrialization!rate.!This!variable!captures!the!effect!of!the!size!of!the!manufacturing!sector!on! subsequent!employment!growth.!This!type!of!agglomeration!economy!can!be!interpreted!as!an! intermediate! case! between! urbanization! and! localization! economies,! where! externalities! are! neither! encompassing! nor! purely! industryGspecific.! In! some! regions! there! are! some! industries! with!a!very!small!workforce.!In!such!cases!a!few!additional!workers!can!lead!to!extremely!high! employment! growth! rates.! This! tends! to! bias! the! results! for! specialization! leading! to! strong! negative! elasticities.! In! order! to! cope! with! this! problem! I! exclude! all! cases! where! initial! employment!is!less!than!20!workers.! The!first!line!of!the!table!presents!results!for!a!three!dimensional!panel!(regions,!industries,!and! time).! This! is! the! most! general! model! capturing! average! effects! of! all! types! of! agglomeration! economies.!All!estimates!are!positive!and!significant!with!the!exception!of!specialization,!which! had!a!significant!negative!impact!on!employment!growth.!! Several! industries! experienced! strong! significantly! negative! effects! of! specialization.! This! is! surprising! because! many! Swiss! industries! are! highly! localized.! In! particular! the! watchGmaking! industry! (M01)! has! always! been! strongly! localized! and! the! literature! insists! on! the! positive! effects! of! this! cluster! strategy! (Lecoq! et! al.! 1995;! Pasquier! 2008;! Veyrassat! 1997).! However,! there! were! no! positive! localization! effects! on! employment! growth,! neither! in! the! panel!

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regression! reported! in! table! 11! nor! in! periodGwise! regressions! for! the! watchGmaking! industry! (these! results! are! not! reported).! But! watchGmaking! is! the! only! industry! that! experienced! a! significant!negative!effect!of!diversity.!! Jacobs! externalities! on! the! other! hand! have! a! strong! positive! impact! according! tot! the! pooled! regression.! For! all! but! five! industries! the! estimate! is! positive,! however! only! for! 7! individual! industries!the!effect!was!significant!at!the!10%!level.!These!were!industries!in!which!creativity! and!rapid!adaptation!to!changes!in!fashion!were!important!(C03!embroidery;!D01!clothing;!H01! carpentries,!glaziers,!and!furniture;!N01_03!music!instruments,!toys,!sportsware,!and!strollers),! and! industries! that! function! as! suppliers! for! many! other! activities! (J01! chemicals;! K01! metal! industry;!and!P01!provision!of!gas!water!and!electricity).!! Density!and!area!size!had!a!significant!positive!impact!in!the!food!industry!(B01!meat!industry;! B03! grain! milling;! B04! pastry,! bakery,! chocolate,! coffee,! and! others;! B05! beverages;! B06! tobacco).!Locating!close!to!customers!was!essential!in!these!industries!because!these!goods!are! perishable! or! heavy! to! transport! (beverages).! Textile! spinning! and! weaving! (C01)! grew! also! faster! in! dense! and! large! markets,! while! textile! refinement! (C02)! reacted! positively! to! market! size.! The! paper! industry! (F01_02);! watchGmaking! (M01);! and! music! instruments,! toys,! sportsware,! and! strollers! (N01_03)! grew! faster! in! denser! environments.! Industries! that! functioned!mainly!as!suppliers!to!other!industries!such!as!other!textiles!(C04);!leather,!rubber! and! plastics! (E01_03);! the! graphical! industry! (G01);! and! the! metal! industry! (K01)! benefited! from!a!large!manufacturing!sector.!! In! the! service! sector,! analogous! to! manufacturing,! all! types! of! agglomeration! economies! were! positive!with!the!exception!of!specialization.!However,!the!effects!of!area!size!and!the!size!of!the! service! sector! are! significant! at! the! 15%! level! only.! Density! and! area! size! led! to! faster! employment! growth! in! communications! (S03);! education! (V01);! and! domestic! services! (X03).! Commerce! (Q01);! commercial! and! technical! intermediation! and! consulting! (Q04),! communications! (S03);! and! health! care! (U01)! benefitted! from! a! large! service! sector.! Specialization!had!mostly!a!negative!and!significant!impact,!while!diversity!was!positive!for!the! majority!of!the!service!industries.!The!impact!was!significant!in!banking!(Q03);!commercial!and! technical! intermediation! and! consulting! (Q04);! communications! (S03);! public! administration! (T01);!and!health!care!(U01).! In!table!12!and!13!I!explore!the!evolution!of!these!effects!in!time.!For!manufacturing!industries,! density! and! area! size! had! strong! positive! impacts! in! 1900,! certainly! as! a! reaction! to! market! integration.! Both! effects! constantly! decreased! thereafter! and! became! insignificant! by! 1970.! In! the! 1980s! both! effects! were! again! positive! jointly! with! the! size! of! the! manufacturing! sector.! Diversity! was! beneficial! to! employment! growth! during! the! earlier! periods.! For! service! sector! industries!density,!area!size,!and!the!size!of!the!service!sector!accelerated!employment!growth!


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before!1930,!while!diversity!was!beneficial!during!the!1930s!and!the!postwar!boom.!During!the! 1990s,!specialization!and!diversity!had!a!significant!negative!impact,!while!density!and!area!size! accelerated!employment!growth!significantly.! In! sum,! this! section! shows! that! different! forms! of! dynamic! agglomeration! economies! were! important! for! different! industries.! Many! industries! benefit! from! some! kind! of! agglomeration! economy.! Some! industries! react! to! none! of! the! investigated! forms! of! agglomeration.! There! is! ample! evidence! for! urbanization! economies! from! density! (in! manufacturing! and! services)! and! area!size!(in!manufacturing!only).!The!size!of!the!sector!and!diversity!have!very!strong!effects!in! certain!industries,!which!points!to!the!importance!of!knowledge!spillovers!between!industries!of! the!same!sector,!i.e.!among!related!industries.!No!evidence!was!found!for!localization!economies.! On!the!contrary,!specialization!had!a!significant!negative!effect!on!employment!growth.!This!is! an! interesting! result,! which! throws! new! light! on! the! efficiency! of! highly! specialized! industrial! districts!in!Switzerland,!particularly!the!watchGmaking!industry.!

Conclusion' Switzerland! is! an! interesting! case! for! the! analysis! of! the! relation! between! agglomeration! and! economic!growth.!This!country!has!inherited!relatively!neutral!geographical!structures!from!the! preGindustrial! period,! so! that! in! the! era! of! modern! economic! growth! the! interaction! between! agglomeration!and!economic!growth!could!fully!expand!its!effects.! Spatial!concentration!of!economic!activity!was!comparatively!low!in!Switzerland!in!1860!but!it! has!increased!rapidly!until!1930.!The!Great!Depression!has!reduced!concentration!and!a!number! of! institutional! arrangements! and! transfer! systems! between! regions! and! municipalities! have! limited! spatial! concentration! during! the! second! half! of! the! 20th! century.! Fast! growing! manufacturing! industries! were! strongly! concentrated! in! 1860! but! dispersed! thereafter.! These! industries! first! appeared! in! certain! regions! built! up! their! growth! potential! and! then! diffused! from!these!growth!poles!to!the!rest!of!the!country.!! Regional! inequality! in! labor! productivity! has! also! been! low! compared! to! other! countries.! Between! 1860! and! 1990! it! followed! a! bellGshaped! curve.! Thereafter! regional! inequality! increased!again.!The!bellGshaped!curve!shows!that!productivity!first!increased!in!certain!regions! before!diffusing!to!the!rest!of!the!country.!This!confirms!the!findings!of!Williamson!(1965).! Agglomeration! economies! have! contributed! significantly! to! Switzerland’s! most! important! growth! phase! between! 1860! and! 1910.! During! this! period! agglomeration! economies! have! become!gradually!more!important!and!shifted!the!productivity!levels!of!the!main!growth!poles! of!the!economy!upward.!These!agglomeration!economies!were!mainly!static.!But!there!was!also! a! dynamic! effect! of! agglomeration,! which! acted! on! labor! productivity! growth! and! employment! growth.!Different!forms!of!agglomeration!economies!were!realized.!Density!and!area!size!were!

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important! for! industries! where! proximity! to! customers! was! important.! In! manufacturing! area! size!was!more!important!than!density,!while!density!was!more!important!in!services.!The!size!of! the!sector!and!diversity!were!very!important!in!manufacturing!industries!that!had!many!vertical! linkages.! This! points! to! the! importance! of! knowledge! spillovers! à! la! Jacobs.! Diversity! was! also! very!important!in!several!services.!This!might!be!due!to!human!capital!externalities.!! My! analysis! also! throws! an! interesting! light! on! very! specialized! regions! and! concentrated! industries,! particularly! the! watchmaking! industry.! Conventional! wisdom! has! it! that! these! clusters!were!particularly!dynamic,!and!the!very!fact!that!these!clusters!exist!provides!a!certain! evidence! for! this! argument.! Landes! (1979)! and! many! others! have! highlighted! the! proficiency! that! these! clusters! have! developed! in! the! 18th! and! early! 19th! century.! However,! I! found! no! convincing! evidence! for! localization! economies! after! 1860.! In! fact! specialization! has! had! a! negative! significant! effect! in! most! analyses:! this! concerns! the! effect! on! productivity! and! productivity! growth! at! the! sectoral! level! and! on! employment! growth! at! the! industry! level.! However,!I!could!not!test!the!productivity!effect!at!the!industry!level,!because!the!necessary!data! is! lacking.! It! is! possible! that! localization! economies! had! a! positive! effect! on! industry! productivity,! but! it! is! certain! that! these! productivity! gains! did! not! lead! to! higher! employment! growth.!Possibly,!localization!economies!were!productivity!increasing!and!labor!saving,!but!this! remains!to!be!proven.! The!fact!that!agglomeration!economies!have!had!a!much!weaker!effect!during!the!second!half!of! the!20th!century!raises!questions!about!the!effect!of!the!numerous!decentralization!policies!that! were! developed! during! that! period.! I! argue! that! these! policies! have! limited! agglomeration! and! the! benefits! from! agglomeration.! For! the! manufacturing! sector! these! policies! have! merely! caused!a!displacement!from!density!effects!to!size!effects,!but!for!the!services!sector!the!reduced! density! could! not! be! compensated! by! size! effects.! After! the! rise! of! the! service! economy,! decentralization! has! limited! the! dynamic! of! the! most! important! growth! poles! of! the! economy.! This!has!contributed!to!the!Swiss!growth!slack!between!1970!and!2000.!The!early!21st!century! saw!a!major!revival!of!urban!regions,!strong!agglomeration!economies,!and!fast!growth.! ! ! !

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'


243!

Appendix' Table'1:'Swiss'GDP'per'capita'in'international'comparison'1851'to'2008' GDP!per!capita!in!1990!GearyGKhamis!dollars!

USA!

France!

Germany!

Belgium!

Netherlands!

12!Western! Europe!

Switzerland!!

Ranking! Switzerland!!

Ratio! Switzerland!/! Europe!12!

Ratio! Switzerland!/! Highest!!

1851! 1875! 1882! 1890! 1900! 1910! 1922! 1929! 1939! 1945! 1950! 1960! 1973! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2008! Note:!!

UK!

!

!

2451! 3434! 3643! 4009! 4492! 4611! 4637! 5503! 6262! 7056! 6939! 8645! 12025! 12931! 16430! 21046! 24602!

