Apr 20, 2018 - THE PICK 4 MATRIX. By Frank R. Scatoni. (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ)
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/20/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO No joy for us last week: we had a few chances to connect, but it wasn’t meant to be. Let’s see if we can reverse those losses in today’s $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4, which starts in today’s sixth race (with an approximate post time of 2:40 p.m.), since we’ve got a nine-race Friday card. LEG 1 (R6): Today’s first leg is a split of Race 9, so make a note of which division was more impressive going forward. This event is a $30K maiden-claimer for 3-year-olds going 5.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 CHIQUILIN (20/1) was 56/1 against $20K foes last time, and he didn’t disgrace himself, checking in fourth—but it was an even fourth, so this gelding will need to step things up today while having to break from the rail. Note that the one time he tried the $30K level, he was well-beaten. GRADE: X. #2 MAN O WORK (8/1) attended a fast pace in his debut before weakening to finish fifth, despite getting a 7-pound weight-break. He retains that weight-break today, and he should benefit from having a race under his belt. His speed makes him a threat, especially cutting back a half-furlong, but he will face some heat to his far outside. You can use him underneath at a price. GRADE: X. #3 MOON JUICE (6/1) has had plenty of chances to break through, but he’s failed six times, including twice as the favorite at the $20K level. We saw a horse like this win on Sunday, however, so I won’t dismiss him out of hand because he’s run well enough to contend here, but he’ll need to show the eye of the tiger today. GRADE: C. #4 SIERRA ECHO (4/1) was 9/5 in his debut at this same level, so someone thought he could run a little bit—and he didn’t disappoint, finishing second despite a slow start and a wide journey. Palma is solid with second-time starters, and note that Franco stays put after having ridden Moon Juice the last four times. GRADE: B. #5 AMERICAN ALL STAR (9/5) is going to be very tough in here, dropping in from the MSW ranks, where he was facing some decent horses. I’m surprised the connections are willing to cut bait so quickly, however, since this guy did run third in his debut against restricted MSWs, a race that would destroy everyone in here. Clearly, there’s a physical issue, but Callaghan is virtually unbeatable when he drops them into the MCL ranks. GRADE: A. #6 ST. SIMEON (20/1) debuts for triple-threat Paula Capestro, who bred, owns, and trains this son of Dixie Mon. The breeding isn’t worth noting, and Capestro hasn’t been known for winning with firsters, so I have to watch one. GRADE: X.
#7 TROJAN TIME (7/2) was 19/1 at this level last time, finishing fourth for Sergio Ledezma after stalking the pace in a good spot. He’ll need to move forward off that race, but he is making his first start for Eddie Truman, who is coming off a terrific Winter meet. He seems like a logical alternative to the favorite. GRADE: B. #8 NOVA (6/1) has shown sharp early speed in his last two starts while running against much tougher animals, and that’s always a positive. He’s also making the third start of his form cycle while dropping to this much more sensible level—a good old-school move for DeLeon. He will need to step up today, but he always seems to run a decent race, but he’ll need to show more oomph in the lane to beat the MSW dropper. GRADE: B. #9 EVENING REWARD (20/1) debuts for Manuel Landeros, who has been training this runner at Los Al. The sire is 3-for-9 (according to DRF), but this is the first runner out of the dam, who was a bit on the slow side herself (two wins but with a best BSF of 61). Gonzalez will have to avoid a wide journey with the short run into the turn, so I’ll watch today. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R7): Today’s second leg is a $6,250 claimer for older fillies and mares going 8-furlongs on the main track. This is a pretty desperate group, so no one is to be trusted—and what makes this race even trickier is the fact that there is so much speed in here, but the closers don’t really excite. What a grab bag! #1 I’M NO PATSY (30/1) is an 8-year-old mare who is seemingly no longer interested in racing, since she’s been pretty bad in her two starts this year. That said, she has tactical speed and is breaking from the rail, so if Gonzalez can get her to suck back and track the pace, she could get the right trip. Also note that Sierra has gotten extremely hot lately, so maybe he’ll have this gal ready for a big effort while dropping in class today—but she’s really hard to back on her current form. I’ll make her a small leap-offaith play because I dislike so many others. GRADE: C. #2 BRIARTIC GAL (8/1) was a top pick for me last time when she dropped to the $12.5K/N2L, but a wide journey from the 8-post scuppered her chances in that 8.5-furlong race. She’s drawn much better today, drops to the bottom, and gets to go a shorter distance while making the third start of her form cycle. It’s now-or-never time. GRADE: A. #3 