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Supporting Information for: Untangling the proximal and underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation to inform conservation policy in transitional Myanmar Appendix S1. Full list of sources for case studies and background information. Appendix S2. Tables showing the frequencies of drivers coded from case studies. Appendix S3. Source of evidence for each link in the causal networks. Appendix S4. Illustration of the causal network construction process.

Appendix S1. Full list of sources for case studies and background information. 1. Documents that provided sources for the case studies we analyzed (n=38): Andersen KE. 2015. Study of Upland Customary Communal Tenure in China and Shan States. Land Core Group. Available from http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs21/Andersen_K.E._2016-02Communal_tenure_in_Chin_and_Shan_States-corr.pdf. Aung M. 2007. Policy and practice in Myanmar’s protected area system. Journal of Environmental Management 84:188–203. Aung M, Khaing Swe K, Oo T, Kyaw Moe K, Leimgruber P, Allendorf T, Duncan C, Wemmer C. 2004. The environmental history of Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary, a protected area in Myanmar (Burma). Journal of Environmental Management 72:205–216. Brenner D. 2015. Ashes of co-optation: from armed group fragmentation to the rebuilding of popular insurgency in Myanmar. Conflict, Security & Development 15:337–358. Buchanan J, Kramer T, Woods K. 2013. Developing Disparity - Regional Investment in Burma’s Borderlands. Transnational Institute and Burma Centre Netherlands. Available from http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs14/Burmasborderlands-red.pdf. Burma Environmental Working Group. 2011. Burma’s Environment: People, Problems, Policies. Wanida Press, Chiang Mai, Thailand. Available from: http://www.bewg.org/pubs/finish/4/34. Dapice D. 2003. Current Economic Conditions in Myanmar and Options for Sustainable Growth. Global Development and Environment Institute Working Paper No. 03-04. Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University. Available from http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/publications/working_papers/03-04myanmar.PDF. Donald PF, Round PD, Thiri Dai We Aung, Grindley M, Steinmetz R, Nay Myo Shwe, Buchanan GM. 2015. Social reform and a growing crisis for southern Myanmar’s unique forests. Conservation Biology 29:1485–1488. EcoDev. 2016. Myanmar Forest Cover Change 2002-2014. ALARM, Smithsonian Institution, GMPA, and American Museum of Natural History. Subsequently published as: Bhagwat T, Hess A, Horning N, Khaing T, Thein ZM, Aung KM, et al. (2017) Losing a jewel—Rapid declines in Myanmar’s intact forests from 2002-2014. PLoS ONE 12(5): e0176364. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176364. Original document available from: http://www.myanmaraffairs.com/sites/default/files/upload_pdf/MyanmarForestCoverChange 2002-2014_Report.pdf EIA. 2015. Organised chaos - the illicit overland timber trade between Myanmar and China. Environmental Investigation Agency. Available from https://eia-international.org/wpcontent/uploads/EIA-Organised-Chaos-FINAL-lr1.pdf. Global Witness. 2003. A Conflict of Interests: The Uncertain Future of Burma’s Forests: a Briefing Document. Global Witness. Available from: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/archive/conflict-interest-english/ Global Witness. 2009. A Disharmonious Trade: China and the Continued Destruction of Burma’s Northern Frontier Forests. Global Witness. Available from https://www.globalwitness.org/en/archive/disharmonious-trade-china-and-continueddestruction-burmas-northern-frontier-forests/. Global Witness. 2014. What future for the Rubber Industry in Myanmar. Global Witness. Available from: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/land-deals/what-future-rubberproduction-myanmar/. Global Witness. 2015. Guns, Cronies and Crops: How military, political and business cronies conspired to grab land in Myanmar. Global Witness. Available from https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/land-deals/guns-cronies-and-crops/. Htun K. 2009. Myanmar Forestry Outlook Study. Working paper No. APFOS II/WP/2009/07. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. Available from http://www.fao.org/3/a-am252e.pdf. Htun NZ, Mizoue N, Kajisa T, Yoshida S. 2009. Deforestation and forest degradation as measures of Popa Mountain Park (Myanmar) effectiveness. Environmental Conservation 36:218–224.