1924! 2599! 3338! 3392! 4091! 4964! 5540! 6899! 6561! 11709! 9561! 11328! 16689! 18577! 23201! 28702! 31251!

1568! 2219! 2288! 2376! 2876! 2965! 3610! 4710! 4793! 2573! 5186! 7398! 12824! 14766! 17647! 20392! 22057!

1408! 2112! 2044! 2428! 2985! 3348! 3331! 4051! 5406! 4514! 3881! 7705! 11966! 14114! 15929! 18944! 20801!

1886! 2861! 3136! 3428! 3731! 4064! 4413! 5054! 5150! 4333! 5462! 6952! 12170! 14467! 17197! 20809! 23701!

2388! 2876! 2985! 3186! 3329! 3783! 4599! 5689! 5544! 2686! 5996! 8287! 13081! 14705! 17262! 22148! 25112!

1697! 2369! 2449! 2703! 3155! 3442! 3609! 4452! 5095! 4129! 4944! 7498! 12070! 13958! 16793! 20131! 22359!

1385! 2058! 2286! 3041! 3936! 4732! 4310! 5660! 5872! 5663! 7260! 10323! 17424! 17513! 21487! 20805! 24371!

10! 8! 6! 5! 3! 2! 5! 3! 4! 3! 2! 2! 1! 2! 2! 9! 9!

0.82! 0.87! 0.93! 1.13! 1.25! 1.38! 1.19! 1.27! 1.15! 1.37! 1.47! 1.38! 1.44! 1.25! 1.28! 1.03! 1.09!

0.57! 0.60! 0.63! 0.76! 0.88! 0.95! 0.78! 0.82! 0.90! 0.48! 0.76! 0.91! 1.04! 0.94! 0.93! 0.72! 0.78!

Sources:!Switzerland:!Stohr!(2014a);!others:!the!Maddison!database!(Bolt!&!van!Zanden!2013).! 12! Western! European! countries! (Austria,! Belgium,! Denmark,! Finland,! France,! Germany,! Italy,! Netherlands,! Norway,! Sweden,!Switzerland,!United!Kingdom)!and!the!United!States! The! periodization! corresponds! to! international! business! cycles.! Between! 1890! and! 2000! the! periodization! corresponds! to! the! one! proposed! by! (Müller! et! al.! 2012).! 1875! has! been! chosen! because! several! of! the! selected! countries!witnessed!negative!growth!in!this!year.!1882!corresponds!to!a!financial!crisis!in!Lyon!(Bairoch!1997,!vol.!2,! p.!407G408)!and!to!a!downGturn!in!Switzerland.!And!1851!was!chosen!simply!because!it!is!the!beginning!of!the!Swiss! series.!

!

'

244!


Table'2:'Swiss'economic'growth'in'international'comparison' GDP!per!capita!

GDP!

!

!!

! Ranking! Switzerland! among!13!

Swiss!GDP! per!capita!

!! Swiss!GDP!

1851G1875!

1.7!

4!

0.3!

1875G1882!

1.5!

2!

1.0!

2.4! ! ! 1.1! 1.0! !

1882G1890!

3.6!

1!

1890G1900!

2.6!

1!

!

1900G1910!

1.9!

4!

1910G1922!

G0.8!

12!

1922G1929!

4.0!

3!

1929G1939!

0.4!

9!

1939G1945!

G0.6!

5!

0.9! ! ! G1.0! 2.8! !

1945G1950!

5.1!

8!

1.4!

G1.2!

!

!

1950G1960!

3.6!

6!

1960G1973!

4.1!

6!

1973G1980!

0.1!

13!

G0.7! ! ! 0.4! G2.0! !

1980G1990!

2.1!

6!

0.2!

1990G2000! 2000G2008! Note:!see!table!1!

G0.3!

13!

2.0!

4!

! !


'

!

G2.2! ! ! 0.7! !!



2.2!

6!

0.2!

2.1!

3!

0.8!

4.0!

1!

2.1!

3.8!

2!

1.4!

3.1!

3!

1.3!

G0.5!

12!

G0.9!

4.5!

5!

0.8!

0.8!

10!

G1.1!

0.2!

5!

3.6!

6.4!

8!

2.0!

5.0!

4!

0.0!

5.6!

2!

1.1!

G0.1!

13!

G2.3!

2.8!

3!

0.6!

0.3!

13!

G1.9!

2.5!

3!

1.0!


245!

Table'3:'Urbanization'and'economic'growth'in'Switzerland,'1850-2010'' !

(1)!

(2)!

(3)!

(4)!

Annual! ! increase!of! Total! Swiss! Urban! Urban! urban! Year!! Population! population! percentage! percentage! 1789! 6.5! 0.1! ! ! 1850! 2'392'740! 355'554! 14.9! 0.3!

(5)! Annual! percentage! reduction! of!nonG urban! percentage! 0.1!

(6)!

(7)!

Annual! growth! GDP!

Annual! growth! GDP!per! capita!

0.3!

! 1.6!

! 1.0!

!

Period! 1798G1950! 1851G1870!

1870!

2'655'001!

548'175!

20.6!

0.3!

0.3!

3.4!

2.7!

1870G1880!

1880!

2'831'787!

653'922!

23.1!

0.4!

0.5!

3.6!

3.2!

1880G1890!

1888!

2'917'754!

759'876!

26.0!

0.6!

0.8!

3.8!

2.6!

1890G1900!

1900!

3'315'443!

1'094'940!

33.0!

0.6!

0.9!

3.1!

1.9!

1900G1910!

1910!

3'753'293!

1'451'534!

38.7!

0.1!

0.2!

G0.2!

G0.6!

1910G1920!

1920!

3'880'320!

1'543'720!

39.8!

0.2!

0.3!

2.8!

2.3!

1920G1930!

1930!

4'066'400!

1'691'131!

41.6!

0.3!

0.6!

1.0!

0.6!

1930G1940!

1941!

4'265'703!

1'928'578!

45.2!

0.4!

0.7!

3.0!

2.0!

1940G1950!

1950!

4'714'992!

2'293'179!

48.6!

0.6!

1.2!

5.0!

3.6!

1950G1960!

1960!

5'429'061!

2'963'201!

54.6!

0.5!

1.0!

5.7!

4.1!

1960G1970!

1970!

6'269'783!

3'704'393!

59.1!

G0.1!

G0.2!

1.5!

1.3!

1970G1980!

1980!

6'365'960!

3'718'470!

58.4!

0.1!

0.1!

2.8!

2.1!

1980G1990!

1990!

6'873'687!

4'047'512!

58.9!

0.0!

0.0!

0.3!

G0.3!

1990G2000!

2000!

7'288'010!

4'303'953!

59.1!

0.3!

0.7!

2.5!

2.0!

2000G2008!

2010!

7'870'134!

4'874'822!

61.9!

! ! Correlation!with!annual!increase!of!urbanization!:!

! 0.68!

! 0.59!

!!

Correlation!with!percentage!reduction!of!nonGurban!percentage!:!

0.73!

0.62!

! !Sources:! 1850G2000! Population! data! and! urbanization! rates! are! based! on! harmonized! municipalities! provided! by! Schuler!et!al.!(Schuler!et!al.!2002);!Urbanization!rate!for!1798!from!Walter!based!on!the!data!of!Schluchter!(Walter! 1994;! Schluchter! 1988);! Population! and! urbanization! rates! for! 2010! from! StatGtab! Federal! statistical! office;! GDP! growth:!Stohr!(2014a)! Note:!! Definition!of!urban!settlements:!5000!inhabitants!and!more.! Annual! increase! of! urban! percentage:! Since! the! urbanization! rate! is! a! bounded! measure! (it! cannot! be! higher! than! 100%)! its! increase! must! naturally! slow! down! as! the! upper! limit! is! approached.! The! annual! increase! of! the! urban! percentage! does! not! account! for! this.! The! annual! percentage! reduction! of! the! nonGurban! percentage! accounts! for! reduced!scope!for!additional!urbanization.! !

! ! ! !

'

246!


Table'4:'Theil'indices'for'regional'employment,'GDP'and'labor'productivity,'1860-2008' Total!employment! ! 1860!a)!

!! LTI!MSR! 0.203!

Between! Within! 0.072!

0.131!

!

0.226!

1870!a)!

0.193!

0.059!

1880!a)!

0.211!

0.064!

1888!a)!

0.214!

0.063!

0.134! ! ! 0.147! 0.150! !

!

!

! ! !

0.214!

0.063!

! 1888!b)! 1900!b)!

0.260!

0.227! ! ! 0.250! 0.301! !

0.305!

0.078!

0.338!

0.088!

1930!b)!

0.397!

0.096!

0.406!

!

0.187!

1920!b)! 1941!b)!

0.150!

0.073!

1910!b)!

0.092!

0.314!

!

1970!b)!

0.550!

0.142!

1980!b)!

0.558!

0.146!

1990!b)!

0.543!

0.147!

0.409! ! ! 0.411! 0.396! !

!

!

! ! !

1991!c)!

0.592!

0.155!

0.437!

2001!c)!

0.600!

0.162!

0.438!

!

!! LTI!MSR!

!

GDP! Labor!productivity! ! Between! Within! !! LTI!MSR! Between! Within! 0.084!

0.142!

0.003!

0.001!

0.002!

0.223!

0.075!

0.004!

0.002!

0.002!

0.248!

0.075!

0.005!

0.001!

0.003!

0.286!

0.091!

0.148! ! ! 0.173! 0.195! !

0.010!

0.004!

0.007!

!

!

! ! !

!

!

!

0.291!

0.092!

0.012!

0.004!

0.009!

0.013!

0.003!

0.010!

0.010!

0.002!

0.008!

0.010!

0.004!

0.005!

0.011!

0.003!

0.008!

0.008!

0.002!

0.006!

0.006!

0.003!

0.003!

0.003!

0.002!

0.002!

0.002!

0.001!

0.001!

!

!

!

0.002!

0.001!

0.001!

0.008!

0.003!

0.362!

0.199! !

0.102!

0.259!

0.401!

0.097!

0.439!

0.122!

0.524!

0.125!

0.304! ! ! 0.317! 0.399! !

0.512!

!

0.118!

0.394!

0.646!

0.171!

0.628!

0.169!

0.607!

0.169!

0.475! ! ! 0.459! 0.438! !

!

!

! ! !

0.604!

0.165!

0.439!

0.662!

0.182!

0.480!

!

0.005! ! ! 2005!c)! 0.591! 0.161! 0.430! 0.665! 0.187! 0.477! 0.008! 0.003! 0.005! ! ! 2008!c)! 0.593! 0.168! 0.426! !! 0.665! 0.196! 0.469! !! 0.008! 0.004! 0.005! Notes:!All!data!from!Stohr!(2014b).!Main!source!of!employment!data:!a)!population!census!(HI_19!classification);!b)! population!census!(HI_54!classification);!c)!industrial!census!(NOGA!2002!2Gdigit!classification).!

! !

!

'


247!

Table'5:'Employment'density'and'regional'labor'productivity' Dependent!variable:!!" !"#$%! !

! ! !!

!" !"#$! ! B!

! S.!E.!

BER!dummies!

! Time!fixed! effects!

!

!

N!

adj.!R2!

Annual!regressions! 1860!a)!

0.027! **!

0.009!

yes!

!

97!

0.349!

