The Aon Benfield Aggregate - Reinsurance Thought Leadership

Aon Benfield Analytics | Market Analysis

The Aon Benfield Aggregate Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015

Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

Table of Contents Global Reinsurer Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ABA Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Capital Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Capital Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Premium Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Underwriting Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Investment Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Net Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Return on Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 ABA Valuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Financial Strength Ratings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Appendix 1: ABA Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Global Reinsurer Capital Aon Benfield estimates that global reinsurer capital totaled USD565 billion at June 30, 2015, a reduction of 2% since the end of 2014. This calculation is a broad measure of capital available for insurers to trade risk with and includes both traditional and alternative forms of reinsurer capital. Exhibit 1: Global Reinsurer Capital 700 600 USD (billions)

500 400

385

Traditional Capital Alternative Capital Global Reinsurer Capital 410 400 340 6%

-17%

300 200

368

388

17

22

470

455

-2%

18% 18%

321

6%

565

7%

11%

-3%

575

540

505

378

447

428

24

28

461

490

511

497

64

68

100 0

19

22

44

50

FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 1H 2015 Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Analytics

Traditional capital fell by 3% to USD497 billion in the first half of 2015, driven by strengthening of the US Dollar and the impact of rising interest rates on bond valuations. The operating performance of major insurers and reinsurers remained solid, aided by below average insured catastrophe losses, economic recovery in the United States and exposure growth in emerging markets. Alternative capital has continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace than before, the total rising by 6% to USD68 billion at June 30, 2015. This is reflected in near record levels of catastrophe bond issuance, further expansion of fully collateralized placements and growing utilization of ‘sidecar’ vehicles.

Evolution of the ABA Aon Benfield Aggregate (ABA) reports are produced on a half-yearly basis, with the aim of highlighting current trends in the Property and Casualty (P&C) reinsurance marketplace. Recent merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has resulted in a degree of consolidation among ABA constituents. Platinum, Catlin and Montpelier were absorbed into RenaissanceRe, XL and Endurance effective March 2, 2015, May 1, 2015 and July 31, 2015, respectively. The results of these three companies remain in the ABA up until the end of 2014, but are only included in this report from the date of acquisition. The lack of data in this transitional phase means that some business has not been captured (around USD3 billion of premium). The ABA now comprises 26 publicly-listed holding companies (‘the listed ABA’) and two US-domiciled subsidiaries of Berkshire Hathaway, namely National Indemnity Company (NICO) and General Reinsurance Corporation (Gen Re). As standalone operating companies, the results of NICO and Gen Re tend to be impacted by intra-group transactions. To provide a more meaningful picture of the sector’s underlying performance, many of the charts and ratios used in this report focus on the listed ABA.


3

Executive Summary Recent strengthening of the US Dollar has had a significant impact on the data underlying this report.

Underwriting performance remains strong, given low global catastrophe losses.

Four large ABA constituents report in Euros (Hannover Re, Mapfre, Munich Re and SCOR). Income statements are translated to US Dollars at average exchange rates, while balance sheets are translated at period-end exchange rates.

The combined ratio of the listed ABA rose by 0.8 percentage points to 91.1% in the first half of 2015. P&C underwriting profit fell by 13% to USD6.8 billion, half of which related to favourable prior year reserve development.

Based on average daily rates, the US Dollar strengthened by 19% against the Euro in the first half of 2015, relative to the prior year comparative period. The increase over the six months to June 30 was 8%.

The benefit of lower catastrophe losses was out-weighed by the impact of weakening pricing and changes in business mix on the attritional loss and expense ratios.

Traditional reinsurance capital has declined in US Dollar terms, while alternative capital continues to grow. Aon Benfield estimates that global reinsurer capital fell by 2% to USD565 billion in the first half of 2015, despite a 6% increase in alternative capital to USD68 billion. The shareholders' funds of the 28 ABA constituents fell by 4% to USD332 billion at June 30, 2015, but the total was up slightly at constant exchange rates, driven by solid earnings. Special dividends were paid by Amlin, Beazley, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire and Swiss Re, suggesting management teams remain comfortable with their capital positions. Premium growth is being achieved, despite difficult market conditions. In original reporting currencies, two-thirds of the ABA constituents achieved growth in property and casualty (P&C) premiums in the first half of 2015. Acquisition effects were significant and much of this growth occurred in primary insurance. Few companies reported organic expansion of their reinsurance business. Alternative capital has driven catastrophe risk transfer costs down. Reinsurers continue to incorporate material alternative capital (through ILS, sidecars and asset management mandates) to lower their cost of underwriting capital. The availability of more favourable terms resulted in most ABA constituents reporting increased reinsurance cession ratios in the first half of 2015.

4

The Aon Benfield Aggregate – Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015

Investment yields continue to decline, with little prospect of relief in the near term. Across the listed ABA, the ordinary investment yield has declined steadily from 4.4% in 2007 to 2.8% in the first half of 2015, despite higher levels of asset risk being assumed. Headline return on equity has eroded modestly but remains resilient. Across the listed ABA, net income attributable to common shareholders fell by 12% to USD12.3 billion in the first half of 2015. This represented a return on equity of 10.7%. Sector consolidation is underway as companies look to achieve the advantages of scale and diversification. Platinum, Catlin and Montpelier no longer appear in the ABA, having been absorbed into RenaissanceRe, XL and Endurance effective March 2, 2015, May 1, 2015 and July 31, 2015 respectively. Major transactions involving ACE, PartnerRe and White Mountains are expected to impact the ABA going forward and further corporate activity is considered likely.

