Nov 14, 2017 - 0700 Germany GDP Flash yy NSA for Q3: Exp. 2.3 pct; Prior 0.8pct ... 0700 Germany CPI Final yy for Oct: E
FX Research
Tuesday, 14 November 2017
Good morning 14th Nov 17 SFC Spot Desk Into Europe & NY European session will be busy with a set of UK Inflation data as the main highlight.NorAM session will see the publication of US PPI for the month of October. Upcoming data & events 0700 Germany GDP Flash qq SA for Q3: Exp. 0.6 pct; Prior 0.6 pct 0700 Germany GDP Flash yy NSA for Q3: Exp. 2.3 pct; Prior 0.8pct 0700 Germany CPI Final mm for Oct: Exp. 0.0 pct; Prior 0.0 pct 0700 Germany CPI Final yy for Oct: Exp. 1.6 pct; Prior 1.6 pct 0700 Germany HICP Final mm for Oct: Exp. -0.1 pct; Prior -0.1 pct 0700 Germany HICP Final yy for Oct: Exp. 1.5 pct; Prior 1.5 pct 0815 Switzerland Producer/Import Price mm for Oct: Prior 0.5 pct 0815 Switzerland Producer/Import Price yy for Oct: Prior 0.8 pct 0830 Sweden CPI mm for Oct: Exp. 0.1 pct; Prior 0.1 pct 0830 Sweden CPI yy for Oct: Exp. 1.8 pct; Prior 2.1 pct 0830 Sweden CPIF mm for Oct: Exp. 0.1 pct; Prior 0.2 pct 0830 Sweden CPIF yy for Oct: Exp. 2.0 pct; Prior 2.3 pct 0900 Italy GDP Prelim qq for Q3: Exp. 0.4 pct; Prior 0.3 pct 0900 Italy GDP Prelim yy for Q3: Exp. 1.7 pct; Prior 1.5 pct 0930 UK Core CPI mm for Oct: Exp. 0.3 pct; Prior 0.2 pct 0930 UK Core CPI yy for Oct: Exp. 2.8 pct; Prior 2.7 pct 0930 UK CPI mm for Oct: Exp. 0.2 pct; Prior 0.3 pct 0930 UK CPI yy for Oct: Exp. 3.1 pct; Prior 3.0 pct 0930 UK RPI mm for Oct: Exp. 0.2 pct; Prior 0.1 pct 0930 UK RPI yy for Oct: Exp. 4.1 pct; Prior 3.9 pct 0930 UK RPI-X (Retail Prices) mm for Oct: Prior 0.1 pct 0930 UK RPIX YY for Oct: Prior 4.1 pct 0930 UK RPI Index for Oct: Prior 275.1 0930 UK PPI Input Prices mm NSA for Oct: Exp. 1.1 pct; Prior 0.4 pct 0930 UK PPI Input Prices yy NSA for Oct: Exp. 4.8 pct; Prior 8.4 pct 0930 UK PPI Output Prices mm NSA for Oct: Exp. 0.3 pct; Prior 0.2 pct 0930 UK PPI Output Prices yy NSA for Oct: Exp. 2.9 pct; Prior 3.3 pct 0930 UK PPI Core Output mm NSA for Oct: Exp. 0.2 pct; Prior 0.0 pct 0930 UK PPI Core Output yy NSA for Oct: Exp. 2.2 pct; Prior 2.5 pct
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FX Technical Update EURUSD(1.1670)-Approaching intraday stretch @ 1.1680.Feels bid... -Flows: bids:1.1640/30.More ahead of 1.1600/1590 & 1.1560/50.Stops below.Offers 1.1680/1700.More ahead of 1.1720/30.Stops above. -S/T tech: No change in the last 24hrs.Retracement of 1.1680-1.1555 decline underway and approaching key intraday stretch @ 1.1680.While above 1.1600/1580 recovery may extend up to 1.1660/80 where supply should reemerge(condition met).The overall outlook remains negative below 1.1680 with signs of base build in mid 1.15's.Watching price action around present levels for clues.No position at present. -M/T tech: Turns negative on a daily close below 1.1720/00.Projected targets for present leg lower have been met and exceeded.Allow for a period of choppy two-way action before another attempt lower.Rallies seen as an opportunity to reload shorts. -Levels to watch:1.1630/1600 on the downside;1.1680/1700 on the upside. -Projected range:1.1630-1.1715 USDJPY(113.65)-In the middle of nowhere...... -Flows: bids 113.20/00.More ahead of 112.60/50.Stops below.Offers 113.80/114.00.More ahead of 114.30/50 Stops above.