Htun NZ, Mizoue N, Yoshida S. 2013. Changes in Determinants of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Popa Mountain Park, Central Myanmar. Environmental Management 51:423–434. Hudson-Rodd N, Nyunt M. 2001. Control of Land and Life in Burma. Land Tenure Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Available from https://minds.wisconsin.edu/handle/1793/22009. Kahrl F, Weyerhaeuser H, Su Y. 1995. China and forest trade in the Asia-Pacific region: Implications for forests and livelihoods. An overview of the market chain for China‘s timber product imports from Myanmar. Forest Trends. Available from http://www.foresttrends.org/documents/files/doc_152.pdf. Khai TC, Mizoue N, Kajisa T, Ota T, Yoshida S. 2016. Stand structure, composition and illegal logging in selectively logged production forests of Myanmar: Comparison of two compartments subject to different cutting frequency. Global Ecology and Conservation 7:132–140. Kramer T, Woods K. 2012. Financing Dispossession - China’s Opium Substitution Programme in Northern Burma. Available from: https://www.tni.org/files/download/tnifinancingdispossesion-web.pdf. Leimgruber P, Kelly DS, Steininger MK, Brunner J, Müller T, Songer M. 2005. Forest cover change patterns in Myanmar (Burma) 1990–2000. Environmental Conservation 32:356–364. McCarthy S. 2014. Democratic change and forest governance in the Asia Pacific: Implications for Myanmar. East-West Centre. Available from: http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs22/McCarthy__Democratic_Change_Forest_Management.pdf. McCoy C. 2007. Turning Treasure Into Tears: Mining, Dams, and Deforestation in Shwegyin Township, Pegu Division, Burma. EarthRights International. Available from https://www.earthrights.org/publication/turning-treasure-tears. Mon MS, Kajisa T, Mizoue N, Yoshida S. 2009. Factors affecting deforestation in Paunglaung watershed, Myanmar using remote sensing and GIS. Journal of Forest Planning (Japan). Available from http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=JP2010000765 (accessed March 14, 2017). Mon MS, Mizoue N, Htun NZ, Kajisa T, Yoshida S. 2012. Factors affecting deforestation and forest degradation in selectively logged production forest: A case study in Myanmar. Forest Ecology and Management 267:190–198. Rao M, Rabinowitz A, Khaing ST. 2002. Status Review of the Protected-Area System in Myanmar, with Recommendations for Conservation Planning. Conservation Biology 16:360–368. Songer M, Aung M, Senior B, DeFries R, Leimgruber P. 2008. Spatial and temporal deforestation dynamics in protected and unprotected dry forests: a case study from Myanmar (Burma). Biodiversity and Conservation 18:1001–1018. Sovacool BK. 2012. Environmental Conservation Problems and Possible Solutions in Myanmar. Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs 34:217–248. Springate-Baginski O, Treue T, Kyaw Htun. 2016. Legally and illegally logged out - the status of Myanmar’s timber sector and options for reform. EcoDev/ALARM. Yangon, Myanmar. Available from: http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs22/Final_Extent_and_Drivers_of_deforestation_and_Fore st_Degradation_in_Myanmar.pdf. Srinivas S, Hlaing US. 2015. Myanmar: Land Tenure and the Impact on Development. FAO. Available from http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs21/FAO-2015-05-Myanmarland_tenure&rural_development-en-tpo-red.pdf. Webb EL, Jackowski NRA, Phelps J, Friess DA, Maung Maung Than, Ziegler AD. 2014. Deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta and the conservation implications of an internationally-engaged Myanmar. Global Environmental Change 24:321–333. Woods K. 2011. Ceasefire capitalism: military–private partnerships, resource concessions and military–state building in the Burma–China borderlands. The Journal of Peasant Studies 38:747–770. Woods K. 2012. The Political Ecology of Rubber Production in Myanmar: an overview. Yangon, Myanmar. Available from:

http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs20/The_Political_Ecology_of_Rubber_Production_in_Mya nmar.pdf Woods K. 2013. Timber Trade Flows and Actors in Myanmar: The Political Economy of Myanmar’s Timber Trade. Forest Trends, Washington D.C. Available from: http://www.foresttrends.org/documents/files/doc_4133.pdf. Woods K. 2015. Commercial Agriculture Expansion in Myanmar: Links to Deforestation, Conversion Timber, and Land Conflicts. Forest Trends, Washington D.C. Available from: http://forest-trends.org/releases/uploads/Conversion_Timber_in_Myanmar.pdf. Woods K, Canby K. 2011. Baseline Study 4, Myanmar: Overview of Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade. Forest Trends, Washington D.C. Available from: http://foresttrends.org/releases/uploads/Conversion_Timber_in_Myanmar.pdf. Zaw K, Lwin NN, Nyein KT, Thandar M. 2011. Agricultural transformation, institutional changes, and rural development in Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar. Pages 307–355 in P. S. J. Intal, S. Oum, and M. J. O. Simorangkir, editors. Agricultural Development, Trade and Regional Cooperation in Developing East Asia. Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, Jakarta, Indonesia. Available from http://www.eria.org/publications/key_reports/agricultural-development-trade-and-regionalcooperation-in-developing-east-asia.html.