ABA Capital The reported shareholders’ funds of the ABA companies stood at USD332 billion at June 30, 2015. The total for the listed ABA was USD231 billion. At constant exchange rates, these figures were broadly unchanged relative to the end of 2014. Exhibit 2: ABA Shareholders’ Funds (SHF)

USD (billions)

400

NICO & Gen Re

Listed ABA

226

196

100

44

233

15%

152

45

188 -17% 37

180

24%

151

16% 78

48

184

5%

79

6% 12%

203

192

345

337

317

282

269

300 200

Total ABA

2%

90

109

106

227

229

240

332 -4%

101

231

0 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 1H 2015 Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis

Capital Development The US Dollar strengthened by 8% against the Euro over the six months to June 30, 2015. The simple mechanics of translating the shareholders’ funds of Hannover Re, Mapfre, Munich Re and SCOR to US Dollars at the revised rate resulted in a ‘reduction’ in ABA capital of USD10.1 billion. Applying constant exchange rates, listed ABA capital rose by 1% to USD242 billion. Net income stood at USD12.4 billion and new equity of USD3.5 billion was issued in support of M&A activity. These positive factors offset unrealized investment losses of USD4.7 billion, dividends of USD7.3 billion and share buybacks of USD2.5 billion.

Exhibit 3: Evolution of Listed ABA Shareholders’ Funds 260

12.4

USD (billions)

250 240

239.8

3.5

-10.9 -4.7 -2.5

-7.3

230

0.2

230.5

Other

1H 2015 SHF

220 210 200 FY 2014 Additional Net Foreign Investment Share Dividends SHF capital income exchange losses buybacks

Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis


5

Between them, NICO and Gen Re reported USD101 billion of shareholders’ funds at June 30, 2015, representing 31% of the ABA total. On a combined basis, Munich Re, Swiss Re and ACE contributed USD97 billion or 29%. More than half of the ABA constituents reported shareholders’ funds in excess of USD5 billion, while three remained below USD2 billion.

Exhibit 4: Shareholders’ Funds at June 30, 2015

USD (billions)

100 90 80 40 70 60 30 50 40 20 30 20 10 10 00


RenaissanceRe, XL and Fairfax reported capital growth of 25%, 22% and 5%, respectively, in the first half of 2015, driven by new equity issued in support of M&A activity (USD0.8 billion, USD1.9 billion and USD0.8 billion, respectively). Eleven ABA constituents reported reductions in capital, driven by a combination of adverse foreign exchange movements, unrealized investment losses and continued active capital management. The most significant declines were at Swiss Re (7%), Amlin (6%) and NICO (5%).

Exhibit 5: Growth in Shareholders’ Funds (Original Reporting Currencies) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%


6


Capital Management Capital returned to investors by the listed ABA totalled USD9.8 billion in the first half of 2015, split USD7.3 billion to dividend payments and USD2.5 billion to share buybacks. These figures were down on the prior year, as companies involved in M&A activity placed their capital management plans on hold. Special dividends were paid by Amlin, Beazley, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire and Swiss Re.

Exhibit 6: Dividends & Share Buybacks as a Percentage of Opening Capital 14% 12%

Dividends Share buybacks

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%



7

Premium Income Total premiums written by the ABA stood at USD150 billion in the first half of 2015, of which USD112 billion related to property & casualty (P&C) business. The reductions relative to the prior year are heavily influenced by movements in exchange rates. Exhibit 7: ABA Total Premiums Written 200 175

USD (billions)

150 125

Other GPW P&C GPW Total GPW 137

171 144

43

150 38

43

41

40

151

100 75 50

97

103

109

1H 2011

1H 2012

1H 2013

128

112

25 0

1H 2014

1H 2015


Gross P&C premiums written by the listed ABA totaled USD103 billion in the first half of 2015, of which USD55 billion was direct insurance and USD48 billion was assumed reinsurance. Comparisons with the prior year are impacted by the depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar and the absence of approximately USD3 billion of premium relating to Catlin, Montpelier and Platinum.

Exhibit 8: ABA P&C Gross Premiums Written 160 140

NICO & Gen Re

Insurance

USD (billions)

120 100 80

103

97

5

4

Reinsurance 109

Total 128 19

112 10

4 49

56

56

53

48

1H 2013

1H 2014

1H 2015

55

60 40

99

93

20 0

1H 2011

1H 2012


In original reporting currencies, two-thirds of the ABA constituents achieved growth in P&C premiums in the first half of 2015. The significant swing in exchange rates was positive for the US Dollar denominated business of companies reporting in other currencies and negative for the international business of those reporting in US Dollars.

8


On a constant currency basis, Hannover Re, SCOR and Mapfre reported growth of 10%, 6% and 8%, respectively, while Munich Re posted a decline of 8%. Acquisitions bolstered the figures at XL (Catlin from May 1, 2015), Validus (Western World from October 2, 2014), RenaissanceRe (Platinum from March 2, 2015) and Fairfax (Brit from June 5, 2015). Gross premiums written at NICO fell by 51% to USD9.0 billion, around half of which related to a 50% intra-group quota share with GEICO. The prior year was impacted by large loss portfolio transactions with GEICO and Liberty Mutual. Lancashire reported a 33% decline, or 11% excluding the effect of multi-year contracts written in the prior period.

Exhibit 9: Growth in P&C Gross Premiums Written (Original Reporting Currencies) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%


*P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed)

Exhibit 10 shows the split of P&C premiums between primary insurance and assumed reinsurance across all of the ABA constituents in the first half of 2015, based on our best interpretation of sometimes inconsistent/incomplete company disclosure.