1870!a)!

0.027! *!

0.010!

yes!

!

97!

0.421!

1880!a)!

0.049! ***!

0.011!

yes!

!

97!

0.236!

1888!a)!

0.079! ***!

0.015!

yes!

!

97!

0.456!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

1888!b)!

0.089! ***!

0.016!

yes!

!

97!

0.451!

1900!b)!

0.102! ***!

0.015!

yes!

!

97!

0.483!

1910!b)!

0.090! ***!

0.014!

yes!

!

97!

0.358!

1920!b)!

0.083! ***!

0.011!

yes!

!

97!

0.637!

1930!b)!

0.096! ***!

0.013!

yes!

!

97!

0.449!

1941!b)!

0.077! ***!

0.012!

yes!

!

97!

0.404!

1970!b)!

0.062! ***!

0.007!

yes!

!

97!

0.530!

1980!b)!

0.045! ***!

0.004!

yes!

!

97!

0.638!

1990!b)!

0.037! ***!

0.004!

yes!

!

97!

0.641!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !

1991!c)!

0.035! ***!

0.005!

yes!

!

97!

0.616!

2001!c)!

0.080! ***!

0.010!

yes!

!

97!

0.602!

2005!c)! ! Panel!regressions:!

0.078! ***!

0.009!

yes!

!

97!

0.618!

1860G2008!

0.069! ***!

0.003!

yes!

yes!

1455!

0.505!

1860G1888!

0.045! ***!

0.006!

yes!

yes!

388!

0.355!

1888G1930!

0.092! ***!

0.006!

yes!

yes!

485!

0.495!

1941G1990!

0.053! ***!

0.004!

yes!

yes!

388!

0.504!

1991G2008! 0.068! ***! 0.004! yes! yes! 388! 0.643! Notes:!All!data!from!Stohr!(2014b).!Main!source!of!employment!data:!a)!population!census!(HI_19!classification);!b)! population!census!(HI_54!classification);!c)!industrial!census!(NOGA!2002!2Gdigit!classification).! ‘!***!‘!sig.!0.001;!‘!**!‘!sig.!0.01;!‘!*!‘!sig.!0.05;!‘!…!‘!sig.!0.1;!‘!..!‘!sig.!0.15;!‘!.!‘!sig.!0.2! All!variables!in!logarithms:!the!parameters!are!elasticities.!

! !

Christian)Stohr)/)Agglomeration)Economies)and)Economic)Growth)in)Switzerland,)1860=2008)

248)

Table&6a:&Static&agglomeration&economies&in&manufacturing&and&services& Dependent)variable:)!" !"#$%!,! )

)OLS) !" !"#$! !

) ))

)

B) ))

S.E.! !!

!" !"#!! !

)

B) ))

S.E.! !!

!" !"#$!,! !

)

B) ))

S.E.! !!

!" !"#!!!!,! ! S.E.!

BER) dummies)

) Time) fixed) effects)

=0.003) ) ) 0.064) ***)

!0.006!

yes))

yes))

yes)) ) 2910) ) 0.198)

0.016!

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

0.181)

=0.010)

0.008!

yes)

yes)

yes)

970)

0.165)

) 0.013) …)

0.008!

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

0.151)

0.100) ***)

0.019!

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

0.397)

B) ))

)

) ) Sector) fixed) effects)

) N)

adj.)R2)

Pooled) 1860=2008)

0.036)) )***)

1860=1888)

0.000)

1888=1930)

0.042) )***)

1941=1990) 1991=2008)

0.004!

0.040) ***)

0.004! ) )

) ) 0.024) ***)

1860=1888)

! !

1888=1930)

) 0.038) ***)

1941=1990)

0.012) *) 0.031) ***)

0.024)) )***)

0.004!

) )

0.006!

)

0.004!! ! ) 0.008! 0.007! )

=0.001) 0.024) )***)

0.006!

0.026) **)

0.008! ) )

) ) 0.027) ***)

! !

) ) 0.007!

)

1860=2008)

)

) 0.044) )***)

1860=1888)

0.006)

1888=1930)

0.010) )…)

1941=1990)

!

=0.008) ) 0.023) *) 0.042) ***) 0.041) ***)

0.011!

)

=0.022)) )***)

0.004!! ! ) ) 0.010! 0.009! )

=0.001) =0.021) )*) =0.026) **)

0.009!

0.056) ***) ) ) 0.017) …)

)

!

) )

! !

) ) 0.010!

0.018) )***)

!0.004! ) )

0.008)

0.008!

0.015) )*)

0.006! ) ) 0.006! 0.009! )))

)

)

) )

0.024! ) ) 0.019! 0.020! )

=0.033) .) 0.012) =0.006) ) ) 0.088) ***) )

)

0.014! ) )

0.023!

)

) )

! 0.003! ) ) ) 0.007! 0.005! )

) )

0.013! ) ) 0.011! 0.009! )

) ) Services)

)

0.028) ***)

) ) 0.010! ) ) 0.008! 0.006! )

=0.006)

1991=2008)

)

0.024) ***)

)Manufacturing) ) 1860=2008)

0.003!! ! ) 0.006! 0.005! )

!

)

) =0.015) *)

)

0.011! ) ) 0.014! 0.027! )))

)

yes)

)

) yes)

)

) no)

)

) 1455)

)

0.100)

yes)

no)

388)

0.129)

=0.015) .)

0.011!

yes)

yes)

no)

485)

0.160)

0.021) *)

0.011!

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

0.237)

0.034!

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

0.371)

=0.008) )

0.014!

0.007!

)

yes)

) )

=0.028) *)

!

)

0.025!

)

!0.009! ) )

!

0.073) **)

) =0.026) )**) 0.053) ***)

)

!

)

)

)

)

)

0.056) )***)

!0.012! )

yes) )

yes) )

no) ) 1455) ) 0.455)

0.150) ***)

0.026!

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

0.400)

0.055) **)

0.018!

yes)

yes)

no)

485)

0.511)

0.033) ***) 0.004! 0.009) .) =0.045) **) 0.064) **) 0.019! yes) yes) no) 388) 0.435) 1991=2008) 0.069) ***) 0.005! ))) 0.019) *) =0.051) …) 0.056) *) 0.028! yes) yes) no) 388) 0.623) Notes:) All) data) from) Stohr) (2014b).) Main) source) of) employment) data:) a)) population) census) (HI_19) classification);) b)) population) census) (HI_54) classification);) c)) industrial) census) (NOGA)2002)2=digit)classification).) ‘)***)‘)sig.)0.001;)‘)**)‘)sig.)0.01;)‘)*)‘)sig.)0.05;)‘)…)‘)sig.)0.1;)‘)..)‘)sig.)0.15;)‘).)‘)sig.)0.2) All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities)


249)

Table&6b:&Static&agglomeration&economies&in&manufacturing&and&services,&instrumented&results& 2SLS)

Dependent)variable:)ln)LPrel) ln)dens)

ln)area)

)

ln)spec)

)

))

B)

) pooled)

))

S.E.! !!

) )

! !

) ) 0.023) ***)

1860=2008) 1860=1888)

! ! 0.003) ) 0.007) ) 0.006) ) 0.005) ) 0.005) )

=0.003)

1888=1930)

) 0.020) **)

1941=1990)

0.019) ***)

1991=2008)

0.035) ***)

) ) Manufacturing) ) 1860=2008) 1860=1888)

) ) 0.011) *)

) )

=0.005)

0.011)

) 0.025) **)

1888=1930) 1941=1990)

0.003)

1991=2008)

) 0.013) ..)

S.E.! !!

B) ))

) )

! !

) )

) ) 0.015) ***)

0.009) 0.007) 0.009)

) ) ) ) ) )

! ! 0.004) ) 0.008) ) 0.007) ) 0.007) ) 0.009) )

=0.002) ) 0.010) .) 0.024) ***) 0.022) **)

) ) 0.005)

) ) 0.018) **)

) )

=0.008)

0.007) 0.013)

) 0.015) .)

0.012)

0.036) ***)

0.010)

0.030) *)

1860=2008)

) )

) ) 0.026) ***)

0.012)

) ) )

)

)

) )

) )

) 0.007) .)

)

) )

=0.002)

0.008)

) =0.009) ..)

0.006)

) ) )

0.031) ***)

0.005)

0.067) ***)

) 0.008) ))

0.004) 0.004) 0.007)

0.005) 0.008)

) )

) 0.017) …)

0.007) 0.007)

) ) )

) 0.010) ))

)

S.E.! )

) ) sector) fixed) effects)

)first)stage) F=test)on) N) Dens1798) )

)

) )

0.006)

) yes)

) yes)

) ) yes)

0.016)

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

5337.5)

0.243)

0.008)

yes)

yes)

yes)

970)

2971.9)

0.000)

0.008)

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

1179.4)

0.091)

0.020)

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

899.6)

0.217)

)

)

)

) ) ) ) 0.010) =0.007) ) ) 0.024) 0.073) **) ) 0.019) =0.009) ) ) 0.020) 0.030) **) ) 0.026) =0.006) ) )

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

=0.024) *) 0.054) ***)

) =0.034) .) 0.018) )

) 0.055) *) ) ) =0.014) ..) =0.026) …) 0.057) ***) =0.042) **) =0.047) ..)

) )

) )

)

)

) ) ) ) 0.009) 0.071) ***) ) 0.014) 0.158) ***) ) 0.012) 0.084) ***) ) 0.014) 0.065) ***) ) 0.030) )) 0.061) …)

Endogenity) test) (Wooldridge))

)

)

) =0.012) .)

=0.011)

! ! )

B) ))

) time)fixed) BER) effects)

)

0.000)

0.012)

S.E.! !!

)

! ! ) ) 0.004) 0.005) ) ) 0.010) 0.066) ***) ) 0.009) 0.000) ) ) 0.009) 0.018) *) ) 0.014) 0.106) ***) )

)

) )

1888=1930)

1991=2008)

)

)

1860=1888)

1941=1990)

) )

) 0.004)

) ) =0.020) ***)

) )

) ) Services)

)

))

))

ln)div)E)

) B)

))

) 0.008)

)

) yes)

)

) yes)

)

2910)

) no)

)

)

) 4634.5)

) 1455)

)

)

0.000)

) 2656.0)

)

0.000)

0.025)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

2779.7)

0.747)

0.011)

yes)

yes)

no)

485)

1612.4)

0.003)

0.011)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

668.6)

0.028)

0.034)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

457.6)

0.714)

0.012)

yes)

yes)

no)

1455)

) 2255.6)

)

0.000)

0.026)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

2842.2)

0.002)

0.019)

yes)

yes)

no)

485)

1481.8)

0.000)

0.020)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

654.4)

0.517)

0.032)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

261.8)

0.733)

Notes:) All) data) from) Stohr) (2014b).) Main) source) of) employment) data:) a)) population) census) (HI_19) classification);) b)) population) census) (HI_54) classification);) c)) industrial) census) (NOGA)2002)2=digit)classification).) ‘)***)‘)sig.)0.001;)‘)**)‘)sig.)0.01;)‘)*)‘)sig.)0.05;)‘)…)‘)sig.)0.1;)‘)..)‘)sig.)0.15;)‘).)‘)sig.)0.2) All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities)


250)

Table&6c:&Static&agglomeration&economies&in&manufacturing&and&services,&first&stage&results& OLS)

Dependent)variable:)ln)dens) ln)dens1798)

ln)area)

) )) ) pooled)

Estimate) ))

S.E.! !!