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-S/T tech: No change in the last 24hrs.Negative below 113.80/114.30 with scope for the limited losses ahead.Initial targets for shorts off 113.80/114.00 have been met.Reconsider booking profits on downticks or stay short with stops trailed down to 114.00, targeting the retest of 113.20/00.No position at present. -M/T tech: Positive above 112.20/00 with scope for the retest of 114.00/50(met)and beyond.Pullbacks likely to present an opportunity to reload longs. -Levels to watch:113.20/00 on the downside;113.80/114.30 on the upside. -Projected range:113.20-113.90 EURJPY(132.60)-Climbs higher..... -Flows: bids 132.20/00.More ahead 131.80/60-50.Stops below.Offers 132.80/133.00.More ahead 133.20/30.Stops above. -S/T tech: Sideways with mild bullish bias.Look for more two way activity in 132.00-133.00/20 range for now.Involve only on the extremes.No position at present. -Levels to watch:131.60/50 on the downside;133.00/20 on the upside -Projected range:131.50-132.50 GBPUSD(1.3105)-Hovering above the trendline support.UK inflation report in focus... -Flows: bids 1.3100/3080.More ahead of 1.3060/50.Stops below.Offers 1.3170/80.More ahead of 1.3200.Stops above. -S/T tech: No change in the last 24hrs.Negative below 1.3120/3180 with signs of base build in mid 1.30's.Market is struggling to find the direction.Look for more choppy two-way action in broad range before another attempt lower.Standing aside.Watching price action for clues. -M/T tech: Turns negative on a daily close below 1.31/3080.Rallies likely to present an opportunity to reload shorts.A new strategy to follow. -Levels to watch:1.3050/20 on the downside,1.3120/3180 on the upside. -Projected range:1.3080-1.3170 EURGBP(0.8905)-Ticks higher ahead of UK inflation data... -Flows: bids 0.8860/50.More ahead of 0.8820/00.Stops below.Offers 0.8880/8900.More ahead of 0.8920/30.Stops above. -S/T tech: Turns mildly positive on a 4hr close above 0.8880.While above 0.8860/20 recovery may extend up to 0.8930 initially and 0.8980 should the rally continue.Downticks likely to present an opportunity to reload longs. -M/T tech: Negative below 0.9020/30 with signs of base build in mid 0.87's.Look for more two choppy action in a broad range for now.A new strategy to follow. -Levels to watch:0.8860/20 on the downside;0.8930/80 on the upside. -Projected range:0.8880-8945 AUDUSD(0.7630)-Leaks lower ....... -Flows: bids 0.7600/7580.More ahead of 0.7560/50.Stops below.Offers 0.7650/70.More ahead of 0.7730/50.Stops above. -S/T tech: No change in the last 24hrs.Negative below 0.7660/7730 with scope for the retest of congested support @ 0.7630/20 initially(met) and 0.7570/50 should the meltdown continue.Projected targets for shorts off 0.7700 have been met.Reconsider booking profits on downticks to 0.7620/00 or stay short with stops trailed down to 0.7670, targeting 0.7570/50 and beyond.No position at present. -M/T tech: Negative below 0.7900/7920 with scope for the retest of 0.7630/7570 and beyond(partially met).A daily close below 200D SMA opens door to further losses.Rallies likely to present an opportunity to reload shorts.A new strategy to follow. -Levels to watch:0.7600/7570 on the downside;0.7660/7700 on the