Exhibit 10: 1H 2015 P&C Segmental Splits 12 10

P&C Insurance P&C Reinsurance

USD (billions)

8 6 4 2 0


* P&C insurance relates to Risk Solutions (ERGO excluded)


9

Exhibit 11 captures the growth/contraction in the primary insurance and assumed reinsurance segments of the ABA constituents in the first half of 2015, based on our best interpretation of sometimes inconsistent/incomplete company disclosure. Two-thirds reported growth of their primary insurance operations. Of the few reporting organic reinsurance business expansion, the most notable were Hannover Re, SCOR, Mapfre and Amlin.

Exhibit 11: 1H 2015 P&C Segmental Growth (Original Reporting Currencies) 25%

Reinsurance GPW Insurance GPW

15% 5% -5% -15% -25% -35% -45% -55%


* P&C insurance relates to Risk Solutions (ERGO excluded)

Total P&C premiums ceded to third parties by the listed ABA stood at USD18.1 billion in the first half of 2015. This represented a cession ratio of 17.6%, up from 15.8% in the prior year period. Net premiums written totalled USD84.6 billion. Reinsurance utilisation rose most significantly at Endurance, Lancashire and QBE. The biggest reductions were at RenaissanceRe and Hiscox.

Exhibit 12: Reinsurance Cession Ratios 40% 35%

1H 2015

1H 2014

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%


10



Total P&C net premiums earned by the ABA stood at USD84.8 billion in the first half of 2015. The contribution from the listed ABA was USD76.4 billion.

Exhibit 13: 1H 2015 P&C Net Premiums Earned 10 9 8

USD (billions)

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0



Almost two-thirds of the listed ABA companies reported growth in P&C net premiums earned in the first half of 2015. Significant expansion at RenaissanceRe, Validus and XL was fuelled by acquisitions, while the outcomes at SCOR and Hannover Re were influenced by foreign exchange movements. Additional reinsurance purchases were a feature at most of the companies reporting lower net premiums earned. At constant exchange rates, the reduction at QBE was 2%.

Exhibit 14: Growth in P&C Net Premiums Earned (Original Reporting Currencies) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%




11

Earnings Overall profitability remains relatively stable, but earnings are becoming increasingly reliant on benign catastrophe experience and material reserve releases. Growing price competition and low interest rates continue to pressure underlying returns on equity. Exhibit 15: Listed ABA Pre-Tax Profit 40

USD (billions)

30

Other Investment income

Pure life technical result Capital gains/losses

P&C underwriting result Pre-tax profit

20 10

15.4

15.0

1H 2012

1H 2013

17.7

15.1

0 -10 -20

0.5

1H 2011

1H 2014

1H 2015


The listed ABA reported pre-tax profit of USD15.1 billion in the first half of 2015. The reduction of USD2.6 billion relative to the prior year was mainly influenced by strengthening of the US Dollar. P&C underwriting profit fell by 13% to USD6.8 billion, including USD3.4 billion of favourable prior year reserve development (49% of the total). Ordinary investment income fell by 10% to USD12.1 billion, while capital gains fell by 47% to USD2.9 billion. Exhibit 16 shows the distribution of reported pre-tax profits. On a combined basis, NICO, Swiss Re, Munich Re and ACE contributed USD12.4 billion, or 61% of the total. Fairfax was the only company to report a loss, driven by USD0.5 billion of unrealized losses on fixed-income securities.

Exhibit 16: 1H 2015 Pre-Tax Results 6

USD (billions)

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1


12


Underwriting Performance The combined ratio of the listed ABA deteriorated by 0.8 percentage points to 91.1% in the first half of 2015, despite a further reduction in reported catastrophe losses and increased support from the favourable development of prior year reserves. These positive factors were out-weighed by the effects of weakening pricing and business mix changes on attritional loss and expense ratios. On an accident year basis (excluding prior year reserve adjustments), the combined ratio of the listed ABA deteriorated by 1.7 percentage points to 95.5%.

Exhibit 17: Listed ABA Combined Ratio Composition Prior year reserve adjustment

Expense ratio

Attritional loss ratio

Total catastrophe losses

114.1% 91.1%

89.9%

90.3%

91.1%

3.7%

5.4%

3.7%

2.7%

59.1%

59.6%

57.6%

58.8%

60.4%

30.2%

30.7%

30.7%

31.4%

32.4%

-4.2%

-2.9%

-3.8%

-3.5%

-4.4%

1H 2011

1H 2012

1H 2013

1H 2014

1H 2015

29.1%


Exhibit 18 shows the distribution of reported combined ratios across the listed ABA constituents in the first half of 2015. All were profitable on a calendar year basis, although half reported weaker results relative to the prior year. The median outcome was 89.4%, up from 88.5% in the first half of 2014.

Exhibit 18: 1H 2015 Combined Ratios 120%

Loss ratio

Expense ratio

Listed ABA combined ratio

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%


*P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) **Excluding funds withheld


13

Exhibit 19 shows the P&C underwriting results reported by the listed ABA constituents. On a combined basis, Swiss Re, ACE and Munich Re contributed USD2.5 billion, or 37% of the total.

Exhibit 19: 1H 2015 P&C Underwriting Results 1.0 0.9 0.8

USD (billions)

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



Exhibit 20 shows prior year reserve development as a percentage of P&C net premiums earned by the listed ABA constituents. Just over half of the companies reported higher releases in the first half of 2015, relative to the prior year comparative period. None reported net additions to reserves.

Exhibit 20: Prior Year Loss Reserve Adjustments 25%

1H 2015

1H 2014

20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%


14


*P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) ** No disclosure

Exhibit 21 shows the reported accident year combined ratios (excluding prior year reserve movements) of the listed ABA constituents. Four companies reported underwriting losses on this basis.