2. Other documents that we obtained through our literature search (n=79). These did not meet our criteria for inclusion as case studies, but in many cases provided useful contextual information for our study. Allendorf TD, Aung M, Songer M. 2012. Using residents’ perceptions to improve park-people relationships in Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary, Myanmar. Journal of Environmental Management 99:36–43. Allendorf T, Swe KK, Oo T, Htut Y, Aung M, Aung M, Allendorf K, Hayek L-A, Leimgruber P, Wemmer C. 2006. Community attitudes toward three protected areas in Upper Myanmar (Burma). Environmental Conservation 33:344–352. Aung HM, Roachanakanan R, Sucharitakul S, Pumijumnong N. 2010. Levels of People Participation in Community Based Forest Management of the Dry Zone Area in Myanmar: A Case Study of Chaung U, Nyaung U and Taungdwingyi Townships words: Levels of Participation / Community Based Forest Management / Dry Zone Area of Myanmar. Environment and Natural Resources Journal 8:13–23. Aung M. 2016. In situ nutrient degradation of conventional diets commonly fed to dairy cows in central Myanmar. Journal of Aridland Agriculture 1:36–42. Aung PS, Adam YO, Pretzsch J, Peters R. 2015. Distribution of forest income among rural households: a case study from Natma Taung national park, Myanmar. Forests, Trees and Livelihoods 24:190–201. Bissinger J. 2012. Foreign Investment in Myanmar: A Resource Boom but a Development Bust? Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs 34:23–52. Brunner J, Talbott K, Elkin C. 1998. Logging Burma’s frontier forests: resources and the regime. World Resources Institute. Available from: http://pdf.wri.org/loggingburmasfrontierforests_bw.pdf. Castrén T. 1999. Timber Trade and Wood Flow-Study - Myanmar. Page 25. Regional Environmental Technical Assistance 5771, Poverty Reduction and Environmental Management in Remote Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Watersheds Project (Phase I). Available from: http://www.mekonginfo.org/assets/midocs/0003573-environment-timbertrade-and-wood-flow-study-regional-report.pdf. Chan N, Takeda S. 2016. The Transition Away From Swidden Agriculture and Trends in Biomass Accumulation in Fallow Forests: Case Studies in the Southern Chin Hills of Myanmar. Mountain Research and Development 36:320–331. Chan N, Takeda S, Suzuki R, Yamamoto S. 2013. Establishment of allometric models and estimation of biomass recovery of swidden cultivation fallows in mixed deciduous forests of the Bago Mountains, Myanmar. Forest Ecology and Management 304:427–436. Chong KY. 2012. Religiously protecting Myanmar’s environment. Science 337:1604–1605. Dah SE. 2004. Teak and Forest Management in Myanmar. ITTO Tropical Forest Update 14:12–13. Dapice D. 2010. Recapitalizing the Rural Economy. Pages 77–85 in A. Rieffel, editor. Myanmar/Burma: Inside Challenges, Outside Interests. Brookings Institution Press, Washington D.C., USA. Donald PF et al. 2009. Population, distribution, habitat use and breeding of Gurney’s Pitta Pitta gurneyi in Myanmar and Thailand. Bird Conservation International 19:353–366. Emerton L, Yan Min Aung. 2013. The Economic Value of Forest Ecosystem Services in Myanmar and Options for Sustainable Financing. International Management Group, Yangon. Available from: http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs22/IMG_2013_Myanmar_forest_valuation__full_report.pdf. FAO/RECOFTC. 2016. Forest landscape restoration for Asia-Pacific Forests. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations and RECOFTC, Bangkok, Thailand. Available from http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5412e.pdf#page=89.%20ISBN%20978-92-5-109094-7. Ferraro CP, Jensen D, Disla C. 2013. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor, Map, and Forecast Mangrove Extent and Deforestation in Myanmar for Enhanced Conservation. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013. Available from: https://d3gxp3iknbs7bs.cloudfront.net/attachments/8826d365-c75c-4f44-bc29ff995b1c5c9a.pdf.

