THE PICK 4 MATRIX. By Frank R. Scatoni. (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ). 4/22/18 .... a
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/22/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO We’ve got a neat $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 sequence to close out today’s race week. There are nine races, so the Pick 4 begins in R6, with a scheduled post time of approximately 2:00 p.m. because of the early 11:30 a.m. start. Let’s finish this week strongly! LEG 1 (R6): We start things off with a marathon turf event, the 79th running of the $100K San Juan Capistrano (G3), a 14-furlong turf affair that is always a fun race. The rails are at 10-feet, but in a race this long, if you can’t get good position early, then you don’t deserve to win! #1 A RED TIE DAY (6/1) is a cool old boy who has danced a lot of dances, but his best work of late has come going shorter against much weaker competition. There was a reason Bloom Racing sold him for $32K two back, and then Jacobson was happy to lose him for $50K in his next start. New trainer Herbertson is lethal off the claim, and I suspect Baze will try to steal it from the rail, but stamina might prove elusive late in the lane. GRADE: X. #2 NESSY (6/5) looks very tough for a few reasons, the least of which is that he’s an East Coast invader gracing our friendly shores for the first time. He’s coming off two solid marathon races at Gulfstream Park, where he was chugging along in the lane, so today’s distance won’t be an issue for him at all. The only concern is if he’s too far back, as Smith has a tendency to dawdle early in turf races. Still, if this guy runs his race, it’s his to lose. GRADE: A. #3 EVO CAMPO (IRE) (4/1), the first Gallagher trainee, is a mare facing the boys, so she’ll have to prove she can hang with the opposite sex, but she’s proven at the 12-furlong trip, so I’m sure today’s extra distance won’t be much of an issue for her. She has tactical speed, and she gets in light at 119pounds, so she’s not impossible here, but she’ll have to run a career best against the less-fairer sex. GRADE: C. #4 LAZZAM (GB) (5/1), a former beaten-claimer, is in the best form of his life lately, having won two of his last three going 9-furlongs on turf. He’s never been this far, but his stretch runs (and comehome times) suggest that the added ground shouldn’t be too much of a problem, but he is unproven beyond 9-panels and against graded-stakes company, so demand value. GRADE: C. #5 PRINCIPAL BOB (20/1), the second Gallagher runner, is a one-paced grinder who looks like he can run all day, but he needed $50K maidens to graduate, and then he couldn’t win two in a row when facing starter foes last time. The waters get much deeper today, so we’ll see if this grinder can transition into the stakes ranks at this marathon distance, but class is a serious concern. GRADE: X.
#6 MOONMAN (20/1) ran a valiant third in the Tokyo City (G3) going 12-furlongs on dirt, so he showed that he can handle a long journey—but he’s seriously lacking in turf class, and that means a lot on the lawn. Blanc should have him in a good stalking position early, but he’ll need to prove he belongs at this level. GRADE: X. #7 RYE (3/1) makes the second start of his form cycle after failing to kick on in the San Luis Rey (G2), going 12-furlongs. That’s a bit of a concern, but he was facing some very tough animals in that Grade 2 event. This is a much weaker group, so he’ll have every chance to show his best stuff today— assuming he can go this far. Way back in 2016, he did win an 11-furlong race at Del Mar, so he’s proven going that far—and I’m sure Desormeaux will do his level best to get the most out of this son of English Channel. GRADE: B. LEG 2 (R7): Today’s second leg is an interesting $62.5K optional-claimer/N2X contested at 8-furlongs on the main track. I say “interesting” because we’ve got a few decent horses in here who are running for the optional-claiming tag. I always find it tricky when that happens because it’s hard to know trainer intent. #1 MULTIPLIER (4/1) takes off the blinkers after bobbling at the break last time when failing to fire while wide in the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn Park, where he was stretching out while making the second start of his form cycle. I can draw a line through that race and focus on his form from last year that saw him win the Illinois Derby (G3). I expect him to run much better against N2X company—my only concern is the trip he’s going to get with Espinoza from the rail. GRADE: A. #2 TOP OF THE GAME (3/1) looked like he was going to be a force in the handicap division last year after winning three races in a row, but once he squared off against graded-stakes foes, he turned into a pumpkin. I can forgive all of those races against tougher, but there must be a reason why Cerin is willing to lose him for $62.5K—and there must also be a reason why Kent doesn’t bother to ride back. Obviously, his best races are good enough in here—but is he capable of firing his best with so many question