Exhibit 21: 1H 2015 Accident Year Combined Ratios 120%

Listed ABA

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%



Investment Results The listed ABA reported cash and investments of USD860 billion at June 30, 2015, split fixed-income securities 66%, cash/short-term 8%, loans 7%, deposits with cedants 6%, equities 5% and other 7%. The underlying and total investment yields reported through income statements since 2006 are captured in Exhibit 22. The former has fallen by more than a third since 2007, reflecting the impact of the low interest rate environment.

Exhibit 22: Listed ABA Investment Yield (Annualized) 6% 5%

4.9%

4.8% 4.0%

4% 4.0% 3%

4.4%

Total investment yield (incl. capital gains/losses)* Ordinary investment yield* 3.8%

3.9% 3.4%

4.4% 3.9%

3.8%

3.5%

3.4%

3.5% 3.1%

2%

3.7%

2.9%

2.9%

2.8%

1.9% 1% FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 1H 2015 Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis

*Reported through income statements, excluding unit-linked and with-profit business


15

Exhibit 23 shows the underlying and total investment yields reported by the ABA constituents through their income statements in the first half of 2015. Investment classification varies and direct comparison of results can therefore be misleading. Fairfax and PartnerRe are notable for recognizing all unrealized gains and losses through their income statements.

Exhibit 23: 1H 2015 Investment Yields (Annualized) 6% Ordinary investment yield*

5%

Total investment yield*

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1%


*Reported through income statements, excluding unit-linked and with-profit business

Net Income The ABA reported net income attributable to common shareholders of USD17.3 billion in the first half of 2015, a reduction of 6% relative to the prior year. Net income across the listed ABA fell by 12% to USD12.3 billion.

Exhibit 24: ABA Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders 20

NICO & Gen Re

Listed ABA

USD (billions)

15.1 15

18.4 16.0 4.4

2.9

3.6

12.2

12.4

1H 2012

1H 2013

17.3 4.9

10

5

0

14.0

12.3

2.5 2.2 0.3 1H 2011

1H 2014

1H 2015


Exhibit 25 shows the distribution of net income by ABA constituent. The combined results of NICO, Munich Re, Swiss Re and ACE totalled USD10.7 billion, representing 62% of the total.

16


Exhibit 25: 1H 2015 Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders 5

USD USD (billions) (billions)

4 3 2 2 1 1 0

0


Return on Equity Exhibit 26 shows the development of net income attributable to common shareholders relative to average common shareholders’ funds across the listed ABA since 2006. Return on equity over this period (encompassing both the financial crisis and the record year for insured catastrophe losses) averaged 11.9%.

Exhibit 26: Listed ABA Common Net Income ROE (Annualized) 25% 20%

21.6% 16.8%

14.5%

15% 10%

11.4%

11.3% 3.7%

11.1%

11.1%

10.7%

4.6%

5% 0% FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 1H 2015 Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis

Exhibit 27 shows return on equity by listed ABA constituent, based on reported net income in the first half of 2015. Only nine companies reported improved performance on this measure, relative to the prior year period (see data in Appendix 1).

Exhibit 27: 1H 2015 Common Net Income ROE (Annualized) 20%

Listed ABA

15% 10% 5% 0%



17

ABA Valuation As at September 1, 2015, the overall market capitalization of the ABA companies had fallen by 1% since the beginning of the year. The trailing price-to-book ratio was unchanged at 1.06x. Exhibit 28: ABA Market Capitalization

Exhibit 30: ABA Trailing Price-to-Book Ratio

140

1.3

120

1.2 1.1

100

1.0

80

0.9

60

0.8

40 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg

Note: As of September 1, 2015, excluding Berkshire Hathaway

Source: Bloomberg

Note: As of September 1, 2015, excluding Berkshire Hathaway

Exhibit 29 shows the share price development of individual ABA companies since the beginning of 2015.

Exhibit 31 shows the evolution of the trailing price-to-book values of individual ABA companies since the beginning of 2015.

Exhibit 29: Share Price Development Since Jan 1, 2015

Exhibit 31: Trailing Price-to-Book Ratios Beazley Hiscox Amlin Lancashire Markel Arch Hannover Re Fairfax QBE ACE White Mountains PartnerRe RenaissanceRe Validus Everest Re Endurance Allied World Aspen Alleghany SCOR Swiss Re Axis Argo Mapfre XL Munich Re

Lancashire SCOR PartnerRe Markel Beazley Hannover Re Hiscox QBE Arch White Mountains Amlin Argo Axis XL Validus Swiss Re RenaissanceRe Endurance Allied World Aspen Everest Re Fairfax Alleghany Munich Re Mapfre ACE -15% Source: Bloomberg

18

0.7 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

-5%

5%

15%


January 1, 2015 0.0

25%

Note: As of September 1, 2015

September 1, 2015

Source: Bloomberg

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Financial Strength Ratings Exhibit 32: Financial Strength Ratings Main Operating Company