Estimate) ))

) )

! !

) )

! !

) )

1860=1888)

1.105) ***)

1888=1930)

1.124) ***)

1941=1990)

1.309) ***)

1991=2008)

1.457) ***)

) ) Manufacturing) ) 1860=2008)

) 1.267) ***)

1860=1888)

1.132) ***)

1888=1930)

) )

) )

) ) 1.237) ***)

0.025)

0.028) 0.050)

1.347) ***)

0.063)

=0.032) *) =0.085) ***) =0.071) …) =0.044) )

) ) ) )

) ) =0.038) ..)

) )

=0.023)

0.026) 0.022)

) =0.081) **)

0.029)

=0.005) =0.031)

) )

0.054) )

0.065)

) ) ) ) ) )

)

)

) )

)

)

) )

)

) )

) =0.035) .)

)

) )

0.026)

1.100) ***)

0.021)

1888=1930)

1.064) ***)

0.028)

1991=2008)

) )

! ! 0.019) ) 0.016) ) 0.022) ) 0.040) ) 0.052) )

)

1860=1888)

1941=1990)

) ) =0.063) **)

) )

0.021)

1.302) ***)

1991=2008)

1860=2008)

)

! ! 0.018) ) 0.015) ) 0.021) ) 0.038) ) 0.049) )

1.117) ***)

1941=1990)

)

S.E.! !!

) ) 1.254) ***)

) ) )

1.294) ***)

0.051)

1.306) ***)

) 0.081) ))

ln)div)E)

)

Estimate) ))

1860=2008)

) Services)

ln)spec)

)

S.E.! !!

! ! ) 0.020) ) 0.019) ) 0.026) ) 0.057) ) 0.086) )

0.087) ***) 0.292) ***) 0.349) ***) =0.306) ***)

) =0.375) ***)

) )

=0.088) *)

0.038) 0.042)

0.242) ***)

0.049)

=0.360) **)

0.110)

=1.194) ***)

=0.021)

0.021)

) =0.069) *)

0.028)

) ) )

=0.040)

0.052)

) =0.111) .)

) 0.077) ))

)

0.111)

) ) ) ) ) )

S.E.!

) ) sector) fixed) effects)

adj.) R2)

N)

0.024)

) yes)

) yes)

) ) ) yes) 1455) 0.868)

0.169) ***)

0.031)

yes)

yes)

yes)

388) 0.968)

0.239) ***)

0.024)

yes)

yes)

yes)

485) 0.931)

0.541) ***)

0.046)

yes)

yes)

yes)

388) 0.865)

0.670) ***)

0.115)

yes)

yes)

yes)

388) 0.805)

) ) 0.440) ***)

)

) )

) 0.026)

)

) yes)

)

) )

)

)

) 0.362) ***)

)

) time)fixed) BER) effects) )

) )

)

0.027)

Estimate) ))

! ! )

) ) 0.057) **)

)

)

) yes)

)

no)

)

)

)

)

) 1455) 0.880)

0.267) ***)

0.043)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.967)

0.313) ***)

0.028)

yes)

yes)

no)

485) 0.937)

0.668) ***)

0.052)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.880)

0.656) ***)

0.186)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.847)

) ) ) 0.721) ***)

)

) )

)

) )

0.048)

0.313) ***)

0.035)

0.494) ***)

0.051)

) ) )

1.397) ***)

0.102)

1.420) ***)

) 0.203) ))

) ) =0.131) …) =0.054)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

) 1455) 0.880)

0.068)

yes)

yes)

no)

0.065)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.972)

0.078)

yes)

yes)

no)

485) 0.946)

=0.357) *)

0.163)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.892)

0.351) ..)

0.238)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.814)

) 0.335) ***)

Notes:) All) data) from) Stohr) (2014b).) Main) source) of) employment) data:) a)) population) census) (HI_19) classification);) b)) population) census) (HI_54) classification);) c)) industrial) census) (NOGA)2002)2=digit)classification).) ‘)***)‘)sig.)0.001;)‘)**)‘)sig.)0.01;)‘)*)‘)sig.)0.05;)‘)…)‘)sig.)0.1;)‘)..)‘)sig.)0.15;)‘).)‘)sig.)0.2) All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities)


251)

Table&7:&Employment&density&and®ional&labor&productivity&growth& ) ) )) 1860=2008)

Dependent)variable):)!"(1 + !"#! )) !" !"#$! ) B) ))

S.#E.# ))

0.0016) ***)

0.0003#

1860=1888)

0.0027) ***)

0.0007#

1888=1930)

0.0024) ***)

0.0006#

1930=1990)

!" !"#$%! )

)

0.0004) *)

0.0002#

) ) )

)

Time)) ) fixed) effects)

BER) S.#E.# dummies)

B) ))

) N) adj.)R2)

=0.0208) ***)

0.0022#

yes)

yes)

1358)

0.754)

=0.0305) ***)

0.0068#

yes)

yes)

291)

0.780)

=0.0266) ***)

0.0038#

yes)

yes)

388)

0.768)

=0.0246) ***)

0.0020#

yes)

yes)

388)

0.926)

)

1991=2008) 0.0017) **) 0.0006# =0.0081) .) 0.0062# yes) yes) 291) 0.498) ) Notes:)All)data)from)Stohr)(2014b).)Main)source)of)employment)data:)a))population)census)(HI_19)classification);)b)) population)census)(HI_54)classification);)c))industrial)census)(NOGA)2002)2=digit)classification).) ‘)***)‘)sig.)0.001;)‘)**)‘)sig.)0.01;)‘)*)‘)sig.)0.05;)‘)…)‘)sig.)0.1;)‘)..)‘)sig.)0.15;)‘).)‘)sig.)0.2) All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities.)) )

) Table&8:&Employment&density&and®ional&employment&growth& ) ) )) 1860=2008) 1860=1888)

Dependent)variable):)!"(1 + !"#! )) !" !"#$! ) B) )) 0.0015) ***) =0.0001)

)

) )

)

S.#E.#

BER)dummies)

time)fixed)effects)

N)

adj.)R2)

0.0003#

yes)

yes)

1358)

0.355)

0.0010#

yes)

yes)

291)

0.075)

1888=1930)

0.0044) )***)

0.0007#

yes)

yes)

388)

0.195)

1930=1990)

0.0015) ***)

0.0005#

yes)

yes)

388)

0.531)

1991=2008) 0.0003) 0.0006# yes) yes) 291) 0.637) ) Notes:)All)data)from)Stohr)(2014b).)Main)source)of)employment)data:)a))population)census)(HI_19)classification);)b)) population)census)(HI_54)classification);)c))industrial)census)(NOGA)2002)2=digit)classification).) ‘)***)‘)sig.)0.001;)‘)**)‘)sig.)0.01;)‘)*)‘)sig.)0.05;)‘)…)‘)sig.)0.1;)‘)..)‘)sig.)0.15;)‘).)‘)sig.)0.2) All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities.)) ) ) )


252)

Table&9:&Dynamic&agglomeration&economies&in&manufacturing&and&services,&effects&on&labor&productivity&growth& ))

Dependent)variable:)ln)(1+gLP)) ln)dens)

) ))

ln)area) ) S.E.$ $$

B) ))

ln)spec) ) S.E.$ $$

B) ))

ln)div) ) S.E.$ $$

B) ))

ln)Lprel) ) S.E.$ ))

B) ))

S.E.$

) BER)

0.0024)

) yes)

) yes)

) ) ) yes) 2716) 0.588)

=0.0821) ***)

0.0045)

yes)

yes)

yes)

582)

0.766)

=0.0604) ***)

0.0058)

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

0.522)

=0.0295) ***)

0.0024)

yes)

yes)

yes)

776)

0.808)

=0.0099) …)

0.0055)

yes)

yes)

yes)

582)

0.190)

B) ))

) ) ) time) sector) FE) FE)

) N) adj.)R2)

Pooled) ) ) 0.0021) ***)

1860=2008) 1860=1888)

$ $ 0.0003) ) 0.0009) ) 0.0010) ) 0.0003) ) 0.0006) )

=0.0004) ) 0.0026) **)

1888=1930) 1930=1990)

0.0006) *)

1991=2008)

0.0019) **)

) ) Manufacturing) ) 1860=2008) 1860=1888)

) ) 0.0016) ***)

)

) )

)

) )

=0.0012)

0.0011)

) 0.0027) **)

1888=1930)

0.0004)

1930=1990)

0.0004)

1991=2008)

) 0.0031) ***)

0.0009) 0.0004) 0.0009)

) ) ) )

) ) 0.0013) *)

$ $ 0.0005) ) 0.0010) ) 0.0012) ) 0.0005) ) 0.0012) )

=0.0005) ) 0.0017) .) 0.0008) …) 0.0010) ) ) ) 0.0017) *)

1860=2008) 1860=1888)

) )

) ) 0.0020) ***) 0.0009) ..)

) )

0.0005)

) ) ) )

1888=1930)

0.0006)

0.0005)

1930=1990)

) 0.0006) ***)

0.0002)

0.0043) ***)

) 0.0010) ))

1991=2008)

)

0.0019) =0.0007)

)

) 0.0030) .)

0.0022)

*)

0.0014) 0.0006)

)

0.0028)

)

) ) ) ) ) )

)

) )

)

)

) )

)

)

) ) =0.0015) ) 0.0046) ) =0.0015) ) 0.0005) ) =0.0030) )

) *)

)

) )

) )

)

)

) ) =0.0027) ) =0.0014) ) 0.0013) ) 0.0015) ) )) =0.0051)

) *)

)

0.0007)

0.0018) **)

0.0007)

0.0024) ..)

0.0017)

) ) ) )

=0.0009) =0.0008) =0.0005) 0.0008)

)

0.0010) 0.0026)

)

0.0019)

)

0.0013)

) 0.0102) **)

0.0034)

) ) )

) ) 0.0004) 0.0006)

) ) )

) 0.0010) …)

)

0.0006)

0.0000)

0.0003)

) 0.0014) ))

) 0.0015) ))

)

0.0008)

)

)

)

)

) 0.0031) **)

0.0008) 0.0011)

0.0034) **)

0.0010)

=0.0009) …)

0.0005)

=0.0187) ***)

0.0046)

0.0007)

..)

0.0029)

.)

0.0011) 0.0008)

)

0.0048)

)

)

) ) ) )

) ) =0.0499) ***)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

0.0027)

yes)

yes)

no)

) 1358)

)

0.643)

=0.1069) ***)

0.0053)

yes)

yes)

no)

291)

0.867)

=0.0659) ***)

0.0047)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

0.560)

=0.0400) ***)

0.0034)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

0.718)

=0.0209) **)

0.0080)

yes)

yes)

no)

291)

0.356)

) ) ) 0.0011) 0.0022)

)

) =0.0396) ***)

)

)

0.0011)

0.0005)

.)

0.0007)

) )

0.0014)

) 0.0009) *)

)

) )

0.0018) ..)

)

) ***)

)

=0.0020) .)