GIFT OF A STAR (3/1) is an 8-year-old mare who drops to the bottom after failing to beat a horse last time at the $16K level despite going off at 2/1. Carava adds the blinkers, which isn’t the best move in a field that is loaded with speed, but at least this gal has shown that she can pass horses. She’s another with “it’s now-or-never” written all over her—though the presence of an 0-for-21 jock doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. GRADE: B. #4 ANITA G. (7/2) looked good beating $12.5K/N2L foes last time when going 6.5-furlongs. She stalked early and then drew off in the lane under a 5-pound bug, which she retains today. I expect Ceballos will go to the lead and hope to steal the race, but there is other speed in here, so this gal will have to earn it every step of the way—especially since she just raced six days ago. GRADE: C. #5 WHERE’S THE D (9/2) was a top pick for me last time when she ran fourth against $8K foes going 6-furlongs. Before that, she wired $8K runners going today’s distance, so seemingly she’ll be tough today, dropping in class after facing better animals. The concern here is the pace: will Sanchez be able to get her to settle a bit and not get caught up in a duel—since it’s unlikely she’ll get an easy lead to wire this field. GRADE: A. #6 VERONICA BAY (12/1) gets a dream pace set-up for her ploddy late run. This grinder, who has won a few races that have fallen apart, runs the same race no matter what the level, so you can expect
her on the scene late—which makes her a good exotics horse, but not the most inspiring win candidate. GRADE: B. #7 JILL MADDEN (8/1) has run well at the bottom level before, so she fits just fine in here, but she’s another one who likes to be part of the early pace, so Pedroza will have to avoid going too quickly in a race with several other speed/presser types. She’ll also have to reverse form over Where’s the D and Veronica Bay, both of whom have beaten her before recently. She’s not impossible, but she’ll need the right trip. GRADE: C. #8 JUST BOOKIN (5/1) has done decent work at this low level while sprinting, but now she’ll have to take her game around two turns—something she’s never done in 26 career starts, so there must be a reason why she’s only been sprinting. She should be part of the vanguard early, and she does get a 7-pound weight-break, but the route inexperience coupled with her 0-for-16 record at Santa Anita gives me serious pause. GRADE: C. #9 PACHSALITA (10/1), the second Carava runner, comes off a 70-day layoff after stalking and weakening going 5.5-furlongs, despite going off as the 2/1 favorite at this low level. In all of her two-turn races, she’s been outfinished in the lane, so she’ll need to show more stamina, especially since she’s likely to be part of the early pace—then we’ll see about her stamina late. GRADE: C. #10 FRUITY (IRE) (15/1) was just pasted at the $8K level while sprinting, so we’ll see if she wakes up on the drop while stretching out. Glatt legs up 7-pound bug-boy Espinoza for every advantage, but this 6-year-old has run pretty poorly in her three races this year (which came after a 373-day layoff). She might not be interested in racing anymore, but if she is, today would be the day to show it here at the very bottom. GRADE: C. LEG 3 (R8): The third leg of today’s Pick 4 is a competitive $40K/N2L for older runners going 6.5-furlongs down the hill. The rails are at 20-feet, and there doesn’t figure to be a super-fast clip in here, making this a tough race to size up. #1 AWESOME HEIGHTS (6/1) moved too early into a hot pace last time when racing at this level, so he ended up finishing third, losing to one of today’s foes. I’m sure C-Nak won’t make the same mistake on this guy, who has done nice work down the hill. The only issue is the dreaded one-hole. GRADE: B. #2 CURLY’S WATERFRONT (15/1) finished fourth at this level and distance three-back, where he came running on late to check in behind two of today’s foes. You can toss his two recent dirt races, but even if he runs back to his last downhill race, he’ll need to reverse form over two of these. He also got a quick clip to close into in that race—something that he won’t get today. GRADE: X. #3 DREAMS OF VALOR (6/1) has run twice down the hill, but those races weren’t any good while facing better company. Recently, he’s been facing tougher while going two turns, but he takes the drop today after finding N1X company too much. I like that he showed tactical route speed last time and is adding the blinkers today, so he could easily step forward while dropping class—but his past course performances are a little concerning. GRADE: A. #4 R CHA CHA (6/1) tries this course for the first time while moving up in class after a secondplace finish at the $25K/N2L level as a waive-claim off a 286-day layoff. I trust Baltas on the class hike and the surface switch, since this guy did run third once before while going a mile on turf, setting the pace before weakening. That kind of speed will come in handy today, as will the 5-pound weight-break. He’ll need a step forward, but as a lightly raced 4-year-old, that’s not beyond the realm of possibility. GRADE: B.