A.M. Best

Standard & Poor’s

ACE Tempest Reinsurance Ltd

A++

Review Negative

AA

Negative

Allied World Assurance Co Ltd

A

Stable

A

Stable

Amlin AG

A

Stable

A

Stable

Arch Reinsurance Ltd

A+

Stable

A+

Stable

Argo Re Ltd

A

Stable

-

-

Aspen Bermuda Ltd

A

Stable

A

Stable

Axis Specialty Ltd

A+

Stable

A+

Stable

Beazley Insurance Company, Inc

A

Stable

-

-

Catlin Insurance Company Ltd

A

Stable

A

Stable

Endurance Specialty Insurance Ltd

A

Stable

A

Stable

Everest Reinsurance (Bermuda) Ltd

A+

Stable

A+

Stable

General Reinsurance Corporation

A++

Stable

AA+

Watch Negative

Hannover Rück SE

A+

Stable

AA-

Stable

Hiscox Insurance Company (Bermuda) Ltd

A

Stable

-

-

Lancashire Insurance Company Ltd

A

Stable

A-

Stable

MAPFRE Re, Compania de Reaseguros SA

A

Stable

A

Stable

Markel Bermuda Ltd

A

Stable

A

Stable

Munich Reinsurance Co

A+

Stable

AA-

Stable

National Indemnity Company

A++

Stable

AA+

Watch Negative

Odyssey Reinsurance Company

A

Stable

A-

Stable

Partner Reinsurance Co Ltd

A

Review Negative

A+

Negative

QBE Re (Europe) Ltd

A

Stable

A+

Stable

Renaissance Reinsurance Ltd

A+

Negative

AA-

Stable

SCOR Global P&C SE

A

Stable

A+

Positive

Sirius International Insurance Corp

A

Review Negative

A-

Negative

Swiss Reinsurance Co

A+

Stable

AA-

Stable

Transatlantic Reinsurance Co

A

Positive

A+

Stable

Validus Reinsurance Ltd

A

Stable

A

Stable

XL Re Ltd

A

Stable

A+

Stable

Source: A.M. Best, Standard & Poor’s Ratings as at August 2015

Upgrade / outlook raised since September 2014

Downgrade / outlook lowered since September 2014


19

Appendix 1: ABA Data Exhibit 33: Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015

Reporting Currency (millions)

Company

P&C Gross Premiums Written 1H 2014

P&C Gross Premiums Written 1H 2015

Change

P&C Net Premiums Earned 1H 2014

P&C Net Premiums Earned 1H 2015

Change

Listed Groups ACE

USD

10,332

10,775

4%

7,328

7,326

0%

Alleghany

USD

2,693

2,568

-5%

2,153

2,092

-3%

Allied World

USD

1,662

1,707

3%

1,068

1,215

14%

Amlin

GBP

1,891

2,008

6%

1,118

1,037

-7%

Arch

USD

2,567

2,541

-1%

1,767

1,854

5%

Argo

USD

983

1,035

5%

662

681

3%

Aspen

USD

1,635

1,642

0%

1,183

1,203

2%

Axis

USD

3,053

2,867

-6%

1,946

1,845

-5%

Beazley

USD

1,078

1,100

2%

805

858

7%

Catlin

USD

3,660

-

-

2,038

-

-

Endurance

USD

1,847

2,163

17%

878

848

-3%

Everest Re

USD

2,683

2,672

0%

2,417

2,639

9%

Fairfax

USD

3,837

4,117

7%

2,917

3,142

8%

Hannover Re

EUR

4,078

4,972

22%

3,370

3,894

16%

Hiscox

GBP

979

1,096

12%

643

710

10%

Lancashire

USD

635

424

-33%

361

298

-18%

Mapfre

EUR

8,623

9,639

12%

6,416

7,046

10%

Markel

USD

2,703

2,518

-7%

1,915

1,901

-1%

USD

513

-

-

319

-

-

Munich Re

EUR

8,478

9,002

6%

8,028

8,455

5%

PartnerRe

USD

2,719

2,522

-7%

2,034

1,948

-4%

Platinum

USD

261

-

-

251

-

-

QBE

USD

8,491

8,692

2%

6,947

6,229

-10%

RenaissanceRe

USD

1,217

1,306

7%

547

677

24%

SCOR

EUR

2,400

2,859

19%

2,059

2,450

19%

Swiss Re

USD

11,809

11,093

-6%

9,044

8,995

-1%

Validus

USD

1,668

1,846

11%

949

1,151

21%

White Mountains

USD

1,373

1,395

2%

997

1,032

3%

XL

USD

4,540

5,482

21%

2,851

3,383

19%

ABA (Listed Sector)

USD

109,075

102,759

-6%

81,562

76,375

-6%

Gen Re

USD

578

548

-5%

279

300

8%

NICO

USD

18,217

8,977

-51%

14,753

8,160

-45%

ABA (Total)

USD

127,871

112,285

-12%

96,594

84,835

-12%

Montpelier 1

Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines

20


1

P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed)

Exhibit 33: Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015 (cont’d) Calendar Year Loss Ratio 1H 2014