Findlay R, Park C-Y, Verbiest J-PA. 2016. Myanmar: building economic foundations. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 30:42–64. Fink C. 2008. Militarization in Burma’s ethnic states: causes and consequences. Contemporary Politics 14:447–462. Forestry Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 2010. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010, Country Report: Myanmar. United Nations. Available from http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/al576E/al576E.pdf. Fukushima M, Kanzaki M, Thein HM, Minn Y. 2007. Recovery Process of Fallow Vegetation in the Traditional Karen Swidden Cultivation System in the Bago Mountain Range, Myanmar (Special Issue: Ecological Resource Use and Social Change in the Minority Regions of Myanmar). Available from http://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dspace/handle/2433/56797 (accessed March 14, 2017).. Hamilton SE, Casey D. 2016. Creation of a high spatio-temporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st century (CGMFC-21). Global Ecology and Biogeography 25:729–738. Hedley PJ, Bird MI, Robinson R a J. 2010. Evolution of the Irrawaddy delta region since 1850. Geographical Journal 176:138–149. Htun K. 2014. Sustainable Mining in Myanmar. Applied Environmental Research 36:25–35. Htun NZ, Mizoue N, Yoshida S. 2011. Tree Species Composition and Diversity at Different Levels of Disturbance in Popa Mountain Park, Myanmar. Biotropica 43:597–603. Htwe TN. 2015. Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar. PhD Thesis (Doktor der Agarwissenschaft). University of Kassel, Witzenhausen. Available from https://kobra.bibliothek.uni-kassel.de/handle/urn:nbn:de:hebis:34-2016042250167 (accessed March 15, 2017). James H. 2003. Cooperation and Community Empowerment in Myanmar in the context of Myanmar Agenda 21. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 17:1–21. Kattelus M, Rahaman MM, Varis O. 2014. Myanmar under reform: Emerging pressures on water, energy and food security. Natural Resources Forum 38:85–98. Kaung B, Cho KM. 2003. Forest Plantation Management between Centralized and Participatory Planning — A Case Study of East Pegu Yoma Project (EPP), Myanmar. Technological and Institutional Innovations for Sustainable Rural Development. Göttingen, Germany. Khaine I, Woo SY. 2014. Study on the extent of support of current forest management to local people by comparing natural forests and plantation forests in Myanmar. Forest Science and Technology 10:172–177. Khaine I, Woo SY, Kang H. 2014. A study of the role of forest and forest-dependent community in Myanmar. Forest Science and Technology 10:197–200. Kollert W, Walotek PJ. 2015. Global Teak Trade in the Aftermath of Myanmar’s Log Export Ban. 49, Planted Forests and Trees Working Paper Series. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. Available from http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5023e.pdf. Kong I-H, Baek G-H, Lee D-K. 2013. Land cover change and forest fragmentation analysis for Naypyidaw, Myanmar. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 22:147–156. Lin H. 2005. Community Forestry Initiatives in Myanmar: An Analysis from a Social Perspective. International Forestry Review 7:27–36. Lwin KK, Shibasake R. 1998. Monitoring and analysis of deforestation process using satellite imagery and GIS (Case Study in Myanmar). Available from https://www.geospatialworld.net/article/monitoring-and-analysis-of-deforestation-processusing-satellite-imagery-and-gis-case-study-in-myanmar/ (accessed March 14, 2017). Lwin KM, Durst PB, Bishop A. 1995. Non-Wood Forest Products in Myanmar. Pages 227–236 Beyond timber: social, economic and cultural dimensions of non-wood forest products in Asia and the Pacific. FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. Available from http://www.fao.org/3/a-x5336e.pdf. Lwin M, Lan LL. 2001. Myanmar. Thunderbird International Business Review 43:269–288. Lynam AJ, Khaing S tun, Zaw KM. 2006. Developing a National Tiger Action Plan for the Union of Myanmar. Environmental Management 37:30–39.