) ) 0.0003)

$ $ ) 0.0006) =0.0023) ) 0.0013) 0.0029) ) 0.0015) =0.0030) ) 0.0007) 0.0002) ) 0.0021) =0.0031) )

)

) ) Services)

) ) =0.0002) ) 0.0039) **)

0.0016)

) ) ) ) )

) ) =0.0273) ***)

) )

) 0.0025)

)

) yes)

)

) )

)

yes)

) ) ) no) 1358) 0.898)

=0.0527) ***)

0.0040)

yes)

yes)

no)

291)

0.882)

=0.0371) ***)

0.0044)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

0.968)

=0.0219) ***)

0.0018)

yes)

yes)

no)

388)

0.974)

0.0094)

yes)

yes)

no)

291)

0.144)

) *)

0.0007)

))

) 0.0049) )) =0.0190) *)

Notes:) All) data) from) Stohr) (2014b).) Main) source) of) employment) data:) a)) population) census) (HI_19) classification);) b)) population) census) (HI_54) classification);) c)) industrial) census) (NOGA)2002)2=digit)classification).) ‘)***)‘)sig.)0.001;)‘)**)‘)sig.)0.01;)‘)*)‘)sig.)0.05;)‘)…)‘)sig.)0.1;)‘)..)‘)sig.)0.15;)‘).)‘)sig.)0.2) All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities.)Explanatory)variables)are)taken)at)the)beginning)of)each)period.))


253)

Table&10:&Dynamic&agglomeration&economies&in&manufacturing&and&services,&effects&on&employment&growth& ))

Dependent)variable:)ln)(1+gL)) ln)dens)

) ))

ln)area)

ln)spec)

)

ln)div)

)

B) ))

S.E.$

$$

) ) 0.0002) ) =0.0004) *)

$ 0.0009)

$

B) ))

)

S.E.$

$$

$ 0.0009)

$

B) ))

S.E.$

) $$

B) ))

S.E.$

) BER) time)FE)

) ) sector) FE)

N)

) adj.) R2)

Pooled) 1860=2008) 1860=1888)

0.0022)

1888=1930)

0.0039) ***)

0.0017)

1930=1990)

0.0006) *)

0.0012)

1991=2008)

=0.0014)

0.0014) )

) ) ) Manufacturing) ) ) 1860=2008) =0.0010) ***) 1860=1888)

) ) ) )

0.0027)

0.0005) **)

0.0021)

0.0007) **)

0.0018)

=0.0001) **)

0.0025)

) ) )

0.0029) ***)

1888=1930)

) ) =0.0003) ) =0.0012) **)

0.0012) 0.0021)

0.0051) ***)

0.0030)

1930=1990)

=0.0019) **)

0.0015)

1991=2008)

=0.0013) *)

0.0021)

1860=2008) 1860=1888) 1888=1930) 1930=1990) 1991=2008)

) )

) ) 0.0008) ***) =0.0040) *)

)

)

)

)

)

=0.0007)

)

)

)

)

) 0.0012) ***)

)

)

0.0018) 0.0040)

0.0021) ***)

)

0.0030) **)

)

)

)

)

)

0.0035) 0.0015)

) ) )

0.0010) ***)

0.0011)

0.0014) *)

) 0.0016) ))

)

0.0046)

=0.0091)

)

=0.0039)

)

0.0020) )

0.0015)

) 0.0003) .)

0.0034)

0.0049)

=0.0003)

0.0031)

) =0.0009) ***)

0.0044)

) ) =0.0004) ***) =0.0035) ***) 0.0009) ..)

$ ) ) ) ) )

)

)

)

)

)

=0.0082) =0.0205)

)

=0.0360)

)

=0.0097)

)

)

)

)

)

)

0.0013) 0.0045)

)

0.0029)

)

0.0018)

) 0.0104) **)

0.0063)

)

)

)

)

) ) )

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

) )

0.0008) ))

) 0.0048) ))

0.0052) *)

0.0025)

yes)

yes)

yes)

776) 0.478)

0.4303)

yes)

yes)

yes)

776) 0.860)

0.0493)

yes)

yes)

yes)

582) 0.254)

) =0.0122) **) 0.0070) **)

0.0026) 0.0109) 0.0043)

) )

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

) 1358) 0.674)

yes)

0.0164) …)

0.0951)

yes)

yes)

no)

291) 0.863)

0.0109)

0.0219)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.637)

0.0470)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.791)

0.2677)

yes)

yes)

no)

291) 0.418)

)

yes)

)

)

) ) ) 0.0003) …) 0.2052)

)

)

) no)

)

)

0.0023)

582) 0.759)

0.0210)

)

0.0008) ***)

yes)

0.0003)

)

)

0.0027)

yes)

)

)

=0.0063)

) ) ) yes) 2716) 0.602)

yes)

)

)

) yes)

0.8208)

0.0094)

)

0.0062)

) yes)

0.0118) ..)

=0.0051)

) 0.0019)

) ) =0.0012) **) 0.7176)

)

)

) 0.0010)

)

$ 0.0011)

)

) ) Services)

) ) =0.0006) ) =0.0059) **)

) ) 0.0091) *) 0.0387) =0.0063)

)

)

)

)

)

)

)

) )

)

yes)

) ) ) no) 1358) 0.898)

0.1815)

yes)

yes)

no)

291) 0.882)

0.1959)

yes)

0.0177)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.962)

=0.0110) …)

0.0030)

)

) 0.0134) *)

0.1620)

yes)

yes)

no)

388) 0.982)

=0.0123) ***)

) 0.0051) ))

0.0027) ))

0.1070)

yes)

yes)

no)

291) 0.182)

Notes:) All) data) from) Stohr) (2014b).) Main) source) of) employment) data:) a)) population) census) (HI_19) classification);) b)) population) census) (HI_54) classification);) c)) industrial) census) (NOGA)2002)2=digit)classification).) ‘)***)‘)sig.)0.001;)‘)**)‘)sig.)0.01;)‘)*)‘)sig.)0.05;)‘)…)‘)sig.)0.1;)‘)..)‘)sig.)0.15;)‘).)‘)sig.)0.2) All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities.)All)variables)in)logarithms:)the)parameters)are)elasticities.)Explanatory)variables)are)taken)at)the)beginning)of)each)period.)


254)

Table&11:&Dynamic&agglomeration&economies&in&manufacturing&industries,&effects&on&job&creation& ))

Dependent)variable:)ln$(1+gL)) ln$dens$

$ )) Pooled) ) ) B01) B02) B03)

B) )) 0.0023) **)

ln$area$ $ S.E.$ $$ 0.0008$

0.0073) *) =0.0018)

0.0031$ 0.0038$

) 0.0115) **)

0.0041$

0.0111) **)

0.0034$

B05)

0.0042)

0.0042$

0.0092)

)

) 0.0145) **)

0.0146$

0.0154)

0.0156$

) 0.0105) .)

0.0080$

E01_03) F01_02) ) G01)

0.0106)

0.0095$ )

=0.0002) 0.0021) =0.0010)

) )

) )

)

) 0.0142) *)

) 0.0170) *)

0.0062$ 0.0066$

0.0087) …)

0.0053$

0.0157) *)

0.0069$

0.0387) …)

0.0041$ 0.0031$ 0.0071$

) )

0.0211$

0.0024$

0.0309) …) =0.0139) =0.0113)

0.0182$ 0.0136$

)

0.0181$

)

0.0011$

H02)

0.0088) *)

0.0035$

J01) ) K01)

0.0061) ) =0.0030) .)

0.0059$ 0.0022$

L01)

=0.0054) *)

0.0025$

0.0108) …) =0.0004)

)

0.0062$

) ) ) )

) )

=0.0012)

0.0115$ 0.0111$

) =0.0132) .) 0.0163)

0.0099$ 0.0148$

) 0.0580) ..)

) )

0.0398$

0.0062$ 0.0052$

) 0.0173) .)

0.0125$

) ) )

0.0036$

) =0.0034) *) 0.0045) 0.0089)

0.0017$ 0.0049$

)

0.0099$

) 0.0033$

) =0.0063) …)

0.0037$

0.0065)

0.0100$ ) )

0.0181) 0.0124)

)

) 0.0610) *)

0.0519$ 0.0275$ 0.0292$

) )

0.0163$

) ) )

) ) )

=0.0011)

0.0068)

) 0.0254) **) =0.0048)

0.0115$ 0.0097$ 0.0261$

) 0.0190) *) 0.0028) ) =0.0121) .) 0.0247) .)

0.0018$ )

) =0.0050) *) 0.0004) =0.0020) =0.0004)

) )

) ) )

0.0017$ 0.0023$ 0.0019$

) )

0.0021$ 0.0046$

) 0.0009)

)

0.0052$ )

=0.0034) 0.0002) 0.0013)

) )

) =0.0026) *) 0.0006) ) =0.0032) *) =0.0077) *)

0.0031$ 0.0091$ 0.0181$

) )

=0.0118) .) =0.0290) ..) 0.0336)

0.0059$ 0.0082$ 0.0193$ 0.0372$

)

) ) ) )

$ BER)

0.0143) ***)

0.0041$

yes)

yes)

0.0261) ..)

0.0178$

yes)

0.0075)

0.0204$

) ) )

0.0044$ 0.0040$ 0.0036$

) ) ) )

0.0011$ 0.0021$ 0.0016$ 0.0039$

) ) )

0.0021) 0.0128) 0.0110) 0.0200)

$ $ $ time) industry) FE) FE)

$ N)

adj.)R2)

yes)

14768)

0.182)

yes)

no)

637)

0.651)

=0.0008) ) 0.0020) .) =0.0073) **)

0.0012$ 0.0007$ 0.0015$ 0.0025$

) ) )

)

yes)

yes)

no)

466)

0.149)

)

0.0219$

yes)

yes)

no)

440)

0.721)

)

0.0173$

yes)

yes)

no)

657)

0.589)

0.0267$

yes)

yes)

no)

444)

)

0.263)

0.0811$

yes)

yes)

no)

194)

0.227)

) 0.0376) .)

0.0274$

yes)

yes)

no)

474)

0.273)

0.0632)

0.0739$

yes)

yes)

no)

155)

0.247)

) 0.1071) …)

0.0547$

yes)

yes)

no)

185)

0.498)

0.0202)

0.0712$

yes)

yes)

no)

225)

0.388)

) 0.0230) *)

0.0091$

yes)

yes)

no)

705)

0.487)

0.0112)

0.0201$

yes)

yes)

no)

576)

0.434)

0.0199$

yes)

yes)

no)

534)

0.085)

0.0481$

yes)

yes)

no)

358)

0.087)

0.0161)

0.0136$

yes)

yes)

no)

600)

0.220)

) 0.0172) **)

0.0055$

yes)

yes)

no)

752)

0.460)

0.0160$

yes)

yes)

no)

564)

0.329)

) 0.0547) …)

0.0328$

yes)

yes)

no)

456)

0.083)

0.0269) *)

0.0231) 0.0321)

) =0.0038) **)

)

)

0.0024$ )

) 0.0076$

)

)

) 0.0160) **)

)

)

)

)

=0.0008)

0.0098)

)

0.0021) )

0.0155$ )

0.0043) )

0.0003$

S.E.$

B) ))

)

) 0.0011)

)

0.0031$

0.0042)

)

0.0112$ )

)

)

=0.0016) ***)

0.0098$

) 0.0149) .)

)

) 0.0091) ..)