Loss Ratio 1H 2015

Expense Ratio 1H 2014

ACE

58.0%

58.0%

30.2%

30.0%

88.2%

88.0%

-0.2pp

Alleghany

57.6%

54.6%

31.8%

33.8%

89.4%

88.4%

-0.9pp

Allied World

55.3%

62.3%

29.8%

31.7%

85.1%

94.0%

8.8pp

Amlin

53.7%

54.6%

33.3%

36.0%

87.0%

90.6%

3.5pp

Arch

52.2%

54.7%

33.5%

34.4%

85.7%

89.1%

3.4pp

Argo

55.5%

55.0%

40.1%

39.5%

95.7%

94.5%

-1.1pp

Aspen

52.9%

55.4%

36.0%

35.8%

88.8%

91.2%

2.4pp

Axis

57.0%

59.2%

34.3%

36.1%

91.3%

95.3%

4.0pp

Beazley

51.1%

48.7%

39.0%

37.0%

90.1%

85.7%

-4.5pp

Catlin

50.6%

-

34.4%

-

85.0%

-

-

Endurance

49.7%

48.5%

35.4%

35.6%

85.0%

84.1%

-1.0pp

Everest Re

56.1%

57.3%

26.4%

26.8%

82.5%

84.1%

1.6pp

Fairfax

60.5%

59.0%

32.3%

32.6%

92.8%

91.6%

-1.2pp

Hannover Re1

69.2%

69.9%

26.1%

25.7%

95.3%

95.6%

0.3pp

3

Hiscox

38.5%

35.7%

43.5%

46.8%

82.0%

82.5%

0.5pp

Lancashire

34.5%

32.0%

36.1%

43.1%

70.6%

75.1%

4.4pp

Mapfre

67.9%

70.8%

27.8%

28.3%

95.7%

99.1%

3.4pp

Markel

60.2%

51.7%

37.7%

37.9%

97.9%

89.6%

-8.3pp

Montpelier

29.4%

-

34.4%

-

63.8%

-

-

Munich Re2

63.5%

61.8%

30.7%

31.1%

94.2%

92.8%

-1.4pp

PartnerRe

57.3%

55.8%

30.5%

30.9%

87.8%

86.7%

-1.1pp

Platinum

30.8%

-

32.7%

-

63.5%

-

-

QBE

63.1%

59.8%

33.4%

35.5%

96.5%

95.3%

-1.2pp

RenaissanceRe

25.7%

36.4%

28.5%

30.4%

54.1%

66.7%

12.6pp

SCOR

60.4%

59.3%

30.5%

31.6%

90.9%

90.9%

0.0pp

Swiss Re

56.4%

54.4%

31.2%

35.0%

87.6%

89.4%

1.8pp

Validus

33.9%

44.0%

34.6%

33.8%

68.5%

77.9%

9.4pp

White Mountains

51.4%

53.7%

35.8%

35.2%

87.2%

88.9%

1.7pp

XL

58.2%

56.8%

30.8%

32.7%

89.0%

89.5%

0.5pp

59.0%

58.7%

31.4%

32.4%

90.3%

91.1%

0.7pp

Gen Re

38.2%

62.5%

41.7%

33.7%

79.9%

96.1%

16.2pp

NICO3

84.0%

76.0%

13.1%

17.7%

97.1%

93.8%

-3.4pp

ABA (Total)

62.7%

60.4%

28.6%

31.0%

91.4%

91.3%

0.0pp

Company

Expense Ratio 1H 2015

Combined Ratio 1H 2014

Combined Ratio 1H 2015

Change

Listed Groups

ABA (Listed Sector) 3


1 Excluding funds withheld P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed) 3 As calculated by Aon Benfield Market Analysis 2


21

Exhibit 33: Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015 (cont’d) Accident Year Prior Year Reserve Adjustment 1H 2014

Company

Prior Year Reserve Adjustment 1H 2015

Prior Year Reserve Adjustment as % of NPE 1H 2014

Prior Year Reserve Accident Year Accident Year Adjustment as Combined Combined % of NPE Ratio Ratio 1H 2015 1H 2014 1H 2015

Change

Listed Groups ACE

-188

-236

2.6%

3.2%

90.8%

91.3%

0.5pp

Alleghany

-102

-96

4.7%

4.6%

94.1%

93.0%

-1.1pp

-94

-86

8.8%

7.0%

93.9%

101.0%

7.1pp

Allied World Amlin

-40

-48

3.6%

4.7%

90.6%

95.2%

4.6pp

Arch

-176

-147

9.9%

7.9%

95.6%

97.0%

1.4pp

Argo

-23

-9

3.5%

1.3%

99.2%

95.8%

-3.4pp

Aspen

-60

-59

5.1%

4.9%

93.9%

96.1%

2.2pp

-129

-121

6.6%

6.5%

98.0%

101.9%

3.9pp

-73

-75

9.1%

8.7%

99.2%

94.3%

-4.9pp

Axis Beazley Catlin

-49

-

2.4%

-

87.4%

-

-

Endurance

-105

-116

11.9%

13.7%

96.9%

97.7%

0.8pp

Everest Re

-3

-1

0.1%

0.0%

82.6%

84.1%

1.5pp

-131

-152

4.5%

4.8%

97.3%

96.5%

-0.9pp

33

-100

-1.0%

2.6%

94.3%

98.2%

3.9pp

-90

-123

14.0%

17.3%

96.0%

99.8%

3.8pp

Fairfax 1

Hannover Re Hiscox Lancashire

2

-61

-0.5%

20.6%

70.1%

95.6%

25.5pp

Mapfre

n.d.

n.d.

-

-

-

-

-

Markel

-167

-296

8.7%

15.6%

106.6%

105.2%

-1.4pp

Montpelier

-73

-

22.8%

-

86.6%

-

-

2

Munich Re

-320

-300

4.0%

3.5%

98.2%

96.4%

-1.8pp

PartnerRe

-325

-398

16.0%

20.4%

103.7%

107.1%

3.4pp

Platinum

-76

-

30.1%

-

93.6%

-

-

QBE

131

-69

-1.9%

1.1%

94.6%

96.4%

1.8pp

RenaissanceRe

-34

-55

6.2%

8.2%

60.3%

74.9%

14.6pp

SCOR

n.d.

n.d.