MacDonald B. 2013, June 12. The Environmental Effects of Forced Displacement in Burma’s Karenni State. Thesis. Available from https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/handle/1807/35502 (accessed June 17, 2016). Macqueen D. 2013. Stronger forest and farm producers’ groups can help deepen Myanmar democracy. International Institute for Environment and Development. Available from http://pubs.iied.org/17186IIED/?c=forest. Macqueen D. 2015. Community forest business in Myanmar: Pathway to peace and prosperity? International Institute for Environment and Development. Available from http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/G04020.pdf. Maung TM, Yamamoto M. 2008. Exploring the Socio-Economic Situation of Plantation Villagers: A Case Study in Myanmar Bago Yoma. Small-scale Forestry 7:29–48. Moe KT, Liu J. 2016. Economic Contribution of Non-timber Forest Products (NTFPs) to Rural Livelihoods in the Tharawady District of Myanmar. International Journal of Sciences 5:12– 21. Mon MS, Kajisa T, Mizoue N, Yoshida S. 2010. Monitoring Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the Bago Mountain Area, Myanmar using FCD Mapper. Journal of Forest Planning 15:63–72. Myint T. 2009. Environmental Governance in the SPDC’s Myanmar. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 1463157. Social Science Research Network, Rochester, NY. Available from https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1463157 (accessed March 14, 2017). Myint ZW. 2010. Forest law enforcement and governance in Myanmar. Pages 131–142 in M. J. Pescott, P. B. Durst, and R. N. Leslie, editors. Forest law enforcement and governance: progress in Asia and the Pacfic. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand. Available from http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1593e/i1593e00.pdf. Myo KK, Thwin S, Khaing N. 2016. Floristic Composition, Structure and Soil Properties of Mixed Deciduous Forest and Deciduous Dipterocarp Forest: Case Study in Madan Watershed, Myanmar. American Journal of Plant Sciences 07:279. Oo N. 2002. Present state and problems of mangrove management in Myanmar. Trees 16:218– 223. Oo WP, Koike F. 2015. Dry forest community types and their predicted distribution based on a habitat model for the central dry zone of Myanmar. Forest Ecology and Management 358:108–121. Rabinowitz A, Schaller GB, Uga U. 1995. A survey to assess the status of Sumatran rhinoceros and other large mammal species in Tamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary, Myanmar. Oryx 29:123– 128. Regalado L, Schmidt AR, Müller P, Kobbert MJ, Schneider H, Heinrichs J. 2017. The first fossil of Lindsaeaceae (Polypodiales) from the Cretaceous amber forest of Myanmar. Cretaceous Research 72:8–12. Renner SC, Rappole JH, Leimgruber P, Kelly DS, Shwe NM, Aung T, Aung M. 2007. Land cover in the Northern Forest Complex of Myanmar: new insights for conservation. Oryx 41:27–37. Renwick N. 2014. China’s Role in Burma’s Development. IDS Bulletin 45:70–84. Sann B, Kanzaki M, Aung M, Htay KM. 2016a. Assessment of the Recovery of a Secondary Tropical Dry Forest After Human Disturbance in Central Myanmar. Journal of Tropical Forest Science 28:479–489. Sann B, Kanzaki M, Ohta S. 2016b. Vegetation patterns and species-filtering effects of soil in secondary succession in a tropical dry forest in central Myanmar. Journal of Tropical Ecology 32:116–124. Saw AA, Kanzaki M. 2015. Local Livelihoods and Encroachment into a Mangrove Forest Reserve: A Case Study of the Wunbaik Reserved Mangrove Forest, Myanmar. Procedia Environmental Sciences 28:483–492. Shimizu K, Ponce-Hernandez R, Ahmed OS, Ota T, Win ZC, Mizoue N, Yoshida S. 2016. The effects of topographic correction and gap filling in imagery on the detection of tropical forest disturbances using a Landsat time series in Myanmar. International Journal of Remote Sensing 37:3655–3674.

Shrestha KB et al. 2000. Participatory Forest Management In Myanmar: Implications for Policy and Human Resource Development in Mountain Areas. Department of Forests, Myanmar; Institute of Forestry, Yezin, Myanmar; international Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Yezin, Myanmar. Available from http://lib.icimod.org/record/21715. Sovacool BK. 2013. Confronting energy poverty behind the bamboo curtain: A review of challenges and solutions for Myanmar (Burma). Energy for Sustainable Development 17:305–314. Springate-Baginski O, Thein AK, Neil A, Thu WM, Doherty F. 2014. Democratising timber: An assessment of Myanmar’s emerging “Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade” (FLEGT) process. Forest Policy and Economics 48:33–45. Takeda S, Suzuki R, Hla MT. 2008. Monitoring of shifting cultivation fields in a Karen area of the Bago Mountains, Myanmar. Forest Research Institute Malaysia (FRIM). Available from http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=MY2011050100 (accessed March 14, 2017). Talbott K, Brown M. 1998. Forest plunder in Southeast Asia: an environmental security nexus in Burma and Cambodia. Environmental Change and Security Project Report:53–60. Than MM. 1999. Land use and land degradation status in Myanmar, desertification, land degradation, deforestation, drought and their environment. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. Than MM. 2015. Drivers of forest change in the greater Mekong sub-region - Myanmar Country Report. USAID Lowering Emissions in Asia’s Forests (USAID LEAF). Available from http://www.leafasia.org/sites/default/files/public/resources/Myanmar%20Final-RevisedNov2015.pdf. Thaung NO. 2004. Status of Forest Genetic Resources Conservation and Management in Myanmar. Proceedings of the APFORGEN Inception Workshop. Asia Pacific Forest Genetic Resources Programme, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Available from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.530.761&rep=rep1&type=pdf. Thaung NO, Lee DK (Seoul NU. 2007. Species Composition and Stand Structure of Natural Forest, Timber-harvested Forest and Degraded Forest in the Bago Yoma Region of Myanmar. Journal of Korean Forestry Society. Available from http://agris.fao.org/agrissearch/search.do?recordID=KR2008001890 (accessed March 14, 2017). Thinn M. 1999. Forest fire prevention and management in Myanmar. International Forest Fire News 20:21–28. Thwin S. 2003. Deforestation Analysis in Eastern and Western Myanmar. PhD Thesis. GeorgAugust-Universität Göttingen, Germany. Available from https://cuvillier.de/uploads/preview/public_file/6633/389873787X.pdf. Tin AM, Wise DL, Su W-H, Reutergardh L, Lee S-K. 1995. Cost—benefit analysis of the municipal solid waste collection system in Yangon, Myanmar. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 14:103–131. Transnational Institute. 2010. Alternative Development or Business as Usual? China’s Opium Substitution Policy in Burma and Laos. Available from https://www.tni.org/en/briefing/alternative-development-or-business-usual. Wang C, Myint SW. 2016. Environmental Concerns of Deforestation in Myanmar 2001–2010. Remote Sensing 8:728. Wang C, Wang F, Wang Q, Yang D, Li L, Zhang X. 2013. Preparing for Myanmar’s environmentfriendly reform. Environmental Science & Policy 25:229–233. Weine NNO. 2013. Review of Efforts to Combat Desertification and Arrest and Reverse Land Degradation in Myanmar. Pages 279–302 in G. A. Heshmati and V. R. Squires, editors. Combating Desertification in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Springer Netherlands. Available from http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-6652-5_14 (accessed March 14, 2017). Win HH. 2001. Environmental Awareness and Environmental Education in Myanmar. Social Education 65:98–101. Win RN, Reiji S, Shinya T. 2009. Forest Cover Changes Under Selective Logging in the Kabaung Reserved Forest, Bago Mountains, Myanma. Mountain Research and Development 29:328–338.

