Systems, Scanning, and Scenarios

Systems,   Scanning,   and   Scenarios   A  presentation  for  OR54   Tuesday,  4  September  2012   Dr  Wendy  L  Schultz   Infinite  Futures  

Three  Stories:   history,  emergence,  narrative  

History:   two  sister  disciplines,  alike  in  dignity  

Shared  History  |  Shared  Progenitors  

*  Early  20th  C:    Systems  sciences  emerged  as  ‘organismic’  biologists   grow  frustrated  with  Newtonian  (mechanistic)  models   *  Early  20th  C:  Long-­‐range  thinking  about  the  future  emerged  with   large-­‐scale  planning  efforts  in  USA  and  USSR  (albeit  for  different   reasons)   *  WWII:  Operations  research  in  widespread  use  for  quarter-­‐mastering   USA’s  war  effort,  eg  RAND   *  Post-­‐WWII:  Global  futures  community  begins  exploring  images  and   models  of  long-­‐range  futures  for  humanity  and  the  planet,  eg   Kenneth  Boulding  and  Jay  Forrester  ‘bridge’  systems/OR  and  futures  

Shared  Concerns   *  To  gain  new  understanding  about  interconnections  and   leverage  points  in  complicated  and  complex  systems  (eg,  us)   *  To  gain  new  concepts  and  tools  for  identifying  and  exploring   how  systems  emerge,  evolve,  and  change   *  To  explore  alternative  possible  system  outcomes  as   preparation  for  creating  optimised  outcomes:  preferred  futures  

Shared  Problems   *  Hard  (eg  quantitative  forecasting)  vs  soft  (eg  qualitative   scenarios);  focussed  (eg  single  topic)  vs  diffuse  (eg  ‘future  of   everything’)   *  Branding  –  and  contrary  to  common  UK  use,  we  chose  NOT  to   have  an  ‘ology’,  about  forty  years  ago  (sorry,  Ossip)   *  …but  if  we  build  more  bridges  between  academics  and   practitioners,  and  theories  and  methods,  across  both  fields,   useful  synergies  can  result  

Emergence:   on  far  horizons,  new-­‐born  change  

LIFE CYCLE OF EMERGING CHANGE

Life  Cycle  of  Change  

Development  of  an  issue  

system  limits;  problems  develop;   unintended  impacts   global;  multiple  dispersed   cases;  trends  and  drivers    

institutions  and   government  

newspapers;  news  magazines;     broadcast  media   laypersons’  magazines;   websites;  documentaries   local;  few  cases;   emerging  issues  

specialists’  journals  and  websites  

scientists;  artists;  radicals;  mystics  

Time  

Schultz,  adapted  from  Molitor  

Scanning  Data:  the  fringe  festival   * Sources of authoritative opinion *  science and technology: where those communities themselves announce news. *  social and cultural change: where transgressive ideas emerge among artists, youth, marginalised communities – the fringe.

* Sources of surprise *  challenges to scientific paradigms; *  challenges to the status quo.

Four  Scanning  Modes   (Chun  Wei  Choo,  ASIS  Bulletin)  

*  Touring *  minimal targeting, many sources; sensing.

*  Tracking *  minor targeting, few sources; sense-making.

*  Satisficing *  moderate targeting, few sources; learning.

*  Retrieving *  high targeting, many sources; retrieving.

WHAT NOT TO DO WITH SCANNING DATA

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD: identify overlapping waves of change

THREE  HORIZONS  FRAMEWORK   B  Sharp,  T  Hodgson,  A  Curry  

WHAT TO DO INSTEAD: map cascades of change Adapted  from  J  Glenn;  R  Lum  

Futures  /  Impact  Wheels   • 

Jerome C. Glenn •  •  • 

• 

Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a method for policy analysis and forecasting Also called Implementation Wheels, Impact Wheels, Mind Mapping, and Webbing. Reference: Jerome C. Glenn, “The Futures Wheel,” in The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology 3.0 (CD)

Joel Barker • 

• 

“Cascade thinking:” go out at least three orders of implications to find big surprises http://strategicexploration.com/implications-wheel/

Narrative:   futurists  tell  stories*  –  complex  stories  

*Thank  you,  Don  Michael.  

Generating  Surprise  from  Complexity  

*  Subsidiary impacts create surprise: *  explore beyond the obvious *  consider feedback.

*  Complex systems create surprise: *  systems archetypes *  obvious can produce counter-intuitive results *  effective is rarely easy.

FUTURES WHEEL IMPACTS OVER TIME Adapted  from  J  Glenn;  R  Lum;  C  Crews  

SYSTEM IMPACTS ACROSS THE THREE HORIZONS

FEEDBACK CLUSTERS CREATE SCENARIO ’BACKDROPS’

SEPARATE SCENARIO SYSTEMS EVOLVE, eg,

ADDING CHARACTERS to BACKDROP – Jungian Archetypes

Graphic  via  L  Shupp,  Cheskin  

CREATING the NARRATIVE ARC – the Hero’s Journey

ACT  THREE   Return  

12  

Return  with   Prize  

1  

Call  to   Adventure  

ACT  ONE  

Refusal  of  Call  

Separation  

2  

Resurrection  

Meeting  Mentor  

11   10  

3  

Ordinary  World  

Return  to  the   World  

4  

Special  World  

Crossing  Over   First  Threshold  

Trials  

Refusal  of  return  

9  

5   Approach  

Reward  

8   7  

Giving  Up   Preconceptions  

ACT  TWO:  Ordeal  

6   Graphic  via  L  Shupp,  Cheskin  

FUTURES  of  FS  and  OR:   hand  in  hand   Crowdsourcing  scanning  and  scenarios   Design  futures  and  futures  prototyping   Testing  impacts  and  outcomes  using  CAS  

Thank  you!    wendy@infinitefutures.com