marks? GRADE: B. #3 CLEAR THE MINE (9/2) also runs for the $62.5K tag, since he cleared his N2X condition a long time ago but then needed $40K claimers two back to get his first win since 2016. He held on by a neck in that race and then followed it up with an even third (of four horses) in the Santana Mile. It’s tough to know where he fits in here, but he seems like a slight cut below. GRADE: X. #4 SORRY ERIK (8/1) is coming off a 274-day layoff, but Keith Desormeaux can have them ready to fire off such a long break. Even though this runner comes from humble beginnings, having broken his maiden for $40K, he turned into a solid runner once Keith claimed him for $20K more than a year ago. Keith taught him how to finish races, which is why his turf races are better than his dirt races last year. That said, he’s proven on dirt, so I’m not worried about the surface, and I love that Kent bothers to ride back for his bro off such a long layoff. As a 4-year-old, there is upside here. GRADE: A. #5 IKE WALKER (7/2) is in for the $62.5K tag after just winning for $40K in a race where the Dorf re-claimed him. He’s been solid at the $40K level, so we’ll see how he stands the raise today—but he’s already won at this level twice before, so he should run respectably today. It’s just a matter of others being a bit better than him at this point in their careers. GRADE: X. #6 LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN (6/1) stretched out for the first time last time, and he set the pace before getting overtaken by two others. He’ll learn from that experience, but two things concern me: he’s now lost lengths in the lane in his last two starts, and Prat bails. GRADE: X. #7 HORSE GREEDY (12/1) ran for a $40K tag two back and beat a nice Baffert named Lookie Loo (who came back to win) while sprinting. Forget the next race, where he was overmatched, and he’s
certainly fast enough to be competitive at this level—but his best races have come sprinting, so he seems like a horse who will end up making things tough for Law Abidin Citizen on the front end, since this guy is a stretch-out sprinter. GRADE: X. #8 HOFFENHEIM (8/1) never quite lived up to expectations, but I give him a little bit of a shot in here, since he’s run respectably twice now for Jacobson, who took him for $40K three back, and he finally gets to go two turns, which is his best game (both of his wins came at a mile). I also think he’ll get a good tracking trip in here, so it wouldn’t shock me if he ran big today. Then again, it’s Jacobson we’re dealing with, so it wouldn’t shock me if he finished last as well, since I have a hard time figuring him out! GRADE: B. LEG 3 (R8): Today’s third leg is a bottom-basement $6,250 claimer for older horses going 6-furlongs on the main track. There should be an honest pace in this sprint. #1 KRISTO (30/1) dropped to the bottom last time and ran an even sixth, failing to make a dent going 5.5-furlongs thanks to a wide journey. Maybe the added ground and inside post today will allow him to finish a little better, but the minor awards seem to be his ceiling. GRADE: X. #2 CHROMIUM (7/2) has a win at this level four back, so it’s no problem that he’s dropping to the bottom after two decent races against tougher $10K foes. He’ll be running along through the lane as the speed horses start to come back to him. GRADE: A. #3 PRIVATE PROSPECT (5/1) got a perfect pace set-up last time to flatter his late run at 5.5furlongs when he beat seven other foes at this level. He fits well in here, especially with the pace set-up again, but Quinonez will have to make sure he doesn’t leave him with too much to do. GRADE: B. #4 GIANT MARK (15/1) looked terrific three back when he ran second against Cal-bred $16K types, but he hasn’t been able to replicate that performance. He now drops to the bottom after two poor races against $12.5K foes, so maybe he’ll wake up, especially since he gets off the rail today, but he’ll need to reverse form. GRADE: C. #5 BEAR SKINNED (8/1) was 4/1 at this level last time, and a slow start from the rail meant he got going too late at that 5.5-furlong distance, where he finished third, losing by a head. The added ground today should suit his purpose if he can move forward second off a brief freshening. GRADE: B. #6 I’LL WRAP IT UP (6/1) drops to the very bottom and cuts back to a sprint after a steady diet of route races against tougher. It’s hard to know what to make of him based on those angles, but Miyadi is solid with his cut-back horses, and the class-relief should help tremendously. GRADE: A. #7 LIMITED RESPONSE (30/1) makes the third start of his form cycle and drops to the very bottom after two poor races against tougher. You could use him in the bottom slot of your super, but this career nibbler will need to show the eye of the tiger today. That said, it is a career soft spot for him if you’re a believer. GRADE: X. #8 GUY CODE (8/1) was life and death to win at this level last time when going 5.5-furlongs. He got a perfect, forwardly placed, in-the-clear trip and held on by a nose with a 5-pound weight-break. He retains that break today, but he has to go an extra half-furlong with other speed in here. Plus, he was a voided-claim out of that race, making him tough to support today. GRADE: X. #9 I B MIKE (50/1) has been well-beaten twice at this level in his last two starts, so he’ll need a major form reversal today. GRADE: X. #10 FOUR GAELS (12/1) has done solid work at this level, but he’s a speed horse who is much better at the abbreviated-sprint distances. The 7-pound weight-break will help, but the last time he