Win RN, Suzuki R, Takeda S. 2012. Remote sensing analysis of forest damage by selection logging in the Kabaung Reserved Forest, Bago Mountains, Myanmar. Journal of Forest Research 17:121–128. Woods K. 2010. Community Forestry in Cease-Fire Zones in Kachin State, Northern Burma: Formalizing Collective Property in Contested Ethnic Areas. Siem Reap, Cambodia. Available from http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs22/CAPRi_Conflict_Woods_CF_and_formalization.pdf. Woods K. 2015. Intersections of land grabs and climate change mitigation strategies in Myanmar as a (post-) war state of conflict. MOSAIC Research Project. Available from http://www.iss.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Research_and_projects/Research_networks/MOSA IC/MWP_3-Woods.pdf. Yan F, Jiang K, Wang K, Jin J-Q, Suwannapoom C, Li C, Vindum JV, Brown RM, Che J. 2016. The Australasian frog family Ceratobatrachidae in China, Myanmar and Thailand: discovery of a new Himalayan forest frog clade. Dong Wu Xue Yan Jiu = Zoological Research 37:7–14.

3. Potentially relevant documents that we found reference to through our literature search, but that we were either unable to obtain or deemed to be redundant with previously obtained documents (e.g. conference abstracts with same authors and similar titles to papers already obtained) (n=9). Biswas S. 2016. Contemporary Forest Cover Dynamics in Myanmar. University of Maryland. Available from http://drum.lib.umd.edu/handle/1903/18998 (accessed March 15, 2017). Hlaing ZC, Saito O. 2016. Forest resources and people’s basic needs in northwestern Myanmar : Case study in Katha District, Sagaing Region. 環境システム研究論文発表会講演集 (Environmental System Research Papers Presentation Lecture Collection) 44:81–86. Htun NZ, Mizoue N, Yoshida S. 2010. Mapping and predicting conservation priorities in Popa Mountain Park, Myanmar: a comparison of multiple models. The Japanese Forest Society Congress (日本森林学会大会講演要旨集). Mon MS, Kajisa T, Mizoue N, Yoshida S. 2009. Application of GIS and logistic regression model to predict spatial distribution of forest cover changes: A case study in Bago mountain ranges, Myanmar. The Japanese Forest Society Congress (日本森林学会大会講演要旨集). Ne Win R, Suzuki R, Takeda S. 2008. Impacts of shifting cultivation on land cover changes in a Karen Village in the Bago Mountains, Myanmar. Pages 321–321 The Japanese Forest Society Congress (日本森林学会大会講演要旨集). Available from http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/130004616162 (accessed March 14, 2017). Qu R, Wang C, Liu H, Xiao T, Gao Y. 2012. Myanmar and China in Areas Bordering Deforestation Remote Sensing Monitoring. Environment and Sustainable Development. Thaung NO. 2009. Carbon sequestration of tropical deciduous forests and forest plantations in Myanmar. PhD Thesis. Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. Thaung TL. 2008. Key trends in forest policies, legislation and institutional arrangements in Myanmar. Draft Country Report. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, RECOFCT, and Transnational Institute. Yamauchi H, Inoue M. 2012. Contribution of community forestry in the central dry zone of Myanmar to achieving sustainable and equitable forest management. Tropics 20:103–113.