-

-

-

-

-

Swiss Re

-302

-360

3.3%

4.0%

90.9%

93.4%

2.4pp

Validus

-112

-154

11.8%

13.4%

80.3%

91.3%

11.0pp

White Mountains XL ABA (Listed Sector) Gen Re NICO ABA (Total)

-7

-13

0.7%

1.3%

87.9%

90.1%

2.3pp

-123

-157

4.3%

4.7%

93.4%

94.1%

0.8pp

-2,829

-3,366

3.5%

4.4%

93.8%

95.5%

1.7pp

-60

-45

21.5%

15.0%

101.5%

111.1%

9.7pp

-314

-833

2.1%

10.2%

99.3%

104.0%

4.7pp

-3,202

-4,244

3.3%

5.0%

94.7%

96.4%

1.7pp

Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines n.d. = not disclosed

22


1 Excluding funds withheld P&C reinsurance segment only (as disclosed)

2

Exhibit 33: Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015 (cont’d)

Net Investment Income 1H 2014

Net Investment Income 1H 2015

Capital Gains / Losses 1H 2014

Capital Gains / Losses 1H 2015

Total Investment Return 1H 2014

Total Investment Return 1H 2015

1,109

1,113

-177

37

932

1,150

23%

225

216

132

70

357

286

-20%

Allied World

84

87

139

25

224

112

-50%

Amlin

21

27

51

57

72

84

17%

Arch

152

188

56

46

208

234

12%

Argo

44

43

30

21

74

64

-13%

Company

Change

Listed Groups ACE Alleghany

Aspen

96

94

45

28

141

122

-13%

198

181

57

-54

254

126

-50%

Beazley

27

28

20

15

47

44

-7%

Catlin

63

-

79

-

142

-

-

Endurance

80

74

6

26

86

100

16%

Everest Re

254

248

80

-35

335

213

-36%

Fairfax

254

409

1,656

-512

1,910

-103

n.m.

Hannover Re

619

748

88

50

708

799

13%

Hiscox

20

20

9

7

29

27

-8%

Lancashire

16

20

-4

0

12

21

68%

Mapfre

964

964

107

136

1,071

1,100

3%

Markel

179

183

25

12

203

195

-4%

Axis

Montpelier

25

-

43

-

68

-

-

Munich Re1

3,370

3,613

1,189

1,567

4,559

5,180

14%

PartnerRe

247

225

308

-140

555

85

-85%

Platinum

35

-

-1

-

34

-

-

339

291

89

282

428

573

34%

85

90

42

-1

127

89

-30%

QBE RenaissanceRe SCOR

240

264

48

110

288

374

30%

2,119

1,788

509

823

2,628

2,611

-1%

Validus

51

68

113

61

163

129

-21%

White Mountains

54

47

178

42

232

89

-61%

498

401

100

9

598

410

-31%

13,422

12,109

5,586

2,933

19,009

15,042

-21%

Swiss Re1

XL ABA (Listed Sector) Gen Re NICO ABA (Total)

445

193

-35

53

410

246

-40%

2,996

3,298

1,653

1,393

4,649

4,691

1%

16,864

15,599

7,204

4,379

24,068

19,979

-17%

Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines n.m. = not meaningful

1

Reported through income statements, excluding unit-linked and with-profit business


23

Exhibit 33: Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015 (cont’d) Pre-Tax Result 1H 2014

Pre-Tax Result 1H 2015

Change

Pre-Tax Return on Equity* 1H 2014

Pre-Tax Return on Equity* 1H 2015

Change

1,739

1,886

8%

11.8%

12.8%

1.0pp

Alleghany

471

411

-13%

13.1%

10.9%

-2.3pp

Allied World

352

141

-60%

19.5%

7.6%

-11.9pp

Amlin

147

143

-3%

17.5%

16.5%

-1.0pp

Arch

402

454

13%

12.7%

12.7%

0.1pp

Argo

87

97

11%

10.9%

11.7%

0.8pp

Aspen

261

184

-29%

15.2%

10.9%

-4.4pp

Axis

364

240

-34%

12.3%

8.1%

-4.1pp

Beazley

133

155

16%

20.4%

23.0%

2.5pp

Catlin

318

-

-

16.4%

-

-

Endurance

188

198

5%

12.5%

12.2%

-0.3pp

Everest Re

717

652

-9%

19.4%

15.9%

-3.5pp

1,643

-42

n.m.

36.6%

-0.8%

-37.4pp

Hannover Re

635

741

17%

18.7%

17.9%

-0.8pp

Hiscox

125

135

8%

18.2%

18.8%

0.7pp

99

89

-10%

13.3%

13.2%

-0.2pp

Mapfre

942

815

-13%

18.3%

14.5%

-3.7pp

Markel

170

340

99%

4.9%

8.8%

3.9pp

Montpelier

147

-

-

15.4%

-

-

Munich Re

2,010

2,267

13%

14.9%

14.9%

-0.1pp

PartnerRe

716

221

-69%

20.9%

6.2%

-14.7pp

Platinum

106

-

-

12.0%

-

-

QBE

487

679

39%

9.0%

12.3%

3.3pp

RenaissanceRe

362

254

-30%

14.7%

9.4%

-5.3pp

SCOR

336

455

35%

13.3%

15.5%

2.2pp

2,486

2,850

15%

14.9%

16.4%

1.5pp

Validus

443

347

-22%

20.4%

16.7%

-3.6pp

White Mountains

222

81

-64%

9.9%

3.6%

-6.3pp

Company Listed Groups ACE

Fairfax

Lancashire

Swiss Re


-29

678

n.m.