upside. -Projected range:0.7650-0.7720 NZDUSD(0.6850)-Looses its shine.... -Flows: bids 0.6870/50.More ahead of 0.6820/00.Stops below.Offers 0.6920/30.More ahead of 0.6950/70.Stops above. -S/T tech: Turns negative on a 4hr close below 0.6870.While below 0.6920/6960 decline may extend down to 0.6850/40 initially(met)and 0.6820/00 should the meltdown continue.Rallies likely to present an opportunity to reload shorts.Longs off 0.7005/6890 stopped @ 0.6865 for a loss of 35p.No position at present. -M/T tech: Negative below 0.7200/20 with early signs of an interim low ahead of 0.6800.Retracement of 0.7200-0.6815 decline underway.Rallies still seen as an opportunity to reload shorts.A new strategy to follow. -Levels to watch:0.6850/20 on the downside;0.6920/60 on the upside. -Projected range:0.6840-0.6900 USDCHF(0.9955)-Ticks higher despite USD weakness.... -Flows: bids 0.9920/00.More ahead of 0.9880/60-50.Stops below.Offers 0.9950/60.More ahead of 0.9980/1.000 & 1.0020/30.Stops above.
-S/T tech: Negative below 0.9980/1.0020 with scope for the retest of 0.9920/00 initially and 0.9860/50 should the meltdown continue.Rallies seen as an opportunity to reload shorts.No position at present. -M/T tech: Positive above 0.9750/20 with early signs of bull run fatigue above 1.0 mark.Reconsider booking profits on upticks or stay long with stops trailed up to 0.9700, targeting the retest of 1.0070/1.01 -Levels to watch:0.9920/00 on the downside;0.9980/1.0000 on the upside. -Projected range:0.9900-1.0000 EURCHF(1.1640)-Climbs higher... -Flows: bids 1.1600/1580.More ahead of 1.1550/40.Stops below.Offers 1.1640/50.More ahead of 1.1680/1700.Stops above. -S/T tech: No change in the last 24hrs.Positive above 1.1580/50 with scope for the retest of 1680/1700.Longs off 1.1560 closed @ 1.1605/10 & 1.1650/55).No position at present.Watching price action for clues. -M/T tech: Positive above 1.1460/50 with signs of an interim top above 1.17 mark.Pullbacks likely to present an opportunity to reload longs.A new strategy to follow. -Levels to watch:1.1580/50 on the downside;1.1680/1700 on the upside. -Projected range:1.1600-1.1660 USDCAD(1.2740)-Support @ 1.2660/50 provides the base for a solid rebound... -Flows: bids 1.2700/2680.More ahead of 1.2660/50.Stops below.Offers 1.2720/30.More ahead of 1.2770/80.Stops above. -S/T tech: Mixed.Retracement of 1.2910-1.2660 decline underway.While above 1.2700/2680 recovery may extend up to 1.2780/2800 where supply should reemerge.The overall outlook remains negative below 1.2780/2800 with signs of base build in mid 1.26's.Rallies still seen as an opportunity to reload shorts.No position at present. -M/T tech: Positive above 1.2550/00 with signs of top build ahead of 200D SMA @ 1.2930/50.Ultimate targets for the recovery off 1.20 handle have been met and exceeded.Reconsider booking profits on upticks.200D SMA @ 1.2930/50 expected to cap the upside for some time. -Levels to watch:1.2680/60 on the downside;1.2780/2800 on the upside. -Projected range:1.2680-1.2780 If we see anything interesting and worthwhile, we will keep you posted. Have a great day in the meantime and best of luck. For detailed strategies visit www.sfcmarkets.com SFC Spot Desk
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