Appendix S2. Tables showing the frequencies of drivers coded from case studies Table 1. The frequency with which proximate causes of deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar were identified in the literature (n=46 case studies). Each case study might state multiple causes. Proximate cause

Absolute count Percentage

Agricultural Expansion

36

78.3

Large-Scale Commercial

36

78.3

Small-Holder Commercial

29

63

Subsistence

27

58.7

Wood Extraction

39

84.8

Legally Exported

39

84.8

Illegally Exported

34

73.9

Fuelwood and Charcoal Production

26

56.5

Conversion Timber

17

37

Infrastructure Development

23

50

Hydropower Development

18

39.1

Commercial Mining

19

41.3

Non-Timber Forest Products

14

30.4

Commercial Logging

Table 2. The frequency with which underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar were identified in the literature. (n=46 case studies). Each case study might state multiple underlying drivers. Underlying driver

Absolute count Percentage

Political and Institutional Factors

30

65.2

Economic & Rural Development Policies

30

65.2

Forest/Land Management Policies

29

63

Corruption & Bribery

26

56.5

Investment Policies

19

41.3

Protected Areas & Environmental Safeguards

10

21.7

Economic Factors

28

60.9

International Demand for Natural Resources

28

60.9

Foreign & Domestic Investment

26

56.5

Improved International Trade

17

37

Microfinance

5

10.9

Social Factors

25

56.8

Civil War and Ceasefire

24

52.2

Internal Displacement & Migration

17

37

Population Growth & Demographic Factors

11

23.9

Technological Factors

9

19.6

3 Aung 2007 4 BEWG 2011 4 BEWG 2011

4 BEWG 2011 5 Donald et al 2015 6 EcoDev 2016 7 EIA 2015 8 Global Witness 2009 9 Htun 2009

Nation

1

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1

1

1

1 1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1 1

1 1

1

1

Degradation 1

1 1

Deforestation

1 1 1

1 1

1

UD - Technological

1 1 1

1 1

1 1 1

UD - Population & Demo

UD - Civil War & Ceasefire

UD - Internal Migration

UD - Improved Int Trade

UD - Microfinance

UD - Investments

1 1

1 1

UD - International Demand

1 1 1

UD - PA and EIA

1 1

UD - Investment Policies

1 1

UD - Corruption & Bribery

1 1

UD - Economic & RD Policies UD - Land Tenure & Grabs

1 1 1

1

1

PC - NTFP

1 1

PC - Mining

1 1

PC - Hydropower Dev

1 1 1

PC - Infrastructure Dev

Chin State Shan State Sagaing State CWS Protected Areas Kachin village Kachin State Hukawng Valley Shan State Inle Lake Tanintharyi Nation Kachin State China Border Kachin State

PC - Fuelwood and Charcoal PC - Legally Exported Logging PC - Illegal Exported Logging PC - Conversion Timber

1 Andersen 2015 1 Andersen 2015 2 Aung et al 2004

PC - Subsistence Agri

Study Site

PC - LS Commercial Agri

Article

PC - SH Commercial Agri

Appendix S3. Source of evidence for each link in the causal networks.

1

1

1 1

1

Study Site

PC - SH Commercial Agri PC - LS Commercial Agri PC - Subsistence Agri

PC - Hydropower Dev PC - Mining PC - NTFP

UD - Improved Int Trade UD - Internal Migration UD - Civil War & Ceasefire

10 Kramer & Woods 2012 10 Kramer & Woods 2012 11 Leimgruber et al 2005 11 Leimgruber et al 2005 11 Leimgruber et al 2005 12 Lwin et al 2011 Kachin State 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Shan State 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Ayeyarwady Delta Chin Hills 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

Tanintharyi 1 1 1 1

13 McCoy 2007

14 Myat Su Mon et al 2009 15 Myat Su Mon et al 2012 16 Songer et al 2009 17 SpringateBaginski et al 2016 Ayeyarwady Delta Bago State Nyaunglebin District Paunglaung Watershed Bago Mountain Range CWS

Monywa 1 1

1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1

1 1 1

1

1 1

1 1 1

1 1

1

1 1

1

1 1

1

1 1 1

1 1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

Degradation

Deforestation

UD - Technological

UD - Population & Demo

UD - Microfinance

UD - Investments

UD - International Demand

UD - PA and EIA

UD - Investment Policies

UD - Corruption & Bribery

UD - Economic & RD Policies UD - Land Tenure & Grabs

PC - Infrastructure Dev

PC - Fuelwood and Charcoal PC - Legally Exported Logging PC - Illegal Exported Logging PC - Conversion Timber