0.0032) )

)

B) ))

ln$div$ $ S.E.$ ))

) 0.0054)

)

0.0085$

) 0.0014)

0.0023$

)

=0.0023) )

0.0049) *)

0.0048$ )

0.0196) *) )

0.0020$ )

H01)

M02)

)

0.0013)

)

) =0.0039) ***)

M01)

)

B) ))

ln$spec$ $ S.E.$ $$

) 0.0049)

)

0.0053$

C03)

D02)

0.0012$

)

C02)

C04) ) D01)

0.0042) ***) )

B04)

B06) ) C01)

B) ))

ln$IndR$ $ S.E.$ $$

) ) )

=0.0046)

) =0.0034) **)

0.0011$

=0.0040) ***)

0.0011$

=0.0024) ) =0.0090) *)

0.0027$ 0.0045$

) ) ) )

0.0119$

yes)

yes)

no)

744)

0.129)

=0.0125)

0.0124$

yes)

yes)

no)

612)

0.437)

) =0.0872) *)

0.0433$

yes)

yes)

no)

344)

0.266)

=0.0388)

0.0666$

yes)

yes)

no)

147)

0.284)

)


N01_03)

0.0071) …)

0.0038$

O01)

=0.0025) .)

0.0018$

O02)

=0.0006)

0.0016$

O03)

0.0007)

)

0.0021$

) =0.0003) ))

P01)

0.0102) ..) ) ) )

) 0.0022$ ))

0.0063$

=0.0013) 0.0017) 0.0025)

0.0030$ )

0.0022$

)

0.0033$

) 0.0046) ..)

0.0273) …) ) ) )

) 0.0031$ ))

0.0144$

=0.0183) ***)

0.0049$

=0.0022)

0.0044$

0.0009)

)

0.0069$

=0.0062) **) ) )

0.0020$

=0.0027) *)

0.0012$

=0.0024) **)

0.0008$

)

=0.0049) ***) ) 0.0065$ )) =0.0031) **)

) 0.0016) ))

0.0012$

0.0506) *) )

255)

0.0251$

yes)

yes)

no)

431)

0.188)

0.0083$

yes)

yes)

no)

754)

0.462)

0.0075$

yes)

yes)

no)

703)

0.614)

0.0111$

yes)

yes)

no)

646)

0.448)

0.0109$

yes)

yes)

no)

543)

0.319)

S.E.$

$ BER)

$ time) FE)

$ $ industry) FE)

0.0063$

) yes)

) yes)

0.0144) .)

0.0103$

yes)

yes)

no)

801)

0.527)

=0.0630) ..)

0.0416$

yes)

yes)

no)

371)

0.434)

0.0686) *)

0.0278$

yes)

yes)

no)

561)

0.570)

0.0365) …)

0.0218$

yes)

yes)

no)

625)

0.620)

0.0057)

0.0135$

yes)

yes)

no)

819)

0.556)

) 0.0234) ..)

0.0151$

yes)

yes)

no)

800)

0.545)

0.0229) …)

0.0120$

yes)

yes)

no)

783)

0.664)

0.0455) *)

0.0225$

yes)

yes)

no)

763)

0.293)

0.0520) **)

0.0200$

yes)

yes)

no)

760)

0.226)

0.0068)

0.0132$

yes)

yes)

no)

813)

0.280)

0.0348$

yes)

yes)

no)

775)

0.176)

0.0411$

yes)

yes)

no)

420)

0.390)

0.0195$

yes)

yes)

no)

805)

0.424)

0.0171$

yes)

yes)

no)

592)

0.674)

=0.0019)

)

0.0091)

)

0.0054)

) 0.0011$ ))

) )

) 0.0417) ***)

) Table&12:&Dynamic&agglomeration&economies&in&service§or&industries,&effects&on&job&creation& ))

Dependent)variable:)ln$(1+gL)) ln$dens$

$ )) ) Pooled) ) ) Q01) Q02) Q03) Q04) ) R01)

)

) 0.0013) **) =0.0017) …) =0.0013) =0.0009) 0.0014)

)

X03)

) )

0.0010$

0.0018$ 0.0017$

) 0.0006)

B) )) ) 0.0011) ..)

$

0.0007$

) )

0.0006)

0.0012$ 0.0009$ 0.0015$

) =0.0008) ) 0.0038) ***) 0.0039) ..) =0.0002) ) 0.0049) **) =0.0009) ))

0.0014) =0.0030) 0.0016)

)

) )

0.0015$

0.0026$ 0.0027$

)

) )

B) )) ) 0.0016) ..)

$

0.0011$

0.0032$ 0.0025$ 0.0022$

0.0012)

) 0.0023) …) 0.0018)

)

0.0017$ 0.0012$ 0.0022$

0.0005) ) 0.0042) *)

) 0.0011$ )) =0.0029) …)

) 0.0054) ..)

0.0043$ 0.0037$

) )

0.0014$

0.0039$

) )

=0.0027)

) 0.0054) **) 0.0051) .)

0.0026$ 0.0019$ 0.0035$

) 0.0016$ ))

$

0.0002$

) )

) =0.0035) *) =0.0024) *) =0.0020) *)

) )

0.0024) =0.0041)

0.0033$

) =0.0017) **) =0.0007) .) =0.0015) …)

0.0022$ )

) 0.0112) .)

0.0055$ 0.0078$

) )

0.0005$ 0.0015$ 0.0010$ 0.0010$

=0.0031) ))

0.0033$

) ) )

0.0006$ 0.0006$ 0.0005$ 0.0009$

) ) )

=0.0012) *) =0.0043) ***) =0.0073) ***)

0.0009$ 0.0006$ 0.0013$ 0.0017$

) 0.0047) .)

) 0.0198) **)

$

) ) ) yes) 9688) 0.292)

) =0.0024) **)

)

) )

$ N) adj.)R2)

) =0.0003)

)

B) ))

)

)

) 0.0021$

) =0.0008) ***) =0.0005)

)

0.0024$ )

0.0088) **) )

B) ))

)

)

0.0037$ )

=0.0005)

0.0070$ )

=0.0019) )

0.0021$

) 0.0022) ..)

0.0070)

0.0020$

)

)

0.0023)

)

) )

ln$div$ $ S.E.$ ))

) 0.0060) **)

)

0.0014$ )

=0.0021) )

) 0.0016$

)

)

) 0.0010$

0.0013$ )

0.0009) )

) )

ln$spec$ $ S.E.$ $$

) 0.0001)

)

0.0010$ )

S03)

W02) ) X01)

0.0005$

0.0023$ )

) 0.0030) ***)

W01)

$

ln$ServR$ $ S.E.$ $$

)

0.0012)

V01)

)

B) ))

S01_02)

T01) ) U01)

ln$area$ $ S.E.$ $$

=0.0010) ) ) 0.0026$ )) =0.0006) ))

) ) )

=0.0078)

)

) 0.0630) ..)

) 0.0009$ ) 0.0007$ ))

=0.0160) ) 0.0266) ..)


256)

Table&12:&Dynamic&agglomeration&economies&in&manufacturing&industries&by&period,&effects&on&job&creation& ))


) )) ) 1888) 1900)

ln)area) ) S.E.$ $$

B) )) )

) 0.0028) .) 0.0143) ***)

$

0.0021$ 0.0023$

1910)

0.0048) *)

0.0023$

1920)

0.0056) *)

0.0024$

1930) 1941) 1970) 1980) 1990)

0.0050) *) 0.0027) *) =0.0016) ) 0.0038) …) =0.0003) ))

0.0021$ 0.0011$ 0.0015$ 0.0022$

)

B) )) )

)

0.0000)

)

) 0.0122) ***)

) ) )

)

) 0.0040$ ))

)

0.0022$ 0.0027$ 0.0030$

0.0060) …)

0.0032$

0.0044) *)

)

$

0.0063) *)

0.0059) …)

)

) )

ln)IndR) ) S.E.$ $$

0.0032$ 0.0018$

) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

0.0028)

0.0030$

) 0.0072) …)

0.0042$

0.0059) ))

) 0.0047$ ))

)

ln)spec) ) S.E.$ $$

B) ))

0.0041)

)

) =0.0185) **) =0.0014) =0.0025) 0.0064) 0.0010) 0.0016)

$

0.0045$ 0.0057$ 0.0067$

) ) ) )

) 0.0254) *) =0.0104) ))

0.0066$ 0.0076$ 0.0040$ 0.0089$ 0.0128$

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

) 0.0113$ ))

ln)div) ) S.E.$ ))

B) ))

=0.0003) 0.0008)

) )

$

0.0006$ 0.0008$

) =0.0036) ***)

0.0009$

=0.0015) ..)

0.0009$

=0.0014) ..) =0.0028) ***) =0.0032) ***) 0.0005) ) =0.0031) **)

0.0009$ 0.0005$ 0.0008$ 0.0011$

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

) 0.0011$ ))

S.E.$

) BER)

) time) FE)

) $ 0.0128) …) 0.0074$

) yes)

) no)

) ) ) yes) 1454)

0.367)

B) ))

=0.0072)

) ) industry) FE)

) N)

adj.)R2)

0.0095$

yes)

no)

yes)

1611)

0.227)

) 0.0194) …)

0.0100$

yes)

no)

yes)

1659)

0.255)

0.0189) ..)

0.0121$

yes)

no)

yes)

1652)

0.315)

0.0102)

0.0124$

yes)

no)

yes)

1679)

0.508)

0.0062$

yes)

no)

yes)

1684)

0.583)

0.0113$

yes)

no)

yes)

1756)

0.290)

0.0191$

yes)

no)

yes)

1687)

0.415)

0.0250$

yes)

no)

yes)

1586)

0.180)

0.0051) 0.0059) 0.0192)

) ) )

) 0.0247) ))


257)

Table&13:&Dynamic&agglomeration&economies&in&service§or&industries&by&period,&effects&on&job&creation& ))


) )) ) 1888) 1900)

B) )) )

) 0.0017) .) =0.0006)

$

0.0013$ 0.0014$

1910)

) 0.0064) **)

0.0022$

1920)

0.0030) **)

0.0010$

1930) 1941)

)

ln)area) ) S.E.$ $$

0.0011) 0.0006)

0.0010$ ) )

1970)

0.0003)

1980)

0.0005)

1990)

) 0.0064) ***)

)

0.0008$ 0.0009$ 0.0010$

) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

) 0.0016$ ))

ln)IndR) ) S.E.$ $$

B) )) )

=0.0005)

)

) 0.0030) …)

$

0.0016$ 0.0017$

0.0003)

0.0028$

) 0.0025) …)

0.0013$

=0.0019) ..) =0.0008)

0.0013$ 0.0011$

) ) ) ) ) ) )

) 0.0022) ..)

)

0.0014$

0.0014)

0.0016$

) 0.0065) ***)

) 0.0019$ ))

)

ln)spec) ) S.E.$ $$

B) )) ) 0.0160) ***) 0.0164) ***)

$

0.0021$ 0.0024$

=0.0121) **)

0.0039$

0.0062) **)

0.0020$

=0.0034) ..) =0.0018)

0.0021$ 0.0017$

) =0.0066) *)

0.0031$

=0.0079) …)

0.0042$

0.0047) ))

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

) 0.0050$ ))

ln)div) ) S.E.$ ))

B) ))

=0.0003)

)

) =0.0009) …)

$

0.0005$ 0.0005$

=0.0008)

0.0009$

) =0.0007) ..)

0.0004$

=0.0002) ) =0.0033) ***)

0.0005$ 0.0004$

) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

B) )) ) 0.0257) …)

) ) industry) FE)

) N) adj.)R2)

) yes)

) no)

) ) ) yes) 864) 0.444)

=0.0255) ..)