raced at this level going 6-furlongs, he attended the pace and weakened to finish fourth. A similar fate awaits methinks. GRADE: X. #11 BLAZE’N PROSPECTOR (4/1) is a tough nut to crack because he’s making his first SoCal start off a 167-day layoff, but he’s taking a massive drop in class. Jacobson claimed him two back for $35K, so it’s clearly cut bait time—so who knows what this 6-year-old will have left. That said, Conner has done good work for this barn, and if this guy is even half as fast as he was when he hit the bench, he will be very tough in here. But there’s also a chance he’s no longer competitive. GRADE: B. #12 OMDURMAN (6/1) ran second by a nose two back at this level going 5.5-furlongs, launching a nice late run. Last time, he just ran evenly against $8K foes going 6-furlongs, so he’ll appreciate getting back to the bottom. Sherlock has done good work this year, and Franco has really taken to this circuit, so the connections are solid as well. GRADE: B. LEG 4 (R9): We close out the race week with a $50K maiden-claimer for fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs down the hill. #1 DESERT APPEAL (8/1) is a first-time starter for Gaines, who is eminently patient, as is evidenced by her recent 0-for-26 first-start numbers. I’m also never crazy about when she runs a horse for a tag—since she never gives anything good away ever! GRADE: X. #2 RED SHELBY (3/1), the first Miller entrant, has a ton of speed, so that alone makes her dangerous even though her stamina has been called into question. She drops in from the MSW ranks and attracts Espinoza, who is very selective these days. She’s logical. GRADE: A. #3 LUCKY BUCKNER (12/1) debuts for Baltas, another guy who is a good trainer but who doesn’t win with debutantes too often—he’s just 4 percent over the past year. There is turf-sprint breeding here, but I think we have to watch one. GRADE: X. #4 ON A TOOT (12/1) is 0-for-3 on turf, including defeats at this level. She’s never been down the hill, however, so we’ll see how she handles this configuration with the blinkers coming off. The connections do little to inspire. GRADE: X. #5 FLUOURESCENT (10/1) was off slowly from the rail in her debut going 5.5-furlongs on dirt, yet she still managed to run on through the lane despite being well-beaten. That experience will help her greatly today—and Prat sees fit to ride for the Dorf, who does excellent work with his second-time starters. GRADE: A. #6 WARM IT UP (6/1) hasn’t been disgraced down the hill against Cal-bred MSWs. This is a lateral move in my opinion, since she’s now facing open-company, so we’ll see how she responds today after running well but fairly slowly against statebreds. She’s usable in your exotics, but I have to think someone is going to do better than she will today. GRADE: X. #7 SHEZA FACTOR (4/1), the second Miller, is a 3-year-old who showed good speed in her first try down the hill against MSWs, but she then weakened to finish seventh. She was part of a fast pace that day, so she should appreciate easier competition today, especially since she retains a 5-pound weight-break with Ceballos in the irons. That said, if she tries to run with her fast-early stablemate, she could get cooked again. GRADE: B. #8 BEAUTY DIVINE (7/2) has speed, adds blinkers, and is drawn outside the other speed—all positives. She’s also cutting back after prepping in a mile race against MSWs. She should be fit off that performance, and that is significant since her two tries down the hill saw her weaken in the lane against better. GRADE: A.
#9 MY ALCHEMIST (15/1) came off a long layoff to run a weakening fourth against $20K maidens on a wet-fast/sealed track going 5-furlongs. Now she has to try the hill and face tougher competition today. Seems like a tough ask. GRADE: X. #10 SHANGHAI TOOTSIE (12/1) is a first-time starter for Palma, who can have them ready to run at first-asking, and often at a good price. This Pennsylvania-bred cost $85K, yet she is debuting for $50K. Either Palma is trying to sneak one by the goalie or he’s hoping someone takes her for $50K. Palma is sneaky, so it wouldn’t shock me if this gal showed up today, but she is a 3-year-old facing elders in her debut. GRADE: C. SUGGESTED WAGER This is a cool sequence, so I don’t mind getting involved in the whole MATRIX here for $87, but if you want to spend less, $70 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $32 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]
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Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!