-0.5%

10.6%

11.1pp

17,715

15,114

-15%

14.6%

12.3%

-2.3pp

468

264

-44%

7.9%

4.5%

-3.5pp

4,633

5,165

11%

9.4%

11.3%

1.8pp

22,815

20,542

-10%

12.9%

11.8%

-1.2pp


24


*Calculated by excluding the impact of net realized and unrealized investment gains/losses reported through income statements (annualized)

Exhibit 33: Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015 (cont’d) Common Net Income 1H 2014

Common Net Income 1H 2015

Change

Return on Equity* 1H 2014

Return on Equity* 1H 2015

Change

1,513

1,623

7%

10.2%

11.0%

0.7pp

Alleghany

354

308

-13%

9.9%

8.1%

-1.7pp

Allied World

329

134

-59%

18.3%

7.2%

-11.0pp

Amlin

136

133

-2%

16.3%

15.4%

-0.9pp

Arch

380

388

2%

13.5%

13.4%

-0.2pp

Argo

79

87

10%

9.9%

10.5%

0.6pp

Aspen

232

158

-32%

16.2%

11.1%

-5.1pp

Axis

328

219

-33%

12.5%

8.3%

-4.1pp

Beazley

114

133

17%

17.5%

19.8%

2.2pp

Catlin

273

-

-

16.7%

-

-

Endurance

171

176

3%

13.3%

12.5%

-0.8pp

Everest Re

584

532

-9%

16.3%

14.0%

-2.3pp

1,119

14

-99%

29.1%

0.3%

-28.8pp

Hannover Re

444

532

20%

14.5%

14.0%

-0.5pp

Hiscox

120

129

8%

17.5%

18.0%

0.6pp

Lancashire

105

93

-12%

14.2%

13.8%

-0.4pp

Mapfre

458

316

-31%

11.2%

7.1%

-4.1pp

Markel

128

282

121%

3.7%

7.4%

3.7pp

Montpelier

127

-

-

16.9%

-

-

Munich Re

1,694

1,860

10%

12.7%

12.3%

-0.4pp

PartnerRe

553

129

-77%

18.6%

4.1%

-14.4pp

Platinum

100

-

-

11.3%

-

-

QBE

392

488

24%

7.3%

8.9%

1.6pp

RenaissanceRe

272

241

-11%

15.7%

12.2%

-3.5pp

SCOR

256

327

28%

10.2%

11.2%

1.0pp

2,028

2,260

11%

12.2%

13.1%

0.9pp

Validus

316

237

-25%

16.9%

13.1%

-3.8pp

White Mountains

191

89

-54%

9.5%

4.4%

-5.1pp

Company Listed Groups ACE

Fairfax

Swiss Re


-24

951

n.m.

-0.5%

17.1%

17.5pp

14,001

12,330

-11.9%

12.2%

10.7%

-1.5pp

355

189

-47%

6.0%

3.2%

-2.8pp

4,060

4,748

17%

8.2%

10.3%

2.1pp

18,416

17,267

-6%

10.9%

10.3%

-0.5pp


*Common net income as a percentage of average common equity (annualized)


25

Exhibit 33: Results for the six months ended June 30, 2015 (cont’d) Cash and Investments FY 2014

Cash and Investments 1H 2015

Change

Shareholders’ Funds FY 2014

Shareholders’ Funds 1H 2015

Change

ACE

64,063

64,693

1%

29,587

29,555

0%

Alleghany

19,441

19,699

1%

7,473

7,642

2%

Allied World

8,539

8,913

4%

3,778

3,625

-4%

Amlin

4,564

4,261

-7%

1,783

1,680

-6%

Arch

15,741

15,441

-2%

6,130

6,138

0%

Argo

4,179

4,189

0%

1,647

1,669

1%

Aspen

8,654

8,557

-1%

3,419

3,363

-2%

14,980

14,808

-1%

5,821

5,949

2%

Beazley

4,451

4,360

-2%

1,343

1,347

0%

Catlin

9,276

-

-

3,992

-

-

Company Listed Groups

Axis

Endurance

6,720

6,617

-2%

3,185

3,303

4%

Everest Re

17,664

18,236

3%

7,451

7,727

4%

Fairfax

25,803

28,543

11%

9,526

9,967

5%

Hannover Re

52,080

55,271

6%

7,551

7,673

2%

Hiscox

3,490

3,391

-3%

1,453

1,414

-3%

Lancashire

2,343

2,299

-2%

1,357

1,333

-2%

Mapfre

48,244

45,959

-5%

9,153

8,721

-5%

Markel

18,638

18,459

-1%

7,595

7,742

2%

Montpelier

3,190

-

-

1,648

-

-

1

Munich Re

219,965

222,934

1%

30,018

30,424

1%

PartnerRe

17,988

17,492

-3%

7,049

7,080

0%

Platinum

3,398

-

-

1,738

-

-

28,597

27,916

-2%

11,030

10,949

-1%

7,269

9,678

33%

3,866

4,837

25%

25,894

27,655

7%

5,694

5,993

5%

137,355

130,445

-5%

35,930

33,303

-7%

Validus

8,409

8,639

3%

3,588

3,657

2%

White Mountains

7,802

7,712

-1%

3,996

3,975

-1%

QBE RenaissanceRe SCOR 1

Swiss Re


30,466

37,852

24%

10,034

12,247

22%

897,320

860,336

-4%

239,785

230,956

-4%

15,672

15,809

1%

11,707

11,846

1%

162,422

156,581

-4%

93,998

89,526

-5%

1,075,414

1,032,725

-4%

345,489

332,328

-4%

Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis Figures in reporting currencies, but converted to USD (millions) for ABA lines

26


1

Excluding unit-linked and with-profit business

Contacts Mike Van Slooten Head of Market Analysis—International Aon Benfield Analytics +44.207.7522.8106 mike.vanslooten@aonbenfield.com Mike McClane Head of Market Analysis—Americas Aon Benfield Analytics +1.215.751.1596 michael.mcclane@aonbenfield.com

Marie Teissier Senior Analyst Market Analysis—International Aon Benfield Analytics +44.207.7522.3951 marie.teissier@aonbenfield.com Eleanore Obst Analyst Market Analysis—International Aon Benfield Analytics +44.207.7522.3823 eleanore.obst@aonbenfield.com

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