0.0161$

yes)

no)

yes)

939)

0.254)

0.0744) *)

0.0293$

yes)

no)

yes) 1011)

0.278)

0.0146$

yes)

no)

yes) 1041)

0.652)

) 0.0777) ***)

0.0134$

yes)

no)

yes) 1056)

0.604)

0.0570) ***)

0.0114$

yes)

no)

yes) 1084)

0.682)

0.0111)

0.0129$

yes)

no)

yes) 1209)

0.672)

0.0169$

yes)

no)

yes) 1232)

0.490)

0.0220$

yes)

no)

yes) 1252)

0.240)

=0.0178)

0.0006$

=0.0048) ***)

0.0008$

=0.0030) **)

) ) 0.0009$ )) =0.0485) *)

=0.0033)

)

$

) ) time) BER) FE)

0.0137$

=0.0043) ***)

)

S.E.$


259)

) ) ) ) Figure'1:'Spatial'Theil'index'for'fast'growing'manufacturing'industries'

) ) )

260)


) Figure'2:'Spatial'Theil'index'of'mature'industries'

) ) ) ) )

)


261)

Figure'3:'Spatial'Theil'index'of'fast'growing'service'industries'

)

262)


) Figure'3:'Theil'index'of'regional'inequality'within'8'BER'regions,'1860F2008'

) Notes:)see)table)4)

) Figure'4:'Spatial'Theil'index'of'GDP'

) Notes:)see)table)4)

'

)

Conclusion)to:) Spatial'Dynamics'of'Economic'Growth') in#Switzerland#from#1860#to#2008)

) Christian)Stohr) University*of*Geneva* Paul*Bairoch*Institute*for*Economic*History* ) ) In)this)thesis)I)investigated)Swiss)economic)growth)in)spatial)perspective.)Revisiting)the)existing) Swiss) GDP) series,) I) have) shown) that) Swiss) economic) growth) between) 1930) and) 1985) was) significantly) underestimated.) I) have) proposed) a) new) GDP) series,) which) builds) on) reliable) sources) and) is) corroborated) by) international) benchmark) comparisons) of) GDP) and) wages.) This) series)implies)that)19th=century)Switzerland)was)much)less)rich)than)suggested)by)the)updated) Maddison) database) (Bolt) &) van) Zanden) 2013),) which) is) currently) the) main) reference) used) for) international)GDP)per)capita)comparisons.)The)period)1850)to)1910)now)stands)out)as)the)most) important)growth)phase)of)Switzerland.)During)that)time,)Swiss)GDP)per)capita)converged)from) below) the) European) average) to) a) level) that) is) comparable) to) the) USA,) which) was) the) world’s) richest) country.) The) interwar) period) was) characterized) by) a) mitigated) growth) performance:) while)the)comparative)performance)was)rather)good)in)the)1920s)and)during)WWII,)the)crises) after) WWI) and) during) the) Great) Depression) affected) Switzerland) more) durably) than) other) economies.)Post=war)growth)was)average)compared)to)other)European)countries)until)1973,)but) thereafter) Switzerland) suffered) from) a) serious) growth) slack.) Between) 2000) and) 2008) Swiss) growth)was)relatively)fast)again.)) The)growth)trajectory)of)this)new)GDP)series)corroborates)the)argument)that)market)access)was) the)most)important)growth)factor)of)the)Swiss)economy.)The)central)geographical)location)is)the) main) comparative) advantage) of) Switzerland,) which) –) until) the) end) the) 19th) century) –) was) re= enforced) by) openness) to) trade,) immigration,) and) technology) transfers) and) –) during) the) 20th) century) –) was) diminished) by) increasing) protectionism,) xenophobia) and) self=complacency.) The)

264)

Christian)Stohr)/)Conclusion)to:)Spatial)Dynamics)of)Economic)Growth)in)Switzerland)from)1860)to)2008)

period)1850)to)1910)was)characterized)by)rapid)market)integration)in)the)world)and)among)the) Helvetic)cantons.)This)context)allowed)Switzerland)to)exploit)its)location)advantage)in)order)to) become)a)rich)economy.) As) a) consequence) of) market) integration) among) Swiss) regions) spatial) concentration) has) accelerated) after) 1880.) Switzerland) has) inherited) relatively) neutral) geographical) structures) from)the)pre=industrial)period,)so)that)the)Swiss)economy)was)still)very)dispersed)in)1860.)But) thereafter,)spatial)concentration)has)rapidly)increased.)Both)employment)and)GDP)have)become) ever)more)concentrated)in)space.)Concentration)was)more)intensive)between)urban)centers)and) their) surrounding) territories) than) between) wider) regions) of) the) country.) Concentration) accelerated)first)in)terms)of)GDP)and)then)in)terms)of)employment.)Fast)growing)industries)were) initially)concentrated)in)space)and)dispersed)thereafter.)These)patterns)of)spatial)concentration) are) in) line) with) the) growth) pole) concept) proposed) by) Perroux) (1955):) initially) denser) regions) generate)growth)through)innovation)and)structural)change)before)generating)more)employment) and) transmitting) growth) to) surrounding) regions.) During) the) second) half) of) the) 20th) century) a) series) of) institutional) developments) have) limited) spatial) economic) concentration.) These) are) increasing)tax)competition)at)the)cantonal)and)municipal)level,)fiscal)transfers)from)rich)to)poor) regions,) tax) exemption) of) commuter) costs,) and) cantonal) protectionism.) Generally,) a) deeply) anchored) “Grossstadtkritik”) dominated) Swiss) mentality.) Only) in) the) 21st) century) regional) planning)has)become)less)anti=urban)(Walter)2011;)Walter)2013).)) Regional)inequality)in)labor)productivity)followed)a)bell=shaped)curve)between)1860)and)1990.) This) result) is) very) robust,) because) it) can) be) observed) at) the) level) of) micro=regions) and) at) the) level) of) the) larger) labor) market) basins.) It) is) also) discernible) among) the) micro=regions) within) several) labor) market) basins.) A) bell=shaped) evolution) of) regional) inequality) was) also) found) in) several) other) countries) (Williamson) 1965;) Martínez=Galarraga) et) al.) forthcoming;) Felice) 2010;) Kim) 1998).) It) contrasts,) however,) with) the) findings) of) Combes) et) al) (2011)) and) Enflo) et) al) (2010),) who) find) continuous) convergence) of) labor) productivity) among) French) and) among) Swedish)regions.)After)1990,)there)has)been)a)renewed)upswing)of)regional)inequality.)A)similar) divergence)at)the)end)of)the)20th)century)was)observed)in)Sweden)(Enflo)et)al.)2010))and)Italy) (Felice)2010).) These)patterns)of)spatial)economic)concentration)have)had)a)particular)impact)on)Swiss)growth.) During) the) period) 1860) to) 1930,) agglomeration) economies) have) become) gradually) more) important)and)shifted)the)productivity)levels)of)the)densest)regions)upward.)This)effect)was)re= enforced) by) a) positive) feedback) from) productivity) on) agglomeration.) Circular) causality) of) this) type)is)the)very)essence)of)spatial)economic)models)(Fujita)et)al.)2001;)Glaeser)2008).)Between) 1941) and) 1990,) the) strength) of) agglomeration) economies) has) decreased) and) circular) causality) was)broken.)Since)2001)the)effect)has)been)stronger)again,)but)it)did)not)imply)circular)causality.)


265)

Different) forms) of) agglomeration) economies) can) be) distinguished.) In) manufacturing,) employment) density) and) the) area) size) of) the) region) were) equally) important,) but) in) services) density) was) essential.) Diversity) of) the) economic) structure) was) very) important) in) services.) The) policies)seeking)to)limit)spatial)economic)agglomeration)seem)to)have)reduced)the)positive)effect) of)density.)In)manufacturing)this)was)compensated)by)an)augmented)positive)effect)of)area)size,) but)in)the)service)sector)this)compensation)did)not)take)place.)Hence,)after)the)rise)of)the)service) economy)anti=urban)policies)have)become)a)growth=limiting)factor.) At)the)bottom)line,)the)rapid)build)up)of)agglomeration)economies)between)1860)and)1930)has) contributed) to) Switzerland’s) most) important) growth) period,) while) the) limitation) of) agglomeration) has) contributed) to) Switzerland’s) growth) slack) after) 1970.) The) revival) of) urban) regions) after) 2001) went) again) together) with) larger) agglomeration) economies) and) faster) economic)growth.)

The'contributions'of'this'thesis:' This) thesis) makes) significant) contributions) in) three) domains:) Swiss) and) European) economic) history;)historical)economic)geography;)and)methodology.)

Contributions*to*Swiss*and*European*economic*history* The)availability)of)a)reliable)and)accurate)GDP)series)is)an)essential)pre=requisite)for)the)analysis) of)economic)growth)and)its)determinants.)Swiss)economic)history)has)long)been)limited)by)the) lack) of) reliable) data.) The) GDP) and) value) added) series) developed) in) this) thesis) provide) the) essential)ingredient)for)future)research)on)Swiss)economic)growth.)The)major)work)for)this)new) series) was) carried) out) by) the) researchers) who) elaborated) the) original) sources) that) I) used) (see) paper)1).)I)only)changed)the)deflation)method,)but)this)change)has)enormous)implications)and) resolves)a)paradox)that)was)inherent)to)the)Swiss)GDP)data:)in)time)series)projections)historical) GDP) levels) appeared) to) be) much) higher) than) in) direct) benchmark) comparisons.) My) series) resolves)this)problem)by)showing)that)Swiss)GDP)growth)has)been)clearly)underestimated)due) to)double)deflation.)My)argument)is)backed)by)theoretical)considerations)on)deflation)methods) and)evidence)on)relative)price)changes)in)Switzerland.)International)benchmark)comparisons)of) GDP)and)international)wage)comparisons)corroborate)my)series)and)reject)that)of)the)Maddison) update.)An)accurate)series)of)Swiss)GDP)is)essential)not)only)for)Swiss)economic)history)but)also) for) international) databases) such) as) the) one) proposed) by) the) Maddison) project) (Bolt) &) van) Zanden)2013).) The) elaboration) of) a) regional) database) with) very) much) detail) in) the) regional) and) sectorial) dimensions)is)also)a)valuable)contribution.)It)provides)more)data)on)the)Swiss)economy,)mainly) for)the)regional)but)also)for)the)industrial)dimension.)Multidimensional)data)allows)for)a)deeper)

266)


investigation) of) the) origins) of) Swiss) growth.) Moreover) such) databases) provide) essential) information) for) regional) and) local) historians.) Regional) datasets) of) the) European) economy) are) also) being) elaborated) now.) These) projects) will) have) to) integrate) Swiss) regions) as) well.) My) database)is)certainly)the)best)candidate)for)this.) My)analysis)of)the)spatial)patterns)of)the)Swiss)economy)and)their)growth)impact)complements) the)existing)rather)qualitative)literature)on)regional)development)in)Switzerland)with)a)general) perspective)and)more)quantitative)results.)Until)now)most)studies)that)integrated)geographical) elements)have)focused)at)one)or)a)few)regions)only)and)no)study)has)attempted)a)quantitative) evaluation)of)agglomeration)economies)in)Switzerland)over)a)long)time)span.)) My) analysis) throws) a) particularly) interesting) light) on) specialized) clusters) and) decentralization) policies.) Landes) (1979)) and) many) others) have) highlighted) the) proficiency) developed) in) Swiss) industrial) clusters) and) the) very) fact) that) these) clusters) exist) provides) a) certain) proof) for) this) argument..) However,) I) found) no) convincing) evidence) for) localization) economies) after) 1860.) In) fact,)specialization)has)had)a)significant)negative)effect)in)most)analyses:)this)concerns)the)effect) on)productivity)and)productivity)growth)at)the)sectoral)level)and)on)employment)growth)at)the) industry)level.)However,)I)could)not)test)the)productivity)effect)at)the)industry)level,)because)the) necessary) data) is) lacking.) It) is) possible) that) localization) economies) had) a) positive) effect) on) industry) productivity,) but) it) is) certain) that) these) productivity) gains) did) not) lead) to) higher) employment) growth.) Possibly,) localization) economies) were) productivity) increasing) and) labor) saving,)but)this)remains)to)be)proven.) This) thesis) also) raises) questions) about) the) growth) impact) of) a) series) of) institutions) aiming) to) prevent) spatial) economic) concentration) during) the) second) half) of) the) 20th) century.) My) contention) is) that) these) policies) have) not) only) limited) spatial) concentration) but) also) the) dynamism) of) the) major) Swiss) growth) poles,) limiting) thereby) national) economic) growth,) in) particular)after)the)rise)of)the)service)economy.))

