Apr 8, 2018 - today with a solid nine-race card, featuring a deep $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4. ... claiming/N1X contest
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/8/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO After a stellar racing day yesterday for the Santa Anita Derby, we’re back with more great racing action today with a solid nine-race card, featuring a deep $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4. LEG 1 (R6): Speaking of the Santa Anita Derby, today’s first leg is also restricted to 3-year-olds—those not quite good enough to compete yesterday but still good enough to look for a win in this $75K optionalclaiming/N1X contested at a mile on the main track. There should be a decent clip in here. #1 DIA DE PAGO (4/1) is a tough nut to crack because he was competitive last year at Del Mar, running against the best juveniles in the division in sprint races. He’s been off since September, so we’ll see what kind of shape he’s in returning from a 216-day layoff. Cerin has made all of the right moves this meet, and look who shows up to ride: Prat. Still, he’ll have to do something new for the first time while facing recent sharp horses. GRADE: B. #2 JUNGLE WARFARE (12/1), the first Hollendorfer entrant, was running respectably on turf, but he needed an off-the-turf affair to finally graduate, which he did last time against four other foes going a mile on a “good” track. You have to go back to Del Mar of last year for his dirt races, which were just okay efforts while sprinting (where he was forwardly placed but was outfinished in the lane). I’m okay watching one against winners, but he could easily get a slice. GRADE: X. #3 AQUILA (4/1), who cost $685K last year, wired maidens two back, setting an easy lead and never looking back against six other foes. He then tried to attend the pace last time in the San Felipe (G2), and he weakened badly against the likes of Bolt d’Oro. He gets class-relief today, but he won’t get an easy lead, so he’ll have to show some fight in the lane. GRADE: X. #4 BLAME THE RIDER (20/1) is still a maiden whose two route races seem a cut well below the best in here. He’s a long way from earning back his $320K purchase price. GRADE: X. #5 SHIVERMETIMBERS (7/2), the second Hollendorfer runner, has tactical speed, so Connor should have him in a good spot early. He gets major class-relief today after running against Justify last time, and Lombo and McKinzie before that. His maiden-breaker was a nice effort against a next-out winner, so he’s battle-tested and should get the right trip in here. GRADE: B. #6 AX MAN (5/2) removes the blinkers after setting a fast pace and weakening in the San Vicente (G2) when he had to break from the rail going 7-furlongs. Baffert removes the hood, which is a deadly move for him, while stretching out this half to Indian Blessing for the first time. The talent is here—we’ll see if he can carry his brilliant speed a route of ground today. I’m guessing he will. GRADE: A.
#7 CALL WEST (4/1), the second Baffert runner, broke his maiden going 6.5-furlongs in a race that was taken off the turf. It’s odd that Baffert wanted this one on turf for his debut, so I’m not sure what to make of that. He’s certainly bred to handle any surface and any distance, but note that Van Dyke sides with the stablemate, while Espinoza takes the call today. He seems like he’ll be part of the early pace on the stretch-out. GRADE: C. #8 CALEXMAN (12/1), the second Cerin charge, sped to the early lead last time and then weakened while going a mile over a muddy/sealed track. His only win came on turf in wire fashion, and it’s unlikely he’ll be good enough to wire the field today. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R7): Today’s second leg is another nice allowance race, this one for older horses going 6.5-furlongs down the hill at the $40K optional-claiming/N1X level. #1 TINA’S EXCHANGE (5/1) has tactical speed, and he’ll need it from the rail. He’s run two decent seconds down the hill before, but his only win has come going 5-furlongs, so he’ll need to show more oomph today. That said, he’s making the second start of his form cycle, and D’Amato is tough to ignore over this hillside course. GRADE: B. #2 CHIEF HOSA (5/1) has a ton of early speed, so expect Roman to blast off, set a quick pace, and hope for the best. This runner just missed last time when setting a slow pace over this course before getting overtaken late to finish fourth. He’ll need to show more stick today, but his kind of speed is always dangerous down the hill, especially if no one challenges him. GRADE: B. #3 RIGOLETTO (SWI) (12/1) attracts Desormeaux, which is nice, but this guy’s two stateside races have been unexciting. His one try down the hill saw him put in a mild late bid despite getting a hot pace to close into. Expect him on the scene late if at all. GRADE: X. #4 SIR SAMSON (15/1) has tactical speed, so he should get a good trip, but he’s had good trips down the hill twice before and hasn’t been able to get the job