Article

1

1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1 1

20 Woods 2011a 21 Woods 2012 21 Woods 2012 22 Woods 2013 23 Woods 2015 23 Woods 2015 24 Zaw Htun et al 2010 25 Zaw Htun et al 2013 26 Buchanan et al 2013 27 EIA 2014 28 Sovacool 2012

Nation

1

1

1

1

Ayeyarwady Delta Nation Kachin Tanintharyi Kachin Kachin Tanintharyi Popa Mountain Park Popa Mountain Park Monywa

1

1

1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1

1

1

Nation Nation

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1

1

1 1 1

1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1 1 1

1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1

1 1 1 1 1

1

1 1 1 1 1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1 1

Degradation

1

Deforestation

1

UD - Technological

1

UD - Population & Demo

Dawei

UD - Civil War & Ceasefire

1

UD - Internal Migration

1

UD - Improved Int Trade

UD - Investments 1

UD - Microfinance

UD - International Demand 1

UD - PA and EIA

UD - Corruption & Bribery 1

UD - Investment Policies

UD - Economic & RD Policies UD - Land Tenure & Grabs 1

PC - NTFP

1

PC - Mining

1

PC - Hydropower Dev

1

PC - Infrastructure Dev

1

PC - Fuelwood and Charcoal PC - Legally Exported Logging PC - Illegal Exported Logging PC - Conversion Timber

Myitkyina

PC - Subsistence Agri

17 SpringateBaginski et al 2016 17 SpringateBaginski et al 2016 18 Srinivas and Hlaing 2015 19 Webb et al 2014

PC - LS Commercial Agri

Study Site

PC - SH Commercial Agri

Article

1 1

1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 1

Study Site

PC - LS Commercial Agri PC - Subsistence Agri

UD - Economic & RD Policies UD - Land Tenure & Grabs UD - Corruption & Bribery

Deforestation Degradation

29 Global Witness 2003 29 Global Witness 2003 29 Global Witness 2003 30 Woods 2011b 31 Global Witness 2015 32 Hudson-Rodd and Nyunt 2001 33 Brenner 2015 34 Kahrl et al 2005 Karen State 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Kachin State 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Wa State 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1

34 Kahrl et al 2005

34 Kahrl et al 2005

35 Rao et al 2002 Kachin State Shan State 1 1

Nation 1

Nation Kachin-Nujiang Border Shan-Dehong Border KachinBaojiang Border Meinmahla Kyun Wildlife Sanctuary 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1

1

1

1 1

1

1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1

1

1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1

UD - Technological

UD - Population & Demo

UD - Civil War & Ceasefire

UD - Internal Migration

UD - Improved Int Trade

UD - Microfinance

UD - Investments

UD - International Demand

UD - PA and EIA

UD - Investment Policies

PC - NTFP

PC - Mining

PC - Hydropower Dev

PC - Infrastructure Dev

PC - Fuelwood and Charcoal PC - Legally Exported Logging PC - Illegal Exported Logging PC - Conversion Timber

PC - SH Commercial Agri

Article

1 1 1

1

1 1

1 1

1

Study Site

35 Rao et al 2002

Tamanthi Wildlife Sanctuar Pidaung Wildlife Sanctuary Nation Kachin Bago

35 Rao et al 2002

36 Dapice 2003 37 McCarthy 2014 38 Khai et al 2016

38 Khai et al 2016 SUM Bago 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Degradation

Deforestation

UD - Technological

UD - Population & Demo

UD - Civil War & Ceasefire

UD - Internal Migration

UD - Improved Int Trade

UD - Microfinance

UD - Investments

UD - International Demand

UD - PA and EIA

UD - Investment Policies

UD - Corruption & Bribery

UD - Economic & RD Policies UD - Land Tenure & Grabs

PC - NTFP

PC - Mining

PC - Hydropower Dev

PC - Infrastructure Dev

PC - Fuelwood and Charcoal PC - Legally Exported Logging PC - Illegal Exported Logging PC - Conversion Timber

PC - Subsistence Agri

PC - LS Commercial Agri

PC - SH Commercial Agri

Article

1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 29 36 27 26 39 34 17 23 18 19 14 30 29 26 19 10 28 26 5 17 17 24 11 9 25 43

Appendix S4. Illustration of the causal network construction process. We a) mapped the proximate causes with their immediate underlying drivers before b) adding further underlying drivers and their inter-linkages. (a)

.

(b)