Contributions*to*historical*economic*geography* My) thesis) provides) a) first) step) toward) integrating) Switzerland) in) the) international) historical) economic) geography) literature.) Switzerland) is) complementary) to) the) countries) that) have) been) studied) most) in) this) literature,) because) it) is) characterized) by) weaker) spatial) economic) concentration.)The)fact)that)Switzerland)has)inherited)a)more)neutral)urban)network)from)pre= industrial)development)than)Spain,)Italy,)the)UK,)and)France)as)well)as)the)possibility)to)study) the)impact)of)decentralization)policies)make)Switzerland)an)interesting)case.) So) far,) the) historical) economic) geography) literature) has) not) really) investigated) the) relation) between)agglomeration)and)economic)growth.)In)this)respect,)my)thesis)brings)a)new)dimension) to)the)international)literature.)My)study)is)also)complementary)in)the)sense)that)it)focuses)at)a)


267)

lower) geographical) level.) This) allows) investigating) not) only) the) wider) regional) disparities) but) also) the) urbanization) process.) Hence,) my) analysis) comes) closer) to) the) urban) economics) literature,) while) the) studies) that) focus) at) a) higher) geographical) level) are) closer) to) the) new) economic)geography)literature.) My)thesis)delivers)not)only)an)additional)study,)but)it)provides)a)precious)new)dataset.)This)data) can)be)used)for)the)analysis)of)many)additional)aspects)of)historical)economic)geography)and)–) as)already)mentioned)–)it)should)be)integrated)into)European)datasets.)

Methodological*contributions* Pointing) out) the) potential) problems) that) can) arise) from) double) deflation,) when) constructing) historical) GDP) series) is) one) of) the) major) contributions) of) this) thesis.) The) fact) that) double) deflation)excludes)the)gains)and)losses)that)arise)from)relative)price)changes)can)lead)to)serious) under=)or)overestimation)of)GDP)growth.)If)GDP)is)projected)backward)or)forward)from)a)single) benchmark,) this) measurement) problem) can) lead) to) important) biases) of) GDP) levels,) so) that) a) cross=section) comparison) becomes) meaningless.) This) problem) is) very) severe) for) the) case) of) Switzerland,) but) it) might) also) have) a) significant) impact) on) other) countries,) in) particular) small) open)economies.)) For)the)elaboration)of)my)regional)employment)statistics,)I)have)developed)a)number)of)methods) that) might) also) be) applicable) in) other) contexts.) The) methods) used) to) harmonize) industrial) classifications) were) tailor=made) to) each) case,) but) the) common) strategy) of) most) of) the) applications,) which) consisted) of) exploiting) the) geographical) detail) of) the) data) in) order) to) reconstruct) sub=industries,) can) serve) as) a) guideline) for) other) projects.) The) method) to) convert) industry) employment) statistics) from) residential) count) to) workplace) count) is) straightforward) and) can) be) used) whenever) total) numbers) of) in) and) out) commuters) and) the) regional) economic) structure) are) known.) The) method) used) to) estimate) the) district=industry) matrix) for) 1930) and) 1941) consists) of) combining) different) data) sources) including) industrial) maps.) In) order) to) make) these) sources) compatible) I) used) iterative) proportional) fitting) (Deming) &) Stephan) 1940;) Bacharach)1965).)This)general)procedure)can)be)useful)in)any)context)where)interior)cells)of)a) crosstab) are) unknown) and) alternative) sources) can) provide) information.) I) also) proposed) an) alternative) to) the) Geary=Stark) (2002)) method) to) decompose) national) GDP) into) subnational) aggregates) for) cases) where) wage) data) is) lacking.) My) approach) consisted) of) compensating) the) lacking)wage)data)with)a)much)more)detailed)industrial)classification)for)employment)and)value) added.)

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The'agenda'for'future'research' In)this)thesis,)I)have)elaborated)regional)data)and)analyzed)the)relation)between)agglomeration) and)economic)growth)in)Switzerland.)Given)the)large)gaps)that)had)to)be)closed)in)terms)of)data) before) starting) the) analysis,) my) enquiry) had) to) be) limited) to) a) description) of) the) evolution) of) spatial) economic) concentration) and) the) measurement) of) agglomeration) economies.) However,) many) questions) remain) open) in) Swiss) historical) economic) geography,) notably) market) integration) and) the) determinants) of) industry) location) should) be) studied) more) in) depth.) Moreover,)there)is)a)lot)of)scope)for)international)comparisons)in)the)field)of)historical)economic) geography.) Market) integration) has) not) been) studied) very) much) in) Switzerland.) Transport) historians) have) shown) the) extraordinary) acceleration) of) the) Swiss) transport) system) and) the) changes) in) accessibility) of) different) regions,) but) their) analyses) have) mainly) focused) on) travel) times) for) people)rather)than)goods)and)accessibility)to)populations)rather)than)markets)(Frey)2006;)Frey) 1997;) Axhausen) et) al.) 2006).) For) the) analysis) of) market) integration) and) the) impact) of) transportation) on) (regional)) economic) development) freight) costs) and) accessibility) to) markets) are) conceptually) more) appealing.) A) combination) of) my) regional) GDP) estimates) with) the) data) elaborated) by) transport) historians) will) allow) estimating) market) potential) for) Swiss) regions.) Access) to) international) markets) should) also) be) included.) Unfortunately,) Swiss) transport) historians)have)usually)limited)themselves)to)accessibility)within)Switzerland)only.)) Apart)from)transportation)little)is)known)about)the)determinants)of)trade)costs)and)the)degree) of)integration)of)Swiss)regions.)No)study)has)analyzed)price)convergence)among)Swiss)regions42.) Transport) costs) are) not) the) only) barriers) to) market) integration.) Several) international) studies) have) shown) that) ethno=linguistic) and) administrative) delimitations) can) have) important) border) effects) (Nitsch) &) Wolf) 2009;) Heinemeyer) et) al.) 2008;) Schulze) &) Wolf) 2012).) Most) probably) cantonal,) confessional,) linguistic,) and) topographic) borders) have) had) important) trade) diverting) effects)in)Switzerland.)) More) work) is) also) needed) on) the) location) of) industries) and) its) determinants.) For) this) type) of) research) the) data) elaborated) in) this) thesis) will) serve) as) a) major) input.) As) highlighted) in) the) introduction,) Swiss) historians) have) insisted) on) regional) endowments) as) a) determinant) of) industry)location)and)technological)choices.)But)other)factors)might)have)been)just)as)important:) namely) market) potential) and) industry) co=location) patterns.) The) international) historical) economic) geography) literature) provides) a) number) of) studies) that) have) nested) several) of) these)

))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) 42)Chilosi)et)al.)(2013))investigate)market)integration)among)European)cities.)They)have)integrated)6)Swiss)

cities)in)their)dataset.)


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determinants) in) one) single) model) in) order) to) evaluate) their) relative) importance) (Wolf) 2005;) Crafts)&)Mulatu)2006;)Martinez=Galarraga)2012;)Klein)&)Crafts)2012;)Crafts)&)Wolf)2013).) Industry)locations)might)well)be)dependent)on)the)degree)of)maturity)of)an)industry.)Duranton) and)Puga)(2001))developed)a)theoretical)model)of)firm)location,)where)young)firms)profit)from) dynamic)Jacobs)externalities)and)choose)to)locate)in)diversified)regions,)whereas)mature)firms) profit) from) static) localization) economies) and) choose) to) locate) in) specialized) regions.) This) mechanism)can)easily)be)transposed)from)the)firm)level)to)the)industry)level.)In)paper)3)of)this) thesis)I)argued)that)new,)fast=growing)industries)tended)to)be)concentrated)in)space)and)diffuse) thereafter.) A) more) thorough) investigation) of) the) location) patterns) of) industries) over) their) life= cycle) might) well) confirm) that) new) industries) were) more) likely) to) appear) in) more) diversified) regions.) Such) an) analysis) of) industries) location) over) their) life=cycle) can) provide) a) better) understanding)of)the)functioning)of)Swiss)growth)poles.) Paper) III) of) this) thesis) could) be) extended) in) various) meaningful) ways.) First,) market) potential) should) be) included) as) an) additional) explanatory) factor) in) order) to) take) the) implications) of) the) new) economic) geography) literature) into) consideration.) This) would) also) permit) to) connect) the) large) literature) on) Swiss) transport) history) to) the) analysis) of) economic) growth) in) Switzerland.) Second,)interactions)between)density)and)human)capital)formation)should)be)analyzed,)because) the)urban)growth)literature)emphasizes)the)importance)of)human)capital)externalities)(Eaton)&) Eckstein)1997;)Black)&)Henderson)1999;)Glaeser)1999).)Human)capital)is)one)of)the)supposedly) important) sources) of) Swiss) growth.) It) is) important) to) assess) the) role) of) urbanization) in) this) context.)Third,)in)order)to)separate)agglomeration)economies)from)agglomeration)costs,)proxies) for) congestion) and) crowding) should) also) be) included.) This) could) provide) a) deeper) understanding) how) impediments) on) agglomeration) can) become) growth=limiting) factors.) Local) congestion)and)crowding)might)for)example)be)an)explanatory)factor)for)Geneva’s)falling)behind) Zurich.) Apart) from) the) integration) of) Switzerland) in) European) datasets,) there) is) also) scope) for) international)comparisons.)In)the)introduction)I)have)carried)out)a)preliminary)investigation)of) the) relation) between) urbanization) and) growth) in) international) perspective.) As) it) turns) out,) countries)with)lower)urbanization)in)1850)experienced)faster)growth)from)1850)to)1910.)This) correlation) should) be) investigated) further) and) for) other) time) periods.) Have) the) USA,) Sweden,) Germany,)and)Switzerland)really)had)an)advantage)in)terms)of)spatial)structure?)How)important) was) this) advantage) really) for) their) rapid) growth) during) the) second) half) of) the) 19th) century?) Might)there)be)something)like)an)urban)systems)life=cycle?)In)short,)much)remains)to)be)done)on) the)relation)between)agglomeration)and)growth.) ) )

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