done. He’s also been stuck at this level for a while, so he’ll need a career-best today. GRADE: X. #5 TASTE’S LEGEND (20/1) looked good when breaking his maiden down the hill last time, but he needed $50K foes to get the job done. The waters get considerably deeper today in his first try against allowance company. GRADE: X. #6 FOREST CHATTER (6/1) owned this course for a while way back in 2015, but the last two years haven’t been kind to him, and he now returns to the races off a 371-day layoff while making his first start for a new barn. While I respect Sise, there must have been a reason why Mandella was willing to lose him last year for $62.5K—and, in fact, he was a voided-claim out of that race, precipitating the long layoff. We’ll see what this 7-year-old has left, but I’ll let him beat me. GRADE: X. #7 MY MAN CHUCKLES (8/1) has two wins down the hill, so you know he likes this course—but he will have to show he can be competitive at this level since his best work has come against much lesser. That said, I like the confidence that Baltas is showing today by running him here off a $32K/N3L win in his first start for that barn. I also like that he knows how to run on through the lane over this course. GRADE: B. #8 LOVE MY BUD (15/1) has been off since December, and he returns to this spot while running for the $40K tag after going off-form. His one race down the hill at this level saw him set the pace and weaken. A similar fate awaits this 7-year-old today, methinks. GRADE: X. #9 OISEAU DE GUERRE (5/2) has shown a solid kick over this course, but he just broke his maiden, so we’ll see if it’s as effective against winners. Expect him to be rolling late. GRADE: A.
#10 SKELTON PASS (4/1) has done very good work down the hill, just missing twice at this level, finishing a close third. I like that Jacobson keeps him at this same level, and he projects to get a perfect tracking trip from this cushy outside post. GRADE: A. LEG 3 (R8): The third leg of today’s Pick 4 is a near-bottom $8K claimer for older horses going 6-furlongs on the main track. This is a pretty tricky race. #1 LIMITED RESPONSE (12/1) drops from the $10K level to this easier spot, but this deep closer will need everything to go his way. The last time he broke from the rail, the jock tried to use him early and that failed. Maybe Gonzalez will just be patient and let this 8-year-old produce one late run, which seems to be his best chance in here. GRADE: C. #2 HEIR OF STORM (6/1), the first Ruis entrant, also drops from the $10K level, where he ran a decent second, grinding away in the lane. He should be grinding away again, and the 5-pound weightbreak should definitely help. GRADE: C. #3 ADVENTUROUS (10/1) just beat $12.5K/N2L types last time with a perfect off-the-pace trip in a race that had decent early fractions. He’ll need everything to go his way, stepping up in class today. GRADE: X. #4 PS BETTIN ON YOU (20/1) has been facing much weaker competition at Los Al while running much shorter. GRADE: X. #5 LAMBO LUXX (6/1) had to be used early last time while breaking from the rail, so toss that race. Before that, he looked sharp beating $6,250 foes while going today’s distance. That said, he did have a 5-pound weight-break that day, which he loses today, and he has to step up in class. He usually runs his race, but he’s no cinch. GRADE: B. #6 OMDURMAN (3/1) came running on late to just miss by a nose against $6,250 foes last time, so we’ll see how he stands the raise today while making his first start for a new barn. Sherlock is solid with new acquisitions, but everything will need to go right for this late runner. GRADE: B. #7 PUMPKIN STAR (15/1), the second Ruis runner, is another grinder who gets a 10-pound weight-break to help his cause today after just running evenly against $16K/N3L types last time. He should run better dropping to the near-bottom, but he might also leave himself with too much to do. GRADE: C. #8 MESA SKY (4/1) has tactical speed and is drawn well, but he will have to do a bit better after failing twice now at the $6,250 level, including a defeat to Lambo Luxx. Maybe the jock change to Maragh will get him to do a bit better. GRADE: B. #9 ATOMIC ACTION (7/2) is coming off a long layoff, but his early speed should make him very dangerous today while dropping to this near-bottom level. Before he hit the shelf, he destroyed $12.5K beaten-claimers, so this seems like a good spot for his return. I also have to think he’ll be fully cranked off such a long layoff and in for this low tag. GRADE: A. #10 BARGAINING (12/1) brings speed to the proceedings, but his stamina was sorely called into question last time when he attended the pace before weakening and losing to Mesa Sky going 5.5furlongs. I don’t think the added distance will help him today, but I like the jock change and the fact that he’s drawn outside. Still, he’ll need to show more oomph in the lane today. GRADE: X. LEG 4 (R9): We close things out with a neat $25K claimer for older fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs down the hill.