#5 GENERAL MACH FOUR (12/1) has run okay twice down the hill against starter foes, so we’ll see what he does while running at this beaten-claiming level. While those downhill races were okay, they were a little on the slow side. He now adds blinkers while making the second start of his form cycle, so seemingly he’s sitting on a peak effort. Will it be good enough? GRADE: X. #6 DR. TROUTMAN (5/1) runs for a tag for the first time, so that’s always an angle to consider— and he did break his maiden down the hill, so that’s another positive. His recent form against Cal-bred N1X foes isn’t anything special, but he should fit well here, especially since he’s making the second start of his form cycle. He’ll need to do better, but that’s certainly possible. GRADE: B. #7 IN MY SIGHT (12/1) wired $35K maiden-claimers last May at Gulfstream Park while going 6furlongs on dirt—but he hasn’t been seen since. He now has to try this course for the first time off such a long layoff—all while having prepped at Los Al. I’ll watch one, especially since he’s a waiver-claim, so I’m guessing he’ll need a start. GRADE: X. #8 CATS BLAME (6/1) came off a brief freshening to beat $50K maiden-claimers in his second try down the hill. It was a nice effort, but he got a perfect trip against a pretty weak group. Puype usually has them fully cranked for spots like that, so we’ll see if this guy can run another good race for a trainer whose “won-last-start” numbers are just blah. GRADE: C. #9 SWINGING STAR (7/2) was a top pick for me last time when he came off a 105-day layoff to run second at 4/1 at this very same level and distance. He lollygagged early before launching a very solid closing kick—but he left himself with too much to do, and he might have been a little bit short. Prat sticks around, so I expect him to time things better today. The only concern is that there won’t be as good of a pace set-up as there was last time. Still, I like the way this guy finishes races, and he does have a win over this course. GRADE: A. #10 SMUGGLER UNION (6/1) comes off a 356-day layoff, so Zucker will have to have him fully cranked while running at this level for the first time. Before this guy hit the bench, he ran a decent third against N1X types going a mile. Before that, he broke his maiden against $75K runners over this course—so he should fit nicely in here. That said, he’s a lightly raced 6-year-old, who has clearly had physical issues, so who knows how he’ll perform off such a long vacation. GRADE: B. LEG 4 (R9): We close out today’s Friday card with the second division of a $30K maiden-claimer for 3-year-olds going 5.5-furlongs on the main track. Remember that it’s a split of Race 6. #1 QUAD (12/1) has been off 320-days, and now he returns for a new barn and dropping to this level. Before he left, he had shown speed against tougher, so if he can break cleanly from the rail, perhaps he can have a say in the outcome—but that is a long layoff to overcome. GRADE: C. #2 ALTERNATE RHYTHM (9/5) was claimed for $50K after running well twice at that level, but here he is off a brief freshening and dropping in price for his first start for Miller. While that’s usually a negative, Miller does tend to spot his horses aggressively, placing them where they can easily win— especially since he’s looking for wins after serving a suspension. Ceballos and his 5-pound break can’t hurt either. GRADE: A. #3 NORTH COUNTY GUY (4/1) is another one who was just claimed for $50K, and in typical Jacobson fashion, he shows up for $30K in his first start off the December claim. His debut race as the 4/5 favorite at Los Al, where he finished second, was good enough to be a threat here, assuming he’s still a horse. GRADE: B. #4 BONAVENTURE (5/1) grinded away in his debut to finish third, outrunning his 27/1 odds—but he did have a quick pace to run at, suggesting that perhaps his running line isn’t as good as it looks on
paper. If he takes a step forward, he can be in the hunt, but he races without Lasix while being ridden by an 0-for-21 jock. GRADE: C. #5 OUR TIGER’S BOY (6/1) has plenty of early speed, and he re-adds blinkers after just giving up the ghost at 9/5 against $20K runners. In fact, he’s given up the ghost in all five of his starts, suggesting that the only way he’s going to win is if he just builds up such an insurmountable early lead and then hangs on for dear life. It’s tough to ignore his speed at this low level, but he’s certainly had his chances. GRADE: B. #6 DOHENY BEACH (50/1) has been well-beaten in all of his starts, including a drubbing at this level when he was sent off at 35/1. GRADE: X. #7 POWERFUL THIRST (10/1) was claimed for $32K back in November, and then he needed some time to make his first start as a sophomore, which came two weeks ago against Cal-bred MSWs. He didn’t do much running, but I’m sure that was just a prep for this more logical spot. He has the look of a grinder, so maybe he can contend for a slice if the race falls apart. GRADE: C. #8 GIDDYMEISTER (8/1) debuts for Aguirre, who hasn’t had too many firsters of late, but he is certainly capable of popping at a price. Note that this runner cost less than his sire’s $7,500 stud fee, so I wonder if Los Al will be a better circuit for him. GRADE: X. #9 BOHAN (8/1) is another first-time starter, but he cost $27K, so seemingly he should be a fit in here. Ryan Hanson is a perfect 1-for-1 with his debut maiden-claimers the past year, so he can have one ready. He won’t have to be much to beat these, but he will need to avoid a wide journey into that turn. GRADE: C. #10 TANDY RIDE (20/1) is also a first-time starter who has been training at Los Al for low-profile connections. I’m fine watching one. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER Today’s whole MATRIX costs $81, which isn’t bad if we catch price horses in Legs 2 and 3. If not, then we’re looking at a deflated payoff because the chalks in Legs 1 and 4 look pretty solid to me. If you want to spend less, $64 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $18 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]
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Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!