#1 DEL MAR ANN (6/1) was just claimed for $40K and now shows up here for $25K while drawing the rail—two major negatives. That said, her best races are certainly good enough if you think she’ll be ready to roll for the new barn. Note that her last win did come at this $25K level. GRADE: C. #2 LITTLE BIT LOVELY (7/2) was just claimed for $32K and now shows up for $25K—again, not a good sign. But this 6-year-old mare has always done decent work down the hill, and she should be in the hunt turning for home with her tactical speed. GRADE: C. #3 NOT TOO SHINY (20/1) is an 8-year-old mare who used to do nice work over this course, but she’s not the same animal as she was last year. GRADE: X. #4 NINE POINT NINE (8/1) is winless down the hill, but they thought enough of her at one point to run her in the Mizdirection over this course. She’s coming off a June 2017 layoff, but Cerin has been spotting them well, and this is the first time this gal will be running at this low level. Plus, she has route speed that should transfer well down the hill. GRADE: A. #5 OK DOLL (6/1) is another one who has good route speed that should suit her well over this course—plus, she’s adding blinkers and attracts Prat for her first start for Yakteen. She also gets major class-relief. GRADE: B. #6 GIANT MONGOLIAN (20/1) is another one who has route speed, so she must be considered, especially since you can toss her last race, which was washed off the turf. I’m not sure where she fits class-wise, however, since her last win came at the $12.5K level, but there are some positives here. GRADE: C. #7 JOYABLE (15/1) attracts Desormeaux, so that’s a big feather in her cap, especially since he’s terrific at timing off-the-pace rides—which is exactly this deep closer’s style. She’s run well at the $25K level, but she will be at the mercy of trip and pace, as she often is. GRADE: B. #8 LORI’S ATTITUDE (5/1) just wired $40K/N2L types, setting a modest pace before drawing away to win comfortably while getting a 5-pound weight-break. It’s odd that she’s now dropping in class off that win while also losing that weight-break. I think last time was the time to have her. GRADE: C. #9 MADAME MOUSSE (15/1) makes the second start of her form cycle after a long layoff, so you can draw a line through her last start, which was washed off the turf anyway. Machowsky now adds blinkers, and this gal has always done nice work down the hill. She should run much better today. GRADE: B. #10 PEACH COVE (NZ) (4/1) has run well twice now against tougher $32K foes, so this is an eminently logical spot for her to get her first win for Jacobson, who took her for $50K three back. GRADE: A. #11 CHARMING STARLET (8/1) is an old class horse who drops to this level after an even third up north at the $32K level. She’s winless down the hill and has always been better around two turns, but she could easily wake up at today’s low level. GRADE: C. #12 GIRL DOWNSTAIRS (5/1) (AE) has been a popular claim lately, and she now drops to the $25K level after running against better animals. She’s a hard-tryer who should get a good trip in here, but do note that Eurton has been pretty chilly lately, losing with some strong-looking contenders. GRADE: B. #13 PASSIONATE EMOTION (5/1) (AE) tries the hill for the first time after failing to hang on against some decent overnight stakes foes up north. Before that, she was running well against allowance company, so there is a slight class edge here—but her course inexperience is a problem, and there must be a reason why they are risking her for $25K even though she just won for $62K up north two back. GRADE: C.
SUGGESTED WAGER This is by no means an easy sequence, but you can buy the whole MATRIX for $77.50. If you want to spend less, $64.50 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while a mere $18 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX] Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!
